WW XXIIX - Queer Lodgings

[Durelin]

"You don't need a weather man/To know which way the wind blows..."

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

08:46am Kath - Nogrod (Nogrod - 1)
11:16am Menel - Rune (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1)
12:36pm Durelin - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 1)
12:57pm Valier - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 2)
03:51pm Nogrod - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3)
07:40pm Holby - Lommy (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1)
09:15pm Lommy - Kath (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1)
09:34pm Rune - Ang (Nogrod - 1; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1)
10:25pm Ang - Nogrod (Nogrod - 2; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1)
10:25pm Nilp - Volo (Nogrod - 2; Rune - 1; Kath - 3; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1; Volo - 1)
10:43pm Boro - Kath (Nogrod - 2; Rune - 1; Kath - 4; Lommy - 1; Ang - 1; Volo - 1)

I really need to go now, as I still have an exam in German that I need to study for. Since it took me a while to make this, and I'd be too lazy to make it again, I'll just leave this as it is and come back to it later to do the promised analysis.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Voloin, you're so cheerfully convinced in the rectitude of your own theories that I think you might very well be innocent.

I really suggest, though, that you put your pursuit of me aside. I know letting go of hobby-horses is very hard - I myself couldn't help suspecting Bofgrod and Nori, which turned out to be a stupendous blunder.

This is nice and all, but I don't go by "trust me, trust you"... I have severe time limits that sertainly reduce my use, but I'll try to be of help.

Nilp, I see you're trying to be of help, but why to be hunting only me? Am I getting close to something?
You're trying to be too safe. Making such diagrams is useful, but it doesn't tell your opinions...

I have my list full, but Nilp falls there behind the three I mentioned before.

[Meneltarmacil]

Durelin, I am honestly confused as to what you're trying to say in that last post.

Anyhow, I think I'll cast my vote now.

++Thinlómien

[Volo]

I think Lommy just had too little time to write posts of more reason (I'll check them when I find time myself). She doesn't have internet at home and her week has been pretty busy, I think.

I'm actually really sad, Anguirel or Anglock Holms isn't a person to be analysed by my manner. It's hopeless... I'd be really relieved if somebody with a skill in thinking more clearly would take the job to go through Anglock.

[Durelin]

Menel, do you not understand that if we don't get a Wolf today we are in dire straits? You shrug off your vote with a "Oh, I think I'll just vote now"...not that who you vote for matters.

My quoting of Bob Dylan was not merely because...well, it's Bob Dylan, but also because your post was the perfect example of going whichever way the wind blows. And I didn't need anyone to tell me that. But apparently I'm your weatherman. Or something. You know what, I just like the song...

But I still have an issue with your sudden switch of focus.

You go from "Rune is almost definitely a Wolf" to "Oh, what compelling reasoning against Lommy; thanks for pointing that out, Durelin" and "I'm inclined to vote for her" and then straight to voting for her...with a whole lot of nothing in between.

Originally Posted by Volo

This is nice and all, but I don't go by "trust me, trust you"

I don't think he meant for you to just trust him...I think he just wants you to branch out in your suspicion and analysis. Unless of course you know who you want dead.

Originally Posted by Volo

I'll try to be of help

I look forward to it.

Originally Posted by Volo

Nilp, I see you're trying to be of help, but why to be hunting only me? Am I getting close to something?
You're trying to be too safe. Making such diagrams is useful, but it doesn't tell your opinions...

Just as you pointed out about yourself, Nilp has expressed an issue with time, and said in his last post that his actual analysis of the votings lists will come later.

As for the "why to be hunting only me?"...well, why are (or were?) hunting only Ang (perpetually) and myself? If you're really, seriously suspicious of myself and/or Ang then keep letting us know why. But after all you've said about Ang, you have yet to back up your words and vote for him.

Not that I'm asking you to vote, nor specifically for him. Please, please, everyone...still hold off as long as you can. We have yet to hear a word from Holby or Lommy, we've barely heard anything from Valier, and Nilp will hopefully have an interesting analysis soon. And our Seer might even have a revelation for us...? But I imagine if he/she hasn't stepped forward yet, they don't have much of anything for us...

And my dear Volotson, Anglock's methods are as simple as yours and mine: pure induction. I'll see about going through his posts, even though it is nearing 1 am here...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilp, I see you're trying to be of help, but why to be hunting only me? Am I getting close to something? (Volo)

Is that hint of a Gift?

You're trying to be too safe. Making such diagrams is useful, but it doesn't tell your opinions... (Volo)

Well, I'm sorry if you feel that way, but I prefer to work with the best empirical data I have. You can all you want about some villager or another, but when you vote you make a solid stand for or against someone. Now if only we could get one Wolf toDAY . . . we might bring these halls tumbling down on the others. (Our apologies to Beornómien if that does happen. )

Curse this computer! It's taking so long to load the pages. I need to see what certain people have said to do an analysis. But I must go: French class this time. I hope to be back before the deadline.

[Durelin]

Insanely long post... May want to just skip to my conclusions. I'll tell you this up here, though: this analysis has helped me organize my own thoughts, and strengthened my opinions. I am going to have to keep assuming Ang innocent. If he is a Wolf, he is far too good of one than I could ever even expect him to be. And I am going to continue with my top suspects, as I realize once again I'm not the only one who has been continually troubled by them.

No, there are no links really. Why? Because it's nearly 2 am here. I am not making links till 3.

