Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Couldn't sleep. Looks like I'm dead? Well, for whatever it's worth, I meant 'I suspected him, his answer made me think he was innocent, but people keep saying I have poor judgement so I' ll disregard the latter. '

I' m just an ordinary villager; sorry for being distracting. I'll try to do better as a corpse.

I'm pretty sure you are. Sorry. Hope you have a good time in the Dead Thread.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either.

Tell me what there is to buy?

[Boromir88]

It is deadline. Cease posting.

By my tally with 4 votes. Huey is to the gallows.

I've been adding to the narration throughout the day. Once I write in the ending shouldn't be waiting too long on the role. Maybe within 5 minutes.

[Boromir88]

The day began not at all the way the town expected. They were supposed to be here to discuss and choose a new leader, but were now expected to vote and kill one of their own.

"I'll make it easy today" said one of them and Nilp went to the gallows and put the rope around his own neck.

"Stop that. You're not sacrificing yourself." said some of them.

"Who are we to stop what he wants?" said some others.

As the day wore on, some suggested trying reason, some were in favor of abstaining and sharing s'mores. But for most of the day no one stopped Nilp from keeping the rope around his neck...until the very last minute.

Enough people started yelling at Nilp to get his head out of there, and despite some resistance, he stepped away.

Some started pushing Form up to the front, then another group started shouting for Huey. Nilp thought he heard his name again and ran up to try to grab the rope again, but he was stopped. It was finally decided Huey, who despite a frantic final minutes seemed to accept his fate.

The town waited around for a several minutes to see if Huey would change into a new form. He did not. The villagers hung their heads and returned home.


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 2. Silence in the town.

Wolves talk and send kill.

Seer send dream.

Ranger guard.

Beast Hunter set your trap.

[Boromir88]

The wolf-pack was in high spirits after getting the innocent Huey lynched, but they really wanted to top off the night with a successful kill. The pack debated through most of the night about who their victim would be. There was even talk of benefits moving to a vegetarian diet, being close to Greenwood the Great! But alas it was not so tonight and their victim was chosen.

They approached the residence and found their target lying fast asleep on her bed, as pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow. Better yet, it appeared she was completely defenseless and the pack would not go hungry tonight.

"She appears to be having such sweet dreams" said one of the werewolves. "Do you think we should wake her?"

Another werewolf tapped her on the shoulder "Wakey, wakey, candied snow flowers and Lottie-pops!"

Loslote awoke, startled seeing 4 snarling figures looming over her. She did not attempt to run however, seemingly knowing what was about to happen. "I am not one of the people that you seek. Dine well. Keep my bones to pick out bits stuck in your teeth! Hate to have one of you discovered for being messy eaters." she giggled sarcastically.

When the village awoke the next day, they knew there was one less of them and discovered Lottie was no longer with them. And they wept for their loss.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

-----

It is Day 2. Werewolves cease chatter.

Townspeople, bring me a lynch in 24 hours. The 2 villagers in the dead thread will have to both vote for one of you for there to be a Medium. If one of you is chosen as the Medium today, it will be revealed in the end of day narration.

[Kath]

Oh dear. Sorry Hui! I think I should have gone with voting Blind Guardian given it was the jump onto the vote that I found suspicious, but when I voted yesterDay it didn't look like there was time for more names to be added to the pile.

And Lottie is an interesting kill. She didn't really stand out to me yesterDay so it will be interesting to look at her posts and see what the wolves might have thought they spotted.

[Blind Guardian]

I typed this at the end of yesterDay. Will fix formatting later.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also,*BG*hopping on the*Formy*train with reasoning borrowed wholesale? *ping*

Originally Posted by Brinniel

For her opportunistic vote.

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.

I sorta suspected Huey yesterDay but I also agree with his vote for Formy. And I stand by my vote. I don’t know if it's a good call yet or not. Time will tell. Something feels wrong about Formy's posts and I am going with my gut feeling.

Originally Posted by Kath

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

I know I am Innocent but now I can say with certainty that Huey and I aren't chatting Wolves, cause it's confirmed that HE'S not a Wolf

Also I'm not a newbie Wolf. I've played as a Wolf before and I remember it VERY well because it ended up VERY badly for me. Everyone voted for me (over something really stupid and not at all a slipup) and I ended up crying in my room for an hour.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Or I guess you could try Formendacil's "talk to them" strategy...seems a little fishy to me though.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW.

Hui has some suspicion of Lottie based on this - thinking she might be a wolf framing him for acting that very way. He mentions Pitch as noticing Lottie talking about possibly not killing a wolf, and me for saying he's acting that way. Lottie in return thinks he's innocent.

Pitch soft-defends Lottie in post 99.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him. I agree with others that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could have potentially been cobbler hinting, though I would say the Nilp hint was a little more ambiguous. I'd be okay with voting for Form or Pitch, but I'd rather vote someone I think is a wolf than someone I think is a cobbler.

Originally Posted by Lottie

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Then votes Legate.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

Well, obviously not a lot to go on. Her tone was quite ... certain, is the way I'd put it, in pretty much all of her posts. Maybe it just read as though she actually knew things rather than just suspecting? Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

[Rikae]

I remember thinking at DL yesterday that Lottie's posting might attract wolf attention, just because she was so certain and vehement it made her look very innocent.

