Werewolf XXXI: The Unknown Enemies

[the guy who be short]

I suppose Legate is right in this. Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

This gives me 5 minutes to vote. I'm still not happy with Rikae misrepresenting me, but my accusation of Lommy stands. Will probably vote for her.

[the guy who be short]

++LOMMY

Fare well and vote wisely.

[Mithalwen]

With the usual caveat that you can never discount Roa as a wolf (and I am sure she would be insulted if we did), her post, at an early and extremely quiet phase, reminded me rather of my ill fated first post in my last game where with the absence of anything to discuss I stated the somewhat obvious as what I believe Americans call a "heads up". Two of the people who jumped down my throat for my innocent comments turned out to be wolves.

I really can't imagine what else there was to say at that point ..especially if you are not into the rpg side ...in fact had timezones been different I might have said similar things. Unless Roa is one of them the wolves would be delighted to get her lynched today so unless I see some evidence a heck of a lot stronger that "helpful without being so" I shall look more suspiciously at her accusers.

Yes seeming to be helpful can be an indicator but it more often applies to "empty analyses" - reporting the deeds of others without applying any insight or drawing conclusions.... Day 2 or 3 stuff.

[Nogrod]

Back then... Just a general point to begin with.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

All that first post (=Roa's) has caused is unnecessary speculation; I and others have been forced to reply to it and carry on with this useless role-speculation.

First post does not cause a flood but those who continue it. I can't see all the stuff talked here around Roa's post being only forced replies... But it has provoked interesting reactions to be sure. So it might turn out useful, not perhaps toDay but later in the game.

[Mithalwen]

Yay I am not alone!!!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Yay I am not alone!!!

No you aren't!

The votes and the outspoken reasons for them so far. I’ll come up with a word or two with them in a minute...


Lommy ++ Glirdan

Yes, Glirdan seems quite taking Rikae's point - which was not an accusation in my opinion - and turning it to an accusation while trying to make it seem that Rikae's with him there... Looks quite bad............
I'm going to vote him because he simply seems clearly the most suspicious of those who have posted this far.

Sixth Wizard ++ Glirdan

I can assure you I'm not doing such a thing to confuse you, unlike Glirdan, who may well be a bad guy.

Glirdan ++ Sixth

Voting for me on the pure fact that a few people are suspicious of me and that he agrees I'm suspicious. Alright and dandy. But no explanation as to why I'm suspicious? That worries me. Sure it's a Day1, but if you yourself are suspicious of someone, at least explain what you're suspicious of and not just say "Oh everyone else is suspicious and so am I." To me, that looks bad.

Roa ++ tgwbs

For someone who thinks talking about gifteds is unhelpful, that's aboutall his posts have been. And that, for you people who think Day 1's are useless, is a contradiction.

Gil-Galad ++ Lommy

but i got a little itch from Lommy's post... she just came right out and tried to defend Roa... could be a virtuous villager, but everyone should know that if they are an ordinary, they are on their own ......... so that makes me inclined to think that either Roa and thin are wolves... or our gifted...

tgwbs ++ Lommy

I am suspicious of Thinlomien for a number of factors. Observe-ye:
1.

I disagree. Talking about gifteds and all that this early is in no way helpful. They can also work things out for themselves. That Roa-post looks like it was trying to be helpful, but wasn't saying much that was helpful to the village.
2. Her accusations and vote for Glirdan. Seems to be on very shoddy evidence to me.
3.

Isn't that what Roa, who she defends, was doing?
4. Tradition!

So all in all that makes:
Glirdan 2
Lommy 2
The Sixth 1
Tgwbs 1

6/13 have voted.
1/13 has not been seen yet.

[Mithalwen]

The last being Xyzzy who hasn't checked in for several days. Has Menel given a policy on no shows? Is it very cynical of me to suggest that we might do worse than to preempt it? No offence to Xyzzy who probably doesn't know the game has started yet but I am not very so persuaded of the guilt of those who have been voted for so far.

