Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

GUILTY
sally

Yes, clearly, because I've caught you in your guilt in the what, three posts I've made all game? Goodness, you've got me! *feigns unease*

Also, I laugh heartily at that Pitch comment.


Need to leave soon-ish, or at least get ready to do so, so I'll be away for a few minutes.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

But why wouldn't they go after the BW?

Because it might lead back to them? In my opinion it'd make more sense to keep their hands clear and wait for Tom to take care of her.

Thus, they're not going to kill him/her at Night, which means they'll be going after the rest of us, including our seer and Tom Bombadil, and having a better chance of hitting them than they would have had they not eliminated the BW from their Nightly equation. Hence, not good. Not really bad, either, but also not shiny.

Yeah but they already wasted a kill on the BW which means the seer got one more dream. So I wouldn't go so far as to call it "BAD STUFF".

And I have no idea what the wolves would do. I just know that it's a possibility, and thus we need to consider it. Besides, why are you trying to discount my idea when you agree that they will know more than the rest of us?

Because I think you look mighty suspicious and your idea looks intentionally misleading.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yes, clearly, because I've caught you in your guilt in the what, three posts I've made all game? Goodness, you've got me! *feigns unease*

Sally, if you want to suspect someone with fabricated-looking reasons, I'm not the right person to choose. Know this.

[A Little Green]

Ah, silly me, I had kind of miscounted the daylight savings thing and was expecting DL in two and a half hours. Don't know how that's possible, but maths is really not my thing...

So. I don't feel like adding any more candidates for the lynch as there are fine enough ones already. I'd put them in the following order of preference (least desired lynch being on top and most desired on the bottom):

Agan
Shasta
Kath
Inzil
Elf-Warrior
Eomer

I could think of voting either of the two last. I'm guessing Agan is innocent, Shasta and Kath seem similarly genuine but I'm not at all certain about them. Inzil I'm at a loss with.


EDIT: x-ed with loads

[Aganzir]

Under 10 minutes till deadline, where is everybody?

I'd really like to vote for sally but unfortunately I don't think enough others will and I don't want to throw away my vote.

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Left: Agan, Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch, sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Sally, if you want to suspect someone with fabricated-looking reasons, I'm not the right person to choose. Know this.

Excellent. I'll be sure to only use my legitimate ones then, which are still enough to get you exposed as the baddie you are. Buh-bye.

++Agan





And just in case Boro is cranky and it matters that I linked that....

++Agan

[Boromir88]

Bit under 10 minutes left.

Also popping in to say that Fea is being a good girl in completing her school work today so I'll be doing the narration. It won't be anything like her amusing videos, so whoever does die, sorry you'll have to make due with a written by me. I've got family business right after so as soon as I close the DL and confirm who's got the most votes, the role will be revealed.

[A Little Green]

Does anyone else find the thing between Agan and Sally more than a bit off? Not sure what's going on there but it makes me feel worse about both.

[Kath]

Yay for no Night kill coming by the way. Form will likely be spitting though.

wilwa: States the obvious but I'm not complaining, it's good to know where we stand. Oh answered Pitch anyway. Not a fan of ElfHe either. Supports lynching a quiet player. Sure since it means you're safe.

Inzil: Says we can put Shasta's theory to rest. Sure, but let's not just ignore all the debate around it - such talk can often hold clues in later Days once we know more roles. Thinks Shasta may be a Cobbler. Bit of a defence of sally after Agan said 'let's lynch a quiet player'. Analyses me! Exciting. Someone answered the 'rules' thing already.

Lottie: Is she saying that because Nog wasn't TBW that means Eomer is more likely to be? Not sure about that logic. And why does Agan have to be evil for that to be possible? Have I just missed an explanatory post somewhere on this? Ah ok, got it. I can sort of see where she's coming from ... if we're accepting that wolves follow blindly the suggestions of the Day. Given the potential wolves we have I'm not sure that's the case. I like the thinking-through though. "What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?" <-- No sorry I'm confused again. If Nog were being framed and had actually been lynched yesterDay Shastawolf would have been able to move on and kill someone else. The fact that Nog wasn't lynched may have led Shastawolf to suggest killing him so the village goes 'oh well unlikely Shasta is a wolf to have done that'. But we're on to double/triple bluffing tactics and that just gets impossible. Says she might vote for ElfHe or Eomer. Votes ElfHe for being a submarine.

