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#641 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
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RL has really gotten in the way of my participation toDay. Catching up now; should be around until the deadline.
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#642 | ||
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
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Quote:
Anyway, I have yet to vote for anyone for the sole reason of looking too helpful as I agree that really isn't a good reason on its own. Quote:
I referred to my previous post when voting as I had run out of time to write more, but I apologize if my reasons weren't clear at the time. Though, this is the second time I've had to clarify my vote to you so I don't understand why you keep misrepresenting it.
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#643 |
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The voting record
Summarising things to have them all in one place:
Day 1 Lommy -> Boro Lalaith -> Nerwen Morsul -> Lottie Mith -> Lottie 2 Zil -> Nerwen 2 Legate -> Boro 2 Shasta -> Lottie 3 Lottie -> Boro 3 Brinn -> Lottie 4 Boro -> Boro 4 No lynch Day 2 Zil -> Nerwen Lommy -> Eonwe Eomer -> Lottie Lalaith -> Eomer Legate -> Boro Mith -> Zil Nogrod -> Eonwe 2 Brinn -> Nerwen 2 Pervinca -> Zil 2 Nerwen -> Zil 3 Lottie -> Zil 4 Boro -> Zil 5 Eonwe -> Zil 6 Zil lynched Day 3 Eomer -> Lottie Sally -> Lottie 2 Lalaith -> Lottie 3 Brinniel -> Eonwe Legate -> Boro Lottie -> Boro 2 Nerwen -> Nog Eonwe -> Nog 2 Shasta -> Legate * Nog -> Eonwe [After deadline; did not count] Lottie lynched Day 4 Eönwe -> Nogrod Nerwen -> Nogrod 2 Boro -> Legate Shasta -> Legate 2 Nogrod -> Boro Eomer -> Boro 2 Legate -> Boro 3 Lalaith -> Boro 4 Brinn -> Eonwe Boro lynched
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#644 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Our knowledge of roles
To use Kuru's most recent list:
Living Nerwen Shastanis Althreduin satansaloser2005 Eomer of the Rohirrim Lalaith Legate of Amon Lanc Eönwë Brinniel The Dead Morsul the Dark (presumed innocent) Inziladun (innocent according to DT communication) Thinlómien (presumed innocent) Loslote (innocent according to DT communication) Mithalwen (presumed innocent) Boromir88 (?) Nogrod (?) Escaped Pervinca Took (Known innocent) edit: bolding
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#645 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Y'all, I'm sporadically here, but it doesn't look like I'm going to get too much done in the way of big long analysis posts. Sorry to keep harping on RL issues like this.
I will get some thoughts out, though, so people can see where I stand. I think it likely that Sally and Legate are both evil. Sally is a tonal read for me - she isn't being as happy-go-lucky and helpful as she usually is when she's an innocent. Legate is murkier for me, but I've voted him two days in a row and it's gotten very little traction both days - it makes me think he's being saved by his evil partners. In fact, the only person to actually vote Legate with me has been Boro - and I think Boro was probably an ordo like he claimed, he was sounding like an innocent to me before he died. I'm not really sure where that bandwagon came from. Brinniel is hard for me to read because she seems very helpful, but I think I'm being swayed fairly hard by Nerwen's analysis of her. I'd like to try and develop my own read on her, but I'm putting her in the orange category for now. Eonwe has focused on the dead thread quite a bit this game and I can't recall whom he actually suspects as being evil. Lalaith is another person who's been around - I can recall her posting, a fair amount actually! - but I'm not sure who she suspects either. Nerwen I've read as fairly consistently innocent throughout the game and nothing has really changed for me there. I need to reread some of her arguments and make sure I'm not just being blinded by her helpfulness, but I lean good on her. Eomer I also lean fairly good on (whaaaaaat?). I was leaning good-er, but his posts today about how Boro was likely a wolf threw me a bit, as that's not what I was thinking about Boro at all, so I may need to re-evaluate. -------------------- Summation - I would vote Legate or Sally - maybe Brinniel - toDay.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#646 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Both of my top suspects from yesterDay are still alive.
