The Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire

[Glirdan]

Played in - IX, X, XIII, XV, XVII, XVIII, XIX, J II, J VII, XX, J VIII, XXI

Number of games: 12
Modded: 2 (J I, J III)
Ordinary Villager: 9
Werewolf Hunter: 1
Ranger: 0
Shirriff: 0
Cobbler: 0
Werewolf: 0
Black Beorning: 1
Lover: 0
False Seer: 0
Cursed: 0
Seer: 1
Mythomaniac: 0
EW: 0
GW: 0

On winning team: 5
On losing team: 7
Survived to end: 2
Lynched: 6
Killed by Wolves: 1
Killed by Heroes: 1
Double Lynched:4
Mass Lynched: 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First game (WWIX) – 26 posts – double lynched with Zali on Day 3 (black beorning).
Second game (WWX) – 14 posts – double lynched with Cailin on Day 1 (innocent).
Third game (WWJII) – 7 posts – lynched on Day 1 (innocent).
Fourth game (WWXIII) – 34 posts – lynched on Day 5 (innocent).
Fifth game (WWXV) – 8 posts – lynched on Day 1 (innocent[wolf]).
Sixth game (WWXVII) – 42 posts – survived (hunter).
Seventh game (WWXVIII) – 25 posts – lasted until the end where SpM mauled me (innocent)
Eighth game (WWXIX) – 24 posts – double lynched with TGWBS on Day 4 (innocent).
Ninth game (WWJVI) –35 posts – lynched on Day 4 (innocent).
Tenth game (WWXX) – 6 posts – lynched on Day 1 (innocent).
Eleventh game (WWJVIII) – 20 posts – taken down by Hunter[hawk] Ang on Night 4 (seer[owl]).
Twelfth game (WW) – 21 posts – killed on Night 8 (innocent).

Conclusions:

a) I will never be a Wolf

b) I have (most likely) the record of the most amount of times double lynched

c) Wolves and Heroes tend to stay away from me during the Night

[Kuruharan]

The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18, and 21=12.

The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 17, 19, and 20=8.

The Black Beornings have not won.

The Lovers have not won.

A Tie occurred in 16=1.

[littlemanpoet]

Mod: Littlemanpoet
Evil Wizard: Roa_Aoife
Good Wizard: Gurthang
Werewolves (in order of cursing): Nogrod, Naria, Loki, Alcarillo, mormegil, Valier, Eomer, Jenny, Kitanna
Uncursed Werewolves: Loki
Seers (in order of gifting): Nilpaurion Felagund, Kath
Hunters (in order of gifting): the phantom, Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Ranger: Caranlondien
Ungifted: Nilpaurion Felagund (former seer)
Villagers: Loki, The Saucepan Man, Celuien, Lhunardawen, Cailín, Firefoot, Lommy, Sleepy Ranger, Oddwen, Glirdan, Diamond, Feanor, Lalaith, Eonwe.

Order of Death:

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer: hunter
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots: werewolf
Celuien the Healer and Cupper, lynched on Day Three: innocent
Lhunardawen the jeweler, committed suicide on Day Three: innocent
Cailín the match maker, mauled by werewolves on Night Four: innocent
Valier the gardener, planted and stoned in her garden on Day Four: werewolf
Firefoot the artist, frenziedly eaten on Night Five: innocent
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn, head almost ripped off by werewolves: innocent
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain, drowned on his boat on Day Five: werewolf
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy, broken and consumed on Night Six: innocent
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver, skewered and kabobed on Night Six: ranger
Roa Aoife the weaver, burned by fire on Day Six: the evil wizard
Gurthang the stable-hand, contorted by evil magic on Day Six: the good wizard
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer, lynched on Day Six: innocent
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker, flayed through the back on Night Seven: hunter
Kath the minstrel: flayed where she lay on Night Seven: seer
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor: virtually beheaded by the Hunter on Night Seven: werewolf
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin, lynched in a game of tag on Day Seven: innocent
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath, killed and eaten by the seashore on Night Eight: innocent
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen, lynched in a werewolf bandwagon on Day Eight: innocent
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom, killed by werewolves smelling victory on Night Nine: innocent.
Diamond of the Battledore, killed by werewolves on Day Nine: innocent.
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration, killed by werewolves on Day Nine: innocent.
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen, killed by werewolves on Day Nine: innocent.