Just to add on one thing to what you already did for Day 1: Ang returns right before the deadline, and wonders about Volo's flower motif, and then wonders how Spawn ended up with two votes. (I never really paid much attention to that...spawn died that Night. Were the Wolves trying to frame Ang?)

Day 2

He finds Volo a suspect, finding his mentioning of a Twin hint in one of dancing spawn's posts a possible gloat. Says Volo's Eomer vote does not mean much, but he does suspect him. (I beg to differ on that - he knew that those around at that time apparently felt, or seemed to feel, that they should all cooperate. But everyone was hesitating on voting...then Volo votes for Eomer, and it stacks up against him from there.)

Says that Valier's "elusiveness" worries him, even though he knows she's sick. (I agreed, and still do.) Determines that perhaps it isn't a bad idea to go back to suspicions of Day 1, and so is tempted to vote for Kitanna. He misses the vote. (That seems rather innocent to me. He doesn't try terribly hard to give an excuse, and yet he draws attention to the fact that he did not vote. If he was a Wolf, he would have been sneakier about it...or he would have been more likely not to miss the vote at all.)

Day 3

He wonders if Kitanna was right about fearing Boro. Thinks Nogrod opened the way to Lommy voting for Kitanna. Is troubled by Volo's "such wolves are for the Seer to catch" comment about Nogrod and Boro. Suggests the possibility of the Nogrod, Boro, Volo trio.

Defends himself and his criticism of the lynching of innocents, as it was suggested by Boro that he did this to make himself look better.

"The wolves' most deadly weapon, my friends, is consensus." Draws a parallel between one of Boro's posts and one of Volo's, saying that "Unintentionally or through ingenious subtlety, these two players here both encourage a kind of defeatism, suggesting that certain suspects are off-limits, not to be worried about, safe to assume about. That worries me."

Proposes there should be a closer look at Holby. Says he intends to vote for Volo. Thinks Boro is probably innocent.

Defends himself for the same things as before. Does not like focus on same people, same ideas, "consensus." Menel follows up with a screamingly duelist post, Ang reiterates.

Sparring with Boro.

Asks Nogrod questions.

Analyzes Holby HERE. << I think this is good to look at. He concludes she is likely innocent.

Nogrod suspicion... Has an issue with the idea of the "valuable villager," finds it possible that Nogrod and Boro had a "phoney war."

Expresses that the Seer might be in great danger, and we cannot rely on him/her.

Votes Nogrod.

Remarks about Nog and Boro's "love-hate"ness. Predicts Kath is innocent to annoy everyone (at least Boro in particular) further.

ToDay, Day 4

Feels like a fool. (Not alone in that one!) Thinks Boro might have been killed because the Wolves thought he might be the Seer. Says it's interesting to note that Menel was one of Boro's main targets.

Says he is especially suspicious of Menel and Rune, for trying to keep the suspicion on the "big three."

Suspicion of Rune increases, and Volo and Lommy get added to his list, somewhat by association. Says he's still "unsettled by" Menel.

Says he does not suspect Durelin much, or Valier or Nilp.

Defense in response to Volo's start on an analysis. Just read it.

Sugests that Volo stop focusing so much of his attention on him. Replaces Volo on his supect list with Holby because of her comment on Nogrod and Boro being duelling innocents. (So? I thought them to be innocent, too. But then again, I could be in cahoots with Holby, couldn't I?)

Originally Posted by Ang

Bomburlass - concision, typical inconspicuousness and seems to know a little too much.

Beorn - formed general alliance with Bofgrod and played something of a second fiddle in accusing me, from my point of view a known innocent. Nailed Eomi's coffin early on. A combination with Bomburlass would indicate a sly wolf-for-wolf vote at one point...hmmm. (Yes, Voloin, I intend to keep saying hmmm. Ha.)

Meneltarbo/Rune - I tend to think that one of these excludes the other, but can't quite decide on which of them looks more wolvish.

And here's my response to you, Ang:

Alright, I know we're into this giving up on the old, tired out suspicions, but you said so yourself, when you began considering voting for Kitanna, that going back to original suspicions might be a good idea. Well, for how long has Volo been discussed seriously as a Wolf? Might it be time to actually back up all our talking with a vote? I am incredibly guilty of not doing this, but I don't think I'm the only one.

I say it again, and I say this to everyone: there are three wolves left alive. We've thought on more than one occasion that we had a crafty Wolf, one hidden under so much that it took some brilliant induction to find him/her. But we haven't found one yet, have we? So why don't we go with what is right before our eyes, what we've been looking at all along... Forget about all the possibilities, and all the intricate ways you can connect people together and to wolfishness. There are too many ways.

Ask yourself, and not just because your therapist tells you to: Who have you consistently felt uneasy about?

For me, it's been Volo and Menel more than anyone else...because I always find Wolfishness about them, but then end up voting for someone else because I think what I see is too "obvious" to be true wolfishness. But everyone knows that things hiding in plain sight are the hardest to find when you expect them to be hiding!

[Durelin]

Just realized something interesting...

Menel was one of Boro's main suspects. But one of the last analyses Boro did was of Lommy. Menel votes for Lommy. Coincidence is funny sometimes, isn't it.

Another thing I find interesting is that one of his comments on Volo's general behavior is similar to his comment on Lommy's general behavior:

Originally Posted by Menel

Okay, I've gone over Volo's posts, and basically I find him rather difficult to place. I can't really find much of a pattern in the people he's been suspicios of...