I'm not as sure toDay about Eonwe. Mainly because he's been so quiet the last two Days (due to RL commitments as I understand), so I'd like to hear more from him. I'm still feeling just as uneasy about Legate as I did yesterDay, so I should probably look at him some more. There are other players I should take a look too, but that will need to wait another hour or so when I get home.
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#647 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
Brinn, Day Four #496. Is not surprised by Mith's death as seems a no-trace kill. #498. (Answering me, as I expressed surprise at a no-trace kill so late in the game) Thinks wolves were afraid of hunter/ranger, or afraid of the repercussions of killing off players who suspected them. #499. Analyses Legate. Finds him more suspicious than previously, but no longer thinks he is a newly-turned wolf. Is also suspicious of Nog, Eonwe, me and Boro. #544. Doesn't think Nogrod had an excuse for voting late; criticises him for wasting time with distracting subjects. Finds him suspicious, but also worried he would be an easy lynch target if innocent. Comment: Can't argue with this, as it was exactly my reaction. #561. (Answering Lalaith) Thinks Sally, not Shasta is the biggest submarine. #566. "My top suspects for lynching are Legate and Eonwe. Legate for reasons I stated earlier toDay and my opinion of Eonwe has not changed since yesterDay. Nogrod is another I'm still considering, but I'm feeling slightly hesitant about him." Comment: See, once again I don't like that "my opinion has not changed since yesterDay", given the original reason was so flimsy- and people might not bother to check- leading perhaps to an impression of there being a stronger case against him than there actually is. (Of course Zil pulled the same thing on me and turned out to be innocent, so there's that...) #580. Votes Eonwe. (Eonwe 2, Nog 2, Legate 2, Boro 4). The vote is consistent with her earlier suspicions. Tells us nothing either way. It would point to innocence if Boro turns out a wolf- however, I strongly doubt this is the case. Comments: Hard to say. Much of her posting seems sensible and innocent but there are some definite wolfy indications as well. Hmmn.
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#648 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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#649 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,606
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All right, I have spent some time trying to go through peoples' posts and all and it's awfully exhausting.
All the knowledge combined with this question: who would be the most logical member of a Wolf pack, taking into account all that has happened? Eönwë has been helpful since the beginning, and I would imagine that either he would have been turned at some point, or killed (which he obviously wasn't), or then he's been something since the very beginning (an EW or a Wolf turned on Night 1). I think at least on Day 1 he really looked just helpful. If he had been turned, he could easily just have continued doing that in the same track. What drew my eyes to him the most was his super-safe spot in the Inzil bandwagon, though. Sally has been like the biggest submarine from the start, and she tends to be. She would be quite a logical pick for a Wolf. One thing is, her behavior has been mostly consistent, so at least I would rather imagine her as one from the start rather than one turned at some point (then again, it isn't very difficult to be consistent as a submarine. But I mean there are nuances as to how you act towards people at those rare occassions when you do). Nerwen would be a person I could easily imagine being picked by the EW in the sense that she can hide her nature well; thing is, she has been pretty much consistent and sort of in the background - like I said, many of her posts especially at start actually were helpful (clarifying rules etc) without actual commitment. So if she was a Wolf, I would think she would be one rather from the beginning, or then simply the EW. Brinniel has been quieter in the beginning, then kind of became more involved as the game went on. Could that signify a role shift? She also could be a clever Wolf with staying on the edge of the discussion without attracting too much attention. Sort of floating in the middle. Eomer has been also floating by without attracting the attention or controversy he usually does. I actually haven't thought about this before at all. ToDay, he has also spent practically the whole Day bringing the debate back to theoretical questions about the Nightly events, which, while objectively interesting, don't really specifically lead us anywhere in terms of deciding the lynch. Still, objectively, I don't think I would write him down for a vote. Lalaith was most of the time sounding quite genuine, of course she could be just a Wolf buttering up people. But she is about the only player I feel fairly comfortable about at the moment. Shasta... has been a horrible submarine (thanks to RL, I gather, however), at least in the beginning, then he has had this one-mind track about pursuing me during the last few Days. That is actually also interesting, could it be a shift after he has been turned into a Wolf? In any case, I really can't tell what I am thinking of him. Basically, the problem is that really we don't have any info at all. Like what is one supposed to make of that. I need to think and it is sorta frustrating. Nerwen or Eönwë are probably on top of my list, but seriously, it can be anyone.
