Tol-in-Gaurhoth (Isle of Werewolves)

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man:

It could have been different - the Hunter and one Wolf could have cancelled each other out, leaving a Wolf v an innocent (albeit, in that case, the Cursed).

But wouldn't wolf vs. innocent on the last day be a wolf victory?

Well, the Hunter can, so why not the Wolves.

Not necessarily - when I was the Hunter in Alcarillo's game, I had to hunt every Day and every Night.

Fordim:

If the wolf takes out the innocent, then next day double lynching and wolf loses.

If wolf vs. hunter were deemed not to constitute a wolf victory a priori then this would be correct and the wolf would have a one in four chance of winning if he/she killed someone (1/2 chance of getting the hunter times 1/2 chance that the hunter hunted the innocent). And there would be a 1/2 chance of a draw and a 1 in four chance of a villager win.

But if wolf vs. hunter is a wolf win (as I think it ought to be) then it's a 3 in 4 chance of winning for the wolf and 1 in 4 for the villagers, assuming the wolf attacked someone.

But I think you've incorrectly tallied the probabilities for the other scenario (wolf does not attack anyone):

Hunter gets lynched, wolf wins.

Innocent gets lynched, wolf wins.

wolf gets lynched, wolf loses.

I would correct as follows:

1. 1/3 chance that the hunter gets lynched, in which case:
a. 1/2 chance he hunts the innocent that day (wolf wins)
b. 1/2 chance he hunts the wolf (villagers win)
2. 1/3 chance the innocent gets lynched (wolf wins or draw depending on wolf vs. hunter rule)
3. 1/3 chance that the wolf gets lynched (villagers win)

So if hunter vs. wolf is a draw then we have a 1/4 chance of a wolf win if the wolf attacks that night and a 1/6 chance if he does not.

If hunter vs. wolf is a wolf win then we have a 3/4 chance of a wolf victory if the wolf attacks that night and a 1/2 chance if he does not.

Either way, it's better for the wolf to attack.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Man of Pans

Unless you are suggesting that the Mod is actually an active player in the game? I don't like the sound of that, as the Mod's imparitiality should be beyond question.

Of course the Mod is impartial. It is really just a fun way of saying "draw." I'd rather play in a game where the Mod ultimately wins than in a draw.

In any case, if the whole village dies, it's not even a draw. It's a multi-loss.

Originally Posted by Fordim

Wouldn't the math take care of such a scenario? For example:

My mistake. Yes, the wolves would win then.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

But wouldn't wolf vs. innocent on the last day be a wolf victory?

Yes, sorry. I meant a different way of narrating the Wolf win - ie with only one Wolf surviving, rather than two. But I thought in that game that, the way that they had played, both Wolves deserved to survive.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Not necessarily - when I was the Hunter in Alcarillo's game, I had to hunt every Day and every Night.

That's quite harsh. When I was the Hunter (WWXII, I believe), my decision not to Hunt the Werebear on the final Night played some part in our victory as, had I hunted and got it wrong, it could have spelled disaster. In "game logic" terms, it makes sense to allow the Hunter to take a conscious decision (acting on the basis of his rational assessment) not to hunt, while there are grounds for ruling that the Wolves (acting, arguably, more on cunning and instinct than on logic in their transformed state) should be compelled to kill at night.

I defer to your far greater abilities of mathmatical assessment, Aiwendil.

Originally Posted by the guy who be carnivorous

It is really just a fun way of saying "draw." I'd rather play in a game where the Mod ultimately wins than in a draw.

But, if it is just a fun way of saying draw, then it is a draw. Which is a boring outcome imho.

Originally Posted by the guy who sprout fur

In any case, if the whole village dies, it's not even a draw. It's a multi-loss.

Precisely. Draw = everyone loses.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

Yes - WWII, which I modded. The final day found the Hunter (BW) and an innocent (SoN) up against two Wolves (the phantom and dancing spawn). Although the innocent also happened to be the Cursed. One Wolf attacked the Cursed , who began to transform. The Hunter then shot the cursed ( ) and was savaged by the two Wolves. Wolf victory.

That narration was one of the best I've seen (although I may be a bit biased).

The same thing happened also in WWXIII which I modded. There was an innocent (Ang) and Hunter (Lalaith) against two wolves (tar-ancalime & Eonwe, who was originally the Cursed), and because the wolves would have won anyway after the Hunter's kill, I thought it would be nicer to let both wolves stay alive.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

That's quite harsh. When I was the Hunter (WWXII, I believe), my decision not to Hunt the Werebear on the final Night played some part in our victory as, had I hunted and got it wrong, it could have spelled disaster. In "game logic" terms, it makes sense to allow the Hunter to take a conscious decision (acting on the basis of his rational assessment) not to hunt, while there are grounds for ruling that the Wolves (acting, arguably, more on cunning and instinct than on logic in their transformed state) should be compelled to kill at night.

