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Old 06-05-2008, 01:02 AM   #321
Lalaith
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I'm sorry, I've got to dash off to, um, a confectioners convention today, (see admin thread) and I'm already late.

Volo would not have dreamt anything the first night, would he? So there's no point going through his posts for Seer hints?

I am still uncomfortable about Aganzir from yesterday and wish I had the time to look at her posts more closely. There was flip-flopping going on, I think. Of course, I've never played with her before so don't know her playing style.
Sorry, I would like to post more thoughts but I just don't have time.
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Old 06-05-2008, 01:07 AM   #322
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The more I read, worse phantom seems (now that I'm really focusing). Aside from the post where he blatantly insists that looking for werewolves is a fruitless activity, there's more:

Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
Shhh... don't pursue that subject any further.

You are right of course that the WWs might have been given certain... erm... directions... I don't want to be too specific here... I'd rather not have people start posting their thoughts on the matter (ie giving examples). It might be better just to watch for it, for mentioning a specific maneuver may cause the WWs not to use it, where as if we'd keep mum they might do it and then we can spot it if you see what I mean.
Here he actively discourages discussions by the villagers while admitting or even elaborating, if you will, on what the EW may have told the wolves. For example, telling a wolf to intentionally mislead the villagers or act in a cobblerish way. Especially if the EW has faith that this particular wolf would be able to bluff his way out of getting lycnhed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
First, the EW didn't actually pick his three WWs- he submitted a list of names, and three people off the list were randomly assigned to be WWs.

In addition, the "who" doesn't matter nearly so much as the "how many". If I was the EW I'd take six mediocre WWs over two brilliant ones any day. In other words the EW will simply pick people that he thinks are not likely to be scried or lynched. If he picks well then the game is his.

Sure, on one hand if he scries me then I can make all kinds of devilish suggestions etc, but if I'm a likely lynch/scry target then it isn't worth it.
In this post, phantom tries to make it seem as though the EW's werewolf choice was random, when it isn't. The list of candidates was not that long, and even if there was overlap, it's unlikely that it occured more than once. So, more faulty reasoning. Next, he states that the EW would probably pick safe wolves rather than brilliant ones, which conveniently discludes him as a candidate, a behavior I have always found suspicious. Finally, he admits that he could make devilish suggestions (such as he has been) if picked to be a wolf, but then down plays the idea as too risky. Because we all know that phantom often finds things to be to risky for his flavor. :rollseyes:


In post 91 (which is very long), he changes his story from "We should look for the EW" to:

Quote:
Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?

In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW.
A sudden shift after coming back to find that his previous statement had garnered more suspicion (and a vote). Then he posts some statistics that make seem as though it's better for an innocent to get lynched on Day 1 because it raises our chances of finding a wolf on Day 2.

Then in the same post:

Quote:
This is the point I'm trying to make on the issue of finding WWs as opposed to finding the EW. If we find the EW early, we probably win. If we don't find the EW, it doesn't matter how many WWs we find, we'll still lose.
His next post says this:

Quote:
Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.
But when the same idea is suggested against his favor, he says this:

Quote:
N...O.... NO.

Not at that stage of the game.

No way.

The goal for the EW and WWs was to not get any of their team lynched yesterday, for if they were successful it would mean likely getting an extra kill the next night and every night after that.

Day 1 was not the day to pull stunts. Absolutely not.
Then there's posting like this:

Quote:
But what does Agan think of Lommy?

And what do Rikae and Mac think about each other?
He avoids expressing opinions, but encourages others to look closely at each other, a behavior I have seen in very crafty wolves when they want to turn the village against itself while keeping out of the fray. (Anguiriel did this in my very first game, and phantom is at least as clever as he.)

Quote:
Suppose that one of our extremely busy members is actually not that busy and has been lying through their teeth on the admin thread this whole time. If that is the case then essentially this game is already over, because we simply will not find them out because of the fact that we have to rule someone out!
After all he's said in favor of finding the EW, here he insinuates that finding the EW is fairly hopeless as well. So, we can't find wolves, and we can't find the EW, according to phantom.


Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
I don't think the EW is going to tell the wolves about each other, and I don't even think that s/he's going to reveal to them. But what s/he might do, I think, is give them a shortlist of non-evil team people to frame for lynching, in order to stop them killing each other by mistake.
I'm quite certain that he did.

I had already planned to go back over today's events after the day is over and look for this precise behavior. There are a few different ways in which it could manifest itself. But naturally I'm not going to say it now.
Again, why are you so certain of this? What in past history has led you to believe that this is the way the EW will operate? There's no logic or proof behind this theory, it blatantly contradicts what you said earlier about the wolves being impossible to spot, and it can be dangerous if everyone assumes it's true if it's not. We could be led on a wild goose chase trying to figure out a supposed short list of lynchees that doesn't really exist.

Quote:
Oh, come now Roa. I haven't been unhelpful. All I've done is accurately described the situation we are in, and mixed in a bit of deliberate pessimism. Heh heh- I think you've actually seen me do that before. You didn't like it much then either, did you?
And I'm quite certain you were evil then as well.

Quote:
But I don't wish to start the lynch mob in your direction either. You're probably not a WW now, but doubtless you will be one later on. I can't imagine the EW could resist recruiting a former EW to his side.
Again, the classic wolf line of "You suspect, but I think you're just a misguided innocent" with some flattery thrown in for good measure.

Post #142- vote count

Quote:
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to catch one today. Today is one of the only chances we have of actually keeping the WWs from making an extra kill. Once they have four it will be extremely difficult to get them back down to three, so if we can keep them from getting to four tonight that would really help.

But as I pointed out before, our chances of hitting a WW while looking for the EW are probably just as good as hitting a WW while looking for a WW (at least on Day 1), and thus I do not want to lynch anyone today that people agree is not likely to have applied to be the EW.
Here he admits that catch a wolf on Day 1 is best for the village, but he would still rather only lynch possible EW's, since there's likely a wolf among them. The problem with this is that he keeps saying that bold and brilliant players are unlikely picks for wolves, and yet those are the people that apply for being the wizards. (I know, I saw the list from the last game. Phantom was one of the applicants, if I recall correctly.)

Quote:
Glad to hear it. Really, the things I've been saying all along have a huge amount of truth in them. Perhaps it is uncomfortable to hear, but you cannot pretend that I am showing the situation for anything other than exactly what it is, even if I am doing it in a fatalistic manner. It ought to at least help everyone make sure their priorities are in order.
The bolded portion made me laugh out loud. Really, almost nothing you've said is correct. Try a very small kernel of truth with a whole lot of misdirection piled on top.

Then there's another vote count followed by:

[quote]Out of those that have votes thus far, I certainly do not wish to lynch myself.

morm.... nah. Not now.

Roa, Izzy, and Cailin- definitely not now.

So that leaves Sally and Brin.

Quote:
Out of those that have votes thus far, I certainly do not wish to lynch myself.

morm.... nah. Not now.

Roa, Izzy, and Cailin- definitely not now.

So that leaves Sally and Brin.

Unfortunately I haven't played much with either one and I haven't had time to go back and reread this thread to look for things, so I really can't say if I suspect them or not. Certainly I'd prefer them to the others at this time.
Here, he rules people out without any explanation, suggest two possible votees for himself, all of which is drawn from the current vote count. He also doesn't truly suspect either of the two people he's thinking of voting for. Then he suggests voting for the no shows (Di and Nilp). Multiple people formed solid suspicion yesterDay, yet he seems unable to do so.

His next post states that there are 17 votes left, and so anyone could get lynched, yet he still continues to take his candidates from the vote count, not even trying to find someone suspicious. For all his talk of voting for the EW candidates, he never lists who those might be, and doesn't even bother to express suspicion in anyone's direction. (Possibly because he is a wolf, and as he's stated, he doesn't want to lynch his fellows by accident. Maybe all this talk of a lynch list from the EW is an attempt to get the EW to send one.)

Quote:
Ha ha ha!

I'm not a WW, Eonwe. Yes, no doubt the EW would like to have me on the team at some point, but not at the start!
The classic "I'm not a werewolf" line followed by downplaying the idea of the EW picking a cavalier wolf. The light attitude he keeps using towards everyone who suspects him seems terribly forced to me, as though he's diliberately trying to not be jumpy.

Quote:
I'm too likely to be scried by the GW, dreamed of by the Seer, or lynched early for doing something crazy.
Restating all the reasons others have doubted his guilt, which of course are not very good reasons. As Lhuna said, everyone thinking that makes a very good choice indeed.

Quote:
But once past the opening couple days- that is when you'd want to convert me.

If I was a WW I would show up mid-day and try not to rock the boat too much on Day 1. Wouldn't you?
Since when has phantom ever tried to "not rock the boat," ever?

Post #174- vote count, and again suggesting that he vote for someone who's already been voted, and picks Nerwen, whom he's stated has been in top five list of possible wizards (which he never had the courtesy to post.) Note that Nerwen was the other person besides myself to seriously suspect him, but didn't go after him as much as I did. It occurs to me that he is the one who really started fan the flames towards the innocent Nerwen.

Post #177- tells how many votes are left

Post #184- Considers McCaber's vote for Nerwen odd, but isn't certain (how unexpected :rollseyes

Post #191- He asks Lommy what she thinks of Agan. He never states an opinion himself.

post #197- more vote count. That's four now. Ever hear of the wolf that kept posting a vote count in order to look like he was actually doing but wasn't really? Like when he hasn't actually expressed suspicion, just theories, and avoids stating an actual opinion except to pander?

#216- vote count. That's five!

then he wonders about who hasn't voted besides himself.

