Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Shelob]

"A separate time a separate place
The glass reflects a single race
Fighting for self preservation
Each a single dying nation"
~Caladre (aka. me!)



"There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch. " ~The Phantom

Phantom...how good are you with numbers?

The score is currently werewolves 3 villagers 9...if you lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, yourself and I (8 people) and you either get no werewovles or only 1 then the score will be

Werewolves 3 Villagers 1 (if no werewolves in that group)

or

Werewolves 2 Villagers 2 (if only 1 werewolf)

in either case Werewovles win...and if you don't mean that this would be an uber-double-lynching (which is rather how I read it esp. given "I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.") then so long as the werewolves don't kill anyone on that list they're fine 'cause we'll only lynch people from the list...

...actually...isn't that idea rather too close to the "short-list" plan suggested yesterday for comfort?


As to grouping me with "the quiet group" I do appologise for that...Yesterday I knew I had SAT testing in the morning but thought I would have the afternoon free..then my parents sprang "family time" on me so I got dragged shopping and had to watch a movie (they thought it would 'de-stress' me...instead it 'distressed' me)...as for to day I thought I would only be gone a few hours in the afternoon for a graduation party (not mine...so don't congratulate me) but what my parents failed to tell me was that it took up half the day...again my sorrows from this point onward I should be a more active voice in our discussions.

Finally, as to whom I know are under suspicion, and whom I myself suspect, I think that the argument against Kuru has some merit...however given that he says
"Go ahead and lynch me and find out!"
I rather suspect he's telling the truth...at this point in the game it would be very risky for a werewolf to risk being voluntarily hung...the odds are still bad enough that the werewovles as a whole don't really gain much by sacrificing one of their own...

I can't agree or disagree with the arguments saying something to the effect of "The Phantom has been acting uncharacteristically therefore he's a werewolf"...I don't know what's 'characteristic' for the Phantom...however he has been seeming to try and keep up the levels of confusion...and, as I described above, his "Lynch them all" plan, unless you know you've got more than one werewolf, will fail miserable...if he's a werewolf all he had to do was choose suspicous people and make sure that he was the only werewolf...probably an easy task at this point--given all the suspicions flying around...

As to Saucepan Man and Mormegil, they both seem to be rather focused on one person without forgetting to give thought to everyone...not on it's own particularly suspicous behavour and so while I don't remove them from lists I've not yet seen enough to convince me either way...

For Fordim I stated what I thought earlier in the day and have yet seen nothing to really warrant chaning my thoughts...he's still suspicous and deserves watching, but I don't feel a pressing need to see him hung.

Firefoot I've yet to create an opinion on...but, today at least, all Firefoot's suggestions are in terms of potential werewolf stragegy rather than reasons for thinking Person A or Person B to be suspicious, which could be suspicious had Firefoot not stated an opinion with mormegil and against the Phantom...hmm, incase you misread that I'm not trying to say "Firefoot is against the Phantom therefore Firefoot is not a werewolf" I'm just saying that the before described behavour would have been more suspicious if Firefoot had never stated an opinion...

As to everyone else (myself included for the fairness of those not-me reading this: ie. You all) I feel that basing suspicion solely on the fact that we've not spoken isn't really fair...I explained myself above and suspect that everyone else has similar reasons...I know Oddwen mentioned an inability to get to a computer today, and I saw elsewhere that Azaelia mentioned SATs in reference to yesterday (but since I saw her on today [and subsequently advised her to go to invisible] I wonder why we've yet to hear from her)...So everyone on this list I'm willing to give a chance to explain their absense before truely judging...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The Quibble: a picture is hung upon the wall, a person is hanged by the neck until dead.

The Plea: Shelob and Firefoot are quite correct, I think, in agitating for more discussion of developing a strategy rather than assessing blame. I've tried it...are there any other ideas about how we can co-ordinate our actions to put the wolves at anything like a disadvantage?

A thought has occurred to me: perhaps we could focus more on making arguments about whom we think is innocent rather than guilty? That will prevent the finger-pointing and defensiveness. For my part, I am almost certain that Firefoot is innocent, insofar as she voted for me yesterday: seeing as I am attracting so much attention, I am one of the Werewolves' best friends at the moment: the last thing they wanted is to have me dead (that would have made their gambit of killing tgwbs rather pointless). I also lean toward Mormegil and Oddwen as being innocent, insofar as they voted for The Phantom using logic very much like that which led me to vote for Saucy. (Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt for either TP or SpM, both of whom have gone a long way to allaying my suspicions of them this day.)

Anyone else out there think there are villagers they can trust?

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

(Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt

But I think it is a backway to group people. However, for the good of the village, I will say who I think is innocent. First and foremost ME, I think you may be innocent Fordim, at least I think your intentions are. That doesn't mean I think who are opposed to you are wolves, just misguided.

So you see, the danger in this plea, for myself, I now have put myself in Fordim's 'group' therefore I must be a wolf. And had I said 'nea' to this recent idea of pulling together against wolves, then I must be a wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have reviewed the proceedings to date and what has it told me? Not a lot I am sad to say. The Werewolves are doing a good job at merging in.

But I have gleaned a few possible insights (and I put them no higher than that).

