WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Rikae]

Feanor of the Peredhil - Lurky McLurker
Brinniel - Opaque as always.
wilwarin538 - I saw something a while back that raised my eyebrow, but promptly forgot what it was. Good work, most likely kill her in the morning.
Durelin - Wolfie McWolfpants
Nogrod - Rather latrant. Diabolical.
Isabellkya - as xyloid as Al Gore.
Nerwen - irritating jennet.
Rikae - a little bit of kieselguhr makes the medicine go down.
Mith - Weighs exactly the same as a duck.
Kath - I'm going to avoid mentioning her to try to draw everyone's attention away from her for now.
Lari - Seems innocent enough, but I'm not sure why Mac thinks she's a known innocent or something.
Mac - Macropterous
Nienna - I dunno. What are you, Nienna?
Gwathagor - Forgetful. Doesn't like lists, therefore deserves death. Can we give it to him?
Nilpaurion Felagund - I don't trust him farther than I can throw him.

*whew*

[Kath]

I'm around so I'm going to ramble for a bit.

Right ...

So, now that we're confident that there was no Ranger save doesn't that seem to negate Rikae's theory about Mith?

but, of course, we know the seer wasn't protected, because the ranger protected xemself, as the narration clearly indicates. Which means the seer was not attacked, which can only mean Mith is a bluffing duck who threw Lommy to the... wolves... to make herself look good. Therefore:

Is what Rikae said but we know that the Ranger had nothing to do with anything last Night. Maybe Mith wasn't hinting at being the Seer by being so sure of Lommy but actually knew something about Lommy due to being this phantom's apprentice. Perhaps she and the phantom are able to communicate Nightly. What we don't know though is whether a phantom and phantom's apprentice win is a win for the village or whether they are similar to the Lovers in that they only win for themselves.

Rikae has returned since but doesn't seem to have rethought her plan since learning that the Ranger wasn't involved as Mith still equals duck in her latest list. Just wondering how her reasoning can be so certain given the new information.

[Kath]

Bah, double post but I just saw something Brinn said which adds to what I was talking about.

Perhaps this person was able to unlock their role when the wolves chose to attack them.

This is a very interesting idea. Given how right Mith was about Lommy yesterDay it would seem pretty likely that the wolves would think she was the Seer as how else would she have been that certain about the information and so they decided to go after her, but because of that her secret apprentice role was unlocked. That actually sounds pretty likely.

[Kath]

Added on to all the phantom's apprentice stuff is Nilp's behaviour. First he says that the apprentice is someone who is dead to the village but still talking, however that isn't the case for anybody as everyone is on the alive list. Then clarifies by saying that while they can talk they don't count in the village tally - but again I think anyone like that wouldn't be in the alive list. And then, after all that, reveals, except with a which sort of suggests that he's not actually serious. Finally he votes for me but we have no reasoning.

All in all, I'm a little confused by this and I don't think he is what he is potentially trying to claim he is.

[Rikae]

Mith is still suspect - she was running around screaming "I am the seer" yesterDay, and toDay she's still alive (and, presumably,, wasn't attacked).

[Rikae]

Besides - she doesn't know something that I happen to know the real seer would know. No, I'm not the real seer, don't waste your protection on me, ranger; but I do know something about the real seer's role. And that's all I really can say.

[Rikae]

Remember, the gifteds in this game are "modified".

[Mithalwen]

I am not a duck for the record (I woiuld say that wouldn't I ?) but like a duck I am working hard beneath the surface.

Of course I look strange but this game is a ..well I can't use the word I would in RL.... all I can say is you have plenty of time to lynch me when I stop being useful.

Oh and there is a fairly high probability that Rikae is a cobbler.

[Mithalwen]

Indeed Mac, I could quote Francis Urquhart...

[Rikae]

Maybe I'm a good cobbler.

But ok, Mith, why are you still alive, if you aren't evil?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Indeed Mac, I could quote Francis Urquhart...

