Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[The Sixth Wizard]

Ok people, 10:00 pm (!) or so where I live so I must conduct a finale to my Day.

Gil-Galad ~ Keeps saying we are spread out in our suspicions, that he doesn't like what we are doing (and we have generally been on target so far) generally deterring us from things, doubtful of TGWBS's treachery, regularly suspicious vs. Mith and no-one else, which I think may be a way to keep us off track...

Legate of Amon Lanc ~ Really suspects everyone. He is very smart, I percieve. Blah blah blah... He seems too neutral for me to throw a vote away with him.

Macalaure ~ Same as above. Analyses a couple of people. Doesn't feel guilty overall, votes Lommy for discernable reasons.

Mithalwen ~ Pretty boring really. She doesn't say much in her (short) posts, though she insists quite overactively that she is innocent. Quite open, actually, openly suspects TGWBS as a gifted, and says :

You are .... you are.....

Nogrod ~ Garr, it's as if he's trying to put us off with LONG, I must admit, waffling posts. So let's decide from his votes. YesterDay: TGWBS. First Day: Glirdan. Two hits. So he is too innocent in his voting to be a wolf in my opinion, at least not yet. Plus he posts near the end of the Day, where the votes are decisive.

Rikae ~ Doesn't say much. I believe in the phrase 'innocent until proven guilty'. Perhaps people will exploit that of me in more Werewolf games.

Roa_Aoife ~ Another long poster like Nogrod. Her votes: YesterDay: Gil-Galad. First Day: TGWBS. Not too much to be discerned and I can't be bothered reading over hers in general.

The Sixth Wizard ~ The one and only!

Thinlómien ~ I'm thinking you'd have to be a suicidal wolf to vote and act the way Lommy has been. I find suspicions about her reasonable, but not truths. I don't, however condemn those who suspect her. Hey, I've been right thus far with voting the same as Lommy, why change now...

xyzzy ~ Innocent until proven guilty.

So my final decision... !

++Gil-Galad !

Good Night Everyone and don't let the Werewolves bite!

[Meneltarmacil]

*re-animates*

I've already explained why there was no kill on Night 2 on the admin thread.

*crawls back into grave*

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, sorry, but this is extremely wolvish. "Hello folks. This and this happened. But wait - this looks strange. WHAT DO YOU THINK...?" Provoking a nowhere leading discussion, which could be as well the reason to kill Brinniel.

I don't see it as a discussion leading nowhere. There is a reason she was killed, whether it is the reasoning that she looked too innocent to leave alive, or if it was to draw suspicion away from/to the people she thought innocent or guilty. Or perhaps even because they suspected her of being gifted. I want to know that reason, because it will give huge insight into the wolves. Again, from "Werewolf 101" is lesson 42 "Always try to understand why a person was killed by the wolves." (Specifically Derived from the book "Advice on Hunting Wolves-- by Roa Johnson.")

I find the people more eager to dismiss such discussion as wolvish, not those who would encourage it. *imagines Brinniel screaming at her screen because everyone is dismissing her death as uninformative*

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

I think people she exonerated should be analyzed, as well as people she didn't. I just don't have the time for it this game, so unless someone really worries me, I'm not going to bother. But I am not the only villager here.

Right now, Legate and Nogrod are not looking to good because they insist on dismissing the possibilities. Wolves wanting to hide their true reasoning would do that.

I'm really low on time. Legate has been bugging me for a while, but I've been so sure of Nogrod and Gil that I had excluded the possibility. (That'd be four wolves, after all.) But I find myself less sure of Gil, now, and Legate's continued insistance that we don't know that we don't have a ranger who stopped the kill on Night two bugs me. We all know the reason. I wish I had time to do the analysis of him.

And don't think I've forgotten Rikae. I still don't like how people are quick to discount her becuase of vote placement. If she's a wolf, we'll have played right into her hands.

I'm going to look at the two as much as I can, but I'm low on time. (I'll look at Rikae first- she has a third of what Legate's posted. I'll analyze at Legate toNight, and post that Day 4 first thing, provided I am still alive.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I don't see it as a discussion leading nowhere. There is a reason she was killed, whether it is the reasoning that she looked too innocent to leave alive, or if it was to draw suspicion away from/to the people she thought innocent or guilty. Or perhaps even because they suspected her of being gifted. I want to know that reason, because it will give huge insight into the wolves.

But the point was not that looking for evidence why Brinn was killed is useless. The point was that starting a debate on it without actively posting anything is useless. Simply said: if you already started to dig into that case, I'd expect you to say in the next moment "and I looked into it and I think it happened like this". Otherwise it seems that you don't have any interest in the subject you - yourself - brought into spotlight.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

and Legate's continued insistance that we don't know that we don't have a ranger who stopped the kill on Night two bugs me. We all know the reason.

Continued? I said it once, if I remember correctly. And I said it because someone wasn't sure that the no-kill was really only because the wolves didn't send a kill, not because the Ranger saved it. And as you see, some didn't until now - look up before your post, where Six still had some doubts on it and poor Menel himself had to rise from his grave.

However, back to the topic:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

I was about to point that if Lommy is among the wolves, it was a good move for the Wolves not to kill anyone from the Lommy-voters, otherwise, things might have become far more clear. So if you ask me, as I said earlier - and Mac said something similar - I think there are no "personal interests" in killing Brinniel.

I'm still waiting for more input from some other people, though... seems we are not hearing from Lommy today, so I might reconsider voting for her and wait till (if) she shows up.

[Roa_Aoife]

Rikae
Day 1
1st post - in character nonsense

2nd post - disagreement with Roa, would rather gifted come forward, slight suspicion

Interestingly, I was looking for people to debate my post. I figured the wolves (and apparently the cobbler) would try to carry on the debate about roles. Rikae was the first, and so seems to have fallen into the trap. I wonder though- she seems to take issue more with the way I argued rather than what I argued.