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him. Secondly, I don’t (on reflection) go with the “double bluff” theory concerning TGWBS’s murder. If Fordim is a Werewolf, TGWBS’s death clearly puts him in the frame. Yes, a Fordim Werewolf might have bargained for the likelihood that it seems too obvious a “frame up”, but that would still carry a risk for him (ie that it would be seen as a “double bluff”). Wouldn’t it be more sensible for the Werewolves to frame Fordim, on the basis that he is already a lynching suspect and then point out the “double bluff” theory? And even if Fordim is not lynched, there are enough other non-Werewolf lynching suspects (myself, for example) to give them ample opportunity to try to ensure that one of their own is not taken. Framing Fordim carries no real risks for the Werewolves. It might get him lynched, but no matter if it does not. Whereas a Werewolf Fordim relying on TGWBS's death being seen as too obvious a frame-up is putting himself at quite considerable risk.

So, who pointed out the “double bluff” theory, thus implicating Fordim? Well, I did (and I have since reconsidered), but the first to do so were Kuru and Shelob.

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations. These are the suspects who I consider may be Werewolves attempting to “fly under the radar”.

The first is Kuru. He pretty much followed the “under the radar” strategy on Day 1, but ended up edging me towards Evisse and voting for her himself. He has been more vocal in his accusations today, but all that he has really done is attempt to direct the voting towards Fordim and me, both prime lynching suspects for today. Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said) I now strongly suspect Fordim to be. To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

The second is Shelob. On the first day, she gave quite strong support to Fordim’s “Seer dream” proposal, and then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected! There was no transition whatsoever between the two contrasting positions. Other than that, the only accusation that she has made has been directed at Fordim. And, in her last statement, she vaguely supports Kuru.

The third is Holbytlass. She offered no strong opinions yesterday, and ended up voting for Azaelia on the “flip of a coin“. The only evidence against Azaelia is that she has not contributed much. Not nearly sufficient evidence to warrant a vote, in my view. And, having yesterday voted for Azaelia on the basis that she has been quiet, Holbytlass today said, quite angrily:

I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything.

Anyone notice an inconsistency there?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence (other than the fact that morm voted for him). He has also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect. That makes him a suspicious character. But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

Mormegil I have no basis upon which to accuse. He has done nothing to arouse my suspicions, while nevertheless being quite forthright in his opinions (ie not "flying under the radar"). And I am reasonably convinced of Firefoot’s innocence, largely because her thoughts seem to be going in the same direction as mine.

That leaves Azaelia and Oddwen, who I have no handle on (unsurprisingly, given that they have been pretty silent throughout). What can I say? One or both of them might be Werewolves, but I have no real basis for accusing them.

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

I agree, Holbytlass. I have been away all day, and it's difficult to keep up with this discussion, everything moves too fast.

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

It could be one strategy to be quiet and hope that no one notices you... But what is, perhaps, more suspicious to me is talking TOO much, TOO fast, and trying to, perhaps draw attention away from oneself or the matter at hand in the hopes that everyone else would be distracted.

So, I'm not going to try to draw attention from myself. I may be low-key, but I'm certainly not evasive. Go ahead, lynch me...but I will tell you now that just because my life has been busy these past few days doesn't mean that I am a werewolf.

Because my particular schedule, the time that the DAY ends is particularly inconvenient, and I probably won't have time to say much more before then...
So I will be either very brave, or very foolish (most likely the latter) and cast my vote now for
++ Phantom because I don't like how he deflects from himself and put suspicion on myself and others who may not have been given the opportunity to post. And now I know that I am pretty much dead...but I have the feeling that I would die very soon anyway.

[Holbytlass]

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM. I DID get all bothered about being called a wolf on the basis of my being silent. It WAS hipocritical of me. I admit I took the easy (and cowardly) way out of yesterday's vote. I didn't hide that fact, I said it was a coin-flip.
I suppose my trying to be diplomatic has brought suspicion on me. I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent. And yes, I said more stuff, too.
I don't know what to say, other than the tide has turned to those who 'follow'
even Kuru said about looking to those in second...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

If I get lynched some of you are going to have very red faces and I'd urge you to look closely at those who were most vocal against me. But even more than them, look at the people who were secondary in it not necessarily the prime movers.

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

[Firefoot]

Shelob, I think you were taking phantom's "There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch." a great deal more seriously than it was meant to be taken. At any rate, it made me laugh a little.

Anyway.

I too am leaning toward Fordim's innocence, for all that I voted for him yesterday, for similar reasons as SpM posted above. I would expect a werewolf to do a lot more hedging than Fordim has been doing.

I am also fairly convinced of the innocence of mormegil and SpM, as neither of them have really given me any reason to suspect them.

I am unsure about TORE, phantom, Shelob, Holbytlass, and Kuru. TORE, I have felt somewhat suspicious about but have failed to see conclusive evidence in either direction. phantom's activities are just confusing me; they don't seem to be normal, phatom-like posts, especially his largely unreasoned accusation of mormegil. Shelob, I have failed to see a lot of evidence for or against, and would be more willing to accept if she didn't seem to be 'slipping under the radar' so much. Holbytlass, I am fairly willing to accept her defense, though her voting of Azaelia did seem rather random. She is also getting very defensive, though perhaps rightfully so, without doing a whole lot of speculating on her own part. Kuru seems to me to either be a very confused villager or a werewolf who is drawing too much attention to himself. In his post before his latest, he outlined Fordim and SpM, whose innocence I am fairly convinced of, and myself, of whose innocence I am certain, to be on his suspicious list. But I'm not sure, and I am not quite ready to lynch any of these people.

My suspicions still lie heavily on SoN, for reasons which I have already stated. Nothing has yet been said to prove me otherwise.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy. Unlike Azaelia who had not posted at all until just now, Oddwen actually did show up to vote. She even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries. If she really is an innocent villager, this doesn't seem like the greatest plan; obviously you would want to make the best possible choice. But a werewolf would already know who is innocent and know their targets, therefore by getting a decent summary s/he would know who to vote for without looking conspicuous. (If this were true of Oddwen, it would argue phantom's innocence.)

