Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Garin]

I'm not going to waste the whole day defending myself to Cailin, who seems to have a awful mean streak that seems quite predatory, if you catch my meaning. Even if Valier did trust, her which isn't obvious it doesn't mean that a wolf-lin wouldn't take her out. I voted for Shelob to save my life, it would've been a double lynch. If that doesn't seem reasonable, I don't know what else to say. I'm not the suicidal one in this group.
I think the non-voters should be put under suspicion because voting records are one of the most telling and permanent things we have with which to root out the wolves.
Edit: I was called away from my desk so I cross-posted with quite a few people, including that odd vote.

[malkatoj]

So Valier's dead.

::double-checks::

Okay, Valier's dead. (Note to self: Don't vote for Valier.)


Um, Wayne? Why's he pulling a Nilp? The fact that he's still alive kind of irritates me, mostly because somebody usually kills him. I find it even more odd that Gil immediately voted for him instead of SpM, whom a number of us have cast suspicion on.

Okay, to address the SpM issue: though by no means do I think it means he's a wolf, I'd like to point out that he started both the Shelob and the Abercrombie bandwagons. On one hand, he could just be casting fairly early votes and others are trusting him and voting with him because he's SpM, but perhaps he's just a very powerful wolf. It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay. And even if you don't vote for him, don't vote with him--innocent or no, it's dangerous to let one person have so much power over us.

[mormegil]

I have a couple of points that I would like to make currently.

1. Glirdan is incredibly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Yes, I'm now aware of that. I meant that for earlier. Bascially, my vote was to not bandwagon and because I still found that there was something not sitting right with me for Saucy.

He responds to TGWBS thusly then shortly after states this

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I miscounted the votes when I voted. So, I was thinking, at the time, that if I voted for Valier, there would be a possible double lynch and I did not want to be the cause of that.

So he states that he was aware of what his vote would do and then yet says he miscounts the votes and thought it would cause a tie. Seems a bit of a slip to me.

2. Formendacil's behavior is incredibly odd and I'm thinking I may vote for him. I don't know what to make of it. I don't know if he's the cobbler or simply doesn't care.

3. Wayne should be killed today! I know this will increase suspicion of me but I think that we will be better off without him. He wants to die and is incredibly ambiguous. His confusion does more harm than good. I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Those are my main three points but now I will move on to a couple of other items. TGWBS is pestering me, all game seemingly, for responses to any and all queries he may have. What I found from Cailin's post is that up to that point you had been vocal and yet contributed little. Today you have rectified that and are contributing a lot. So that concern is nullified however I will continue to watch you.

Cailin still isn't sitting right with me and I may vote for her. But I may vote for Formen, Wayne, or Glirdan.

I do agree with most people about how obnoxious it is for so many people to not vote and propose that if it continues we form a posse, contrary to SpM to be sure, and lynch them summarily if allowed. If not continue to double lynch until behavior improves. I know this won't happen and I'm not sure it should but I want to let people know how I feel about it.

Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.

[Naria]

Finally I'm on! I have a perfectly good excuse for not posting and not voting. I had said in my first post that I was using other people's computers and would be getting mine back. Well I did get mine back later in day 2, when I had finally downloaded everything and did a virus scan and got online the deadline had come and gone. Then this site kept freezing on me today.
So I truly apologize for that inconvenience.

I recall being fairly quite in the last game I was in. Three posts max in one day. I will not analyse anyone for there is enough people doing a good enough job already. I will however post a personal thought about each player later on.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well if you look at my track record and SpM while loud and analytical we're seldom right. So the wolves wouldn't be stupid to leave us around.

[malkatoj]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

Hm. As much as I don't like the idea of killing off extras in our village, I feel that both Wayne and SpM need to go. SpM seems too wolfish, looking at his track record, and Wayne gets in the way. His most recent post even gets me thinking he could easily be a wolf, trying to pull a bluff...or double-bluff...or something like that.

So, while I'd love to have them both gone, I feel like if they're both innocent we'll be hurting ourselves a bit too much, and I really don't know what to do. Before trying to kill them both, we should come to some sort of village consensus about whether to go for a double-lynch or no.

I think we should, for the record. And I apologize if I'm wrong.

[Naria]

I don't agree with the double lynching idea. I mean if it happens in a tie vote then it happens. But I don't think that we should go out of our way to ensure this and make a conscious decision to kill two people at once.
What kind of furry talk is this anyway? Are we not worried enough about our dwindling numbers.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here is my voting analysis from yesterday. I know TGWBS has already posted his, but it is traditional for me to do so:

1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Aiwendil - er - Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Did not vote: Wayne, Gil-Galad, Glirdan, Márcolië Lamen, Naria

First things first. Valier's death. I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

Now, before I go on, let me get something out of my system. I am getting just a little bit fed up with people accusing me of talking too much and trying to take control. Well, pardon me for bothering to participate in our discussions (unlike some I could mention).

If you think I am saying too much, then the answer is to try to drown me out with your own analyses. I would be only too happy if you did so, since it seemed yesterday that there were only a few of us who were actually bothering to try to solve this mystery. That is what I am trying to do and that is why I have been speaking a lot. Thinking aloud, if you like, and sharing my thoughts, in case they strike a chord with anyone. I am not trying to control anyone or sway the village. Of course, I hope people read and take account of what I say - otherwise why bother posting? But I hope you are all capable of making up your own minds.