#237- vote count. That's six!

And that what he did yesterDay. You have already seen what he's done today, and my responses to him.

Oh yeah, I'm convinced he's a wolf. Not the EW. I think he's angry because he realizes the EW may try to sacrifice him, and that goes against what he thinks is wise. So, I won't be able to get on for the rest of the day except possibly briefly at lunch, and then I won't have enough time to read through everything and be effective. So:

++phantom

I didn't actually mean for this to be an analysis... I guess I just can't help myself.
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Last edited by Roa_Aoife; 06-05-2008 at 01:13 AM. Reason: fixed a quote
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Old 06-05-2008, 01:18 AM   #323
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I'm sorry, I miscounted. phantom posted eight vote counts, not six. Good night and good luck, and hopefully, I'll be alive to help you on Day 3.
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Old 06-05-2008, 01:37 AM   #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin
Hmm...now that you know he's the seer, you totally know how he feels...
Well, I suspected Aganzir yesterDay before Volo was a known innocent and I still suspect her toDay. I see nothing wrong with using a known innocent's quote to support my feelings about another player. Of course, Volo could easily be wrong with her, but as I do suspect Aganzir I think he may be onto something...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ka
I'm still sizing her motives now, but so far she seems her usual self, or just more open.
Usual self? But Aganzir's usual self could just as easily be evil. After all, she's been evil in almost half of the games she's played...

Okay, it looks like Roa just made a one mile long post. I admit I've only skimmed through it so far, but I'll re-read to see if I can get any opinions from it. So far it seems she makes a strong argument against phantom, but I don't think she's said much about anyone else. Mommy dearest, as determined as you are to lynch tp, do you have thoughts on others as well? I'm just curious...

Alright, off to read that giant of a post more thoroughly...
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Old 06-05-2008, 01:51 AM   #325
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Page 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
Sally and Gwath's votes both made me fairly uneasy, though for different reasons. Sally's, like someone said, looked a bit too easy. Gwath's I don't like because voting without stating any reasons for the choice is both unhelpful (if having suspicions about someone, one should at least reason them a bit if he really wants that one lynched) and irritating and never fails to make me suspicious.
I agree, especially about Gwath. Suspicious vote, that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
I disagree. Even though the degree of randomness is a bit smaller than usual, there are too many different possibilities for speculating to be of any use - it's still waste of time. And just speculating on things like that instead of talking about people benefits only the evil team.
How can my dear mother Cailin be suspected for being speculative? Given most of us know practically nothing at this point, speculating is about one of the very few things we can do.

Eonwe's first post: Okay, that was really weird. Misplaced. This isn't an RPG, not even an RPG-style game. Why anyone would spend time and effort crafting such a post instead of arguing with someone or repeating obvious points or indulging in far-fetched speculation is beyond me. It almost makes me suspicious of myself for finding it suspicious.

He's either a bored innocent, a clueless innocent, or a wolf wanting to make his presence known but not wanting to give us something to chew on about himself. I don't think the EW would ask him to do that, though - that would be silly.

Leggie is really so sensible, I can almost feel the fur. (Gone are the days when sensibility meant innocence. )

Durelin becomes even more dodgy. Says so much yet says absolutely nothing. And how dare you call my phantom 'dear,' you wretched twin of mine!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leggie, to Lommy
I don't like this that much. Not sure why, but following someone with a suspicion like that... my dear sally does not seem suspicious in any way, she is behaving like she's always, and also she simply voted and that's it. Nothing weird there.
Whoa, protective boyfriend! But the EW wouldn't protect his wolf this openly, so no, I still think you're just a wolf. Maybe trying to protect an innocent to gain innocent points. Oh, right, she's your girlfriend.

Page 3 summary: My 'suspicious' list now includes Mac, Leggie, Dury (it was always like this, sally), (speaking of whom) sally, and Gwath to a lesser degree.

This is incredibly time-consuming and probably won't do it for the next pages - at least not like this. But at this point I have quite enough willingness to vote for Mac (more likely) or Legate (less likely).
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:04 AM   #326
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Read and done. Some thoughts:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Quote:
Originally Posted by tp
First, the EW didn't actually pick his three WWs- he submitted a list of names, and three people off the list were randomly assigned to be WWs.
In this post, phantom tries to make it seem as though the EW's werewolf choice was random, when it isn't. The list of candidates was not that long, and even if there was overlap, it's unlikely that it occured more than once.
I never liked how phantom said the EW didn't pick the wolves because in a way, that's not true. As I said yesterDay:
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
And yes I know the EW didn't specifically choose the wolves last Night. But they did make a list...therefore each person on that list was chosen for some reason to be considered for a wolf. Anyone who is a wolf is one because of the EW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tp
Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?
Goodness...I never noticed that quote before. Thanks for pointing it out, Roa. Flip-flopping always causes me to raise an eyebrow, especially after there's been increasing pressure placed on the flip-flopper.

Okay, this weird thought suddenly popped into my head: Would it be characteristic of the EW to instruct a werewolf to intentionally not vote? Hmm...though that's probably too much of a stretch...
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:05 AM   #327
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Eye

Decided I'd check the thread one last time before hitting the pillow, and what do I find?

Roa- you are nuts.

Either you're a WW who has been given directions to get me lynched, or you simply are trying to prove something to yourself by taking me on.

Your post is ridiculous. It's full of misinterpretations, terrible assumptions, and out and out lies.

I'm going to tear your post up like a piece of paper. Everyone pay close attention. If you follow her lead after I'm done going over her post, then you are purposefully being wrong or are really easy to manipulate.

Post coming in a few minutes. I'll answer every single question raised.
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:12 AM   #328
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tp
Post coming in a few minutes. I'll answer every single question raised.
Oh good, I look forward to seeing it.

I'll be honest- I enjoy observing this whole phantom vs. Roa that's been going on (it's like a duel, but not really). And by the end of the Day once my head's done exploding, perhaps I'll be able to get some real insight. Now wouldn't it be funny if both of them were wizards...
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:19 AM   #329
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Rikae has joined the ranks of those who want to go after werewolves and not the EW, which makes her slightly suspicious, at least from my point of view.
Oh, Mac, you are sooo getting my vote toDay. Unless something unexpected happens. Which should happen shortly, as I'm voting soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sally, post #144
*hates her lack of participation*
This is weird. If you check the replies list, she has one of the most posts to this thread. If she still feels she isn't helping much despite that fact, she probably knows she isn't - but why point it out? It feels wolvish to me, like she's trying to get some sympathy for admitting that she can't do something that she doesn't really want to do (i.e. be useful).

To add to suspicious list:
-Eonwe
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom
That's what I'm doing. Or rather, I'm trying to encourage lots of reactions/talking/etc that I can look at and digest after the day is over and then start hunting Wolves.
Is that before or after you've killed them?

Anyway, I've been quite suspicious of his motives the whole time, so:
And he proceeds to vote for him. Lame reasoning, really. If there was any reasoning at all.

-McCaber for being submarine

Be back later, with a vote.
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:37 AM   #330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Aside from the post where he blatantly insists that looking for werewolves is a fruitless activity
You are of course referring to this post. ("Bah! Why bother...")

The point of that post was, to anyone with any amount of understanding, quite clear. I was pointing out that we don't truly have normal WWs in this village because they don't know each other. Therefore normal means of WW hunting cannot be used.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Shhh... don't pursue that subject any further.

You are right of course that the WWs might have been given certain... erm... directions... I don't want to be too specific here... I'd rather not have people start posting their thoughts on the matter (ie giving examples). It might be better just to watch for it, for mentioning a specific maneuver may cause the WWs not to use it, where as if we'd keep mum they might do it and then we can spot it if you see what I mean.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Here he actively discourages discussions by the villagers while admitting or even elaborating, if you will, on what the EW may have told the wolves. For example, telling a wolf to intentionally mislead the villagers or act in a cobblerish way. Especially if the EW has faith that this particular wolf would be able to bluff his way out of getting lycnhed.
Of course I'm discouraging discussions about the subject! Because if you say "Let's be on the lookout for this specific WW behavior" the WWs obviously AREN'T GOING TO DO IT THEN!

Duh!

It's not always the right time to open your mouth and discuss something. And you ought to know that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
First, the EW didn't actually pick his three WWs- he submitted a list of names, and three people off the list were randomly assigned to be WWs.

In addition, the "who" doesn't matter nearly so much as the "how many". If I was the EW I'd take six mediocre WWs over two brilliant ones any day. In other words the EW will simply pick people that he thinks are not likely to be scried or lynched. If he picks well then the game is his.

Sure, on one hand if he scries me then I can make all kinds of devilish suggestions etc, but if I'm a likely lynch/scry target then it isn't worth it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
In this post, phantom tries to make it seem as though the EW's werewolf choice was random, when it isn't.
No I didn't! You are completely and totally twisting that quote. I specifically said "three people off the list were randomly assigned". So no, I never implied that the choice was random. I said that there was a list. My point was simply that the EW did not get to specifically pick his three WWs.
Quote:
Next, he states that the EW would probably pick safe wolves rather than brilliant ones
Well, that's kind of obvious isn't it?

"Hee hee, I'm the EW, and I'm going to pick WWs that are going to get lynched! Aren't I smart?"

Come on, Roa. There is absolutely nothing at all fishy about believing that the EW would want WWs likely to survive. You are reeeeeeaally grasping here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?

In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
A sudden shift after coming back to find that his previous statement had garnered more suspicion (and a vote).
How is it a shift? I'm still holding to my guns that the EW is more important than anything else. I'm just trying to get the ones who are overly concerned about WWs on board with me, trying to get them to realize that even trying to gun for the EW they stand just as good a chance of hitting a WW since no one has any clue who one is anyway on Day 1.