Glirdan seemed off ..but sometimes people genuinely get the wrong head of the stick, Sixth just seems to be cutting her teeth, Lommy ... I need ot have a look but didn't raise any hackles and TGWBS.... well I disagree with him but that doesn't necessarily mean he is guilty ... I disagree with Rikae too but she is not in the frame and I am not sure it is helpful to widen the field too much at this point. If a alterantive is needed I would rather remove a non combattant....

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am back and I must say I spent a lot of time thinking about who these wolves might be. However optimistic I would like to be, I ended up being very pesimistic about the possibility we catch a wolf today. But as I said earlier, this does not mean giving it up, I am merely stating facts based on probability. Many images of a werewolf came through my mind. First it seemed it's Rikae in bright lycra suit, then it's a sort of small penguin-gal, then it must be a pack of dirty little wizards; or maybe it's all the lot together.

One of the other persons is Nogrod. He might be honest, though... there are several things which seem really alarming to me. He seemed playing too much of a "goodie" to me in his first post. And later then, I am naturally suspicious of people who make summaries. I didn't say that in the last game, because all my colleagues did that at that time But that's fact: a werewolf does best to make summaries for himself, so it does not take much effort from him to post them to others.

And Brinn. If I were a Wolf and were her (=person first time in a wolf role), I wouldn't probably do much until the end, which is exactly what she does. Though someone said here that accusing someone because of posting nothing-containing posts is silly now, I'd still want to point it out. She did it. Just to bring it to attention, if nothing else. Also, Nogrod seems to quite easily merge her with the other people who posted more, while I think that Brinniel didn't say that much, actually. This is exactly what the other wolves did to me when I was a wolf - putting me in one sack with other innocents, so that no one noticed.

That's what I had to share. Ponder it or not, agree with it or not, speak to it or not (but rather speak than not). I have spoken.

[Nogrod]

Lommy: Voted for the one that was clearly (to my mind at least) the most suspicious-looking at the time of her vote. Were she a wolf she would admittedly have brains to do the same. But lynching on Day1 a player who could be of a big help later just because of that is IMHO very short-sighted. Proposing that is almost lupine.

The Sixth: Clinged to Lommy's vote immediately with not the grandest of outspoken reasons (Lommy at least stated her reasons for suspecting Glirdy) but also he had to go then. It's hard to blame him on that either at this point I would say.

Glirdan: I don't like "retaliatory" voting at all and think it's a safe position to the wolves to hide as many tend to "understand" that kind of thing. But in the end - thinking of the cause of the villagers - it's pretty counter-productive as a villager should only try to get the wolves, not to retaliate. Every vote counts. But it's Day1 and some people do not believe we can do something with them and blah-blah... But I'm pretty uncomfortable with lynching Glirdy as it seems always turn out to be a lynching of an innocent who just looks suspicious and weakens our chances. Must think about this still.

Roa: Gives a reason to her vote which basically is not the one I think makes tgwbs look a bit suspicious. But unless there is more to be laid against her I would not vote for her toDay. The same as it is with Lommy: I wouldn't like to see a great asset go on Day1 with basically non-existant reasons.

Gil: He is a disturbing one. He states a reason, sure, but the open speculation about gifteds in that spot really confuses me. Then again I don't think a wolf-Gil would do that. And like with Glirdy, a lynched Gil normally turns out an innocent... This also makes me wonder about Roa a bit as she threw some suspicions into Gil's direction because of his gifted-speculation... a villager rarely throws suspicions against those who will not be there to answer for themselves if they are not pretty confident about their case. Maybe I should rethink about Roa still?

tgwbs: This I find somewhat suspicious or at least unnerving. He had time to play and took actively part in it but then decided to go for his first suspicion (quite weakly built case - and if one thinks of it - not an obvious choise of an innocent villager). Sad to say, but in the last game he was voting in a similar-feeling detached manner. I suspected him of that then and he turned out to be a wolf. It would be luck indeed if he were to be a wolf in two games in a row but not impossible. Still I'm a bit unhappy with voting him as the same that goes for Lommy and Roa applies to him too. I wouldn't like to lose an innocent tgwbs on Day1.

