WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Wilwa:

#215: Pointless.

#226: A post of Boro's doesn't make sense and seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The line "I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be." she finds odd. Understands what Nog is trying to say about Roa, but agrees with Nerwen that it's not enough to make her suspicious of Roa as well. Is confident in Nog for this reason, though. Agrees with Roa about Boro not latching on to the suspicion of her (Roa) when she made her number-slip until someone else suspected her for it. Disagrees with Roa that Nog is pretending to be the Seer. Questions her, but does not suspect her. Boro makes her uneasy, Nog she's fine with and Roa is iffy.

#232: Mostly pointless. Was starting to think Roa guilty (based on Nog's case?) until Legate's reveal of her withdrawal.

#239: Boro weirds her out "but that's normal", is especially fine with Nog, is good with Nerwen and Mnemo. Doesn't see why the people who got three votes got three votes.

#346: Makes a point I actually agree with, that saying "this is how I would act/have acted as a wolf" can't be expected to be taken as a case for someone's innocence. Comments that it seems like "we're not going to go after Inzil for a while, since even though he didn't die people may think "oh, well lets go for someone else today" and then he could be a wolf this whole time and we could be letting him get by. Does that make sense? I mean I'm not saying "lets get Inzil and finish what we started" cause I don't really suspect him, but it just feels so weird to me." <- I'm not okay with this comment. It reminds me eerily of Mr. Agreeable, like she's giving herself an out while keeping Inzil in the spotlight. Uneasy, but nothing concrete about Morsul. Eomer is under her radar. Mnemo is acting different than yesterday, but not suspiciously so. Good with Nog, Mac, and Nerwen. Iffy about me (Shasta), but not truly suspicious of. Might vote Boro.

#363: Will vote for one of Lommy, Boro, Pitch, Mnemo, Loslote, Inzil, or Nerwen. Probably not Lommy, possibly Boro, possibly Pitch (finds him iffy after a quick skim), okay with Mnemo, hasn't paid attention to Loslote, doesn't know why people suspect Inzil, good with Nerwen. Deciding between Boro and Pitch, leaning Boro.

#381: Thought about voting Pitch, but decides to vote for Boro.

#403: Defends herself against Lommy quite vehemently. Says she's been consistent with her suspicion of him and has given ample reasoning. Makes special note of the fact that she wasn't bandwagoning or adding more names to the pile.

#456: Pointless.

#461: Does some analyzing of Mnemo. Thinks Boro or Nog might be wolves, based on the fact that Mnemo seemed sure of their innocence. Thinks Pitch might be innocent, because she (Mnemo) concentrated on Inzil and Pitch and Inzil was innocent, also her (Mnemo's) vote for Pitch. Will be keeping an eye on Sally due to Mnemo's interactions with her (Sally). Notes again that Mnemo was positive of Nog's innocence and mentions that while she doesn't find Nog that suspicious, she'll be keeping that in mind.

#490: Defends herself against Boro. Says she didn't find Mnemo suspicious and didn't want to bring anyone else into the mix, so anyone she voted for would have tied them with Mnemo. Unsure about Lottie's reveal. Thinks the decision to reveal was rushed as Lottie wasn't in any danger of being lynched. Again reminds me of Pitch with "I'm not saying I completely don't believe her, but..." Doesn't feel suspicious of anyone except possibly Nog because of how Mnemo felt about him and uneasy with Boro.

#497: A list. Half and half on Nienna, a bit wary of Pitch, will let Morsul be, rather suspicious of Lommy for being agreeable, doesn't talk about Boro, fairly good with me (Shasta), will let Loslote be, will keep a closer eye on Sally, unsure about Nogrod, and no one else has stood out.

#499: Pointless.

#509: After a quick skim, decides to vote Nienna, though she's "not positive".

#602: Mostly pointless. Commisserates on the Nienna-lynch, is glad it wasn't her (Wilwa).

#711: Votes Pitch.

#735: Unsurprised about Eomer. Thinks Boro makes sense regarding the kill choices of those who voted Mnemo twice. Responds to Lommy that the fact that Nog and Mac are alive could be a bluff. More agreeableness and vacillating. Comments that Lottie could still be a lying wolf.

-----------

Apologies if this has already been done/is repetitive. A lot of this is for my benefit, and conclusions coming next.