Actually my mental note was "if Hui is innocent and Lottie's still alive tomorrow, I should probably wonder about *her*".

Edit: x'd with Kath

[Kath]

And to answer this because I noticed my stupid moment ...

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?

This is because it took quite some while after this to realise that it is the person who is chosen by the Dead Thread votee who is called the Medium, not the votee themselves.

[Blind Guardian]

I'm trying to be a bit more active today and get my thoughts out since I won't be around much tomorrow at the end of the Day. (I plan on voting by 12PM AZ time (MST without Daylight Savings)

Right now I'm trying to find a reason for why the Wolves killed Lottie. My first thought was she was killed because of how she voted.

Lottie was the only person who voted for Legate. Legate in turn voted for Form.

I find this a tiny bit interesting. If Legate is the NW and the Wolves now want the NW active in the Dead Thread this can be their hint hint to get us to lynch.

On the other hand...Legate didn't say anything yesterDay that makes me suspicious of him. Legate wanted to vote for me, but actually voted for Form because:

Originally Posted by Legate

It is possible he [Form] might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.

The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

[Blind Guardian]

Now I'm reading Lottie's posts.

The first thing that stands out to me is that she is VERY helpful. Most of her posts are answering other peoples questions. The second most talked about thing by Lottie is the NW and Wolves in general. Was she getting too close to the Wolves or their plans and they lynched her? After that her posts are either asking questions (the "fish leather" thing from post 128), general banter, or joking around.

In post 141:
Lottie thinks that Form, Pitch, or Nilp are Cobbler hinting, but is okay with voting for Form or Pitch.

Lottie thinks that Huie is Innocent (and she was right).

I do find this quote generally interesting:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with this. No one has super strong suspicions right now, but a wolf would love either a) for the innocents to not vote, so that the wolves get to pick who dies and they don't have to worry that it could be one of them or b) for the wolves to not have to leave a trail by voting for an innocent. No voting doesn't help the village at all.

So the NW... she expects the NW to be "loud and bold" (post 73). The only loud and bold person that comes to mind is Nilp, but that's his own damn fault and not a reason to lynch Lottie.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Okay, so, two each for Form, Huin, and Nilp. Form has the tiebreaker.

Originally Posted by Loslote

[highlight//]++Legate[/highlight]

His last post struck me as way more suspicious than any of the other candidates. It was full of long words and had the overall effect of hemming and hawing, and majorly pinged my radar.

After this the rest of her posts are apologizing to Hu.

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

[Formendacil]

LOSLOTE:

I'm not sure if I'm surprised Lottie was killed or not. I was looking over things during the Night phase hours, and she was on my Question Mark list as someone who had said a lot (she posted 22 times yesterDay, the most in village), but was only quoted or referred to 25 times--the 7th most in the village.

Granted, this is coming from my rather subjectively-determined way of recording things, but in general there is a correlation between the amount someone posted and the amount they were spoken of. For example, Huin posted 18 times, good for a tie with Shasta for 3rd-most, and he was quoted or referred to in 54 posts, which was the most--and that seems about right, since he ended up being the lynchee.

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Anyway, does that mean anything now that she's dead? Probably not, though MAYBE if the wolves were looking to kill someone that had left no suspicions back in their direction and they were looking chiefly at people's "here's what I'm thinking about everyone posts", there is a wolf or two hidden in those absences.


HUINESORON:

My records of who mentioned/quoted seem a bit less useful here, since he turned out to be ordinary, and I'm not seeing anything yet in the people who mentioned HIM that reveals anything. As already noted, he was very active yesterday, so there's references to him. The flip-flop on me mid-post, resulting in his vote for me, was weird, but the real value there is in how it got leapt on and became the driving factor for his lynching. Frankly, I was Don Quixote against the Day 1 Windmills and then the Mad "What if we lynch no one" scientist (which, once I thought it through over several posts became a hole I was aware I was digging), so a vote for me as I grew more ridiculous over the course of the day seems more justified (even I know it was wrong) than the backlash to that vote became.

If I had the money to wager, I'd lay it all on the proposition that there was a wolf among those who voted to lynch Huin.


GUT REACTIONS TO HUIN'S LYNCHERS:

Shasta, Rikae, Nog, and Kath.

Shasta has a relatively high post-count (tied for 3rd at 18), but this is somewhat deceptive as a guide to his activity level, since his modus operandi was to make quick, one-paragraph replies to specific people/topics. He rarely posted in great depth--but he was involved. My gut inclines to say he's not an ordo... but that could just as well mean Gifted as Wolf.

Rikae disturbs me, but I don't know why. Just a different vibe/posting style?

Nog DOESN'T disturb me, and I actually think that's suspicious--as though he's trying too hard to be mellow and disinterested. That makes me think Gifted/Wolf again, but I lean Wolf.

Kath seems just a bit off-kilter, but I don't know why. She's the only one of these four that I think a possible cobbler right now.


