Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

*sigh* There is the thing that I was looking forward to playing with Lhuna a little more in this game, since I practically haven't played with her ever... which goes for more people like Oddwen as well... and why just these people are those I'd lynch now... if I were to be guided by this, I'd vote Nogrod since I've played enough times with him, but it's not much...

EDIT: Great, my net just fell down. What the... (this was supposed to be sent about five minutes ago, and I couldn't even see the posts before. Great.)

[Gwathagor]

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna
Gwath -> Lhuna
Mith -> Nog
Nog -> Lhuna
TEW -> Aganzir
Lommy -> Gwath
Aganzir -> Legate

[Meneltarmacil]

The villagers crowded around Lhunardawen.

"Wolf! Your vile deeds are at an end!" shouted Gwathagor.

"We ought to stone you with your own pinecones!" yelled Nogrod

"Well, as long as it's humane and no animals are hurt aside from the wolf, I'm in," Nerwen agreed.

"Wait! I'm the one who ought to be lynched!" blurted out Volo "I hate these times that I can't argue with you!"

A rope was flung over a high branch of one of the pine trees and tied into a noose around Lhunardawen's neck. The villagers formed a line and pulled up on the other end of the rope, hoisting the victim high.

"Please! Let me down!" Lhuna gasped. "You're making a horrible mistake! If I die there'll be nobody to..."

She ran out of breath and died. As the villagers released their hold on the rope, the body fell to the ground, and out of Lhuna's clothes rolled a crystal ball.

The kind used by Seers.

"Oh no..." said Kath. "This isn't good."

Alive:
Aganzir
Gwathagor
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien
Volo

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.

Night 2 begins. I need names from those who can give them. Villagers, please cease posting.

[Meneltarmacil]

The next day dawned. It was overcast and foggy.

The villagers gathered around and noted that one of them was missing.

"Where's Aganzir? I was going to buy a pair of boots from her," asked Kath.

Indeed, the Cobbler was not around.

"I'll bet she's talking to her friends, the werewolves," noted Volo. "After all, she's a Cobbler, so she has to secretly hate us all and support the wolves."

The villagers made there way to Aganzir's house, where a gruesome sight awaited them. The Cobbler's bloody remains were lying all over the place, while her skin had been dried out to fit a pair of boots.

Worst of all, there was no sign that she had been anything but an Ordinary Villager.

Alive:
Gwathagor
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien
Volo

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.

And thus begins Day 2. Wolves, no more PMing. Villagers may commence posting.

[Thinlómien]

I'm surprised and sad to see Agan go. But at least I won't have to puzzle over her role... We should maybe think why she was killed although it has less value since the seer is already dead... speaking of which...

YesterDay's voting result was a fiasco. I will have a look at the bandwagon, surely. I think the whole case against Lhuna was quite feeble and I'm still surprised how so many fell for it. I'm quite sure at least one wolf voted Lhuna, butsurely the wolves just got lucky and had no idea that Lhuna was the seer - or did they? I think she was so anti-seerish thatthey probably didn't, unless I missed something.

If I have to find good sides of the seer being dead, well, I can say I can stop seeing seers everywhere. Normally I don't pay any attention to gifteds but yesterDay I had about three or four seer candidates I was being careful with (and no, Lhuna was not among them). Now I can maybe look at them more neutrally.

[Volo]

La République démocratique du Congo est le troisième plus vaste pays d’Afrique et le plus peuplé d'Afrique centrale.

Still haven't read all of that and even while I am reading, my head simply doesn't work. :/ Sorry to say, but this game isn't doing me a favour.

All I feel right now is that either Legate is being framed, or he's framing that he's framed.


editXd with Lommy

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Noggie

And Kath! I can't believe this! But yes I'm not suspecting her at the moment. Hear the soughing of the leaves of history! I still am afraid of her everytime I play in a game with her but somehow her approach feels more innocentish than not this time. What's happening?

This too is an interesting comment. I haven't decided who of the two is more guilty, but something is not right. 'night.

[Nogrod]

I don't know what it is exactly but Lommy's first post looks wolvish indeed. It's probably the whole way she approaches Agan's and Lhuna's passing... It looks like a combination of dowplaying our misery, apologising for the kills, thinking like the wolves...

I'm going to look back at yesterDay to see if I can find anything that would help us from there. I hope as many of you do the same.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't know what it is exactly but Lommy's first post looks wolvish indeed. It's probably the whole way she approaches Agan's and Lhuna's passing... It looks like a combination of dowplaying our misery, apologising for the kills, thinking like the wolves...

Well I was very tempted to mourn Lhuna more vocally and say "what did I say about lynching her being a bad idea" but decided not to be so self-promoting... Anyway, partly because of that comment you just made it to my suspicion list.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I can only state it's most unfortunate about Lhuna, and the more now that I see there's probably not much to find out from her posts. If we can conclude anything, then I'd say it's that she didn't dream of Nerwen, Nogrod or Gwathagor. Which is really not much, or actually nothing.

As for Aganzir, without the intention to sound nasty, I would have said just what Lommy said: "At least I won't have to puzzle over her role", indeed. But now after the Night I'd wonder if it could have had something to do with the attempt to frame me or anything, but in any case, that's not my problem, but the wolves', if they have such intention.