No, I don't trust you, you're not on my side - but thanks for making it obvious Mackie isn't either.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mith is still suspect - she was running around screaming "I am the seer" yesterDay, and toDay she's still alive (and, presumably,, wasn't attacked).

Well someone was attacked last Night. Why are you so sure it wasn't her?

Originally Posted by Mith

Oh and there is a fairly high probability that Rikae is a cobbler.

I agree.

[Mithalwen]

If you were good you wouldn't be attacking me Rikae.

Why not read the narration? It is quite clear that the person attacked could not be killed.


Oh and you are not the good Cobbler for the same reason you are not the toothfairy, the Easter bunny or Father Christmas.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mith

Oh and you are not the good Cobbler for the same reason you are not the toothfairy, the Easter bunny or Father Christmas.

But I'm all of the above, so there (don't tell my kids ).

Nilp, what do you say about Mith having been attacked last night and being impossible to kill? It sounds like we have a couple of conflicting stories on our hands, don't we?

[Kath]

Mac's list - parts of it are very interesting.

Since Gwath was the runner-up to Quacklómien, I could very easily see a conspiracy, maybe only a spontaneous one, of the two other ducks against Gwath.

Very good point. However, even if we're assuming from the narration that there aren't just three wolves I doubt that any more than one wolf other than Lommy would have voted in that bandwagon, especially given that Lommy was in big trouble and the safer plan would have been to join that bandwagon.

The voters:
Lommy, wilwa, Nienna and Lari.

Obviously we know now that Lommy was evil. I'm going to take a look at the reasoning behind the votes of the other three.

wilwa:
Start off with Gwath, Lari and Durelin as her top suspects. Can only list bad feelings as reasoning for Lari and Durelin but finds a suspicious looking quote by Gwath and ends up with him as her top suspect. Continues with this. Mentions her top suspects as being Gwath and Lari, most likely to vote Gwath. Then votes Gwath.

Nienna:
First suspicion post has Gwath and Mith as likely votes. Mith for being too certain, Gwath for not contributing and having hidden messages. Votes Gwath for his playing style.

Lari:
List post that Lommy, Mac, Rikae, Mith and wilwa on her suspect list with Gwath on the leaning innocent list - right at the top of it in fact. Then votes Gwath ... with nothing in between.

I need to go and have dinner. I will be back afterwards as I haven't quite finished with what I wanted to look at here but from what I have looked at it looks to me like Lari might be the wolf in that little group. The sudden change on Gwath might well be the reaction of a wolf fellow of Lommy's suddenly thinking she might be able to save her. wilwa I would say looks particularly good out of the analysis. Her suspicions were stated early, well supported and consistent through the Day. Nienna ... her reasons aren't great but I think she looks less suspicious than Lari.

[Nienna]

*is utterly and completely confused*

I've decided to let all of this information process in my brain for a while and come up with a color analysis of everyone.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

But I'm all of the above, so there (don't tell my kids ).

You lie to your children? Shame on you! In the increasingly unlikely event of me having children I will tell them it is all a big lie... will save me a fortune.... I am prepared to swear allegiance to Bilious, the Oh God of Hangovers though....

[Durelin]

I think Mac has the right idea in ignoring the "phantom's apprentice" thing. The simple matter is that someone the wolves wanted to kill did not die, so all's good.

Evilish:

Lari - She still bothers me, as does her vote yesterDay. Maybe it's a bit too obvious, but both Nerwen and Nogrod who had yet to vote claimed at least to have some suspicion of Gwath. My only problem is that Lommy voted for her on Day 1.

Nienna - Her vote for Gwath certainly looks bad, too. She has generally been quiet and on the edge of things, so she's worrisome.

Nogrod and Nerwen - Just piled on the Lommy vote, so very hard to tell.

Rikae - Whatever she's up to it doesn't seem good. Cobbler? Wolf who thinks Mith is the seer and dreamt of her?