If people followed my ideas because they agreed with them, then it means that there must have been some substance to them, even though they turned out to be wrong. And it also means that those who shared my thoughts are just as complicit in the deaths of two innocents as I am and bear us much consideration as I do, even if I was the first to cast the vote for our dead innocents in both cases. I would point out that I was not the only one who suspected Abercrombie and Shelob, even amongst those who did not ultimately vote for them, and indeed my decisions to vote for those two, particularly the one for Shelob, were partially influenced by the fact that others, whom I felt to be innocent (at the time at least) were thinking along the same lines as me. And if people followed my ideas because they couldn't be bothered to think for themselves, then that's their problem not mine. Either that, or they are Wolves and were looking for a mistaken innocent to follow. Basically, I would encourage everyone to try to think for themselves and reach their own conclusions, rather than adopting mine.

OK, rant over.

Now, to comment on a few of the things that have been said today already, partially because they pick up on a few points that I wanted to make anyway:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well, for my own part, all I can say is no, I am not a Wolf, and yes, I have been badly wrong so far. Frankly, the fact that I am still alive does make me wonder whether I have been barking up the completely the wrong tree (to adopt an unfortunate phrase) so far and makes me wonder whether all of my suspicions to date (Garin, Glirdan and Kath) have been off-key. In other words, I feel as though I am more or less back to square one.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Secondly, I'd like to insult them for killing an innocent Valier. I'd also like to insult the village for killing an innocent Shelob and Abercrombie.

Thirdly, I'd like to direct today's attention, discussion, and lynching towards a candidate who is a Werewolf.

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage. Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we? And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched? It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Definetly wasn't looked for. But it was probably the best choice for the Wolves.

Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I notice how SpM was after me a lot yesterday and knew perfectly well that I might not return in order to defend myself. What the strange thing is that he suddenly drops off that attack later on. I find this quite strange. Not to mention, if I'm correct, he was the first to voice suspicion for Shelob. He is really making me suspicious and uneasy.

Glirdan, I explained at the time that I voted that I did not think that there was enough evidence against you to warrant a vote. And I was also concerned not to vote for you as a reaction to your vote for, and continued suspicion of, me (a consideration which Cailín reasonably pointed out). Would you rather I had voted for you, even though I suspected others more? As for Shelob, I was not actually the first to note her suspicious-looking vote on Day 1. That was Cailín in post #86. I did subsequently voice strong suspicion of her and was the first to vote for her. But that was because I suspected her. I wish more people had enlightened us with some constructive analysis yesterday - or even contributed - but I'd better stop this line of thought before I start ranting again ...

Originally Posted by Cailín

Also - I very much wish to know why so many people failed to vote. I've never seen anything like it.

I agree. It was inexcusable (unless, of course, you have a good excuse - but even then you should perhaps not have joined our village in the first place).

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

Although I did not agree with her reason for voting Valier yesterday (I thought that Valier justifed her vote perfectly well), I do agree that Kath is looking less and less suspicious as time wears on. Her Day 1 vote would have looked suspicious if Valer had turned out to be a Wolf, but we all know now that she didn't. Her Day 2 vote for Valier can't really be described as a "safe" Wolfish vote, as she was not to know that there would be such a pathetic turn out.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

Originally Posted by Glirdan

In my defence, if I were a Wolf, I would not be as stupid to attack someone whom I suspected. That would leave to many clues pointing towards me.

I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

Like others, I really don't know what to make of the votes cast by Wayne and Gil. I have cautioned about going against them when they are merely behaving as they always do, but my patience with them is now beginning to wear thin. It would be nice if they could provide reasons for their votes. Perhaps, if Formendacil is not the Cobbler, Wayne is. Or perhaps, as Glirdan says, he is taking a leaf out of Nilp's book (although Nilp carries it off with so much more aplomb ).

Originally Posted by Garin

I voted for Shelob to save my life, it would've been a double lynch. If that doesn't seem reasonable, I don't know what else to say.

Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner. I am not quite sure what to make of that. And, in response to Cailín's point, I suspect from the timing that he cross-posted with Shelob and did not see her vote for you before he cast his own. At the time, therefore, Shelob would have been the best option for saving himself. Although I am not sure why he did not make that point himself.

Originally Posted by malkatoj

It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay.

Oh I do hope not, but if that turns out to be the case, then so be it. At least people will be making up their own minds for once, even if wrongly so (*pulls back from another rant*).

Originally Posted by mormegil

Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.

It is interesting that she admitted typing the wrong name, having meant to vote for Kath. It would have been much easier to regard her as innocent had she said that she actually meant to vote for Aiwendil, thinking that he was still alive. But would a Wolf be so honest? Or is it another possible bluff? In any event, there are three Wolves to find, so I am crossing malkatoj off my list - for now at least. Despite her deeply expressed desire to be rid of me ...

So, any ideas from me as to who might be a Wolf? Well, the above is all speculation (so please don't be swayed by it). As I said, I am really back to square one. Besides, I am terrified that if I express any suspicions, a whole load of people will agree with me and we'll end up voting another innocent "on my say so" ...

[Glirdan]

I must say that it is rather quiet toDay. Here's a short synopsis of what has been said all Day toDay.

TGWBS: Gives us a voting record of the previous Day. Says we should get rid of all those who are too quiet or have not voted. Asks Cailin and morm to answer his question from yesterDay. Attacks Naria and myself to get resoning out of our throwaway votes from Day 1. Says he can't get over it even though Shelob did same and as proven innocent. Defends Nilp simply because he's Nilp and malka because of her misvote. Also truts Kath due to her vote for Valier. Notes that spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin all voted for an innocent twice and doesn't really suspect any of them but decides to go back and check each of them out individually. Believes there is a Wolf hidden amongst Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Form, Wayne, Naria and myslef. Notices that both Cailin and myself said that SpM has voted for a known innocent first each Day and believes it to be incriminating. Finds Wayne and Gil's votes odd.

There's one thing that I find odd in there. While I do agree with him that malka is probably an innocent because of her misvote and her not showing up until yesterday, I don't think that we should leave Nilp out of our sight just yet. How do we know that he's not being a suicidal Wolf?