And Nog now - I don't like him more and more, and that I say even after his just one post toDay. That looks like an attempt to throw it on Lommy. Would he be such a wolf to act as openly? Because it really screams wolfy to me. Unless they were wolves both, but that I don't think.

What else? Let's wait, shall we not, Boss Gamabunta...

Edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Nogrod]

Lhuna seems to have had one dream as Menel's narration for Night1 ends with

Originally Posted by Menel

Any gifteds present who have reason to give me names, please do so.

Now Lhuna says
of Mith: "rather innocent, in my opinion"
of me: "either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent"
of Lommy: "guilty Finn?" & "Lommy"
of Legate: "bored innocent or wolf setting up an insanity defence"

Then she goes on with the following in one post:
Volo is a lost explorer
Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims)
Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity
Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

Ending all this she goes... "So my pine cones tell me".
Now this last add-on kind of makes me wonder whether someone noticed this already yesterDay or is it just th power of hindsight that makes this one shine through?

But if she wished to hint she was the seer why isn't she more explicit with whom she knows of? Hinting to be the ser and leving others in confusion about her dreams doesn't sound reasonable playing ... so maybe I'm just reading too much into this?

Anyway... I'm not sure about Gwath but I could imagine Nerwen picking that one up...

Anyway. Next time she comes in she has this to say:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I don't know, Gwath, but I get this honest gut feeling that you could be sucking up to Legate. If you're a wolf, and you know he's innocent, that's quite a strategy. But that's just me.

Mith feels innocent, she's honest enough to be one, and shows she has nothing to fear in saying whatever she feels like saying.

Nerwen's a bit worrying for skirting the issues, however petty, to which she could have contributed. That one post seems to me very safe - which makes it otherwise, if you get me.

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

Now, as for Volo's self-vote, I'm not sure if Menel has a provision for automatic lynchings for non-voters. But in any case, I strongly advise not to vote for Volo because of his RL constraints. We have greater need to lynch our strong suspects than people who can't participate properly.

Speaking of participating properly, I see we still have a few people who haven't spoken. I hope they have valid reasons for being still absent. I'll be casting my vote (for either Nogrod, Gwath, or Nerwen as of this moment, but that could very well change) possibly within the hour.

She then goes voting for Gwath but her speculation about why to vote him and why not her other main candidates looks more like pure speculation than anything based on knowledge.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

because of my three highest suspects, he's the one I can defend from myself the least. I should give Nerwen more chance to speak, and Nogrod is always argumentative, although his arguments aren't always sound. But that's not to say I'm taking him off my list. It must be Gwath's disadvantage at this point that I've never played with him before, so I don't know if he's being his usual self, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Looking at all this would suggest me a few possibilities - in the order of probability I see it.

She dreamt of Mith and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Gwath and found him a wolf.
She dreamt of Agan and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Oddwen and found her innocent.
She reamt of Nerwen and found her a wolf.

I'd say she dreamt of Mith and found her innocent. For that is the most believable explanation I can find - she after all mentioned her twice and both times as an innocent without reservations or second thoughts / possibilties.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyway, partly because of that comment you just made it to my suspicion list.

So you play this in the good old retaliation way now Lommy?

I will not suspect you if you ask questions about me as that's what we need to do. The wolves only need to make friends and rub you nicely. We innocents need to look at everything and everyone and make the questions that need to be asked so that we can either start suspeting more or to clear someone - at least for a while. But without trying every possible idea we will never get the wolves.

And that goes to you Legate as well. You should know better than that. You can't play without suspecting left and right and looking which dog howls when the stick hits.

If you guys decide your votes on the basis of who is nice to you please go ahead but just remember the wolves are your best mates when the sun still shines. During the Nights it will be different.

I may shut my big mouth and not give you any new ideas if they so upset you. Or are you wolves who do not like the direction this is going?

Gah.

Sorry. I got a bit carried away but two similar posts like that following each other kind of frustrated me. Please go on and suspect me and I can say why you're wrong - and take my points on you in the similar fashion as decent questions to be answered by you.

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod, stop preaching. Besides, the last time I heard that speech you were a wolf, so it's exactly not helping.... I'll write something more constructive in a minute...

EDIT: sorry for editing for such a silly reason but I just realised this is my 4,000th post... yay...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I can only state it's most unfortunate about Lhuna, and the more now that I see there's probably not much to find out from her posts.

Seriously? Or do you just not want us to look? Both you and Lommy have seriously played down the implications of Lhuna's death. And now you're both going after Nogrod.

Volo, I want to know what the deal was with your self-vote yesterday, because it looks awfully sneaky - as if you were saying "look, I'm clearly innocent because a wolf would never do this."

Nogrod, I don't like the tone of your posts. I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again: they seem domineering and manipulative.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looking at all this would suggest me a few possibilities - in the order of probability I see it.

She dreamt of Mith and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Gwath and found him a wolf.
She dreamt of Agan and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Oddwen and found her innocent.
She reamt of Nerwen and found her a wolf.

I'd say she dreamt of Mith and found her innocent. For that is the most believable explanation I can find - she after all mentioned her twice and both times as an innocent without reservations or second thoughts / possibilties.