Creepy:

Nilp - Uh, yeah. It's Nilp. And I don't know what he's up to, either. Rikae seems cobbler-ish but so does Nilp...and if one is a wolf I'd say Rikae but I have no idea.

wilwa - Also a not good looking vote for Gwath but doesn't feel as foul.

Innocent-ish:

(Unless Lommy was a sacrifice)
Fea
Brinn
Mac
Mith

These two just feel innocent to me:
Kath
Izzy

The Lari voters could also be part of an attempt to save Lommy, but I am naturally less suspicious of them because I find Lari rather suspicious.

If, as some have mentioned, there are at least 3 or even 4 more wolves out there, then I think it's plenty likely to have had wolf-on-wolf voting both these past two Days.

[Nienna]

Color analysis as promised

Feanor of the Peredhil – ish-brown – in a boring sort of way

Brinniel – Phthalo Blue – she is being very reasonable right now

wilwarin538 – Cobalt Blue – I’m seeing no real reason to suspect her right now but I would like to hear more from her

Durelin – Phthalo Green – fine for the moment. She has been making some sense.

Nogrod – Burnt Siena

Isabellkya – Payne’s Grey – She seems as confused as I am… unsuspicious

Nerwen – Florescent Orange tempera – I’m slightly concerned about her at the moment… that may be just the cheerleader thing though. She is on my suspicious list for the moment

Rikae – Cadmium Yellow – acting very suspicious… and hairbrush??

Mith - Quinacridone Red – not sure really what to think of her. She makes sense and then she doesn’t make sense… but that could be just a posting requirement thing?...

Kath - Chromium Oxide Green – She is not acting overly suspicious. She is fine for me so far

Lari – Reitz Green – Her vote yesterday was a bit suspicious so she is feeling vaguely cobblerish for me right now

Mac – Viridian – speaks in codes a bit but other than that he seems innocent enough for the moment

Nienna – Titanium White – of course

Gwathagor – Naples Yellow – he still looks suspicious to me but not nearly as suspicious as others… I’m still watching him.

Nilpaurion Felagund – Ivory black – he is confusing me

[Kath]

I've forgotten what I wanted to add on to that earlier post but I just wanted to mention something from Durelin before I go and read through the posts again to find out what it was!

If, as some have mentioned, there are at least 3 or even 4 more wolves out there, then I think it's plenty likely to have had wolf-on-wolf voting both these past two Days.

If you believe that might be the case then why do you think that Lommy's vote for Lari on Day 1 makes her slightly less suspicious?

[Mithalwen]

Creepy? I am surrounded by ducks I think...for the last hour..that is creepy.

[Rikae]

Haha, well, if you all think I'm so suspicious, lynch me, then! Put your money where your mouth is!

EDIT: X'd with creeped-out Mith.

[Durelin]

Haha, I forgot Gwath. He definitely goes in the innocent-ish category.

Heading back to school toDay (was on break) so from now on you'll probably be hearing less from me I'm afraid.

Really Nienna? I don't even remember most of those colours being in a 100 pack crayon box, and have little idea what they mean.

(Edit: Crossed with some people.)

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Haha, well, if you all think I'm so suspicious, lynch me, then! Put your money where your mouth is!

EDIT: X'd with creeped-out Mith.

Yes sweetie we could but I am fairly confident that you are only a cobbler and the priority is to get rid of the duckies .... and sorry Nienna but at the moment you are still top of the hit list. Nothing personal...just business...

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Kath

If you believe that might be the case then why do you think that Lommy's vote for Lari on Day 1 makes her slightly less suspicious?

I didn't say it made her less suspicious, but it is an issue to address. Part of addressing it is realizing that with a larger than usual number of wolves we may well have more wolf-on-wolf voting than usual. Not that I have any clue what is usual in these games really, or that usual would begin to describe it.

Rikae and Mith you are both driving me crazy. I don't think the latter is trying to but you're doing it all the same. Either say things or don't say them, I don't like it in between.

Edit: Crossed with Mith again.

[Macalaure]

*looks around confused and whimpers*

Mith, Rikae, and Nilp have conspired to give me a headache. May swift death catch each.