[satansaloser2005]

Erm, crap. Double post. Anyway, sorry about that. Getting to analysis now that my internet isn't flailing as much.


*headdesks*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Points against Wilwa:
-Very careful to stay on Nog and Roa's good side
-Attempts to keep Inzil as a viable lynch option while disavowing any attempt of such a thing on her part
-Sudden suspicion of Pitch, considering the timing
-Sets herself up to be able to say "I suspected Pitch" while voting for Boro; possible Mnemo-rescue attempt
-Her "ample reasoning" against Boro is that he "makes her uneasy"
-Draws attention to the lack of bandwagoning-motive for her Boro vote
-Faulty logic in #461, regarding Inzil and Pitch
-Flipflops on Pitch after nearly voting him the day before
-Flipflops on Nog after being quite good with him
-Huge qualification regarding Lottie's reveal
-Flipflops again on Pitch in #497
-Rather "pot-calling-kettle" suspicious of Lommy
-Votes for Nienna out of the blue, very bandwagon-like
-Insistent that we don't believe Lottie (this could go either way)

Points for Wilwa:
-Makes a good point about past wolfery not being applicable in present games
-Reasonable defense against Boro in #490
-The wolf-killchoice of Inzil
-Reasonable (if a bit misguided) approach to whether or not to believe Lottie's reveal

----------------

So there's a lot more against Wilwa than there is for her. I'm glad to know it wasn't just groupthink that made me suspicious of her.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what do we say of Lottie? As I said yesterDay the wolves will not kill her so it's up to us to decide (sorry Sally, I saw you hinting at me giving the wolves info late yesterDay but really they would see it anyway - and if I was a wolf I would have rather told them that during the Night and not talk of it in open - which I thought I should do as I couldn't know whether I was alive toDay or not).

I don't like this, you are basically giving the wolves a reason to not kill Lottie. By saying "Let's give her a few days and if she's not dead then we'll lynch her" you're offering the wolves a lynch target in a couple days, so why kill her?

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

1. She gave us a wolf
2. Her reveal and details check out
3. He reasons for revealing check out

We'd be foolish to follow that proposed plan. No what we do is we accept the fact that Lottie is a known innocent, who gave us a wolf. If the wolves want to keep her around, that's their perogative. Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

or like you, Mac and Nogrod. I'm starting to think that you all (and me too) are still alive because one of us is a wolf.

That's kind of crappy news because I really don't suspect any of you. So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking or I'm getting paranoid (which is not good news either) either because the wolves are intending people to get paranoid because of the "veteran loudmouths" all surviving or because it's just random we're all alive.

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.

Maybe Brinn and/or Mac are wolves, and I'm alive because they have no reason to kill me since I haven't been suspecting them at all.

Maybe they're killing those who look even more innocent.

Maybe they haven't killed me, because I'm being a pain to the wrong people and I haven't done anything to make them worry about me.

Maybe, I'm too big of a pain and they fear killing me, so as long as I sit in a corner and rant to myself they don't care.

Maybe it's multiple of these possibilities...and these are just the ones off the top of my head.

Instead of trying to make weak-based assumptions about why I'm not dead yet, and this makes you suspicious. Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.

No they aren't. Think of it as a scale, or even your NogRoa point system. ("This looks good for Nog, this doesn't look good for him"). That's all I was doing with the wolf-on-wolf votes.

In general I tend to believe wolves don't do a lot of pre-planned schemes the first night. They want to get an idea of what people are thinking, the situation...etc, before setting out on concrete plans. Plus, the number of people, points to wolf-on-wolf being votes being less likely.

However, that was not a normal Day 2. Mnemo was under considerable suspicion on Day 1, and started Day 2 under even more suspicion. On top of that she did a 180 character change, this pointed to me that either "a wolf-on wolf, or one of her packmates nudging suspicion towards her, os more likely." The only contradiction is "less" and "more," but think of it as a scale and that I was disagreeing with Eomer saying there were no wolf-on-wolf votes. (Now, we also know that Mnemo voted for Pitchwolf, this makes the wolf-on-wolf possibility again more likely, as Mnemo went sacrificial).

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Putting words in my mouth, are you? I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.

Oh really?