[Kuruharan]

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations.

That is because you are my primary suspect. We should only lynch one per day. Why cause distraction by naming other names?

Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said)

Odd. So do I!

To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

Yes, accusing someone who is innocent is perfect werewolf strategy! You have got that part down.

The phantom has...also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect.

Funny. I think this is why he may be in the clear (maybe).

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

You are going to be feeling soooo silly if you get me lynched. I'm beginning to suspect that your buddies have already written you off as lost after today and have told you to try and get rid of me anyway as they stay in cover (or at least try to).

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

It is a virtual certainty that I am going to vote against the Saucepan Man, but I'm going to wait just a little bit to see if anything else interesting turns up.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

[Shelob]

"Shelob, I think you were taking phantom's "There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch." a great deal more seriously than it was meant to be taken. At any rate, it made me laugh a little." ~Firefoot

Perhaps...I just read it and immediately thought something to the effect of "MERG! Meh-Meh...GAHH!!"...translated into English that would be roughly equal to "Why in the world would ANYONE suggest this!?! It's so DUMB!"...given that reaction can you really blame me...also I'm infamous for missing jokes, even with things like body language and giant "THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...



Saucepan Man, I can understand your reasoning just wish that the references you make were more accurate...

...For startes does saying "I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots." really counts as "quite strong support"...
...secondly you said
"then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected"
What I did was use your usefull list as a summary of behavours so that I could post before being dragged off...what I actually said was
"Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them"
...I disagreed with one, and so didn't want to use it, and didn't mind the other, so didn't mind using it...Evisse disliked both but didn't mind using both...it was that behaour that I found suspicious...not the fact that she supported the idea...

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

Oh. Thank you for clearing that up. I see now what you mean. Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

[the phantom]

They both sound very pompous

Me? Pompous? No way.

Remember the sig I used to have- "the phantom has posted. This thread is now important."?

It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them

You missed the point of my comment about not voting for me on day one. It was sort of a joke. Evisse voted for me on day one and got lynched. In the last coughgameahem, Fordy voted for me on day one and got lynched. I wasn't trying to scare people- I was noting what I saw as a humorous coincidence.

There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch.

...."THIS IS A JOKE" signs to hlep me...

It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by->

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence

I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

And everyone notice that Azaelia doesn't have time to post much, but certainly has the time to pop up and cast a vote for an innocent (me).

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all, I feel the need to not only re-explain my absence (to make sure everyone caught it), but also defend myself. Some suspicions have been cast in the direction of those who have been inactive so I must say that I am sorry that I was not able to post sooner, but I did give notice on the village message board (werewolf 1) that I wouldn’t be able to post much if any today.
Now, for the defending I think I need to do.

Originally posted by Firefoot:

Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

Although Firefoot partially bases her suspicion of SoN on his seemingly evidence-less accusation of me, she does go on to say that she at least somewhat suspects Shelob & I. But I must correct you. At first I was for part of Fordim’s plan (as were almost all of the villagers), but I changed my standing once I noticed the stupendous errors of my reasoning (look back at my comments on this matter in the past to see more about this). So to say that I voted for Evisse and did not oppose Fordim’s plan is not right. What is right is that I voted for Evisse, which I will now explain. My gut feeling was most certainly not Evisse, I was going to vote for the phantom, but allowed my head to talk me out of it until it was to late & I found myself forced to vote for Evisse because the vote count was 4 for Evisse and 3 for phantom. Obviously that problem with this vote count is that any werewolf could swoop in at the last second & lynch two villagers – this I obviously could not be responsible for letting happen. After waiting to see if I could catch a wolf trying to tie the vote, I then cast my vote at the last possible second for Evisse. Unfortunately, she turned out to be the very thing that we had spent most of our debate time arguing about how to protect (the seer, or course!). Fortunately, my vote was not the deciding factor, so I didn’t feel as badly for her as I would have if I would’ve broken a tie between the phantom & her. Four to three would’ve gotten her hung just as badly if I had not voted at all.

Both originally posted by SpM:

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

A good observation, but you have left out one possibility. Put simply it is this: Since I was sure of neither phantom’s guilt, nor Evisse’s, I was trying to make sure that two innocent villagers did not get lynched at the same time. Using this logic (which was my motivation for what I did), if phantom turns out to be guilty, that doesn’t at all mean that I am guilty as well.

[Oddwen]

As I have said before, I didn't expect to get online today...I'm lucky that I am now.

Firefoot- that day I was rushed knowing that I couldn't be online for days, and I feared not getting a vote in at all, so I voted for the one that seemed best to me at the time. And the phantom's actions are unlike the phantom that I'm used to seeing, (little of that though there is) - though now that I've had a chance to review the discussions at length, there may be a reason for it. Deliberately going against what people think he would do, perhaps, to draw attention to himself - or away.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

She (Oddwen) even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries.

No I didn't.

Holbytlass's sudden outburst and furry jests seem reminiscient of a Thrasher who comes to mind...

Kuru seems very confident that he's going to be lynched, and that we're going to be sorry. Though from what I garner SpM seems the only one highly suspicious of him, correct me if I'm wrong.

Gah, only a few minutes left to me online. I'll try to put more thoughts into order tomorrow morning, but before I go I just wanted to say:
Though honest absenteeism isn't a crime, lurking is the thing we should be worried about.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM ... I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent.

