WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[mormegil]

Well done dear Nightingale, I believe this to be a very good start indeed. Now Nilp's death was a bit of a surprise as he generally isn't lynched the first day and an even greater surprise was to find out his guilt. Now granted I thought there was a chance but I wasn't certain. What I'd like to do is gather together the collection of quotes as to what everybody said, or didn't say, about Nilp yesterday. He obviously left no traces . It will be in chronological order.

Originally Posted by Kath

Ah I see Nilp has arrived!

Originally Posted by SpM

I also think Nilp's self-vote to be extremely unhelpful. It tallies with his regular suicidal approach, and so tells us nothing. And he knows by now that few are likely to vote for him for it, precisely because it is his standard behaviour. Unhelpful, unenlightening and, in my view, decidedly suspicious. As matters stand, I may just vote for him, precisely because of that.

Originally Posted by Anguirel talking about SpM's last quote

I disagree, as a matter of fact. Were you to vote for him, Master Scarecrow, that would be traditional...and the traditional outcome would be his innocence. I think Nilp probably has too much respect for his customs to perjure them...

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

3. I find Nilp's self-vote annoying. Does he actually become more helpful if he survives Day 1? If so, leave him. If not, get rid of him. (This goes back to point 2.)

Mith simply mentions his self vote in passing but doesn't comment on it in post #58

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nilp has made only a self-vote.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

OK I am disregarding for now anyone who hasn't posted a lot or at all eg Nilp, Lote, Elu, Sleepy, Jenny, Glirdan.

Originally Posted by SpM

I mentioned my suspicions of Nilp and his self-vote earler, and they hold.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now Nilp is generally unhelpful on Day 1 and if his desire is to die I may encourage it though he may not be a duck I think it's possible. How are we to know if he continually votes for himself, and as was pointed out, would do so this time to avoid suspicious.

Originally Posted by Valier commenting on my above quote

I agree on this point. How, oh how, will we ever know when he is a bad guy? It makes me leary. I am so unsure who to vote for yet, but the day is still young (for me anyways) So I will wait till way later before I commit to a vote.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I am veering towards Nilp - as tradition or no, I don't approve of suicide and find it singularly unhelpful under the current circumstances. It is also a good mask to hide behind.

Originally Posted by Lote22

I'm sorry I'm so late. This is the first chance I've gotten to come on. I've read through parts of what has happened and only one thing really popped out at me. Nilp's vote for himself. I think that's really weird.

So since this is sadly the only chance I'm going to get to come on tonight I'm going to vote now.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

This is the second vote for Nilp

Originally Posted by Cailin putting Nilp in the 'Clueless' category

Nilpaurion - he is so annoying. Truly now.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now the question is who? Nilp makes good cannon fodder but is it an easy way out? But then again he could be guilty. Nogrod, his death would at least slow down the speed of this discussion but he may also be guilty. I'm really fairly clueless right now so as to spread things out a bit.

I subsequently voted for Nogrod.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I've been pondering on the Nilp question and I think I'll give him another chance. After all, if he did break the tradition, that would look suspicious, too...

She votes for Glirdan in this same post.

Originally Posted by SpM

At the moment, my other main suspects are Nilp, for reasons stated earlier (although I am inclined to give him a chance and see how he acts tomorrow),

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Nilp: Voted for himself...seems to be standard operating procedure. Withholding judgment (or any sort of opinion, really) until tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

Busy day...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finally... I can finally go to sleep now but first I believe I must leave a vote. I'm afraid my absence today hasn't been to the liking of people but you must understand I was terribly busy and had much to do. Anyway, my random vote policy and more or less everything I've said is staple for all my games and its always brought suspicion on me, I don't find any reason to change at the moment.

In views of self-preservation-

++Nilpaurion Felagund

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I like to give the quiet people the benefit of the doubt on Day 1. Sometimes people just need to get into the swing of things. And who knows? Maybe if we let Nilp live, he'll be useful. If he pulls the same stunt tomorrow, I'll probably vote for him, and advocate his banishment from Werewolf. (People like that just take up space and make the game less fun. And if he is a Duck, I find it terribly unsporting and he should be ashamed of himself.) Also, this random vote thing has been Sleepy's deal for the past few games, therianthrope or not. Actually, in the games where he was the enemy he attempted helpfulness on Day 1. So if anything, I think this lowers him on the suspect list.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

9 people have voted, so that leaves 8 votes. Concievably, the lynch could go either way. I really don't want Nilp or Sleepy to die, since I'm curious as to what they'll do on Day 2. Especially Nilp. I know Sleepy will get better, and he has a legitimate excuse.

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Sleepy is just someone I'd rather lose than Nilp, who seems to prove very useful after day 1. Sleepy, if your regular way of playing regularly gets you lynched early and innocent, to me that's a reason for change.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I find Sleepy's sudden vote for Nilp as odd. I know the whole 'self-preservation arguement' so don't bother. However notice how it came immediately after he became tied with Nilp. Obviously Nilp is a person that would be easy to get lynched today so it does seem highly suspect to me.

Originally Posted by SpM

And I am not inclined to consider saving Nilp or Sleepy (and would not be even were I not suspicious of them myself). If they get lynched, it’s their own silly fault for random/suicidal voting.

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

++Sleepy. I don't think we can afford to get rid of Nilp day 1. The suicide thing is odd, but normal. I'd like to stay out of the whole Sleepy/Nilp thing, but not if I have to leave 2 hours before sundown. I'll see how things look tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Valier

It's hard to make a case for anyone on the first day,but out of all the lynchee's so far I find Nilp to be the most......ok well it always bugs me that he is so suicidal,and I always wonder about his innocence the whole game until he dies. So to put my mind at ease I shall vote for..

++Nilpaurion Felagund

Currently this is all that has been said.

Those who didn't mention Nilp at all are:

Spawn
Elu
Glirdan

Those who said little or nothing of any substance on the matter are:

Mithalwen
Nogrod
Kath
Cailin

Those who appeared to defend him beyond saying it's traditional are:

Anguirel
JennyHallu

Out of this list I find Cailin's comment to be the most odd but the other three weren't far behind. And out of the defenders JennyHallu seemed to be trying in earnest to save Nilp, while Anguirel was more or less pointing out that, for Nilp, the self-vote is a virtual requirement. Jenny actually voted for the runner up at a critical point

In regards to the three who didn't say anything, all three didn't post much so it's more difficult to gauge why they didn't.

Due to the voting I'm willing to think Valier innocent currently.

Sorry this is so long but I hope that you find it helpful.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, that was the second time ever (I think) when I've missed voting. I had troubles with computer access, sorry.

Wow, great job, Nightingale! First Duck is down, two to go, and we're still all here.


YesterDays votes were:

Nilp -> Nilp
Ang -> Kath
Mith -> spawn
Lote -> Nilp
Morm -> Nogrod
Lalaith -> Glirdan
Cailín -> Sleepy
Kath -> Sleepy
Sleepy -> Nilp
Sauce -> Mithalwen
Roa -> Glirdan
Valier -> Nilp

Didn't vote: Elu, Glirdan, Nogrod, spawn.


