Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

How strong is that feeling?

I have no certainty, but it is fairly strong as he seems to be in much the same position as me and I can therefore identify with the way that he has behaved.

But you know where my conclusions have got me so far ...

If you feel that strongly yourself, vote for him. Depending on where the Wolves are, it might make for an interesting end to the day's voting.

I must go now.

[malkatoj]

I'd like to thank SpM for defending Morm. He (Mormegil) really doesn't seem wolfish, and I don't quite understand why you all think he does. If anyone would like to try to convince me of his wolfishness, feel free to try in the hour we have left. Also, SpM, that post lowered you on my 'suspicious' list, simply because I believe Morm to be innocent. Thought I'd let you know.

On the other hand--Naria. Oh, Naria. You were completely under my radar until this list:

Morm--unsure of right now
Garin-- not too many thoughts right now just that he seems to be quite agreeable this game, maybe a new way of playing?
Nilp--starting to make sense. kinda
Spawn--unsure of right now
SPM--hard to read, just like his posts. Can't put my finger on
Malka--haven't put too much thought into her yet, which is probably not a good thing
Gil--has made me uneasy since the quick vote after Wayne
Glirdan--confused about, something isn't sitting right
Marcolie--unsure of right now
Form--have stated my thoughts of him
Kath--same as Malka
TGWBS--leary of

Does anyone else feel like this is a million (okay...11) different ways of saying "I have no idea what this person is"? Basically, it looks like she's a wolf who can't find suspicion in anyone. It must be hard to suspect someone you know to be innocent, eh? That would make it awfully hard for a wolf to suspect an ordo. Really, this post has put you solidly on my 'to lynch' list.

TGWBS: I hate to repeat SpM, but that post accusing (continuing to accuse) Morm seems completely unreasonable, jumpy and randomly accusatory?

So, my list right now:

INNOCENT
Malkatoj

PROBABLY INNOCENT
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion

UNKNOWN (or just under my radar, which is almost more suspicious)
Glirdan
Garin
Kath
Marcolie
Gil-Galad

WOLFISH
Dancing Spawn
Naria
TGWBS

With less than an hour left, I cast my vote for today for

++NARIA


Edit-note: Cross posted with Morm, SpM and TGWBS

[Formendacil]

Alas that there are not more hours in a day... but the time has come for me to vote... Confound pizza-making, and everything to do with it!

Now then, I'm tied for first... I'll admit that I don't like that. I'm innocent, after all, though expecting you to believe that seems to be a bit much...

So... how to save myself a wee bit...

Naria.

Sorry, about it, old girl, but I really don't want to be lynched, the village consensus seems to be that you're one o' the guilty ones. I'll admit that you're fairly suspicious, although past experience suggests that that's just your style.

But I'm selfish.

++ Naria

[the guy who be short]

Two people have come out in support of mormegil, which is interesting. I was almost tempted to change my vote by SpM's appeal, but both malkatoj's and mormegil's own posts have convinced me to stick to my guns.

++MORMEGIL

[the guy who be short]

Sorry, I don't have time to analyse Gil today.

[malkatoj]

Votes:

MORMEGIL:
-Kath
-TGWBS

GIL-GALAD:
-Glirdan
-Nilp

FORMENDACIL:
-Mormegil
-Naria

MARCOLIE:
-Garin

NARIA:
-Saucepan
-Malkaoj
-Formendacil

MALKATOJ:
-Dancing Spawn

Not Voted:
-Marcolie
-Gil-Galad

[Meneltarmacil]

Time's up!

Villagers, please cease posting for the Day. Votes will be totaled and a death scene posted momentarily.

[Meneltarmacil]

"Naria!" mormegil called. "You're coming with us!"

"Sorry," she said. "I was just having a nice little chat with these dolphins here. What can I do for you?"

At that moment, the villagers seized Naria and dragged her off to the gallows. Partway there, however, something terrifying happened.

Before the villagers' eyes, Naria underwent a frightening transformation. Grayish-black hair grew all over her body as her snout lengthened and large fangs developed in her mouth. Her transformation completed, Naria turned to the rising moon and let out a bone-chilling howl.