Cailin - Finds Valier's death rather surprising. Sees that Valier and herself have voted the exact same way for the past two days and thinks that it might be a setup to make her look guilty. Also believes that Wolves might have seen Valier as the Seer which would make Garin look bad. Finds that morm, SpM and Spawn all alive rather disturbing. Would like and explanation for Garin's last moment desicion. Says that people need to make up their own minds with whom they are suspicious of. Agrees with TGWBS on the fact that the non voters are just getting in the way.

I don't find anything in that overly suspicious. If anything, I find more insightful.

I'll have the other's up shortly.

[malkatoj]

So you don't think we should specifically go out and try to. Understandable. I'm not completely invested in the idea, either, but I feel like we should do something to get rid of Wayne, since he only confuses us, but we also shouldn't let it impede our progress on wolf-hunting for the day.

I, however, will cast my vote for the Day, for, like our late Shelob, I feel badly posting in school (and apparently do stupid things).

++Saucepan Man

for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row.

I'll probably be on again late in the Day, but I wanted to get this posted just in case I'm not.


Edit-Note: cross-posted with both SpM and Glirdan

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

... for getting us to kill our innocent friends twice in a row.

Ah, whatever happened to collective responsibility ...?

[Garin]

I propose a double lynching making sure that we tie the vote with Wayne at the end.

I never like-double lynchings, it just is terrifying to me that a village could accidentally lynch two innocents in one day.

Malkatoj: Okay, Valier's dead. (Note to self: Don't vote for Valier.)

It is good that you can laugh at yourself. It made me giggle in honor of our, poor dead coconut milker. The Guy seems to think this makes you innocent but I am not convinced. I don't find you too wolvish, and you don't have much of a beef with me, yet. So I'll sit back and make sure this isn't some masterful wolf strategy.
Both Wayne and Gil posted and voted curiously close to one another.
This is bizarre, I hope they aren't PMing eachother during the night, for they are either breaking the rules or are wolves. I wish they had fleshed out their reasoning a little more.
People seem more detached from this game than normal, some surely have reasonable explanations. Some are surely wolves, i wish our God Mod and made a rule about killing non-voters.
If Wayne, wants to die, I say let him. We have heard little to the contrary. However, I will wait. I'm normally against helping someone die, but am growing wary of it. At least, Nilp came up with an interesting post with which to condemn himself.

[Glirdan]

In answer to SpM's question:

Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).

There were a few people (me for one) who had voiced suspicion of her. She was also a very quiet villager. If they killed her off, it would leave no clues pointing to anyone in particular and leave some of us looking suspicious.

I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

I'm just going to say now, even though I'm going to be badgered about it for quite some time, that I realise my vote for you was a complete throw away. That was completely intentional. I did not want to bandwagon. That's why I ended up voting for you. As for my answers to TGWBS, I must say that I can't quite get my thoughts in order and explain how I have it in my head. All I have to say is that I was a quite confused (not to mention stressed) villager.

Now, to do an analysis on three more villagers:

Formendacil - Comes on and mourns for Valier's death. Blames the Wolves for killing an innocent villager as well as insults the village in itself for lynching two innocents. Says that we should direct everything towards the Wolves.

If I must say, this is the most useless post that I've ever seen. No substance, no helpful hints, nothing. He comes on and leaves us again in bewilderment. Either he's being a really brave Wolf or a very stupid Villager.

I'm gong to skip me for the time being and go on to

Wayne: Also comes on for one post and votes for himself.

Gil - Comes on for one post as well and gives Wayne a vote to go along with his death wish.

I've already given my opinions on this subject in a previous post.

I'll have malka, morm and naria up next.

[malkatoj]

SpM: Ah, whatever happened to collective responsibility ...?

Well, I voted for Wayne and Aiwen-- Kath. So I take no responsibility for these.

Cailin: Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day.

It just seems wolfish, and you more so because you started the bandwagons that led to the deaths. As always, apologies if I am wrong.

[Garin]

Posted by SpM: Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner.

I didn't intend to be arrogant, I really wanted to extend my sympathy to Shelob. She was not at the top of my list at the time and I won't PM her until this thing is over. So I thought the village was headed in the wrong direction but this is a game of survival, I thought her more innocent than others (rhymes with mail-in) but I was out to save myself. I detest the innocent that put their heads in the noose, so I was just doing what I thought was best for the village.
I used the word 'dear' because I wanted to give her the best, innocent or wolf. It was used endearingly.

[Glirdan]

malka - Finds it wierd that Wayne is pulling a Nilp and thinks that Gil's voter for him is even more odd. Wants to point out that, even though she doesn't believe that SpM is a Wolf, he was the one who started the Shelob and Crombie bandwagons. Agrees that we should double lynch, SpM and Wayne preferably. Votes for Saucy because he led the bandwaggoning.

Ok, either she missed SpM's long rant on making your own mind up or she just choses to ignore it. I find that reason rather....what's the word I'm looking for....BAD! Yes, I suspect SpM, but for reasons other than that. Also, if you would prefer to vote for Wayne, why did you vote for SpM? (Wow, I'm asking the same question that I've been asked all Day!! ).

morm - Finds me incredibly suspicious and finds Form's behaviour rather odd. Believes we should absolutely lynch Wayne and something about Cailin isn't sitting right with him. Thinks he's going to vote for Cailin, Wayne, Form or myself. Thinks that Wolves wouldn't be stupid enough to leave him or SpM around do to their track record.

I find absolutely nothing wrong with anything that morm's said all Day.

Naria - Explains absecence. Says he won't do any analysing due to the fact that there's enough people doing that already. Will, however, give a personal thought later on about each of the players. Does not agree with double lynching theory.