So what to say? This seems to have made me more unsure about everything...

There are still some people who have been quiet enough even though they have posted...

[Mithalwen]

Yes that is possible ... but what I meant is that ther has been so little activity and so many variables, that it is hard to post something substantial. Ordos know nothing - as someone pointed out - we are on out own. It leaves little but speculation and hypothesis based on previous villages which withthe best will in the world tends to be subjective.

It is dangerous to assume that becasue someone has a different style to us that they are guilty asn easy to be lulled into a false sense of security by someone who seems to think the same way as us.

Not that that helps.. we have very little time now...

[Macalaure]

The way it looks right now, I think I will end up voting for tgwbs. The only other person to wave a flag is Glirdan, but I would rather hear of him tomorrow.


tgwbs:

He starts with suspecting Lommy for thinking Roa unsuspicious, and her reasons for this. He says Roa's post was trying to look helpful without being helpful. I don't see how he got that particular idea. It maybe wouldn't be so suspicious to me if it wasn't so widely common to throw suspicions onto someone saying "he's trying to look helpful without being helpful", just like Glirdan's claim Roa is "inconsistent". It's not that he is suspicious of Roa (everybody should), but the way he expressed it.

Then he argues with Mith about if and how gifted should reveal their roles (without being forced to!). He criticises my point about stupid wolves, which was in a surprisingly aggressive manner for such a minor thing.

Later he defends himself against Rikae, again going into details about gifteds.

He defends himself against Roa, who had voted for him. The line Nogrod quoted already indeed looks interesting. If he feels forced to be speculating about roles, then why does he? He didn't have to, at least not to that extent.

He votes Lommy.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Roa and I are both known for loudmouths, and loudmouths have a thing for calling attention to themselves and getting lynched for no reason.

This one worries me greatly. It sounds like he's downplaying what he had said this Day to just being a loudmouth and calling attention to himself. It seems like it's meant to suggest we shouldn't look at his words in detail because it's all just volume.

edit: crossed with mith and nogrod

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Not that that helps.. we have very little time now...

We do have an hour and a half I presume? With daylight savings GMT is not the same as English time, remember? Or then I'm totally wrong and we are in a hurry.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We do have an hour and a half I presume? With daylight savings GMT is not the same as English time, remember? Or then I'm totally wrong and we are in a hurry.

I don't know I get confused....

Sorry I didn't realise the Downs had adjusted for daylight saving here ... and I have no watch and teh computer says 4am ...
I think we have the extra hour though what it will avail...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The last being Xyzzy who hasn't checked in for several days. Has Menel given a policy on no shows? Is it very cynical of me to suggest that we might do worse than to preempt it? No offence to Xyzzy who probably doesn't know the game has started yet but I am not very so persuaded of the guilt of those who have been voted for so far.

I need to read more of tgwbs now and also look if I can spot anything else of interest from the thread so far. But that is not totally cynical to my view either. If we have no good "case" on anyone we still have the mathematical probability's worth chance with Xyzzy and if s/he is not going to even log in then s/he's just a dead load whom the wolves won't touch in any case and s/he might be a wolf too... 3/13 chance, or something... as we don't know the exact situation)

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

But how many of us is going to be here around the deadline? And surely if Xyzzy appears the situation is different.

[Macalaure]

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice. We can still consider lynching him on Day Two.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think that Brinniel didn't say that much

I didn't say much in my first post honestly because I didn't have much to say. I'm always puzzled on what exactly to write at the beginning of Day One, and it's a bit difficult to make analysis when there's few posts.

Only an hour and a half until deadline and I'm still not sure who to vote for. From my experience in the last game, the wolves often turn out to be the least suspicious ones on Day One. Of course, this is a different game, with different wolves, and a different situation. But I will still keep that thought in mind...