Now, Nilp certainly didn't leave any clues (not even anagrams ), so I went back to analyse other Day 1's posts, and a few things caught my attention. First of them was Glirdan's notion of Valier's "slip", which I found odd, so I took a look at him.



- Glirdan

#1: Promises to find the ducks for Diamond and suggests that we watch Sauce and spawn.
- Typical 1st post, I think. Accusations based on occupations are nothing unheard of. Oh, and by the way, I am an Orc, but a spider-loving one. -

#2: Apologises for making a double post and says that he'll be gone for a while.
- This phenomenon of informing about every time when one can't be in the village square (i.e. online) is funny. I don't think any of us expects everyone to be around 24 hours a Day. This doesn't concern just Glirdan, of course. -

#86: Says that he'll be gone soon and thinks he'll be back for the voting.

Defends himself against Sauce's accusation: "How hasty you are in trying to stoke up the village’s prejudices against us Orckind, Glirdan", and says that he won't trust Sauce before he's been proven innocent. Adds that he could violently defeat Sauce-orc. Also, he defends himself against Ang's accusation: "Glirdan the Ent is being oddly hasty. How curious. Perhaps he's no true Ent but, in fact, a foul (fowl?) webbed predator! Yet he is, after all, a fairly young Ent."
- Well, Glirdan said that he'll leave from the Village square. I think it's a bit funny that he used now (almost) all the time for defending himself although to me it seems that no-one has really even accused him. As far as I can interpret Sauce and Anguirel's words, their suspicions didn't seem very strong or serious. -

Points out a possible slip of Valier's and says that he'll keep an eye on her.
- I had to read the quote a few times before I understood what the "slip" was. When you look at the context, that Valier didn't like Diamond's poetry, the theory seems quite far-fetched. Perhaps he's a Duck who needed to present some suspicions to one direction or another so that people couldn't say that he's not participating enough, and because he couldn't really accuse anyone for Duckery being one himself, he had to come up with something like that. Perhaps he's an innocent who's eager to help, but just hadn't much to say that moment. -

In any case, I took a look at Valier's posts, too, if there had been something since sometimes the culprits just can't resist being witty that way, so...



- Valier

#7: Doesn't like that fact that Diamond is dead. "I can't say I cared much for her poetry, but this is unacceptable! I never wanted her dead." ~Valier
- That's the thing that made Glirdan suspect her. I think it pretty much looks like a normal 1st post. -

#49: Is angry because people talk so much. Says that she'll go reading the posts and will be back soon.
- Another post where she just lets people know that she is around. -

#52: Mentions Nogrod, Sauce, Roa and Anguirel and says that the first three are playing in normal manner and Ang usually gets killed early.
- So, what does she mean by saying that Ang doesn't often have a very long life-span in games? That if he's not toast soon, he must be a Duck? -

Says that analysis at this point are useless for her. Says that we should look at the quiet villagers and not lynch the loud ones.
- I find it funny that this suggestion comes from someone who has made only four posts of which two were just notes that she's around. Still, it's not a completely bad idea. If there are two equally suspicious villagers, I rather let the one live who contributes more. -

#54: Replies to Ang that she didn't mean with her comment that she'd be the one to kill him.
- As I said above, I'd like to know what she meant. -

#77: Agrees with morm that we can't know if Nilp is guilty or not if he votes for himself every time.

#116: Lists the votes. Says that she's unsure whom to vote, but votes for Nilp so that she doesn't have to wonder if he's guilty or not.
- When he cast her vote, Nilp had 3 votes, Sleepy had 2, and there was quite a bunch who had one vote each. He put Nilp in lead with two votes 35 minutes before the deadline when there were four people left who hadn't vote (and who in the end actually failed to vote). Based on the voting, I don't think that Valier is a Duck. I can't believe that the Ducks would sacrifice one of their own on the first Day just like that - even though I've lately seen some unbelievable voting schemes. -


More later.

[Nogrod]

A beautiful morning indeed!

And sorry everyone. I totally overslept yesterday (almost missed my work). I believe, I'm voting early from now on, just to be sure that I get to vote...

If it is of any interest, I would probably have voted for Elu yeasterday. My top annoyances were Elu, Nilp, Glirdy and Sleepy - because of their non-informative, non-participatory playing style. I know both Sleepy and Glirdy can be useful later on and probably wouldn't have voted for them. That would leave Nilp and Elu. Nilp I have naver played with, but have heard of his style (and have no idea, whether it would get better during the game). Elu I have played once with, and he was almost the same the entire game through.

Anyhow, had I woken early enough to vote, it still wouldn't have made any difference, as Nilp was to die anyhow.

------
Thanks Morm for your analysis on Nilp!

I think it might be helpful. What I think should be looked at too, are those mildly suspecting Nilp. Defending him could be more genuine than making a slight suspicion into his direction, and then being kind of backed up. So not pressing for his lynch (unwise, I suppose), but giving the appearance of suspecting him.

EDIT: X-posted with Spawn

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Points out a possible slip of Valier's and says that he'll keep an eye on her.
- I had to read the quote a few times before I understood what the "slip" was. When you look at the context, that Valier didn't like Diamond's poetry, the theory seems quite far-fetched.

= Valier
I don't like the looks of this at all! I can't say I cared much for her poetry,but this is unacceptable! I never wanted her dead.

I don't see Glirdy's pointing out of this weird at all - or based on a far-fetched theory. It's quite unsubstantial, as slips are, but could be seen as one revealing the position from which the player is looking at the game... I remember a wolf-Roa saying, that she has never been a wolf before...

[Anguirel]

You meaner beauties of the night,
That poorly satisfy our eyes
More by your number than your light;
You common people of the skies,
What are you when the sun shall rise?

You curious chanters of the wood,
That warble forth Dame Nature's lays,
Thinking your voices understood
By your weak accents; what's your praise
When Philomel her voice shall raise?

Or his voice, of course. Well done Nightingale!

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

- When he cast her vote, Nilp had 3 votes, Sleepy had 2, and there was quite a bunch who had one vote each. He put Nilp in lead with two votes 35 minutes before the deadline when there were four people left who hadn't vote (and who in the end actually failed to vote). Based on the voting, I don't think that Valier is a Duck. I can't believe that the Ducks would sacrifice one of their own on the first Day just like that - even though I've lately seen some unbelievable voting schemes. -
.

I, on the other hand, can believe that the Ducks would sacrifice one of their own like that. Particularly Valier. You see, my many-greats-uncle and Valier's many-greats aunt were wolves together a long time ago, and my dastardly uncle (would you believe it? I've had two dastardly uncles, it's very depressing) pulled exactly that trick on their fellow wolf. As a result, he was not suspected for an extremely long time.

I think Valier would be, in principle, quite capable of such a scheme and should not be considered a certain innocent.

However, she is not one of my major suspects. They remain fairly consistent...more on that anon...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I see my last post crossed with Morm. Nice summary, although I analysed Mith's posts and I don't know if her stance on Nilp's vote was of as little substance as in your opinion. However, it takes time to type, so I'll post that in a bit.

Another thing that seemed weird to me was Elu's behaviour. She seemed to be lurking around but said barely anything.


- Elu Ancalime

#56: Checks in. Says that she almost forgot our Village.