Well, I find that Naria's being entirely unhelpful. Doesn't want to analyse because others are already doing it. That's worse than Form because you're actually admitting that you don't want to do any analysing.

Next: Garin, SpM and myself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

I feel like we should do something to get rid of Wayne, since he only confuses us ...

Gah! Wayne confuses. I sway and control. Does anyone in this village have a mind of their own?

I find it ironic that, with so many people in this village singularly failing to contribute to the debate (and the voting), I am accused because I am actually bothering to spend the time trying to work out, and share my thoughts on, who the Wolves might be. I have been wrong so far, yes. But how many other suspicions and votes have been wrong also?

Originally Posted by malkatoj

It just seems wolfish, and you more so because you started the bandwagons that led to the deaths.

OK, I am starting to get angry now. I didn't "get" anyone to kill innocent villagers. And I didn't start any bandwagons - not intentionally so, anyway. I have always made clear that the voting should be spread widely in order to make it difficult for the Wolves. I take responsibility for my vote, but I take no responsibility for any others.

Are we going to see the usual pattern of innocents being lynched for having accused and voted for other innocents? And am I the only person who has voted for two innocents?

And, finally, do you really think that I have behaved in the way that a Wolf would behave? If so, then vote for me by all means. But I would point out that, if I am a Wolf, I have been a pretty poor one ...

Now, unless any other points come up, that's all I am going to say in my defence, as it takes up time that I should be spending formulating my thoughts, and it gets wearing. Ultimately, better a vote for me than a Gifted, but better still a vote for a Wolf. Unless, of course, you are a Wolf ...

[Glirdan]

Garin - Won't spend all Day explaining himself to Cailin. Voted for Shelob to save his own neck. Also finds Gil and Wayne's vote odd. Doesn't like double lynching idea either. Thinks that if Wayne wants to die, we should let him but doesn't want to help in the killing.

Well, out of this, plus the post that I didn't put in (simply because there isn't anything in there that I haven't [technically] put in already), nothing out of the ordinary.

SpM - Comes on and does really long post, some of which is ranting that he didn't lead anyong purposely to vote for Shelob and Crombie. Also finds Valier's death bizzare. Adresses certain comments that have been made today.

I'm not putting anything else in because he's only made two posts, one of which you'd have to read yourself to get more out of it. However, out of that entire post, I must say that nothing seems out of the ordinary. I still don't trust him.

Now, for me: Comes on and says that he finds Valier's death odd. Adresses questions made by TGWBS. Finds Wayne and Gil's votes rather strange. Perhaps Cobblerish? Or maybe pulling a Nilp? Does analysis of everyone who's posted toDay and adresses comments made by SpM.

Take from that what you will. As for my suspcions list(not in order):

SpM
Gil
Wayne
malka

I think the following few people are mst likely innocent:

Cailin
morm

Still not sure of:

Form
TGWBS
Naria
Garin

As for those who haven't posted yet, I'll have to reserve judgement for them. I will have to vote very shortly. Out of the 4 I suspect, I don't know who to vote for.

[The Saucepan Man]

Just reading back and noticed that when I said ...

Originally Posted by SpM in post #168

They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter.

I meant Seer and Ranger.

[Garin]

I'll admit it, if I was a wolf I would have taken out Cailin and not the vague giggling-kitten. She has it out for me and I am not sure why, It just seemed Valier was just following her lead to a certain death. I looked at the photo of Cailin on the photo page to try to get a feel for her aggression and don't see the pretty young woman acting so aggressively if not for a lupine identity. I'm confused and as angry as SpM right now for the way the village is acting. I will continue to disregard her suspicions and propose we weed out the non-participants.
I will ignore principles and go for Wayne and perhaps Gil in several hours. I will likely not vote for Cailin because I am not one to vote in retribution.
But I could be swayed.

[Glirdan]

Well, I have to vote now and it shall be for

++SpM

I'm not aiding Wayne to be suicidal. We don't have anything concrete on either him or Gil, I'm not quite sure malka is a Wolf due to the fact that she was gone an entire Day. That leaves me with SpM. Not because he was the lead people to bandwagon, because he was the first to vote for both Shelob and Crombie (bandwaggoning not his fault) and I think that he's been a little over defensive in his last few posts. Not to mention something is still not sitting right. I wish you all good luck and may we finally find a Wolf.

[Márcolië Lamen]

I'm so sorry about all of this. First off I lose access to a computer. When I regain it I have no idea why I don't vote. I'm not going to try to explain, because I don't understand myself...since I had the window open to cast my vote in and forgot about doing that before leaving for class...

I really don't know what to say now. Everything I can think of at the moment has been said, and I have no idea how to best mix it up.

this has been a really odd game, and whenever I'm reading I feel like I'm getting nowhere.

I'm going to go off for about 10 minutes to clear my head, then read through everything again and just let anything I can think of come out.

Sorry again.

[mormegil]

I cannot for the life of me understand the current suspicion towards SpM. I see nothing in him that makes me think he is a wolf. I think there is wolfish influence here and it makes me look at Glirdan, again, and Malka.

The votes don't seem to be explained sufficiently. In my opinion SpM seems sincere and genuine. I can sympathize with his frustration, for I have felt it too. I care not what this may do of people's opinion to me. I am defending somebody that I believe innocent.

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.

[Garin]

I think it a mistake to target Sauce at this time. He has these long posts that might reveal his identity if we are patient. I hate to see one of our most active members die when there are certainly some wolves watching from afar. He voted for innocents but who hasn't? There lies some busy-work for a post. I declare that I will not vote for him even it means my own neck. I stand that non-participants should die and not those willing to stick their necks out.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First, I'll say that I'm convinced The Saucepan Man is innocent (although the manner of presentation is a bit unimaginative. )

Second, I also think dancing spawn of ungoliant is innocent, because if I had a hand in killing her it would look bad for future in-laws.