I agree with Kath on Wilwa and Lari. Lari's the most suspicious looking of the bunch, and I would really like to hear what she has to say about her vote. We all have sudden changes of mind, but the fact that she posted 2 vote counts shows she knew exactly what she was doing, but chose not to tell us.

I do think you discard Nienna too quickly, though.

Wait, wait... Lari already did post toDay? I thought she hadn't. And she didn't explain her vote? *sharpens knife*

The lack of analysis toDay is a bit worrisome. I see role speculation, lists with some (or without) comments, and a long summary, but only Kath and me actually analysed votes, deaths etc. Come on, it's Day3 already!

[Rikae]

You know there are no "only a" anythings in this game.

Leaving me alive is great - for my side - as you shall see toNight.

[Rikae]

Who needs analysis? No analysis, no analysis, la la lalala!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You know there are no "only a" anythings in this game.

Leaving me alive is great - for my side - as you shall see toNight.

Well we could kill you ..I am not certain you aren't a duck ...cobbler seems far too likely but it is quite certain that you are on the feathered side.... but I know the odds and I would sooner vote for a absolute certainty than a racing one...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Really Nienna? I don't even remember most of those colours being in a 100 pack crayon box, and have little idea what they mean.

They're oil paints.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Mith - Quinacridone Red – not sure really what to think of her. She makes sense and then she doesn’t make sense… but that could be just a posting requirement thing?...

Synthetic pigment? Synthetic pigment? And really a bit harsh with my colouring ..much more a Rose Madder kind of girl...

[Isabellkya]

Oi. As much as some of you are thinking and stating - I'm not confused. Well, I'm only confused at the how and why you think I'm confused.

I have to agree with Rikae on this one part.
After Lommy was lynched Duck, Mith looked mighty seerish.
So her not being attacked and protected by the Ranger - speaks some flavor of volumes. The Ranger didn't think her very seerish. The ducks didn't think her very seerish. Unless of course she is this newly uncloaked figure or what have you - and did the entire stunt-like vote yesterDay to get the Ducks to attack her.

Would of been quite funny that were true, and the bandwagon invite was not taken as much as it was.



X'd with Mith x2 and Gwath.

[Isabellkya]

Or acrylics.

[Gwathagor]

Suspicious
Rikae - most obviously suspicious player in the game. The fact that she seems to be trying to suspicion concerns me.
Lariren
Wilwarin
Neither One Nor The Other
Nilpaurion - I can't make heads or tails of his vague remarks earlier about being somebody or other, and so I think I'd better not try.
Nienna
Mithalwen - I could really go either way right now with Mith. Rikae has suggested that Mith's campaign against Lommy was wolf-on-wolf, and now the two of them are going at it. I need more time to make a decision - I want to see how their contest plays out.
Innocent
Isabellkya
Mac
Nogrod
Fea
Brinniel
Durelin
Kath

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

They're oil paints.

Or, um, some of the names are the same, anyway. Some of the others I haven't heard of or used.

[Nogrod]

Goodness Gracious me, you guys have posted toDay!

I've had a terrible day WW-wise but will soon be able to start reading this. Sadly I have an early call tomorrow so I'm not able to hang around to the deadline like yesterDay (Mith will be happy though... ).

[Kath]

Ah I remember - I was going to look at the Lommy voters having said that I think it likely that a wolf would end up voting in that bandwagon.

So the voters were:
Mith, Mac, Brinn, Fea, Gwath, Durelin, Nog, Nerwen.

Assuming three wolves, and that one wolf voted Gwath and the other was Lommy, there is probably one wolf in here. Assuming more than three wolves there may be two in here.

Mith - starts off with Lommy ringing her alarm bells a bit. Then some suspicion of Rikae, thinking she might be a Cobbler. Then says Lommy and Nienna are suspicious. Votes Lommy. Now, yes, it seems a very definite vote but for some reasoning her surety in the vote became stronger all Day despite the addition of another suspect and no extra reasoning. If she is a wolf as Rikae thinks this is a Mith I've never seen before.

