WWJ III - Nan Qualinmerë: Death Wish Valley

[Mithalwen]

I do have to go now... Kath since mine was a stir-up vote for Valier.. I will cooperate and vote again lest I don't return ,which can be part of a double lynch if it is the will of the village:

++ Wayne.

Please consider all I have commented on though ye who will have more information.... I really feel the wolves have had an easy ride....

[Valesse]

I'm glad someone thinks these things up so I don't have to.

Each suggestion, A B and C, look to be to be the 'right' course of action, Kath, but each has its flaws... nothing in the actual making-of-the-suggestion bit, but the fact that someone's gotta die and theres a glaring chance it won't be a wolfie.

-With A we'll have to see who's picked off during the night.
-With B possibly only one wolf is killed... or an innocent.
-With C we run the risk of both being innocent and 2/3 out of 6 doesn't sound so hot of chances for the village. Our list of the dead is already longer than the list of our living!

We've done a lot of focusing... too much. Lets not keep Wayne and Gandalf on the forefronts of our minds, please, but let us keep mention in them. I don't doubt that by the end of the day one of the two will be lynched, but there are others in Mejis still who could have replaced their teeth with fangs.

Its a frightening prospect... but what if these beasts are picking at random just to confuse us?

[Kath]

Valesse I understand your concerns but there will be a flaw in any plan because we don't know who the wolves are, and said wolves may have a hand in designing or ruining any such plans.

You say we should stop concentrating on Wayne and Gandalf because there may be others here that are wolves and that's true. However, the two of them aren't helpful and won't help us catch these other fanged beasts. My proposal is to get rid of them (and desperately hope that at least one is a wolf) so that those who are left are ones that make posts and give us something at least to analyse.

Also, what did you mean by:

But what if these beasts are picking at random just to confuse us?

[Valesse]

I meant that if they are picking their nightly kills at random... it wouldn't in the least ways protecting themselves by ridding Mejis of those that have suspected them, but by leading us to believe that they have done so. Thats a kind of vague description of what I thought... my mind is a confusing place that does tumbles well after I've stopped.

Also: I didn't mean we should stop discussing the threat of Gandalf and Wayne entirely, but keep an open mind about other villagers.

[Kath]

It's an idea Valesse but I think, looking at the past few nights kills, that they have bumped off those they considered a threat or was the obvious choice.

Night 1 ~ Eomer
Night 2 ~ Fea
Night 3 ~ Abercrombie

They were very lucky with their second night's kill in that Fea was the Hunter and took tar with her but these kills certainly don't look random to me. I think they're trying to save their own skins rather than set any one up, especially after we got Lommy on Day 1.

[Valesse]

With that said- and assuming the wolves are taking down the experianced players- you, Mith, and Ang have a little extra something to worry about. Though that is assuming that you are not the wolves yourselves and/or we catch the brood.

I can see why you'd want a double lynching, but I feel more comfortable with a single lynch... knowing that at least there is one more person between a village victory and one for the wolf one gives my mind a bit more ease.

[Gandalf_the _white]

sorry as i've said before my absence is due to the lack of computer time i get
i'm sorry if you find this suspicious but its the god honest truth. Also another reason why no-one else seems to be on at the same time as me is because i live in England so my timing is different

[Kath]

I understand your reluctance Valesse, a double lynch is something I very rarely advocate, in fact I usually fight against it! All I am thinking though is that if one or both is still alive tomorrow they will be the ones we concentrate on. Even if both are innocent the wolves are hardly likely to kill one of them toNight when we can run around dealing with them all the next day.

Also, what you said about me, Mith and Ang being in danger is true. However, we will just have to risk that and hope what we say before death benefits the village. Still, with Mith especially, if she isn't dead soon I think I will begin to suspect that she is a wolf because there has been no real suspicion against her, and with major players it is usaully this alone that keeps them alive.

[Kath]

Excuse me Gandalf but I live in England!

[Gandalf_the _white]

doh sorry i just can't get at the computer all the time and i think i am right in believing that everyone else has almost 24/7 access

[Kath]

That's as may be Gandalf, but it doesn't stop you being a wolf, if a quiet one!

[Valesse]

Yes, while you're still here please give us some insight as to why you have been voting for Wayne exclusively?

