Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[Nogrod]

I see Nogrod's last comment as an attempt to make the ranger (if we have one) protect somebody else but me, in order to kill the seer without being rejected by him/her.
I therefore see no other possibility than to tell the truth.
I am the Seer.
I don't know for certain whether Nogrod is evil or not.
I know Lommy is evil.
If Nogrod is innocent, then shame on the both of us. You for discussing giftedness openly, me for being very, very stupid.

Shame on us, if you're innocently saying this. And let's hope then we have a ranger to protect you. But in that case you should have at least one more known innocent to us Mac. Right? Why don't you tell us her/his identity?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

(the previous message crossed with Mac)
Oh... crap.

I knew. Be there Roa not-or-yes-believe-the-revealed-Gifteds, I suspected you are, but I did not want to tell it. So I believe you. Well then, if you are, I am quite happy to know that I was not mistaken about Lommy. This would explain - and confirm - many things.

Hopefully, the Ranger will protect you this night... if so, I think you'll agree to attempt to "See" what Nogrod is.

[Mithalwen]

Mith is not a wolf .... fact ... maybe it would be most use to prove it by dying and remove a distraction...

I would prefer to remove Xyzzy but since that surely now is not an option today, it has to be Gil - he may be a misguided innocent but his reasonningis falwedandI know he is wrong about me but how can I prove it.. if I defend myself I get called over dramatic if I don't I am boring and say nothing - I am either ignored or regarded as underhand. j'en ai marre!

++ Gil Galad

[Mithalwen]

Oh blast I didn't see Mac's post.....

[Nogrod]

I see Nogrod's last comment as an attempt to make the ranger (if we have one) protect somebody else but me, in order to kill the seer without being rejected by him/her.

I hadn't quite gotten this far... I tried to make sense whether you were a lover (with Roa, possibly). I've not have time to think whether something I said would make the ranger (if there is one) to protect or not protect someone...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Shame on us, if you're innocently saying this. And let's hope then we have a ranger to protect you. But in that case you should have at least one more known innocent to us Mac. Right? Why don't you tell us her/his identity?

Oho! Only in the case the Ranger couldn't protect him. Which of course nobody except the Ranger knows for sure. On the other hand, it is true that even if Mac tells us about one innocent, the wolves can kill only either Mac or the innocent at night, so one would still be here at least one night. The problem is, that there would be one potential target for the wolves (if we don't have two rangers). Or if the person Mac dreamed about was not the Ranger himself...

What do you say to us, Mac?

[Macalaure]

Since my time is now limited indeed, here are my last thoughts now, and some details.


Night One I dreamt of Mith and she was innocent. I chose her because I simply had some hunch she might be evil in this game. Looking at her strange behaviour and her interaction with Nogrod especially today, I more and more get the feeling of her being the ordo lover of evil Nogrod. She could be a mytho, too (who are just innocents before night 2). I've been told she's innocent, but everything about her says the opposite.

Night Two I dreamt of Lommy, who is a werewolf. I chose her because she had the biggest question mark across her, because her role would be very telling concerning the behaviour of others (tgwbs and Legate, though I was wrong about the former) and, egoistically, because my vote would look hideous if she's evil.

Night Three I dreamt of Roa, who is innocent. Both she and Lommy interacted with tgwbs a lot, yet rarely interacted with each other, this made me suspicious.


Roa's innocence furthered my suspicions of Nogrod, but as you can see, I was already suspicious of him before I knew of it. To me, Nogrod looks very bad indeed.

[Macalaure]

Do we still have enough people here to make Lommy overtake Gil?

[Macalaure]

If I count correctly, Nog, Rikae and I are left to vote.

Either we all three vote Lommy to tie her with Gil, or Rikae and I vote Nogrod to tie him with Gil, in which case Nogrod will vote Gil to save himself.

++Thinlómien

[Nogrod]

Oh my Mac! I'm simply distrusting your deductions and your story sounds just too false!