Once again you are grasping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Then he posts some statistics that make seem as though it's better for an innocent to get lynched on Day 1 because it raises our chances of finding a wolf on Day 2.
Okay. Now you are just plain off your rocker.

Here is the post that she is referring to, everyone. Read it. Please, I'm begging you, someone tell me where, at any point, it says anything about it being a good idea to lynch an innocent. All that it is is statistics for the first two days. Nothing more.

And duh, of course if you lynch an innocent you are going to have a higher chance of hitting a WW the next day. Everyone knows that, and I don't think anyone in this entire village is silly enough to think that that fact somehow makes it better to lynch an innocent. Your point makes absolutely no sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
But when the same idea is suggested against his favor, he says this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
N...O.... NO. etc....
My comment to Lommy was just so I could say "throwing the wolf to the lambs". If you would've quoted the whole post you would've seen that I draw attention to it on the very next line.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.

Ha ha... throwing the wolf to the lambs...
Moving on...
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
But what does Agan think of Lommy?

And what do Rikae and Mac think about each other?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
He avoids expressing opinions, but encourages others to look closely at each other
Oh, please... you are really being thick now. I suppose you can't think of any possible reason why I'd ask Lommy and Agan about each other, or Mac and Rikae about each other.

Oh yeah, that's right- they know each other in real life!
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Suppose that one of our extremely busy members is actually not that busy and has been lying through their teeth on the admin thread this whole time. If that is the case then essentially this game is already over, because we simply will not find them out because of the fact that we have to rule someone out!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
After all he's said in favor of finding the EW, here he insinuates that finding the EW is fairly hopeless as well.
You are way out of bounds now- taking quotes completely and totally out of context.

The full post can be found here.

As can be clearly seen, I am discussing how to go about finding the EW. I make a point that we must begin somewhere, and that stated RL constraints is the logical starting point. But I add that if the EW has been out and out lying about availability on the Admin thread (which I personally think is unsporting) that they have basically won the game already (through dubious means in my opinion).

How is that saying that finding the EW is hopeless? I'm trying to put forth strategies to look for him!

So what you are saying is a complete and utter lie.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
So, we can't find wolves, and we can't find the EW, according to phantom.
Another lie.

In post # 37 (which you even quoted) I quite plainly say that there might be ways of spotting WWs. And later I say this- "I'm trying to encourage lots of reactions/talking/etc that I can look at and digest after the day is over and then start hunting Wolves." So I obviously think we can find WWs. And I stated that I had a list of top Wizard candidates, so obviously I think we can find the EW.

Which means you are lying about me.

And then you said this about my EW safe-list idea-
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Again, why are you so certain of this? What in past history has led you to believe that this is the way the EW will operate?
I believe it because it would be a logical thing to do! Give the WWs a couple of safe candidates to ensure that your odds are high of surviving the first day! It makes sense! You may think I'm a little too sure of it, but sorry, that's the way I am. If something looks like a great idea I just assume people will do it. So sue me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
it blatantly contradicts what you said earlier about the wolves being impossible to spot
Once again, a lie. I never said WWs were "impossible to spot".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Me
But I don't wish to start the lynch mob in your direction either. You're probably not a WW now, but doubtless you will be one later on. I can't imagine the EW could resist recruiting a former EW to his side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Again, the classic wolf line of "You suspect, but I think you're just a misguided innocent" with some flattery thrown in for good measure.
This is not evidence. You are taking a statement that could be said by an innocent or a WW and trying to make it prove something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to catch one today. Today is one of the only chances we have of actually keeping the WWs from making an extra kill. Once they have four it will be extremely difficult to get them back down to three, so if we can keep them from getting to four tonight that would really help.

But as I pointed out before, our chances of hitting a WW while looking for the EW are probably just as good as hitting a WW while looking for a WW (at least on Day 1), and thus I do not want to lynch anyone today that people agree is not likely to have applied to be the EW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Here he admits that catch a wolf on Day 1 is best for the village, but he would still rather only lynch possible EW's, since there's likely a wolf among them. The problem with this is that he keeps saying that bold and brilliant players are unlikely picks for wolves, and yet those are the people that apply for being the wizards.
What do you mean, "admits" that it would be best to catch a WW? I never said otherwise. Of course it's best to catch a WW.

Only the "bold and brilliant" apply to be the Wizard? What about quiet and brilliant, or sneaky and brilliant, or wise and careful, or bold and crazy... I don't recall that Nog ever had personality requirements. There is potential overlap between Wizard candidates and WW candidates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Glad to hear it. Really, the things I've been saying all along have a huge amount of truth in them. Perhaps it is uncomfortable to hear, but you cannot pretend that I am showing the situation for anything other than exactly what it is, even if I am doing it in a fatalistic manner. It ought to at least help everyone make sure their priorities are in order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
The bolded portion made me laugh out loud. Really, almost nothing you've said is correct. Try a very small kernel of truth with a whole lot of misdirection piled on top.
Whatever. You are the one who has been caught out and out lying. My statistics were accurate. My statements about the rules were accurate. My statements about likely outcomes were accurate. You can say they weren't correct till you're blue in the face, but that doesn't make it so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
suggest two possible votees for himself, all of which is drawn from the current vote count
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
yet he still continues to take his candidates from the vote count
Okay, you are being deliberately dense now.

Of course I was only considering candidates who already had votes. I was IN THE LEAD!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
For all his talk of voting for the EW candidates, he never lists who those might be
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
and picks Nerwen, whom he's stated has been in top five list of possible wizards (which he never had the courtesy to post.)
Um, I almost don't want to respond to this because it's so silly.

Can anyone think of a reason not to post a list of Wizard candidates?

Oh, that's right, because the GW would be on it too!!

And if you have any faith at all in your list, you'd realize that by posting it you might just be helping the EW to find the GW that much quicker!

Yeesh... I'm surprised you haven't asked me to post a list of who I think the Ranger is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
and doesn't even bother to express suspicion in anyone's direction
Oh, yes, because yesterday we had so much to go off of for determining guilt and such. *rolls eyes yet again*

Today we do have something to go off of, and if you look back I come out with suspicions don't I, so all this business about me not stating suspicions holds zero water.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
The classic "I'm not a werewolf" line followed by downplaying the idea of the EW picking a cavalier wolf. The light attitude he keeps using towards everyone who suspects him seems terribly forced to me, as though he's diliberately trying to not be jumpy.
You just think that because you're trying to paint me as a WW. If someone thinks I'm innocent then my reactions look just fine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
But once past the opening couple days- that is when you'd want to convert me.

If I was a WW I would show up mid-day and try not to rock the boat too much on Day 1. Wouldn't you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Since when has phantom ever tried to "not rock the boat," ever?
I think we can agree that there are different degrees of "rocking the boat", and different ways in which it can be done for Wolvish purposes.

And as far as me constantly posting a vote count- it was kind of important to me seeing as I was on the chopping block.

In addition someone actually thanked me for it and so I just continued doing it.

What, you are suspecting me for doing something helpful?

Anyway, to sum everything up, this was one of the worst put together attacks on me I've ever seen, full of gaping holes, misquotes, and completely false conclusions that directly contradict text that is there for everyone to see.

If you are innocent Roa, please put aside your pride and reread this post with an open mind and see the logic within it.

Though it's getting tougher and tougher to believe that you are innocent after that. It was just so incredibly wrong. More wrong than I think an innocent Roa is capable of being.
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Old 06-05-2008, 02:56 AM   #331
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I am just popping in to say that I'm here.. for a few more minutes as I skim what has occured since Night. It is almost 2am here.. and attempting to digest the information and come up with coherent thoughts.. is a bit out of the question.

Though I do have a few comments.. the almost complete page of utter silliness - is borderline suspicious.

I don't believe anything happened Night 1 - save for the GW and EW picking their first minions/members.

Speculating on whom Volo could've dreamt last night - well we won't ever know the results of that dream in the duration of this game. Unless of course the GW is the one whom gets the results. So it might be informative on whom he may or may not of dreamt - but ultimately how much will that help us?

We are going into toNight with four wolves, even if we manage to bag ourselves one in the Execution.. another one will most likely just popup in it's place. Again leaving us with two kills during the Night.

The number of vote counts/tallies.. nothing changes from one to the next for all of the ones done toDay.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:04 AM   #332
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Sting

Please, stop posting for a while, so that I can post for up-to-date, okay? I have refreshed when I started to read the last page, but that must be a long time ago... I wonder if the next age won't be up by the time I finish... Whatever.

Like my first post yesterDay, this is noted down (actually, yesterDay I FIRST read it all and THEN replied to the already marked quotes, but whatver) during the course of reading and immediately replied on what I had something to say to. So, here we go:


Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
1) What's with the Lommy-Agan thing? Surely there's something to it?

6) I think Sally was probably innocent yesterday.
1) Not necessarily.

6) That's very well phrased. I would like to point out here that whoever was innocent yesterday, may not be so today, and the same goes for Gifted. Really, at this stage of the game, it is not much about us, but mainly about the GW and the Gifted.

Heh, is it just me or is TP somewhat more cheery today - has he been scried for a Wolf? (the question would be, if not for the other side...)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
My grandpappy and my sister in one night?! Someone is obviously out to get my family...
If it's not you, sis...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
Legate & yesterday's voting. If that wasn't suspicious, nothing is.