Thinlomien's suspicions are all over the place and don't leave much of a trail to follow

And yet it takes very little to get him to vote for Lommy, while he does not seem to hold any suspicion of Volo.

[Thinlómien]

Dear Anguirel, you accused me of being a second fiddlist. Now, I'm afraid, I will be the first one. You look furrier than any decent being has a right to be. I do not wish to repeat every point Boro, Nogrod, I and others have made against you at the moment, but you really seem wolvish. I'm very sad that although you have gathered a fair amount of suspicion, you've not been lynched this far. I hope today will make a change.

If I had to say who the companions were, I'd go for Menel, recalling what I said and thought yesterDay. Also, Ang who seems very wolvish to me, is suspecting Menel, but not enough to put him in his suspect list. Smells like wolf+wolf -behaviour.

Originally Posted by Ang

I think that his [Boro's] behaviour towards the end of yesterday may have suggested to his murderers that he was the Seer.

Yes, it might, but I think they (or should I say you) attempted to kill him the night before too. If Holby is right and the "he" was Oddwen's slip... Or maybe the wolves thought they'd have two advantages at once by killing Boro: getting rid of a vocal and intelligent villager who is able to be around late (can sometimes cast the decisive vote) and of getting rid of a probable seer. That's how I see it.

I don't, though, think that Nori was killed with the primary purpose of framing me, though that would have been a desirable side-effect. I think that his behaviour towards the end of yesterday may have suggested to his murderers that he was the Seer.
. . .
I don't think that Nori's suspects will necessarily be helpful - a frame-up, intentional or not, is so very likely

Though in other posts you've been saying Boro's death was not probably a frame-up, that little flip-flop didn't escape me.

Originally Posted by Ang, about me

formed general alliance with Bofgrod and played something of a second fiddle in accusing me

Now that the chap is dead, I can as well say it. I thought him to be the seer because of one thing he said. Though his behaviour rang wolvish to me at times, I slightly defended him, because there was a risk of him being the seer. I'm very glad he wasn't the seer and the seer's still alive. As to Noggie thinking I'm innocent, I've no idea where that came from, except of my true nature shining through...


Ang seems pretty bad to me right now. Him taking the lead doesn't ease my suspicions at all. The big leader-like guys (Boro and Noggie) dead, he gladly steps to the boots and starts to steer the village his way. That is not incriminating per se, but if he's a wolf, that's a very bad thing.

Menel looks bad too. I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that way, though.

Durelin has been quite helpful but I think she's so wrong about Ang... The wolves wouldn't do too bad forming alliances at this phase, when two agreeing people can really make the balance sway. I don't know what to think of her.

Rune is a bit confusing, but his posts from toDay seem innocentish... But it's too fatal a mistake to trust anyone at this phase, and as Rune still lays in my "gray" zone, I don't trust him either...

Volo's a tough one to read... I can't say anything reasonable of him and it bugs me. Mostly he's his normal self though, and that could speak for his innocence. I don't know.

Valier and Holby don't look too suspicious either. But, with the little amount of talk from them, they could be wolves as well: there's too little to go on. Please, talk more.

Anguirel has good reasoning about Nilp's innocence. I'd like to hear more of Nilp's suspicions anyway...

I will be back in a few hours. If there's anything you wish to ask me, please do so.

[Thinlómien]

My philosophy teacher deserves to be assigned to the Shire! She said we don't need to be present in the lessons today if we hand her our assignments on Thursday. How could she know I was in the mist of a heated ww-game?

I know why I'm convinced of Ang's guilt, but I see you others maybe don't. In the next 2 hours I will be making an angalysis and if, as I assume, I find it incriminating, also a case against him.

[Anguirel]

It's fortunate that I think you a wolf, because a schism between two innocents as loud as us would be a terrible misfortune...

[Anguirel]

I wish to make another of my astonishingly accurate predictions.

Beorn will shortly produce a painfully long "analysis" of everything I've written, in which every joke, insult, defence or attack will be construed as commands to secret accomplices, in which hairs will be split (ho ho) to produce accusations of inconsistency, and whose conclusions I could probably write now, in my sleep.

The rest of the day will then consist in obsessing about whether or not I am guilty. I won't bother to defend myself. An innocent, though quite probably not me, will be hanged in the general confusion.

It would be very nice if for once my prediction didn't come true.

I really wish I were a wolf, because if so I would currently have an ego five times larger than phantom's. But I regretfully insist that that is not the case.

[Anguirel]

And a final point - Beorn, your command of the Anglo-Saxon tongue is remarkable, so please read my quotations that you believe constitute a "flip-flop" with more meticulousness. They do not contradict each other.

One says a frame-up was not the primary purpose - that purpose being to kill a Seer.

The other refers to a frame-up, intentional or unintentional. Even if intentional, I'm certain it was not the primary intent.

I'm sure your grasp of philosophy is up to these elementary concepts, so I think you're attempting to twist my words for your own gain. Beware. On verbal subjects I am at my spikiest.

I do not suspect Volo, by the way, and, sad to say, increasingly have doubts about Durelin. I've taken her innocence too much for granted in the past. However, with such an excellent foe as Miss Beorn to hand I am most unlikely to vote for Durelin.