Third, I'll be back with a more serious analysis. More voting records to check, with more innocents (unfortunately most of them dead) to reduce the pool of predators. I'll probably be more useful today.

Just don't roast me and eat me!

[Formendacil]

It is 1:30 am. I ought to be in bed.

Clearly, however, I am not, and so I am here offering no help whatsoever- and a full 12 hours or so before I'd predicted I'd be doing that.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage.

Ah, but perhaps I have no insightful analysis to offer?

Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we?

Nor are you ever likely to, since I do not deign to share them, and since "they" probably don't exist in the first place...

For what it's worth, I haven't been able to keep up with this game as closely as I have in times past. The adjustment to reading full pages at a time and trying to digest their full meaning... doesn't work for me.

And I'm too lazy to try.

And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched?

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Yep, that's me: no use at all.

Seriously, I have very little to offer which is new, relevant, or sensible. Other than popping my head in to assure you all that I'm still alive- what else have I to do?

And, incidentally, I am still very much alive.

Now, although it is my avowed intention to be no use whatsoever, allow me to put forward a tidbit of caution regarding the evil Saucepan Man. The Saucepan Man, as we call him, is an uncannily cunning Werewolf player- although often clueless in his guesses as to innocence. Possessed of the talent of persuasion, he is renowned for his ability to sway the village in favour of his candidate- wisely or not. However, thus far, this ability has always been coupled with an Innocent Demeanor.

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?

However, it seems me that he came on a good deal stronger in this game than in those previous, hitting the ground running, so to speak, with typical Day 1 babble about his occupation: Day 1 babble that basically said "I'm a lawyer, so let me be in charge".

As already noted, both Mormegil and the Saucepan Man, who are perhaps the two villagers best known for cunning and noisemaking, are not dead. Is this perhaps a sign of Werewolfishness?

I remain, foolish villagers, uncertain of anything. But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow. Seriously, guys...

Bandwagoning. In this village the person who gets the most votes is lynched. In order to get the most votes, the lynchee has to be voted by a majority. In the end of a day, there has to be some kind of a majority voting for a villager or otherwise we're all dead after Day 1, and therefore it's ridiculous to call every cluster of votes a 'bandwagon'. Those who have no opinions on their own are the ones to do the bandwagoning (with possible wolves). Those who have their own theories about what's going on in this village do not bandwagon despite in whatever way they vote since they have another reason to do it than that someone just seems to be getting votes anyway.

Let's assume we have a bandwagon against an ordinary villager. Who is responsible for the death of an innocent? Every one of us has only one vote, so a single villager can't get anyone lynched by him/herself. Take responsibility for your vote! If you're too lazy to make your own mind about things and we lynch an innocent, you can blame yourself. And in that case, maybe this village life isn't made for you in the first place. Sure you wouldn't be happier somewhere else, like in Rivendell where you can just sit back and have fun as much as you want to?

Swaying. If it bothers you, don't be swayed.

(I'm not saying that we would have some villagers who tried to manipulate others, but since it seems to be pretty hard to change that fallacy - ooh, would that be swaying, too - I leave it at that.)


Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now. I'll be back with more thoughts as soon as I can, but unfortunately I'm today pretty much caught up with violin concertos and vocal fugues... I mean, daisies and lilies. I'll try my best, though.

ps. Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I believe that saucemanpoet . . . I mean, The Saucepan Man is innocent.

Why? Because I notice things. Things ordinary people wouldn't notice. Yeah, yeah, you might think, 'Are you the Seer?' and all such nonsense. I'm not, okay? I just read carefully.

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.

With this said, I am quite convinced that some of the Villagers clamouring for Saucie's death are, in fact, Werewolves.

Yeah, I'm looking at you, Glirdan. You too, malkatoj. And, oh, Formendacil, the Sharingan has not passed by you.

I'll be back with my lengthier analysis.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The votes have to tell something. At least I hope they do.

Day 1 ; Day 2 ; Day 3 (thus far)

Formendacil -> Valier ; Sauce (8)
Wayne -> Formendacil ; no vote ; Wayne
Nilpaurion -> Nilp ; malkatoj (1)
--Valier -> Wayne ; Garin (3)
--Abercrombie -> Nilp
Cailin -> Wayne ; Garin (9)
Mormegil -> Valier ; Cailín (4)
Sauce -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (5)
TGWBS -> Abercrombie ; Naria (6)
Garin -> Valier ; Shelob (12)
Spawn -> Abercrombie ; Shelob (7)
--Aiwendil -> Abercrombie
Kath -> Abercrombie ; Valier (10)
--Shelob -> Garin ; Cailín (11)
Malkatoj -> Wayne ; Kath (2) ; Sauce
Glirdan -> Sauce ; no vote ; Sauce
Naria -> Nilp ; no vote
Márcolië -> no vote ; no vote
Gil-Galad -> no vote ; no vote ; Wayne

Those who have voted for a known innocent who got lynched are bolded. Those who have voted for a known innocent who got killed by wolves are italicized. The number behind Day 2's votes is the order in which the votes were cast. Day 1's votes are already in chronological order.

I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.

Now, there are too many of those who haven't voted on both days, and it's all pretty confusing with bluffing, double bluffing, triple bluffing... But I believe that there was at least one wolf who stayed behind on both days to observe how the voting shall go. One that fills those criterias and looks pretty suspicious anyway is Glirdan. The other one is Cailín. Statistically speaking, it's probable that there's also a wolf in the bolded/ italicized group, but I can't really tell whom I'd suspect the most of them. At this point, I weill definitely keep an eye on those two. Oh, and since my logics have failed me thus far, if I only have time, I think I'll go and make a case against someone I really haven't suspected. Maybe I then have a better chance to find a wolf.