The villagers backed into defensive postures. As Naria the Werewolf lunged forward, Nilpaurion Felagund, Kath, Formendacil, and The Saucepan Man, together with Garin and his pigs, rushed her at once.

When the dust cleared, the villagers started to celebrate. They had finally slain their first Wolf.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4

Wolves: 2
Villagers: 10

It is now Night 5. Wolves, begin your PMing. I need names from the Wolves, Seer, and Hunter.

[Meneltarmacil]

After waking up in the morning after the celebration, the villagers noticed that Márcolië Lamen was missing.

The villagers made their way to her house, located next to the Second Official Eighth Day Adventist Temple of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, to look for clues.

“What happened here?” dancing spawn of ungoliant asked as she surveyed the unusual scene before them.

Márcolië Lamen’s remains lay on the floor, along with a great deal of what appeared to be tomato sauce, noodles, and mozzarella cheese strewn all over the place.

“She’s definitely all dead,” malkatoj stated. “Only one thing I can do now.”

While malkatoj was collecting loose change from around the room, the guy who be short found a note on the floor. Formendacil read it to the village.

The first sentence was in Márcolië’s handwriting:

“May the Flying Spaghetti Monster take me in peace.”

The rest of it, however, had been written by someone else.

“Dear Márcolië Lamen,
Thanks for giving us such a great idea.
It was quite tasty.
Yum yum,
-The Wolves
PS: Villagers, you’re still doomed.”

With another Ordinary Villager dead, the villagers started to discuss who they would lynch next.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5

Wolves: 2
Villagers: 9

It is now Day 5. Villagers, you may begin posting.

[Glirdan]

Wow!! Another shocker! But I must say again that the Wolves are smart. Going after Marcolie (like Aiwendil and Valier) was smart becasue once again, we don't have that many clues leading towards anyone. She was a quiet one until recently. I'm going to go over her posts from yesterDay. I'll have my analysis up shortly.

[Glirdan]

Marcolie: Posted twice all Day yesterDay and did not vote.

Post 1: Expresses sorrow for Cailin and comments that by giving up her life, she was able to save the Seer one more Day. Says that it is unnerving that Naria did not vote for a known innocent as of yet. Notes that she herself has been rather quiet and sugests that we should vote for those who are really quiet as well. Does short analyses on those who have barely posted who were still alive (herself and Naria included in it). Thinks that Form is perhaps the Cobbler. Suggests that we live Form for now. Finds that Gil is an odd player because we can't really understand him yet trusts him more than Form. Finds that Kath is more of a Wolf than the other two yet won't accuse her becasue she wasn't there to defend herself. Thinks that at least one of the people out of those she listed is Wolf (turns out that she was right on that) and also believes that not all three Wolves would be quiet. Believes that the Wolves would be Naria who is the quiet one (proven), Garin the loud one and not sure who the other would be.

Post 2: This one is plain and simple. Lists who's voted that far into the Day and for whom. Believes we should add one more person to the list and it should be Naria.

Well, from all that, Garin is looking rather guilty now. He's voted for all known innocents which is very incriminating. He is really looking suspicious in my eyes. I believe, if I have to vote early (which I may indeed have to do), my vote will be for him.

[Formendacil]

Marcolie....

Now why would the wolves kill Marcolie? Quite frankly, I find this an odd choice on the part of the Wolves... Marcolie has, thus far, been a slightly suspicious member of the village. Her name came up a great deal in the last couple days as a potential danger. For the Wolves to kill her suggests that they aren't interested in keeping a lot of suspicious people around- which suggests that the remaining Werewolves are receiving very little attention or suspicion from the village, if they are keen to kill off someone who wasn't threatening anyone vehemently yesterday, and who was a good potential alternative suspect to themselves....

I agree with Glirdan that it was a very smart choice for the Wolves to make, since it leaves only a faint trail. It also makes me think that we should look at a somewhat different list of Villagers today. The people, in fact, who had NOTHING to do with Marcolie.