#108: Feels obliged to vote, but says that she'd rather not to because she doesn't have time to analyze and she's surprised that there's already reasonable discussions.
-- I would have been more surprised if there hadn't been any sensible talking going on. Analyzing is really time-consuming, yes, but with 108 replies in a thread, wouldn't it have been possible to vote based on a gut feeling then... Voting is a civic duty and privilege. A vote with any kind of a reason is better than none at all. Although I guess I should hush up since I failed to vote myself. --

#110: Thanks Valier and Roa for pointing out that she's visible.
-- 23 minutes after her previous post she comes to the thread to say this. In twenty minutes couldn't she form any kind of an opinion of the events of the Day? On Day 1 Elu posted thrice, but didn't comment the discussions or the actions of her fellow villagers in any way. I hope to hear more from her. --

edit: Cross-posted with everyone since my previous post.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Nogrod, I see your point, and Ang, I'm sorry to hear about your relatives. Of course, a bluff like that is possible. However, unlikely. By no means, Valier is not a proven innocent, but right now she isn't my top suspect either.

Now, the analysis of Mith, as I promised.


- Mithalwen

#19: Checks in. Says that she wouldn't automatically suspect those who raise issues and options because it's better to do that than lament the dead. Typical Day 1 chatting. "We have the added dynamic of the hawk and nightingale being in league as well" ~Mith
-- That's the quote Sauce picked in his post #22 by saying that 'in league' sounds sinister although a Duck would probably choose their words more carefully. I think Mith's post looked very normal 1st post. --

#20: Statistics. Lists those who haven't spoken yet, but doesn't hold much significance to the list due to timezones etc. Hopes to be more helpful later.
-- It has been only 9 hours since the sun rose and she's already making a list of people who haven't showed up, and then she says that the list doesn't mean anything. I don't see much point in this. To me it looks like something a Duck could do: they have to post something, but if they can't come up with anything reasonable to say, they have to make their presence and input clear by posting something seemingly helpful chattering... Also, what are we to see from this: "There are 7 non-ordos. So at least 2 must have posted already, statistically 4 is more likely... again that doesn't get us much further." ~Mith. --

#50: Defends herself because Roa put Mith on her suspect list saying that "she's not being her usually thoughtful self". "Give me a chance girl!!!!I did all I could in the time available. Now at least I have something to look at. And I refer you to this post ." ~Mith
-- There were the exclamation marks that I commented in my post #55. More about that later. --

#58: Wonders why Cailín said so early that she won't vote for Ang or spawn. Says it might be "a hint at giftedness or a duck-trick or a bluff or nothing."
-- Cailín explained that in her post #41. I don't know what made her to say that, but it's true that Ang and I have died early for a few times now. --

Says that Ang being the first one to start talking seriously speaks in his favour, but then again, she's fond of Mozart...
-- I didn't quite catch that. Anyway, the message of this seems to be that Anguirel might be a Duck and he might not. --

Says that there has been a lot of people stating the obvious including herself. Says that Nilp's vote is honourable if it's his only chance to speak toDay, but she won't necessarily be so tolerant in the future. Says that Sauce isn't acting as normally.
-- Slightly defends Nilp (who's a proven Duck) and says that Sauce, who incidentally wasn't as ready to let Nilp away with his self-vote as Mith (#22), isn't being himself. Interesting. --

#61: Answers spawn's remark that the use of four !-marks seems a bit snappish if someone puts her on their suspect list saying that the suspicion itself wasn't why she replied to her like that, but the reasons that Roa used annoyed her because Roa seemed to be clutching at straws. She adds that based on that remark, spawn seems to be grasping at straws, too.
-- In that same post Mith said that she doesn't expect everyone to remember that she said in the admin thread that she wouldn't have much time. However, she gets annoyed when that happens...

I said: "Mith, four exclamation marks if someone puts you on their suspect list? A little snappish, are we?" Later (#72) Mith says that I found her suspicious. Now, I wonder why Mith thinks that I find her suspicious because that quote of mine is the only time I talked about her on Day 1. It certainly doesn't seem like an accusation to me, but she took it as one. What is the reason? Is it that she knows that there would be reasons to accuse her rightly for Duckery and therefore is so swift to react? The last time I saw Mith this snappy, she had fangs.--

#64: Says that she's tired and she'll go home if no-one's talking. Asks if anyone has anything to say before she votes.

#72: Disregards all the silent people ie. Nilp, Lote, Elu, Sleepy, Jenny and Glirdan. Says that Lalaith and Cailín are being sensible, and Valier, morm and Nogrod seem like themselves, too.
Says that Ang is not worrying her, but he might still be a Duck.
-- Already the second time when she says that Ang might be a Duck or not. As revealing as it is, I wonder if there's some specific reason to say so instead of putting him into the 'sensible' or 'acting as usual' category. --

Says that Sauce and spawn are creeping her out since both of them would have rather hunted the Ducks than talked about Owl strategies and both found her suspicious for insufficient reasons.
-- As I said earlier, I think it's odd that she thinks we both find her suspicious based on the remarks we did. Sauce said that Mith could be a Duck or not. I explained my comment above. Gives a rather nervous impression of her. --

Forgives Roa because she suspected Sauce as well.
-- That must be a good reason. I just don't get it, but never mind. --

#74: Votes for spawn based on her post #12. Says that if someone has read the rules and is able to comment the Goose issue, they should know that the Ducks can't PM during Day. Therefore she must be a Duck.
-- Maybe it's easy to know if you're a Duck yourself, Mithduckwen. The rules said that during Night the Ducks choose one to kill. There was no mention concerning their Daytime activities, so I wanted to know if they can plot under our noses in bright daylight, too (since that has been the case in some previous villages).

"And is that really the biggest problem? Surely when someone who has been acting like a duck, turns out not to be a duck when they die, we can probably assume that the goose is dead?"~Mith
-- That makes absolutely no sense at all. Logically, we lynch people who act duckishly. According to you, if we lynch two innocents, both of them are Geese. And yes, I'm more worried about not knowing how many enemies there are left than not knowing if the Owl is still among us.

Now you might say that I'm suspicious of Mith.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Elu I have played once with, and he was almost the same the entire game through.

1) Is Elu a he? 2) Oh, so it's characteristic for him...

[Nogrod]

Fine work, Spawn! I'm beginning to understand, why people want to see your analysis - and why some creatures would not like to see them...

= Spawn
1) Is Elu a he? 2) Oh, so it's characteristic for him...

1) At least I (and others?) called Elu him (not Elohim... ) in the game I was with him. Don't remember him correcting it.
2) Well, at least in the game I was with him, he was about the way he was yesterday. And he was a surviving wolf as well - so very nasty tactics...

[Cailín]

Well done, Nightingale! This is good news.

I was absolutely shocked when we found out Nilp was an evil quack-duck yesterDay - I had not expected him to be anything but an ordinary villager. I especially think this makes our resident newbie Lote22 look trustworthy, and possibly Valier and Sleepy to a lesser extent (though Sleepy Duck might have voted for his fellow to save himself either way and Valier is - as mentioned by Ang - quite capable of playing a clever game). However, for now they are off my list.