Long story short, not seeing any "dodgy reasoning" here. I don't trust Nerwen's vote at all, I think that she's a wolf who tried to either kill Mac or save Inzil (or possibly Mnemo... all three scenarios have interesting connotations)

That's an un-altered quote from your post #234. The only alteration is my bolding to add emphasis.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.

Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her.

[Nerwen]

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

To be fair, at least one of these must be an innocent reaction– also the kill does look like a change of tactic on the part of the wolves. Still. Since it's likely enough one or more of the three is a baddie, it makes me wonder if Eomer's death is a deliberate red herring, or perhaps frames someone.

And I really don't like this:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking

Sort of "I'm-definitely-not-a-villain..."

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, she gave us a wolf and I would say we should search for the remaining two elsewhere for a Day or two... but if we don't get them we should lynch her before the numbers start evening out. Just to be on the safe side.

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

EDIT: X'd with a whole lot of people.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

Not necessarily. The secret role could be, as Lottie mentioned (and I believe her on this) forbidden to reveal except for/given certain conditions or could be something completely different from Lottie and even more insane of a role. I know I had trouble in Shasta's game with my unknown (surprise!) hunter role, so imagine something that normally doesn't exist in a game.

I'm just sayin'. Lottie may be telling the truth, she may be lying. I'm kind of done dealing with her at least for now, because we've got more important things to worry about. If it gets to crunch time I may look at her again but for now I think she can take care of herself.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boro