Mac - starts with suspicion against Durelin and Nog, though the two seem to cancel out somewhat. Lommy originally in his unknown list not in his suspicious list which held Durelin and Nog. Feels better about Nog (why?), will get no support from Durelin and so chooses Lommy out of a pretty random list of four because he agrees with what Mith said about her which wasn't a great deal really and with what Gwath said. It feels like too little reasoning from a player like Mac.

Brinn - uncomfortable with wilwa and Lommy. Reiterates that. Votes Lommy. Well it's consistent but there isn't a huge amount behind it. Brinn this game seems to be holding back a lot, I don't know whether she's playing very carefully or is time limited or what but she doesn't feel like her usual innocent self.

Fea - I can't work out whether her 'less' list means she would trust those people less or more so, erm, could do with clarification there as Lommy was in that list. Votes Lommy, but I can't work out whether that's a continuation of a suspicion or a reversal of one. Either way some reasoning would have been really nice. If she is a wolf she could coast the whole game like this.

Gwath - his vote was clearly self preservation.

Durelin - mentions suspicion of Lommy and Mac from yesterDay and I think continued that early toDay. I think then continues that and adds suspicion of Nog, wilwa, Gwath and Nienna. Retains the same suspicions but Lari moves into the suspicious list as well. Reasoning for all. Says will vote for Lari or Lommy. Feels worse about Lari than Lommy. Votes Lommy because she already has votes. Pretty consistent, especially having come from the Day before as well.

Nog - seemed to lack suspicion of Lommy at the beginning. Didn't like Nienna, wilwa, Durelin or Brinn's votes from yesterDay. Clears Durelin and retains suspicion of Lommy, doesn't talk about the others. Some suspicion of Brinn. Whole list of people he wouldn't mind lynching; Gwath, Lommy, Fea, Brinn, wilwa, Nienna. Votes Lommy because he is out of options for actually getting people lynched.

Nerwen - suspicion of Gwath, Lommy, Mac, Mith, Rikae, Durelin, Nog. Deciding between Gwath and Lommy. Chooses Lommy because she feels worse. Apparently cross posted with a Lommy vote but it would still have been clear that Lommy was dead without her I think.

Going to post this and then have a think.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Suspicious
Rikae - most obviously suspicious player in the game. The fact that she seems to be trying to suspicion concerns me.
Lariren
Wilwarin
Neither One Nor The Other
Nilpaurion - I can't make heads or tails of his vague remarks earlier about being somebody or other, and so I think I'd better not try.
Nienna
Mithalwen - I could really go either way right now with Mith. Rikae has suggested that Mith's campaign against Lommy was wolf-on-wolf, and now the two of them are going at it. I need more time to make a decision - I want to see how their contest plays out.
Innocent
Isabellkya
Mac
Nogrod
Fea
Brinniel
Durelin
Kath

Gwath, I know there is little point in saying "wolf on wolf" isn't my style because of this games parameters but the fact is that it would be rather bold and unwise so early in the game knowing that my continual survival would look rather odd.

Rikae has pretty well admitted that she isn't for the village and that we aren't on the same side.

All I ask is that I am not lynched while I am still delivering ducks for the village. I can't prove I am not bluffing but even if it were a bluff why not profit from it while you can? I hope you see the sense in that.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(Mith will be happy though... ).

Happy? You expect me to be happy? Pfft... but given how ungrateful people are ... I may go treebeardish.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Gwath, I know there is little point in saying "wolf on wolf" isn't my style because of this games parameters but the fact is that it would be rather bold and unwise so early in the game knowing that my continual survival would look rather odd.

Rikae has pretty well admitted that she isn't for the village and that we aren't on the same side.

All I ask is that I am not lynched while I am still delivering ducks for the village. I can't prove I am not bluffing but even if it were a bluff why not profit from it while you can? I hope you see the sense in that.

I am inclined to trust you, but I am also going to reserve my judgment as long as I can do so safely.