Well, if the Hunter has to PM the mod a name every night, can't they just give their own name and kill themselves if they are attacked by wolves?

Anyway, I don't like twisting the rules much. Of course players want to adjust the rules so that it benefits their side, but isn't it part of the fun and excitement of having a certain role that it may have a drastic influence on the outcome of a game?

[Kath]

I would just like to say - oy! I did tell Menel I wouldn't be around one Day and I believe I mentioned it both in here and on the main thread.

I do apologise though for my absence yesterDay which was unavoidable. I should have been back in plenty of time to save myself but the plane was delayed and the car broke down etc.

The dead should tell no tales I know but I thought I should explain myself.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Either way, it's better for the wolf to attack.

Only if he does so using his sliderule....

[mormegil]

But surely "Mod wins" is just another way of saying it's a draw. And draws are dull and to be avoided at all costs, imho.

Soccer or your football?

Anyway I agree that the Wolves win in the scenario. Think of it this way, the wolves goal is to kill the village. If they are all dead (villagers) wolves win whether or not they are alive too is irrelevant, though I would leave the wolves alive to avoid the ambiguity.

[Farael]

Alright, who is the next on the list for modding? I believe Nilp wanted to give it a go, but I'd like to pencil my name down after his.... I say pencil because there might be someone else waiting and I wouldn't want to cut in line

I have quite a few ideas for my game (Whenever it happens) but I don't mind waiting.... nor playing another game.

[Shelob]

I'm up for the next Mod, Nilp was kind enough to let me take this round since it works best with my school schedule. He gets the game after me then and after that it should be free.

For my game I'm aiming for a village of fifteen (15) to twenty (20) people, so feel free to start signing up now. There are just a couple of quick points about my game.

>>I ask that you DO NOT CHOOSE AN OCCUPATION (yet). I may or may not limit which occupations are available (for the purposes of my narations) but I haven't decided yet. Within 24 hours I'll let you know.

>>I'm considering adding the role of "False Seer" (also called "the Fool"). Basically this role functions such that both the Seer and the False Seer would get a PM from me saying "You are a Seer yadda yadda yadda..." Only I would know which was the true seer and so they both would believe they were getting the correct information. The False Seer's dreaming works such that if the False Seer dreams of the true Seer they're told they've found the False Seer, if they dream of anyone else I pull a role out of a hat containing all the remaining roles (minus the seer). So if it's Night Three and there's 3wolves, 1ranger, 1hunter, 9villagers, (and the subtracted seer) I'd be pulling one of those randomly to tell the False Seer.

I'm looking for input regarding the False Seer, so feel free to ask questions or give your opinions. Like with the occupations I'll let you know what I decide within 24 hours.

Day/Night Starting Times will probably be around 4:30pm EST, though that's flexible within half an hour either way. I say for sure when the game will start until I have a better feel (well, any feel) for how recruitment's going.

[The Saucepan Man]

... or a stress junkie.

Sign me up!

[Farael]

I'm in as well!!

Although I'm looking forward to Nilp's game (no offense meant for you Shelob) I have the perfect occupation if Nilp will allow... I'll be... the town's Nilp! =D

But that will have to wait, as will any decisions on my job for this game, until tomorrow I guess

[The Saucepan Man]

As for the False Seer, I like the idea, but doesn't it rather sway things against the villagers? The Seer is the villagers' greatest asset and, if they can't rely on the information that they get from him or her, it will be a serious obstacle to them.

So I think that it would need to be balanced out with something in favour of the villagers.

4.30pm EST is 9.30pm GMT, right? I would prefer an hour later, but I can live with it.

[Shelob]

I figured that, and after my last post it dawned on me I should probably clarify a few points about the false seer.

>>If the False Seer is Used there will be NO COBBLER OR CURSED. I don't want to give the wolves too much of an advantage. (If the False Seer is not used I'll be using at least one of those roles, depends on the numbers)

>>The Hunter and Ranger will be allowed to talk during the day, which should help balance it a little. Though this will hold true regardless of whether or not the False Seer is used.

>>When one of the seers dies I will tell the village which one it was. So the notation would read something like: SHELOB--False Seer--pushed into a well by wolves on NIGHT 3
Which should clarify something...if nothing else it'll solve the mystery for the remaining seer.



and it may even end up depending entirely on how the wolf:villager:gifted proportions work out, if it's tilted enough in favour of the wolves I'd like to try a game with the False Seer, even just to see how it works out in practice.
[EDIT: I said earlier I'd let you know about the Flase Seer within 24 hours, in reality I'll probably decide shortly before the game begins. That way more people can have input on it.]