Nerwen: Following Lottie's ideas better than I was! Volo-voters analysis. As a thought, I thought Nog meant that Eomer made more sense as in his meaning-making was better not that Eomer made more sense as a wolf. Votes Agan ... um? Wish people would put reasons in their vote-posts, I'm assuming this is for being a Volo-voter.

ElfHe: Well there's some reasoning in here at least. Votes Shasta for twisting Lottie's words. Why such a strenuous defence of Lottie I don't know, but he seems pretty convinced about Shasta. I don't like the playing style I must say, this popping in and out with single posts.

Eomer: Agrees with Nerwen that a wolf is likely in the Volo-voters. Says he didn't see Nog as Seerish and thus odd wolf kill. Easy to say in hindsight.

Pitch: Volo as Ranger could have known wilwa wasn't TBW. If he protected her Night 1, when the wolves went after TBW, then clearly wilwa isn't TBW as there was no mention of the Ranger in the narration. That's how I read it anyway. He didn't though know her actual role. Says Inzil had tried to make Volo look self-contradictory which is suspicious.

Agan: Not quite a defence of ElfHe but pretty close. Analyses Inzil and finds him non-suspicious. Suggests lynching a quiet player, specifically sally. Says Inzil's reasons may be less innocent looking but that his suspicion of Volo was fair.

Greenie: Thinks Agan voting for Volo was odd because she knows he always plays in the way she suspected him for. Apart from Shasta and wilwa has no concrete thoughts. So if she's a wolf, one of those two is a packmate and the other an innocent. Some good thoughts in there.

Oh and can I mention how much I LOVE this game for the fact that there are only two pages to catch up on! Bliss. <-- Wrote that before I realised I was out of time. I've not got to the end so will have to vote based on what I have got.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Excellent. I'll be sure to only use my legitimate ones then, which are still enough to get you exposed as the baddie you are. Buh-bye.

++Agan

Haha looking forward to that.

++Eomer

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil
sally - Agan 2
Agan - Eomer 2
Left: Eomer, Form, Greenie, Kath, Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Unfortunately, it looks like both of my top vote candidates won't be back toDay. Voting someone in absence always seems unsportsmanlike, but sometimes you have nothing better.

Eomer's probably going to be modfired, so

++Zil
It's a long time since I've had any suspicion on him, but I there's a chance I won't be fooled this time.

EDIT: x-ed with the last two, so this wasn't me being gentlemanly!!!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Does anyone else find the thing between Agan and Sally more than a bit off? Not sure what's going on there but it makes me feel worse about both.

It's called "I wasn't around the last Day or two and I'm not letting her escape a lynch again because she should have been dead yesterDay" if you've not heard of it.

Of course her end is a just pretty rubbish frame job. Trying to kill me based on like two posts when Elf has nearly the same number and has actually been suspicious? Heh. Nice try.

[A Little Green]

++ Elf-Warrior

Since I just remembered that Eomer might be modfired anyway, and EW was second-lowest on my list. His inconsistency might be genuine but it seems too off to be so. And he's a submarine and he's somewhat unhelpful.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Eomer's probably going to be modfired, so

I know but he's the only one who already has a vote that I actually suspect.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Trying to kill me based on like two posts when Elf has nearly the same number and has actually been suspicious? Heh. Nice try.

I would disagree with this, you're by far more suspicious than he.

[Aganzir]

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil
sally - Agan 2
Agan - Eomer 2
Pitch - Zil 2
Greenie - EW 2

Left: Eomer, Form, Kath

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I would disagree with this, you're by far more suspicious than he.

Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you. You never stick around to play anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

This....

Originally Posted by Aganzir

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil
sally - Agan 2
Agan - Eomer 2
Pitch - Zil 2
Greenie - EW 2

Left: Eomer, Form, Kath

....is unacceptable. Someone better bloody well break the tie.