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

~~~~~~

Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it.

That made me laugh. And, that's the plan. Now,

++Lommy

Take Two. I don't know if I'll be on before deadline, but it's not looking likely, so...good luck, all.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen and Sally.

[Nogrod]

Give us some info as to who you are quoting Boro... well that goes to everyone of you lazybones...

With about twenty pages of the game it's hard to rememeber whose post any one you quote might be from if it's not the one next to your post...

It's not that hard; just after picking the "wrap" function add = and then immediately after it the name of the person quoted (so no empty space between the = and the first letter of the quoted name). It would really make this much easier to follow.

You might think you are answering to a certain person but without the knowledge of your intention and a host of people playing it would take half an hour at least at this point of a game to find whom one is referring to if one doesn't remember it outright.

Like if everyone actually bolded the names of people they refer to or talk about... trying to go through the thread it's easy to pass important things when people do not bold the names... but if they are bolded, they can be found as well.

Should we next make a deal that everyone not following these rules will be lynched first? I'd love that ruling!



EDIT: X'd from Boro onwards... to whom this was addressed...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

To be fair, at least one of these must be an innocent reaction– also the kill does look like a change of tactic on the part of the wolves. Still. Since it's likely enough one or more of the three is a baddie, it makes me wonder if Eomer's death is a deliberate red herring, or perhaps frames someone.

*cough Lommy cough*

And yeah, good point. I thought that was strange, too. Sort of a "Hmn. Not much to say. Let's just all go WAHH!! and see what happens!"

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

The reasoning seems sound, but the fact remains, you voted someone of lesser suspicion over someone of greater suspicion. That's what doesn't sit right with me. That help?

Originally Posted by Boro

I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Fair enough, but I still think it's silly to make that kind of generalization.

Originally Posted by Boro

Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her.

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

And to reply to the Inzil/Nerwen comment, since my quotes bugged out on me - You're right, I did mention "or save Inzil". The focus of my suspicion was still on the Mac-kill attempt, though.

You should reply to some of my other posts, Boro. I'm trying especially hard to participate today - I did my Grimoire stats and had it brought home to me today that I've been modkilled due to RL issues three (or was it four? I think it was three) times.


Edit: X'ed with Nerwen, Sally, Lottie, Nogrod, Lottie.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

My goodness what a novel idea!
Speaking of which, I'm going to try to do that analysis of Bes tonight; I didn't get it done yesterday because I was a naughty girl and put office stuff before WW.

"Morsul's being ridiculous don't listen to him I'm soo innocent see my batting eyes?"

Please unless someone seriously better comes up I know where my vote's going.

[satansaloser2005]

*chuckles*

Ah, Nog, in an ideal world....I'll admit I've gotten really lazy on the bolding though. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't, but when I'm scrolling through a thread I'm always happy to see other people doing it. So often I think we just forget (in the case of bolding at least) and submit our post without doing that kind of stuff.


EDIT: x'd since Nog's

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like if everyone actually bolded the names of people they refer to or talk about... trying to go through the thread it's easy to pass important things when people do not bold the names... but if they are bolded, they can be found as well.

Should we next make a deal that everyone not following these rules will be lynched first? I'd love that ruling!

That would help. I try to, but I forget a LOT. Then again, there would be too many to lynch in one day...no one remembers all of the time.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

"Morsul's being ridiculous don't listen to him I'm soo innocent see my batting eyes?"

Please unless someone seriously better comes up I know where my vote's going.

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.


x'd with Lottie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

We might indeed... but it's so much up to whether there is a counter reveal and what kind of counter reveal it is - and when it is. Let's remember we have no idea what the additional role is.

What do you say when at the crucial Day (question of win or lose) someone comes up with a challenging "reveal", or the Day before? We shouldn't let it come to that.

That is not to say I wouldn't trust Lottie for the time being. But I would hate losing when she would kill the last one of us just looking so darn innocent because of what she said - only what she said (as if she is a wolf she would know what to say).

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.

Thing is, I think that's normal for him. So, despite his logic (or lack thereof) I don't think Morsul's a wolf.

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And if you can't think of a better excuse than that to kill an innocent you deserve to get lynched. I was busy and you accused me for saying that I was busy. Your kung fu is not strong and your logic is not undeniable. Fail.


x'd with Lottie

No people are busy I get that in fact the first few times I said "Eh so she's busy.." but after a few pages of reading the same "Here reading busy be back later" posts over and over I get the feeling it's more an excuse than a reality... That's my reason.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Thing is, I think that's normal for him. So, despite his logic (or lack thereof) I don't think Morsul's a wolf.