[Durelin]

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#6 Day one nonsense about his kingship etc. Asks about the twins.
#12 Thanks spawn for information, says "Does this mean, though, that these Twins have not infiltrated the Wolves? I am still somewhat bemused." Surely a wolf would want to be clear about this kind of things, but why ask it one the game thread, I wonder. Maybe spawn was right on this... Mildly defends Menel in an in-character-manner.
#15 More kingship-nonsense. In-character accusation against Farael.
#26 Says that Boro was "flatteringly servile" earlier, says "I would be suspicious, but then, after all, I do deserve it, being the King Under The Mountain and all." Says will probably vote Farael, keeps reasoning in-character. Was he serious? Doesn't like Boro's innocence-declarations and notes that Holby was quick to attack Durelin.
#27 Says good night. Why is he this earnest to point out he's leaving? Why bother? In werewolf people come and go... Maybe he's more nervous than his silky and royal robe implies...
#58 Says Kitanna evades suspicion better as a wolf, wonders her highlighting "this early". Says he's still inclined to vote Farael, wonders that I have not spoken much yet, but thinks there will be a change.
#60 Reacts to rune's vote for Farael. Says he won't vote him unless he really is suspicious. Now, that is reasonable, yes, in a way, but... This makes me feel he deliberatedly wants to vote someone who won't get lynched on Day1. I say that is escaping the responsibilty. And who'd like to do this... A wolf, by any chance?
#68 Says Rune was mistaken about him being about to vote Durelin. Makes an interesting, yet unlikely theory about Rune acting against Durelin. Notes also Holby's and spawn's suspicions of Durelin. Somehow, this strikes me as something one could say against a wolf companion's suspectors... Says that the wolves probably aren't backing each other's suspicions at this phase.
#76 Votes Boro, because he (Boro) suspects him (Ang) (how clever to get away of reataliatory suspicion of one's suspectors by joking about it, certainly could be interpreted as wolvish) and because Boro said "If Gloanna be lynched, I'll be after Lord Anguirelshield and Kath tomorrow." I find it reasonable for Ang to find that suspicious. After all, that kind of behaviour is suspicious.
#78 Jokingly answers spawn's "accusation" that he was not his normal bright self.
#98 Wonders about Volo's flowers. Asks about deadline (just before the deadline) and agrees with me that spawn getting two votes is weird. If he was around this late, why did he vote so early? Anything can happen in a few hours, for example a wolf may slip something very incriminating against him/herself. Anyone who's able should preferably vote as late as they can to catch these. I smell a wolf playing it safe, voting so early.

Day2
#128 Informs of his difficulties in getting online. says he'll be back and that "Voloin case" looks interesting.
#148 Agrees that he tends to vote Boro on day1, explains it's because of past experiences. Repeats his point (the one he had in #76) against Boro. says that it was cruel that Eomer was killed and said if he could (had he saved casting his vote), he would have saved him. His famous you-did-it-wrongs begin. Note his own words about saving casting his vote. Why on earth did he not save it? Says can see Volo's catching and presenting spawn-twin-hint as wolvish, says he suspects him. Says: "It's possible that Dwalin was targetted purely because she'd voted for the lynch-victim and thus left little in the way of a trail. She was also one of the most helpful analysts around, in my view." Wolf or not, he makes quite a lot of sense occasionally. This is one of those points.
#160 Says won't expand the vote list, though he'd like to see Boro there. Replies to me about Durelin's false view about my dangerousness as evil saying it probably isn't incrimintaing. I agree, it isn't, but I wasn't actually suggesting it was. Anguirel seems quite quick to defend Durelin, hmmm.... Says Valier's a bit suspicious and that he's tempted to vote Kitanna.
No vote.