If it were not the last minutes frenzy I think everyone could see through that.

But let's find out whether Lommy is an innocent or evil. I'm ready for the trial.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Woh... well then, I hope for our sake you are not a fake, Mac... though this is great. If correct, then please take away my last hints on Mith Only if she is not a Mithomaniac.

I hope the Ranger/Rangeress will look after you, Mac...

Originally Posted by mac

Do we still have enough people here to make Lommy overtake Gil?

Three, I think. You, Rikae and Nogrod. So it would be flip a coin. Proven that Lommy does not appear out of nowhere and vote for herself

[Roa_Aoife]

Strange timing, Mac, but I must say, don't worry, the ranger will protect you tonight. Tomorrow we'll find out if you're lying.

[Nogrod]

I wonder why it takes so long with Menel. We made a deal that Lommy's vote with some reasoning would come in - and it's to Mith...

What is it Menel? You said you would do it? Why do you wait? It should be known to all as soon as possible! And we discussed this a half an hour ago!

[Macalaure]

I hope we have a ranger, if not, then these are my last words:


Roa is innocent.

Mith is innocent, but my feeling tells me otherwise.

Lommy is evil.


I think Nogrod is the third wolf.

I think Six is innocent.

I can't say anything intelligent about xyzzy, but I think a newbie wolf would behave differently.

If Nogrod is innocent, then Gil might be the third wolf.

I think Rikae to be more on the innocent side, but I could be wrong.

I strongly think Legate is innocent, but you never know for sure.


And finally, a short apology for being so obvious about my knowledge. Even if Nogrod is innocent, his comment might have been good, because if so many have picked up on my role, the wolves probably have, too, and I might have died without sharing what I know.

It's been a really great game!

[Rikae]

++Gil Galad

[Nogrod]

Mac. Your story is the most unbelievable one I have seen yet.

Were you a wolf you might wish to sacrifice a fellow in a tight situation so if we manage to lynch Lommy, I don't think it cleans you anyhow.

But this is the gamble we should take...

++ Lommy

I hope Rikae appears from somewhere and gives a a chance to see something...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

++Gil Galad

Interesting choice, Rikae... Let's hope you're right.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

++Gil Galad

ewww

[Nogrod]

Do we have two cobblers? Rikae being the other one?

[Meneltarmacil]

The villagers went in search of Gil-Galad, their target for lynching.

"I'm not guilty, whatever you say," the Wild Bandito protested. "At least, not of being a filthy lobo."

"Yeah, right," Nogrod replied sarcastically. "Up you go, Wolf."

The villagers took him up to the gallows and put the noose around his neck.

"Gallows? I don't need no stinking gallows!" was the last thing the Bandito said before his neck snapped.

No transformation occurred. Gil-Galad was an Ordinary Villager.

Alive:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien
xyzzy

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Devoured by Wolves on Night 1
Glirdan (Werewolf): Stoned to death by Villagers on Day 1
the guy who be short (Cobbler): Became the guy who be hung by Villagers on Day 2
Brinniel (Ordinary Villager): Crushed under anvil by Wolves on Night 3.
Gil-Galad (Ordinary Villager): Didn't need no stinkin' lynching, but got one from Villagers on Day 3.

Day 3 is now over.

A note about those surprises I mentioned: Don't expect a lot of huge stuff. I was orignially going to include some major surprises, but had to scale the game back as I would need around 18-25 players to use them.

EDIT: Lommy had Nogrod relay a PM earlier saying:

++Mith

She just doesn't sit right with me. This is partly gut-feeling, but mostly for her attitude. For one, her pursuing the kill-slip thing seems too forced.

[Meneltarmacil]

While the villagers slept, Roa_Aoife remained awake, ostensibly clearing tables in her Inn, but actually sharpening her weapons in case the wolves showed up. Which they did.