[Gandalf_the _white]

oh no!!! I think the mistake that Shelob and Gorin made was actually stating that they were innocent this makes people believe that they are desperate to convince people that they were indeed innocent

[Gandalf_the _white]

without looking through the posts i think i've only voted once and that was because he found me suspicious for the smae reason as i found him

[Kath]

Ok then, lets look at those few posts we have by Wayne and Gandalf and see if we can glean anything from them.

Wayne:
Day 1:
Usual vague first post – regret over the killing of the mods, says he won’t leave til all the wolves are dead.
Votes for Fea saying it’s due to her ‘strange vote’ though we don’t know whether he was referring to her vote for Eomer or herself.

Day 2:
Actually some thought it seems, says the wolves wouldn’t vote for someone and then kill them the same Night. Odd sentence about meaning to vote for Lommy, when he’d already voted for Fea. Does a list (with no explanation) putting Gandalf at the top and himself at the bottom. Tar is second down and Fea third – could be (if her is a wolf) that there was some argument as to which would be killed that Night.

i dont trust anyone.i dont care what he said but i go by my gut.i wanted to change my vote and abrodcrobie sorry your before me. gandalf has been acting strange to strange and with all the things going on i will vote.

I challenge anyone to make sense of that! But followed up with a vote for Gandalf, perhaps in retaliation.

Day 3:
Oh hell, he wrote ordo in bolded letters. Wayne usually tells the truth with this so there actually seems no point in lynching him. He only went back and did this today though, so it could be to save his own skin. Still suspects Gandalf due to voting for those who vote for him.


Gandalf:
Day 1:
Nothing

Day 2:
Explains his absence from the Day before, no computer access and lack of knowledge that we had started.
Continually repeats this excuse, and states it as a reason for Wayne’s suspicion of him. Also makes a point of mentioning his newbie status – perhaps to stop us thinking he even could be a wolf.
Votes for Wayne, I think due to his lack of posting.

Day 3:
Worried about Valesse. Doesn’t want to bandwagon but is tempted to vote Garin anyway.
Repeats the lack of access excuse, claims not to know anything about werewolf games and repeats reasoning for voting for him.
No vote it seems.

Day 4:
Yet another mention of the reason for a lack of posting. Somehow decides living in England is another reason.
Refuses to explain why he’s innocent (though he wasn’t actually asked to do this) for fear it would make people see him as too defensive.

Now, to be completely honest I still want to lynch both of them. Wayne did put ordo in a past post, which means he was online today, but rather than make a post he simply went back and edited (something that is not actually allowed) which means I'm still suspicious of him. Gandalf I might give the benefit of the doubt too, but he has put just too much emphasis on his reasons for being away rather than being any help.

Also, if anyone could do an analysis of Mith that would be great.

My vote will likely to go Wayne soon.

[Gandalf_the _white]

i'm sorry i can't be of much help but due to my "newbie status" as you put it i don't spot things as easily as the rest of you and it usually takes someone posting it for me to notice it
I can see why suspicions are arroused about me and i must admit if i was in your shoes i'd be suspicious aswell

[Gandalf_the _white]

and the thing about being scared of valesse was harmless fun because she said she was dreaming of me

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, if anyone could do an analysis of Mith that would be great.

Coming right up! Anyone else want an analysis of a specific person while I'm at it?

[Roa_Aoife]

Mith Analysis
Day 1
First post is a safe post, as expected. Suspicious of Eomer. Works with Valesse in pointing suspicion at Fea and Valier (seems to be a simple farce) Suggests choosing Fea. First insulted by Eomer’s suggestion of confusion, then points out her confusion. Votes for Eonwe.

Day 2
Apologizes for Eonwe, points suspicion again at Fea. Suggests tar’s innocence. Suggests innocence of Shelob and Garin. Votes for Fea.

Day 3
Accuses Kath of bandwagoning. Suspicion of Garin. Suggests Innocence of Ang and Roa. Continues suspicion of Wayne and Garin. Votes for Gandalf. Laments what we know will happen to Garin after Crombie’s reveal.

Day 4
States desire to get rid of Cursed. Restates innocence of Ang and Roa, begins to suspect Kath again. Suspicion of Wayne and Gandalf. Votes Valier. Retracts vote. Votes Wayne – time troubles.