3rd post - Doesn't know what to make of Glirdan, will reserve judgement, Finds TGWBS off, primarily because of his accusations against Roa and Thin, points out that a hunter may not get to kill if lynched, doesn't like Legate's attitude

4th post - Says she hasn't had time to read through entirely, votes Glirdan.

This coupled with the last post bothers me slightly. She was so unsure of Glirdan, then suddenly pops in to vote for him. Admittedly, her vote tied Glirdan with Lommy, but she herself sad that she hadn't had time to finish the read through, so she may not have realized this was the case. She offers no further reasoning. It's very convenient for her that Glirdan was lynched and revealed to be evil- otherwise, she would have come under some fire for this.


Day 2
1st post - Thinks that the lack of kill means that a ranger protected the victim, finds TGWBS suspicious for tying Lommy with Glirdan, also Brinniel, for promising not to vote for a now known wolf, and for her last post of Day 1, thinks Nogrod and sixth are innocent

Knowing now that TGWBS was a cobbler, he makes a nice target for Rikae, who, if evil, could only have known that he was not a wolf. That is admitedly a big if, though.

2nd post - doesn't think Nogrod would sacrifice a fellow wolf so early, gives reasons why Nogrod could have saved Glirdan

Seeing as how I believe Nogrod is evil, I wonder if Rikae would defend him so. I somehow doubt it. Of course, if he's not (I can be wrong), and she is, this could be an attempt to "make friends" with a very powerful player. On the third hand, she could just be an innocent who really believes Nogrod is innocent.

3rd post - Defends Sixth to Legate, thinks Legate needs to be looked at more closely, Votes TGWBS, thinks Roa has a good point about Gil.

This looks very innocent, actually. Votes and leaves again.


Day 3
1st post - hasn't seen a plausible case for Lommy being a wolf



On the whole, she looks more innocent than guilty. However, there are a few things that irk me, and her reponse to my first post, which was used by a known wolf to attack me, makes me wonder. I can see her laughing evilly as a wolf because very few people suspect her, but I could also see her as a really good innocent. It's a tough call. I never like to exonerate anyone completely (that's how wolves slip by) but I don't think that justifies lynching her toDay. Tomorrow may be a another story.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have to leave NOW.

++Nogrod

As if it's any surprise.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

++Nogrod
As if it's any surprise.

Well, in a sense it is. I mean it took you up to Day3 to come up with that action...

Okay. I've read the thread through with some speed. I need to eat now but will be back soon enough.

But I must say that Roa's vote didn't help to lower my suspicion of her at all. Not that she voted for me - as anyone has the right to vote for whomever they wish - but the lack of anything credible behind it. That doesn't sound like an innocent Roa at all. I'll be back with this later.

Also I've been thinking that as we clearly don't seem to have a werebear in this game (there was only one kill last Night and none in the first) it would suggest that we have lovers on board. Menel promised surprises and having a cobbler hardly counts as one. There might even be other ones but it's probably insensible to go on speculating about those too much.

It's looking interesting how f.ex. Macalaure has defended Roa from Day1 on quite insistently - his last post is one of the most curious where he says that he can't find anything suspicious about her - and basically suspects only Lommy - but when he finally lists his last doubts; whether Gil, Legate, Rikae or myself have indeed fooled him marvellously, he doesn't mention the chance that Roa has fooled him (which should always be on one's mind...). I'm just curious about that. I'll come to this later as well.

And a small correction still:

Originally Posted by Roa

Right now, Legate and Nogrod are not looking to good because they insist on dismissing the possibilities. Wolves wanting to hide their true reasoning would do that.

I have nowhere stated that we should not look at what Brinniel has said. I openly said we might gain something from her posting - as from anyone's posting. And here we know she was innocent at least, so even if she didn't knew any more than we do, we can rely on her having good intentions and not trying to mislead us. Surely. But what I think was important to say was that I'm afraid the main reason she was killed lies elsewhere than in the actual substance she said. That I'm afraid is still true *cursed meta-reasons*. We should also remember that the wolves may also sway the interpretation on why someone was killed to serve their purposes. So insisting on reading something out of them is not any less suspicious than remarking their possible non-exacteness at particular situations. Indeed the wolves are much more ready to twist the interpretation of the dead one as they have had time to discuss and think the situation before the Day dawned.

[Macalaure]

Noggie, you're not helping your own cause.


Why do you suddenly start to speculate about werebears and lovers?

There might even be other ones but it's probably insensible to go on speculating about those too much.

Hear, hear...


I'm not aware that I've been defending Roa. I'm only saying that she looks innocent to me, which is what she does.

he doesn't mention the chance that Roa has fooled him

I also didn't say explicitly that Mith might have fooled me. Of course that chance exists. At this point right now, I just feel it far less likely than that Rikae or Legate might have.


And then there's a "small" correction about a point which is absolutely uninteresting. A debate about whether Brinn's points are useful or not is pointless (in the truest sense of the word), and bringing it up / keeping it in the spotlight - wolvish! If somebody picks something good up from her, excellent, but this is silly.


Waffles with cream.

[Macalaure]

Right now, I am still very suspicious of Lommy, but I obviously can't bring up anything new about her. I won't vote for her today, unless I really can't find anybody better, because she had no possibility to participate on this Day.

The great alternative would be Nogrod. He looks very suspicious at some times and very unsuspicious at other times. The alarming thing: everytime I played against an evil Nogrod, I felt about him this way!

I won't vote for Roa, Mith, Six and xyzzy.

I most probably won't vote for Rikae and Legate, unless somebody brings some very good points about them, or they themselves start acting wolvish suddenly.