Mormegil, your Nilp analysis is most helpful and I think that for the moment it is the most solid evidence we have. I also agree that yesterday's proceedings don't make me look so good, but there are many of us who traditionally just ignore Nilp on Day 1 to avoid much frustration and puzzlement.

I have little time right now, so I cannot make any solid cases, but there was one person who stood out to me in regards to Nilp, when I reread Day one's conversation. That person was Roa_Aoife. She expressed some annoyance with Nilp in a few posts and this quote I found especially noteworthy:

Originally Posted by Roa

And if he is a Duck, I find it terribly unsporting and he should be ashamed of himself

Maybe I am reading more into it than I should.

On a final note, I am most suspicious of those who mentioned Nilp barely or not at all, even though I am one of them myself.

[Cailín]

Adding to my previous post before I leave: wonderful analysis, Spawn. Especially your summary of Mith's posts got me thinking - I shall look at her posts myself when I am back fom class.

[Mithalwen]

I am here. On schedule. No doubt this is suspicious.

There is a difference between irritable and jumpy. Anyone who knows me , knows I am irritable. Some people I find particularly irritating. People for example who are puerile enough to think that counting punctuation marks is evidence whereas statistics are not. BTW Kath I am an accountant in real life - numbers are what I do. Even when I was more happily employed as a literature studentI would do a prosodic analysis of a poem to get my brain in gear before I tackled the substance. It is a habit, helpful if only to me.

Since English is one of the few things I feel I am good at, I also find it irritable when holes are picked in it. When by what I now regard to be inevitably imminent death, I am proved innocent, please remember how much time was wasted by such trivia and act accordingly. These have not been serious attempts to find the ducks. The duck was lynched helped by the blissful and refreshing innocence of Lote who is surely innocent. Sometimes I think too many of us have played too much.

While we are on the subject of English, I think Diamond's instructions were admirably clear. I still think it was a reasonable basis for a first day vote.

Roa I am finding irritating for her hypocrisy. In post 25 she says " I have moved Nogrod and SaucepanMan to the top of my list along with Mith". Then she comes back and says "I never said it was a high suspicion. I was just throwing things out, trying to get a bite. You bit quite well, I might add. I understand your current issues, so I'll let it go. Also, having worked with in wolfish behavior, I doubt you would be this jumpy if you really were a Duck. I'll let you slide today, but your look at Spawn seemed to be grasping at straws."

This is interesting on several levels. Firstly, surely top three of 16 is high in anyone's language. Especially on such slender reasoning. I really think I had been as helpful as I could be in a lunch time with not much more than the routine grief and characterisation posts to go on. 4 exclamation marks was genuine astonishment.

Then she parrots my use of clutching at straws and I think Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant's use of jumpy.

Since I know she is completely wrong, she is my top suspect now.

The Saucepan Man wasnts to know why I changed my mind about him. Well I thought laterally and decided "to hang fire". Others might want to do the same. Having read through again yesterday I have decided maybe he is "not so green as cabbage looking", as my mother would have said. Now that really is a bit of English that you might find needs explaining. I am going to have to go back to work v. soon. Try and open your minds - unless you are bird brained !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Might as well give someone something to do Beat that Orc boy

[Lalaith]

Yes, well done, Sir or Madame Nightingale. Good save.
So Nilp turned out to be guilty after all. He left so little trace, I wonder what can be learnt from those who voted for him.
Valier, Sleepy and Lote: I put them together because they all voted for Nilp the Duck. Of the three, I am definitely of the opinion that Lote is innocent. As for Valier, I’m interested in this betraying Duck theory - it had already occurred to me and now we're told there was a precendent. Sleepy too, voting in “self-preservation”…hmm. But I think it would be rather odd if both Ducks voted for their fellow.

As for the rest of the villagers, as Spawn is doing close textual analysis, I’ll stick to general impressions.
Mithalwen: yes, she’s being defensive, but that can be her way. Still, somewhat suspicious. Oh and pease fix those exclamations Mith, they've played havoc with the board!
Spawn: She seems helpful as ever, but yet…I’m just not feeling as comfortable with her as I often do. There's a certain, uncharacteristic lack of incisiveness...
SaucepanMan: he’s just making too much damn sense. I’m always scared of Saucie on principle, I’ve seen what he’s capable of.
Cailin: I find myself in agreement with her about a lot of things, so I am currently inclined to trust her.
Anguirel: He has been known to get a bit wacky, but seems quite to be playing it quite straight this time. Seems helpful.
Jenny: again, seems helpful. The defence of Nilp was perhaps a little OTT, I agree with Spawn there.
Mormegil: not as bloodthirsty as he sometimes is, and that Nilp analysis was very helpful. There is still a whiff of goosishness about him though, lingering from Day One.
Kath: that somewhat pointless rowing with Nogrod on Day One was rather distracting and therefore suspicious. But as she wasn’t well at the time, I’ll let it pass, she’s otherwise been helpful.
Nogrod, Roa: all that bickering on Day one was very distracting, and makes me suspicious. Both villagers have a reputation for being loudmouths, of course. I am I think more suspicious of Roa. She is my chief suspect at the moment.
Elu, Glirdan: both have been unhelpful so far. As I said yesterday, Glirdan’s accusations seem too spurious and therefore suspicious. I did think Elu was being rather too careless for a duck, but now Nogrod says he’s pulled that trick before, so I don’t know what to think.

[mormegil]

I realize that if she turns out to be guilty this puts me in a bad light but I have to say something.

There is a difference between irritable and jumpy. Anyone who knows me , knows I am irritable.

Feeling like one who knows Mith as well or better than anybody here I would agree with her on this point, ergo I don't find her behavior extremely odd, for her. Now if I were to see SpM behave this way red flags would be flying high, however from Mith it seems normal. She has a slight tendency to take things a bit too personal, this includes WW accusations and as she explained she does take pride in her english so I see nothing wrong with her snappiness. I really don't understand why we focused on 4 exclamation points.

Now there are other things that make Mith look moderately guilty but I don't hold with punctuations being a key indicator.

[Anguirel]

Oh dear. This day seems to be on the brink of sliding into Mith/Spawn duel to an even more serious extent than yesterday's Roa/Nogrod duel. That was a conflict of issues, but this is a tad more ad feminem-could be bitter.

Mith, do you have strong suspicions of anyone besides Spawn? It must be said that she's currently beating you on breadth of coverage.

I do not wish morm to escape scrutiny by virtue of his admittedly diligent surveyance of all our opinions on Nilp. Often werecreatures make sure they are the first to reach the evidence so that those too idle to view it directly will see it through were-tinted spectacles.

It is true to say that it's fascinating how many independent quarters Mith has drawn suspicion from. Saucie and Roa both felt her lightweight (though admittedly before waiting long to judge her-besides I trust neither of them). Kath felt her statistical approach an uncharacteristic angle, and even with Mith's accountancy in the picture I must admit that was in my mind too. Now dancing spawn has singled her out above other targets.

Mith's performance yesterday was hardly illuminating, but Lady Spawnowen's was still less so; as she pointed out herself, she failed to vote. However, she has produced a forceful case today that should be considered, and that struck many a reluctant chord in my brain.

Above either Spawn or Mith today in my mind are Roa and morm, both of whom I have accused countless times. Yesterday, bar post #46, I called morm a Goose. I now say Boo to that (vide Mith's signature) and declare him a full-feathered duck.