[Kath]

Thanks for that Roa, what do you think that shows? And what do you think of the Wayne/Gandalf double lynch idea?

In fact, what does anyone think of it? Come on people! You must have 3 seconds to spare!

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm not for a double lynch, becuase of our odds. Maybe yesterday, but today is a no.

As for Mith, she has several behaviors that she sticks to, doggedly one might say. With others, she jumps around, finding what's best. Her vote for Eonwe makes her stand out, but then she apologizes while supporting herself. She suggest as much innocense as suspicion, but this may be a way of flattering people.

Over all, I'd say she's iffy, but it's not clear cut.

[Kath]

Thanks Roa, nice to see someone else alive out there!

That's exactly what I feel about Mith. I'm not ready to fully suspect her, and now of course that I've brought her up she won't be killed by the wolves which isn't helpful. Still, I hope she's innnocent, she's always an asset when she is. Anyway I'll give her plenty of time to convince me otherwise and I certainly won't vote for her.

Speaking of which, if you don't agree with a double lynch Roa, who would you suggest we lynch?

And if you're still offering to do analyses, one on Anguirel would be greatly appreciated.

[Valier]

Hi everyone! I've been gone all day and I have just read through the posts.
There have been some good analyses so far.

I am not sure about the double lynch, but it could open up alot of windows into who are the real wolves,(If it isn't the two we lynch)
But that's pretty risky, seeing as how we have lost so many innocents already.

Being a newbie as well, I don't really know how to pick up on as many things as some of the rest of you, But I have some time now if anyone wants help with analysis' or any thing. If my brain has some coaxing I usually can pick up on some hints that may give the wolves away.

[Roa_Aoife]

Valier, I'm a newbie too, so if you'de like to help with analysis, I'm actaully planning to analyze everyone who's left. If you wouldn't mind analyzing me, since I can't do that myself objectively, I'd appreciate it. Also, Kath, if you don't mind. Then we'll have the three most experianced players. After I finish Ang, I'm moving onto you. You can take Valier if you don't mind.

[Kath]

Nice to see you Valier. I agree the double lynch is risky. My concern is that if we don't get rid of these two we will continue to be hung up on them tomorrow.

If we lynched Wayne today and Gandalf tomorrow and the wolves kill an innocent in the Night that makes 3 innocents dead if Wayne and Gandalf are not wolves.

If we lynch them both today and the wolves kill an innocent in the night that again makes 3 innocents dead (same circumstances pending) BUT that means tomorrow we have more chance of getting a wolf and the wolves have one less night to kill.

Wait, that doesn't really make sense. Erm, ok if we do a double lynch then the wolves have one kill, tonight. If we lynch them on separate days that means the wolves have two nights to kill.

If anyone doesn't get this I'm sorry. It makes such sense in my head but I can't explain it! Basically it is almost to our advantage to do the double.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ang Analysis
Day 1
Starts with nothing post. Explains that he will be absent later in the day. Votes early for Gandalf. Changes vote to Thin (violently). Then suggests that Thin is the seer.

Day 2
Very determined in Shelob’s guilt. Tries to turn Garin and Shelob on each other. Defends against Shelob’s accusations. Suggests Shelob is a target. Votes Kath. Admits that tar’s defense of Shelob is strong. Retracts Kath vote, votes Roa.

Day 3
Expresses regret in not defending Shelob better, and voting for Roa. Suggests that Kath’s accusations of Garin are faulty. Votes Garin. Mentions that if Garin is guilty, Kath is innocent. Suspects Wayne and Gandalf. Suggests Wayne is innocent. Restates suspicion of Kath. Suspects Valesse. Suggests that votes stay the same after Crombie’s reveal in order to keep game play normal. Asks mods to end day early.

Day 4
Silence thus far.

[Kath]

Tries to turn Garin and Shelob on each other.

Now that's interesting. Would you mind expanding on that point Roa?

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay. Ang has a lot of inconsistent behavior. It could be a wolf trying to jump around, it could be an innocent that isn't afraid to change his mind. He throws a lot of looks your way Kath, which makes me wonder if that's why you requested this analysis. His vote for Thin seems to exonerate him.