Gil would be the only other candidate. I need to have a closer look at him to see clearer.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And then there's a "small" correction about a point which is absolutely uninteresting. A debate about whether Brinn's points are useful or not is pointless (in the truest sense of the word), and bringing it up / keeping it in the spotlight - wolvish! If somebody picks something good up from her, excellent, but this is silly.

Funny you didn't point at Roa with that - who actually brought this issue back and used it to lay suspicion on me and Legate...

And I do disagree with you a bit. When something like that is used as a suspicion-caster there are all the reasons to counter them - at least when they are clearly fabricated... The bit I agree with you is that debating whether there is something in Brinn's posts without actually pointing to some is futile.

Why do you suddenly start to speculate about werebears and lovers?

Because I started to get a feeling I was looking at a pair of lovers staring me from these pages we play...

EDIT: X'd with Macalaure

[Mithalwen]

I am here .... just ponderingand possibly sulking

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Gil would be the only other candidate. I need to have a closer look at him to see clearer.

Gil has fixated on me for some reason. I tend to suspect him becasue I know I am innocent (well I would say that wouldn't I?). However, I would point out that had I been a wolf there would have been a kill on night 2. No way would I have missed it. Smilarly, had I been a wolf I would not be so keen to remove the ambiguity of Xyzzy. Such players are gifts to wolves. Had I been a wolf Brinniel would nothave been my choice of kill. Far too obvious to kill someone who had suspected me so much .....

Strange and boring enough for you.....?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Funny you didn't point at Roa with that - who actually brought this issue back and used it to lay suspicion on me and Legate...

And I do disagree with you a bit. When something like that is used as a suspicion-caster there are all the reasons to counter them - at least when they are clearly fabricated...

Clearly fabricated? If you say so...

Actually, it's not so much that you brought that thing up again: it's the length of it (esp. after having said: "And with that I'll shut my mouth with that discussion."). Even worse: you claim that it's a small correction. It's a whole paragraph!

Just like with the comment about lovers (adding: "it's probably insensible to go on speculating about those too much." to it), this looks like a wolf throwing out even two lures for people to discuss things that are irrelevant.

[Gil-Galad]

Sigh...

Gil-Galad ~ Keeps saying we are spread out in our suspicions, that he doesn't like what we are doing (and we have generally been on target so far) generally deterring us from things, doubtful of TGWBS's treachery, regularly suspicious vs. Mith and no-one else, which I think may be a way to keep us off track...

so many mis-conceptions...

Keeps saying we are spread out in our suspicions, - i said that once on the first day, that is it, please make sure you've reviewed over who you are voting for

that he doesn't like what we are doing (and we have generally been on target so far) generally deterring us from things, - i'm just receiving mixed messages from everyone and its confusing... as i stated before

doubtful of TGWBS's treachery - when did i say that??

regularly suspicious vs. Mith and no-one else, which I think may be a way to keep us off track... - easier to take on one person at a time then the whole vilalge... its common sense


and for Mith, i'm sorry, you are not yourself and it is bugging me way to much, i don't like it one bit and i must finish you off before i move on

++ Mithalwen


another defensive case, I have been casted as a wolf along with brinniel, why would i corner myself by killing off Brinniel?

next day, if i am still alive, i will look more closely at Roa and Macalaure

till then, good day my friends

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Noggie, you're not helping your own cause.

Originally Posted by Mac

The alarming thing: everytime I played against an evil Nogrod, I felt about him this way!

Mac, you're not helping your own cause.

Jokes aside. You are kind of doing the things a baddie would do.

First of all you shield the point made by saying that making of the point makes the maker look bad. So you haven't an answer, right? No one had suspected this so far and you were caught unarmed?

Secondly. I don't know how you have felt playing with me in the previous games (and whether you lie or beautify the truth in some way or not), but I happen to know you're wrong. So either your feelings are not much to be relied on or then you try purposefully to lead people astray. I know you others only have my word for it, but to me it's true enough to raise my eyebrows with Mac once again.

Thirdly. You seem to neatly downplay all the suggestions that Roa might not be a goodie. You've done that consistently since the dawn of Day1. Sorry, I've read the whole thread with my eye on that one thing as well. And you continue with it. Were you an innocent, you would not be that sure of it. You didn't say that Mith could deceive you either. Sure. And not of many others... But of all the people you leave Roa outside all doubt and f.ex. doubt Legate whom you know very well not to be a wolf! That is downright suspicious I say.

I was slightly thinking whether Mac and Roa were the lovers. Now I must say that Mac's reactions have strengthened my suspicions of that. They might be wolves too. Sure. But there is something wrong in there I say. What is it in the end I'm not sure (Menel might have surprises as he promised).

But seeing as I am that I'm suspecting two major forces in here I need to make a reservation for the common good. At least I will have to think this through once more. So please, don't you anyone make the nasty move Xyzzy made as he jumped on the first one he saw there was something up in the air against. Even though I suspect Roa somewhat, I really distaste the way Xyzzy voted for her.

If we have nothing better to go on this evening I might be again ready to vote for him as well. If he takes part as much he's done this far and if he behaves like he has behaved (jumped with the closest suspicion and disappeared with it), he will be a real threat - or at least too much of a gamble - to the village later on.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by Mac

Even worse: you claim that it's a small correction. It's a whole paragraph!

C'mon my friend... Losing with actual arguments now are we?

[Rikae]

It seems to me our best bet is still analyzing Glirdan's interactions with the other players. Of the dead, he's the only one that actually knew anything, and the other wolves knew him, unlike TGWBS.