Anyways, I'm pretty certain on the people I will NOT be voting for:

Glirdan: Yes, his behaviour earlier was a bit odd, but too often the ones who seem so obviously suspicious turn out to be innocent. I don't think we should be too quick to vote for him, not this early in the game.

The Sixth Wizard: His decision to bandwagon with Lommy's vote was a bit strange, but I do not think that his a reason to vote for him toDay. After all, he had no choice but to vote early due to time zone issues, and there was still very little to go off of at that hour. Plus, he is a newbie to this...and I know I would hate to be lynched on Day One of my first game. Besides...I'd like to hear more from him before becoming too suspicious.

Lommy: While she could easily be a wolf, it is too early in the game to tell. Like Sixth, she had to vote early on for a reasonable explanation, so I can't really judge her based on her vote selection. I would still like to hear more from her in the upcoming Days, and hopefully, she'll be able to stick around longer.

With that said, I will begin examining those who are not on the list above and look for any suspicious behaviour that will help me make my voting decision.

And as mentioned, xyzzy still has not shown up...and it appears he has not been active since Saturday. A bit of a disappointment since I was interested in hearing from him. Hopefully he'll show up sometime between now and the deadline..

EDIT: X-ed after Legate's last post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if it looks like pure random or very improbable in the end we should perhaps consider Xyzzy?

Well, I would say this is not nice if xyzzy plans to show yet - maybe he has some troubles we don't know about... but from the typical Orcish point of view, "why not, he's a dead meat." But seriously: if he does not show in the game at all, then it's 100% sure thing not killing a participating innocent and something around the 3/13 chance of killing a Wolf, as Nogrod said... well, unless someone is trying to save his neck here by putting in an already dead substitute , I think this is a thing to ponder. If we only knew if he's coming back... this way it's maybe too rough.

[Mithalwen]

I know it is not "nice" and that it is cynical and if htey had logged on more recently I wouldn't have suggested it but I will seriously consider doing so if I don't become more certain of the guilt of the current votees .. I would rather vote for Xzzy for not being here than Sixth for being here but perhaps being a bit green and in a different timesone ot everyone else. And it is a common wolf tactic to kill the quietest person on Night one ot leave no clues...

It isn't ideal -especially as we could end up killing a gifted as easily as a wolf.

Without dissing the wolves of my last game - teh villagesrs were hog-tied by ordo drop-outs ... it is in that context I am suggesting this ruthlessly pragmatic course.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It seems like Xyzzy hasn't realised that the game has started. Lynching newbies on Day One is not nice. We can still consider lynching him on Day Two.

You're right. But if we wait for him to Day2, then why not to Day3 and surely we have at least something against someone else... The "real quiets" become more and more dangerous every Day that goes by. So a Day1 is the easiest place.

But I'll welcome any better solutions. I've eyed through tgwbs "shortly" and am a bit puzzled still. He speaks sense oftentimes but makes also points and acts (votes) in a lupine way too... and the overall feeling I get from him is more of the malvolent one than an innocent one. But the last is just gut-feelings.

Let's hope Brinniel comes back as she has said almost nothing toDay. And yes Legate, I thought she made sense early on the Day - and during that time she had not posted any less "substantially" than anyone else. But now I am getting a bit worried as she promised to be back. But I also wonder your ends as the point you make about it looks pretty trivial and most of all ill-construed.

And where's Rikae?

EDIT: X'd with Brinniel onwards...

[Mithalwen]

I feel moreuneasy about Glirdan and TGWBS than Lommy and Sixth. Rikae makes my uneasy but gah.....

Do I feel strongly enough about them to vote?

Or do I make the unkindest cut ....

Nogrod may be right ..... I wish we knew Menel's stance on no shows...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If we only knew if he's (Xyzzy) coming back... this way it's maybe too rough.

That's the problem. And I think Mith also pointed it out. If he's not coming we should lynch him and take our chances, if he is, that is a bit rough as you say.

But a better possibility is of course to find a wolf who has been around toDay... An hour to do it.