OTHER THOUGHTS:

I mentioned that Loslote had struck me as having a somewhat off-kilter relationship between her number of posts and number of quotes/mentions. No one else was as drastic here, but Shasta also stood out as having posted a lot (as noted, third most) but didn't garner much attention--only 18 quotes/mentions by my count, good for 9th place. This might just be because his posting style inflates his post count relative to how much he actually said.

Pitchwife said relatively little (11 posts/9th most) but got a higher amount of attention (28 mentions/quotes - 4th most). I don't have a theory right now for what this might mean.

Kath also said fairly little (9 posts/10th most) but got a good amount of traction (26 mention/quotes - 6th most). She actually NEVER mentions Pitch that I recorded (but I think she doesn't bold names as much as some of us, so I could have missed them in my tally) but *IF* my tally is right, could this mean they're both Wolves? Pitch voted for her and she voted for Huin: could Kath have been subtly avoiding creating any ties to a fellow Wolf while Pitch made sure to set up a bit of an alibi for down the road that was completely safe to do? Kath was never in any danger of dying.

Then there's the lurkers: obviously, we all hope Sally is well enough to give us some posts, but there's also Mac, who has the same number of posts as Sally! Somehow, despite posting as little as Sally, Mac was even more under the radar: 7 mentions/quotes to Sally's 12. Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

Well--and Greenie. She was next-to-last after Mac and Sally in posting and tied with Mac in mentions. Of course, low posting correlates with low mentions, so this isn't a proof of Wolvishness, by any means, but it IS the stratum where a Wolf would love to hide, so worth investigating.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

Sally was mentioned in that post.

Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

I complete agree with you here. Mac needs to post more. I didn't even realize that he was part of this game.

[Macalaure]

Going through the vote count... I didn't realize at the time that I was the last one left to vote! I probably would have voted for Nilp if I had been aware, not that it would have made a difference.

But anyway, the voting was pretty much all over the place and I hope we can do better toDay. I find analyzing this hard - no real bandwaggon, pretty much everyone voting for who they want with fairly weak suspicions. Yes, I know, Day 1, sure sure... but we really made it easy for the wolves to just vote for whoever with whatever reason.

Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.
BG because her reason half-relied on early banter. Feeling better after her explanation toDay, though.
Nogrod because he put Hui in the lead over Form and Nilp. This of course depends on Form's and Nilp's role. Nevertheless something felt odd to me about the tone of his suspicions of Hui. Can't put my finger on it.
Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.

Originally Posted by Legate

Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.

I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh.


Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Also, yeah, working on the participation end. Though I don't think I usually top the post count in the best of cases.

[Blind Guardian]

YES HE'S HERE!

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

It was recommended to me prior to playing. I have two computer screens too so one with the Downs and the other with the spreadsheet.

I would love to see everyone else's spreadsheets after this game. Seriously, send me your spreadsheets people!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The plan:

1. Post this.
2. Breakfast
3. Overanalyse this.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+2208: Sally – none (Nilp – 1)
+2246: Shasta – hS (Nilp – 1, hS – 1)
+2312: hS – Form (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 1)
+2325: BG – Form (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 2)
+2334: Greenie – Pitch (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2339: Rikae – hS (Nilp – 1, hS – 2, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2340: Lommy – Nilp (Nilp – 2, hS – 2, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2346: Nog – hS (Nilp – 2, hS – 3, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2348: Lottie – Legate (Nilp – 2, hS – 3, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1)
+2348: Kath – hS (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1)
+2354: Brinn – BG (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Legate – Form (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Form – Nilp (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Pitch – Kath (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1, Kath – 1)
+2356: Mac – Pitch (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 2, Legate – 1, BG – 1, Kath – 1)

[Formendacil]

[QUOTE=Blind Guardian;726433]Sally was mentioned in that post./QUOTE]

Whoops! You're right.



And, re: Mac on the subject of spreadsheets...

Yup. Never ever done that before in WW, but there's a first time for everything, and I've been learning a lot more in Excel the last few years. It's proving fun in an inane, statistical way.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Twelve minutes before the deadline, with Kath giving hS his fourth vote, there were five votes left. Form and I have two votes. Aside from Legate voting for Form and Form voting for me (<3), there was no serious attempt to overturn the hS-waggon.

If Form or I were wolves, then this is fraught situation. Assuming the wolves have already voted, or even assuming that one of them is yet to vote, then if the four people decided to cast all their votes for either Form or myself, there’s no saving us. Assuming three goodies and two baddies left, the two baddies could still give hS the conclusive lead in the tally.

Now, of course, if none of the baddies were ever in any serious trouble, then that last stretch could go all over the place and not change the status quo established twelve minutes ago. Which is what seems to have happened.

I’ll look at the hS-waggon and the other sub-waggons next.

[satansaloser2005]

It's alive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally.

Form-chan, I think we (you, me, Pitch) are the Three Cobblers referred to in said post.

[Macalaure]

Why Lottie?

There's the usual Day1 goofing around, then some strategy talk... she doesn't really get into the thick of it until about an hour before the deadline. She calls Hui out for being paranoid, but is (one of) the first to say it's giving an innocent vibe.

She entertains the thought that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could be the cobbler.

#154 looks distinctly non-seerish, as not one name is singled out.

Then she picked up on Legate with some determination and votes for him. She spends the rest of the Day1 trying to save Hui.