He fudged on Nilp yesterday, but did not include himself on the list of negligible Nilp-watchers, or any list at all. As it was not a suspicion ladder per se this is a rather evasive move.

He's also been, let's face it, pretty unhelpful with a slightly reasoned vote, until this morning, when the aid he brought was...well, similar in quality to Mith's statistics yesterday morning. A useful but scarcely enlightening task performed, that's all.

EDIT: The alleged signature of Mith's regarding Booing I referenced is either no more or belonged to someone else all the time. Sorry for confusion caused...

[Roa_Aoife]

Not much time- I have a final in an hour. Several things I'd like to say:

Yay, Nightingale! Nice job. Hopefully you can live long enough to tell us who was innocent.

About Nilp- I'm glad we caught a Duck, and all, but where was the fun in that? There was no chase, no excitement, nothing! It was little more than a fluke! I got into this game for the fun of it, and he just sucked it all out. Honestly, if that's the way you're going to play, then don't play. I DESPISE this style, and I think that anyone who uses it should just get out of the game (ie, Nilp, Elu, Gil-galad, etc). Time constraints are one thing, but this is just rediculous. If you have so little time, don't sign up. It isn't fair, it isn't fun, and it isn't "funny." I wasn't joking when I said I advocate banning you from the game. If you aren't going to play, then you shouldn't be allowed to waste space in the thread. [/rant]

Mith, you're mis-using the word "hypocritical." The word you're looking for is "contradictory," which my posts were not. My suspicion of you three was slightly above everyone else. How could it be more, at that stage of the day? Naturally, with you're continued over-reaction, I'm putting you a bit higher. Also, I did intentionally use your phrase, "grasping at straws," as a means of show your own hypocracy. Why so quick to accuse those who have only a mild suspicion of you? Paranoid that one might be the Owl and has dreamed of you? And what's with all the mellowdrama? You don't expect to survive the day? Why not? You were, at best, only mildly suspcious to the majority.

Right now I am continuing my suspicion of Glirdan, but I want to see more of him today. I know he's capable of much more than what he's shown us. I'd also like him to explain he rediculous "answers" to the suspicions layed against him.

Edit: Cross posted with Morm and Ang

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Roa

About Nilp- I'm glad we caught a Duck, and all, but where was the fun in that? There was no chase, no excitement, nothing! It was little more than a fluke! I got into this game for the fun of it, and he just sucked it all out. Honestly, if that's the way you're going to play, then don't play. I DESPISE this style, and I think that anyone who uses it should just get out of the game (ie, Nilp, Elu, Gil-galad, etc). Time constraints are one thing, but this is just rediculous. If you have so little time, don't sign up. It isn't fair, it isn't fun, and it isn't "funny." I wasn't joking when I said I advocate banning you from the game. If you aren't going to play, then you shouldn't be allowed to waste space in the thread. [/rant]

This is another thing, alas, that you and Nogrod have in common-you are both swift to judge other people's styles. You've never played with Nilp before. You experienced one day in which he was apparently fairly occupied. Pause before you launch into Demosthenes mode, old girl. People have their different ways of doing things, people have lives, etc etc. Nilp is one of the wittier Downers I know, dead duck or not, and I stand by that. There is also a major difference between Nilp and Gil or Wayne. Not that they should be banned either. Banning is always a restriction. When you're restricting things in something meant to be entertaining, you can slip through the net into the ocean of pettiness.

Originally Posted by Roa

Mith, you're mis-using the word "hypocritical." The word you're looking for is "contradictory," which my posts were not. My suspicion of you three was slightly above everyone else. How could it be more, at that stage of the day? Naturally, with you're continued over-reaction, I'm putting you a bit higher. Also, I did intentionally use your phrase, "grasping at straws," as a means of show your own hypocracy.

And you're misusing the word "hypocrisy". It's not spelt "hypocracy", italicised or not. Now I now how Kath feels in her Grammar-Termagant role...

If "hypocracy" existed, it would be something, I suppose, to do with the state of transcending ruling.

((The one I really love is hippocracy-rule by horses. Our school's supposedly most intellectual magazine-a rival of the one I help edit-once ran a vast headline of "American Hippocracy In Iraq". I saw visions of the US army forcing the helpless Iraqi citizenry to elect horses as consuls in the manner of Caligula...))

Where you are sensible is suggesting we glance as Glirdan-the struggles of the colossi shouldn't let the shrimps shelter...

[Roa_Aoife]

Nilp is one of the wittier Downers I know, dead duck or not, and I stand by that.

I am well aware of Nilp's intelligence, which is what makes this so much more frustrating. I know he is able to do much more than what he's done, time contraints or no. And if this is such a regular occurance that most just roll their eyes over it, then it really isn't about time contraints. The game isn't fun when people don't play. He cheated us out of a decent game for his own amusement and inside joke. (And no, I'm not saying he actually cheated at the game.) That's shameful. Maybe banning is taking it too far, but that's not a playing style, it's a cop-out. Thank you from correcting my spelling, though. That's one of the words that always trips me up.

Alright, now I really have to go before my History professor fails me for not showing up for the final.

[Sleepy Ranger]

I've got a lot of catching up to do. I just skimmed through the thread and some things here and there have caught my attention. Give me some time to read through and then I'll leave my thoughts.

[Kath]

Now I now how Kath feels in her Grammar-Termagant role...

Kath can't help it

Now, all this arguing is not in any way beneficial to us in our search for the remaining Ducks. We had a bit of luck last Night, lets not let it go to waste toDay.

Roa - voting for himself is Nilp's way of playing and whether you like it or not he's been doing it for a very long time now and will most likely continue to. He does this first Day every game because he has a similar opinion to Form over Day 1's - namely that they are useless. I disagree with this, as apparently do you, but that's how he feels and that is unlikely to change. In the end it actually helped us that we had some newbies unused to this, and he got caught out. However, stressing about it now is pointless and I am a little worried that you seem to be so caught up with that, as it does take attention away from finding the Ducks. Please can we consider this argument ended, or take it up again after the game has finished, so we can get back to the important matters.

Thanks go to morm for his going back and finding quotes by and about Nilp, that's a long and nasty job! Having looked at it, it was Sleepy that seemed the most odd.

Anyway, my random vote policy and more or less everything I've said is staple for all my games and its always brought suspicion on me, I don't find any reason to change at the moment.

And then, in the very next line, he says that his vote is in the interest of self-preservation. Yes, that's a pretty good reason for a vote, but he contradicts himself in the space of two sentences.

Also from that, Roa is worrying me. She seems overly aggressive and inclined to take offence at everything. When talking of Nilp she says he should be killed off for his unhelpful playing style (his self-voting habit), but gives Sleepy's equally unhelpful style (random voting) the benefit of the doubt. I wonder if this is an attempt to distance herself from a fellow Duck who she felt was behaving in a way unfitting to the role.

Mith is still being extremely defensive though this is actually quite normal for her. Any accusation against her is always strongly rebutted. She did reply to my questioning her about her use of statistics and fairly so, though I still believe her use of them to be odd.