Also, looking at the list, it seems to me that we are running low on Ordinary, Innocent Villlagers. Only about a third of us are in that category... Interesting, how the Werewolfing trends of late have meant fairly long survival for Gifteds and Werewolves. An an Innocent Villager, that troubles me... as a possible Cursed, it intrigues me...

[Formendacil]

Looking back at the opening, rules page, I see that there IS no Cursed... Which is a relief. Apologies for any confusion I may have, inadvertantly, be causing.

[Garin]

Well, I didn't want to mention this because it makes me look suspicious in its own right. I think it quite obvious that the wolves are trying to set me up. TWO nightly deaths in a row from people that have either voted for me or raised suspicion of me in their last breaths? I am hardly that bold, especially since suspicions of me came early. It is someting I am used to. Marcolie was correct in her suspicions of Naria and I think that the wolves just likes to feast on quiet ones that leave slight trails. I stand by my vote for her though I am sorry the wolves took another innocent, at least she wasn't gifted. They might have thought she was the seer and she was covering her tracks by mentioning an innocent and a wolf in one sentence.
I still think the quiet ones make decent targets, because they help little.
I need to peruse for a while and perhaps analyze or, at the very least write a sentence about each villager.

[Garin]

Looking back at the opening, rules page, I see that there IS no Cursed...

Thank you Form because I thought there WAS a cursed, but I see you were right.
I swear Mod Meneltarmacil said there was going to a cursed on the original werewolf thread but it didn't seem to make it to the actual game.
This is reassuring.

[mormegil]

Odd! Marcolie's death is of course but also our new found advocacy in Formendacil. If I didn't know better I would think him to be starting off the game hoping to get a lot of suspicion and then slowing tapering off that suspicion. I've seen many instances where this happens and we seem to forget that person that we suspected at the beginning. Hopefully I will have a moment to analyze his posts and come up with some evidence. As it is the weekend, perhaps I will. Admittedly this seems like a clumsly attempt to frame Garin, who the wolves know looks suspicious, but I could be wrong.

[malkatoj]

So we've killed one wolf--most wonderful. We want to kill the other two.

If the guy who be short is not a wolf, I will eat my holocaust cloak.

Here's the deal: I'm the seer. No, I don't have both of the other wolves, but I've got one and he must be killed. I'm only announcing this now because I've already shed enough suspicion on TGWBS (at least, I think I have) that the wolves might be out to get me. So this solidifies it, right? Now they'll definitely want me dead, and I just blew my chance of dreaming the last wolf. I don't, however, feel like dropping subtle hints that perhaps the wolves will pick up on before you guys. I think that with two known wolves, it'll be a lot easier to deduce the third than it would be to deduce two with only one known.

(Also, I have limited computer access right now, and I'd rather you not lynch me because of that and then not know who's who.)

Plus, it's possible I have no idea on the third and they won't kill me tonight. Then I get another night, and you guys will (finally) believe that Nilpaurion, Saucepan, Mormegil and Formendacil are all perfectly ordinary villagers. And TGWBS is a wolf. Lynch him.

++THE GUY WHO BE FURRY

Thank you.

[Garin]

I'd like to believe Malkatoj but she has accused someone who no one else has suspected. If you are the seer, thank you for your service. Why were you so quiet? It wasn't helpful until possibly now. It seems the village could be doomed.

[Garin]

The problem with Malkatoj is that I found the same villagers were innocent, if only by instinct, I really need to think about this.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Thank you very much for that, malkatoj. You have my undying gratitude, and that of this village, in narrowing the list of suspects.

Only five unknown villagers left.

dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Glirdan
Gil-galad

As I said before, I won't accuse spawn

The Kath - Glirdan theory is now defunct, since there is only one Werewolf left.

Garin and Gil-galad still unnerves me.

Okay, I'll still be back for some insights into the final Werewolf.

Hunter: If you are in the list of suspects, PLEASE DECLARE YOURSELF NOW.

With four unknowns left, we could do two double-lynches and win this game. That is, if the Hunter is not yet proven innocent by malkatoj's declaration.

Now, for my vote:

++the guy who be short and furry

You finally broke the Ordo curse in style, monsieur.