If the wolves thought she was the seer, it would obviously point to Legate, but I don't see it. I admittedly didn't read through every early post. Did anybody see anything that one could interpret as a gifted hint? Or did the wolves just throw us the person with the highest post count so the village would have to talk about something that would lead them the wrong way? In that case the ones she listed as innocent - Greenie, Rikae, Brinn, Shasta, and BG and Sally to a lesser extent would look worse, though that's too large of a group to be useful.

I feel like I'm trying to read too much into this.

[Brinniel]

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by BG

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too?

Yeah, maybe you can call mine a bit of a throwaway, but I didn't really care to vote for any of the options on the table. And I honestly thought that there were more people left to vote (I forget this is a smaller village compared to last game).

Originally Posted by Mac

Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Not me! I usually at most just scribble handwritten notes when I play. There may have been a game or few in the past where I tracked quotes from players in a word documents, but never spreadsheets. I deal enough with spreadsheets at work...y'all are crazy!

I see Formy is now using statistics/math to analyze posts. Blegh!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too?

Yes, but I know I'm innocent.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Ohh shoot I forgot the seer was a role. BRB gonna read the sticky role post again.

Everything below this line was added in various edits:

I thought the roles were Wolves, Cobble, Ranger, BH, Villagers. My spreadsheet doesn't even have seer as role on it It has failed me...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Because they don't know who the Gifteds are. And, quite frankly, neither do we.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, as always.)

First vote: Shasta

22:16: Wonders if hS was the Nightmare Wolf.

22:18: Clarified his thoughts above.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

2246: Voted for him.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

__________________

Interlude: Huinesoron's vote post

2312: Significant in light of later events.

__________________

Second vote: Rikae

2227: Shares thoughts on what appears to be the Three Cobblers + hS.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience

(Quick summary: Lottie [1836] expects the Nightmare Wolf 'to play as loud and bold as possible'. hS [2018] posts a Kath description of him [1901] that he paraphrases as his being described as playing 'loud and bold', and thought that it was a setup for bringing down suspicion on him.)

2339: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Too many people either absent or lurking

Oh well, my strongest suspicion at this point:

++Huinesoron

__________________

Third vote: Nogrod

2321: Noticed irregularities in hS's vote post immediately.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, that was an interesting vote. What on earth that was supposed to mean?

2325: Lommy responds to Nog's suspicion.

2332: Nogrod clarifies his suspicion.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't mean that. We all can see him changing his mind (or him letting us understand he changes his mind). But if he was an innocent, wouldn't he have said that:

"For my initial trust on Form - and my dodgy judgement..."

and not

"For my earlier suspicions - and my dodgy judgement..."

If you're an innocent you do know whether you thought of someone as innocent or suspected that person. If you're a wolf, you can easily miss that, especially as "because of my earlier suspicions" is kind of a general way to put it?

This discussion continues in Lommy's 2336 post and Nog's 2343 post. Quoting the latter:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes and no. I see it more likely as a slip.

If you're an innocent and honestly think someone is innocent and then decide to vote that person on grounds of that person doing something you detest at the last hour, you don't reason for it on the basis of your earlier suspicions!

2346: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Ok. I'll try to also learn this "voting before the absolute last minute" as well.

++ Huinesoron

I'm not confident about this, but that's the best one I can reason myself to stand behind.

2349: Pitch comments on Nog's suspicions (among other things).

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

How would "For my initial trust..." be a valid reasoning for voting someone?

IIRC Hui actually had some early suspicion of Formy, then after pushing (TM) him a bit thought him innocent based on his reactions, then changed his mind again in the eleventh hour. It was a sudden turn, to be sure, with reasoning borrowed from the posts above him, but I can't find fault with the reasoning itself.

2354: Nog replies.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because he adds the next, "because of his poor judgement".

So: "I trusted X but nah, I have poor judgement, therefore I vote X".

I would have understood that.

__________________

Fourth vote: Kath

1846: Shares 'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.'

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

2343: Surmises a BG-hS connexion.

Originally Posted by Kath

Having just skimmed through, the biggest thing worrying me here is the way Blind Guardian just jumped on Hui's vote. It felt very like a newbie wolf following the footsteps of a more experienced packmate.

Of course, that assumes Hui's guilt but it stuck out to me.

2348: Votes for him.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well I am going to assume not all the wolves have voted yet and go for Hui to see what happens after that.

++HUI

__________________

Others' comments on the Huiagon:

2351: From Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

2352: Lottie concurs.

2355: Form's vote post comments on hS.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I think Huin is being slightly railroaded, having been a loud voice today and while that doens't mean he's not a wolf, it doesn't mean he is. And as someone else who's been comparative vocal, I'm leaning away from that being a good reason to vote.

2358: Lottie comments on the absolute state of the voting at that point.

Originally Posted by Loslote

If wolves were trying to save Huin, they have easy candidates in Form and Nilp. It probably doesn't bode well here that we're not seeing a push towards anyone else.

This is a fitting last part. I believe that this is a cogent summary of the voting on DAY 1. It reinforces my belief (q.v.) that none of the Wolves were in any danger of the noose.