[Gil-Galad]

wow i did make deadline...


well here is my math

if lommy = wolf

then roa and sixth may = wolves or confused villagers

but if lommy is innocent then sixth and roa may have some light to their innocent

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I didn't say much in my first post honestly because I didn't have much to say. I'm always puzzled on what exactly to write at the beginning of Day One, and it's a bit difficult to make analysis when there's few posts.

Ai, this reaction quite eased my suspections on you. I might say this is what my ears wanted to hear. Alright, I'll leave it for now.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

It isn't ideal -especially as we could end up killing a gifted as easily as a wolf.

Assuming xyzzy is not a Gifted himself

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This one worries me greatly. It sounds like he's downplaying what he had said this Day to just being a loudmouth and calling attention to himself. It seems like it's meant to suggest we shouldn't look at his words in detail because it's all just volume.

You think so? Well, I thought about it when tgwbs took my intervention quite well that he maybe adopted this idea too quickly - but on the other hand, something really seemed honest on all of this. So if for something, I wouldn't suspect him for that.

EDIT: X-ed with all except Mith from my last post.

[Mithalwen]

I fear that given his location and age he may well be in school til the deadline. And as a experienced RL WWgamer I don't htink he'd take it personally... I don't like this but it may be the best ..unless we are certain of Glirdan or TGWBS..andI can't hand on heart say I am....

[Mithalwen]

Legate ..that was I was saying! Nogrod said that Xzzy might be a wolf and I was saying yes but he might be a gifted..thoug if he is he may not be being so useful...

[Brinniel]

Well, thanks to Who's Online, I've noticed xyzzy seem to come online consistently every few days, so I do think he will return. The question is.. when? I did take notice that it was his birthday yesterday...so possibly that could be a reason he has not shown up. I'm not sure...

Anyways, I don't intend on voting for him. I do not like to vote for people who have not had the chance to speak. Let us wait and see if he shows up toMorrow, and then we can come up with a decision.

EDIT: X-ed with Legate on

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's what I think.

Gil-Galad & Glirdan both post normally just a little and look more than suspicious. It’s like flipping a coin with them...

The Sixth Wizard a first-timer who has been in the game. I wouldn’t like to vote for him.

Roa_Aoife & Thinlómien might play the way they do were they wolves but with this evidence I wouldn’t like to risk voting them.

Macalaure & Mithalwen I’m feeling somewhat well right now. It doesn’t mean I will declare them innocents, no way, but I have no wish to lynch them on Day1 with non-existant reasons.

Brinniel: She looked sensible as she returned. I have no reason to suspect her any more than other up above.

That leaves:

Rikae & Legate of Amon Lanc: I have some slight suspicions on the gut-level. I’m sorry I may not have time toDay to word them out but I try if I have time.

the guy who be short: I am a bit worried about... but not sure if I'm ready to help lynch him. He could be a good one on our side.

Xyzzy: well, we’ve discussed this already...


I am quite sure that at least one wolf dwells in that upper portion of my list, most probably two. But... as the Day has not been the most produvctive I've seen, I'd like to go for someone from the "downstairs", or then Gil or Glirdy to make a blind try...

[Mithalwen]

Brinniel - As the only North American here now - do you know if he is likely to be on school vacation now? UK kids are.....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Well, thanks to Who's Online, I've noticed xyzzy seem to come online consistently every few days, so I do think he will return. The question is.. when? I did take notice that it was his birthday yesterday...so possibly that could be a reason he has not shown up. I'm not sure...

Good that you checked it. I'm beginning to think too that we might do wise to wait for another Day with him. When Mith said he had been online on Saturday the last time I was beginning to think he might not appear... But that makes our choice even harder toDay...

[Macalaure]

Lacking any new ideas, let's have a look at the vote count.