Ang - would you please explain why you believe morm to be the Goose. You may have done so yesterDay (and I believe you did) but I'm still not at 100% and would appreciate a quick recap.

[Anguirel]

Alright. But actually I've now progressed to thinking morm an outright duck.

Firstly, in morm's initial post, he said something about wanting to hire protection. This seems not only selfish, but distinctly odd, seeing as protection does exist in this game, though it's certainly not for hire...

Then there came the moment when morm introduced his "What a Goose could do" plan, effectively saying we would have to be careful and treat any Owl revelations as possible impostures. To that I replied-

Originally Posted by me

Incidentally, morm's back on form, but I still suspect him. He has made a possibility that the Goose will employ this ruse into a certainty. He has ensured that the Owl will not be believed till they deliver results. Hmm.

Saucie later arrived and knocked some very obvious holes that I'd missed in morm's argument-cementing in my mind the possibility that morm was deliberately trying to discredit the Owl.

For the reasons I stated, I upgraded my suspicion of morm

Originally Posted by me

He fudged on Nilp yesterday, but did not include himself on the list of negligible Nilp-watchers, or any list at all. As it was not a suspicion ladder per se this is a rather evasive move. He's also been, let's face it, pretty unhelpful with a slightly reasoned vote, until this morning, when the aid he brought was...well, similar in quality to Mith's statistics yesterday morning. A useful but scarcely enlightening task performed, that's all.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ha! Like I said, Nilp has only himself to blame.

Apologies to one and all for my late arrival. As I explained here in the admin thread, crow scaring can be a full-time occupation. Today, I was required to attend our Annual Scarecrow Conference and so was not able to join the village moot until now.

Although it’s rather late in the Day, I will nevertheless offer up my traditional record of the preceeding Day’s votes. Spawn provided a list earlier, but I like to look at the state of the voting at the time that each vote was cast.

1. Nilp for Nilp (Nilp-1)
2. Ang for Kath (Nilp-1, Kath-1)
3. Mith for spawn (Nilp-1, Kath-1, spawn-1)
4. Lote for Nilp (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1)
5. Morm for Nogrod (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1)
6. Lalaith for Glirdan (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1)
7. Cailín for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-1)
8. Kath for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2)
9. Sleepy for Nilp (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2)
10. SpM for Mith (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2, Mith-1)
11. Roa for Glirdan (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-2, Mith-1)
12. Valier for Nilp (Nilp-4, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-2, Mith-1)

Did not vote: Elu, Glirdan, Nogrod, spawn.

All but Elu have explained their failure to vote yesterday.

Like Ang and others, I do not discount the possibility of a Duck-on-Duck vote yesterday. I doubt that Lote’s vote would fall into this category and so think her most likely innocent. But a Duckish Valier could have sacrificed a fellow Duck to gain credibility. I find it unlikely that a Duck would do this on Day 1, but it’s still a possibility.

Sleepy’s vote for Nilp does not tell us much. Whether innocent or a Duck, he would most likely have voted for Nilp at that stage to save himself.

Difficult to tell much from the other votes. Kath’s vote for Sleepy and Roa’s vote for Glirdan could be seen as Duckish attempts to save Nilp, but they don’t mean much on their own.

I have only had a chance to briefly review today’s proceedings so far and will come back with further thoughts when I have had an opportunity to consider further. For now, I wanted to ask what I think is a pretty important question.

Can the Nightingale (well done, by the way ) protect the same person two or more nights running?

As far as I can see, there’s nothing about this in the game rules. My question, by the way, is directed primarily to the Diamoddess. I ask it here because, depending on the answer, there may be issues which will merit serious consideration.

[Cailín]

All right people. Just breathe.

I am finding this whole Nilp - is - an - evil - unsupporting - quacking - player a bit distracting. He died and paid for his crimes, his folly, his wings and his suicidal tendencies. So why bother? If you want revenge, flood his PM box.

Through all this arguing it is hard for a person like me to remain analytical and sensible. Mithalwen: I do not know you well at all, of course, so I cannot say whether your irritation is really in character. Of course, I am not going to suspect you based on punctuation or anything - rather your half-hearted case against Spawn and the Nilp issue.

I am far from convinced that Mith is guilty, though. Far from. Mostly because she reminds me of what I must force myself not to do when I am under fire, regardless of my role in the village.

I never trust Dancing Spawn in any game -not sure why, possibly because she never trusts me - but as long as I do not have any clear evidence against her, I would not vote for her either. I find nothing really different or odd about it. Surely it is natural to want to analyse those who vote against you - if indeed you know yourself to be innocent?

As for Roa, I do not understand why she finds Nilp's behaviour so upsetting unless Nilp was one of her fellow ducks. But would she then be so forward in her rants? Possibly. Loudmouths generally get away with yelling.

Anguirel - I find nothing odd about Mormegil's first post, though I can see why his Goose plan would incriminate him.

I am waiting to hear more from certain people: Glirdan, Sleepy, Elu and some other quiet ones. Also, where is our resident Sauce-Orc? It is still early, of course.

To end in a gut-feeling way that is not helpful to anyone in particular: Anguirel might be a Goose, no? Somehow, I get that impression.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Sleepy is just someone I'd rather lose than Nilp, who seems to prove very useful after day 1. Sleepy, if your regular way of playing regularly gets you lynched early and innocent, to me that's a reason for change.

If people can adjust themselves to Nilpaurion's playing style, I fail to see why they can't to mine.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

I find Sleepy's sudden vote for Nilp as odd. I know the whole 'self-preservation arguement' so don't bother. However notice how it came immediately after he became tied with Nilp. Obviously Nilp is a person that would be easy to get lynched today so it does seem highly suspect to me.

From what I saw, several people were leaving Nilpaurion alone stating that it was just his playing style and that he'd be helpful the next day. I've no wishes to die, I did what I had to and note that I survived by a single vote.

Originally Posted by Kath

And then, in the very next line, he says that his vote is in the interest of self-preservation. Yes, that's a pretty good reason for a vote, but he contradicts himself in the space of two sentences.

Yes, just because I said I'd most probably vote random means I have to vote random no matter what? What if the seer came out with the name of a duck? Yes, thats a perfectly good reason to vote random... I saw self-preservation as a perfectly sane reason to go against my policy! Whoop-dee-doo, if that makes me a duck in public opinion... I shall withold any further comments, but here it seems you're just trying to bring up a moot point against me.

Originally Posted by Kath

but gives Sleepy's equally unhelpful style (random voting) the benefit of the doubt. I wonder if this is an attempt to distance herself from a fellow Duck who she felt was behaving in a way unfitting to the role.

People seem to have mis-understood me entirely, its always been most probably a random vote. I'm always lazy on Day 1, I don't like jumping into arguements right off the bat, I'd much rather sink into the game at my own pace. In my opinion people are being to asking of everything or just don't like me for some reason.

Heres my opinions on the people-

Innocent

Anguirel - I'm inclined to believe he is innocent.
Lote22 - She seems innocent enough.
Valier - Would a duck really have voted for Nilp? Had she voted for me instead I'm certain nobody would have seen anything wrong in that.
Nogrod - Nogrod is well, Nogrod. I just can't get myself to suspect him at the moment.