(inb4 'of course you'd say that, you're one of the suspects!')

hS's four votes were accrued over about an hour, I got two votes in 15 minutes (not including my vote), and Form's three votes were spread over a 40-odd-minute period. Considering that there were 14 votes within the last 74 minutes (and 13 within the last 48), a handful of votes should not have been decisive.

And as mentioned in the post linked to above, Form and I got votes after hS's last, but the outcome was unchanged.

As for the Huiagon itself, it has been built upon what I would assume are typical DAY 1 reasons for voting someone. There were up to four, ah, distinctive personalities that were presented for voting, and he was the unlucky winner.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by BG

Lottie was the only person who voted for Legate. Legate in turn voted for Form.

I find this a tiny bit interesting. If Legate is the NW and the Wolves now want the NW active in the Dead Thread this can be their hint hint to get us to lynch.

On the other hand...Legate didn't say anything yesterDay that makes me suspicious of him. Legate wanted to vote for me, but actually voted for Form because:

The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

I do think that's a stretch - but I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet. But whether they'd want to draw attention to Legate in this way when he's so far skated by more or less unsuspected is another matter. They'd have had to be pretty sure about Lottie to risk it. Another feasible scenario is the one Brinn mentioned where they thought Lottie's defence of Huin looked like a Seer trying to save an ordo she had dreamed about. I agree that this is more likely.

Originally Posted by BG

Because they don't know who the Gifteds are. And, quite frankly, neither do we.

Hang on, what? Sure, the wolves don't know who the Gifteds are. But why would that mean they'd purposefully go after whoever looked most likely to be an ordinary villager instead of trying to catch a Gifted, even if they could be wrong? Whoever they kill (even if they accidentally kill their Cobbler) will count as an innocent in the tally anyway, but if their victim is an ordo the benefits stop there.

I'm glad to see more of Nilp and Mac toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of Nilp now, and Mac worries me a little but I'm trying to be sensible about it given how badly things went last time this happened! Meanwhile, looks like Form has taken the spreadsheet thing to a whole new level. Interestingly though, he talks about absences being significant and himself omits BG, Brinn and Lommy.

Oh, and another thing re. yesterDay's voting (sorry this is becoming a bit of a stream of consciousness post). I thought it was curious that the last four votes came within a minute of each other and all for different people - Legate for Form (3), Form for Nilp (3), Pitch for Kath, and Mac for Pitch (2). Presumably quite a bit of cross-posting here. The thing is, these four could still have swayed the lynch almost any way they wanted. I agree that the lack of anything like coordination or attempts to convince others could point to no wolves being in the immediate line of fire. The last two especially look somewhat safe, but then, given the likelihood of cross-posting, they wouldn't have known what everyone else was doing - and if these last four voters had all gone for the same person who had even just one vote, that person would have ended on the lynch block instead of Huin.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right... so first mandatory question - why Lottie?

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?). Unless of course they took her overall fairly confident tone for Seerishness and thought they just hit a jackpot by killing the Seer after she just dreamed a person who ended up lynched. It's possible, but it's a pile of big "if"s already.

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

She indicated her thoughts about all people in the greatest length in this post:

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

The thing is, Lottie did not single out any person that would seem like "I dreamed of this one". Would it be enough if a Wolf was randomly mentioned in the last group? One could similarly say that any of the former group would be unlikely to kill Lottie because she would have just considered them innocent. Perhaps if we wanted to distill some bare minimum out of this, then it would be that at least one of the people categorised by Lottie in one of the groups is correct. But that's basically nothing.

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.

Even if that was not a factor, however, that means however another thing - which may be perhaps more worth considering - that not only did the Wolves think Lottie a good pick, but that they did not consider anybody else a better one. Now one could probably spend a Day analysing all the permutations of this, but it may be something worth keeping in mind.

Otherwise: the lynch yesterDay. Given the high amount of votes, I can imagine the Hui bandwagon being a good place for Wolves to jump on. However, that isn't to say Wolves wouldn't have happily cast votes elsewhere, especially given the spread. Will have a break, then look at these.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, two more observations still about Lottie:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Tell me what there is to buy?

Just before the DL, she had this short exchange with Nog. I am wondering if that could in any way have been a factor, since she never got to finish that sentence. Plus, her apology to Hui could have also been seen as another sign of innocence.

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, basically all the votes in the Huiwagon look like possibly Wolvish. Shasta's vote started the whole thing and at that point there was probably no telling how things would go, so one cannot place very much weight on it either way.

Rikae's vote evened it up with Form (Form still being in the lead). This would be significant if Form is a Wolf, a way to build a counter-wagon. There were, however, many votes uncast at that point yet and quite a big spread, even though Form was the one (even after Rikae's vote) to be first on the chopping block.

Nog basically pushed Hui into the lead. If either of the other candidates at that point was a Wolf, he could have done that to save a packmate. Another thing to consider is that Form and Nilp had been acting or been considered in some way cobbler-ish yesterDay. So even if neither of them was a Wolf, a Wolf might have protected them simply to keep a presumed ally around. Incidentally, that being said, Nog was also soft-core "defending" Form/potentially diverting attention by analysing Hui's post about Form (that eventually led him to vote him). Granted, Hui's post was phrased in a very strange way - but that would have made it a good target for a Wolf (who would know Hui was innocent) to latch onto.