Yeah, I'm not sure he is either (which is why I haven't already voted him) but if his shoddy logic and therefore misdirected vote goes to an innocent how hesitant are the wolves going to be to jump on that? (Given the right circumstances) not very, meaning if he's around at End Game we might be in a real pickle.


Still, I'd rather go for one of my top suspects toDay. By the way, Shasta, thanks for putting up that analysis of Wilwa; it was a nice little review for me. Too bad you're another of my top suspects.


EDIT: x'd with Morsul

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We might indeed... but it's so much up to whether there is a counter reveal and what kind of counter reveal it is - and when it is. Let's remember we have no idea what the additional role is.

What do you say when at the crucial Day (question of win or lose) someone comes up with a challenging "reveal", or the Day before? We shouldn't let it come to that.

That is not to say I wouldn't trust Lottie for the time being. But I would hate losing when she would kill the last one of us just looking so darn innocent because of what she said - only what she said (as if she is a wolf she would know what to say).

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves.

EDIT: xed with Morsul and Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves.

EDIT: xed with Morsul and Sally

Heh. Not bloody likely, princess. They're probably too smart for that.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Sally

Heh. Not bloody likely, princess. They're probably too smart for that.

How very rude of them. They should all be lynched.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

How very rude of them. They should all be lynched.

I concur! Come on then, wolves, form an orderly line and we'll assist you one at a time.

[Macalaure]

Nogrod-analysis. I'm intentionally leaving out my posts against him and his posts against me, to try to be objective (and to shorten it, I admit).

Day 1

He has some brief strategy discussion with Brinn, then goes all over the place with his Roa-miscount-thing. He accuses Roa and Nerwen of teamwork for Nerwen's defense of Roa and their shared criticism of Boro. Lommy suggests teamwork between Roa and Nogrod, later she says that at least one of them is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Mnemo

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

Why would Mnemo do this half-hearted defense of Nogrod? It strongly looks like a wolf defending another. Mnemo also stated several times that she thinks both Roa and Nogrod are innocent. Nogrod will defend Mnemo later in #158.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now for the Nog-Roa controversy. We've seen it all before, but this time, Nog looks odder of the two. Secret cobbler is a definitive possibility, but no more than that. Let's keep them both for another Day and see whether Nog comes up with something more substantial.

Pitch takes Roa's side, suspects Nogrod, but not too much: "no more than a cobbler", "Let's keep him for another day". Another defense that looks wolfish.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Has anybody considered Nog has a secret role which is not a cobbler?

What is he hinting at? That Nogrod could be gifted?

Nogrod votes Roa even though the chances of lynching her are slim. He does not try to save Mnemo.


Day 2

Nogrod starts the day in full Roa mode. His case, while overblown, does not look particularly wolfish.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Nog, I found that act you pulled yesterDay extremely puzzling, but with the explanation you've given now, it kinda makes sense. As for your actual case against Roa, I've got to mull it over - it'll be interesting to see how she reacts now, anyway.

Pitch looking for an opportunity to go after Roa is not suspicious. A wolf would do that with an innocent case, too. The way he stepped away from suspecting Nogrod is suspicious, though.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!

Some valid criticism, though nothing outrageous. The "one of the most reasonable people" part is a bit worrisome.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.

This looks like honest suspicion, however, apart from generic suspicions (rubbing wrong way, odd posts), he copies his points. Then again, suspecting generically is something wolves like to do to innocents. All in all, this one looks good.

In #233, Pitch and Mnemo are the first two he discusses. Strange. (Lommy is the third, btw.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pitch I have really hard times with. His vote is bandwagonish and he sure is careful not to suspect anyone - on the contrary he seems to put a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone. Also turning his openly stated reasons (mainly borrowed from others) into just "bad-vibes" looks bad. Mac and Pitch are not both wolves.

Whole lot of points here and no defense of him. Why then the moderate "having hard times with" and not something stronger?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo is a most reasonable person and seems to understand a lot. But she is a bit too nice to everyone carefully not suspecting anyone openly. Her vote was a bit dubious as she first said she would see which one of the two (Pitch / Inzil) would be more probably garnering more votes and then she just tells us she flipped a coin to vote for Zil.

Basically the same he said before, just milder. Repetition of "reasonable" is suspicious, in my opinion.

Mnemo explains herself because Nogrod criticised her twice. (Don't want to check since this thing is already taking too long, but didn't other people raise the same concern?)

From his early vote analysis in #349

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo -> Pitch (based on her analysis on him)

This is interesting. He analyses quite a bit in that short post, but here he leaves it at a very simple "bases on analysis". Many others have criticised her analysis of him as bad (and now we know it w-on-w), but Nogrod doesn't touch it in the least.
As incriminating as this is on its own, he does say that Mnemo's (and Lottie's) votes look worst. He nevertheless refrained from giving reasons, which still looks bad.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Voting-wise it seems Mnemo has made two quite odd votes.

I don't get Mnemo's suspicion on Pitch that because he posts in "chunks" he's suspicious. Quite a strech - not the first one in this game though...