Lommy -> Glirdan
Sixth -> Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Sixth (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1)
Roa -> tgwbs (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)
Gil -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1, Lommy 1)
tgwbs -> Lommy (Glirdan 2, Lommy 2, Sixth 1, tgwbs 1)


Left: Brinniel, Nogrod, Mith, Legate, Rikae, me and, of course, Xyzzy.

[Nogrod]

Please people, don't shy away with your opinions! Only the wolves would love to hang around and check how the villagers go forwards to the last minute frenzy...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

well here is my math

if lommy = wolf

then roa and sixth may = wolves or confused villagers

Interesting, I thought about this as well. I like that, bandito! Seems living in the wild was good to yer brains. Yer brains is similar to mine.* That's one reason why I pondered Lommy at the start. If we don't choose xyzzy, apart from Nogrod (who still seems somewhat... wolfish is the word - to me), she is the other option...

*Everyone might ponder whether uruk brains ís to be relied on.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Legate ..that was I was saying! Nogrod said that Xzzy might be a wolf and I was saying yes but he might be a gifted..thoug if he is he may not be being so useful...

Oh, sorry, I didn't catch. I must say I generally have the most trouble with your posts, I generally have to read them all at least twice. Don't know for what it is, some elvish plot or other.

So... to make matters clear... what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

EDIT: x-ed with all from Nogrod's post after Brinniel's down...

[Mithalwen]

I thinkI have been quite honest.

I feel uneasy about TGWBS but fear that sensitivity about "gifted talk" might be the mark of a gifted rather than a wolf.

I know I will be thought a hard hearted witch for this but I think I am still seriouly considering going for Xzzy..... sad becasue he is so enthusiastic but we don't have the luxury of numbers to be too nice....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

So... to make matters clear... what do you think about xyzzy? Is there a possibility to vote for him, or are we leaving this out? I am for that if nothing, it would not harm the village - probably. But if someone else, then someone else... just to know who to vote for.

Seven votes to cast - probably six as Xyzzy is one of them - and the leaders in votes have two each... Everything is possible.

[Macalaure]

The two I'm suspicious of to some degree at the moment are only tgwbs and Glirdan. Lynching Glirdan on Day One has seldomly been a good idea, so I would prefer tgwbs.

++ the guy who be short

I don't get the feeling anything is going to happen in the last half hour to change my mind. Better to start the voting frenzy now than with only 10 minutes to go.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I feel uneasy about TGWBS but fear that sensitivity about "gifted talk" might be the mark of a gifted rather than a wolf.

Here I must disagree. A gifted would not show that sensitivity, he would just ignore the talk and stay out of the discussion...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Brinniel - As the only North American here now - do you know if he is likely to be on school vacation now? UK kids are.....

Well, spring break in the US varies in each city. Looking at his age I'd say he's a freshman...which can be either junior high or high school. Amazing at what one can do on the internet though...I just checked the Ozark High School website and their spring break was a few weeks back. Of course, even though he is from Ozark, that does not necessarily mean he goes to that school. From what it looks like, he is currently at school (is Missouri in EST or CST? I'm not sure..), but I could be completely off on this.

I think it would be a waste of toDay to vote xyzzy, when we can vote for someone who is actually suspicious. I plan to give him at least another Day to show up and I ask that everyone else does the same.

Ack..I'm running out of time to make a decision. I still want to analyze Roa and Gil. Another post coming...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Here I must disagree. A gifted would not show that sensitivity, he would just ignore the talk and stay out of the discussion...

Exactly. (though I remember a certain Rangrod from Valier's last game who did act similar )

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, from what Menel said on the admin thread, it seems that it's up to us whether to lynch or not xyzzy. For this, I'd maybe reconsider and wait. Reversing Nogrod's theory, he's 10/13 an ordo, so even if he does not do anything, he is still an ordo to count against the wolf numbers. If he were a wolf though, it would be very, very, very nasty to have him around, even lynch all the wolves and then kill each other without even thinking about him. Very scary.

Wait, will read if someone has posted now and then probably cast my vote...

[Mithalwen]

Oh I thought Mo was Montana and mountains.... gah...