Well I would like to relativise and re-evaluate what you said here. First of all and mainly, I really am not sure whether anything can be said from Lhuna's posts. It's even possible she did not hint anyone at all - after all, she might not have counted on dying this early (and she probably didn't). Also, on first sight it seemed to me that if anyone, it might be Oddwen, because she said practically nothing, yet Lhuna mentioned her quite plainly as "innocent":

Originally Posted by Lhuna

As for the others, Volo is a lost explorer, Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims), Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity, and Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

Although now looking at it, it doesn't look much convincing either. But that just proves what I said, I really think we can't say much from her posts.

Last but not least, I do not trust you (but you promoting Mith wouldn't have to mean you are wolves together, that will be rather transparent; rather I'd expect you making it look like that, to support the theory that you two are wolves, while she actually isn't).

EDIT: x.-ed since that Nog's post I've quoted

[Thinlómien]

I have not reread anything, but if we can trust Nogrod's facts, then I think it is most probable that Lhuna dreamt of Oddwen or Agan. This might be a reason for why Agan was killed, too.

And Nogrod, like I said, that preaching is absolutely unnecessary. I don't have anything against you suspecting me. I don't even have anything against you doing it rather forcefully or even on weak grounds. But I might have something to say if you do it in a manner that I consider suspicious.

I know I sometimes automatically trust people because they say they trust me. I know it's bad. But I am able to remind myself of it being stupid myself, thank you, Mr Nogrod. I don't think I've made such a judgement mistake in this game this far. I will tell you if I have.

And as for retaliatory suspects... yes, they're not a good thing in principle, but make more sense than it first seems. I mean, if I'm an innocent and you accuse me, I can see that it's a baseless case. Unless I'm a seer, I can't know it of your cases against other people. Everybody makes baseless cases, yes, but wolves do that more than other people do.


edit: xed with Gwath and Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nogrod! I could understand if you were upset by being wrongfully accused as innocent, but I know you are a reasonable player and sure will be able to return to reason and control your emotions. The post like that one you made is not helping your status in my eyes at all.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Seriously? Or do you just not want us to look?

No way. Just go and look, actually, there's not that many posts from her. But I am stating my opinion: and that is - there's not much to gather.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Seriously? Or do you just not want us to look? Both you and Lommy have seriously played down the implications of Lhuna's death. And now you're both going after Nogrod.

And you're nicely fitting us to the same category and misrepresenting me. Great.



Seriously, Gwath. I did not downplay the implications of Lhuna's death. I said it should be looked at and that I will do so. I merely said I see it as unprobable that the wolves guessed her identity. I didn't, and I don't - maybe I'm silly to do so - except them to be much smarter than I am.


edit: xed with Legate

[Nogrod]

Agan on others...

She called both Legate and Lommy Frollo who speaks of having a clear conscience while his hands were bloody.

She thought Gwath is not suspcious because of his distaste for Day1's but for other reasons (befriending Legate).

Said:

But this doesn't actually matter since Gwathy, Oddwen and Lhuna are the wolves and I'm just the cobbler trying to defend them against the nasty Nogrod.

Mith is innocent.

The ones she suspected: Gwath (explanatory behaviour), Legate (delibertely behaving odd), Lommy (too happy), Nogrod (using Noggish reasons).

Thought Kath to be an innocent.

Suspected Lhuna and Legate being fellow-wolves.

Answered Legate's speculation of her possible innocense with

Last time Legate-sika said so he was a wolf. I have no reason to assume he is this time different.

Threathened Gwath with:

Gwathy, see my post #49, I asked you something. Last game you were a wolf you got too far by ignoring suspicions and questions, and I won't let it happen again.

Thought Volo's self vote is not incrimatory and suspected Legate, Gwath and Lhuna. Adds that Lhuna's death might be the most informative. Votes Legate because Lhuna "will die anyway".

...
Others on Agan:

Lommy said of Agan:

Agan then, she seems quite innocent and in a different way than she usually does. (Usually when she seems innocent to me she's a wolf.) She's not as careful and as unsuspicious as she's as a wolf.

Next she lists her as the second innocent looking with Mith.

Nogrod said:

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Kath said:

some nice random accusations, pretty normal Day 1 fare.

putting her into the innocent category.

Gwath reacted to her point about wolves not making too much plans on Day1:

It just seems so far out that I can't tell whether she really thinks it and is just kind of crazy, or whether she's trying to fool us.

Legate says:

looks innocentish to me, although I am aware that when she looks innocent, she generally isn't and vice versa, however I would like to hope this time it's different.

The Elf Warrior votes for her by a hunch.

A few thoughts coming in a minute.

[Nogrod]

First of all it looks like Agan got killed because she was generally thought of as an innocent.

Another interpretation is that she was getting something right with Gwath, Legate and / or Lommy and the wolf / wolves decided to take a dangerous adversary out of the way.

Third interpretation is that it's all a set up and people like Kath, Nerwen and Volo are just grinning in the shadows.

Combinations of these reasons are possible.


Legate's point on Oddwen and Lommy's on Aganzir are plausible (well, I wouldn't have included implausible cases in my list - like myself, Legate or Volo as the ones she would have dreamt) even if I tend to believe it was Mith she had her dream of. I wasn't going to take anything for granted from there but surely these interpretations direct each of us to look at some places rather than not. And these facts need to be brought forwards even if they can't prove anything. You very seldom prove anything in WW but you can build up cases for a pile of indirect evidence.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't have anything against you suspecting me. I don't even have anything against you doing it rather forcefully or even on weak grounds.