~ The Remaining Werewolves ~

Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna

Result: Evil Team win

[Gurthang]

Games in: IIX, XIV, XV, XVI, WWJI, WWJII, WWXIX, WWXXI

Number of games: 7
Modded: 0 (Sub-modded: 1, which I screwed up miserably.)
Ordinary Villager: 6
Werewolf Hunter: 0
Cobbler: 0
Werewolf: 0
Black Beorning: 1

On winning team: 3 out of 8
On losing team: 5 out of 8 (Technically, one of those was second place out of three. )
Survived to end: 2 out of 8

What I was:
Black Beorning: 1
Innocent: 6 (in a row )
Good Wizard: 1

[Nogrod]

One more update of an update... and statistics falling...
Games: 8
(WWJ IV, WWJ V, WWJ VI, WWJ VII, WWJ VIII + WW XX, WW XXI, WW XXII)

Modded: 0
Ordinary Villager: 4
Hunter: 0
Ranger: 1
Cobbler: 0
Wolf: 2 (a blind one & a normal one)
Seer: 1

On winning team: 5 out of 8
On losing team: 3 out of 8

Killed by wolves: 2 out of 8
lynched: 3 out of 8
survived till the end: 3 out of 8

WW XXI: The EW Roa really paid me back our first common game... But the game itself was really awesome!

WW XXII: We were doing quite fine as a wolf-pack, but the Changeling and the Seer just dreamt us down together in a big village with only three wolves...

[Kuruharan]

The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18, and 21=12.

The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 17, 19, 20, and 22=9.

The Black Beornings have not won.

The Lovers have not won.

A Tie occurred in 16=1.

[mormegil]

Okay I've finally compiled my games and have the results.

Werewolf Senior Games

Game 1. I lost and I was the seer who was killed by the Wolves though I did dream of Firefoot who was a wolf.

Game 3. I lost and was an ordo killed by the wolves.

Game 5. I won and was a wolf but was lynched.

Game 6. I won and was an ordo who survived.

Game 7. I lost and was the cursed who was lynched.

Game 8. I won and was an ordo who was killed by the wolves.

Game 9. I lost and was the Black Beorning kill being the Shirriff.

Game 11. I lost as the hunter where I was infuratingly lynched but killed the wolf too.

Game 12. I won as an ordo but was a wolf kill.

Game 14. I lost as an ordo and was taken out by hunter Aiwendil

Game15. I won as an ordo and survived.

Game 17. I lost because I was the cobbler and the wolves couldn't pull their own weight .

Game 18. I lost and as the hunter I killed an innocent Kath, but it serves her right .

Game 21. I won and started as an ordo but was changed to a wolf early on and was killed by the hunter.

Game 22. I won and was an ordo who survived.


Werewolf Junior Games

Game 6. I won as an ordo and survived.

Game 7. I won as the seeker (seer) but was killed by Hunter Diamond. I dreamt of a wolf.

Game 8. I lost because the blasted village wouldn't listen to me about Kath and I was an ordo who was lynched instead of Kath.



Total Games is 18
Won 9 lost 9
Survived 5 times
WW kill 5 times
Lynched 4 times
Killed by Hunter 3 times that's rather astounding actually.
Killed by Black Beorning once

Ordo 10 times including the cursed villager
Seer twice
Hunter twice
Wolf twice
Cobbler once
Shirriff once
Ranger never

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Killed by Hunter 3 times that's rather astounding actually.

That is beautiful indeed!

But I see your stats are impressive! And the trend is somewhat a rising one...

And really I symphatize with your werewolf-weariness (I said it in the wolf PM's, but not in the thread). I've just played 8 games somewhat in a row and modding one feels like heaven now. The next one I will be sub-modding and then, maybe a little break?