So, a bit of Day 1 analysis:




In his first post, he mentioned Brinniel and “those wizard type people” - Sixth and Mac, while in his second he mentions Brinniel again, Mith and Gil before using my post as a reason to suspect Roa, who turns around and immediately suspects him. While I wouldn't put sacrificing a fellow wolf beyond Roa (she's said she would do it in this game alone), I somehow doubt wolf-Gil would leap on the first hint of a suspicion like that if it was for a fellow wolf. He could just as easily have ignored it.

Sixth's comment “unlike Glirdan, who could well be a bad guy.” looked very suspicious at the time, probably too suspicious after the fact to actually be wolfish.

Lommy drew more attention to Glirdan when only Roa had already suspected him, even to the point of calling his post an “example from the classic spot-a-wolf book”.

Mac expressed a milder sort of suspicion toward Glirdan, saying he “raises one of my eyebrows” and “looks a bit bad”. This doesn't reflect favorably on Mac, as far as I'm concerned; he could hardly ignore a fellow wolf looking so suspicious, but he downplays the level of it while cautiously tossing a bit of suspicion in another direction with “Beware of those who try to discreetly encourage such discussions without taking active parts in them!”

Lommy votes for Glirdan with the disclaimer “it's never wise to judge on the basis of a few posts”.

Sixth votes for Glirdan “Death to you!”

Glirdan defends himself suspecting Lommy and Sixth, but chooses to vote for Sixth.


The Cobbler who be short weighs in , suspecting Lommy and Sixth, and defending Glirdan.

Legate, in his first post late in the day, includes gratuitous in-character stuff, suspects Sixth...for his comment on Glirdan, no less – and mentions Glir-wolf in one breath with Roa (who I'm inclined to think is innocent at this point) and yours truly (innocent) with the suggestion there's wolves involved in this “three way debate”, or specifically; “one wolfy sluggard could no problem hide in there”. A very suspicious comment, in my opinion, especially since Legate doesn't address the Glirdan issue directly.

Gil suspects Thin and Lommy. No mention of Glirdan.

Nogrod's comment on Glirdan is “Glirdy, then? He looks so bad again... but I would actually hesitate with lynching him once again on Day 1 because he looks suspicious.” Wolf handbook material right there; I may have been wrong to trust Nogrod.

Roa, in spite of her initial suspicion of Glirdan, votes for TGWBS. Slightly suspicious, though she gives several reasons.

Nogrod posts some he-looks-odd near suspicions of TGWBS, Legate, Sixth, and an even weaker parenthetical half-accusation of Glirdan.

Legate says he thinks TGWBS and Roa both innocent. (Not Glirdan related, but I always find these “two innocents” statements somewhat wolfish.)

Mith defends Roa, Glirdan seems “off, but sometimes people genuinely get the wrong head of the stick”, suggests lynching Xyzzy.

Legate gives a random seeming list of me, Lommy, and the wizards, Sixth and Mac...then some mild suspicion of Nogrod and Brinniel. No mention of Glirdan.

Nogrod states he feels “pretty uncomfortable with lynching Glirdy”

Mac suspects TGWBS, the “only other person to wave a flag is Glirdan, but I'd rather hear of him tomorrow.”

Nogrod groups Gil with Glirdan, says it's “like flipping a coin”. This is at the top of his list, then he says “I'm quite sure that at least one wolf dwells at the top of my list, most probably two.” A very bold statement indeed, if he's a wolf, and then he considers voting for one.

Legate again posts a long post with no mention of Glirdan...considering voting for Xyzzy, agreeing with Gil, suspecting Lommy and Nogrod.

Mac suspects Glirdan, but votes TGWBS.







My conclusions: Legate looks the worst to me, and I will probably vote for him; Nogrod is somewhat suspicious, as well.

[Macalaure]

Nogrod, why do you respond to the same post twice? First spontaneous, and now in this elaborate and sweetly ironic way?

So either your feelings are not much to be relied on or then you try purposefully to lead people astray.

Whether I try to lead people astray we will only know after the game is over - or I'm dead. I'm not sure of the reliability of my feelings, but I remember being called the one 'who is always right', by... you. I can't believe to read this mild irony above from the typing hands of an innocent Nogrod.

You seem to neatly downplay all the suggestions that Roa might not be a goodie. You've done that consistently since the dawn of Day1.

Let's see. On Day One I indeed defended her - from Glirdan and tgwbs, known baddies. The rest of the time, I kept saying I find her innocent - which is simply what I do - without defending or downplaying anything at all.

But seeing as I am that I'm suspecting two major forces in here I need to make a reservation for the common good. At least I will have to think this through once more. So please, don't you anyone make the nasty move Xyzzy made as he jumped on the first one he saw there was something up in the air against. Even though I suspect Roa somewhat, I really distaste the way Xyzzy voted for her.

If we have nothing better to go on this evening I might be again ready to vote for him as well.

You think Roa and I are lovers? What better thing do you need then? Vote one of us! You did the exact same thing you're doing now with your suspicion on tgwbs on Day One. xyzzy will be dealt with before the end, I'm convinced (and willing to take care of).

Btw: the votes are pretty spread already, so I would rather disencourage people to vote for xyzzy today.

C'mon my friend... Losing with actual arguments now are we?

Not at all. You made a nice and pretty side discussion and tried to downplay it by saying it's small. It would have downplayed your own involvement in it if the debate really came to being, and that is a suspicious way, to me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

One sideway (or maybe not?) thing at the beginning. As the lovers&co were mentioned here, I must say that more and more I get the feeling that there are not only some Lovers, but most likely we are a village of five Wolves, three Seers, four Lovers, one Mythomaniac and one Cultist. And maybe one Ranger as a bonus.