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#650 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,992
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I'm a bit surprised that more people aren't wrestling with these numbers. We've had all game to speculate on 'so-and-so feels wolfy to me'; but now there's possibly essential info for us to work with. We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!
But today, we know for certain that the EW is not at maximum wolfage. Either Boro was innocent, in which case we need to work out possible night scenarios - all of which seem less likely to me, given that they're based on so much bad luck for the EW. Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half. All right, time to focus more closely on my top lynch suspects.
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#651 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,876
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Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.
For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy. Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling) Eomer: Quote:
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#652 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,992
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Gotta say, reading back through all days and I'm in great danger of becoming set in my ways. Today has reinforced my suspicions from yesterday. There's something drawing me to Eonwe's side over Brinniel. Shasta and Sally to make up the evil team.
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#653 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,606
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Ok, I have been pretty much mentally exhausted during the last few hours and I also feel tired. I might really want to vote and go to sleep sooner rather than later. And it is late here already.
Quote:
EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith and Eomer
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#654 | |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,995
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Quote:
This is all pretty worrying because it means that if the evil side does have 2 wolves, we need to vote correctly toDay to not lose the game. edit:x-posted with a few
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#655 |
Flame Imperishable
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Votes (corrected)
On reread, it also turns out that by borrowing Nog's list here, I missed out a vote, and also forgot to include the empowerment. So here is a corrected post.
Day 1 Lommy -> Boro Lalaith -> Nerwen Morsul -> Lottie Mith -> Lottie 2 Zil -> Nerwen 2 Legate -> Boro 2 Shasta -> Lottie 3 Lottie -> Boro 3 Brinn -> Lottie 4 Boro -> Boro 4 No lynch Day 2 Zil -> Nerwen Lommy -> Eonwe Eomer -> Lottie Lalaith -> Eomer Legate -> Boro Mith -> Zil Nogrod -> Eonwe 2 Brinn -> Nerwen 2 Pervinca -> Zil 2 Nerwen -> Zil 3 Lottie -> Zil 4 Boro -> Zil 5 Eonwe -> Zil 6 Zil lynched Day 3 Eomer -> Lottie Sally -> Lottie 2 Lalaith -> Lottie 3 Brinniel -> Eonwe [+1, empowered] Legate -> Boro Lottie -> Boro 2 Nerwen -> Nog Eonwe -> Nog 2 Shasta -> Legate * Nog -> Eonwe [After deadline; did not count] Lottie lynched Day 4 Eönwe -> Nog Nerwen -> Nog 2 Boro -> Legate Shasta -> Legate 2 [+1, empowered] Sally -> Eonwe Nog -> Boro Eomer -> Boro 2 Legate -> Boro 3 Lalaith -> Boro 4 Brinn -> Eonwe Boro lynched Ok, definitely time to put my thoughts down about people. There's just been so much to think about.
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#656 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Hm, that may be a good catch.
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#657 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,992
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Lal, that's all I've been posting about today! The permutations of that possibility. Including in the post you quoted from.
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#658 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 3,027
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Sally has texted me and requested that I report to the village that she's had some trouble getting online, but she should be around shortly.
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#659 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,876
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Quote:
Speaking of framing...I have a feeling that Nerwen is trying set Brinn up.This could just be because I don't find Brinn particularly suspicious myself.