[Kath]

EW - Shasta
Nerwen - Agan
Lottie - EW
Zil - Kath
wilwa - Eomer
Shasta - Zil

Wow 5 lynch candidates? Well form those I'd be tempted to go for ElfHe for being a bit submarine and non-useful. But somebody said he gets louder as the game goes and I don't recall playing with him before (yeah yeah shoot me if I've forgotten) so if this is true I'm willing to give him another Day.

Argh a minute! Um, ok, I odn't want to lynch the others so:

++ElfHE
Despite what I just said.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Only because you know I'm right and thus you need me dead. Mind you, I completely understand what you're doing, and I'd probably do the same thing, but it's not going to work. Sorry, muffin. And actually, I wish you weren't evil, because then I wouldn't have to kill you. You never stick around to play anymore.

Erm what?

[Boromir88]

Deadline. No more chatter nor voting.

I'll count the votes, cus right now I have no clue and role should be revealed within about 5 minutes.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Erm what?

You're evil, and I've clearly caught you. Thus, the easiest way to save your skin is to discredit me. I don't have a problem with it, really. It's just not going to work is all.

Also, Kath....interesting. This could shed some funny-colored lights on things.



EDIT: x'd with Boro. Terribly sorry, my lord.

[Pitchwife]

No quadruple tie! Noooo!

EDIT: x-ed with the Mod and DL

[Kath]

Wow lucky cross posting there! I think? I broke the tie right?

EDIT: Oops sorry Boro-mod.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

No quadruple tie! Noooo!

Well from my count it has been broken and Elfie is lynched.

Edit:

Yep tis Elfie and wow you lot have a huge tendancy to kill your gifteds.

Seer be dead. Carry on with night activities narration later.

[Boromir88]

I'm also going to be "opening" the day a little ahead of usual since I'm having dinner a little earlier than normal.

Wolves you may continue to chatter til 6pm EST if need be.

But for all intents and purposes, it is now Day 4. Elfie was lynched yesterday. RIP Bree's seer and because of Butterbur's death the previous night there was no kill during the night.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
Wilwa

DEAD
Boro (Mod) - knocked out stone-cold - Night 1
Fea (honorary co-mod) - nommed by wolfies - Night 1
Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf - Day 1
No death! - Night 2
Volo (innocent) - Ranger - Day 2
Nogrod (innocent) - Butterbur - Night 3
Elf-Warrior (innocent - Seer - Day 3
No death! - Night 4

[Inziladun]

Looking at TEW's votes, it's pretty clear to me where my vote toDay should go.

Day 1

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'm gonna go with ++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

He hadn't dreamed of Volo then, obviously, so this was apparently just based on his feelings.

Day 2

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I'm not sure if he dreamed of Eomer or not. TEW is very vague about what he thinks Eomer is here. This vote could be, like the one for Volo, merely based on his thoughts.
The fact that he singled out Lottie to tell her she "seemed OK", and Volo to say that he also "seems OK" at that point leads me to think it's possible he dreamed of Lottie Night 1, and Volo Night 2. Since TEW had suspected Volo enough to vote for him Day 1, it seems logical he would have dreamed Volo the next Night.

On the other hand....

Day 3

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw, That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

It doesn't get much clearer than this. He flat out accused Shasta of being a wolf. Coupled with Shasta's forced case against me, it makes even more sense.

So, my vote toDay requires no more thought.

++Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After looking at all (eight) of the Elf-Warrior's posts, I've come to the conclusion that he had a nasty habit of voting people before dreaming them.

Now, I have no idea who EW dreamt Night 1, but his Day 1 vote was for Volo, as shown here -

Originally Posted by EW

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

The "slip" I found was that Volo said something about 'killing quietly at night'. Not the most impressive reasons to vote someone out of the blue.

Moving on to Night 2. I'm fairly sure EW dreamt of Volo here and found him innocent - he dropped off Volo pretty handily (in true Legate style), as shown here -

Originally Posted by EW

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

(bolding mine)
As an aside, could EW have dreamt of Lottie Night 1? My only gripe with that is, why would EW have waited a day to say so?