It began innocently enough. Thinlómien wandered in and asked for something to help her sleep better, as she was too worried to do so with all these Wolves around. As the Innkeeper reached for some ingredients, the trap was sprung. Thinlómien transformed into a Wolf and leaped at Roa. The Hunter was badly wounded but managed to draw her knife and kill the Wolf with it. As she struggled to get up, however, she realized that there had been more than one Wolf around...

The villagers found both Roa's body and that of Thinlómien the next morning. Two kills had been made this Night.

Alive:
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
The Sixth Wizard
xyzzy

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Devoured by Wolves on Night 1
Glirdan (Werewolf): Stoned to death by Villagers on Day 1
the guy who be short (Cobbler): Became the guy who be hung by Villagers on Day 2
Brinniel (Ordinary Villager): Crushed under anvil by Wolves on Night 3
Gil-Galad (Ordinary Villager): Didn't need no stinkin' lynching, but got one from Villagers on Day 3
Thinlómien (Werewolf): Slain by Hunter on Night 4
Roa_Aoife (Hunter): Wounded and devoured by Wolves on Night 4

Day 4 has dawned.

[Macalaure]

To let everybody know right away:

I dreamt of Nogrod tonight, and to my very surprise, he came out innocent.

[Nogrod]

Whoa! Well done Roa! Even if it was only basic straightforward reasoning... but anyhow. Solid work! *bows*

I had already prepared myself to try and get you people speaking as much as you can even though we would be having a quite uneventful Day ahead (as we would lynch Lommy anyhow to get rid of a werewolf / to see whether Macalaure is/was the real Seer).

Now this is getting much more interesting indeed. Quite a setting I must say. Hopefully everyone is able to withold from voting until Mac comes back and gives us his dream of last Night. We may still have surprises here and any evil forces might be able to exploit them.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

To let everybody know right away:

I dreamt of Nogrod tonight, and to my very surprise, he came out innocent.

Surprise - surprise!

Now you may understand why I thought you and Roa having evil intentions behind the way you tried to make me look bad?

Okay. One Day to make a difference now then you and I. You'll most probably be dead the Night that follows and I will most probably be the next one to go.

[xyzzy]

Hooray, another wolf down.

Any leads? Will be home early tomorrow, will vote then.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'm sadly off to sleep now but I will be back with fresh energy later.

Just a few points to think about.

So we have at least one wolf to lynch.

Originally Posted by Menel in the narration

As she struggled to get up, however, she realized that there had been more than one Wolf around...

I don't know how deliberate this is, but you can all see the vague description "more than one wolf around". So it's not necessarily just one left.

And even if Menel downplayed the scale of surprises in his narration from yesterDay, I still think there is more underneath the surface than just one cobbler. I still think a pair of lovers could be the thing. So if you notice something like it, please let us all know. It may be important.

Then again. There are seven of us left. Three are known innocents - to a degree. If there are roles like lovers the seer dream would probably only show innocent for the part of the innocent lover. So Mith might be a lover still. I know I'm not a part of any lover-scheme, but you have only my word for it to be sure. And I was pretty uneasy with Mac's revelation yesterDay and - as we are in a game of Werewolf - I still can't be 100% certain about him. I tend to trust him now and will not even suggest lynching him toDay, but if he continues living for a Day or two I'll be rethinking it again - if I'm around to rethink anything...

So that leaves only four players. Legate, Rikae, Sixth and Xyzzy. At the first looking this would make Rikae look quite suspicious as she went for Gil against Lommy even though there had been a "seer-revelation" (which also could be partly confirmed only by lynching Lommy).

What say you?

[Rikae]

Well done, Roa! An excellent trap, with those Ranger-hints you dropped yesterday!
Mac, I'm sorry I didn't believe you.

As far as I can see, Legate and Xxzzy both look pretty bad.
I'll trust Mac on Nogrod and Mith. I take it there are meta reasons to trust Sixth? Perhaps we should talk openly today - I, at least, think I missed something.