Yes, 4.30pmEST=9.30pmGMT. I was making a quick guess on times, thinking further on it I figure I may push it back at least half an hour, but it should settle somewhere in the 4.30/5.30pmEST (9.30/10.30pmGMT) range...

[mormegil]

I think I would like to add my name to the roster.

As for the false seer that might be good because since SpM and I are inevitably dreamt of on the first 3 nights perhaps they will receive false information. I can only imagine if the two of us were wolves...the seer would identify two within 2 to 3 nights . Though I'm not a huge fan of the role because I'm thinking from the perspective of playing the seer. You wouldn't never be certain that you were correct and the village wouldn't really know the truth until after their death. However, it may be a lot of fun. So I'm not against it but I would like others to say their piece too.

Edit: I also would like to reserve a slot for Fordim in case we can talk him into playing

[Aiwendil]

I'm in for the next one as well.

The false seer is a very interesting idea, though I also worry that it might bias things against the villagers. One thing that could be done to soften the effect would be to have the false seer simply have a chance of receiving the wrong information - e.g. 50% of the time the false seer is told the truth, 50% of the time a lie. But that might push things too far the other way and give an advantage to the villagers.

Another possibility is that the false seer could always be told that the person he/she dreamt of is innocent. This would prevent a disastrous lynching of an innocent whom the false seer accused of being a wolf. It would also mean that once the real seer dreams of someone other than an innocent, he (but not the false seer) will know the truth about his role.

I don't know that either of those suggestions would work well in practice; I'm just throwing out some ideas.

[Glirdan]

...or just insane. Or maybe both? Who knows? Anyway, definetly count me in.

This False Seer idea of yours sounds interesting and what better way to try out new ideas then in an actual game that you get to mod, right? I say yes to the False Seer.

As for the times, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) that we are in the same time zone yet 4:30 is not the best of times for me as I have school for six hours and then band three days a week for an hour and a half which means it would be ending just as the Day/Night begins. Do you think you could push it back?

[Kuruharan]

The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, and 14 for a total of ten wins.

The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, and 17 for a total of six.

The Black Beornings have won squat for a total of naught.

A Tie occurred in 16 making one.

While the Ordos still have not won two in a row, they now have a chance of it.

(Yes, I'm obsessed with the ordos being able to win two in a row.)

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

(Yes, I'm obsessed with the ordos being able to win two in a row.)

Will you be helping out in this next one?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You sure you're up to the chance of being lynched on DAY 1--happened to me once; it was fun but kinda depressing.

Ummm . . . I'll probably skip this one, unless some lovely person decides to grace this game with her presence.

[Cailín]

I have a sort of doom scenario that is bound to happen when we let Nilp mod a game. Maybe we should reconsider.

I'm not playing for a while, since my grades have been rapidly going downhill after I joined Formendacil's game. I find that very disturbing. Have fun you all!

[Formendacil]

Sign me up!

I have way too many friends on this site... I can't offend them by not playing.

I'm also addicted...

No occupations? How droll...

[Lhunardawen]

*slaps Formendacil*

Are you a masochist or what?!

Musst...ressisst...preciouss...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, the players list looks great thus far, but I don't know if I should...

Sign me up, please.


About the false Seer: it will definitely make things more complicated, but it'd be fun to try out, how that role really works.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Well, the players list looks great thus far, but I don't know if I should...

Sign me up, please.

*hands keyboard over to Nilp*

Well, well, speaking of the . . . daga . . .

Sign me up, please.

*takes keyboard back after a long bloody fight*

Sign me up, please.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Please let me play in this one, O my wonderful wolf Shelob.

I've been having severe withdrawal symptons lately and I need a fix, posthaste!

Lhuna, this time! I'm watching you...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Will you be helping out in this next one?

Yes, Kuru. Won't you come out to play?

I need someone other than dancing spawn to habitually suspect ...

[the guy who be short]

*Withdraws hand from keyboard*

*Tentatively reaches forward again*

I really wish I could play in this one. It looks great. Spm, Eomer, morm, Lhuny to name but a few...

Alas, I have both coursework and mock exams to take care of. And it would be discourteous to hog a space four games in a row, for I will certainly not miss a Nilp-modding. So I'm sitting this one out, unfortunately. I hope I have time to keep track of going ons. The False Seer looks interesting, by which I mean, it will confuse the daga out of everybody.

[Kuruharan]

Yes, Kuru. Won't you come out to play?

Oh, I don't know if that would be a good idea. Let me think about it. I spent waaay too much time on this last go around.