[Garin]

I don't want to believe that TGBWS is a wolf because he seemed to be one of the first to vote for Naria in the game, It could have been a wolf thing but I won't be surprised if we are falling into a trap. May Eru have mercy upon my soul if I am wrong:
++The Guy Who Be Short
It was a masterful play if you are a wolf my friend, but there is but but one way to find out. It seems everyone found you innocent.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

It was a safe vote. It bore almost no chance of taking Naria to the gallows, since the only reasoning I see for guy's vote is his fondness for me, and Naria voted for me during the previous DAY. It might have been a set-up, even.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Smoking gun! Smoking gun! Smoking gun!

(Or, perhaps a bloodied teeth. )

(Oh, and thank you, Glirdan. )

Naria trusts Gil (unknown) more than Form (innocent).

Double-lynch, anyone?

[Garin]

Nilpaurion Felagund: It was a safe vote. It bore almost no chance of taking Naria to the gallows, since the only reasoning I see for guy's vote is his fondness for me, and Naria voted for me during the previous DAY.

Thanks Nilp but I can't see comrades voting for comrades, it must be my upbringing or my lack thereof. Nonetheless, my vote is cast. Godspeed, Guy.

EDIT: cross posted with Nilp: I can see Gil lurking in the shadows but my vote has been cast.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

See, it's a pretty good tactic. You can't seem to get over the idea of a Werewolf voting for a comrade. Therefore, some Werewolves do use it.

Umm, and about my post above: Sorry, it was Márcolië's thoughts, not Naria's. You may safely ignore that post.

[Garin]

Well Nilp, I don't see Glirdan or Kath being out of the web, or den. Gil remains in the circle, if Malkatoj ends up being the seer I guess we'll know more. I stand behind her innocents (the people she thinks are innocent) but I will be surprised if "The Guy" is a wolf.
Horribly, surprised.
EDIT Changed Will to Well. Plus I'm just shocked on the recent revalations and it seems few are about, I beg our community to get into this.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Are you hiding something? Out with it.

[Garin]

Are you hiding something? Out with it.

No, I thought we were being cordial, I guess I'm just new to this and can't believe how conniving some are. That is not directed at you.

[mormegil]

Well so much for my analysis...oddly I was considering doing an analysis on Malka too. Now what? Nilp since you are innocent and seem to want the double lynch, which I don't disagree with, who do you propose? I'm looking at the 3G's Glirdan, Garin and Gil-Galad. Most likely Glirdan because even though SpM thinks he's innocent I still haven't been fully convinced. Gil is confusing but that's Gil and Garin is suspicious but I don't believe him to be a wolf.

[Garin]

Anyways, I have to truffle hunt in about seven hours so I need to take to take a rest. It is unfortunate that few people are about at this hour and that is just me and Nilp, but I will stand with my vote... I am simply shocked by what has happened today. I thought I had a good idea of who was innocent and who was wolvish and if it turns true, my intuition was ever so wrong. It is more a thing of pride. I presently believe Malkatoj, I'm just kicking myself silly.

EDIT: cross-posted with Morm, see how wrong I have been?

[mormegil]

Before I go to bed I just got to thinking about it and Malka may have dreamt of a cobbler. Does this mean anything? I'm not sure but if she did it may be dangerous to wholly trust all of us and my guess if the cobbler is amongst us would be Formendacil for reasons stated throughout. Any thoughts on this?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Odd! Marcolie's death is of course but also our new found advocacy in Formendacil. If I didn't know better I would think him to be starting off the game hoping to get a lot of suspicion and then slowing tapering off that suspicion. I've seen many instances where this happens and we seem to forget that person that we suspected at the beginning. Hopefully I will have a moment to analyze his posts and come up with some evidence. As it is the weekend, perhaps I will.

Terribly sorry about that, my dead (did I just write dead? I meant "dear") Morm, I shall try and act a bit more suspicious from now on, so as to keep in 'form'.

By all means, analyze my posts... I've been so blatantly suspicious you ought to find a few things.