As I said earlier, I am probably not going after Lommy today, which brings me back to the suspects I had before, there was nothing which would sway my opinions in some drastic ways. Except for one person who moved to the "red line" for me.
I was waiting all the afternoon for Gil-Galad to post and now I am seriously considering to vote for him. Because something smells here. And please give me a confirmation that you see it as well and are just intentionally not posting about it, and tell me that I am "stupid newbie to even start about it, because this is a thing which is not to be debated publicly". Because otherwise I'd have to think you all overlooked it, or that I am just making up things (well, maybe I am).

Rikae, only to your thoughts of me not posting about Glirdan I can add that I mentioned him as much as Roa and you, because you all were in that "starting triangle" and it was quite probable there is at least one wolf among you, however, I could not tell who of you. I do not meddle in "mainstream discussions", because there are many people involved in them and I generally do not want to meddle in their debate unless I have any concern of supporting either of them. I generally rather watch from the outside and wait if someone of them slips or something like that. Because if I focused on that dispute mainly, it would deepen the concentration on this particular problem, which would help to make the village's view quite narrow. And this is not what we need.

[Macalaure]

Gil-Galad


#5 nothing

#31
Makes a good point about Lommy (a redundant statement from her)
Ties Lommy with Roa because of Lommy's defense of her (tied in good or evil)
I see his point on Lommy, though tying her with Roa is a stretch, I think. The comment on giftedness could be a slip - or not.

#38
Needs to vote: Lommy

#62
Returns to say if Lommy's a wolf then Roa and Six might be, too, or they're just confused and if she's innocent the other two also look that way.
This is a very vague statement, to be polite. But it's "If A is innocent, then B probably is, too" and not the trademark wolvish "If A is innocent, then B probably isn't"

----

#120 - his longest post ever
In the first part, he makes some fair points analysing the votes
Then it's not too clear to me how he comes from this to his suspect classification
His point on Six is bogus

What do you do with this. it starts really good and ends desastrous. However, I'm not sure whether it has been written with evil intent.

#122
He attacks Roa because she didn't like his point about Six. This really does look bad

#150
He still sees a connection between Roa and Lommy
tgwbs seems innocent to him (if no co-wolf is in danger, then a wolf might want to save a villager who causes distraction, or use him to get a defendable vote. But then, Gil usually isn't too eager about defendable votes. I (innocent) thought tgwbs innocent, too, at that time)
Votes Mith with reasons I don't share, but which I can understand somewhat

#156
He defends himself from Roa, quite offensely
Roa's accuse isn't that good in the first place, and though Gil's defense looks very weird, it seems genuine to me

#210
Says the votes are too spread and if tgwbs is a wolf, we will have to use ww-math

Huh?

----

#221 nothing

#233
Still suspicious of Mith. His reasons for it make no sense to me whatsoever

#254
He defends himself from Sixth, with fair points
Votes Mith because she bugs him
Will look at Roa and me if he survives (I'm not sure why he thinks he might be killed)


What can I say. Usually, this would have been enough to make me suspicious, but one has to use different measures when it comes to Gil (no offense ). There are some suspicious things, but also a lot which is very typical for Gil. He remains watchworthy for me, but isn't one of my, now two, top suspects.

PS: Whatever it is you saw, Legate, I must've missed it.

[Macalaure]

A quick look at the votes:

xyzzy -> Roa
Six -> Gil (Roa 1, Gil 1)
Roa -> Nogrod (Roa 1, Gil 1, Nogrod 1)
Gil -> Mith (Roa 1, Gil 1, Nogrod 1, Mith 1)


In a village of 10, 4 is enough I would say.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

PS: Whatever it is you saw, Legate, I must've missed it.

Okay, okay, maybe I am really making things up. Let's ignore that part, at least for now.

Nevertheless, concerning today's vote of mine:

I am not going for Six nor xyzzy - one looks innocent and the other is almost not posting (although as someone poined out, if we leave xyzzy around here like that, he can be a dangerous factor even if he's innocent, like a non-guarded dynamite patron).
I am not going for Rikae nor Mac.
I am not going for Roa though I could, but there is no evidence that I would call "solid".
Neither I am going for Mithalwen, last day she was more or less cleared for me.
And not Lommy, as I said, not today.
So this leaves me with Nogrod&Gil-Galad.

If Gil is a wolf, he'd be quite dangerous as "quiet wolf". His behavior seems strange (for Gil, as much as I know him, which is not much, but from what it seems to me...) and in some times, not logical. Sometimes not logical at all. I know it is typical for Gil to "chaotically pop up like jack-in-the-box", but sometimes...
His going after Mith is also quite ridiculous. For example this:

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

I've always tried to catch the whole "sneaking-under-the-radar" move for Wolfs... so hopefully i caught me one Lupine...

++Mithalwen

And also this:

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

my longest WW post...ever...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
time for my math to come in now...

Maybe this was meant as signal for the Mathematician Cobbler TGWBS? Only to ponder, perhaps my imagination is just too wild.

Nogrod then... Well, he says and does strange things still, nothing to dismiss my suspicions from start. I'll probably flip a coin, since I don't know if I could make anything sensible out of their (his&Gil's) posts.

[Macalaure]

Whatever you do, don't do it by flipping a coin.

[Mithalwen]

I have read through all the posts and am inclined to think:

Least suspicious

sixth wizard
Lommy
Roa

less suspicious/unsure

Rikae
Nogrod
Macalaure
Much more suspicious

Legate
xyzzy
Gil-galad


Xyzzy has done nothing to suggest any real level of interest in this game. I am sorry to harp on but I think the no kill suggests at least one disengaged wolf - and maybe onewho is victim of force majeure or not confident/experiencedenough to act alone.

I really don't like Legate's hanging around waiting to see which way the wind goes before making up his mind. And he has come to some funny decisions. Seems to me he could be a flying under the radar wolf.