What about Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes, Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues). In the end, if it turns out to be a bad choice, I'll rather be killed by wolves who did good job hiding right under our noses than by wolves who acted suspiciously all the time but to whom we always gave a second chance. I don't know whether I'd like to have a double lynching or not, though. Depends on who are the lynching candidates, I guess.

Originally Posted by Nilp

I believe that saucemanpoet . . .

I thought that sounded familiar...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

NIGHT deaths, DAY votes, and reasons for such things. Innocents in underline.

NIGHT 1

Meneltarmacil - moderator

Because.

DAY 1

Form: I'm voting for ++ Valier. Queen Beruthiel must go!

Wayne: ++FORMENDACIL

I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.

Nilp: ++Nilp. Who else?

Valier: ++Wayne. Well I just have to say I don't like wimps, or nerds or well most things besides lovely coconuts.(Giggle) The Goblin must go! (Giggle)

Abercrombie: Best go with the one that has already provided "conclusive" evidence of his guilt: ++NILPAURION FELAGUND

Cailín: ++WAYNETHEGOBLIN. Your vote for Formendacil and your defensiveness doesn't sit right with me.

morm: ++Valier. If for no other reason than the giggling and to get things moving a bit.

SpM: For her rather forceful reaction to my pressing her for evidence and for naming easy targets before going on to cast what I consider to be a "safe" vote (at least for today) for someone else, I will cast my vote for: ++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN

daga'y: WHY MUST YOU PEOPLE PERSIST IN PERSECUTING THE POOR NUTTER [Nilp]?

++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN. I was suspicious before, but SpM's comments distilled that suspicion.

Garin: Well, I am slightly inclined towards Abercrombie but the coin tells me to vote for Valier. If this turns out to be wrong you can lynch the coin. ++Valier

spawn: If your best is to vote for someone who said he won't be here during the rest of the Day and who is a safe vote because the odds are that he won't be lynched today, I'd like to know what is your worst. Besides, you said you didn't want to vote for Wayne because he already had one vote. Why did you then want to vote for Nilp although he, too, had one vote?

Well, I'll make a tie between Abercrombie and Valier. Let's see how others react to that.

++Abercrombie

Aiwendil: I can't say I see much reason to think that either [Valier or Abercrombie] is a wolf, but then (it being early) I don't have much reason to think that anyone in particular is a wolf. As I indicated before, I am very slightly inclined to think Abercrombie more likely to be guilty. Therefore: ++AbercrombieofRohan

Kath: As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive. ++ABERCROMBIE OF ROHAN

Shelob: I don't want to bandwagon (vote for Aber) and I don't want to tie it (vote for Valier) so I'm just going to vote for the person I have the worst feeling for right now, and that's still: ++Garin

malka: So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN for reasons I explained earlier.

Glirdan: ++Saucepan Man. Simply because something about him is not sitting right with me. I also don't want to be a part of a bandwagon and I don't want to cause a double lynch.

Naria: Sorry if you're an ordo....you just too crazzzy!! ++Nilp

NIGHT 2

Aiwendil - innocent

Cailín says: He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought Abercrombie nor Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in Saucy's reasoning. He thought Glirdan’s Form - Wayne - Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.

DAY 2

Nilp: malka, and her vote for Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie? ++malkatoj

malka: I think the people who voted for Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's SpM, TGWBS, Spawn, Aiwendil, and Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set Crombie's death in stone. ++KATH

Valier: My suspisions of Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later! ++Garin

morm: I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage. ++Cailin

SpM: ++SHELOB. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way.

daga'y: These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... ++NARIA

spawn: Shelob preferred random accusations to evidence, but since Sauce wanted reasoned posts, she decided to sit back and stay out of the conversation. Also, her vote for Garin seemed at least to me like a safe choice.

"It won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie." ~Shelob about her vote.

Besides, both options are generally considered as suspicious, right...?

Shelob also defended Kath and Glirdan.

++SHELOB

Form: ++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.

Cai: Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote Marcolie, then - after Mormegil’s vote - wishes to vote for Valier and after SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents. ++GARIN

Kath: I would say the person who has voted with the least reason is Valier, and because of that: ++VALIER

Shelob: since I don't really want to die. Vote: ++Cailin

Garin: ++Shelob Sorry, dear but better you than me/

NIGHT 3

Valier - Innocent

Sauce says: I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter [edit: Ranger]. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double[sic]-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

~*~

Analysis later. Sorry to keep you waiting, but this will take a while.

[Garin]

Form says: No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

I'm not swayed too much by that but that comment may come to haunt you.
Nilp always confuses me with a suicidal run and then a dedication to the village with some real analysis.
I find both somewhat innocent but that is off the record.

[Garin]

Spawn says: What about Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes, Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues).

I agree with this completely, that was very odd and almost seemed prearranged.

[mormegil]

I think I know why we, the loudmouths, are still alive. It's because if they killed off the handful of us that talk a lot this village would be silent!!!

I think I shall stick with Cailin today. My observation earlier has solidified in my mind and I can see now her wolfish influence taking root in our councils. My suspision of others still holds and will continue on but currently there seems to be a lack of action so I will go against my wont and vote early, meaning before the final hour.

A personal side note. Tomorrow I may be going for those who are perpetually silent and haven't contributed much to our village. At a certain point they will need to be cleared out to remove some of the confusion and ambiguity. So I will start with the most guilty looking quiet one and move on. Probably Formen right now...I just don't understand him at all.