Sorry about that last, helpful post. I couldn't think of any ways to act subtly over-the-top while still putting forward some useful information. Don't worry, it shan't happen again.

Now, we have evidence, I suppose, from our Seer about the definite guilt of The Wolf Who Be Short, as well as the confirmed innocence of Nil[, Morm, SPM, and- WAIT A MINUTE!!! WHAT DO YOU MEAN I'M PROVEN INNOCENT??? NO MORE KEEPING PEOPLE GUESSING???? GEEZ! WHAT A SPOILSPORT

Okay, now, anyway... I have no idea what to do about finding the other Werewolf. All I can do to be useful is to vote:

++ The Guy Who Be Short

Wait...

I just remembered something...

The Cobbler, according to the official definition of the rules, appears as an Innocent Villager if the Seer dreams of them, meaning that Morm, Nilp, and SPM are all still potential Cobblers.

Crap.

Well, at least I know that I'm not the Cobbler. Getting you all to believe me... well, that's another matter.

Hmm... Maybe suspicious Garin is the Cobbler.

[Formendacil]

Just Cross-Posted With Morm.

Morm: I already told you, I PROMISED, that I am not the Cobbler.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Now, this is most excellent! Malkatoj's vote for Naria pretty much showed that she's innocent, but the fact that she could give us four innocents more and a wolf is great. Thank you.


How did the wolves vote:

Day1:

Formendacil -> Valier
Nilpaurion -> Nilp
Valier -> Wayne
Abercrombie -> Nilp
Cailín -> Wayne
mormegil -> Valier
Sauce -> Abercrombie
TGWBS -> Abercrombie
Garin -> Valier
spawn -> Abercrombie
Aiwendil -> Abercrombie
Kath -> Abercrombie
Shelob -> Garin
Malkatoj -> Wayne
Glirdan -> Sauce
Naria -> Nilp

So, there was a wolf voting for Abercrombie after all. Every lynching candidate of Day 1 is a known innocent except Garin. Shelob's vote doesn't automatically make him suspicious, though, because as the record shows, innocents are easily mistaken.

Day 2:

Nilp -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Kath
Valier -> Garin
mormegil -> Cailín
Sauce -> Shelob
TGWBS -> Naria
spawn -> Shelob
Formendacil -> Sauce
Cailín -> Garin
Kath -> Valier
Shelob -> Cailín
Garin -> Shelob

The infamous wolf -> wolf vote...
That was a weird day with so many non-voters. Anyway, if Kath or Garin was a wolf, would TGWBS had voted for Naria instead putting one of the three innocents on the lead. Maybe he felt safe to do that since there had been so much talk about Shelob and Cailín that day.

Day 3:

Wayne -> Wayne
Gil -> Wayne
malkatoj -> Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce
mormegil -> Cailín
Nilp -> Cailín
Sauce -> Cailín
Naria -> Formendacil
TGWBS -> mormegil
spawn -> Wayne
Garin -> Cailín
Kath -> mormegil
Formendacil -> Wayne
Cailín -> Wayne
Márcolië -> Wayne

Well, no wolves among the lynching candidates, so the wolves were free to vote as they pleased.

Day 4:

Kath -> mormegil
Nilp -> Gil
Glirdan -> Gil
mormegil -> Formendacil
Garin -> Márcolië
Sauce -> Naria
Naria -> Formendacil
spawn -> malkatoj
malkatoj -> Naria
Formendacil -> Naria
TGWBS -> mormegil

Naria made a tie between Formendacil and Gil. Was this an attempt to save Gil? However, she had made a case against Formendacil on Day 3, so it was natural that she'd vote for him again, since she apparently had no thoughts of anyone else.
TGWBS could have tried to save Naria by voting Gil, but if Gil's a wolf, it would have been out of question. Besides, he practically had to vote for morm because he had been so vocal about his theory.

More thoughts as soon as I can.