You don't? Just look again your second post of toDay! To me your reaction looks just like "Oh my god he's saying something that doesn't rub me right! Attaaack!" And it doesn't help you that you try to downplay my thoughts on you as "preaching". That's cheap rhetorics and more a wolfy reaction than an innocent one.

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish. In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone. Also you try to make a case of the Lhuna-"bandwagon" and how people fell on that feeble grounds (even the known innocent Agan "fell" for that having her as her second suspicion!) while it is also clear that there were only three votes for Lhuna and thence no mentionable bandwagon (wolvish way of pointing the attention away from you). And then you go on thinking whether the wolves were surprised Lhuna was a seer or just got lucky - which should be a thing the wolves would have thought (wolf-thinking).

I do see your point on feeling bad when someone is suspecting you when you're innocent. But you should know better than that. Putting somene under scrutiny and getting reactions may also make someone look better as you know. We need to get the wolves but we also need to find the ones we can trust - at least a bit.


There is still something I'm not quite easy with Gwath. It's too late now but I hope I can put my finger on it toMorrow.

He and Legate seem just too happy to follow the trends and back up any suspicions raised against vocal players - which would be just what a wolf would like to do.

And just to finish this all. Let's not forget that quieter part of the village. It maybe that we speakers are tearing each other apart once again while the real culprits laugh in the shadows.


*Congrats for your 4000th post Lommy!*

[Kath]

I can't believe we lynched the Seer, and it was Lhuna of all people. The first time we're both free to play a game and we get a grand total of a Day.

Anyway, you have my apologies but I'm going to have to vote within the next hour or so which I know is insanely early but I've got a family outing planned for tomorrow and have absolutely no idea what time we're going to be back.

So, I'm going to do a few things now. I want to see who voted for Lhuna yesterDay and why. Aside from that pine cones thing picked up by someone earlier I saw little in her posts that would indicate Seerdom. Also I will have a look at her posts though I doubt I will get much out of them because on Day 1 no Seer is going to reveal, and generally tries to barely hint. Finally I will look at the few posts we've had so far toDay and try and make up my mind on a vote. The vote will only be based on those who have spoken so far toDay because I think that's only fair.

Lhuna voters:
Nerwen ~ no real reasoning. Says she suspects Lhuna 'ish'. This is such a strangely supported vote that I actually feel it speaks to her innocence.
Gwath ~ votes Lhuna, no reasoning in the post and it's only because he decided not to vote Volo. The original vote is odd, voting for someone who outright said they weren't able to be there. The Lhuna vote seems revenge more than anything for her 'flippant' vote for him.
Nogrod ~ no reasoning in the post, hmm, apparently the vote was to work out Volo's role. Intriguing idea given the little we'd had from either of them and the perfectly sound argument Lhuna had of ignoring Volo til he had time to return and explain. Given her history with Nilp and self-votes I'd have said that made perfect sense.

Lhuna posts:
Hmm, mentions a twist of some kind, as though she has something to say. A role hint maybe or something more.
Has Mith innocent, unsure on Nog, no conclusion on Lommy, unsure on Legate, has Oddwen as innocent. From this I would say she'd dreamt of Mith or Oddwen as they're the only ones she's fully cleared. I'm more inclined to say Mith because she put reasoning behind that one.
Reiterates that Mith and Oddwen are innocent, not helping that debate. Argues with Gwath and thinks he may be a wolf along with Nerwen. Also has Nog high on her suspicion list.
Votes Gwath mostly by a process of elimination. Is it possible that she dreamt of him? She has little forthright reasoning for her vote, yet has gone after him relatively strongly for Day 1.

ToDay:
Nog jumps on Lommy pretty fast. He seems determined to find fault at the moment. I don't like his statement that Lhuna would have made more explicit hints. On Day 1 only a Seer with one wolf in the bag would dare make their role clear, and even then rarely. He's pretty much defending Gwath, though subtly, saying Gwath wouldn't have picked up the cues and suggesting Lhuna didn't dream of him. The fact that my suspicion of Nog is growing makes me wonder about this, but then I'm not sure a Nog-wolf would be so obvious.
Gwath suspects Nog and Volo. He's very against both of them, and to me seems to be doing some of what he accuses Nog.

I haven't looked at Agan because I think she was killed because there seemed a general consensus that she was innocent.

++NOGROD

The more I've read the more I've been leaning that way. There is still doubt in me whether a Nog-wolf would behave quite as jumpily as Nog is, but then maybe he has comrades he doesn't quite know or it's a role he wasn't keen to have. I don't know, but whatever the case he is acting suspiciously.

I think I've cross-posted with some people. Haven't seen anything since Lommy's last post about downplaying.

[Oddwen]

I truly, truly apologize for disappearing yesterday...I got the times mixed up...

But wow, tough luck.

I am inclined to disagree with the theory that Lhuna dreamed of an innocent - reading over her posts the phrases regarding her suspicions seem to stand out to me...then again, she suspected three (Gwath, Nerwen, Nogrod), but only voted one...this sentence is going nowhere.

Then again, she may have dreamed of someone who hadn't even posted before she had to log off, such as Kath or Elf Warrior, and was unable to find something to jump at or defend...

Anyway. Gwath is the one looking most suspicious to me, based on Lhuna's reasonings behind her vote - Mith I'm thinking is leaning close to innocent - I'm feeling some tension from Lommy - I am looking over the rest of you but I am forgetting words and will be back in the morning.