I certainly hope there's only one wolf left; because if not, and we waste today's lynch, we'll be 3 innocents and 2 wolves tomorrow. I can't imagine Menel saddling such a small village with four wolves, though.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Gaaah! I was wrong! NOO! Actually I was wrong twice, because Gil-Galad was an innocent too. Curse Werewolf! Curse them, we hates them! (for a few minutes the Sixth Wizard rambles and mutters to calm his nerves)

So, 1 more wolf left, no ranger or cobbler. Seer? That leaves five innocents. I think that there would be at least one more role filled. A likely explanation is lovers, in which case we have the advantage, because if we lynch one, we get the other, obviously.

Now I can see why I wasn't eaten, because I was unfortunately a staunch supporter of Lommy. And the ranger's gone, guys, I have to say I'm doomed.

I'll post some more stuff later, don't feel like it now.

[Rikae]

Roa wasn't a ranger, Sixth, she was a hunter. We may still have a ranger.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oh my Mac! I'm simply distrusting your deductions and your story sounds just too false!

This isn't a really pressing point, but I thought I should address it anyway.

I didn't want to play the common dreams-of-his-top-suspect seer. Instead, I wanted to dream of people whose roles will throw some light on other people regardless whether they come out good or evil. Lommy's role also gave some light to Legate and tgwbs (I suspect tgwbs really thought Lommy innocent; and I do not forget that I could be wrong about Legate), and Roa's gave some to Nogrod (though it turns out she and I were wrong now).
So my plans didn't really work out, except that I was lucky about Lommy, who might have slipped under the radar otherwise.

Originally Posted by Roa

Strange timing, Mac, but I must say, don't worry, the ranger will protect you tonight. Tomorrow we'll find out if you're lying.

So we do have a ranger, and not two hunters or something. Good. I hope s/he gambled, though.

Concerning the timing, well, I only felt the need to reveal after Nogrod wrote this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was afraid that Mac's sudden changes of view were because he was the seer. But now I see he changes his course mainly in the middle of the Day.
...
It's kind of revealing that in his first post on Day2 he thinks I'm somewhat clear and after that he changes totally and starts slowly increasing the pressure with me during the same Day (alongside Roa, I must add). So no seer he is.

His sudden insistance that I'm not the seer (coming from my top undreamt-of suspect!), had my alarms on. I thought he was trying to direct the ranger the wrong way, so he wouldn't have to worry about him/her when he kills me in the night. I thought that maybe he thought I had dreamt of him and therefore he didn't fear suspicion. Had I tried to give a hint to the ranger myself, it would have had the same effect as to reveal my role, just without letting you know of my knowledge.

Well, anyway. Since it seems like many have thought me to be the seer, the wolves probably have, too. So it's not as desastrous as it seems.

Oh, and of course I didn't alter my suspicions from the first post on the day on. That would have made me look seerish.



Nogrod and Mith are almost known innocents, now. But we should be careful, because they could be the lover (if lovers exists) of the last wolf, and Mith could have been a Mytho. The two aren't proven innocent.
This leaves Six, xyzzy, Legate and Rikae. Rikae looks suspicious indeed. Everybody should have a look at the posts of Lommy and Roa, though I already did that all the time the last two days. Sadly, I will probably be short on time toDay, but I'll try what I can.

[Nogrod]

Just a short one at this point.

The ranger might be wise to come out in the open now. It would narrow our choices toDay down to three.

I mean we only have two or three Days left this game - depending on the roles there are in the first place (with lovers or two cobblers the game ends within two Days, with only one wolf left it's at highest three Days).

I mean: I'm afraid that we have only two lynches left and we need to get it right with those two trials. So any narrowing down of the suspects would be welcome indeed.

So think of it ms./mr. ranger.