"I want to jump the bandwagon as there's even a chance she'd be lynched (and she suspects me) and now I must explain it to everybody so as not to look I was indeed just jumping in the bandwagon!"
My thoughts when voting were nothing more than what I posted (i.e. that schizophrenia). But whatever...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin View Post
So stop mentioning ____ and making ____ feel he is at the center of attention.
Hey, that's an intriguing idea. Let's make it seem like he is nothing more than air. (Huh... but what if he is the EW? Then it will be up to the GW to scry him. Okay, GW, scry him and we'll ignore him... but wait this will do exactly what he wants... and being scried, he would become a Gifted, if not... hey... but... NOW... SERIOUSLY! An idea just struck me... what if he is the EW and trying to disguise himself from scrying by being so vocal and annoying with his "scry me, scry me"?!???!)


Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
My question about the voting is this- did the WWs or EW even have to bother worrying about anything?
Good point, because I think they didn't. However the way you are posting this makes me feel like you are too forceful in suggesting something. So while I agree on that, I don't know, the feeling from you... is simply worse than yesterDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
It seems like someone wants to clip the Volo family tree from the root up! I'm the only gaffer left now...
Speaking of that... don't you think someone may be just "roleplaying"? At least on the first Night, I would think, there wasn't many concrete things for the Wolves, resp. EW to choose from... you know, like, they could technically target whomever they wish.

Di is... whatever. Let me use the too common phrase: "I'll be watching her" - which, in this village of the size of a smaller suburb of New York, means a lot!!!

Nilp, your sig popping at me in the middle of the thread irritates me - if at least it weren't boldened...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
Why are they killing off my family?!?!?! First Nogrod, then Nerwen, then Volo and Kitanna! Hide yourselves, Legate and Brinn! Quickly!
Of course, mum, what do you think I am trying to do... *takes a sheep from the herd* I hope the Wolves haven't read Odyssey...

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
(And Legate darling, by the way, you best explain your little bit of flipflopping yesterday, voting Agan and yet not wanting her killed. Acting like that could get you lynched, and you know I wouldn't want that)
Sally, my dear, you only should look at what I said there. I really did not know what would happen and did not have time to think it over. Thinking of that, I could have taken tp's lazy-relaxing stance and just not vote at all - but that's a habit from the WW games, the obligation to actually vote; so I did. It did not matter in the end anyway, not?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
I'm not sure what to make of this killing all in one family thing. One far-fetched theory I can contrive is that the wolves probably come mostly from the Greenie line (not to suspect Greenie herself of anything), and are killing off the Volo line because killing their own will reduce their connections and make it more likely for them to be lynched. But then it was already learned from history that placing all eggs in one basket (gifteds/wolves in one family) is a bad idea, and it would be rather odd for the present EW to do as the past GW did. Hmm.
I don't think so, cf. above what I said about the possibility of "roleplaying". Even now, let's consider this: even if all the wolves were from the green line, sorry, Greenie line, they most probably just post their ideas to the EW and he/she picks one of them, or goes with some idea of her own. And there will be surely a space for someone to kill even in the Greenie family. But mainly, this was Night 1. Or 2, actually. Whatever. And that is, I think, as I said above, that it did not matter much whom they pick - they had very much of a free hand, at least now.

(Phantom in reply to Lhuna about him being a Wizard)
Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
Now that would possibly be even more fun than switching sides! More pressure and all, but still fun no doubt. So much power... mwu ha ha ha!!

Hmm... Let's think here... if I am indeed a Wizard and your finger-pointing leads the other Wizard to discover me... well, that seems almost suicidal on your part, cause you know I'd feel like killing you then.

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).
Ieee. Judging from this, TP could very well actually BE a Wizard. The latter paragraphs make it seem as if he was somewhat... nervous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond18 View Post
Hnuh? But the Good Wizard did Scry hin on Night 1, right? If he didn't get to then dream, what's the point? It's like getting a badge that says I'm A Seer, Ask Me How but not getting to actually be the Seer yet.
I wonder if, according to the rules, Volo got the chance to dream on Night 2? (will someone verify it in the rules? Please please, I am too lazy now ) So I think he HAD one dream, only he did not much enjoy it himself (that's to you questioning his usefulness).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
You know, I'm really curious about all these people who say, "Phantom can't be a wolf- he's too noisy/loud/obvious/whatever." Since when has NOT been that way, wolf or not? But I have seen him as both, and I've seen him take a real leadership role and really help out the village... when he's a good guy. I've seen him be loud and distracting and post erroneously... when he's a bad guy. Phantom is nothing if not bold, no matter what role he has.

And I'll add this- last Dueling Wizard's game, I looked at phantom with two options: wolf or dead. I erred on the side of caution and picked dead. I don't believe this EW is the same. And phantom's posting thus far had really convinced me that he is not on the villagers' side, whatever his role may be.
Now... err... what to make of that... let's say, I think, that if Roa is evil (EW/wolf), she may as well be going after tp, who, in this case, will be a goodie/ordo.

But that's just one idea. It is "what if", a condition that would have to be fulfilled, i.e. her being a baddie, or him being a goodie - and we could start to think further from that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
I gave continuous reasons for believing phantom to be a baddie. I backed up with posts and reasoning. Sally did not. Her vote appeared almost random. I am not like some people *coughMaccough* who only distrust people who don't agree with them. I don't care if you agree with me or not. If you don't have good reasoning, or your reasoning is clearly faulty, I will suspect you. It's as simple as that. I'm not convinced that Sally truly thought phantom was guilty, or that she wasn't trying to start something in that direction.
Hm, hm... Roa seems logical and genuine here. Very genuine. Arr, but I know she is clever enough to *seem* so if she wishes; what more, if she is a Wolf, she may actually BE genuine (especially if the EW did not tell them who she is or who the other Wolves are; and even if she would do things like give them a list of people to go after, as it has been mentioned before, then Roa would surely find between themselves a person with "faulty reasoning" - and bingo) - following a certain pattern of behavior is a good way for a Wolf to cover himself with, as we all know even from normal games.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
the phantom is a relatively easy lynch target. I mean, if I had my way, I would have him lynched now just to be sure of his allegiance. This is one reason I think he might be a wizard, because he posts as if he has nothing to lose by getting himself lynched. (But hmm, the same could be said of some ordinary villagers.)

But then, the EW might have assumed he would not be lynched because
1. the villagers would think as I thought
2. the phantom is just so much fun to be around

and turned him into a wolf. Tada! Instant protection.
I was thinking exactly along the same lines lately. But... well, who knows.

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Honestly, you're sort of right. I'm not used to Phantom's behavior, and from anyone else it would scream "vote me vote me" so I did. I didn't expect him to get lynched (and at the moment I'm happy he didn't; if nothing else he's entertaining) but of the people whose posts I had time to look at, he looked the most suspicious at the time. I'll try to be more careful with my votes in the future though.
Hey, but this is very weird. Somewhat troubling. My dear, are you SURE you do not have sinister intentions here? This is really like a wolfy-style excuse. I don't like that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin View Post
Volo openly agreed with Lommy (and we know now he was the seer, yeah, whatever),
Yeah, whatever, so why mention it, as we know he couldn't even know anything? Let us remember that he didn't, otherwise we may be mislead, like, I believe it was Di on the page before? Yes, it was her.

People, it's nice to read, but post at least shorter posts, like the ones before 299... that was so nice and smooth and fast to read!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
I feel kinda stupid for asking this, but what exactly do you mean by "submarine-like"? Maybe you've already explained this, but with six pages of Day 1 I'm bound to miss something...
(...)
I think I missed this post yesterDay, but it's a good quote on how I also feel about Aganzir. Especially about the bantering...what Volo wrote here is how I feel but was unable to put into exact words.
Ad submarine: I thought about it already yesterDay, and I think she means "under the radar"-fly... er, swimming.

But what you say to Volo's post... I don't know why, I don't feel it's genuine. Odd, but today I am growing more attentive of you, sis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
It's already annoying to me. I won't lie, that was part of the reason behind my vote. Most of it, though, was the simple fact that even if Phantom is innocent, he doesn't seem to be helping very much. I wonder (assuming he's a wolf) if the EW didn't tell him to draw as much attention from everyone as he can... it certainly seems to be a possibility, given that most of the recent discussion has revolved around him.
No, that's a thing I don't believe. Besides, cf. what I said above - these posts are at least short to read... : )

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
No, the two are not mutually exclusive, especially if you are both wolves who don't know each other, or Sally is wolf who doesn't realize you are the EW, or she's the EW and she just wants to kill you to look good (as I did with Nogrod in the previous DW). So, once again, you post faulty logic in an attempt to clear yourself.

And how many times have we seen the "I know you suspect me, but I think your just a mistaken innocent," line from a wolf trying to not appear overly defensive?
Roa really goes after the phantom (oh really? What a discover I made here! I'm sure no one of you noticed that before). I outlined something above... But really... not all too sure what to think of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka View Post
While I cannot be completely certain that this was the case this time, I'm going to find it a bit hard to place suspicion on him simply for first-day indecisiveness (world knows I'm 'guilty' of it as well, take Legate's last WW for an example. I don't even think I voted the first day because I hadn't a clue).
Hey, hey, hey, but YOU were a WOLF back there!!! JUST A MO...!!!
What, are you trying to signalize to me, trying to pick a fellow wolf? Bad guess, miss! I am not one! ARE YOU???