[Nerwen]

Okay, well that was a lousy start. I suppose I'm partly responsible, but the fact is that I had to vote early– and will probably have to do so again, just so you know.

I was, of course, afraid of wolves jumping on my vote: from my point of view Gwath and Nogrod are looking furrier than they did yesterday just for that reason.

Now, was Lhuna killed for giving Seer hints? We can't assume this, but if she was it's more likely it was for picking a wolf than for babbling about pine cones. (I'd guess Gwathagor, in that case.)

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

That's if she was killed for being a Seer and not just a nuisance.

Originally Posted by Kath

He's pretty much defending Gwath, though subtly, saying Gwath wouldn't have picked up the cues and suggesting Lhuna didn't dream of him. The fact that my suspicion of Nog is growing makes me wonder about this, but then I'm not sure a Nog-wolf would be so obvious.
Gwath suspects Nog and Volo. He's very against both of them, and to me seems to be doing some of what he accuses Nog.

It's just a little thing, but certain lycanthropic ancestors of myself and Nogrod have used an asymmetrical suspicion technique that looks just like that.

I need to read some more, though.

[Thinlómien]

[QUOTE=Nerwen]
However

[Thinlómien]

What?! I wrote a long post, then tried to edit it to correct a spelling mistake, but the computer refuses to post the original post (which I have copypasted) and only agrees to post that quote=nerwen -thing. I won't delete that post for the sake of following the rules but feel free to ignore it. I try to post my actual post soon but we'll see if this computer co-operates...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

Well, of course the wolves could gamble and thus have their next Night kill to other use but it seems quite stretched, especially as I don't think Lhuna was an obvious seer - quite on the contrary.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another interpretation is that she was getting something right with Gwath, Legate and / or Lommy and the wolf / wolves decided to take a dangerous adversary out of the way.

I think this theory is worth consideration - for the wolves will surely feel more safe when the seer is dead and they might assume we don't assume they would kill people who suspect them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You don't? Just look again your second post of toDay! To me your reaction looks just like "Oh my god he's saying something that doesn't rub me right! Attaaack!" And it doesn't help you that you try to downplay my thoughts on you as "preaching". That's cheap rhetorics and more a wolfy reaction than an innocent one.

Well if it looks like that to you, what can I do about it? I can't (thankfully) manipulate your impressions. Anyway, that was certainly what I thought and I guess I can't say more about it.

Also, I'm not downplaying your thoughts by labeling them as preaching. I think it's always worth it to hear what people have to say - even if it is nonsense. I was just expressing my annoyance at you obviously thinking me stupid and repeating your old speech about being nice. Everyone here has probably heard it dozens of times and I don't tend to be delighted by people thinking I'm an idiot. That is why what you said struck me as useless preaching - and now that I think of it, sort of trying to appear good. And my apologies if I'm offensive, I don't mean to be, but I think Nog won't think I hate him if I complain to him or be offended by my honest opinion (at least I hope so...) or do anything as silly, so I don't feel like hiding my message between nice "flowery" talk.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish.

Well, l(like I just said a few paragraphs above), what on earth could I reply to that. I can't help it if you see my actions as suspicious.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone.

If I'm surprised and sad by a kill, I tend to say it aloud. I might say things like that if I am a wolf, yes, but just look through a couple of late games and you see I do that as an innocent as well. Bad argument, Noggles.

Originally Posted by Noggie

Also you try to make a case of the Lhuna-"bandwagon" and how people fell on that feeble grounds (even the known innocent Agan "fell" for that having her as her second suspicion!) while it is also clear that there were only three votes for Lhuna and thence no mentionable bandwagon (wolvish way of pointing the attention away from you).

Attention away from me? When was it on me in the first place? Anyway, you can't claim the Lhuna-voting wasn't odd. Of course I want to have a look at it and of course it's important (regardless of Lhuna's role). I think three votes can be called a bandwagon. And lastly, I have no idea why are you using Aganzir's opinion as a point - the fact that Agan was innocent doesn't mean her opinions were necessarily well-reasoned. Besides, not everybody who voted Lhuna or considerec voting can be wolves (matemathically). And I have not even claimed that all wolves voted or considered voting Lhuna - I consider that really improbable. o what's the point?

And then you go on thinking whether the wolves were surprised Lhuna was a seer or just got lucky - which should be a thing the wolves would have thought (wolf-thinking).

What? I did not understand this pont. At all. Isn't them being surprised and getting lucky pretty much the same case? And how is that wolf-thinking? Really, I don't understand you.

Originally Posted by Kath

There is still doubt in me whether a Nog-wolf would behave quite as jumpily as Nog is, but then maybe he has comrades he doesn't quite know or it's a role he wasn't keen to have. I don't know, but whatever the case he is acting suspiciously.

I think he is not jumpy, but rather playing frustrated and offended to appear more innocent and exaggerating his initial reactions. That's what he did as a wolf in Agan's (?) game a while ago and he almost fooled me with it. I won't fall for it again. I think he also might be trying to provoke reactions with behaving sillyly, but who knows. Anyway, my suspicion of him has quite drastically increased toDay.

And a few words about Legate. In a way, I trust him more than many others in this village. He makes a lot of sense. But. There is something in his manner that doesn't sit quite right with me. I can't really pinpoint it, but it's disturbing. Maybe I should have a closer look at his posts, especially those of toDay, because they have been the ones to create this uncomfortable feeling.