Day 3
#188 Apologises for missing the vote. Notes about Farael's behaviour. advises the seer to stay hidden. Why? Is he trying to seem helpful and trustworthy? Or is he trying to get the seer (who he thinks might have been targeted during the night) to take his/her information to the grave, knowing no one will be protecting the one Farael was protecting the next night? Call Kit "poor Gloanna" and wonders if she was right about Boro being guilty. Expresses suspicion of Boro again... I think it's pretty unfair of him to cry over the lynch yesterday while he himslef said he could vote Kit. Also, the whole Boro-affair seems incriminating. I just see him as trying to attack Boro in the night, and when failing, trying to get him lynched during the day. I see him as desperately wanting to get rid of Boro. maybe Boro seemed seerish... because of his suspicions of Ang?
#190 Says seeing Kit's lasts words as a confession seems suspicious. Based on that suspects me and Nogrod, more him than me, since, in Ang's opinion, eased the way for me to vote Kit. That even wasn't true. My vote-post xed with Nogrod's confession-speculation. Ang could have checked that, did he really have suspicions. But a wolf who has only theatre-suspicions wouldn't maybe check... Wonders if Volo is allied with Boro and/or Noggie, since he says wolves like them are for the seer to catch.
#196 Doesn't want to turn the day to a trial against him as it's "waste of time". Is it, really? Echoes rune's point about Boro's suspicions against him (Ang) aren't very valid. Says: "You can't have it both ways, Nori88 - accuse me of stupidity, but don't accuse me of cunning. " Admits flip-flopping on Kit, says should have defended her properly and voted. What?!? He said he could vote her, and that was the last thing he said about her on day2. admits he could be a cunning wolf. Oh, he must be enjoying this... If you are a wolf, Nori88, you're getting surprisingly hot under the collar - you've been known to behave with more savoir-faire - so I'm willing to grant you a stay of execution. Says: "If you are a wolf, Nori88, you're getting surprisingly hot under the collar - you've been known to behave with more savoir-faire - so I'm willing to grant you a stay of execution." repeats suspicion of a Volo + Boro/Nogrod wolf duo.
#198 Notes that wolves' most deadly weapon is consensus. says Volo and Nogrod encourage defeatism.
#200 Compares himself to Kitanna, saying wonders if shares her fate, (is trying to sound like a martyr, I see) and says is too tired to argue with Boro. Intends to vote Volo and wants to have a look at Holby. Thinks Boro innocent.
#201 Claims he wasn't critical of Kit's lynch. Yes he was, afterwards, though not as strongly as some people let us believe, I admit. Denies spending the morning "pointlessly lamenting the dead". Says will concentrate on Holby and Volo rather than (Boro and Nogrod?).
#203 Asks people not to concentrate on "possibly mutually misguided duelists". I see, he's leaning on the common conception that the bitterest fights in ww take place between to innocents. Quite clever of him.
#205 Wants to inquisit Nogrod. In-character banter with Boro.
#210 Asks Nog questions: Why did he take Kit's words as a confession? Why was he so happy to follow the suspicion consensus? Does he himself thinks he has a lot of power in the village?
#237 Analyses Holby. Cocludes she's innocent, but used by some vocal players, mainly Nogrod. Plans to vote him. Would you like to elaborate, Ang? How and when is she used?
#239 Accuses Nogrod of elitism and criticizes his way of thinking.
#240 Informs when he will vote. Again... Is he nervous?
#242 Says it's quite obvious that wolves went for the seer last night. I agree with him, though.
#244 Says we shouldn't trust the seer too much and partly based on that votes Nogrod. If the wolves killed the seer next night, wouldn't this make him look good... I'm more and more confident he's a wolf, and a clever one...
#250 "Bofgrod and Nori are in a state of flirtatious love-hate I can't bring myself to like. Oh, and as I know this made me so very popular before - I predict Kath is innocent." It's easy predict, if knows all the wolves...

Day 4
#254 Encourages people to speak. Good! At least we agree about something! Says Boro's behaviour yesterday maybe suggested seerdom to the wolves. Says the seer should come out, but on the other hand, shouldn't. In a way that sounds quite suspicious, but I'm not accusing him for that; I'm doing that kind of things all the time! Says: "I don't think that Nori's suspects will necessarily be helpful - a frame-up, intentional or not, is so very likely - but it might be interesting to note that one of his main targets was Meneltarbo." He's intentionally swaying attention from himself, one of boro's main suspects. Tsk, tsk. Also suspects Menel and Rune for suspecting mainly him, Boro and Noggie.
#259 Says wolves don't generally do farme-ups and concludes all the targeted ones this far are thus probably those who look seerish to the wolves. Agreed, that's why you're guilty, dear Ang. Suspects Rune and Volo/me for an alliance against him and thus wolfdom. The three that are easy to make a case against and get lynched. How crafty. Thinks Durelin innocent, and Valier and Nilp maybe too. The three generally trusted ones. How crafty. Says his main suspects are Rune, me and Volo, but Menel worries him too.
#262 Asks Volo to read more carefully. Says every kill frames people. Surprise, surprise. Implies Volo might be mistaken by comparing him to Lestrade. What a wonderful way of telling him he's wrong, doing it that politely and in a friendly way. Masterful job.
#264 Asks Volo to put his pursuit of him (Ang) aside. Replaces Volo with Holby in his suspect list. Trading trust, are we?!? Anguirel, I wound't be surprised if you howled. Thinks Holby suspicious because she thought Noggie and Boro were dueling after they had stopped it in Ang's opinion. Says that Holby, I ( was allied with Nogrod, played the second fiddle in accusing him, nailed Eomer's coffin "early on") and Menel/Rune, can't decide which.

That's everything this far.

That guy really talks too much.

He uses humour as a weapon. It's dangerous. you never know when he's serious and when not, and so he can always say "I was not serious" or "I was serious" afterwards, what looks best for him.

Also, he seems a bit nervous at times. That's not his normal innocent self-like.

I'm convinced he's a wolf. If you're not, after my analysis, consider Boro's death. The wolves probably thought him the seer. Who was Boro's main suspect early on? Ang. He himself says the kill was probably not an intentional frame-up. I bet the wolves were scared of Boro after he had "nailed" Ang.

edit: xed with Angx2 + Dury

[Thinlómien]

Haha, at least the first of your predictions is correct, Ang.

I'm not interested to engage in a verbal contest about meanings of words and sentences with you, Ang, knowing your undeniable skill with words and my broken English. I accept your explanation about that flip-flop. Anyway, I was mistaken, or you were flip-flopping, since I interpreted the "unintentional or not" part as it being possible that Boro's death was an intentional frame-up, whether you meant it so, or not.

Now, schoolwork calls, but I'll be back in a few hours.

[Durelin]

Okay, so I had a humongously long post and I just lost it all.

Screw it.

VOLO IS A WOLF.

Ang is innocent.

I didn't get a dream on Night 1.
I dreamt of Nogrod on Night 2.
I dreamt of Ang on Night 3.
Volo Night 4.

I knew he was a Wolf...wish I had seriously gone after him sooner. I might be dead by now, though, if I had.

I think Menel and Valier are his fellow wolves.