Well, I didn't see your comments on Fordim before I posted. I must admit that they alleviate my suspicions of you somewhat.

But I remain very suspicious of those who seem reluctant to make their thoughts on who might be the Werewolves known. And you and Shelob most certainly fall into that category. Shelob really does concern me, though, with a number of posts which, despite their length, do little do advance our search for the Werwolves.

But Kuru seems determined to weedle his way to the top of my suspect list at the moment. Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add), but methinks he doth protest his innocence rather too much ...

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you) and then, today, posted and then did not post again for a while? That's all it seems to consist of as far as I can see.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

by->

I didn't accuse Morm so much as I accused both you and Morm together, Saucy. My theory (which I even called "crazy") did have a bit of reasoning behind it. What was it? The reasoning was that you and Morm's finger pointing somehow reminded me of what I did to Nim last time.

Phantom I would ask you a better way to get the conversation started? Perhaps I will just ask..."Okay now somebody killed Eomer I need to know who. You can whisper it to me if you'd like." Come on. Something had to start. To be honest a bit SpM's defense of you has made me a bit less leary of you and I'm not sure if I'm voting for you this round or not. Initially I was but then I read SpM's ideas and I'm willing enough to change my mind if somebody shows me where I'm wrong. Although defending you a bit makes me slightly more suspicious of SpM. I would say that my list is as follows.

Kuru and SoN tied
Phantom--be glad you use to be first
Shelob
SpM and TORE tied

Though I would like to hear anything from SoN today

[Firefoot]

Oddwen - my apologies, I was going for memory (bad me) and now that I look at your post again I see that I was mistaken. Either I completely invented something or I was getting you confused with someone else. That was my fault for not being more careful about who and why I was accusing.

[Shelob]

"It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by-> " ~Phantom

I saw the smiley...but it didn't register in my mind until the above comment...see what I mean about missing those signs?

Saucepan Man...this will be somewhat rushed as I am tired and need to go to sleep as I have school tomorrow, but if you want a list not of my reasons for suspicion but for a straight forward list which says whether I think a person to be a "Werewolf", an "Innocent", an "Unsure", or a mix I'll give you one...it's got very brief explanations (if any) because it's well past 11...but if it will reassure you regardless...

Azaelia of Willowbottom--"Unsure"
Firefoot--"Innocent", only one who hasn't really been pulled into anyone's theories...open to change.
Fordim Hedgethistle--"Unsure", leaning towards "Innocent"
Holbytlass--"Unsure", leaning towards "Werewolf"
Kuruharan--leaning towards "Werewolf", too suspicous to be an 'unsure', not suspicious enough to be a full "werewolf"
mormegil--"Unsure", with potential to lean towards 'werewolf'
Oddwen--"Unsure", as with Azaelia
Shelob--"Innocent"
Son of Numenor--Keep forgetting he's playing...umm..."Unsure" due to lack of real thought...
The Only Real Estel--leaning towards "Werewolf", closer to 'unsure' than the others in this position.
the phantom--leaning towards "Werewolf", in much the same boat as Kuru...for slightly different reasons
The Saucepan Man--leaning towards "Werewolf", kinda like with Kuru and Phantom...

Is this flexible? Yes. Does it explain my habit of listing thoughts and not names? No, but that comes from my nature of secondguessing everything I think, and of a strong dislike of announcing my opinions to the world. Will I vote now based on this? No. It's too late and since I know I'll be back again in the morning I would rather wait (ie: sleep) and see what others had to say before casting my vote...with luck we'll hear from those whom have not spoken much, or at all...

[Kuruharan]

Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

Actually, I'm not really joking. Clearly some people are not going to stop and look around themselves until I'm out of the way. When I am out of the way, the villagers are going to have a nasty shock and are going to have to start looking crosswise at the people that led them there.

Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add...

-and-

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you

Actually, if everyone will go back and reread the thread (pauses so everybody can go back and reread the thread) you will notice that Saucepan Man mentioned Evisse as being high on his list of suspects THRICE before I even mentioned her name.

my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN.

-post 48

My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN

-post 61

do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?

-post 62

The first post where I mentioned Evisse was post 63.

After I'd voiced my suspicions he would back up what I said but basically let me do his dirty work for him. And also notice how SoN completely dropped off his radar after that.

Also notice in Post 48 how he said he was least suspicious of Firefoot, TGWBS, and mormegil. TGWBS bought it. The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

For Fordim's peace of mind (if it matters to him) he's off my radar for the moment.

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all: I know this is long, but please bear with it.

Now for a bit of question-raising. Although I appreciate SpM's seeming defense of me I still have to bring something up. Originally I was hung up with how I should be voting if Fordim's side was right or how I should vote if Saucepan's side is right. I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out - Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves. First I will give the condensed version of my reasoning for Sauce/phantom/SoN. I'm going to try to explain how I think they could've worked together so far/how they might in the future.

First the three wolves spotted some pretty major flaws in Fordim's plan (remember we are considering Fordim innocent for the time being) and decided that they could easily use those problems to paint him as the bad guy - they also saw that if they could draw the villagers away from Fordim's plan, there was a fairly good chance that they could catch the seer hanging around in defense of it (let's face it, protection would be attractive to a seer and this plan does offer some protection, it just came at to great a risk for me to implement with a clear conscience). Even if any villagers that the wolves tried to convince us to lynch/killed themselves were not the seer, the wolves could still end up with several innocents hung, so it would be a win-win situation well worth any risks for the trio.