Now, I'm finally going to see how Lhuna's lynch happened. Actually, rereading the whole thread wouldn't probably be bad.

[Thinlómien]

Yay, it worked. I wonder what was it...

Just a quick comment before rereading... I don't know what to make of Oddwen's appearance and what she's saying. Her rather bold claim that Lhuna dreamt of a wolf seems almost cobbleristic. Actually, her being a cobbler would explain more of her yesterDay's behaviour too, but I doubt we have a cobbler in this village. So what was my point? Umm... maybe that she's actintg a bit oddly.

[Thinlómien]

Some things I noted.

This (in)famous quote,

Originally Posted by Lhuna

As for the others, Volo is a lost explorer, Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims), Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity, and Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

So my pine cones tell me.

I think, points to Oddwen's inncence. Especially combined with this rather contradictory quote:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

At least I feel like concentrating my vigilance elsewhere (not on Oddwen, that is) for a day or two.

But actually, on the other hand, she might have dreamt of Gwath and found him guilty. Apart from that guilty lawyer -thing, there's this

Originally Posted by Lhuna's vote post, underlining by me

It must be Gwath's disadvantage at this point that I've never played with him before, so I don't know if he's being his usual self, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

That could be it, couldn't it?

Originally Posted by Gwath, underlining mine

However, Nogrod, you were awfully quick to identify my post as "wolvish"? You took no convincing whatsoever, so either you are trigger-happy and innocent, as Lhun said, or you really do know whether I am innocent or guilty. And THAT looks suspicious, because the only way you could know that is if you are a wolf yourself.

That was oddly phrased, for sure. Why say "whether I am innocent or guilty" if you're innocent? Wouldn't it first occur to an innocent to write "-- you really know my role" or "-- you really know I'm innocent" (although that latter phrasing would make less sense in the context)?

This comment of Legate's is quite odd

Originally Posted by Legate

In short: As you may have noticed, those who stay in shadows and say nothing are likely not to be examined by me at all. What does that mean? That everyone should speak to the matter! (Yes, someone had to say it )

It sounds suspiciously like he's making an excuse for ignoring a slip-under-the-radar fellow wolf.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Only after reading a few comments I realised Mith had actually said she's an ordo. Now all of us who have played with her know she doesn't like to lie whatever the case. It's part of her charming personality. But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

This could be a wolf trying to stop people trusting in an innocent.

Nogrod's suspicion and vote of Lhuna seemed quite opportunistic.
Nerwen's seemed innocent.
Gwath's seemed a bit eyebrow-raising-worthy but not that bad really.
But actually Legate, who didn't even vote Lhuna, looks the worst in this light. His suspicion of her comes rather from behind the corner and seems a little feigned.

Okay. I'm suspecting Nogrod, Gwath and Legate, but find it very improbable that they would form the wolf trio. Some two of them could be partners in crime but not all the three of them, it would be too insane.
Kath feels vaguely evil, based on her posts both ysterDay and toDay...

I have not reread toDay's posts since I didn't have time, but I will do that later.

[Thinlómien]

I just had a French lesson (how appropriate ) and something occured to me. Legate and Gwath are fellow wolves, it fits parfaitement. I don't have time to elaborate right now but I will definitely return to that, as well as finish rereading the thread.

Where is sally? And Volo and Elf-warrior? I need to hear more of them before I can say anything on them and I don't like it how they hide in the shadows... Speak up! Otherwise you'll creep me out.

PS. I seem to be flood-posting... just like in good old times, I see...

[satansaloser2005]

I sense that Lommy's fear of silence stems from long periods of isolation as a child. Perhaps she was locked in the highest room in the tallest tower in the great castle of Nog. Or maybe she's just afraid of Noggie's big yellow boots.


Sorry, sorry, SORRY! I'm here. Currently in a HUGE multi-tasking session to complete a ton of assignments, but here in spirit nonetheless. Some commentary on what I've seen, perhaps? I'll have to go back and read more thoroughly, but for now I've skimmed through (horribly busy weekend) and have a couple thoughts which I think bear analyzation.

Poor Lhuna! I really hate the bandwagon that developed on her, especially since we (and by we, I mean you all) knew that she was forced to leave early and wouldn't be able to defend herself. She spoke of Gwath in a way that makes me uneasy. Granted, I don't think she would make herself that obvious on the first day if she'd dreamt of him, but we have to consider it as a possibility.

And now Agan's dead too, which just rasps my berries. I'd been planning on buying a new pair of shoes tomorrow for our department banquet this weekend. Besides, I've been requiring a new couch for some time, as mine has been sat on by many a twisted mind, and I was wondering if she could do such a favor for me. Alas, now we will never know. Anyway, I think that A: the wolves have a leather fetish, an issue I won't even go into right now, B: they are avoiding the bulk of suspicion at the moment, and C: they killed Agan because....because....well, I don't know why. Wolves, you'll need to schedule an appointment with me sometime this week and we can discuss your motives, all right?



(Back to homework now, or I'm toast! And don't worry, I'll be voting and all, but my stuff needs to be done in an hour or two, so....you know....)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am posting from the school library *yay!* so I'll have to be brief, but you know what it is when I say "brief"...

Once again, the last posts of Nog made my suspicions drastically rise.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish. In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone.