[The Saucepan Man]

First, for the sake of good form (and partially for the sake of good Form ), here is yesterday's voting:

1. Kath for mormegil (mormegil-1)
2. Nilp for Gil-Galad (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-1)
3. Glirdan for Gil-Galad (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2)
4. mormegil for Formendacil (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-1)
5. Garin for Márcolië (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-1, Márcolië-1)
6. SpM for Naria (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-1, Márcolië-1, Naria-1)
7. Naria for Formendacil (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-2, Márcolië-1, Naria-1)
8. Dancing spawn for malkatoj (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-2, Márcolië-1, Naria-1, malkatoj-1)
9. malkatoj for Naria (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-2, Márcolië-1, Naria-2, malkatoj-1)
10. Formendacil for Naria (mormegil-1, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-2, Márcolië-1, Naria-3, malkatoj-1)
11. TGWBS for mormegil (mormegil-2, Gil-Galad-2, Formendacil-2, Márcolië-1, Naria-3, malkatoj-1)

Did not vote: Gil-Galad, Márcolië

Secondly, I would like to thank the Wolves for not killing me last night. I was pretty sure that they would, after I started the voting for Naria. It's why I overslept ...

Thirdly, although I mourn the death of Marcolie as much as I would any innocent, I would also like to thank the Wolves for killing someone who would have been one of my chief suspects today. While I see the sense in what people are saying about them killing Wolves who leave little trail, it is nevertheless helpful to me that they are narrowing down my list of suspects.

Fourthly, I would like to thank malkatoj for declaring herself. Given the pattern of Wolfish kills, she would have been in danger tonight and she has provided excellent quality information. It was the right thing to do, malka. I suppose we cannot be absolutely sure about her until everyone has posted, but instinctively I believe her.

Fifth, I would like to curse TGWBS for being such a fiendishly good Wolf. I was beginning to have some concerns about him, based on his determined attack on morm, but I wonder whether we would actually have pegged him without malka's help.

Assuming malka is the Seer, the following remain unknowns:

dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Glirdan
Gil-galad

I am inclined to think that Garin is innocent on the basis that the Wolves' kills have often seemed to incriminate him. He was the only villager whom Marcolie's death pointed towards. I suspect that the Wolves have been making a concerteds effort to frame him all along, although I do not discount the possibility of a fiendish double bluff.

Glirdan, I still see as innocent for the reasons stated yesterday. I have seen nothing to change that analysis.

Given TGWBS' staunch defence of her, I am now more concerned about Kath than I was before.

Spawn worries me also, on the basis that I have instinctively trusted her all along for the good sense that she talks. I felt the same way about TGWBS.

As for Gil-Galad - well, who knows?

As others have pointed out, there may well be a Cobbler among those who have been declared innocent. While we need to bear that in mind, I do not think we should overly concern ourselves with finding him or her at this stage. We have more pressing matters to attend to.

I will withold my vote for now. It will almost certainly be for TGWBS, but there remains a possibility that it will be needed elsewhere. In the meantime, I have some further research to do, based on the knowledge that we now have.

[the guy who be short]

Wait! Me? Werewolf?! This is preposterou-

Oh, who am I kidding? I knew we should have gone for malka... Kill her tonight, will you, fellow wolfy? And then, while you-know-who is certainly the you-know-what, what with the innocent list, it's safer to pick them off than killing you-know-who.

Cobbler, do your best, please. I have an idea who you are, but certainty eludes me. Stay alive until the end, if you can. Do not confuse, but aim to live. Werewolves can still win, and my fellow wolf will make sure to kill you humanely.

Well, it was fun, villagers. I think you should lynch morm anyway, look at his track record. Do that tomorrow, will you? He could go after any of you others next!

++MORMEGIL

I rest secure in the knowledge that today's voting record will show you nothing, anyway.

Finally, some Shakespearedil:

The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones.

Remember me for the good I did. My aid should surely not be discredited simply due to my lycanthropic tendencies when dark falls.

Farewell.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hehe. I was just about to sound a note of caution on the basis that it seems rather fortuitous that all of malkatoj's dreams have been for villagers who remain alive.

But TGWBS has thankfully confirmed her status.

One think I would like to hear from malka on (before she dies - as she almost certainly will tonight). Did you dream of all those that you have declared innocent? It is not entirely clear from your post that you did.