Read over Volo's and their posts now, if you can, knowing he is a Wolf.

Sorry for letting you innocent guys waste time, but I had a myriad of possible plans for toDay, which I had outlined in detail but now lost... Basically, I hoped we could somehow get a Wolf toDay, and then I'd somehow survive the Night. I planned on dreaming of Valier.

Looking at everyone else, though, I actually become more certain that the trio is the most likely. I suppose Holby could fit in there, as I don't think Volo or Menel ever seriously went after her, but... And Menel's going after Rune could have been an attempt to distance himself from him.

I think Val's silence today except for her one supposed to look helpful but really more like an attempt to get the Seer to slip up or to out themselves is much more incriminating than Holby's silence.

The Menel and Volo connections sometimes seem too obvious to me, but hello...all three Wolves are still alive! And personally I think it's because of overthinking. Re-read some of my earlier stuff for more on that if you need to. Or just start reading over the likely three's posts...now there's a better idea.

Really Menel could even go toDay. His vote for Lommy, way before the deadline, really really bothers me. He doesn't even say he has to vote then. He just does.

I don't know...I've only gotten 3 hours of sleep.

So, Menel, Val, got anything for me? Will you guys finally turn on your Wolf pal? Perhaps you'd like to suggest Volo and I are totally in cahoots? Because we totally are. His attempt earlier toDay to get me lynched that went nowhere...yeah, total attempt to distance himself from me. Not that I've been going after him of and on for a couple days now...

Okay, so, be good...and I'll hopefully be back with more thoughts. Though most of my thoughts are already out there...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, class is over. (That French exam was agonising to see . . . ) Here's the promised DAY 3 analysis--it's disappointing, though.

One can group the voters into three groups: the Kath bandwaggon, the duelists's votes, and . . . miscellaneous. I think it's not a far-fetched to imagine a Wolf in each group.

Under the first group we have Durelin, Valier, and Lommy. To say something about the victim, Kath was a bit suspicious to begin with, but his biased analysis of Nogrod (qq.v. 213, 218) was the nail that cost the kingdom (or something like that).

Durelin's reason for voting (q.v. 219) was sound. GOING HOTLY AFTER SOMEONE WITHOUT CIRCUMSPECTION AT A CRITICAL PHASE OF THE GAME IS A BAD MOVE (a warning to all out there, even myself.) I see little to be suspicious of her at the moment.

Valier accepted the arguments set forth at face-value (q.v. 230.) Quite suspicious, and added to that she throws suspicion at me out of nowhere, alluding to my lack of sensible posts.

Lommy's vote lacks reasoning (I did try looking for one, but apparently she believed Boromir 'has good points, especially that one about Kath.' (q.v. 234) In the same post she answers Boro's suspicion of her. Interesting . . .

Also, she trusts a wolf-Menel to be able to reveal himself easier. Perhaps, it can be read to mean that if Menel is lynched and turns out to be furry, she can get credit for it. Hmmm . . .

Next, the 'duel'-voters:

Menel's reason to vote for Rune (q.v. 207) is rather feeble, and it has been even more weakened due to Nogrod's innocence, yet he holds on to it toDAY until Durelin tells him that his analysis of Lommy makes more sense--see 277 then read on to the bottom of the page.

Whoa.

Ang posted this gem (239) which made him suspicious of Nogrod. Although he ended up wrong, he seems to think of nothing but the good of this village. (All hail the King under the Mountain!)

Nilp: I still think Volo is fanged. But hey, I'm expanding my horizons.

Now, the others. (Sorry.)

Holby seized on Lommy's strange vote for Eomer back in DAY 1. (q.v. 233)

Rune's casus voting (q.v. 238) makes me scratch my head. And a bit uneasy . . .

Volo didn't vote. Maybe his furry friends lectured him not to vote rashly.

Now, what have I learned from this? Lommy and Menel feels hairy, but if they are two of the Wolves I find their tactic strange. They're trying to get each other killed! Then again, a wolf-Menel back in WWIX did the same thing with Shelob, and they won that game with their numbers intact. (A little history; it makes Menel look all the more dangerous to me.)

Who could the third Wolf be? Rune? Valier? Volo?!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Haha, I was right! Curse you, fiend! Eat whatever form of execution we can scrounge up!

++Volo

[Thinlómien]

I can't believe this! I was so convinced of Ang's guilt. Holy cow. I don't honestly know what to think.

Well, I'll believe Durelin, I think. Of course she might be a wolf, but I don't think it very probable. And if she was one, we'd know it tomorrow, and we wouldn't be even doomed yet.

Uh-oh. I stand corrected about Ang... I'm just baffled. He was so guilty-ish. Well, I guess I must apologise for a rather fierce attack...

Volo a wolf... Well, that's news. No offense, but he's clearly outdone his ancestors both in deception and in making good points by far.

++VOLO

Good work Volo, I'm glad we had Durelin. Well done, Durelin, catching a wolf. Our situation looks better now.

I find it still so diffcult to understand Ang's not guilty... How could I have been this wrong?!? I mean, it was not generally being wrong, but being convinced and wrong...

Now that Rune has been released of my very faint seer-suspicions I will be focusing in him more than before...

Huh, Ang, you can be quite convincing wolf as an innocent...

[Anguirel]

Blast, blast, blast.

While delivering pink slips to naughty boys as an errand for my Headmaster (don't ask) it occurred to me that Durelin's trust in me probably had a deeper motive than mere suspiciously friendliness. I returned too late.