But I think some of Pitchie's posting does look odd and over-careful - at least yesterDay. Here are two prime examples:

(two quotes)

I can't see the point of posting a lot of these... except if one wishes especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way...

What to make of this? On the one hand, he criticises Mnemo now, on the other, he gives merit to some of her points. On the third hand, how is a wolf supposed to act when a fellow is in danger and doing some heavy w-on-w at the same time? Unless you choose to ignore it (which could be interpreted suspiciously later, too), you either go w-on-w for either side, or you end up with something like this...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo's voting looks especially weird and she's not the easy-going voice of reason she was in the early part of D1 - when not yet suspected.

Pitch for being such a nice one taking care not to rub anyone the wrong way but still making an impression he's at it all the time and considers things for the good of us all.

He's been after Mnemo and Pitch consistently this Day, even though each quote taken by itself leaves the w-on-w possibility wide open. It's entirely possible that wolf-Nog has abandoned hope of saving Mnemo by now, but why does he keep on chasing Pitch? Then again, we do have the example of a wolf-on-wolf in Mnemo and Pitch.

Pitch never reacted much to Nogrod's suspicions. Just a very short comment in his vote post. Nog ends up voting Mnemo, unsurprisingly, although he calls it a "hard decision".


Day 3

Nogrod thinks Pitch is less suspicious after Mnemo's guilt - not suspicious. Not sure what to think of Nogrod's doubt about Lottie's claim.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not suggesting lynching Lottie toDay unless some serious counter-reveals emerge, but I'm really quite confused and untrusting of her right now.

Counter-reveals? Who would have counter-revealed it? While this line looks wolfish in the sense of just waiting for a reason to vote Lottie, it makes no sense for a wolf, unless he expected a false claim coming from an ordo(or hunter)-Lottie or in the implausible case that Nogrod and Lottie are the remaining wolves.

The heavy disagreement on Nienna between Nog and Brinn looks very much like one of them is evil. Nogrod votes Nienna, after briefly considering Wilwa.


Day 4

Pitch doesn't say anything and nobody doubts Lottie's claim, so from now on everything gets more vague. I don't see anything pointing in either way, except when Nogrod suggests to still lynch Lottie at some point. If Nog is a w-on-w-ing wolf, why point out other possible w-on-w's so much?


Time is running out on me, and I can't look at toDay now. Bolding the names is taking forever and I can't even really proofread it anymore.

I think everything hinges on Day2. Is it possible that Nogrod went after Mnemo and Pitch in a wolf-on-wolf-ish way or not. I'd dismiss it firmly but for two points: Mnemo and Pitch did wolf-on-wolf, too, and it's a nice way to gain others' trust when there's no seer around. The evidence is very inconclusive, but my bad feeling remains, which is very little reward for hours of work.

I will close quoting Nog himself:

One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!

PS: Everybody who actually read the entire thing, let me know about it and I'll rep you!

[satansaloser2005]

Holy crap, Mac!

*reads*

[Morsul the Dark]

Shall we test this theory? By the way joking that'd be a horrible reason to vote for someone

[satansaloser2005]

Interesting take on Roa/Nogrod and all that, and I do see your point about Mnemo defending him looking a bit wolfish. However, it’s possible that since they’re both....well, a bit similar in style that Mnemo may have just seen Nog as an ally in that regard and decided to defend him. The same could be said of Nog defending Mnemo.

Oooo good point about Pitch though, especially since we don’t (think we) have a cobbler. And I like (or rather find it interesting) that in the post you quoted Pitch feels the need to not only theorize that Nog is gifted, but also point out that he doesn’t mean a cobbler. What did he know that we don’t?

Like I said, him defending Mnemo but not voting to save her is probably just like players helping each other, not necessarily packmates.

Good point too about his phrasing on Mnemo, the “one of the most reasonable” part. However he’s talking about ‘general issues’ he says and then goes on to suspect her, so once again I’ll have to say that his partial defense is the liking of her playing style.

I wonder why he put them in that order. Could be random, could not. And you do have a good point about Pitch, but unless you didn’t quote the whole post he didn’t talk that much about him in that post. He does suspect him but for instance if he suspected someone more at the time this makes sense. And besides, I think “have really hard times with” implies that he thinks he’s guilty. Just my opinion.

Again on the Mnemo thing, I think it’s just similar playing styles and general kindred spirits, not wolvery. Although you have an excellent point on how he dismisses her vote.

From the end of your Day 2 analysis it is possible they (Mnemo and Nog) were wolves together; again, it seems to me not by his earlier posts and attitude in general, but he could have started up on her heavier once he realized she was in trouble and it could make him look good. However, I don’t think he’d have gone so hard on Pitch.

I can’t say much on his opinion of the Lottie situation because I completely agree with him. (Also, when did he suggest she was the hunter?)

Think about it this way; if an entire pack did wolf-on-wolf it would be brilliant, but also extremely dangerous. I think Mnemo may have been up for it but I also know she was just playing for fun (though she definitely wouldn’t have wanted to get bussed in my opinion) so it’ s possible that they didn’t; also, would Pitch agree to something like that? I can’t see Nog going wolf-on-wolf without a reason and/or the consent of his packmates. I’m not sure though.

And yes, they can be sneaky. Which is why I think Nog may be too obvious a choice.


Now I want my rep!!!!!!!

[Nerwen]