First, they all acted for the plan, then Sauce & tp pulled out after 'just spotting' flaws in the plan (hoping to paint themselves as protectors of the innocent villagers?). SoM stayed behind so that they could paint a trio of wolves (Fordim, SoM, & the seer (they hoped)). When only three remained, SpM suggested this:

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty

Now this does not seem like very sound logic. Were Fordim a wolf, I doubt that he would have let all three wolves be tied together so easily, & I'm not entirely sure that SpM was really sold into his own logic, I doubt that he really thought that Fordim would be so irrational. Thise could simply have been a ploy to get a great mind (Fordim) lynched along with the seer (they hoped), while they killed others during the night - and getting both Fordim and the seer would only cost them a max of one wolf. And it might be possible that after hanging two innocents (both Fordim & Evisse), they might've tried to proclaim their strategy a dud & get out of it without having to hang one of their one at all.

Anyway, when there were just three wolves left, SpM suggested that Fordim, Evisse, & SoN were most likely the werewolves, but he suggested we start the lynching with Evisse because of her 'hedging'. Now, it did seem like Evisse was being cryptic, but now we know why. Perhaps SpM reasoned that she was more likely to be the seer than Fordim was, so he proposed to start with her (he obviously wouldn't want to start with his teammate SoN). Either way, he would win, knowing that Evisse was no wolf & guessing that perhaps she was the seer.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes? SpM & tp were, however, forced to vote alike to make sure that tp did not get lynched (& decrease their numbers). Later, SpM reminded us to make sure there was no tie in the vote, innocent enough, unless he wanted to make sure that one of his counterparts didn't get lynched with Evisse. It seems likely that he was hoping for one more vote for Evisse & not two more votes for Phantom. Unfortunatley, I fell for this because I wanted to make sure that two innocents did not get hung (as I mentioned in my defense above)). Now, I also mentioned that I waited until the last second possible to vote, hoping to catch a wolf, which I never did. It is plausible, I think, that one fo teh reason why a wolf did not try to swoop in to tie the vote (a prime opportunity, though perhaps a bit risky) was because one of their own was near the noose. At any rate, SpM, tp, & SoN had already voted before this, possibly because the knew they didn't want to hold their hand & tie it at the end - they didn't want their partner gone with who they hoped was the seer.

Also:
Originally posted by Estel:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

Originally posted by SpM:

I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

I was originally suspicious of phantom's turn-around, but let my own reasoning (above) convince me not to vote for him (which took out my prime suspect, causing me to vote late when it appeared obvious who I had to vote for). SpM verified what I said heartily. Now, I know that what I posted about the phantom is most likely true, so Saucey could've been innocently agreeing with them, or he could have seen a way of using the words of an innocent merchant to protect his partner in cold-blooded murder.

Given the evidence that I have listed above (& I do apologize for it being a bit long & a bit wandering at times), I am thinking we should follow through on the theory by lynching The Saucepan Man (though I am not yet voting), who is also under suspicion from several other sources.

If Sauce is innocent, I expect people to look at me, but I do believe that he has some hand in the evil doing about, unless I can be convinced otherwise. If Sauce is a wolf, we can then lynch SoN, & finally the phantom. Should I not live until the next day, I will say that I suspect Fordim almost as much as I suspect phantom. Therefore, if the first two lynchings are successful, but phantom is innocent, I propose we go after Fordim.

[Son of Númenor]

I apologize for my late arrival today; I was installing a bathtub in the village down the road.

Another reason for my silence is that I am honestly stumped. I suppose I have an inherent inclination not to want to send people to their deaths without solid evidence. A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

[Kuruharan]

Well, I may as well start the fireworks off here because I'm already in about the worst position and it is not going to do me any harm. I've already said about as much as can be said but to sum it up...

I make a convenient target for manipulation by the werewolves because of my role in Evisse's death. However, I've already shown that I was hardly the vocal originator of suspicion against her.

Ever since the start of this DAY The Saucepan Man (who was the vocal originator of suspicion against Evisse) has been gunning for me. You will notice that initially this DAY I was vocal in my suspicions of Fordim rather than him. I know I'm innocent, the only reason I can think of why Saucepan would be gunning for me so hard is that he is a werewolf and thinks I'm the easiest target for lynching. Firefoot also has been making inconspicuous motions in my direction (actually mentioning me as being suspicious in post 105 right before Saucepan took up the chorus in post 106).

Either way, lynch me or lynch him, I think it is probably a win-win situation for the village. Lynch me and you'll see that I've been telling the truth and the werewolves will have exposed themselves. Lynch him and I'm pretty certain the village will be down a werewolf with at least one solid suspect to follow.

If I am wrong and he is just an incredibly misguided villager, I'm more than happy to take the fall for it...but I don't think I'm wrong.

Anyway, I'm going to bed and have every intention of sleeping in tomorrow morning so I may not see how this plays out. If I get lynched or eaten remember what I've said.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

[mormegil]

Okay here it is and I do hope that I am correct. While I do find Kuruharan extremely suspicious I just don't have that same gut feeling that I do about the phantom The more I think about it the more it looks like, perhaps, that SpM and the phantom are backing each other up. Their actions are very subtle but that is the way of those two. They always seem to have some hidden agenda. Unfortunately, for me, subtly is not my strength. I am open and forthright with my opinions and ideas.