My apologies, stalwart Orilin, for doubting you. If we could double-lynch I would vote for another suspect and try to bag two wolves, but as it is, I'll get the vote out of the way...

++VOLOIN

I don't believe I let myself get convinced by his "I'm Lestrade" garbage. I was caught because my metaphor was flattered. I also thought his assault on me was too earnestly wrong to be lupine. How mistaken I was.

I think, agonising as it is to read Beorn's reservoir of vitriol, there may be evidence inside it that help us decide about her. And all Voloin's actions should clearly be examined anew.

I'm sorry to have failed you, great Seer; we shall ensure you have a fine burial tomorrow morning...

[Anguirel]

Beorn, in the event of your innocence, I have some rather patronising advice for you.

Always consider the eventuality of your being wrong...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

This Seer revelation comes at a price.

Not only is our Seer's fate sealed, we shall have a lack of insightful voting analysis tomorrow. But I guess it's a price to pay for a bigger chance to save this vilage.

What I want to say is: you may vote for the right person, but for the wrong reason. I'll be watching what you say--or fail to say--in your votes.

I should have dinner now. Felagund, out.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Not only is our Seer's fate sealed...

Yup. But I doubt that Durelin will be the one to die...

Four votes, three wolves, one innocent. Lommy is innocent. The others (Durelin and Anguirel) are wolves, Nilpaurion is probably the third.
Yes, that would make sense. I can't remember that either of the wolves truly suspected Nilpaurion. And it's easy to see that Durelin and Anguirel are a team, what team but a wolf team?

If Durelin were a Seer, she's a bad Seer... First of all, the Seer shouldn't reveal herself at this moment, as the only "Seer" that would really profit from it is a hairy seer. But yes, you revealed and killed the real Seer.

Night2: Nogrod -> innocent
Night3: Boromir -> innocent
Night4: Lommy -> innocent

I'm the worst Seer you've ever had, but at least I'm a Seer... A Seer at a loss. Lommy's analyse really impressed me! Hmm. That should be reason to vote Anguirel tomorrow and Durelin the day after.
I think that the game is pretty clear now, except for the third wolf... But I bet it's Nilpaurion!

You might wonder why I trusted people before my dream. No, I didn't trust them, I actually "trusted" them to stay safe, Nogrod or Boromir wouldn't want to kill somebody who trusted them if they were wolves. And I had to "trust" them before I knew the truth, I would be dead if I started trusting them after the first dreams...

I'll analyze Nilpaurion Felagund next.

[Anguirel]

I suggest that we treat the wolf as if he's speaking Ancient Sanskrit, until tomorrow, when his burblings may be of use.

[Holbytlass]

Sorry, Volo, but Durelin wasn't in any real danger of getting lynched so she didn't need to come up with this ruse. I'm glad we'll have a known innocent to help tomorrow as the wolves can't kill two .

++VOLO


I still find Lommy suspicious and would have voted her toDAY. Thank you, seer, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yeah at this point I see no other option than to vote Volo. It could be that Durelin is a wolf, but she was not really in danger zone of being lynched so I think it is unlikely.

++Volo

[Anguirel]

The interesting aspect of this affair, actually, is that the wolf has evidently prepared for being a fake Seer, as shown by his "trusting", and indeed his comment about leaving Bofgrod and Nori to the Seer - which he will have hoped to use to distract the real Seer. Now he whips off his cloak and produces a list of highly convenient dreams, probably half convincing himself that he has had them.

It was, in fact, rather an innovative, premeditated and elaborate plan. I wonder if he shared it with his fellow villains, and if so whether any signs of it will show up in their behaviour.

Apart from that, I think there's little value in what he's said. What value there is I shall expound upon tomorrow.

[Thinlómien]

If, for some weird reason, Volo was right, we know it tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Ang

Beorn, in the event of your innocence, I have some rather patronising advice for you.

Always consider the eventuality of your being wrong...

I did consider it, but, well... not enough, it seems.

-------------------
Please fellow villagers, if you have something incriminating against me, bring it up now and I'll answer it asap. You know I'm online only on the late half of the day, and I'd rather not find myself lynched tomorrow with a comment "you didn't answer the accusations". Of course I understand you're most occupied with analysing Volo's posts right now, but if you happen to have something you wish me to answer, ask it now unless you know you'll be able to be around in the last half of tomorrow.

edit: xed with Ang

[Volo]

Day2

#139 Here is enough reason for Nilp to be wolf.
I seem to see that Nilp is known for not killing Spawn, right? Well, now Nilp decided to win, that nasty wolf...

#143 Now he's messing around.

#146 Here he saves his text from messing around. This one a good post, but Nilp suspects Volo, Kitanna, Nogrod and Holbytlass. Two of those were innocent, on is the Seer and one... I don't know, but probably innocent.
Votes Kitanna, while his own accusations were not for her, as I see it.

Day3

#245 Huh? I don't really see your point in accusing me... I think even an innocent would want to stay safe, but that is not the point here. You vote me for voting Kitanna whom you voted yourself? If this ain't wolfish, nothing is! And I did think that Kitanna was the wolf, thanks to you too!

Day4

#271 "How sad" and continues suspecting me...

#276 Again... But I voted by trusting you, Nilp, you...
Posts this vote diagram with analysis coming later. ()

#282 Diagram for the third day's votes.