++Cailin

[Gil-Galad]

alright i sneaked back on


to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling us

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

We don't have anything concrete on either [Wayne] or Gil ...

As it happens, I agree with that. They are acting strangely, but they always do. There's really not much to go on at all. Having said that, we are getting to the stage (or at least I am) where a vote for one of them is possibly on the cards on the basis that I have little else to go on and I would rather be rid of them than some others here. Neither are helping much and I don't believe either of them to be Gifted.

I still believe malkatoj innocent (though misguided). It is possible that she was pulling an elaborate bluff with her vote for Aiwendil and her subsequent admission that she typed his name by mistake instead of Kath, whom she says that meant to vote for. It is also possible that Aiwendil's name had stuck in her mind, having been involved in his murder the night before and that it was a genuine mistake by a Wolf. But I think both of those scenarios unlikely and therefore will not (in the absence of something more) be voting for her today.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

That leaves me with SpM. Not because he was the lead people to bandwagon, because he was the first to vote for both Shelob and Crombie (bandwaggoning not his fault) ...

Come now, that is poor logic Glirdan. If you are voting on the basis of the "bandwaggons" against Abercrombie and Shelob, yet you accept that I did not intentionally start them, you should be looking to those riding in the waggons, not the one who cast the first vote. Besides, the votes against Shelob can hardly be described as a bandwaggon. She died on the basis of three votes. Had more people turned up to vote (yourself included ), things might have turned out differently.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

... and I think that he's been a little over defensive in his last few posts

Ah, that old chestnut. Can you blame me, given some of the reasons that have been put forward in accusation of me? And really, I was feeling more angry than defensive. Although I stand by what I said.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Not to mention something is still not sitting right.

I wish you would explain this. If you are referring to my Day 1 approach (which is when your suspicions of me started), that was a combination of role-play and an attempt to stir things up. I would be interested to know just what isn't sitting right about me with you.

Funnily enough, my suspicions of Glirdan have actually lessened today. I don't like his reasons for voting for me, but they do seem to me to be the kind of standard reasons that an innocent with very little to go on would put forward to justify a vote.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I cannot for the life of me understand the current suspicion towards SpM. I see nothing in him that makes me think he is a wolf. I think there is wolfish influence here and it makes me look at Glirdan, again, and Malka.

Thank you mormegil. For what it's worth, I can see nothing suspicious about you either. Most of what you have said has struck a chord with me, or at least seemed sensible. I will no doubt be accused, for saying that, of trying to attach myself to someone who is under little suspicion at the moment, but so be it. I know that you, at least, do have a mind of your own.

As for the current briefings against me, I did expect myself to be under some suspicion today. Indeed, selfishly, I was quite glad of it at the end of Day 2 as I thought that it might prevent me from being killed overnight. But I did not expect it to be expressed quite so strongly. I agree that there may be a Wolfish influence here. My problem is that I am inclined to think that both of those who have voted for me so far are innocent. I have been looking back to try to establish where this all began. Glirdan and, to al lesser extent, malkatoj, have expressed doubts about me all along. Other than them, the only ones who have referred to the likelihood of me being suspected today are Cailin and TBWBS:

Originally Posted by Cailin in post #151

Dancing Spawn and Saucepan Man... twice you now voted for the innocent who was lynched at the end of the Day. This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds.

Originally Posted by TGWBS in post #153

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late.

Both might be viewed as attempts to reinforce the inevitable suspicion of me in an oblique manner, without making any direct accusation. Of the two, I find TGWBS the most trustworthy. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder about Cailin. Which brings me to this:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Regarding Cailin I think I've put my finger on it. She's come forward with some decent ideas and seems to slowly be pulling here and pushing there. Slowly and quietly she is trying to influence us. Not as overtly as many think SpM is but more dangerously. She hasn't really committed herself to any one thing but seems to want to influence us and sow the seeds of confusion.

Funny how you and I keep thinking along the same lines. I was beginning to think along the same lines when I reviewed today’s posts before taking my midday nap (ie going to sleep for the RL night). She did the same, to an extent, yesterday with Shelob. She was the first to note that Shelob’s Day 1 vote could be seen as a safe Wolfish vote, although to be fair this was a matter of timing. I had noticed the same thing myself before reading her thoughts. But she maintained her suspicion of Shelob for most of the Day before going on to dismiss it when the case against Shelob began to gather speed. Perhaps she is trying the same tactic, in an even more subtle manner, with me today. But I agree that she is intelligent (and therefore potentially cunning) and capable of great subtlety, if a Wolf. I do now have some concern over her.

Originally Posted by Nilp

First, I'll say that I'm convinced The Saucepan Man is innocent (although the manner of presentation is a bit unimaginative .)

Glad that you caught it. I could not resist. I feel the same way about you, incidentally. And, if anyone wants to know why Nilp and I trust each other, read our more non-sensical posts more carefully.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

I am inclined to believe that. You may still be the Cobbler, but I don’t believe you to be a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?

A fair point, although the same applies if I am innocent. Sad though it may seem, I really only know one way to play this game.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.

Yes. Please do look closer. In particular, try to look further than my traditional style and my unfortunate voting pattern (in which others undoubtedly share, whether that be known by now or not).

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.

I really see very little reason for worry as far as dancing spawn is concerned. Of course, she, like me, has voted for two known innocents. But I prefer to look at the whole picture. Despite those votes, she seems to me to be talking nothing but good sense.

Originally Posted by Nilp

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.

This makes a lot of sense to me.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

I'd believe that the wolves don't care who will be lynched as long it won't be one of their own. Voting for an innocent can make one look really bad, but really, what does it tell? Ordinary villagers don't know who the wolves are, so the odds are that they will make a mistake and vote for a fellow innocent. However, the wolves are very well informed who's guilty and who's not, and because voting for someone whose role will be revealed at the end of a Day is risky since those voters are bound to get some attention the next Day, it would be wise to stay out of that and vote for someone else - even a fellow wolf.