Besides, there's something in your post... all the calculating about which wolves would the EW save for later or whatever it was... and your kind-of backing on Celuien... which look odd to me. (The question is, if it would make sense for a wolf to behave in this backing-way in such a big village where nobody may as well care [at least for now], unless Cel were made a wolf overnight - or you, for that matter [and she were a wolf already from before] - or unless, err, and I forgot what I wanted to say. Great. Later, maybe.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife View Post
Also, I don't know why you are so certain that the EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine. The GW did something like that for the entire village, but only after his role had been revealed. In fact, I even encouraged my wolves to lynch as they liked. Someone acts suspiciously? Lynch them! It makes the wolves harder to trace because they aren't having to lie about their suspicions.
Right, that was just what I said about you and your "I will lynch whomever I see unreasonable" thing above.

Oh my, Tp, I don't mind you posting baseless and silly posts, as long as they are short, but your most annoying posts are the frequent ones when they are long. Shut up already and let the rest of us talk :P

Besides, your "statistic" remind me of tgwbs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cailín View Post
So they got a Seer. Bad luck? Or something more? I suppose the evil team were trying to guess who the gifteds were -- considering who a wizard might choose, and also perhaps any subtle hints within their words. I'm not sure what these would be but let's have a look. (Mind you, it's also likely wolves wouldn't want a kill that leads back to them).

Volo

#9 role-playing

#55 madness, madness! and dangerous, dangerous! Funny stuff from Volo, but could it be interpreted as a sign?

#84 Numerous vague suspicions: Green, sally, phantom, Celuien, Cailin.

#85 Mentions his typo ''We Wolves''. Maybe mind is stretching too much here but could that be interpreted in a different way?

#114 Nothing really

#128 Chastises Lalaith somewhat

#133 Questions Legate

#150 Suspects Aganzir, but also agrees with Aganzir in suspecting Legate

#154 Defends phantom

#159 Questions Eonwe

#163, 173 Nothing of note

#194 Speculation about wizard choices (and #201 I suppose)

#209 Votes Aganzir

(Plus 3 other joke posts)
But WHY would Volo give out any signs? He had no dream yet, and unless he were in the danger of being lynched or something, there was no need for him to give hints about his personality. Unless the Gifteds were not informed of each other's identities... but then... well, it could have been, but would he really wish to contact the others? A Seer, I would think, would not do so... although Volo might. : D

Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
Anyway, it's almost 2 and I have to get up early for work. I'll try and check in then but I won't really be able to post much till around lunch time (6 hours before the deadline).
Thank Eru! ; ) : D

NOOOO! THERE IS ANOTHER PAGE ALREADY!!!

AND A LONG ONE, TOO!!! NOOO!!! (It must have been there already when I refreshed! AAARGH!!!)

I AM GOING TO POST. NOW. I HAVE ENOUGH OF YOU.

The thoughts on Page 9 coming up after this. Hopefully.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:11 AM   #333
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Sorry that took up so much space, Legate. The whole thing is probably a bore to read and is simply a distraction and doesn't help us find WWs or the EW one little bit. But I just couldn't allow Roa to get away with posting an attack that contained a dozen or more blatant misinterpretations and flimsy accusations. I've literally never seen anything like it, and I hope I never do again.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:22 AM   #334
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Well, I suspected Aganzir yesterDay before Volo was a known innocent and I still suspect her toDay. I see nothing wrong with using a known innocent's quote to support my feelings about another player. Of course, Volo could easily be wrong with her, but as I do suspect Aganzir I think he may be onto something...


Mommy dearest, as determined as you are to lynch tp, do you have thoughts on others as well? I'm just curious...
Explanation... but is it genuine? I said before, sis, I am starting to wonder about your intentions. Don't you know anything about our father's, sister's and grandfather's deaths?

Although what you say to Mom has its value. Mom, don't get too fixed on one person...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
Eonwe's first post: Okay, that was really weird. Misplaced. This isn't an RPG, not even an RPG-style game. Why anyone would spend time and effort crafting such a post instead of arguing with someone or repeating obvious points or indulging in far-fetched speculation is beyond me. It almost makes me suspicious of myself for finding it suspicious.

He's either a bored innocent, a clueless innocent, or a wolf wanting to make his presence known but not wanting to give us something to chew on about himself. I don't think the EW would ask him to do that, though - that would be silly.
This is normal. I remember people who used to do that, simply because they came late, saw a thread full of posts, posted a poem and only then did something else. Although, I don't deny that other things about Eönwë, like his voting, which has been questioned before, are odd (in contrary to this).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Goodness...I never noticed that quote before. Thanks for pointing it out, Roa. Flip-flopping always causes me to raise an eyebrow, especially after there's been increasing pressure placed on the flip-flopper.
Again! It seems so nice-ish that it really makes me wonder (...tum, tum, tum... and it makes me wonder... Ooooh yeah yeah...)

Sorry mum, I think I'm gonna make our family even thinner toDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
Post coming in a few minutes. I'll answer every single question raised.
Nooo! Not again... I thought he's sleeping already... someone hit him overhead... one doesn't have to wonder then that there is one page more...

Hooray! It's my post already! Fantastic! (now will refresh... "loading, please wait")

Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
Sorry that took up so much space, Legate. The whole thing is probably a bore to read and is simply a distraction and doesn't help us find WWs or the EW one little bit. But I just couldn't allow Roa to get away with posting an attack that contained a dozen or more blatant misinterpretations and flimsy accusations. I've literally never seen anything like it, and I hope I never do again.
It's okay. And good, it was only my post there (sorry for its length, but I tried my best, and then, it's just one post... so you have it all together in one place, with this one).

I'm going to re-read the Roa-phantom arguments since the bottom of page 8 separately, really not in the mood for that, and it's internal between the two of them.

Yippiee! Caught up.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:25 AM   #335
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And just a minor note on my participation toDay. I will be around for about an hour for now and try to keep up-to-date. Then I should be away and get back about three hours before the DL. I hope it's gonna be readable (i.e. possible to read until the DL). Hmm... I would like to look at Brinn's posts maybe... all right, whatever.
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:41 AM   #336
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Oh. My. God.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Fantome
You know good and well that the GW has been thinking about me more than anyone thus far.
And who would think of the phantom more than anyone?

the phantom.


I so called it.

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Old 06-05-2008, 03:44 AM   #337
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Aye, I know that there's probably not a lot to gain from looking at Volo and Kitanna's posts. I had thought that it might be favourable to Aganzir and Mormegil but then I realised the wolves probably won't be a cohesive team.

This Roa/phantom spat seems more than likely two proud ordos going at it. Everyone try not to get too focused on that.

Lhuna makes a fair bit of sense to me. Clever girl, always proud of her...
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Old 06-05-2008, 03:56 AM   #338
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
I was pointing out that we don't truly have normal WWs in this village because they don't know each other. Therefore normal means of WW hunting cannot be used.
I disagree. Just because the wolves don't know each other doesn't mean we can find them by normal means. You can't exactly base a suspicion off one player compared to their connections to another player until you have at least one known wolf in a typical game. So how do we catch the first wolf typically? We lynch based on what we deem as suspicious behaviour. And that's how we should play now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
How is it a shift? I'm still holding to my guns that the EW is more important than anything else. I'm just trying to get the ones who are overly concerned about WWs on board with me, trying to get them to realize that even trying to gun for the EW they stand just as good a chance of hitting a WW since no one has any clue who one is anyway on Day 1.
Okay, I accept that explanation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by phantom
Oh, please... you are really being thick now. I suppose you can't think of any possible reason why I'd ask Lommy and Agan about each other, or Mac and Rikae about each other.

Oh yeah, that's right- they know each other in real life!
But I don't think they're opinions of one another should matter anymore than anyone else's. Just because they know each other in RL doesn't always mean they'll have better judgements.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
If it's not you, sis...
Or you!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
People, it's nice to read, but post at least shorter posts, like the ones before 299... that was so nice and smooth and fast to read!
Funny you say that 'lil bro as your post is rather lengthy itself...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Thank Eru! ; ) : D

NOOOO! THERE IS ANOTHER PAGE ALREADY!!!

AND A LONG ONE, TOO!!! NOOO!!! (It must have been there already when I refreshed! AAARGH!!!)

I AM GOING TO POST. NOW. I HAVE ENOUGH OF YOU.
*chuckles* You must be just as slow of a poster as me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Again! It seems so nice-ish that it really makes me wonder
So, suddenly being nice equals wolf?
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:01 AM   #339
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Huh. It took me well past an hour to read through toDay's posts alone.

First of all, the phantom irritates me. He seems to play for himself and not for the village (or the wolves, for that matter). I, like many others, don't like the way he draws attention to himself. The thing is, I have no idea what he might be. One possibility is that he applied to be a wizard but didn't get the role, and now is just frustrated and therefore acts in his egoistic manner. One thing above others troubles me in him, and that's the fact that he keeps threatening people. The Lhuna thing I could have passed, but consider this one:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tp
If you want to continue suspecting me, Roa, go ahead, but please let this particular issue go. I literally find it insulting that someone would think I would make a decision like that- pass up several nights of free kills for a completely unnecessary stunt. So help me but if you continue on this I might just try and get you lynched despite the fact that I think you're probably innocent.
Now what the heck is this about? "If you go on suspecting me, I'll have you lynched even though I think you are innocent!" ?

Other than that, I don't like the casting of random or unreasoned votes yesterDay and not explaining them. I'd still like an explanation from Gwath as I voted him yesterDay because of his suspicious behaviour, a great part of which was his completely unreasoned vote.

Roa puzzles me. I think she's been speaking very much sense in her earlier posts toDay (especially 314 and 319), but I'm slightly worried about her concentrating on one person only.

I'll be back later, I've got to go now - reading through the thread took me much more time than I anticipated.