Kath's vote was kind of a nail in the coffin (but that still could have been overturned - and yes, I also think it's of note that it wasn't). Now she explained why she did not vote BG, and yes, in retrospect, there seemed to have been quite some potential for lynching BG which disappeared because people started to decide their votes very late.

Which by the way brings to mind - yesterDay evening was at least for me horribly rushed, like all the Day nothing and suddenly two hours before DL everyone starts posting. Thankfully, toDay looks better, and obviously now we have more info to go with than yesterDay. But it would be nice if we could also kind of come up with at least some basic ideas a bit more early, and not just before DL.

Otherwise: there were quite a few "throwaway" votes in the last minutes. At that point, it is theoretically possible Wolves would have been happy with Hui being lynched but did not want to contribute to it any more to avoid being blamed for it. Still, there would have been the chance to bring someone else into lead - which makes me wonder whether one of the other bigger bandwagons was for a Wolf after all (Form or Nilp).

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Let's say it's late DAY 1, and you're the Seer. The person you dreamt of is likely (but doesn't yet look guaranteed) to be lynched. How far, exactly, would you go to save that person? Would you post like this?

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah. I really don't think [Huin]'s a wolf.

Even if that person was all but lynched, would you make posts like this?

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm pretty sure you are. Sorry. Hope you have a good time in the Dead Thread.

I'd go on a limb and say it would be remiss of me as a Seer on DAY 1 to make comments like this when hardly any vote has been cast yet:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you [Huin] as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

(This was posted three hours and 33 minutes before the deadline (and the only vote on the board was my Nilping.))

Also, if Lottie were interested in saving dreamt-innocent hS, she would have voted for either me or Form, who at that point had 2 votes to hS's three.

What to make of this...?

[Nogrod]

It seems Greenie has opened a veritable Pandora's Box: spreadsheets, post-number and comment-number analysis, voting-minute comparisons...

Well, I'll still stick with a piece of paper and a pen.


First of all I must share the view expressed by a few already, that it seems likely the wolves were sitting back quite comfortably in the end of the Day. Especially in the light of Greenie's point, that the last votes could have been (or at least some of them probably were) crossposts. That doesn't mean that Form or Nilp are "shown innocents", and one of the two might totally be a wolf, but it does decrease at least my suspicions of them as it looks more likely the wolves were sound & safe.


On Lottie then.

With all the possible caveats considered, the wolves do want in the end to get rid of the Seer as soon as possible. Just remember the last game where the wolves would have won hands down if they had managed to find the Seer. So I'd claim that even if they have no clue as to who that might be, they'll make their pick keeping their thumbs up that they get the Seer. I mean, that's the consideration they keep in mind all the time.

So we have two theories on Lottie's "seerishness" thus far, expressed nicely by Brinn and Greenie (who had doubts about the validity of the reasoning she presented).

Originally Posted by Brinn

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet.

Brinn is correct that the Seer seldom hits a wolf on the first Night and thence it is much more probable that if the Seer leaves hints about someone, that one is an innocent person. But, I'd add, that if someone sending any "seer-vibes" happens to have picked one of them, they are more or less forced to act on it.

There is also this:

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

To me that looks more, or at east as "seerish" (the odd way of éxpressing it), than anything Lottie did to say she thinks about hS's innocence.

Yes, it may be they were going to and fro between the two, and then decided on Lottie for one reason or another, but it makes me a bit less confident on this explanation.


Which brings me to the Legate-wolf -scenario.

Legate himself said:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

I tend to disagree with the reasoning here. If Lottie had suspected Legate for longer, but especially with some decent reasoning behind it, then there wouldn't have been a good reason for them to suspect her especially seerish. But Lottie did quite an awkward, one might even say fabricated, case for Legate and sticked to it with some confidence (or with what looked like confidence).

A seer doesn't want to cry "I'm the Seer" all Day, but oftentimes Seers feel some pressure when the end of the Day draws nearer. It would be sad to get killed leaving nothing of your knowledge to others.

So her just coming up with it late in the Day, and with non-existant reasons, actually makes her look more seerish than not - in case Legate is a wolf, that is.


On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.

[Nogrod]

Just a short add-on.

I see I X'd with Legate and Nilp - and there are some thoughts to add.

First of all I had forgotten how often Lottie said she thought hS looks innocent to her. Reading those made me think whether I was wrong saying Mac would have looked like a Seer as well (or even more) if the mark of seerishness for the wolves was defending Hui's innocence. Although there still is the fact that Lottie uses quite a lot of space explaining why she thinks Hui's innocent while Mac just states he takes a "leap of faith" on it. Hmm...

Originally Posted by Nilp

Also, if Lottie were interested in saving dreamt-innocent hS, she would have voted for either me or Form, who at that point had 2 votes to hS's three.

What to make of this...?

Well, that is a question that seems to have one clear answer - and that is that Lottie voted Legate even if there seemed to be no real possibility of Legate being lynched instead of making sure or even trying to aid saving hS she so strongly felt innocent.

Although it must be added, that hS was not like lynched at the time Lottie voted - he was leading the tally but there were a handful of votes yet to come. But anyway.

Hard to say.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.