Gil.....is making no sense. How the Angbandhe has the cheek to say I am out of character I don't know but being somewhat teed off isnot necessarily the best basis for a vote... however

I would be really surprised if there were not at least one wolf among these three,

Another little thing about Gil ...Glirdan had an attack of mentionitis before he attacked Roa in his first (?) post. He mentioned me, Brinniel and Gil. I am innocent, Brinniel was innocent, so that leaves me to wonder if Glirdan slipped one of his cohort in there as a "non-reference"

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nogrod then... Well, he says and does strange things still, nothing to dismiss my suspicions from start. I'll probably flip a coin, since I don't know if I could make anything sensible out of their (his&Gil's) posts.

Don't flip a coin and be ready to open your eyes. If for nothing else, remember what Roa said. I would never miss a kill as a wolf.

Well, if you decide to lynch me toDay or if the wolves kill me the next Night, please remember this then. I mean it was a bit odd how ready Rikae seemed to be to jump on me as she saw that there were some actual suspicions on me that existed (before that she had defended me slightly as to make me feel good about her?). In similar vein I'm a bit astonished how Roa's lead has taken Mac and now Legate with her. Well, she surely seems to have power to move minds.

Funny thing is that she can say these kinds of things and still people think her a genious:

Originally Posted by Roa

For example, Brinniel dismissed Lommy as a wolf, which looks very good for Lommy. However, Brinniel also promised to look more closely into Lommy and why she was being suspected toDay, had she been alive. This could A. be bad for Lommy, or B. be bad for the people who suspected Lommy. So they killed her to avoid this.

Wow!

(Yes, I do think most highly of Roa as a ww-player but in this game she has been something of a disappointment - no flashing arguments, no heavenly analysis, no nothing arpousing real awe for her capabilities - or maybe she's forced to do something she doesn't like, f.ex. being tied to someone as a lover?)


Anyhow. This is beginning to look like a madhouse. Possibly Menel's surprises are beginning to bite at last? So I'm the only normal villager around, eh?

Some interesting stuff to come, anyhow. Wait a second.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I really don't like Legate's hanging around waiting to see which way the wind goes before making up his mind.

And who would want to cast his vote without pondering as much as he could, if he knows only about himself that he is innocent, but of the others everyone can be a wolf swaying votes? But if you are referring to yesterday, then know ye that this was actually what eased my suspicions on you in the first place. At that time I didn't know you are innocent, of course. I was waiting till you post, since from your last page performance yesterday I got a lil bit confused and suspicious. So I wanted to see your vote not being influenced by mine - I didn't want you to be in the position where you just add your vote to an "already built house" of someone. I wanted to see for myself whom you would choose. And, unexpectedly, this made me think of you better.

EDIT: Seeing Nog's post here promising posting "interesting stuff", I decided to save the second part of my post for a while and not to cast my vote yet, though I am probably already decided (no, don't worry, it wasn't flipping a coin).

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(Yes, I do think most highly of Roa as a ww-player but in this game she has been something of a disappointment - no flashing arguments, no heavenly analysis, no nothing arpousing real awe for her capabilities - or maybe she's forced to do something she doesn't like, f.ex. being tied to someone as a lover?)

.

Or she is an Ordo.... which I suspect .... there are players who really excel when they have a special task and rise to the occasion but may be lacklustre as an ordo... I don't think Roa is a wolf but I don't think this kind of game where there are so many unknowns is her thing ... cf Fea's game...

[Nogrod]

This is a long one, but please read for your own sake.

It's done with a mind to seek for problems. Deliberately. My wild idea that Mac and Roa are lovers made me try this. I'm not sure if that's the case anymore. It might be, though. But there's clearly something wrong with Mac.

It's only Day1 and 2. But looking at the clock made me stop right here. I've said a lot of Mac's posting toDay already.



Macanalysis (in the style of Devil’s advocate)

Day1

#16 Reasonable first post. Reminds us of those who would love to speculate on roles: we should beware those. The only one who arises suspicion that far is Glirdy.

Funnily it’s Roa who had thus far spoken most about the roles. Still there is no mention of Roa in the post. And at that point there clearly was none other who looked downright suspicious but Glirdan. Had he not said that Glirdy looked suspicious he would have been asked afterwards why didn’t he. So he was forced to do that.

#29 He says he doesn’t want to defend Roa but that he doesn’t see anything suspicious in her. Encourages talking with saying there are more stupid wolves around one might think. Says not happy to vote The Sixth as it’s his first game.

So in his first post he says speculating about roles is suspicious, in his second he says Roa (the main discusser of roles) isn’t suspicious at all... Also the point about stupid wolves is interesting. Maybe he was frustrated with the way Glirdy had played? Speaking on behalf of The Sixth is nice and good. Any good wolf takes care to have some nice air around him.

#32 Answers tgwbs that he dislikes people who downplay Day1’s.

#51 Makes points against tgwbs and says he will probably be voting for him. Says the only other one he has found suspicious is Glirdy but that he “would rather hear of him tomorrow”.

Now one main issue here was that tgwbs had suspected Roa and Mac didn’t obviously like it. Also were hew a wolf, he knew not that tgwbs was the cobbler. So a dangerous one on the right tracks and thence he needed to get rid of him. Nice wording also in defence of Glirdy, a known wolf...

#55 Points to the possibility that Xyzzy hasn’t probably noticed the game has started yet. Opposes lynching him at the moment.

Mr. Nice-guy again. But note also: The wolves won’t kill the quiet ones, so persuading the villagers not to do that either is sound wolf-tactics. The more silent-ones there are in the end, the better for the wolves.

#70 For lack of any new ideas he produces a vote-count.

#75 Says he is suspicious “to some degree only” of tgwbs and Glirdy, but as lynching Glirdy on Day1 has “seldomly been a good idea” he votes for tgwbs. Says he has the feeling nothing’s gonna happen in the last half an hour so he might as well cast his vote and avoid the last-minute frenzy.