EDIT: x-ed with Lhuna, Cailín and Brinn
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:11 AM   #340
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BRINNIEL YESTERDAY (sounds like a newspaper title):

#18
Some starting banter, quite usual. Only, I want to point out - already here starts some pattern which follows Brinn all the game. Things like "ooh my head hurts of all those possibilities what can happen overnight". "Ooh thanks Roa for pointing it out". "Ooh I am so nice and confused". The question is - and I can't answer it now - whether it's innocentish behavior for her or not.

#49
Says quite plainly "so we know there AREN'T connections between the wolves", however finishing the sentence with more vague "as they probably don't know of each other". Then she says we should look for connection between EW and the Wolves (how, may I ask?).

Otherwise, makes sense... this is just to question.

#170
Some problem with Nerwen who kind of accused her... mentions some people, more or less saying thigs I believe logical... mentioning both Volo (that his slip "we wolves" has no value) and Kitanna (saying to think her innocentish). This itself, particularly in this game, does not mean anything...

Only, kind of odd is her excusing of morm's vote for herself, or how it should be said. "He voted me, but I can understand him..." Hmph.

Already mentions Aganzir as one she does not like the most; in the end she will indeed vote for her.

#176
Worries about spreading the voting. Ha, ha, ha...

#195
Continues going through her opinions on different people. Seems undecisive still, somewhat.

#211
Mentions Aganzir as possibility for an EW, but (rightfully, I think) says this is no time to discuss on Wizards (it was short before DL); mentions bandwagons as dangerous, is particularly worried about Nerwen bandwagon appearing out of the blue.

#222
Votes Aganzir.

#232
Wonders about my "to vote or not to vote"... Understandable.

#235
Replies to Dury who asked her why all of sudden vote Aganzir, by saying she wanted to vote her before, which is true.

BRINNIEL TODAY (this sounds like a newspaper name):

#245
Voting list...

Doesn't like bandwagons... thinks Volo and Kitanna were killed for not being suspicious...

#275
This is where it actually starts to seem a little weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
I already mentioned my thoughts on Cailin and I do think she's a bit suspicious. And it doesn't help now that Nerwen's been proven innocent.
It doesn't help, but it should not make it worse as well - it you said yesterday that the wolves don't know each other, so they should have as much chance to lynch an innocent as the ordos do, not?

#300
That thing with Volo I mentioned above... Though after I read through all, it does not look THAT bad... I don't know. It may be that Brinn just found a nice formulation on which grounds to suspect Aganzir, what more, to base it on the thoughts of a known Seer... but... then, would a Wolf act like that? Shielding herself with a Seer? Seeriously? Isn't it kinda too... obvious? Hm. Rationally, I am inclined to think this less sinister than I thought at first. Though on the basis of the feelings, there's still something in the post which does not sit well with me.

Besides that, in her posts she mentions votes she does think suspicious or odd, nothing that much strange on that.

#324
Replies to Durelin... who apparently keeps questioning her (this is for the second time! Cf. above the thing about Brinn's vote). This question is concerning her quote about Volo, more or less the thing I said about that. Brinn replies in the way I would expect, and that is normal. Then talks to Roa not to focus solely on phantom...

#326
Thoughts on Roa-phantom debate. Again, the "thanks Roa..." thing I mentioned before. Saying what she doesn't like about tp. And then, asking if the EW could not instruct the Wolves not to vote, which she immediately discards.

#328
Mentions watching the phantom-Roa thing.

All in all, Brinn:

1) Seems indecisive yesterDay, but more confident toDay.
2) Does not look as bad as I thought. The things are just minor and the only ones.
3) Otherwise, she looks reasonable and I can relate to, or at least understand lot of what she has to say.
4) I am letting her down on my suspicious list.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:24 AM   #341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
Funny you say that 'lil bro as your post is rather lengthy itself...
Hey, I already apologized for that, but, like I said, it's one post which sums up all the lengthy posts before me

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
So, suddenly being nice equals wolf?
No, but trying to appear too nice could. Which is what I meant by it.

But when I already have you here, I see you again mentioned the thing that the wolves probably don't know each other in your last post - I would like you to answer then my question I outlined while going through your posts: concerning the only one of your posts I quoted, #275. So what did you think back then? If the wolves don't know each other, is there any difference if the one who voted Nerwen was a Wolf or not?

LG... seems to go with the usual patterns of things, sort of "going with the crowd". In fact all she says has been here before... which of course in a village like this is not to wonder... but I would like to see more of her (words which bear great danger, especially in this situation!).
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:26 AM   #342
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Only a short post since I must soon be off.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
There's no need for the Seer to drop hints and such, or even indicate that he knows anything about anyone, for his dreams will survive him with the GW.
True, but the GW cannot reveal them to the village while remaining hidden herself. It would make sense that the seer left some hints, at least if he has dreamt of a wolf. I suppose naming people known innocents might be too risky.
But this doesn't really matter right now as Volo didn't get a dream on night 1, which also means that my theory of him finding Legate a baddie is not valid. I couldn't find it in the rules if he got a dream last night or not, but in this case it doesn't really matter as the GW was able to dream herself anyway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by THE Ka View Post
While I cannot be completely certain that this was the case this time, I'm going to find it a bit hard to place suspicion on him simply for first-day indecisiveness.
I agree with you here. I know I'm probably contradicting myself now, but his vote is one of those easy, suspicious things a wolf would love to accuse of *coughBrinncough* (though that doesn't make him innocent, especially as we don't know if the wolves know one another).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ka
If I was out harvesting likely wolves to act in my best interest I'd definately pick Agan because she's a natural, but not immediately because it is likely there would be suspicion. I'd rather save my best wolf for last, when everyone's gotten, scryed, etc. to the point where thinking someone is an actual wolf is old news.
Thanks. I am flattered.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
How can my dear mother Cailin be suspected for being speculative? Given most of us know practically nothing at this point, speculating is about one of the very few things we can do..
Maybe it's just differences in personal playing styles, but to me speculating means rather "talking something that's not really necessary and wasting time". I am aware that we have to start from somewhere, but even halfway through day 1 there should be other topics to be found.
I suppose I just like to keep things more simple than many others, but finding the wolves & the EW should be more important than endlessly discussing possible tactics.

I think Eönwë isn't really that suspicious. This is his first game (as far as I know Eonwe has played earlier, but Eönwë hasn't), and his vote really looks more like newbie-ish than wolfish. Personally I doubt the EW would pick a newbie wolf, but then again no one usually wants to lynch the newbies right in the beginning, and people are also otherwise more willing to forgive newbies if they do something weird, so I can't say I'm sure. But I would let Eönwë live for a while now.

Ok must go now, I'll be back and elaborate on Brinn & Lommy later.

edit: xed with Greenie and two Legates
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:41 AM   #343
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Okay, now my head aches. And you just lynched our healer yesterDay. Thanks a lot, guys. She hasn't even taught me how to heal headaches yet.

Maybe getting off the computer will help. But before I leave:

++MACALAURE

About the phantom-Roa row, heaven forbid we're looking at an EW and a wolf going at each other as planned! Because Roa, I deeply appreciate all your input as the former EW, but I wouldn't put it past you to be offering your thoughts to us and doing completely different things. You can pull that off. And you did do some serious misinterpretation of some of the phantom's posts.

But right now I'm quite convinced that you're both innocent, just both unfortunately having strong personalities. Now it's about time the village turns its eyes elsewhere.
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:46 AM   #344
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Hm hm hmm... All right folks, like I said, I am going now... and will be back some three hours before DL. I hope not longer! In any case, see you before the DL.

Good luck to the good side... and whoever is on that side at the moment. Stay sharp!
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Old 06-05-2008, 04:58 AM   #345
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phantom, what are you doing still up? ...Or rather...were (you're last post was sometime ago, so I'm sure you're in bed now). But still you last posted after 3am (and that's my time). Wait a minute...what am I doing still up? It's almost 5am. Curse you WW!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Says quite plainly "so we know there AREN'T connections between the wolves", however finishing the sentence with more vague "as they probably don't know of each other". Then she says we should look for connection between EW and the Wolves (how, may I ask?).
I think I already answered this in that same post, but anyway... We look for a connection between wolves and the EW by lynching a wolf, then analysing reasons why an EW would scry that player and who that possibly could be. That's the best way I can think of doing it...other than by suspicious behaviour.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
It doesn't help, but it should not make it worse as well - it you said yesterday that the wolves don't know each other, so they should have as much chance to lynch an innocent as the ordos do, not?
You're right...I wasn't thinking about that when I wrote it. My bad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
I know I'm probably contradicting myself now, but his vote is one of those easy, suspicious things a wolf would love to accuse of *coughBrinncough*
Huh, why me? And you are talking about Legate, right?

It's obviously very late so I should get to bed...

Some last quick thoughts:

I still find Aganzir suspicious..

YesterDay I thought Cailin was suspicious, but I honestly haven't looked too much at toDay's posts.

I'm still baffled by the Roa/phantom row...

People I want to take a closer look at tomorrow: Mac, Legate, Durelin, Cailin. Of course that can change seeing as their will be most certainly a large flood of posts by the time I return.

I would like to see the people who vote randomly or bandwagoned with little or no explanation explain themselves...

I think that's all for now. I'll try to get up a little earlier tomorrow, but no guarantee...I just can't wake up to my alarm anymore.
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Old 06-05-2008, 05:11 AM   #346
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3 new pages already?? There's not way I can read all that with due diligence.

The death of Volo is tragic, but at least he can be replaced and his dreams aren't lost. Why the evil team picked Kitanna is beyond me. I was thinking she'd be a good candidate to be added to the evil team last Night.