Not Sure

Saucepan Man - I don't really know what to make of Saucey.
Mormegil - Though I'm inclined to believe hes innocent as someone said, too easy to mis-trust.
Cailín - Don't know what to make of her, she seems sensible enough.
Roa_Aoife - Again, inclined to believe shes innocent but she can be a tricky lady.
Glirdan - Waiting to see more from him.
Elu Ancalime - See Glirdan.
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant - She could be dangerous and I'm not really sure what to do with her now.
Lalaith - Don't see much wrong with her.
Kath - I'm not sure about her, but she seems to be a trifle bit more suspicious than anyone else on this list.

Ducks

Mithalwen - Shes been overly defensive and the use of all those exclamation marks just annoys me.
JennyHallu - She would make a very dangerous duck. Also, seems not to mind Nilpaurion because its his playing style yet says I should change mine.

[The Saucepan Man]

I need to correct the list that I posted earlier. I was working off spawn's list, which omitted JennyHallu's vote.

1. Nilp for Nilp (Nilp-1)
2. Ang for Kath (Nilp-1, Kath-1)
3. Mith for spawn (Nilp-1, Kath-1, spawn-1)
4. Lote for Nilp (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1)
5. Morm for Nogrod (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1)
6. Lalaith for Glirdan (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1)
7. Cailín for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-1)
8. Kath for Sleepy (Nilp-2, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2)
9. Sleepy for Nilp (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2)
10. SpM for Mith (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-2, Mith-1)
11. Jenny for Sleepy (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-1, Sleepy-3, Mith-1)
12. Roa for Glirdan (Nilp-3, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-3, Mith-1)
13. Valier for Nilp (Nilp-4, Kath-1, spawn-1, Nogrod-1, Glirdan-2, Sleepy-3, Mith-1)

Did not vote: Elu, Glirdan, Nogrod, spawn.

Jenny's vote too might be regarded as an attempt to save Nilp, assuming that Sleepy is innocent. Interesting that spawn omitted it from her earlier list (although I doubt a Duck would draw attention both to herself and the person she omitted like that).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Those who didn't mention Nilp at all are:
Spawn
Elu
Glirdan
Those who said little or nothing of any substance on the matter are:
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Kath
Cailin
Those who appeared to defend him beyond saying it's traditional are:
Anguirel
JennyHallu
Out of this list I find Cailin's comment to be the most odd but the other three weren't far behind. And out of the defenders JennyHallu seemed to be trying in earnest to save Nilp, while Anguirel was more or less pointing out that, for Nilp, the self-vote is a virtual requirement. Jenny actually voted for the runner up at a critical point
In regards to the three who didn't say anything, all three didn't post much so it's more difficult to gauge why they didn't.
Due to the voting I'm willing to think Valier innocent currently.

There are a few funny things in here.

First of all. So skillful player as he seemingly is (I've only played once with him before this), from his analysis, he seems to totally forget those who have had something against Nilp! Kind of wanting us to focus on these others? There might be some Nilp-voters in yesterday's tally - case Valier comes to mind. But even more, I am worried about those, who just suspected Nilp duckishly-lightly enough to secure their backs (not voting, not straightly accusing, but still "suspecting" or "keeping an eye"...)

Secondly. His point about the four people he (rigthly) called "saying little or nothing of any substance", that:

Out of this list I find Cailin's comment to be the most odd but the other three weren't far behind.

If you really look at the comments - so nicely given to us by Morm (#121), you may judge by yourselves. There seems to be nothing odd in them - at least I can't see them as odd, and would very much like to hear Morms points concerning their oddity.

And if Ang is right with the suspicion about Morm, then I must say our Owl-talk was not in vain after all...

I'll try to do some re-reading next.

EDIT: X-posted with quite a few...

[Kath]

Now then, as I state in all games my Day 1 vote will be random unless the seer decides to reveal themself today or unless its a very convincing case against someone.

Sleepy, this was your explanation yesterDay. The Seer did not reveal and there was no case against anyone.

Then you said:

Anyway, my random vote policy and more or less everything I've said is staple for all my games and its always brought suspicion on me, I don't find any reason to change at the moment.

Followed by a vote for a different reason! It was this contradiction that made me look at you. Had you not bothered to repeat the bit about always voting randomly I wouldn't have thought anything of it, but after you so specifically mentioned it, not following that looks a little odd.

Ang - thanks for that recap. I'll think over it for a bit.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

To end in a gut-feeling way that is not helpful to anyone in particular: Anguirel might be a Goose, no? Somehow, I get that impression.

Possibly. A Goose might be eager to accuse others of Goosiness so as better to conceal him/her-self. But I am beginning to wonder whether, absent any obviously Goose-like behaviour, there is much point in trying to spot the Goose. Once at least one innocent has died, we are unlikely to know for sure whether the Goose is still among us. Also, it is a common Cobleresque tactic to wait until later in the game, when they are more likely to be able to cause more havoc, and so try to merge in and simply appear as an ordinary innocent in the early stages.

Admittedly, suspicions of Goosiness may lead us to a find a Duck instead (and I can see some force in the arguments that have led Anguirel to reassess mormegil as a possible Duck). But perhaps we should just concentrate on looking for suspicious behaviour generally. Even if (on any particular Day) this doesn't lead us to find a Duck, we might (albeit unknowingly) kill the Goose instead.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Can the Nightingale (well done, by the way ) protect the same person two or more nights running?

No. The Nightingale can protect the same person any number of times but not on consecutive nights. And also the Nightingale may not protect itself.

[Lalaith]

The Goose does not of course know any more than the rest of us who s/he is supposed to be helping, so I suppose at the moment the Goose would just concentrate on being generally difficult. At the moment I can think of a few candidates...

But I agree, I would much rather worry about Ducks.

On the subject of which, I am most interested in Roa's rage...I've heard of flogging a dead horse, but kicking a dead duck... hmmm. Particularly as she seems more interested in the alleged shortcomings of the dead duck, than in finding live ones. Frustration, perhaps?

[Anguirel]

But accusing people of being a Goose insults their posting style and clarity and so is far more fun...as I think Cailin may just have discovered...

Of course Goose-inquisitions are pretty pointless in themselves, Saucie, but if en passant we find Goose-suspect behaviour why not out it? And as you say it could-I think has in morm's case-(don't gloat though Nogrod!) lead, have led to a ducking.

Nogrod, your exposition of the weakness in morm's researches was rather clearer than mine and exceedingly helpful-I am inclined to pass you as innocent for now.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Oh dear. This day seems to be on the brink of sliding into Mith/Spawn duel to an even more serious extent than yesterday's Roa/Nogrod duel.

I'd rather have reasoned analyses from everyone than any kind of a duel (am I imagining, or is it going pretty heated between you and morm, too).

Originally Posted by Ang

He's also been, let's face it, pretty unhelpful with a slightly reasoned vote, until this morning, when the aid he brought was...well, similar in quality to Mith's statistics yesterday morning. A useful but scarcely enlightening task performed, that's all.

Your case against morm is interesting.

I went back to analyse him myself.