But the games are also getting more complicated all the time. We / you learn to play - all of us / all of you learn the tactics and need to respond (well I'm a bit newbie and thence my different pronouns). Just check the ongoing WWJ IX: The Crossing of Helcaraxë, to see the complexity of a very basic game today!

Happy I'm not in it, but only modding...

[littlemanpoet]

Games I was in: IV, VI, VII, VIII, XII, XIII, XVIII, WWJ5, XIX, XXII

Number of games: 11
Modded: 1
Ordinary Villager: 6
Werewolf Hunter: 0
Ranger: 1
Shirriff: 1
Cobbler: 0
Werewolf: 1
Seer: 1

As Seer:
# of known innocents given to ordos: 4 (including self)
# of werewolves dreamed: 1
# of dream choices killed same Night: 1

On winning team: 6 of 10
On losing tem: 4 of 10
Survived to end: 2
Lynched: 1 (as a werewolf)
Killed by Wolves/Heroes: 6

I played this last game in my old "shoot from the hip" style .... believe it or not. I was too weary for deep and thorough analysis. I'm rather pleased with 67% success rate.

[Celuien]

Games: 8 (WWIV, WWX, WWXIII, WWXVIII, WWXIX, WWXX, WWXXI, WWXXII)
Modded: 0
Ordinary Villager: 7
Hunter: 0
Ranger: 1
Cobbler: 0
Wolf: 0
Seer: 0

On winning team: 4/7 (WWIV, WWXIX, WWXX, WWXXII)
Killed by wolves: 3/7 (WWX, WWXIII, WWXIX)
Lynched: 2/7 (WWXVIII, WWXXI)
Survived to end of game: 3/7 (WWIV, WWXX, WWXXII)

Win rate: 57%
Lynch rate: 29%
Innocent rate: 100%

Notice that when I make it to the end of a game, the village wins. So don't lynch me! I'm always innocent anyway.

But I'm on werewolf hiatus until August because my decreased Net access in July will make extensive use of the refresh button difficult. So it will be a while before we find out if that innocent streak continues...

[JennyHallu]

Games: WWJ IV, WWJ V, WWJ VI, WW XX, WWJ VIII, WW XXI, WWJ IX
Modded: 0
Ordinary Villager: 2
Hunter: 0
Ranger: 0
Cobbler: 1
Wolf: 4 (1 orc, 1 duck)
Seer: 0

On winning team: 3 out of 7 (43%)
On losing team: 4 out of 7 (57%)
Survived to end: 2 out of 7
Notes:

WWJ IV: was suspected the whole time, was completely wrong in all my analyses. First games can sure suck, huh?

WWJ V: was never suspected, (even when it was down to two possibles and a seer's dream ), nominated for rehabilitation, but it was turned down by a mod. (Who had the ghosted other wolves give me a traitor's death for asking.)

WWJ VI: I was right! Whoo-hoo! Accidentally engineered the third wolf's death--on day three. Whoops!

WW XX: Mean ol' Shaman outed me Day 2. And I LOVE being evil! I'm good at it!!

WWJ VIII: I was turned into an evil duckiness night 2, and though I died Day 3, Kath and the Saucepan Goose lived to bring us the win.

WW XXI: I was turned into a Wolf Night 5, and survived to the end and the win. Once again, the only wolf not ever suspected.

WWJ IX: Cobbler. Never am I good. Don't trust me. Killed Day 2, while I was GONE and UNABLE to defend myself. (Too bad this wasn't Di's game, so I could call "fowl play")
__________________

[Encaitare]

Games Played: 7 - WW2, WW7, WW8, WW9 (mod), WW12, WWJ5, WWJ9

Modded: 1
Ordinary Villager: 3
Hunter: 0
Ranger: 0
Cobbler: 0
Wolf: 2
Seer: 0
Shirriff: 1
Black Beorning: 0

On winning team: 2 - WW8, WWJ9
Killed by wolves: 3 - WW2, WW7, WW8 (actually, it was the Black Beorning)
Lynched/killed by villagers: 1 - WW12
Survived to end of game: 1- WWJ9

Usually I am pretty quiet and end up getting killed by the wolves in the Night because my quietness means not much of a trail to follow. I'd do nifty notes on each game, except I don't remember what happened in half of them.