Just a note: I'm around, but I can't really do anything until the video file I'm uploading is through, because it's making everything else run veeeeery slooooowwwly... you might almost say at glacial speed...

*runs*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Just a note: I'm around, but I can't really do anything until the video file I'm uploading is through, because it's making everything else run veeeeery slooooowwwly... you might almost say at glacial speed...

*runs*

[Morsul the Dark]

++Sally

Too many posts about nothing and not having time usually followed by lots of posts within a decent amount of time that amount to joking and smileys and fluttering eyes... continuosly promises to contribute follows up maybe twice... Sorry doesn't add up for me but then again with my "Backwards" logic who knows. need an example? the previous few posts range across an hour and a half and amount to nothing but chatty posts and one reply post which is long but comes down to "Got some good points Mac Where's my rep?"

[satansaloser2005]

With votes like this it's a wonder we've not lynched a gifted already. *rolls eyes* I wonder if it's worth my time to look at Morsul or if I should just not bother for now.

Oh, and sorry I didn't point it out; my long post was of course a response to Mac's equally epic Nog post. I thought I'd labelled it but obviously not.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Oh, and sorry I didn't point it out; my long post was of course a response to Mac's equally epic Nog post. I thought I'd labelled it but obviously not.

To be fair that does seem obvious I'd hope people knew what you were talking about I mean those two post take up half the page

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Just a note: I'm around, but I can't really do anything until the video file I'm uploading is through, because it's making everything else run veeeeery slooooowwwly... you might almost say at glacial speed...

*runs*

Go to your room, madam. That was horrible.

Regarding Mac's analysis of Nogrod: After reading it, one thought keeps going through my mind - That's a LOT of wolf-on-wolfism, if Nogrod is furry. You had some very interesting points in the beginning, regarding Pitch and Mnemo's defense of Nogrod. Question, though - did it seem to you that Nogrod needed defending at the time? Because it didn't me.

I want my rep now too.

Edit: X'ed with Morsul, Sally, Morsul.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

To be fair that does seem obvious I'd hope people knew what you were talking about I mean those two post take up half the page

Lol. Yeah, but there was no label on it at all, just "you" this and "you" that. I'd go back and edit a title onto it but I think I'm too lazy.


Speaking of which, I may be going to bed. Sorry, I wanted to be more productive but I'm simply too tired. On the plus side I don't think I'll be at work most of the day tomorrow so I'll be able to be on when I get up. Until then (or sooner if I have trouble sleeping again) preciouses.


EDIT: x'd with Shasta, who also has a good point. There's wolf-on-wolf, and then there's overdoing it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morsul, not that I don't agree that Sally's weird and seems to have no time (she keeps calling me suspicious, but I have no idea why as she hasn't actually said any reasons for suspecting me), but she is a theatre student, plus in college. How much of your suspicion of her stems from evidence, and how much from the fact that you don't think she's participating enough?

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Morsul, not that I don't agree that Sally's weird and seems to have no time (she keeps calling me suspicious, but I have no idea why as she hasn't actually said any reasons for suspecting me), but she is a theatre student, plus in college. How much of your suspicion of her stems from evidence, and how much from the fact that you don't think she's participating enough?

Erm, since when am I back in college? I'm a "big girl" now.

(But thank you for coming to my aid, sir knight. I appreciate it.)

[Morsul the Dark]

Werewolf try to kill each other and Still hug at the end of the day doesn't that make you feel Fuzzy Sally?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Werewolf try to kill each other and Still hug at the end of the day doesn't that make you feel Fuzzy Sally?

Warm and fuzzy yes evil and furry no. Nice try though.

Now let me sleep or I may kill you all in real life.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Morsul,, but she is a theatre student, plus in college. How much of your suspicion of her stems from evidence, and how much from the fact that you don't think she's participating enough?

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

Oh no she's participating Quite a bit it' whether or not her participation contributes anything that I wonder... Not that she isn't fun to play with I just now know how Roa felt dealing with me

[Brinniel]

Sorry for my lack of participation again (as finals get closer, I'm afraid it's only going to get worse). It's late and I know I'll only have a little time tomorrow to post, so I won't be able to say much toDay.

So far, my opinion of Lommy has not changed. Shasta looks a little better toDay, but I'm still worried about him from past Days. Mac has bleeped up my radar a bit. This game he's been playing pretty smoothly; while he receives some attention it's not too much. There's something about his manner that reminds me of when he was a wolf in past games. I don't think I'll vote him toDay since most of my suspicion is gut feeling, which is not enough, but I do think it'd be wise to watch him more carefully. Perhaps Boro as well since he hasn't gotten much attention throughout the game, though I'm a little less worried about him.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

It's a good point to bring up, as too often I've seen wolves react in this manner. If any of them are wolves, I'd imagine it's just one as I can't see both wolves reacting in the same way. Of course, these sort of reactions don't always necessarily mean one has to be guilty, but it certainly doesn't help that all three of them have happened to be on my suspicion list at one time or another.

Okay, I'm going to bed now as I'm already half-asleep and not thinking straight. And I have to get up early anyway.

[Nerwen]

Anyone here?