In any case, EW jumps rather quickly from Volo onto Eomer. However, the wishy-washyness of this statement argues against EW having already dreamt Eomer.

Which brings us to Night 3, and Day 3, in which EW posted once, as seen here -

Originally Posted by EW

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,
That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

Notice how EW completely drops his suspicion of Eomer here (doesn't even mention him, in fact) and jumps onto me. I'm fairly certain he dreamt of Eomer and found him innocent. He probably would have jumped onto someone else tomorrow after dreaming me, but we lynched him.

TLDR; I think EW's dreams were:
N1 - Lottie? - innocent
N2 - Volo - innocent
N3 - Eomer - innocent

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Looking at TEW's votes, it's pretty clear to me where my vote toDay should go.

Day 1



He hadn't dreamed of Volo then, obviously, so this was apparently just based on his feelings.

Day 2



I'm not sure if he dreamed of Eomer or not. TEW is very vague about what he thinks Eomer is here. This vote could be, like the one for Volo, merely based on his thoughts.
The fact that he singled out Lottie to tell her she "seemed OK", and Volo to say that he also "seems OK" at that point leads me to think it's possible he dreamed of Lottie Night 1, and Volo Night 2. Since TEW had suspected Volo enough to vote for him Day 1, it seems logical he would have dreamed Volo the next Night.

On the other hand....

Day 3



It doesn't get much clearer than this. He flat out accused Shasta of being a wolf. Coupled with Shasta's forced case against me, it makes even more sense.

So, my vote toDay requires no more thought.

++Shasta

1. Voting this early in the day is never a good thing, and smacks of nasty cobblerism. Which doesn't surprise me, considering.

2. So what's your explanation for EW's flat dropping of Eomer as a suspect overNight, then?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I made the following notes at work and emailed them home. May not include complete sentences.

------

Elf

Votes Volo but then retracts suspicion “after further consideration”. Possibly dreamed about him on Night 2.

Mentions that Loslote “seems OK to him”. Dreamed about her first night?

Votes Eomer.

Next day votes Shasta. Very convinced. Shasta clearly a wolf.





Reactions to EW’s vote for Shasta.

Loslote tries to discredit him immediately (within 15 minutes).

Shasta himself refuses to argue with EW.

Inziladun mentions it in a neutral manner, then goes on to discuss other matters.

Wilwa not best pleased with EW’s method perhaps genuinely exasperated at players not posting much?

Aganzir doesn’t see anything too off with EW.

Loslote starts the chain of voting which would kill EW.

Inziladun makes sure to mention EW’s name as a potential lynch but votes for Kath instead.

Sally very suspicious of EW, but would rather vote Aganzir.

Green and Kath also vote EW.





Shasta wants to kill TEW, Inziladun, Eomer and Aganzir. This is before he is heavily suspected due to EW’s vote and death. He won’t be voting for Wilwa, Loslote or Green and he’s neutral on Pitch and Nerwen.

Sally, Kath and Form unclear to him.

Shasta votes for Inziladun.



Wolves: Shasta.

Probably not Inzi or Loslote. Not Aganzir.



I say probably between: Wilwa, Green, Sally, Kath, Pitch, Nerwen and Form.

Don’t think it’s Form. Don’t think it’s Kath.

Inclined to think that Wilwa is guilty.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

1. Voting this early in the day is never a good thing, and smacks of nasty cobblerism. Which doesn't surprise me, considering.

Vote for me, then!

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

2. So what's your explanation for EW's flat dropping of Eomer as a suspect overNight, then?

Maybe it was something you said....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inzil

It doesn't get much clearer than this. He flat out accused Shasta of being a wolf.

And another thing. He didn't, actually. According to what EW said in his post, he voted me for the following two reasons -

1. "I think he tried to frame Nog as the BW"

and

2. "This statement sticks in my craw" (re: my statement about Lottie which was quite obviously banter).

Both contrived, since reason 1 was discussed yesterDay and the question raised was "why would a Shastawolf go to all that trouble to frame Nog just to kill him?"