This is very bad, isn't anyone allowed to express his feelings? And I did, too, because it was honest. Yes, wolves do that to cover themselves, but why to make a case of it, and in such a big manner.

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen ~ no real reasoning. Says she suspects Lhuna 'ish'. This is such a strangely supported vote that I actually feel it speaks to her innocence.

Seems logical, only let's remember this if either Kath or Nerwen show to be wolves, the other may be as well and this is the point of "easy defending the other".

Originally Posted by Kath

Lhuna posts:
Hmm, mentions a twist of some kind, as though she has something to say. A role hint maybe or something more.

Not quite sure about that, if anything I would consider more of a hint the words "or so my pine cones tell me". But it may be as well just some silliness and in-game thing.

Originally Posted by Kath

Votes Gwath mostly by a process of elimination. Is it possible that she dreamt of him? She has little forthright reasoning for her vote, yet has gone after him relatively strongly for Day 1.

Originally Posted by Oddwen

I am inclined to disagree with the theory that Lhuna dreamed of an innocent - reading over her posts the phrases regarding her suspicions seem to stand out to me...then again, she suspected three (Gwath, Nerwen, Nogrod), but only voted one...this sentence is going nowhere.

I would not think Lhuna dreamt of Gwath, although she could (not knowing him at all from games before, she picked him on first night). But as for what Oddwen says, the suspicion of three would not necessarily have to matter - she might have known one but suspected others, and eventually used the others to "shield" the fact that she's seer and really dreamt of one of them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, was Lhuna killed for giving Seer hints? We can't assume this, but if she was it's more likely it was for picking a wolf than for babbling about pine cones. (I'd guess Gwathagor, in that case.)

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

That's if she was killed for being a Seer and not just a nuisance.

What "killed"? I don't actually get your thinking here at all. Lhuna was lynched, by you among others, and I tend to think it was sheer luck, as it will be quite a feat for Wolves to reveal the Seer, then if possible all of them should know about it (!), and then most of them would have to vote her - the way you put it. Odd coincidences, would that be?
(But not sure what to make of it.)

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But actually, on the other hand, she might have dreamt of Gwath and found him guilty. Apart from that guilty lawyer -thing, there's this
That could be it, couldn't it?

That's actually not that bad idea. I'll have to look&think of it as soon as I get back home and have more time.

Originally Posted by Lommy

This comment of Legate's is quite odd

It sounds suspiciously like he's making an excuse for ignoring a slip-under-the-radar fellow wolf.

Nay, you misunderstand. I meant that I am not examining the ones who are silent, which I meant as a reproach, to make them post something.

All right. Need to leave, Phaedros awaits! See you in the evening! (my evening)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, l(like I just said a few paragraphs above), what on earth could I reply to that.

Well you managed to use a few pages into your reply... so obviously you were quite able to.

And after all this I think I have some reasons to believe you're more innocent than not (the way you reacted felt quite genuine) which I didn't have yesterDay. Sadly I can't say the same of Legate as his reactions to the affair felt more sinister. But without further points on him I would not like to vote for him at least yet.


So what to do? I think we have two promising possible slips.

So look at this quote from Nerwen after she defends her vote on Lhuna being forced to make it early:

I was, of course, afraid of wolves jumping on my vote

!!!

Also Lommy had a nice find from Gwath:

or you really do know whether I am innocent or guilty

I'd say Gwath's is more incriminating but I'm not feeling too good with Nerwen's either.

Also I still think Volo's self-vote was more suspicious than not.

The Elf Warrior and Sally should really come more forwards.

We're having an extra choir-rehersal but I will be back an hour or two before the deadline.

[Oddwen]

Rats, not enough time as I would like...

The tension between Lomgrod and Nogomien is setting off bells for me - I don't know if it's the family thing, or a pack thing.

From Nerwen, some defensiveness -

One thing I feel like nitpicking at is those who say "this player played this way", or "when this player was a wolf...", because not all of us have the privilege of experiencing this information, and are liable to have their heads turned...it seems that someone could hide something with it.

Alas, my time has run out and I must vote - I'm convinced that Lhuna dreamt of a Wolf - and his post(s?) toDay seemeth to me to be nearly too defensive.

Late for work,

++GWATHAGOR

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But I really don't even suspect him.

At least don't say it out loud. I have grudge against such votes, you know.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If I have to find good sides of the seer being dead, well, I can say I can stop seeing seers everywhere. Normally I don't pay any attention to gifteds but yesterDay I had about three or four seer candidates I was being careful with (and no, Lhuna was not among them). Now I can maybe look at them more neutrally.

Seers all over the place already on Day1? I find it hard to believe that Seers would be open at all on Day1 and I simply won't be convinced that Lhuna revealed her dream.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If you guys decide your votes on the basis of who is nice to you please go ahead but just remember the wolves are your best mates when the sun still shines. During the Nights it will be different.

I may shut my big mouth and not give you any new ideas if they so upset you. Or are you wolves who do not like the direction this is going?

Gah.

Sorry. I got a bit carried away but two similar posts like that following each other kind of frustrated me. Please go on and suspect me and I can say why you're wrong - and take my points on you in the similar fashion as decent questions to be answered by you.

Noggie, this was most unusual of you. Once I read through the whole thread I'll try to see what you mean.