[Kath]

Well that depends Roa, when did Ang vote for Lommy? If he was one of the first then yes it may exonerate him, but if it was later then no, he may have hopped onto the bandwagon to avoid suspicion. Any idea which it was?

[Gandalf_the _white]

kath i can see what your thinking with the double lynch idea (even if it does involve me!! lol ) and it makes sense except for the fact of if me and wayne are both innocent then you are losing two innocents at once and the wolves then have more chance of swinging the next vote

[Valier]

Analysis on Roa

Day 1
- Late comer
- Sternly addresses the early voters for Eomer
- Corrects Tar on voting order
- Suspects Eomer could be a wolf
- Comments on people forming relationships
- Accuses Fea of wolfish behavior
- Lashes out at Fea for being snippy
- Votes for Shelob

Day2
-First poster of the day
- Says she knew Eomer was innocent yesterday?
- Defends her vote for Shelob
- Says everyone should vote for who they think is a wolf,not who everyone else thinks is a wolf
- Votes for Shelob

Day3
- Second to post
- Says Tar seemed to shine a light on Garin
- Suspects Garin
- Tells Kath and other accusers to look at post #161
- Says she's voting for Garin
- Tells Garin hes rude and out of line
- Suggests looking at who Garin hasn't drawn attention to
- Finds pattern involving Garin and Wayne
- Attacks Garin again
-Says to kill Garin now and get the day over with
- Votes for Wayne
Day 4(so far)
- Does lots of analysis

That's all I got so far I haven't put anything together yet so I'll read what you guys have done.

[Roa_Aoife]

During Day 2, Ang actually suggested that the two accused analyze each other. And he was the 2 to vote for Thin.

Now then:
Valier Analysis
Day 1
Starts by pointing at tar. Copies Roa’s post after three votes fro Eomer, then says she didn’t see the other Eomer votes. Votes Wayne.

Day 2
Mentions loss of ranger, and hopes “the seer and the hunter make good choices.” Suggests danger to the seer. Throws suspicion at Fea. Suggests Shelob’s guilt. Votes Shelob.

Day 3
Suspicious of Wayne and Gandalf. Votes Wayne, promises explanation.

Day 4
Agrees to do analysis.

[Kath]

Roa what are you saying exactly about Valier? That she quoted something out of a post done after the Eomer votes and then said she didn't see them?

And Gandalf, I understand the concerns, it's why I hate double lynches. I don't want to do it, but right now it seems the best option.

[Gandalf_the _white]

ohhh all this analysis is hurting my head!!!

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Kath

If anyone doesn't get this I'm sorry. It makes such sense in my head but I can't explain it! Basically it is almost to our advantage to do the double

After read this ...a few times (Giggle) I actually do think I get it. I think it may be a good idea to lynch both...but then again......it's still scary because we've lost so many already...and there is still a cursed villager out there remember.
What if one of two are the cursid? That would really "Bite" (sorry bout the pun)

[Roa_Aoife]

Thanks, Valier. Don't forget the paragraph analysis.

She's in enough to not draw attention through silence. She's out enough to not draw attention by over vocalization. Her Day 2 activities are very suspicious. However, we really have very little on her.

EDIT: Yes Kath, that's exactly what I'm saying.

[Gandalf_the _white]

like i said kath i can see it from your side but, well with the insight of one of the people being lynched, i see one flaw (that i don't want to mention, when the last two people said it (draws finger across throat))

[Valier]

Roa what are you saying exactly about Valier? That she quoted something out of a post done after the Eomer votes and then said she didn't see them?

I can clear this up.
I said I agreed with Roa about the bandwagoning,but then looking at her post made me realize that voting for wayne,was sort of jumping on a bandwagon,because everyones votes were for someone different...

Does that make any sense?

[Gandalf_the _white]

of course i can't rule out the fact that i mite be the cursed....

[Valesse]

Let us perhaps chose only one of the silent pair?

I really don't know who's a wolf right now or not. There are plenty of people in my mind that could be, but perhaps its only my imagination playing tricks on me. Right now I'm cross examining the observances because thats the kind of paranoid pshycopath I am.

And suddenly I am confused... Gandalf hasn't vanished yet? Its near or past midnight in England isn't it? What happened to limited time?