[Thinlómien]

Dramatis personae:
Anguirel – werepenguin (Dead on Day 4)
Boromir88 – werepenguin (Dead on Day1)
Naria – werepenguin (Dead on Day3)

Lalaith – Seer: Boro / tp / Roa (Dead on Night3)
Kitanna – Ranger: Lalaith (Dead on Night2)
Firefoot – Hunter: Valier

JennyHallu – Cobbler (Dead on Day2)

Ordinary elves:
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Diamond18
Encaitare
Eonwe (Quit the game on Day2)
Macalaure (Dead on Night4)
the phantom
Roa_Aoife
Valier

Mods
Thinlómien (Dead on Night1)
Nogrod (Dead on Night1)

The tale of the Lost elves resulted in an innocent victory on Day 4, with only the three werepenguins and the cobbler lynched.

Anyone who wishes to read this horrid tale, please see it here.

[Diamond18]

Hmmm, just notcied: LMP and Lommy, don't forget to link to your games! (I've found the links most handy). And Kath, you need to put your game up here! *exerts peer pressure* All the cool mods are doing it!

My statistics:

Games played in: 5 -- JVI, JVII, TiGXX, TiGXXI, JIX

Games modded: 1 -- JVIII

Ordo: 4
Taker: (Hunter) 1
Everything else: 0

On winning team: 4/5 (80%)

JVI: (Return to Midsomer Mawlin) Stumbled around as a newbie ordo, constantly befuddled because people called me quiet and I felt rather loud. Was nearly lynched on the third day but survived by flip-flopping my votes 3 times and got to strangle the last werewolf with her own cane. Bwa ha ha ha.

JVII: (Attack of the Werecats) Was the Taker, and killed the Seer in an amazing display of tunnel vision.

TiGXX: (Wereorcs) Ordo, nearly lynched on day 1 for too many in character posts followed by oversleeping for a scandoulously long time so that I wasn't around for most of the day. Managed to talk my way out of it, figured out who one of the orcs were, then did some terribley wrong analysis (implicating, who else, the shaman as one of my main suspects) and eventually got killed at night by the other two orcs.

JVIII: (Wereducks) Modded, and managed to confuse, confound, and confuddle a large amount of people.

TiGXXI: (Dueling Wizards) ARGH! I survived all the way to the end as an Ordo, only to die at the hands of victorious wolves Eomer, Jenny, and Kitanna. I am still smarting from this defeat and intend to exert revenge, someday.

JIX: (Psychotic Penguins) Ordo, again, but figured out Ang was the final Penguin in time to vote for his feathered butt.

[Kath]

And Kath, you need to put your game up here! *exerts peer pressure* All the cool mods are doing it!

I'll get there! I can't put it up until I do the final narration, and I can't do that til these blasted exams are out the way because they take away my creativity

[Nogrod]

Lommy got to sleep already, but I can submit the link to the WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë.

It will be found on here.

[Thinlómien]

Played in - junior: I, III, IV, V, VII; unjunior: XIX, XXI, XXII
Modded - junior IX - The Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

Number of played games: 8

Ordinary Villager: 6
Werewolf: 1
Seer: 1

On winning team: 5 (62,5%)
On losing team: 3 (37,5%)
Survived to end: 4 (50%)
Lynched: 2 (25%)
Killed by Wolves: 2 (25%)

I think my survival rate at 50% is pretty good. Also, people keep having the image that I'm lynched very often, but actually I've been lynched only twice; once as a pretty random Day1 lynch and once for a very stupid reason (see wwjVII below).