Nice way of ducking the Glirdy-vote again (even though I agree with him on this). If he was a wolf / lover with Roa, his vote for tgwbs is most understandable. The way he detaches himself from the last action is more interesting though. He washed his hands from all speculation that was going on and just voted and said he’d leave. Now any decent innocent would like to get all the information possible, discuss ideas with others etc. He didn’t. He had made his mind and went with it. Now who does this if not wolves? They have no problems or insecurities about things. They can just vote and leave comfortably as they know things.

#78 Agrees with me that tgwbs is not a gifted because of his playing style. Makes a joking reminder of a certain Rangrod.

Nice way to clean his reputation when tgwbs turns out innocent – or if he would actually turn out a gifted. A possibility a wolf should not miss if he thinks of his situation the next Day!

#92 Admits he tried to cause a bandwaggon on tgwbs but notes it backfired. Says he won’t care whether he’s suspected or not. Disencourages everyone from voting Lommy.

With his admission he probably is honest. Not caring about being suspected. Don’t make me laugh! Of course we all care of it. Everyone. But why to state that? To look innocent?

#99 Asks Brinn why she voted for Roa at that time.

Day2

#111 Analyses the votes and takes a closer look of a few suspects. Ends up suspecting Lommy and Brinniel the most. Somewhat clears The Sixth, Roa, Mith, Legate, Rikae, Nogrod. Of Lommy he says the vote she made was the only possible for her werre she innocent or a wolf. Suspects Brinn of defending Glirdy and Lommy and criticises her vote on Roa – thinks she should have voted tgwbs instead.

Interesting that Lommy earns her top suspicion even as he says that voting Glirdy was her “only real option”. So how come you suspect someone who does the only reasonable thing there is? We know Brinn is innocent so that’s for it.

#137 Wonders why I thought his point about tgwbs’s voting a good one. Releases Brinn because of her explanations. Praises Roa’s analysis on me (*bows* even). Analyses my voting situations from the point of view I’m a wolf. Ends that up by stating he’s puzzled. Suspects Lommy because she said we’re doing fine.

I answered the first point already in the thread. Praising Roa’s analysis is a mark of either a poor judgement (Macalaure has a good judgement) or intentional malvolence. Tries to add on to Roa’s points with continuing the suspicion Roa threw over me. The end-product: surely he’s puzzled as I’m no wolf – and he had no ingenuinity enough to paint my posting black.

#157 Tries “a new approach” and lists whom he thinks are innocent and then goes for those who are left. Innocents will be: Brinn, Legate, Mith, Sixth. Very probably innocents are: Rikae, Roa, tgwbs. Unsures are Gil and Xyzzy. That leaves myself and Lommy to be suspected. Of me he says it looks good form one angle and bad from the other. He suspects Lommy in earnest. Defends his tgwbs bandwaggon-idea from Day1 once more.

Interesting how Brinn got so fast the clean papers – and tgwbs, the known cobbler as well! Roa stays safely on the probably innocents –group. Clearly he has nothing against me (From one angle I’m innocent from another not – please... anyone could say that from anyone. So why to say it? Because you want to keep me along the suspicious ones? And why is that? Because you know I’m innocent and you’re not?). Also ot’s interesting how sure he becomes with his suspicion of Lommy. With no actual points added she has raised from somewhat suspicious to his first candidate...

#163 Makes analysis of the posting of Lommy from Day2. She does not cry a wolf but isn’t too innopcent looking either. Downplays her case against Lommy a little but says she doesn’t have better ones either. Wonders what rivalling bandwagons would appear to match the three votes for Lommy coming.

Funny how he can make an analysis and end up in saying there’s nothing overtly suspicious there but still retain his posturte that she’s the number one suspect! No innocent would do that!

#166 Makes the suggestion we have a cursed villager among us.

#177 Defends his last post to Legate. Says he meant the discussion between Roa and tgwbs while answering to Mith. Says Roa is right in here bewcause it’s possible she’s right.

This all left me a bit puzzled. What was this all about? And why bother to underline that Roa is right if something is possible? And why was he inventing / speculating with this in the first place as he seems to be very eager to suspect others from discussing different roles. So what did he achieve by this? It was all too clear that the no-kill was due to the wolves missing their posting to Menel, so why on earth these two posts?

#180 Speaking of who would have missed the kill is a low-level werewolf.

Reaching for the moral high-ground after a personal blunder?

#187 Votes for Lommy to stop waiting.

Nice. No further reasons given and the previous reasons are somewhat lacking as well. And safely early vote enough not to entangle himself woth the hard decisions of the last minutes. Nice and clean again. Detached I would say once more. Wolvish.

#191 Asks if he could persuade anyone to vote for Lommy with him.

#196 Answering why he voted Lommy. Day1 she voted for Glirdy but disencouraged others to do it. On Day2 a general aura of dishonesty, refers to his analysis on Lommy.

Interesting again. He had already himself said that Lommy had no other choice on Day1. Many of us didn’t like the idea of voting Glirdy on Day1 as it has been done many times and it has always ended up badly. So Lommy was no different here from many others. Of Day2 he himself first said that it didn’t cry a wolf but didn’t look too innocent either. Now he says there is a general aura of dishonesty. So what changed? Lommy didn’t post in between these posts on Mac. So he’s in contradiction with his own analysis here?

#202 makes a vote count-up. Reminds that it looks familiar.