I'd need to know what day we'd be starting so I could see how the alternation would work out (it makes a bit of a difference).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I know Mods dislike being bugged like this...

...but can we please outlaw double-lynchings for this game? I just hate them so much!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

...but can we please outlaw double-lynchings for this game? I just hate them so much!

I actually agree on this. It is far too stressful trying to orchestrate them.

But I am very keen that we retain non-retractable votes.

[littlemanpoet]

Count me in. .... that gives SPM one more character to habitually suspect.

And I'd like to moderate a game soon after that ....

.....I want to try 'dueling wizards'. More about that later, but if you're curious, check out the thread entitled "Werewolf Scenarios You Want to See" (or something like that). I'd hyperlink but this workplace computer doesn't allow it. Grr.

[Kath]

And me please! The False Seer role looks interesting and if the Hunter and Ranger are allowed to communicate throughout the Day it should balance out.

[Garin]

Garin raises his furry hand.
Consider me for the game as well.
Although, I'm not sure about the False Seer. It almost seems cruel to the fool.
I must protect my people.
EDIT: My people = fools

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by elempi

Count me in. .... that gives SPM one more character to habitually suspect.

Excellent. The conditions are ripe for me to reprise my traditional role as clueless and generally mistaken ordinary villager.

Originally Posted by Garin

Garin raises his furry hand.
Consider me for the game as well.

And I'm adding you to my list of usual suspects, too.

Originally Posted by Shelob

The Hunter and Ranger will be allowed to talk during the day, which should help balance it a little.

Note, however, that this could go against the villagers too. In WWXVII, a number of people (including the Wolves) were able to spot Glirdan the Hunter after Cailin was revealed as the Ranger from the foregoing discussions and voting record. The guy who be wolfish's notes show that the Wolves thought that they might be able to spot one as and when the other was killed.

[the guy who be short]

Perhaps you could bring back the good old Shirriffs? Note the spelling...

[Shelob]

Alright, I've been looking at it and I figure there's probably three possible ways the gifted roles are going to end up working.

The First:
3 Wolves
1 Seer
1 Ranger
1 Hunter
> where the Ranger and Hunter are allowed to communicate during the day.

The Second:
3 Wolves
1 Seer
1 False Seer
1 Ranger
1 Hunter
> where the Ranger and Hunter are allowed to communicate during the day

The Third:
3 Wolves
1 Seer
1 False Seer
1 Ranger
1 Hunter
2 Sherriffs

Feel free to make other suggestions, those just seem like the most likely.


Now, as for occupations, I'm not going to limit them but if you could take one from the following list I would appreciate it as it would make writing my narrations somewhat easier. (And yes, I did steal some of this from the list of Midieval Occupations LMP supplied ages ago. It made life easier.)


Prince/princess
baker
inventor
noble
gentleperson
salesperson
hermit
eccentric bum
soldier
knight
fraudster
fishmonger
governess
manager
entertainer
jester
musician
theif
priest
farmer
magistrate
flower salesperson
chef
messanger
beekeeper
fool
Ironmonger
Mason
Shepherd
Coppersmith
Money lender
Cheese seller
Tanner
Butcher
Tailor
Silversmith
Carpenter
Leatherworker
Glover
Hatter
crazy lady who lives with pet rocks (instead of cats)
alchemist
stable hand
hunch back
resident amphibean
leper
ex-leper
foreign dignitary
flaming flamingo
constitutional peasant
banker


Thanks.

[Farael]

I call Alchemist!!!! It'll be fun to add some 1,2,3,4-thiatriazoles and cyclooctanes to the conversation

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Flaming flamingo? What on Middle-earth...

I call priest. And I think you may guess who my holy Lord will be.

I am not overly keen on the False Seer idea but I'm prepared to try anything once (well, maybe not anything ). So I say try it out Shelob!

I am not at all keen on the Ranger and Hunter knowing each other. I'd prefer to keep them separate and have Shirriffs. BUT the only way to have so many gifteds is in a game with over 15 players. We don't want all the gifteds coming out and narrowing the wolf-suspect list by half immediately.

And if we have Shirriffs as well as all these gifteds I think double-lynchings must be outlawed. Because then you have a case where 6 people can come out right at the start and the village will simply double-lynch their way to victory. The wolves won't have much of a chance, and the game wouldn't reach a chilling nerve-racking climax.

[Anguirel]

I like the False Seer myself...nice and Biblical, somehow...

I'd like to enter this one though I may have to back out, in which case I'll squeal.

I'll take the banker...

[Celuien]

I'm really missing werewolf. Life has been very, very busy lately.

But then again, there's this role:

resident amphibean

Hmm.

Okay, I'd like to sign up, though I may have to back out, in which unfortunate case I'll be quite unhappy.