I would like to hear other opinions on this too but at least now it looks to me the sensible move to make.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, reviewing everything. The tide has turned, and quite well. We don't have to lynch Lommy today, which would be a sure option anyway, but we have one "free" wolf down due to Roa and now have to decide. I'm trying to make a little summary here, it is more or less statement, but it helped me to realize what we are in. So the situation:

Now we know 99,999% Mac is not a fake seer, which would be nonsense even now, because the real seer would really have to reveal at this time. Thus, we have Mac, Mith and Nogrod as known innocents now. And me (the remaining innocents please apply this theory on yourselves if you don't trust me. The examples are written from a point of view of an innocent who is not included in the Mac-Mith-Nogrod group of known innocents, because these people have one less villager to choose the werewolf from, because they know about themselves they are innocent, AND they know it about all the three Revealed. The Revealed know it about themselves, but they are already included in the cleared suspects, so they have four, and not three villagers to choose from. Hope this is clear).

Apart from that there are three possible werewolves.

Now, if we had only three Wolves in here (which I think is more probably, given our numbers and given that there was the Cobbler):
Even if we lynch an innocent today, and a wolf kills one of our proven innocents (e.g. Mac, the worst option for us) tonight, we'll have 100% innocent Mith and Nogrod and two people to choose from. If we lynch an innocent even tomorrow, and the wolf kills e.g. Mith, if she is not a lover or something like that, then the next morning we have one innocent ("me", or "you") who knows now 100% who the wolf is (because he is the "other one"), one wolf (the remaining unknown villager) and known innocent Nogrod. It would be up to him now to decide the fate of the village.

This is the worst option though. I don't want to give any false feelings of safety or cast defeatism on the remaining wolf (or wolves, if they were more than three). I am not including variants like "ranger protecting the right person" which would mean ultimate victory. So, we'd have to be VERY unlucky not to lynch the wolf. Though, if he is very sneaky, he could do it.

Originally Posted by Mac

Nogrod and Mith are almost known innocents, now. But we should be careful, because they could be the lover (if lovers exists) of the last wolf, and Mith could have been a Mytho.

I think quite paradox... xy.. xically... how do you say it? - it would be good for us if there were lovers in the village, since even if we lynch an innocent and he proves to be a Lover, then the wolf dies. On the other hand, the Lovers could very nastily sway the voting to their favor. If we assume that there were just three wolves, now, if there is a Lover among us, the victory of lovers now equals to the victory of the Werewolves.

The other thing is, when we had a Hunter, we probably have a Ranger as well - makes sense? And then he/she's still alive.

Soon I will write about the remaining suspects, when I re-review them.

P.S. Bzzzt... Menel... technical... you have Roa written both among the living and the dead...

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The ranger might be wise to come out in the open now.

Well, we cannot still know for sure. I considered it as well, but there might be a fake Ranger coming out of nowhere. On the other hand, even if a fake Ranger comes out, then we'd have two suspects for today: one fake Ranger and one true Ranger. So... hmm... yes, maybe it's a good idea. Even if we'd lynch our own Ranger today, we'd have one 100% kill tomorrow. So yes, I'd go for it.

So YES! That's the best idea I have seen so far. You deserve a medal, Nogrod.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Rikae, did I overlook it or have you still not explained why you didn't vote for Lommy yesterday? If anything, you should explain it. And not speaking about it yourself does not help. It might seem like you want people to forget it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Rikae, did I overlook it or have you still not explained why you didn't vote for Lommy yesterday? If anything, you should explain it.

That's what I wondered already yesterDay. Her vote kind of stands out...

I will be making an analysis on Rikae anyhow after I have had something to eat. I try to be more balanced with it now than as I was with Mac yesterDay (sorry Mac but the way you and Roa went on pressing a case against me from nothing looked very bad and made me try and see any possible suspiciousness in your posting to reveal your malvolent intentions... )

So a waffling analysis to come in an hour or something.