The Nerwen bandwaggon yesterDay was ridiculous and deserves some special attention - later, along with thoughts on Volo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa
Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them.
Maybe. However, killing gifteds has only limited effect in this stage of the game. Unless the evil team is incredibly lucky and gets at least two with their three opportunities, a suspected gifted is merely replaced by one they don't know about. The only benefit is that it's uncomfortable to the GW to perpetually change his team, and that the baddies might find clues about other gifteds from the dead one's posts. If I was evil, I would keep suspected gifteds around, because they're easier to kill off after the duel, when they cannot be replaced anymore, than unsuspected ones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin
I am almost positive Eonwe has played before.
Eonwe has, Eönwë hasn't.


Now, Lhuna...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
This suspicion makes me quite suspicious of him. It's too...stretchy.
This suspicion makes me quite suspicious of her. It's too...vague.

Seriously, you say I'm in your red zone etc., but you don't say how what I said led you to put me there. You only give a quote and label it suspicious without any further explanation. Be plainer, please. The only thing I did yesterday that I'm aware of that it could see as suspicious was that I overdid the questioning of Legate. Other than that, your thought process stumps me.

I also don't like your comment on Eönwë. It's everybody's right to dislike RPGy posts, but to suspect somebody for a joking first post goes too far, especially since we're talking about his first game here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
People, it's nice to read, but post at least shorter posts
I'm sorry, but this has to be the quote of the Day.

I would like to add that I skipped the entire argument between Roa and tp, considering it utterly pointless.
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Old 06-05-2008, 05:23 AM   #347
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I'm such a weak-willed wimp. So much for goodbye.

Okay, so why do I find Mac suspicious?

First of all, and this really gets to me, you said you wouldn't be suspicious of anyone who agreed with Roa, with whom you disagreed. And when I re-read yesterDay's posts you did quite the opposite. Really, that's quite unfair, suspecting people just because you disagree with them.

That quoted post involving Leggie stands out because it gives me the strong feeling of you trying to get into someone's good side (by thanking him for agreeing with you and offering apologies for disagreeing with him).

And three, which will be the most nonsensical of all to you, I think you're a wonderful wolf choice. If it flatters you any, which might be a bit of consolation. That might be random, but I kind of trust to thinking like the EW to help me decide who I think are wolvish, even if I wouldn't go so far as to post a list.

I know that with more than a score of people in this game I could pick just anyone for my vote (and I had a suspicion list), but you were the one who stood out most to me for some reason. It's partly gut feel. Can never do without it.

Anyway, I promised I will be getting off the computer, and so I will. Sadly, this is the last you will hear from me toDay. Stupid timezones (I miss saying that).
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Old 06-05-2008, 05:30 AM   #348
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Oh, one last thing.

I didn't know when I first mentioned Eönwë that this is his first game.

(Random note: Wow, Eonwe was my husband in the previous DWW game! )

That said, I didn't completely suspect him: I considered the possibility of him being a bored or lost ordo. I started to actually suspect him for his reasoning behind voting for the phantom. (But now I think I'll give him a bit of slack, because he chose an intimidating game to test the Werewolf waters. But then again, that would make him a good wolf choice. Goodness, this game is making me crazy.)

Truly, ta-ta for now.
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Old 06-05-2008, 05:33 AM   #349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
First of all, and this really gets to me, you said you wouldn't be suspicious of anyone who agreed with Roa, with whom you disagreed. And when I re-read yesterDay's posts you did quite the opposite. Really, that's quite unfair, suspecting people just because you disagree with them.
Point taken. :|

Quote:
And three, which will be the most nonsensical of all to you, I think you're a wonderful wolf choice. If it flatters you any, which might be a bit of consolation. That might be random, but I kind of trust to thinking like the EW to help me decide who I think are wolvish, even if I wouldn't go so far as to post a list.

I know that with more than a score of people in this game I could pick just anyone for my vote (and I had a suspicion list), but you were the one who stood out most to me for some reason. It's partly gut feel. Can never do without it.
Well, I can't argue against that. You would've made me less suspicious if you had said it was mostly gut feel right away. One thing you have to keep in mind, though, is that most people that would make "good wolves" also make good gifteds. Sure, lynching gifteds is a lot less of a problem in this game, but I'd still like to try to avoid it. It's tempting to concentrate on only "good wolves", but it will make us lose in the end, because Evil will simply triumph with "bad wolves" then.
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Old 06-05-2008, 06:09 AM   #350
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I'm a wolf, lynch me, kthxbye.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Brinn - A "submarine" is somebody who is easy to overlook, altough in morm's case, I meant more somebody who is hard to figure out, even late in the game. It's a term someone (Noggie, I think) coined in a previous game, and I liked it.

I don't have much to say at this point, but I dislike this feud between my son and sister. If there isn't evil behind it somewhere, it could hardly help the baddies more if there were - two of our strongest players are focusing solely on each other, and both of them are behaving unreasonably, as far as I can see.

A couple of other thoughts - Mac always suspects those who disagree with him (shamefully), so I don't find that suspicious in itself. One think I do find suspicious is attempts to build up cases with little behind them, though - and it's even more suspicious now, when the wolves may be trying to lynch those the EW told them to target. I've noticed a few people doing this -posts where I could just hear the EW in the background saying "go after so-and-so today." I'll come back to it later.

Legate feels off, and I get the feeling he is trying to appear that way, somehow. I don't think he would do that innocently.

That's it for now.
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Old 06-05-2008, 07:04 AM   #351
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Pipe Whee!

I got to irritate at least one person here - my work is done.

I've been thinking about the NIGHT's kill, and I came up with this notion: The Dark Side fears killing the Hunter above all.

Think about it: they have four Wolves now (=2 kills/NIGHT), and with the absence of double lynching, we could kill only a maximum of one Wolf per DAY. So, even if we get one lupine pelt today, with a successful EW-scry, they would still have 2 kills.

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

So I've looked at the posts of the NIGHT's victim, checked whom they suspected, decided that they are probably innocent.

Kitanna voted for morm, and suspected . . . well, no-one else.

Volo voted for Agan; suspected Legate, Greenie, Sally (mildly), tp (at first) Celuien, and Cailín; and defended tp and Agan (at first).

So morm, Agan, and Legate are probably innocent. (Or they are controlled by a very bold EW--or perhaps even one of them is! But I'll stick with what I said first.) Greenie, Sally-poo, and tp are less so.

I kept thinking along the same lines and came up with another thing: Since they can maintain 2 kills/NIGHT from this point on (so long as they don't stumble upon a Hunter that knows his job), the EW could tell the Wolves the identity of their fellows (well, perhaps not all). Since there's no double lynching, even a reformed Wolf with knowledge of two (or even three) cannot damage the Dark Side all that much, since the EW can replace the Wolf lost to lynching . . .

(If the EW is confident that all of her minions will survive DAY 1, she could even have them talking from the start!)

I have to vote soon, so I have to find someone to vote for. *sigh*
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Old 06-05-2008, 07:17 AM   #352
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The Nerwen-waggon:

There's some talk about her on page 3, but with only Durelin and Cailin finding her suspicious. On page 4, Lalaith mentions concerns.

On page 5, Cailin starts the waggon, at a time when it was not obvious that it would take off. Her pointing out that it's not a retribution vote raises my eyebrow, though. phantom starts directing people towards voting for Nerwen, on the sole reason that she's a possible wizard. McCaber chucks in his vote. If TP and MC are in cahoots, this would have been too glaringly obvious, so I don't think so. Both, however, look bad on their own. Lalaith adds her vote. Aganzir mentions she doesn't understand the waggon. Durelin adds her vote. Lommy mentions concerns about it, agreeing with Agan. Volo and Brinniel are against it, too. Legate starts his fence-sitting on the matter.

Page 6: Diamond chucks her vote in, and I don't know what to think of it. Legate decides against it. Aganzir votes her to save herself.

phantom indeed looks like the EW here, but would he really play like this if he was a wizard?
I will pay more attention to Di and McCaber. Lalaith, too.
I don't agree with what Cailin and Durelin said about Nerwen, but at least their votes make sense.
The dissuaders, Aganzir, Lommy, and Brinniel look good, but since evildoers like looking good, it doesn't automatically point towards innocence.
I don't know what to do with Legate.


Volo:

Without a seer dream, and with probably only very limited knowledge given from the GW, I doubt Volo was killed because he somehow revealed himself, unless the evil team thought his "we" slip meant something. I think he was involved and therefore inconvenient. He was mostly trusted, but and apparently the EW didn't see him as a future wolf. I wonder how much the EW dictated his wolves and how much he let them make their own decision. The ones Volo was most inconvenient to are Aganzir and Legate. Both had more dangerous opponents yesterday, but if the evil team was looking for a common denominator, Volo could have been it. Legate's suspicion of Volo is half-hearted, which I think is at least slightly suspicious.

I have the nagging feeling I'm interpreting too much into this...


PS: Both Volo and Nerwen have their names in their signatures, which makes searching for their posts very convenient, because I didn't have to scroll down after finding a post.
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Old 06-05-2008, 07:31 AM   #353
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I forgot to add Aganzir's reaction to Volo yesterday. It basically comes down to one "". I also noticed that Aganzir was very laid back about Lommy's accusations until rather late in the Day. It gives me a little bit of the feeling of a baddie trying to not put any unnecessary spotlight onto the points others give against her.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Mac always suspects those who disagree with him (shamefully), so I don't find that suspicious in itself.
Eh? I know I have a reputation for auto-trusting those who agree with me, but I don't think I always mistrust those who disagree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilp
Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.
I agree about the evil team's fear of the hunter, especially since the GW can give him all information about dreamt of wolves (high hunter success rate!). I just wanted to add that they also fear that a wolf is taken away by the GW's scry.