#287 Comments my comment on him. What is this thing about Gifts? If you mean if I have a Gift, yes I do. If you mean that you have a Gift, no you don't.

#299
Analysis , at last... Who does he trust? Durelin and Anguriel or course! And who does he find suspicious?
Lommy for lack of reason in her vote. I don't think it's that bad to listen to others and use their points in your own votes... True, Lommy explained badly.
Menel, I agree, Menel did seem scary, but there can't be four wolves, so Menel is innocent.
Rune for his badly explained but right vote.
Holby for her careful vote, and wrong by the way...
Volo, because I didn't vote. Hey, I was away... Just like you on day1! Take that!
I conclude that this throwing suspicions on every wall and making it with humor, just like Anguriel.

#300
Votes me. Because his fellow wolf told that she's the Seer and I'm a wolf. At this point, I would expect better from you, why to trust the first one to say "Seer", go through them both and decide for yourself...

#304 How very ironic, yes the Seer's fate is sealed. You must have had a good laugh when voting the Seer. Goes away as a victorious wolf.

Take that! And Lommy, you'll die next night for being innocent. Hope to see you in the Afterlife.

Valier, Menel, Rune, Holby, don't die!


EDIT: X:d with everything since my last post.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I suggest that we treat the wolf as if he's speaking Ancient Sanskrit, until tomorrow, when his burblings may be of use.

That's nasty even for a wolf...
Rune, Holby, what are you doing? Think first and vote after... No sense trusting the "Seer" this much... Even the Seer shouldn't be fully trusted. Even if there are no wolves around.

Eh, whatever. You win, even if you betray me. At least we got this over and all of the wolves out. One Seer isn't as important as three wolves.

Bye. I'll die with a smile, because I know that you were in safe hands and can manage yourself now.

I just wish to chose my death. I'll commit suicide by drinking poison!

[Thinlómien]

Volo makes me wonder, not giving up...

If it happened that he really was the seer and Durelin was a fake seer and I die next night (what a weird scenario), please, fellow villagers, kill Durelin (surprise) and especially Ang, be Durelin a wolf, Ang's one too. And killing him would satisfy some barbaric aspect of me... be he innocent or not. (Really Ang, you keep giving me creeps! I can hardly bring myself to believe you're innocent, you look so bad. And you keep sounding wolvish!) And I'd bet Menel's the third wolf then.
------

As to the current situation then. I assume Dury's innocent and Ang too, and Volo's a wolf.

I think Menel is a wolf too, but I need to check his and Volo's relations. The same checking goes for Rune and Holby and Valier and Nilp. If I should just guess, I'd go for ether Holby or Rune... I can't really see the point of Holby's single-mindedness in continuously attacking me... I wouldn't be too surprised if she was revealed a wolf.

xed with Volo

[Valier]

++Volo

and just so you know before you most likely die Durelin....I am not a wolf. I will hopefully have more tomorrow.

[Anguirel]

The chance of the wolf telling the truth, and in fact being the Seer, is nil.

However...in the extremely unlikely event that I am completely wrong, Voloin's current claims - that his innocence proves me and Nilp guilty, instead of just Orilin - is of course nonsense. Beorn, it disconcerts me that you're giving ear to it, but then I suppose you are the rival proven innocent. If you're not a wolf, Voloin clearly wanted you onside anyway.

I suppose we shouldn't rule out, either, the possibility that Moddwen has secretly thrown a false Seer into the ring (they can't both be real, as their dreams contradict each other). But on the whole I find that extremely implausible.

Goodbye, Lestrade. And no, it isn't au revoir...

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Anglock

Goodbye, Lestrade. And no, it isn't au revoir...

Yea, whatever.
But who's Moriarty? And Watson? What if I'm Watson? Yes, what if I'm Moriarty...

[Thinlómien]

But were there a false seer, all the dreams wouldn't be false; both our seer-candidates have claimed Nogrod innocent as he was. Nah, I think another of them is a pretender, and I think it's most probably Volo.

But why would he start such a fight? Why did he do all this? He's not the last wolf alive, why to cause such confusion...? Why would he name just me innocent? I had already voted him. I thought he would rather have tried to lure someone that had not voted yet... If he's a wolf, did he except his fellow wolves to offer him support? I'm quite baffled.

Ang, what do you mean by me giving ear to Volo? I acknowledge the possibility he's right, not Durelin, but I still believe that Durelin's the seer. What's wrong with that? I'm not a seer anyway, I can't see their roles, so isn't it perfctly reasonable for me to say a few things about if Volo's right, especially when if things were so, I'd be the next one killed?
If you're talking about me saying you and Dury should be lynched, be Volo the real seer... That's certainly not giving ear to him, the Dury-lynch is pure sense and obvious, and about lynching you... well... you can't say I didn't think that before Volo mentioned it!

edit. xed with Volo

[Anguirel]

Fair enough, Beorn, perhaps I was a little over strict. In any case, Volo's latest post has rendered the question pretty much academic.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Fair enough, Beorn, perhaps I was a little over strict. In any case, Volo's latest post has rendered the question pretty much academic.

It looks so... I hope it's so, otherwise this little game might get a bit too complicated.

[Oddwen]

VOTING IS CLOSED

Death to follow shortly.

(I apologize for the even-earlier-than-I-had-thought NIGHT, I forgot the BD's clock was much slower. Next DAY should begin at the normal time.)