- mormegil

#6 Laments his own death in the future, Day 1 chatting.
- Seems typical 1st post for morm. -

#30 Says that killing Ducks isn't lofty enough for his brain. Doesn't like the Owl talk much, but talks about possible Goose scenarios. Clarifies the rules (ie. we don't see the deceaseds' roles if they were the Goose or a Gifted). Says that if he were the Goose, he'd step forward and say that he's the Owl.
Says that both Kath and Sauce should be lynched.
- This is mostly an insightful post with the example and all, but it looks like he'd be giving advice for the Goose on how to act... -

#51 Ang criticized morm's Goose post, so morm replies to it by saying: "All I did was point out something in advance to the owl so that he/she wouldn't fall for a ploy that may be employed by the goose." He also says that he understands why he looks suspicious.
- Well, that's a good answer. However, his previous post might still be considered suspicious and he understands it himself, splendid. -

#95 Agrees with Kath that if he were a Duck, he'd not kill the talkative people early, but wonders why he is speculating it. Says that he has some problems with net connection, so he has to vote. Wonders if killing Nilp would be an "easy way out", but says that he might be guilty. Says that killing Nogrod would slow down the speed of the discussions, but he might be guilty, too. Says that he's fairly clueless and votes for Nogrod.
- Another 'if I were a baddie' scenario. Hmm, are you? One could have quite a few accusations similar to Glirdan's observation about Valier's slip, but otherwise this seems quite normal behaviour for morm. -

#106 Finds Sleepy's vote for Nilp odd and it makes Sleepy suspicious. Says that Roa makes a good point about Nogrod that in last games "he's been toning down his agression. Strange, did he just decide to drop his (albeit relatively) subdued manner in the passion of his argument? Or is he just being a bold Duck?" ~Roa
Morm's opinion is that Nogrod is more likely to be a bold Duck.

#121 Says that Nilp's death and guilt were surprises although he had his suspicions. Collects quotes of Nilp by everyone and lists the votes for Nilp between them in chronological order. Finds Cailín's comment the oddest and mentiones that Ang and Jenny defended Nilp, and Jenny voted for someone else "at a critical point". Due to voting thinks that Valier is innocent.
- I just realised that I hadn't listed Jenny's vote for Sleepy to my list of the votes. She voted between Sauce and Roa.

Anyway, I wonder why morm didn't list Mith's words about Nilp; "For now I will take this [Nilp's self-vote] as an honourable route if it is the only participation possible. I don't know if he makes a habit of this but I shall not necessarily be always so lenient. Non-participation makes life so difficult for the true villagers and often plays into the hands of the "three"." ~Mith

Also, morm lists a lot of quotes, but doesn't really comment them. It looks helpful, but anyone could just do a list of quotes. The lack of personal thoughts about the gathered information seems duckish since morm is very well capable of doing analyses... -

#133 Says that he realises that if Mith turns out to be guilty it will look bad for him, but he defends Mith by saying that he didn't see anything unusual in Mith's snappishness. Says that he doesn't understand why we concentrate on four exclamation marks, but says that there are other things that make her look moderately guilty.
- Interesting that after I've explained my post about the ! marks and posted my theory about Mith which had little to do with exclamation marks, morm brings them to the discussion again. Also, this is the second time when he says that he understands why people find him suspicious. He defends Mith, then admits that she looks somewhat suspicious, then talks about punctuations again and how they aren't a good reason. If you read my case, you are aware that I don't suspect Mith because of them. -

Uh, I need a break now. I don't know what to think of this all, but I'll keep an eye on him, that's for sure.


ps. Roa, I don't think that criticizing dead villagers' playing styles is very relevant right now. It's Nilp's tradition to vote himself on Day 1, like it or not. If you've read recent WW games past the first Day, I don't think you have a reason to complain.

edit: Cross-posted with everyone since #145.

[Valier]

Wow way to go nightinggale!! I can't believe Nilp actually was a duck! I voted for him, because like I said I am never sure if this time he will be a baddie and my gut was right this time.

For all the people who think I am a cunning duck ie:Ang,Cailin etc... Thanks for the vote of confidence, but I assure you I am just a cunning villager..

I understand Roa's thoughts on Nilp I too find this type of play annoying, I know Nilp is way smarter than he plays in ww games.

Well he's gone now, so lets not dwell on it. Lets keep our luck up and get another Duck.

I will read through the posts and see what I can come up with. I'll Be back in a bit, with hopefully something tangible.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Kath

Followed by a vote for a different reason! It was this contradiction that made me look at you. Had you not bothered to repeat the bit about always voting randomly I wouldn't have thought anything of it, but after you so specifically mentioned it, not following that looks a little odd.

I still fail to see your side of this matter. It was a special circumstance as the seer statement was supposed to eximplify, which in itself was meant as a sort of joke. The seer revealing themself on Day 1? Yeah right...

And how about I say my vote for Nilp was done at random because I pulled a name out of a hat and thats what I got, does that make you happy?

[Mithalwen]

I don't want to fight anyone. I am hypersensitive, I know - it is the reason I took a long break from WW. If you attack me, I will defend myself. I want to do my best to catch the remaining ducks. Lynching me will not help you do this. You can always kill me later but I am pretty sure the Ducks will save you the trouble so you might as well consider a few other options.

I am not a duck. You really will do better to look elsewhere. I can only prove this absolutely by dying but that really won't be in your favour. We( ie the village) are in a strong position here. Don't blow it by focussing on my personality flaws. They are many but dishonesty is not one of them. Wearing my heart on my sleeve is.

I cannot stay to the end. In fact I have about 2.5 hours. I have a lot of reading to do. I have wasted a lot of time defending myself which is quite exasperating.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I'd rather have reasoned analyses from everyone than any kind of a duel (am I imagining, or is it going pretty heated between you and morm, too).

A wee bit...though to give the chap his due he himself hasn't had time to respond to my more serious accusations yet, and I've been the aggressor throughout. Make of that what you will...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't want to fight anyone. I am hypersensitive, I know - it is the reason I took a long break from WW. If you attack me, I will defend myself. I want to do my best to catch the remaining ducks. Lynching me will not help you do this.

Which is why I suggest complete removal of direct attacks on people, whatever the reason but I believe this is a matter for elsewhere.

[Kath]

Which is why I suggest complete removal of direct attacks on people, whatever the reason but I believe this is a matter for elsewhere.

Excuse me? How else are we going to find out if they are guilty or not!

And how about I say my vote for Nilp was done at random because I pulled a name out of a hat and thats what I got, does that make you happy?

No, it wouldn't. But I won't argue anymore. We'll just have to agree to differ.

[Anguirel]

Excuse me? How else are we going to find out if they are guilty or not!

Quite, Kath. You're proving a breath of sanity this game-I wonder why on earth I voted for you yesterday evening...no hard feelings I hope...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Kath

Excuse me? How else are we going to find out if they are guilty or not!

As I said its a matter for elsewhere, I'll fill you in on all the details elsewhere even though that comment/question of yours strikes me as rude. Now back to finding the ducks.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

As I said its a matter for elsewhere, I'll fill you in on all the details elsewhere even though that comment/question of yours strikes me as rude. Now back to finding the ducks.

It's not a matter for elsewhere. It's a question of strategy. We are not going to find ducks by shyly questioning each other about points of rules ettiquette and tickling each other with pads of cotton wool.