#208 Speculates about the last votes. If Legate votes Lommy it’s for Rikae to decide. Edits with *shakes head*

-----
Some more general points to follow...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And who would want to cast his vote without pondering as much as he could, if he knows only about himself that he is innocent, but of the others everyone can be a wolf swaying votes? But if you are referring to yesterday, then know ye that this was actually what eased my suspicions on you in the first place. At that time I didn't know you are innocent, of course. I was waiting till you post, since from your last page performance yesterday I got a lil bit confused and suspicious. So I wanted to see your vote not being influenced by mine - I didn't want you to be in the position where you just add your vote to an "already built house" of someone. I wanted to see for myself whom you would choose. And, unexpectedly, this made me think of you better.

Yes but there was Day One too...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Yes but there was Day One too...

Day One what? We spent all the evening speculating about whether to lynch or not lynch xyzzy, I didn't even know when the deadline is until it was about quarter an hour before it, and I posted right after your vote back then, so I think you also are not the right person to tell us about early votings.

[Mithalwen]

However I really think that Gil or Xyzzy is the way to go .... and I have only a few minutes to decide because I am yawning and have half an hour's drive ahead of me... thanks for movingthat deadline

[Macalaure]

Impressive summanalysis, Nogrod. Considering the time, I will comment on it tomorrow, if we both stay alive.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Day One what? We spent all the evening speculating about whether to lynch or not lynch xyzzy, I didn't even know when the deadline is until it was about quarter an hour before it, and I posted right after your vote back then, so I think you also are not the right person to tell us about early votings.

Didn't you vote Lommy and then say oh what about Xyzzy when it was too late ..I voted latish but I was carrying out stated intentions.... and now we still have the same Xyzzy problem..... and it was really the vote for Lommy which makes me uneasy...... I just don't get her being sus on day 1..

Gil or Xyzzy...... Xyzzy freaks me out and I can't decide if gil is merely relentlessy beating the wrong drum or a wolf trying to set me up..... finding it hardot be objective on this...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whatever, I am not doing this last-minute today, mainly because it's really late. So here is my vote, finally.

++Gil-Galad

I bear in mind what you said, Nogrod, so you might consider yourself lucky to slip from my grip once more.
I have no time now, and I am quite tired, so I can't add anything to your "lovers" specilation, though it is certainly somewhat worth pondering, at least from my current view. Tomorrow, hopefully.

One last thing. If Gil is lynched and proven innocent and I'll be dead tomorrow morning, then my deductions were all wrong and in that case, go after Mith.

[Nogrod]

I was afraid that Mac's sudden changes of view were because he was the seer. But now I see he changes his course mainly in the middle of the Day.

So?

Normally the lovers get to discuss one another during the Day so that would fit nicely. Roa (? - or someone) told him what to do and he obeyed? Or they discussed about good tactics anyhow...

It's kind of revealing that in his first post on Day2 he thinks I'm somewhat clear and after that he changes totally and starts slowly increasing the pressure with me during the same Day (alongside Roa, I must add). So no seer he is.

To me he looks like a lover and with him we will get the other one too. The one is innocent and the other is a wolf. A fair deal for us, I think.

EDIT: X'd with Mith onwards...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Didn't you vote Lommy and then say oh what about Xyzzy when it was too late ..I voted latish but I was carrying out stated intentions.... and now we still have the same Xyzzy problem..... and it was really the vote for Lommy which makes me uneasy...... I just don't get her being sus on day 1..

I didn't say "oh what about xyzzy", I said "if you told me earlier, I could have voted for xyzzy". Because at one point, Nogrod said that he's not going after xyzzy, so I dropped that possibility and voted for Lommy. She was the other suspect and still is, for me. I only decided not to vote for her today (cf. my above posts). That Nogrod suddenly started speaking about xyzzy was a 180° turn for me, quite unexpectedly.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is to be a Xyzzy vote, I might consider joining it as the other possibilities look quite problematic.

He said that at the moment I was posting my vote (we crossed). This is what I was referring to: had he posted that before, I might have reconsidered and all three of us might have voted xyzzy. That's about all about the past.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

W

One last thing. If Gil is lynched and proven innocent and I'll be dead tomorrow morning, then my deductions were all wrong and in that case, go after Mith.

Am I bovvered? Am I bovvered though? Face, bovvered? Look, I ain't bovvered!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I didn't say "oh what about xyzzy", I said "if you told me earlier, I could have voted for xyzzy". Because at one point, Nogrod said that he's not going after xyzzy, ......He said that at the moment I was posting my vote (we crossed). This is what I was referring to: had he posted that before, I might have reconsidered and all three of us might have voted xyzzy. That's about all about the past.

I see.....

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To me he looks like a lover and with him we will get the other one too. The one is innocent and the other is a wolf. A fair deal for us, I think.

EDIT: X'd with Mith onwards...

I did wonder if Mac might be the seer too because he seemed very confident of my innocent in one post on Day 2 I think. Now I know I am innocent but only the wolves or a seer or a successful ranger can be confident of others innocence.
Now I don't know why Brinniel and gil were quite so suspicious of me but lack of suspicion is also interesting....

[Macalaure]

I see Nogrod's last comment as an attempt to make the ranger (if we have one) protect somebody else but me, in order to kill the seer without being rejected by him/her.

I therefore see no other possibility than to tell the truth.


I am the Seer.


I don't know for certain whether Nogrod is evil or not.

I know Lommy is evil.


If Nogrod is innocent, then shame on the both of us. You for discussing giftedness openly, me for being very, very stupid.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Am I bovvered? Am I bovvered though? Face, bovvered? Look, I ain't bovvered!

Well, if such a situation happens that Gil is lynched and innocent and I am alive tomorrow, I'll see to it personally and explain everything. Oh, for everyone, this point about Mith I had in mind even before our debate here started, so the evidence is not streaming from anything that happened here now, it concerns all the previous day.
The point is, in general, if Gil is not a wolf, then Mith probably is. If Gil is a wolf, however, Mith probably isn't.