Comments on each game:
WWJI - My first game. I was totally fooled and led by TORE (and Fea), but luckily they had only good intentions.
WWJIII - My first and only time as a wolf. I was over-nervous. My fenrisation. *glares at the dark elf's sword and the scotsman in the kilt*
WWJIV - It was a real surprise to me to be killed by wolves on Night1
WWJV - My true career in flood-posting and flip-flopping begins.
WWJVII - Lynched for being in Nogrod's list. Ouch.
WWXIX - Nailed SamwiseWolfee. Would have been the ranger if there had been one. *sigh*
WWXXI - What can you say abou that freak, massive, glorious and great dwww-game? Answer: my mother's minions killed me.
WWXXII - I was intorduced to seership and ww-gloating. Loved them both.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lommy got to sleep already, but I can submit the link to the WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë.

It will be found on here.

Thanks. I added the link to the post nevertheless.

[Holbytlass]

Number of games: 8sr, 2jr

Modded: 1(XI)
first time a wolf (Abercrombie) took claim of a gifted role after gifted revealed themself(Mormegil)

Ordinary Villager: 3 (killed by wolves)
Werewolf:3-killed by hunter 2xs, survived once
seer:4(killed by wolves), just call me Seeress Superior of the Downs, thanks Anguirel.
In the second game, The Phantom started the tradition of ripping out seer's eyes-me being first


On winning team:3 out of 10
On losing team: 7 out of 10
Survived to end:1 out of 10


I don't ever want to be moderator again because of the time and creative pressures, also I like being a one-hit wonder!

[Kuruharan]

The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18, and 21=12.

The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 17, 19, 20, 22, and 23=10.

The Black Beornings have not won.

The Lovers have not won.

A Tie occurred in 16=1.


The villagers have really narrowed the gap here.

[The Saucepan Man]

Number of games: 14
Modded: 1
Ordinary Villager: 9
Werewolf Hunter: 1
Cobbler/Goose: 2
Werewolf: 1

On winning team: 6 out of 13 (as Hunter, Werewolf and Goose and 3 as Ordo)
On losing team: 7 out of 13 (6 as Ordo, 1 as Cobbler)
Survived to end: 4 out of 13 (including in each of my winning games)

Lynched: 3
Killed by Wolves/Heroes: 6
Survived: 4

Rather annoyed that I have been an ordo in 70% of my games (how does Holby do it?) and I am still yet to try the roles of Seer and Ranger.

Also rather annoyed that, over the last three games, my lynch rate tripled!

[Glirdan]

Played in - IX, X, XIII, XV, XVII, XVIII, XIX, J II, J VII, XX, J VIII, XXI, XXIII, J X

Number of games: 14
Modded: 2 (J I, J III)
Ordinary Villager: 11
Werewolf Hunter: 1
Ranger: 0
Shirriff: 0
Cobbler: 0
Werewolf: 0
Black Beorning: 1
Lover: 0
False Seer: 0
Cursed: 0
Seer: 1
Mythomaniac: 0
EW: 0
GW: 0

On winning team: 6
On losing team: 8
Survived to end: 2
Lynched: 6
Killed by Wolves: 1
Killed by Heroes: 1
Double Lynched:4
Mass Lynched: 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First game (WWIX) – 26 posts – double lynched with Zali on Day 3 (black beorning).
Second game (WWX) – 14 posts – double lynched with Cailin on Day 1 (innocent).
Third game (WWJII) – 7 posts – lynched on Day 1 (innocent).
Fourth game (WWXIII) – 34 posts – lynched on Day 5 (innocent).
Fifth game (WWXV) – 8 posts – lynched on Day 1 (innocent[wolf]).
Sixth game (WWXVII) – 42 posts – survived (hunter).
Seventh game (WWXVIII) – 25 posts – lasted until the end where SpM mauled me (innocent)
Eighth game (WWXIX) – 24 posts – double lynched with TGWBS on Day 4 (innocent).
Ninth game (WWJVI) –35 posts – lynched on Day 4 (innocent).
Tenth game (WWXX) – 6 posts – lynched on Day 1 (innocent).
Eleventh game (WWJVIII) – 20 posts – taken down by Hunter[hawk] Ang on Night 4 (seer[owl]).
Twelfth game (WWXXI) – 21 posts – killed on Night 8 (innocent).
Thirteenth game (WWXXIII) - 34 posts - lynched on Day 5 (innocent)
Fourtheenth game (WWJX) - 2 posts -lynched on Day 1 (innocent)

Conclusions:

1) Still won't be a Wolf.