It's funny that we have similar ideas, but reach completely different conclusions.

There was no seer dream yet, and the hunter doesn't necessarily pursue the same people at day and night, so I don't think the risk was very high - this early.
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Old 06-05-2008, 07:56 AM   #354
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Eye

Just checking in for a couple of minutes...

I'm liking Nilp right now. Keep him alive I say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green
Now what the heck is this about? "If you go on suspecting me, I'll have you lynched even though I think you are innocent!" ?
Great, now everyone is misquoting me.

I don't say I'll lynch her for suspecting me. As a matter of fact I tell her to "go ahead" and continue suspecting me. I said I'd want to lynch her if she didn't let that one particular issue go.

I'm fine with people suspecting me and even voting for me, so long as they do it for good reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhuna
And who would think of the phantom more than anyone?

the phantom.

I so called it.
*grin* I love you, Lhuna.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brin
But I don't think they're opinions of one another should matter anymore than anyone else's. Just because they know each other in RL doesn't always mean they'll have better judgements.
Maybe, but the fact is it was helpful to me to ask. If I wouldn't have I never would've known that Agan would actually love to be a Wizard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brin
So how do we catch the first wolf typically?
Quite often luck.

Sometimes with a Seer dream or Hunter's hunt.

The couple times I've spotted one, it was only because they made lists that I suspected they were trying to hide their fellow WWs on (thus the connections were extremely important to me). As a matter of fact, in Lommy and Nog's WerePenguin game that is how I grew to be suspicious of 2 WWs on the very first day.

Anyway, I've got to run off to work. I'm late!

I'll be back in about four hours.
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:04 AM   #355
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This is great! We have the phantom and Roa, going at it like two dogs over the last bone. My gut feeling and based upon the skim reading I've done (I knew it would be this way the first day or two...there is just too much posting for me to detail everything out) is that they are both innocent and attacking each other. I still can't shake the feeling I've got about Brinniel and will likely revote for her today. Although nothing conclusive can be drawn from Volo yesterday it is intersting to note his view on Agan.
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:07 AM   #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Hey, hey, hey, but YOU were a WOLF back there!!! JUST A MO...!!!
What, are you trying to signalize to me, trying to pick a fellow wolf? Bad guess, miss! I am not one! ARE YOU???
I think we have games mixed up. I’m referring to when you were a mod of the gladiator-like game (where three of us at a time would compete, then the game would revert back to a normal ‘village’ setup), y’know, “Taliesin of Nothing”. I was a protector, and unfortunately a very obvious one not only to wolves, but others spotted as well.
Now, in the fellowship-setup, yes I was a very bad wizard, but I felt like mother theresa all the same and to everyone else (except maybe Nogrod).

Quote:
Usual self? But Aganzir's usual self could just as easily be evil. After all, she's been evil in almost half of the games she's played...
True, but I’m looking very closely for something to pop out. She has varying degrees of evilness. I can’t explain it exactly, but I usually can tell whether she’s a gifted at least vs. ordo or wolf. This time I’m not very sure she is gifted necessarily, so it’s either the other two (then again, Agan have you been an ordo before? I don’t think in any WW we’ve played together.)


Thanks for clearing that up Gwath, and no worries. I was a bit curious why you seemed so quiet.

After thinking about it last night, Volo might have been a somewhat random kill mixed with an, ‘ah ha! Possible messages in the post!’ attitude. Also, being the second Night, I surmise that they could take the gamble of testing immediate theories. The only question now is whether that would tell us or them if the GW let the other gifteds know about him or not (and vice versa). (Sorry if I'm behind the times at the moment, I don't have much time right now)


Okay, I’ve never played with phantom or Roa extensively so I have nary a clue to look for. The best I can do is just muck through the posts think more about it and post later on. I should be back before the DL.
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:17 AM   #357
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Pipe Vote:

Quote:
I just wanted to add that they also fear that a wolf is taken away by the GW's scry. (Mac)
There is also that, but that is something they cannot control. (Perhaps the EW can minimise that danger by picking unscryable targets--but what constitutes an unscryable target?) Enedwaith, they can control the Hunter-killing affair by avoiding the Hunter (not killing anyone who suspects a Werewolf.)

And thanks for summarising the Nerwen-bandwaggon for me.

Since I've managed to convince myself that the Wolves do talk to each other (), I can use my normal vote-analysis method.

Nerwen-bandwaggon, in order of increasing suspicion. (Times are GMT+8.)
  1. Aganzir (06:59am), who had to vote to save herself--there were still three villagers who didn't vote, two of whom have posted (Lhuna and Kath-chan). If Agan does turn out to be evil, they are probably innocent. (Or perhaps the wolves can't communicate. Haha.)
  2. Cailín (05:56am) who started the whole thing with a valid reason.
  3. Durelin (06:28am), who has expressed suspicion of Nerwen throughout--even before Cailín (q.v.)
  4. Lalaith (06:15am), who did express some suspicion of Nerwen (qq.v. 146, 182)
  5. Diamond18 (06:45am), who voted just cos she liked to keep Fantine. Well, in that case (DAY 1s ), I think I would have, too--but still.
  6. McCaber (06:09am), who voted with a shifty reason, was the second vote in the bandwaggon (often the psychological trigger), and acted like a submarine (no suspicion commitment).

So . . .

++McCaber

G'nite!
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:17 AM   #358
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Nilp, you're forgetting that the GW can also get rid of wolves by turning them to ordos. (Or at least, failing to mention it...)
Mac, I'm sorry about that, but it goes with the territory (agree with you = good, disagree = bad). Still, I'll give you this - I usually only see you doing that early in the game. Later on, as I've always said, you're one of the best wolf-hunters out there. As you're better as an innocent than as a wolf, if I were the EW, I'd kill you or try to get you lynched, rather than scry you. Also, the EW should know that I will catch you if you are a wolf, sooner or later!

(BTW, whenever people mention the EW, I feel slightly like they're talking about me - my initials used to be E.W., and soon will be again.)

Well, I think I'll make a list - however, not everybody's gonna be on it, because I'll have to make another trip back to Noggie's post to remember everyone's name. So, those I have the strongest views on first:

____ - Whatever he is trying to do, it isn't helping the village. YesterDay I thought he was just trying to stir the pot and get people talking, a day 1 technique I approve of, but toDay he is defensive and overly focused on Roa's attacks. He felt good yesterDay, but feels less good toDay. Sure, an EW who would scry such an obvious choice would be a bold one - but that might be what we have.

Roa - Her attacks on the poster formerly known as The Phantom were indeed a little hasty - not always accurately representing his posts. She may just be letting irritation with tp overcome her judgement, but she's also one of those who gave me the "go after so-and-so toDay" vibe. I actually find both of them somewhat suspicious, and wouldn't reject the possibility they're both evil.

Macalaure - He seems like his innocent self to me. I trust him so far, and am confident I will spot him if he's turned into a wolf. I know, saying that has gotten me in trouble before, but there it is.

Aganzir - She did seem nervous yesterday to me, and I find that hard to figure out, because I have always thought she was one who could keep her cool under pressure. One thing about her is if I were a wizard, I would have had her on my list - not that that means anything.

Nilp - Has been sensible enough so far. I don't like his last post, though - misleading, demoralizing to the village.

Dury - Looks innocent to me. I think I have finally gotten used to her personality, which I always found wolfish in the past - her attitude makes me think she is an ordo now, though.

Brin - Has been bugging me. I'll have to go back and look at her posts, but my general impression has been of a sort of scattered, irrational pattern.

McCobbler- Hopped on a bandwagon yesterday, and he is, of course, the ultimate submarine.

Sally and Gwath have both struck me as being unusually devoted in this game - Sally more serious than usual, and Gwatn more vocal. Not sure what to make of that.

the rest later...

EDIT: X'd with everybody since Mac.
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:50 AM   #359
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This satansaloser character. I had initially pegged her as a sort of sacrificial wolf but maybe that's not how the evil team are playing it.

Her posting at the start of Day 2 was just silly: numerous posts, mostly chatty, saying nothing. I thought this was going to be a set-up for a campaign against her, in the mould of the Roa/Nogrod thing from the previous wizard game. Now, while I tend to be on the phantom's side of this point, thinking a wolf-on-wolf attack at this early stage to be no good, Roa and others obviously see value there; I'm not going to argue. The point is, that's what I initially suspected: sally acts all silly and she is attacked for it.

I appear to have been wrong, and I'm sure I'll be wrong a few times before the end of the game, but she's still looking suspicious to me.

She seems way too eager to appease, and to make friends; to be in the spotlight without saying anything. Her vote forthe phantom and her jollying around with him today? There's something fishy going on there.

One other point, which is merely a gut feeling. Rikae feels less intimidating in this game, and I'm not sure what that means. Could be acting more sly than usual.
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Old 06-05-2008, 08:52 AM   #360
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Roa and phantom sitting in a tree ... Well I'm sorry but we've seen these mad arguments before and they almost always turn out to be two innocents going at it hammer and tongs at the expense of the village. It being Roa and phantom I wouldn't put it past them to be partners in crime but the sheer venom in the posts makes me think it unlikely.

Anyway, hello! I hope to be of more use toDay than I was yesterDay. Sadly this means I have 9 pages to catch up on rather than 4 but we'll see how it goes. I'm not entirely sure how I want to do this, I might try starting with my usual 'look at everyone' thing but that could take hours. I think I'll try it. Expect to see me again in a bit.
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