What brought me to this possible connection is SpM's recent defense of the phantom. Mind you it wasn't really strong or overly convincing yet enough to initially change my mind. Also the phantom has implicated SpM and myself and he stated that he felt we were both wolves from the beginning, yet he does little in way of actually going after SpM. If indeed he believes SpM and myself to be guilty and himself innocent wouldn't the logical choice be to go after SpM rather than me? SpM has 10 times the intellect that I do and poses a much greater threat to innocents than I would. So based on that and what I have said before I am voting

++THE PHANTOM

While I don't have 100% certainty of his guilt, he has the most substanial data implicating him to my knowledge and quite frankly I feel more comfortable voting him this day than I do Kuruharan. If he is found guilty I suggest we look closer at SpM and those who support or don't argue one bit against either.

Due to time zones I needed to vote now and not near the end of the day...this round time favors the Brits on that.

It will not suprise me, though, if I am killed tonight.

[the phantom]

Okay, okay! Stop! I've had quite enough of people saying stuff like "phantom's not being himself" and "phantom is acting different".

Of course I am!

I know I'm not supposed to mention the other games, but considering that my current behavior is being compared to my past behavior I feel the need to mention the other games.

Game 1: I voted correctly on day one and we got a wolf. On day two the seer identified a wolf. On day three I had three main suspects and three days in which to lynch them. I never felt out of control while I was alive in that game.

Game 2: I was a wolf, so I knew exactly what was going on, and I had a plan for absolutely everything that could possibly happen. I was confident- not scared of losing in the least.

This game: We lost our SEER the very first day! No one looks particularly more suspicious than anyone else, therefore I have no certainty whatsoever! There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Everyone understand?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

I agree with that.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy.

I agree with that.

The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

I agree with that.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes?

I agree with that.

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game.

I agree with that, too!

I agree with everyone!

Do you see my dilemma? Do you see why I am perhaps grasping at straws? Because every single theory offered seems workable, and I have no way of knowing which one (if any) is correct.

The only thing I know is that I'm an innocent villager. That's not much to work with.

We have nothing concrete to go on. You might say "votes", but if we are using votes as our primary evidence, then I should be the last person you lynch today.

Why? Because, my vote is the least meaningful. Yesterday, it was obviously kill Evisse or kill myself. I had zero choice in the matter. We were tied at three a piece, and with the deadline only 20 minutes away it was possible that my vote would be the final vote, so of course I voted for Evisse. It was a no-brainer. It was beyond obvious. My vote for Evisse tells you nothing.

Lynching me today would kill yet another innocent. Pick someone else instead. Yes, it's quite likely that your choice will be wrong, but you definitely have a better shot at catching a wolf voting for someone else considering that I am most certainly not a wolf.

If you keep me around long enough, I may actually be able to form some solid theories to help you out.

Now, I'm going to go to bed for six hours and when I wake up I will read what is going on and cast my vote.

I sincerely hope that I do not awake to find my vote forced towards someone in order to preserve my own skin (like yesterday).

That means no more voting for me! Understood?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Amen to that! As I stated at the outset today, the outcome of yesterday has dented my confidence in my own efforts at deduction, and I find myself questioning the conclusions that I am reaching.

Take Kuruharan, for example. Earlier today, I was convinced of his guilt on the basis that he edged me towards voting for Evisse yesterday, was directing the voting towards me today and was protesting his innocence too much in the face of very few accusations against him. But this can all be explained innocently. His conclusions concerning Evisse yesterday may well (like mine) have been genuine, he may genuinely (but mistakenly) believe me to be a Werewolf and, if he is innocent, his protestations are understandable.

Kuru is still on my suspect list, but now I am now leaning much more towards Shelob and SoN. Shelob has been present without saying much, she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals leading her to vote for Evisse (who she was the first to vote for) and she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death, thus subtly implicating Fordim. SoN has been “lurking” (as Oddwen puts it) in my view, and appears now and then to drop subtle hints, most recently joining those who are seeking to implicate Fordim and myself. His vote yesterday remains unexplained, but might be looked on as an attempt to spread the voting and therefore possibly get two innocent Villagers lynched.

I will not vote yet. We still have over 4 hours ‘til the end of the day, and I would like to hear more from Fordim, Firefoot and mormegil, the Villagers whose innocence I am currently most sure of (to the extent that we can be sure of anything at the moment). I am tending towards voting for either Shelob or SoN, but if I see any convincing arguments in favour of one of them, or against anyone else, I am willing to change my view.

Finally, it seems that quite a few are now edging towards voting for me. Fine. Lynch me of you wish. It would be a mistake, but I am not going to go overboard in defending myself. I would just point out that I have not exactly been backward in coming forward and in sharing my thoughts with everyone as they have developed. In other words, I have not been doing a very good job at deflecting attention away from myself. If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy. Unlike Azaelia who had not posted at all until just now, Oddwen actually did show up to vote. She even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Oddwen - my apologies, I was going for memory (bad me) and now that I look at your post again I see that I was mistaken. Either I completely invented something or I was getting you confused with someone else.

It was Shelob who claimed to have voted on the basis of my summary.

[mormegil]

Why I thought that by now I've given everyone more than mouthful. If you want my opinion on your list I would be more willing to vote for Shelob currently than SoN. However I have already voted and silly me I woke up much earlier than I planned so that's why I'm posting now though it wasn't planned. It's only 5:30 here and I went to be after midnight.

But SpM simply based on your little list I would argue Shelob over the others if you would truly like to know, though look at the phantom fellow a bit also brewer.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

But SpM simply based on your little list I would argue Shelob over the others if you would truly like to know, though look at the phantom fellow a bit also brewer.

The way that things are looking, voting for the phantom might be the only way of saving myself from a lynching.