I'm slightly uneasy about Lommy and Noggie. Ironically enough while reading through yesterDay, I got the idea that Aganzir must be Innocent - and then I remembered that she was Innocent indeed. :/ So while I think it's quite possible that she was killed because she was just generally thought Innocent (was she?) like Noggie said and even while I don't believe much or anything can be learnt from kills, I would like to remind you that Wolves do plan their kills, if not their general strategies.


I'll be back quite soon and I've decided that projects, homework etc. can go drown themselves. I'm playing WW, for Livingstone's sake!

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod's latest post gave me an innocent and laid-back feeling - did he craft the post hoping to make such an impression? Or is he really just innocent? Too bad...

Also, Legate should stop that behaviour instantly! Whatever I say about him, he posts right after me and changes my opinion. I mean, that post sounded very genuine and innocent (maybe especially if you discount a few phrases that weren't remarkably so). Maybe I should analyse his posts (do I really want to undertake such a project?) or something to form a clear picture of him...

Oddwen feels rather innocent. And I do not see why Nerwen's "slip" is incriminating.

Okay, now that I've had a quick word in, I'll go and reread toDay and also elaborate on the Gwath&Legate -thing...


edit: xed with Volo

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here, I haven't had a chance to read through yet. I managed to find out I was still alive last night but no more. I was a bit suprised since I reviewed Lhuna's post once I knew she was the Seer and thought I was the most likely Dream subject. This is a double edged sword since I am more likely to survive the days but less likely to survive the nights. Of course we may have a Ranger ...and one advantage of not knowing is that the wolves don't know either what limits on protection that ranger may have .. ..off to read

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What "killed"? I don't actually get your thinking here at all. Lhuna was lynched, by you among others, and I tend to think it was sheer luck, as it will be quite a feat for Wolves to reveal the Seer, then if possible all of them should know about it (!), and then most of them would have to vote her - the way you put it. Odd coincidences, would that be?
(But not sure what to make of it.)

A point of semantics... I guess I was thinking that if wolves indeed contributed to her death they "killed" her, but if it bothers you I'll amend it to "lynched".

The point I'm working up to is this: Lhuna spoke of a number of people, some as guilty and some as innocent. She could only have dreamed of one person. Do we take her lynching as confirmation that she dreamed of a wolf (in which case her comments about Mith and Oddwen are no use to us)? Or not?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nogrod's latest post gave me an innocent and laid-back feeling - did he craft the post hoping to make such an impression? Or is he really just innocent? Too bad...

Nogrod and Lommy are confusing me. Are they playing at accusing each other, with Lommy backing off when it gets too serious? Or is this Lommy flip-flopping as usual?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oddwen feels rather innocent. And I do not see why Nerwen's "slip" is incriminating.

Neither does Nerwen. After I voted Lhuna on what I admitted were weak grounds, I thought, "well, I hope she is guilty, because if not I've given the villains a nice opportunity". Why the "!!!"

[Mithalwen]

Or may be that is self-absorption/self-obsession/arrogance...delete according to your own opinion...

[Thinlómien]

Okay, nothing new to say about today after a reread.

Now onto Gwath and Legate...


Gwath about Legate

Day1
#27 Calls him reasonable and impenetrable, but doesn't like his "honest gut feelings". Ends up having no real opinion on him.
#51 Busts a myth about him trying to flatter Legate: says he merely called Legate rational and that it's an universal truth. Also busts a myth about him and Legate arguing in circles with each other: says he merely posted a brief paragraph about Legate.

Day2
- nothing this far -


Legate about Gwath

Day1
#32 Teases him with a nickname, says he makes him feel a little uneasy and both agrees and disagrees with him about Lhuna's lists, wonders/is suspicious of Gwath calling him reasonable. Concludes: "But overall, it's not that bad with Gwath. He's in the yellow zone for me (that's next to the green zone, which is okay). Gwathwolf used to be worse as far as I could tell from an observer-point."
#48 Says he's in his "yellow zone", but doesn't like him being a probable lynch-candidate. Strays from the Gwath-topic to talk about lynching quiet people, says that we could always lynch Gwathagor the following day.
#54 Speculates that Gwath could be Kath's fellow.
#55 Replies to Gwath's mythbusting: says he was not reasonable in the beginning of Day1 and that Gwath's other mythbusting concerning the two of them is right and implies claiming something like the "myth" is suspicious.
#73 Says he will leave voting Gwath for that day since he has lately seemed more reasonable.

Day2
#90 Doubts Lhuna dreamt of Gwath.
#111 Repeats the point mentioned above, although says she could have done so.


Conclusion: Just as bad as I thought it was. I really don't like the way they flip-flop and are indesicive about each other. They also defend each other a bit sneakily: Gwath does not defend only himself in his myth-busting and Legate is a tad too certain Lhuna didn't dream of Gwath. Also, his decidion not to vote Gwath looks a bit bad.
This of course doesn't prove that they're wolves. But if one of them is, I'd have a careful look at the other. There's something odd in here.


edit: xed with Mith, Nerwen and Mith

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Nogrod and Lommy are confusing me. Are they playing at accusing each other, with Lommy backing off when it gets too serious? Or is this Lommy flip-flopping as usual?

Well, I still suspect him. He's one of my top suspects. But that last post of his just sounded genuinely innocent, in a way. That's the truth of it. And trust me, if this strife was prearranged, I would not be backing away, but attacking more forcefully...