Originally Posted by Legate

You deserve a medal, Nogrod.

Thanks Legate. Although I thought that if we didn't spell out the consequences we might have had a chance to lure the wolf to actually pose as a ranger and thence make the village-victory 100% stuff... But no problem. It's pretty probable that the wolf would have seen the danger and avoided it anyhow.

Let's finish this toDay.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Rikae, did I overlook it or have you still not explained why you didn't vote for Lommy yesterday? If anything, you should explain it. And not speaking about it yourself does not help. It might seem like you want people to forget it.

I believe I said "I'm sorry I didn't trust you, Mac."
It looks like more explanation is required, though.

I'm sorry I didn't trust that you were bluffing about Roa, Mac. In the last frenzied moments of the day, all I could think of was that I knew Roa was the hunter, and you appeared not to.

Ranger Rikae, at your service.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod.
I was going to be lynched anyway, and it looks like I probably still will; but (once again ) I implore you not to waste a lynch. I'm done for anyway.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm sorry I didn't trust that you were bluffing about Roa, Mac. In the last frenzied moments of the day, all I could think of was that I knew Roa was the hunter, and you appeared not to.

Argh! I didn't give away her role intentionally, because I wanted to leave the wolves in the dark about the hunter. I didn't think about what kind of impression this would leave to the ranger.

Poor Gil...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(sorry Mac but the way you and Roa went on pressing a case against me from nothing looked very bad and made me try and see any possible suspiciousness in your posting to reveal your malvolent intentions... )

Hehe, it was a very fun read, btw. Of course it sealed your guilt in my mind at the time.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ranger Rikae, at your service.

Well, after all this discussion about the ranger-revelation this is a nice thing to hear. So we'll have to wait for Xyzzy and The Sixth to come in and make their stance on the issue (whether they claim to be rangers or not). It looks like Legate is not claiming it.

So unless Xyzzy or The Sixth come to contest your word Rikae I will not be suggesting lynching you - and will probably leave the analysis I was about to get started to a later moment (toMorrow perhaps, if we don't get the wolf toDay). But I need to check a couple of things before... just to be on the safe side.

The next question to be considered surely is: if Mac and Rikae are true (not the lovers playing a very risky game indeed), that will leave as our last wolf someone from the trio Xyzzy, The Sixth and Legate. That means: back to the drawing-board...

Just to make the old point once again. Funny how the gifteds so easily look like wolves! Mac, Roa, Rikae - I've suspected everyone of them in this game, pretty heavily indeed...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I was going to be lynched anyway, and it looks like I probably still will; but (once again ) I implore you not to waste a lynch. I'm done for anyway.

Although this is curious... Why do you talk like this? If we have reason to believe you're the ranger (no one contests your status), why should we lynch you? And you're not done for anyway - if what you say is true and what Mac say is true - because then the wolf will kill Mac the next Night and you will be here toMorrow as well. Unless we catch the wolf toDay, of course.

*puzzled*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ranger Rikae, at your service.

Oh, what the...?

I didn't expect that - actually, hadn't you been the Ranger, I'll probably lynch you, since you haven't included any worthy explanation with your Gil vote and all that stuff.

Okay, but now we, common people (me and the other good guy from the two) have only two options to vote. You others have three. This surely helped. Now I'm going to analyze these two folks, and see. On xyzzy there is probably not much to analyze, but still... on Six, fortunately, also not too many posts to go through, though at least something to analyze.

Originally Posted by Mac

Well, after all this discussion about the ranger-revelation this is a nice thing to hear. So we'll have to wait for Xyzzy and The Sixth to come in and make their stance on the issue (whether they claim to be rangers or not). It looks like Legate is not claiming it.

Agreed. I am not a Ranger, and unless Rikae is playing a game with us in hoping that the two guys are not going to show to claim their rightful Rangership, this matter is clear.

Don't log off, I'll be back. And let's also wait what these two guys do when they show up.