Someone's twisting words, and it's not me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nice try Shasta, but if EW made such a strong accusation against you, as the Seer, based on zero evidence then, well, we'd all just hunt him down in RL and burn him at the stake. And I don't believe, in all this time on the Downs, that we've ever noticed a death wish in EW.

I'm afraid you're toast.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Vote for me, then!



Maybe it was something you said....

What does this even mean?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Nice try Shasta, but if EW made such a strong accusation against you, as the Seer, based on zero evidence then, well, we'd all just hunt him down in RL and burn him at the stake. And I don't believe, in all this time on the Downs, that we've ever noticed a death wish in EW.

I'm afraid you're toast.

The reasons he gave for voting me are just as contrived as the reasons he gave for voting you Day 2. Just saying.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

2. So what's your explanation for EW's flat dropping of Eomer as a suspect overNight, then?

He had dreamed of two innocents; he needed to vote for someone, so chose me; he then decided not to dream about me and instead chose you. His suspicion of me probably wasn't that high, or perhaps it was so high he knew I'd get lynched anyway.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

What does this even mean?

That he abandoned anyone he might have planned to dream Night 3 in favor of you.

Like I said Shasta, this is just the icing on the cake. The way you and Pitch went about attacking me already had me suspicious.

Let everyone choose what they want to do. If people think I'm evil, fine. I'm not. I have nothing to lose here.

x/d with Eomer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

He had dreamed of two innocents; he needed to vote for someone, so chose me; he then decided not to dream about me and instead chose you. His suspicion of me probably wasn't that high, or perhaps it was so high he knew I'd get lynched anyway.

That doesn't make any sense. Given EW's obvious (in hindsight) pattern of dream-telegraphing (I mean, everyone so far has basically agreed that he dreamt Volo Night 2), there's no reason for him not to have dreamt you Night 3. You forget I've played several games with EW - there's something wrong if he's not calling for my blood by Day 3.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That he abandoned anyone he might have planned to dream Night 3 in favor of you.

Like I said Shasta, this is just the icing on the cake. The way you and Pitch went about attacking me already had me suspicious.

Let everyone choose what they want to do. If people think I'm evil, fine. I'm not. I have nothing to lose here.

x/d with Eomer

Nasty Shasta coming to the fore for a moment -

Inzil, I don't think you could be any more annoying if you tried. I mean, 'icing on the cake'? Really? I find this comment egregiously offensive. Contrary to what you may think, the game doesn't revolve entirely around you.

Now that that's out of my system, back to your regularly scheduled program.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The reasons he gave for voting me are just as contrived as the reasons he gave for voting you Day 2. Just saying.

Dude, if he was straining to get some reasons for his vote then he would not have implicated you so forcefully. His post is clear as day; the seer would not do that.

I hope EW did dream about Loslote. He mentioned people by name so rarely. Surely he knew his responsibilities to the village? I found Loslote's immediate attack on EW (after his vote for Shasta) a wee bitty suspicious; but I suppose an innocent could easily mistake EW's seerish discovery for evil inconsistency.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Dude, if he was straining to get some reasons for his vote then he would not have implicated you so forcefully. His post is clear as day; the seer would not do that.

I hope EW did dream about Loslote. He mentioned people by name so rarely. Surely he knew his responsibilities to the village? I found Loslote's immediate attack on EW (after his vote for Shasta) a wee bitty suspicious; but I suppose an innocent could easily mistake EW's seerish discovery for evil inconsistency.

Dude, EW does it all the time. Would you like me to go dig up examples? Because I will.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That doesn't make any sense. Given EW's obvious (in hindsight) pattern of dream-telegraphing (I mean, everyone so far has basically agreed that he dreamt Volo Night 2), there's no reason for him not to have dreamt you Night 3.

My dear Shasta: it makes perfect sense, and the reason for not dreaming about me is that there are almost a dozen people he can dream of. I know it's tempting to see patterns, but first: one example (that of Volo) does not a pattern make; and second: patterns can change anytime anyway.

You could shoehorn your theory in there, but that would ignore the fact that the Seer screamed your guilt from the rooftop.