Glad to hear you come to roughly the same conclusion I did--although you could also be snared in that very trap.

These were two of Lottie's strong (DAY 1-strong, that is) suspicions:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Already well covered. She eventually voted for Legate.

Et l'autre........... c'est toi, Nogrod!

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't know that I buy this from Nog, either. Also on the list of people to take a closer look at.

The use of 'radar' and 'closer look' might resemble Seer-ish clues. On the other hand, this level of obviousness seems about as naive as the repeated insistence on Hui's innocence, a point I've already raised.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything.

That may be so, but how are we supposed to know you aren't making it up after the fact?

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I sorta suspected Huey yesterDay but I also agree with his vote for Formy.

You never mentioned anything about suspecting Hui either.

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Something feels wrong about Formy's posts and I am going with my gut feeling.

I concur with this.

Originally Posted by Kath

Her tone was quite ... certain, is the way I'd put it, in pretty much all of her posts. Maybe it just read as though she actually knew things rather than just suspecting? Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

I think this makes sense, although you neglect to mention that she also mentioned both you and Mac as alternative candidates for a vote.

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

The only thing that may be even slightly suss of Legate is that he did a breakdown post of all of the players and what he thought of them. This could be a Wolf way of sending his thoughts to other Wolves during the Day. Which is a major stretch.

It is, because a lot of people do that regardless of role. It's a normal way of playing the game.

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

I notice BG keeps talking about lynching when she actually means Night-killing. I'm actually inclined to think she wouldn't be this confused as a wolf. I still don't get the 'most likely to be a Villager' thing though.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.

Throwing stones from inside the glass house?
I admit it was effectively throwaway, but I didn't realise it at the time. I lost track of time trying to wrap my mind around Nog's explanation for his Hui-suspicion (which I'm still not sure makes any sense), and when I noticed how late it was I voted without checking the tally. If I'd seen Brinn's vote before posting my own, I might have voted BG instead. Both Form and Nilp seemed more cobblerish than wolvish to me, whereas I thought Kath could be a quiet wolf.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

No. Never. Bothering with WW and Excel at the same time? Madness.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

One observation: when rereading her posts, what stands out to me perhaps the most is her belief in the innocence of Hui, which... would not make any sense as any motive for anyone to kill her, rather the contrary (as in, if the Wolves thought she was the Seer, then big deal, she just dreamed of a lynched innocent, so?).

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Form-chan, I think we (you, me, Pitch) are the Three Cobblers referred to in said post.

Ha! That's what I get focusing in one post at a time, looking for bolded names. That would certainly be the easiest way to fill that gap.

The Loslote Was Killed For Looking Like A Seer case has merit enough to consider. Honestly, though, it makes me wonder less about the Wolves--because OF COURSE they'll take a gamble on a Seer (though it's worth double-checking if it leaves a trail back to them conventionally)--but about Loslote. In other words, since she's not actually the Seer, is she an Ordo who got misinterpreted, an Ordo who deliberately cast some distractions out there (an Anti-Cobbler, so to speak, to protect the real Seer, whomever they were), or the Cobbler?

I just checked the Planning Thread main post--I didn't check the whole thread--but it didn't actually say what I've been assuming: is the Cobbler actually revealed in death? I keep assuming that it's not and it's the one role revealed after the game is over... but am I just making that up? The only relevance here is that knowing the Cobbler is dead would mean we don't have to worry about one, but the import for the Dead Thread is huge. Having not seen anything in the Planning Thread, I assume I am making this up...

...the upshot of which is that Loslote is a Cobbler could be scratched from my list of options.


Anyway, while there may be something to be gleaned, it's probably wrong to focus on Loslote's reasons; the Wolves and their possible reasons will save the village more.

I still think there's something weird in the nexus of Pitch and Kath, but I don't know if it's both of them or just one...

More anon.

[Boromir88]

I went with a little tiny difference that I preferred more:

Seer (1)- chooses 1 person to dream of and discover their identity each night. If the Seer dreams the Cobbler, they will only see the cobbler as an "ordinary villager."

I read my way back when first game playing as the seer. When I dreamed of Durelin as an ordinary villager and she ended up being the cobbler. Some tiny quirk I prefer to go with...since the cobbler counts as an ordinary villager in the tally, the Seer would presumably only 'see' the cobbler is a villager.

But anyway, the cobbler is revealed if sent to the dead thread.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I went with a little tiny difference that I preferred more:



I read my way back when first game playing as the seer. When I dreamed of Durelin as an ordinary villager and she ended up being the cobbler. Some tiny quirk I prefer to go with...since the cobbler counts as an ordinary villager in the tally, the Seer would presumably only 'see' the cobbler is a villager.

But anyway, the cobbler is revealed if sent to the dead thread.

Hmmm, maybe some misremembering of that was the cause of my invented rules.

Well, we can definitely count Loslote as a Known Innocent, then. Her vote for Legate probably bears some considering in light of her death, but it's likely the Seer hints that led to that rather than the vote as the driving factor.

[A Little Green]

Re: Huin voters –

I think Shasta's vote comes across as the least fishy of the lot, though admittedly this is simply due to timing; it was the first real vote in the game (sorry Nilp, not counting yours ), and before most of the action happened. But also his tone where he admits that Huin’s response made him feel slightly better but Huin’s still the one he’s most comfortable voting, looks genuine to me.