2) People can't get over the fact that I'm confusing.

3) SpM, Nilp and Eomer are rather confusing players to read.

[Kath]

Also rather annoyed that, over the last three games, my lynch rate tripled!

Blame lmp, he started the trend

[Roa_Aoife]

# of Games: 5 (WWJ III, WWJ IV, WWJ V, WWJ VII, WWJ IX, WWJ X, WW XX, WWXXI)
Villager: 2
Seer: 1
Wolf: 3
Evil Wizard: 1
Survived till end: 4
Lynched: 2 (I assign Nogrod as a seer to Mordor. That was rotten luck.)
Killed by wolves: 1
Killed by Good Wizard: 1
On winning team: 7/8 (87.5%)
On losing team: 1/8 (12.5%)

In detail:

Junior games
WWJ III- My first game I was an innocent who survived almost to the end, but was killed by the last somewhat angry wolf-Ang after I caught wolf-Valier. (With analysis.)
WWJ IV - Wolf, for the first time, lynched after the newest player Nogrod revealed himself as a seer and found me out. Start of a beautiful relationship.
WWJ V - Seer, survived to end with the help of ranger Nogrod
WWJ VII- WERECATS! Innocent who survived to end along with Eonwe
WWJ IX - PENGUINS! Innocent who survived to end along with a bunch (Decided here that Valier is scary.)
WWJ X - Wolf, Survived till end with both of my fellow wolves

Not Junior Games

WW XX - Orc (wolf) lynched second to last day due to overly ambitious plan
WW XXI- Evil Wzard, killed two days from end after challenging Gurthang the good wizard, but wolves went on to win the day.

I have been a wolf 3/8 times-not even half the time- so I really don't know where the "Roa is always evil" stigma comes from.

NOTE: I joined WWJ XIII, but I dropped out of my own accord after the second day, so I do not count myself as contributing to that game.

[Valesse]

I'm probably going to be posting the sorriest bit of scores on here. Prepare to guffaw, WW lovers!

Everything is in Junior. I'm tiny.

I've played in - WWJ III, WWJ V.

Number of games: 2
Modded: 1 (WWJ X)
Ordinary Villager: 2
Werewolf Hunter: 0
Ranger: 0
Shirriff: 0
Cobbler: 0
Werewolf: 0
Black Beorning: 0

On winning team: 2
On losing team: 0
Survived to end: 2 (100%! )
Lynched: 0
Killed by Wolves: 0
Double Lynched:0
Mass Lynched:0

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I have been a wolf 3/8 times-not even half the time- so I really don't know where the "Roa is always evil" stigma comes from.

3/8 is actually a lot.... I mean, I've been a wolf 0/6 times.

You're also not counting being the Evil Wizard, which makes you bad 4/8 times.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by SpM

Rather annoyed that I have been an ordo in 70% of my games (how does Holby do it?) and I am still yet to try the roles of Seer and Ranger.

Art imitating life showing my bipolar tendencies. Actually, the impressive one is Wilwarin who has been wolf and almost all of the gifted roles.

[Kath]

I think I've been everything but a Lover, though I have a bad enough record with those as it is

[Gurthang]

I've been the Bear, the Good Wizard, and a wolf... finally. Oh, and an innocent six times in a row! Which means I've been good 7/9 of the time. I find it really interesting that I've never been gifted. I've bestowed giftedness upon others, but never been one myself. Although, I am one of only two (Roa is the other) who has been two different Evil roles.

Anyway, here's my updated stats:

Games in: IIX, XIV, XV, XVI, WWJI, WWJII, WWXIX, WWXXI, WWXXIII

Number of games: 9
Modded: 0 (Sub-modded: 1, which I screwed up miserably.)