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN, I shall vote right now, before it can be said that I was trying to protect a fellow Werewolf by voting for him only when it was safe to do so. I appreciate what you are saying about Shelob, morm, and I do still suspect her. But I have suspected SoN from the outset, and was only diverted away from him on the first day by Kuru's comments about Evisse. And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone.

So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR

There. It is done. I have probably sealed my own death warrant, either by lynching today or by foul murder tonight. But there it is.

[Shelob]

Saucepan Man, you were misreading/misrepresenting me again...

"she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals" ~Saucepan Man

Frst off I'm not entirely sure what 'volte' means but since the definition seemed to have something todo with either turning in a circle or parying in Fencing I'm guessing you mean that I either edged about the point or made a quick-defensive change...in either case it's understandable, however I didn't mean for it to be read that way...I still think that the 'short-list' idea is inheirently wrong, maybe it's not flawed as I first saw it to be but something about it is just not right...as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

"she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death" ~Saucepan Man

Yes I pointed it out early...I was also not alone in doing so, Kuru pointed it out at about the same time I did and Mormegil then admited to have thought of it and not mentioned it solely on the basis that it was too risky. Kuru and I both, in pointing this out, did say that we thought it a risky plan and I distinctly said "I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely..." I don't hold with it now, it doesn't seem likely at all...


That you continue to misread/misrepresent me even after I've pointed it out worries me...if you are misreading me I can forgive you, it's an innocent mistake...if, however, you are intentionally misrepresenting me it either means you're an innocent who is an amazing asset to the werewolves because you muddy up the waters or that you are a werewolf leading a crusade against one you know to be innocent...
...I would give you the benefit of the doubt, I wish to think you just misread what I say, but one would think that if this were the case you wouldn't have repeated the offense after having it pointed out to you...esp. since the first of my complaints above is so similar to one I pointed out before...surely you can't have misread the same thing twice?
It is on this theory, that you are intentionally misrepresenting me, that I feel I must vote ++SAUCEPAN MAN. I am sorry for it, but since I shall likely not be back on before this day's end I feel it to be the best choice that I can make...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

That you continue to misread/misrepresent me even after I've pointed it out worries me...

I can understand why you may think that, but what you call misreading/misrepresentation arises simply as a result of my attempts to summarise what you have said, rather to than repeat it at length each time that I post. Believe me, I took the "explanations" that you seek to give into account when forming my views.

Originally Posted by Shelob

if, however, you are intentionally misrepresenting me it either means you're an innocent who is an amazing asset to the werewolves because you muddy up the waters or that you are a werewolf leading a crusade against one you know to be innocent...

While I am most certainly not a Werewolf, I would hate it to be thought that I am an innocent asset to them. All that I have sought to do is set out my thought processes in the hope that they may be of assistance to those others amongst us who are also innocent. If that's "muddying the waters", then I am sorry, but I would rather make my views known and accept the risks that go along with that than do nothing whatsoever to advance the Villagers' cause.

A final plea to those who have not yet voted. A Village troubled by Werewolves is a sad thing. But a Village troubled by Werewolves and lacking anyone to brew the beer is sadder still ...

[Oddwen]

Here's the post I promised - I suppose I shall detail some of my suspicions in it.

Zali - Besides her obvious abscence, in her single post she seems pretty much given to the idea she'll be lynched for it. Perhaps this is a too fatalistic approach.

Fordim - Suspicions, of course, ran high on DAY one, now he seems to have stepped back a bit. I mentioned him in my suspicions yesterDAY, and I still don't let him off the hook entirely.

Holbytlass - Again, her thrashing makes me nervous. And voting between the two absent villagers when there was other stuff going on - not allaying my fears either.

Kuru - Seems insistent that he's going to die, and that it'll be SpM's fault. Could this be part of a plan with SpM? - see below.

Originally Posted by Shelob

as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

Useful for what? We have no seer.

SoN - His seemingly purposeful abscence makes me wonder...

Originally Posted by the phantom

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Though you were acting that way BEFORE we lost the Seer.

Originally Posted by SpM

If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?

I dunno...if you were a werewolf, what would the odds be that you'd be the most powerful one of the three? And would seemingly sacrificing yourself be a plan you'd use? Would Kuru's accusations of you be part of it?


And what's all this talk of double-lynchings?

Originally Posted by The Barrow Wight

If no majority is reached as a result of more than two players accumulating votes, then a runoff is held and the two highest vote-getters are on the block. Anyone who didn't vote for them originally must now choose between the two of them to determine which person will be lynched. If there still isn't a majority by then, a tiebreaker is used. One of the players at risk places a dagger in one of two boxes, and the other player chooses one of those boxes to open. If the box with the dagger is opened, that player is killed.

So my list is thus:


Holby
phantom
SpM
Kuru
Shelob
Fordim
SoN

I do not anticipate being online before the end of this DAY, therefore I must put in my vote for ++HOLBYTLASS now.

[mormegil]

Thank you for clearing up the double lynching idea Oddwen and I think that it helps shed some light on people arguements.

[Firefoot]

Well, I'm not going to be around for the end of the Day, so I will have to post my vote now based on what we have.

I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

I see that overnight people have started accusing me of echoing SpM. While it is true that our thoughts have gone in similar directions, let me assure you my opinions are my own. I have read everyone's opinions with equal weight and formed my opinions from that; perhaps SpM and I have marked out the same things as important. But I am not echoing SpM's thoughts. I am stating my own, which are often similar, whether or not they have already been said (if I didn't you'd all probably be trying to accuse me of 'flying under the radar').

(NB: On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.)

[the phantom]

Well, this is my only chance to vote.