I also presume that you have not dreamed of the Hunter, as you would have told us if you did. But please confirm.

I am pretty sure that I know who the Hunter is, but it is for them to declare themselves, not me. I think that you should. The Wolf will think twice about kiling you, on the basis that, even on a random shot, you should have a 50:50 chance of killing the last Wolf. And the Wolf is certainly unlikely to kill you tonight.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here is my analysis of the voting thus far. It concentrates on the votes of those who remain unknown quantities, assuming that those who malkatoj has declared innocent are indeed innocent (although one of them could, of course, still be the Cobbler). I will not re-post the lists of votes, as they are all available further up the discussion (thanks spawn), and it will take up unnecessary space to post them again.

Day 1 - If the Wolves were looking to spread their votes, then the votes of dancing spawn and Kath speak in their favour. They both voted for Abercrombie, whom TGWBS had voted for. However, it remains possible that two Wolves voted for the same innocent villager, particularly on Day 1. Garin's vote put Valier, a known innocent, ahead. Glirdan's vote for me could be seen as a safe throwaway vote. Gil-Galad did not vote.

Day 2 - Given that we know Naria was a Wolf, Kath's vote looks like an innocent one. She could have put Naria in a safer position by voting for either Shelob or Garin. Garin's vote looks suspicious as it put Shelob ahead. Spawn's could go either way as it put Shelob ahaead of Naria, but was perhaps a risky vote for a Wolf at that stage. Gil-Galad and Glirdan did not vote, and neither did Naria. How likely is it that two Wolves would not turn up to vote?

Day 3 - Difficult to tell much as all the votes were for known innocents. Kath's vote looks the most suspicious as it carried with it the least chance of revealing that it was cast for a known innocent. She voted for the same villager (mormegil) that TGWBS had voted for, but mormegil was unlikely to be lynched that day. If Garin is a Wolf, he was taking quite a risk in voting for Cailin.

Day 4 - Kath voted for mormegil and TGWBS later followed suit. How likely is it that two Wolves would vote for the same villager in the circumstances of Day 4? Possible, I suppose, given that Naria was in danger when TGWBS voted. Glirdan's vote is the least suspicious as it was quite likely that Gil-Galad would be lynched at the time he voted. The votes of Garin and dancing spawn are quite innocuous, and could have been Wolfish attempts to hide. Dancing spawn could have voted to try to save Naria instead of voting for malkatoj, but that would have been a risky vote for a Wolf. Gil-Galad did not vote again. How likely is it that a Wolf would fail to vote 3 days out of four?

Hmm, difficult to draw any solid conclusions. I remain inclined to view Glirdan as innocent and the way that the voting has gone makes me think that Gil-Galad is too, although he could be the Cobbler.

Garin's votes look the most suspicious, but that is not necessarily the sign of a Wolf as it is quite likely that a Wolf would have voted more cautiously than he has. And his suspicious voting pattern ties in with the idea that the Wolves have been looking to frame him with their nightly votes.

As for Kath, her voting pattern could go either way. TGWBS has spoken in support of her quite frequently. An attempt to protect his Wolfish companion, or an attempt to establish false guilt by association? Difficult to know.

Dancing spawn really does concern me, though. She has been vocal throughout. Her contributions have made good sense. Mostly because of that, she has not yet attracted a single vote. Is she a very clever and careful Wolf who has succeeded in slipping almost entorely beneath our collective radars?

I will have to go back and review what has been said throughout our four previous days of discussion. For today, I see little point in a double-lynch unless we can be reasonably sure that we have identified the final Wolf. I am not nearly certain enough to countenance voting for anyone other than TGWBS at this stage. We do not want to help the last Wolf by eliminating an innocent with our known Wolf. We would then be two innocents and one Wolf down tomorrow.

[the guy who be short]

If anybody is interested, I support a double lynch. Kill as many villagers as you can. We can still kill morm off, people.

*Manic Laughter*

[the guy who be short]

Does malka's vote count? Technically, she didn't vote for me. Perhaps a wolvish ploy to cast suspicion on me, yet avoid voting for an ally?

Oh, wait...