On winning team: 3 out of 9
On losing team: 6 out of 9 (Technically, one was second out of three and another was tied for second of three... but that's still losing. )
Survived to end: 2 out of 9

What I was:
Black Beorning: 1
Innocent: 6 (in a row)
Good Wizard: 1
Werewolf: 1

What I did:
Killed mercilessly: 2
Acted rationally: 4
Implemented a far-fetched, no-shot-of-ever-working plan: 3

[Lhunardawen]

"I don't ever want to be an ordo again, because whenever I'm an ordo I feel so unhelpful that I unconsciously try to come up with the craziest ways to commit suicide...and I usually end up successful."

[Macalaure]

Folwren said the following in the Battle of the Bands Game:

An innocent is more likely to be killed this first day than any of the following!

Well, I'm too much of a geek to let this great opportunity to gather some statistics pass.

I have looked at 31 Werewolf Games (the summaries in the Grimoire or the summaries at the end of the newer games, if there are faults in them, they're in here as well - and probably some new ones..)


Here we go!


Day 1:

# of Ordos lynched: 20
# of Gifteds lynched: 4
# of Baddies lynched: 10

This makes 71% innocents, 29% baddies.


Day 2:

O: 21
G: 4
B: 11

69% innocents, 31% baddies


Day 3:

O: 23
G: 0 (!)
B: 17

58% innocents, 43% baddies


Day 4:

O: 19
G: 3
B: 12

65% innocents, 35% baddies


Day 5:

O: 18
G: 1
B: 10

66% innocents, 34% baddies


Day 6:

O: 11
G: 1
B: 5

71% innocents, 29% baddies


Day 7:

O: 5
G: 0
B: 6

45% innocents, 55% baddies


Day 8:

O: 3
G: 0
B: 0

100% innocents



Over to the conclusions.

- The average is 65% innocents and 35% baddies, so roundabout two thirds of all lynchees were innocent.

- Day 3 and 7 are the lucky days of the village.

- Day 6 is as bad as Day 1.

- If you weren't able to get the last wolf on Day 7, you're screwed.

- Folwren's claim does hold, but not very much. The chance to kill an innocent on Day 1 is just 6% worse than the average, and it's even tied with Day 6.

The chances don't seem rise or fall in a way that would suggest there's some nice function behind it (I was hoping to see something like that, but the identity is nice too). The results go over and under the average as they will.

Does this now mean that intelligence is over-rated and randomness would work just as well? I'm puzzled.

[Kuruharan]

Does this now mean that intelligence is over-rated

I've said that for years.

Seriously, the problem is that there are too many intelligent people who have reasonable theories they want to try and these theories are usually mutually exclusive (to say nothing about mutually destructive)...and then there are the wolves to consider.

[Thinlómien]

Very interesting, Mac.

Though:

Originally Posted by Macalaure, bolding mine

Day 3:

O: 23
G: 0 (!)
B: 17

58% innocents, 43% baddies

[Macalaure]

58% innocents, 43% baddies

The one is exactly 57,5%, the other 42,5%.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The one is exactly 57,5%, the other 42,5%.

Okay, that clears it up a bit. I was wondering how 58 and 43 add up to be 100...

[Kuruharan]

The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18, and 21=12.

The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, and 24=11.

The Black Beornings have not won.

The Lovers have not won.

A Tie occurred in 16=1.


We have almost achieved parity!

[Thinlómien]

I'd never have believed it that has been that equal... I have the feeling that the good guys win (far) more often. Maybe I've just played too much junior-games which maybe have a higher villager-victory percent...

[Lhunardawen]

Three consecutive village-won games? Wow. I think I can die happy now, if I'm not yet already dead.

[Anguirel]

Yes, Lommy, the village wins almost all the time in WWJ. Barring the Wereducks, naturally!

[Meneltarmacil]

The village has been winning almost every game lately, 21 being an exception. If this keeps up, we may wind up ( GASP! ) seeing the end of Werewolf as the outcome would increasingly tilt toward villagers winning. (mostly due to better wolf-spotting techiniques, I'm guessing)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

The village has been winning almost every game lately, 21 being an exception. If this keeps up, we may wind up ( GASP! ) seeing the end of Werewolf as the outcome would increasingly tilt toward villagers winning. (mostly due to better wolf-spotting techiniques, I'm guessing)

Then we must maybe just add the numbers of the wolves...