Rikae says Huin’s paranoia over Lottie and Kath setting him up looks like a guilty conscience, and is second to vote for him. Merits extra attention based on vote placement if Form or Nilp are wolves, but I’m not sure how likely this is given the general feel of the voting yesterDay. I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way – Huin would have been a very easy target for a wolf looking for a decent D1 argument against someone, but I could just as well see innocent Rikae finding him the most suspicious of the lot given how generally uneventful the Day was.

Nog votes for Huin after a case against him and several disclaimers on how little there is to go on. This combination looks pretty incriminating – textbook hand-washing wolf – but almost too much so to be true. He’s also quick to turn on Legate based on the Lottie kill, and while the argument has merit, it doesn’t make me feel much better about Nog; if the Huin lynch incriminated a wolf (or more than one), and they killed Lottie for the Huin comments rather than the Legate ones, setting Legate up would be a good way of distracting the village from the Huin lynchers. Then again, the argument about Legate seems plausible too. Could even be wolf-on-wolf? (Sorry, speculation mode went into overdrive.)

Kath seals Huin’s fate with a fourth vote. There were still plenty of people left to vote though, so she wouldn’t necessarily have known this. Her vote was certainly consistent with her earlier pre-vote post where she said she’d like to go for either Huin or Nilp. That post was one of the starting points of the whole suspicion on Huin, and I could see Kathwolf leaving that to take root and then come back later and vote for him because she suspected him all along so she can’t be faulted for jumping on a bandwagon. But as with Nog, this looks so contrived it makes me wonder if Kathwolf would really do this. She would have known that orchestrating an innocent lynch is bound to get her noticed early on when normally she’s capable of skating by quite comfortably for Days before anyone even considers the possibility of her being guilty.

Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list. Nog and Kath look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true. Rikae makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts on the Hui-wagon (not Hui-agon, which would be an ancient Greek sports contest involving Hui or held in his honour):

Kath
'spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions': I don't like the disclaimer, it sounds she doesn't want to be held accountable for what follows. Then:

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

The first part of this sentence describes Hui's behaviour correctly, the second half doesn't. He engaged people and gave his reads on them based on how they reacted, so I think he said quite a bit. It's also how I remember innocentHui playing in our first game together. Also, 'being loud but not saying much' is a pretty generic reason for suspecting someone. All of this looks to me like a quiet wolf fabricating a suspicion to fall back on later.

Shasta
'Hui's way of playing is likely to get him voted, NW wants to get lynched early, so Hui could be the NW.' Fair enough so far, although I'm not sure Hui was really a more likely NW than, say, Nilp* or maybe even Formy (actually if the NW plays loud bold & crazy in order to get lynched early, they might easily be mistaken for a chaotic cobbler).

The following 'I liked his response but I'll vote him anyway' doesn't feel right at all.

Rikae
Thought Hui's paranoia about a Lottie-Kath conspiracy against him 'looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience'. This is actually the only of the four Hui voters whose reasoning I find sound, because I thought the same at the time, although the following conversation between Hui and Lottie made me feel better about him.

Nog
Found or construed an apparent self-contradiction or slip in Hui's post leading up to his vote for Formy, which I don't think was there, or only could have looked that way if you only read that one post of Hui's and ignored the whole previous interaction between them. Defended his reading by much linguistic hair-splitting which still gives me a headache. In a way this is very much standard Nog, but it also looks forced to me.

If there's a wolf among these four, I'd still say it's most likely Kath, with Shasta and Nog sharing second place, and Rikae most innocent-looking.

I'll be busy the next couple of hours but will be back in the European evening.

_________________


*I see he's cast off the chaotic cobbler cloak, that's a good thing. What kind of creature emerges from underneath remains to be seen.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It's still hard to reconcile these two things in my head:

• The primary goal of the baddies in the opening stages of the game is to kill the Seer.
• Lottie seemed a bit too obvious to be a Seer (as I've argued in my last two posts).

But then it came to me: What if there were no other possible candidate? What if none of the rest of the villagers got anything right?

This hypothesis does thrust these two posts into the spotlight:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

The way he grabs all the attention makes him a possible cobbler, or maybe a suicidal nightwolf, but I doubt that.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I really feel like we're at best lynching the cobbler with Hui.

(These two being Mac's second and third posts in the game. Btw, Nog has already touched upon the second post on his post here.)

The earlier of those posts (made 11 minutes before the deadline) post-dated three of Lottie's posts on hS (which I quoted here), if that is of any significance.

If the Wolves were down to innocent-Mac and innocent-Lottie as their Seer target, what pushed them to choose Lottie over Mac?

__________________

Also, re spreadsheets (I had wanted to comment on this but I keep forgetting to add it at the end of my posts):
If I open a spreadsheet my keyboard turns Japanese, so unless I wish to write comments like:

フォームちゃんはおかしいだけど好き。 (Form-chan is acting strange but I still love him.)

I'd rather stick to good old Notepad(++).

I'll try to get a few hours of sleep before the inevitable four-page fireworks.