I'd actually like to vote for Saucy since he figures into a couple of ideas I've been working on puting together, but SoN also is in one of my theories so he's not a particularly bad choice.

Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.

I agree. I was under the impression that we were using the rule change that I implemented for the second game. Perhaps Eomer could clarify, given the current state of voting.

As matters stand, the phantom, SoN and I will all be lynched. Heck, I would rather see myself lynched, innocent though I am, than potentially have two innocents hanged.

Edit: I wrote this before I saw the phantom's post. Although SoN is yet to vote ...

[The Only Real Estel]

(NB: On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.)

I thought I recalled that.

Well, so far the voting goes:
3 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
2 for the phantom
1 for Holbytlass


I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it). But both Sauce and SoN are highly suspected by me right now and I'm split between the vote. I am 90% sure that we could bag a werewolf with Son, but almost equally as sure we could do the same by hanging Sauce (though his posts of late have cast a few shadows of doubt in my mind).
I plan on posting my vote late, again, hopefully more arguments will come to light by then.

Originally posted by SpM:

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN, I shall vote right now, before it can be said that I was trying to protect a fellow Werewolf by voting for him only when it was safe to do so.
So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR

But just because you're voting for him hardly puts to rest any questions of league between the two of you. If a wolf senses his partner is going down (and SoN is now the top vote-getter) I would not expect you to vote last or vote otherwise; in other words I wouldn't be at all suprised to see you as a wolf taking down SoN, who is a wolf. And especially seeing how you voting for SoN momentarily tied him with yourself for the most votes.

[mormegil]

TORE there is actually two votes for the phantom. Look at post 125 from Azaleia.


Edit: Ah I see that it has been corrected.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TORE

Well, so far the voting goes:
2 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
1 for Holbytlass
1 for the phantom

Actually, it's:

3 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
1 for Holbytlass
2 for the phantom

Originally Posted by TORE

If a wolf senses his partner is going down (and SoN is now the top vote-getter) I would not expect you to vote last or vote otherwise ...

Yet I was the first to vote for him, at a time when only Firefoot, other than I, had given any serious indication of voting for him.

[Holbytlass]

Actually, Estel, Phantom has 2 votes from Azalia and Mormegil.
So it's SoN-3
Phantom-2
SpM-2
Holby-1
myself, Fordim, and Estel needing to vote, and less than an hour to do so.
I was going to vote when there was a 3 way tie. Then Oddwen voted for me. Therefore I held off my vote in case I had to save myself.
I will vote for ++Son of Numenor for two reseans(sp?). Obviously now, even if Fordim and Estel vote for me I'm saved from the tied- double lynching. The other (and this is for when I originally was going to vote) I do think that Phantom and Saucepan Man are highly suspicios. Although at this point there smarts are needed. I am scared they are wolves using their wit against the rest of innocents. But then Kuru suggestion of looking to the secondary people comes to mind. If anything at all, the outcome of SoN's death will be very illuminating.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

... myself, Fordim, and Estel needing to vote ...

... and SoN.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Well, one thing that has become clear to me is that I was right about this game when I first heard of it – until the third round, at the earliest, there is nothing approaching “hard evidence” to point toward any one person’s guilt. At this point it is still entirely possible to make arguments for or against everybody! But I am happy to see that the vote is being split amongst so many people, leaving very little wiggle room for the wolves. With five people voted for already, the odds are very good that one of them is a wolf, so we can watch the votes from here out with some interest…

As to my vote, I am stuck. I would love to vote for Kuru on the thinking that he is either, a) a wolf or b) a villager who is helping the wolves inadvertently with his rather confusing and confounding posts. Unfortunately, a single for him at this point is unlikely to get him lynched – the only way that would happen would be if virtually every who is still to vote followed my lead. If he turned out to be an innocent, then this would make me look very very bad. As much as I would like to play this game selflessly, it is clear that I need to take more care for my own skin than that. So for the time, I think, Kuru is safe.

My next choice after Kuru is The Phantom for precisely the same reasons: he is either a wolf, or a villager who is helping the wolves hide with his own flurry of distracting speculations and self-congratulatory “conclusions” about people. The other thing that speaks greatly in favour of voting for TP is that it will break the current three-way tie between himself, Sauce and SoN – the last thing I want is a wholesale slaughter!

Hmmmmm…things are happening fast. Since I typed that last paragraph, The Phantom has gone on to vote for SoN, apparently to save his own neck. Seems fair to me…

The votes at this moment so far as I can tell are:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 3

So what do I do? I’m tempted to vote for the Phantom anyway and tie it up again, putting pressure on the remaining voters…

Boy, but the squeeze is being put on me!! If I vote for someone now and they end up getting lynched and they’re innocent, I’ll definitely be considered a wolf. If I tie it up, and there are wolves yet to vote, then they will be able to decide whom to lynch…the safest course for me, personally, is to cast a “meaningless” vote for Kuru who, like I said at the beginning of this bizarrely stream-of-consciousness post, is my first choice…

Just read Holbytlass’s latest post (158) and note that it is down to herself, me and Estel to decide this thing…and Saucy in 159 reminding me of SoN.

All right! That tears it…I need to vote for somebody and I don’t want the weight of being the last to vote. As it would appear as though SoN is the “leader” and as it would appear as though he is trying the rather wolfish strategy of waiting to the last minute to cast his vote (as I would appear to be doing as well, I realize) I am going to vote for

++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

That having been said, if SoN is innocent, I am going to go after SaucepanMan and The Phantom with everything I’ve got in the next day, since they have lead the charge against SoN today…