And so does this.

So where does that leave me? My concern about Cailin is growing. I can see myself voting for her today. I would also not be averse to the idea of lynching Wayne or Gil-Galad, or even Formendacil, for their unhelpful contributions and will not hesitate to do so if it is me or one of them. And I could also countenance lynching any of the others who are singularly failing to contribute to our discussions. Yes, that means you Naria and Marcolie. While it goes somewhat against what I said at the beginning, given the way things have gone so far in this village, I would rather get rid of one of them that risk lynching a Gifted or a more helpful villager. My only concern is that one of them could just be a Gifted (although they are doing a good job of hiding it if they are).

And where is Kath today? I am coming round to the view of her being innocent and, as such, would welcome her contribution to the debate.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling us

OK, I take up some (only some) of what I said about Gil being unhelpful. This echoes something that Glirdan said earler. And the more I think about it, the stranger I find it that Wayne voted for himself. It seems out of character. Doesn't he normally get rather upset about being lynched? I can see a Wolfish Wayne deciding that voting for himself might get him off the hook.

So, as matters stand, I have pretty much narrowed down my vote for today to Wayne and Cailin. Which is quite good for me really. I will vote to save myself if I have to, unless it involves voting for someone who I think is innocent and useful or who might be Gifted, as (my contribution to date notwithstanding) I do believe that I can still be of some use to this village. And if I do have to vote to save myself, I would rather do do by voting for someone whom I strongly suspect than for someone who I have little clue about or someone that I think innocent but unhelpful.

Only problem is, it is unlikely that both cailin and Wayne are Wolves - unless Cailin was trying to pull off a very bold strategy on Day 1. Hence, even if I was attracted by the double-lynch idea (which I am not, as it happens), I would not counsel double-lynching these two.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

*deep breath*

Form is useless in this game so far. Even if he's innocent (which I rather doubt), Darwin may justify us in killing him.

Glirdan has attacked Sauce not once, but twice--Form, too, I forgot, attacked the poor lawman twice. Of course, his DAY 1 vote may be seen as a safe one, since it has no chance of taking power. But still . . .

malka's mistaken vote for Aiwendil yesterDAY . . . hmmm . . . Well, I did almost vote for players that didn't actually join in the last game, so . . . I don't know. Still not entirely innocent, to me. Less so, since she's attacking an innocent. But she is safe from me toDAY.

Well, Cailín:

This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds. (Cailín)

Things are going the wrong way, with two innocents lynched. That's why people are blaming the 'Pied Piper.' But . . . this is the first mention of this whole 'bandwaggon leader Sauce', right? Hmmm . . . considering the effects of her words, as mormegil said, this is pretty subtle manipulation. Creepy. 'This is no accusation,' indeed.

Now, daga'y:

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late. (he is short)

This seems innocent to me, sorry. Not because he's been defending me, but because it casts no accusation, unless its aim is to put into the minds of the others--the ones easily manipulated into doing bandwaggons, may I add--that this metal-clad chap killed two of their fellows. Or perhaps I'm putting words where they are not.

To be dramatic, these three, Cailín, Glirdan, and Form, might form a firestorm that would consume Sauce--and probably the rest of the loudmouths. I'm for lynching one of them.

Well, since Cailín already had a vote, a vote for her would seem most useful at the moment.

++Cailín

(Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart. )

[the guy who be short]

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

But before I go on and investigate for myself her possible lycanthropy, I have previous points to bring up.

At the moment, I am most in favour of lynching Glirdan. He gives no reasoning for his lack of logic, and very little rational reasoning for casting suspicion on SpM, his odd feelings notwithstanding, of course.

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying.

Wayne's suicide attempted could be viewed in many ways, and I don't know which to opt for. It's strange, as his name had really been mentioned very little beforehand. Perhaps a wolf feeling the pressure and trying to pull a Nilp. But perhaps simply a lost innocent. To be completely honest, I don't know at the moment, both ideas seem likely.

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

What I find interesting is that I mentioned looking into the quieter villagers, and suddenly this happens.


Now, off for a look at Cailin.

[Kath]

I'm here SpM! Though this will only be a short visit I will be back later when I have a nice stretch of time to go through everything.

However since I am here for a few moments I would like to just say a couple of thing.

Glirdan (I think) you can't accuse SpM of beginning a bandwagon. That doesn't work. The first person to vote can't be bandwagonning!

Gil and Wayne's votes coming so close together is odd. Wayne could be trying to pull a Nilp (and seemingly succeeding, as I don't think anyone but Gil has voted for him?) but then do we consider him innocent as we do Nilp right now or do we consider him guilty and trying to bluff his way out of suspicion. The latter would seem odd as he hasn't been under much but it is possible.

morm - I'm not keen on double lynches. Yes they can be necessary but simply to take out quiet villagers? I know part of what you said was just to make a point but I'd rather give people a chance rather than lynch them straight off (and yes that's partly because I've been pretty quiet!).

That's about it except for one plea. Please can we not argue between ourselves too much? Querying the actions of person is fair enough, it must be done, but do it without acting as though you will suspect this person for all time unless they answer your questions immediately and absolutely. And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily - it's hard, I know, but we have to keep calm! Fighting between ourselves only serves to give the wolves a good laugh.

Back in a few hours.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes thereafter

1. Wayne - Wayne (Wayne - 1)
2. Wayne - Gil (Wayne - 2)
3. SpM - Malka (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
4. SpM - Glirdan (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
5. Cailin - morm (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 1)
6. Cailin - Nilp (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 2)