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#660 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
As for why I'm loyal to Eonwe- perhaps he just doesn't strike me as guilty. However, there is more than one way to be an "innocent" in this game- I'm surprised that doesn't seem to factor into anyone's calculations, actually.
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#661 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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No I'm not. Just an honest analysis, trying to puzzle her out.
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#662 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,992
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Lal, I'm happy to explain anything that you think is unclear in my post. I'm saying, we haven't encountered a single wolf all game. Now, in previous days, (when we were waiting on info about Zil and Loslote) that still doesn't tell us much, because a million things might have happened, so speculating on their roles at those times wouldn't really have got us anywhere. However, today when we can see for sure that there are not 3 wolves, then our explanations for what has happened are more limited; and we can now openly, and productively, speculate on Boro's role before we get info from the Dead Thread.
What are you suggesting, Nerwen?
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#663 |
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Nice way to get yourself off the hook toDay, eh?
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#664 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
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#665 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Brinniel suspecting Legate gives me pause. Hmm.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#666 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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To clarify, I still think Legate is evil but I'm wondering about Brinniel now.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#667 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,992
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Half an hour before deadline...
![]() Ok, back to have another look.
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#668 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,876
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Quote:
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#669 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,876
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I'm not trying to out anyone. I just want to go to bed. *whimper*
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#670 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,606
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Quote:
EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas, Eomer, and two Lals
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#671 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
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More of us were ready to do that, and then I come back to this.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#672 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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++Legate
I haven't seen anything to change my mind, and the fact that the Dead thread chose me to empower yesterday just adds to my conviction.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#673 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,876
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Ok Nerwen. I think this is the end game here. I want to go to bed and I'm going to vote for Eonwe unless you give me a better reason not to.
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#674 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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A better reason than me telling you I'm a gifted who has been told his role? Really?
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#675 |
Flame Imperishable
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If you're telling the truth, I think we might want to consider a Legate-Eomer wolf(/EW)-pack, given the support they've been giving each other toDay, without actually sharing too many direct suspicions.
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#676 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
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First of all, just want to say that I love werewolf.
![]() Second, this is just so massively, massively suspicious. The wrong lynch today very possibly costs the game. But Nerwen knows this looks suspicious. So, the EW has been thwarted 3 times? Right?
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#677 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
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Some more thoughts....
If Boro is innocent that sudden bandwagon against him is troublesome, and I'd want to take a closer look Lalaith and Eomer who have pretty flown under my radar. If he turns out to be guilty however, I would say both of them look pretty innocentish. I mean, why set up a last minute lynch for a wolfish Boro when there were other lynch candidates to consider? I don't think Legate's vote yesterDay tells us as much since he was next in line on the lynching block and his vote could have been made out of self-preservation. He did vote for Boro on all other Days, so Boro's guilt might make him look a bit better. Hounding on a fellow wolf throughout the entire game would be quite the risk, though not impossible. His opinions are still pretty non-committal, so without knowing Boro's identity, my feelings about him haven't really changed. When Nerwen suspects someone, she is quite aggressive about it. I don't know, perhaps that is just her playing style. But I don't like how she is manipulating my past posts. When doing a post-by-post analysis of someone, it would be better if you used actual quotes or links rather than rephrasing what's been said. Sally does also worry me some. She is quite a submarine in that she hasn't posted a lot of substance. Just enough to be an active participant without really being noticed. I feel better about Shasta because as I said before, while his post count is low, his posts seem more substantial and feel more sensible to me. Eonwe is around, but so far he has only been posting lists and such...nothing of real substance. EDIT: X-ed with a bunch of posts...um, what going on here?
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#678 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Anyway, I think I will trust my jewel's judgement- plus I don't want to split votes, given the push to lynch someone I know to be innocent:
++Legate Edit: x'd since my last post.
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#679 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,876
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Nerwen, the rules clearly say you wouldn't be told anyone elses role as a gifted.
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#680 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,992
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Lal, the GW could have informed gifted Nerwen about known innocents.
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