Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Farael]

It was a long night in the village and no-one got much sleep. Thirteen innocents cowered in their beds. An intrepid ranger crouched outside the door of one of such innocents, ready to risk his life to protect him. A brave hunter stalked one of his suspects, hoping to see him turn into a wolf and get a chance to slain him. Yet, unseen by all, the three wolves met to plan their nightly murder.

This night, even the best efforts of the Ranger and Hunter were futile. As the villagers met the following morning, they noticed one of them was missing.

“It’s me!! I’m dead at last!!” said Nilpaurion Felagund. Glirdan added that the voices in his head agreed with Nilp. Formendacil noted that it was yet to be recorded a case of a dead person being able to inform others of his death after having passed away. Malkatoj argued that he(she) had performed another miracle, yet Kath settled the discussion by saying that in her life-long investigation of the paranormal she had seen too many nutcases and too few dead people talking about their deaths.

“Well, let’s kill him if so he wishes! He is useless anyway!” screamed Mormegil.

“That is completely out of the question, it would be premeditated murder” answered The Saucepan Man and the whole village sunk into a yelling match.

The yelling might have lasted until nightfall if, in a sudden bout of giggles, Valier had not stepped away from the screams only to hear Shelob comment “I might have not been in this village for too long, but aren’t we missing our woodwright?”

Dreading what they may find, the villagers made their way to Aiwendil’s house. The first thing they noted was that the house no longer stood where it had. In its place there was the trunk of a massive tree and rubble. Not even Valier managed a giggle this time. A valiant effort to hopefully save the woodwright was conducted by The Guy Who Be Short, Garin and his pigs yet the tree trunk was too heavy to lift and it had obviously fallen right on Aiwendil’s room. “The dolphins say he was mercifully sleeping before he got crushed,” Said Naria “The sharks talk about a bloody death, but they always do”

Gil-Galad approached the trunk, amused by two lines at a 90 degree angle from each other, only to notice that it was actually an L and there was a message written on the fallen tree.

“POOR WOODWRIGHT, SOUNDLY ASLEEP AFTER DOING OUR WORK EASYER YESTERDAY. HE SURELY NOT EXPECTED US TO COME AFTER HIM AFTER SUCH FAVOUR. TOO BAD, WE WERE LOOKING FORWARD TO SOME FIGHTING.

-THE WEREWOLVES.”

An innocent villager has been killed by the werewolves.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian
Formendacil- Village historian
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house.

Wolves: 3
Villagers: 14

It is now Day 2. Ranger and Hunter may PM each other, wolves may not. Villagers, you may talk your way into another lynching.

[Kath]

Wow. I'm never here on time!

This will be short but reading through from yesterday I wanted to put you straight on something morm.

So Kath does some analysis and seems fairly convinced of things, then goes and says 'well I have no ideas of my own so I'll follow everybody else and vote abercrombie'. Interesting! I suggest we look closely at her tomorrow.

Nope. Kath didn't get as far through the analysis as she wanted. Because of this she did not want to vote for anyone she had found suspicious so far, as analysing further down the list might produce someone she really thought suspicious. As far as she had got she found spawn the most innocent looking and decided to go with her ideas.

If you feel you must pursue this then feel free.

Hopefully I'll be back a little later but I might not post again til tomorrow.

[Valier]

An Ode to Aiwendil:

I've got a lovely bunch of coconut, Doodle doo. There they are standing in a row, ripe ones, raw ones, ones as big as your head......


I was thoroughly upset with Aiwendil yesterday for cutting down one of my precious coconut trees, and killing innocent Crombie in the process...But for him to get killed in the night by a pack of raving werewolves, well that's just (sniff) sad!

So I will try to put aside the giggles (Giggle). We should put our heads together like coconuts and find us some furry terrorists.(Giggle) oops sorry!

[Gil-Galad]

now i am seriously doubting the law... no offence of course Saucey-man



(( sorry, yesterday i was gone all day helping my brother move and the most of the day my interent was down))

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

now i am seriously doubting the law...

On the contrary, it is precisely because the village resorted to a lynch mob mentality, rather than applying the rigorous tenets of the law, that an innocent villager died yesterday. I counselled against it, but to no avail.

I rue my own part in Abercrombie's death bitterly, as voting to kill one of our number on such thin evidence goes against all that I have been taught. But little did I expect her to attract so many votes after I had cast my own vote for her.

Ah well, perhaps the voting record will be of some use. here it is:

1. Formendacil for Valier (Valier-1)
2. Waynethe Goblin for Formendacil (Valier-1; Formendacil-1)
3. Nilpaurion for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1)
4. Valier for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-1, Wayne-1)
5. AbercrombieofRohan for Nilpaurion (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-1)
6. Cailin for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-1; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
7. Mormegil for Valier (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2)
8. Saucepan Man for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-1)
9. TGWBS for AbercrombieofRohan (Valier-2; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
10. Garin for Valier (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-2)
11. Spawn for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-3)
12. Aiwendil for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-4)
13. Kath for Abercrombie (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5)
14. Shelob for Garin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-2, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
15. Malkatoj for WaynetheGoblin (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1)
16. Glirdan for SpM (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-2, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)
17. Naria for Nilpaurion (Valier-3; Formendacil-1, Nilpaurion-3, Wayne-3, Abercrombie-5, Garin-1, SpM-1)

Did not vote: Márcolië Lamen and Gil-Galad.

Make of it what you will. I will be back later with my own thoughts.

[Cailín]

Poor Aiwendil. And Crombie. Two innocent villagers already lost…

I more or less understand why there was wagoning against Crombie yesterDay, and yet I feel I have to point something out. Mormegil, I get what you were trying to say yesterDay now. And obviously, I even agreed with you, at least, said the same thing using different words. However, I find it quite hypocritical that you first accuse Malka and me because we were ‘going for the easy kill’ (I’m not quite sure what that means anyway – surely you would never find killing easy?) and then you state you wish the weirdos out of the way first, too. I’m not saying I would vote for you because of this, but I rather demand an explanation, because by targeting Malka and me you might also have been going for easy kills (and voting for Valier does not make you appear any less guilty).

Um, yeah, aside from mildly attacking Mormegil, here follows a brief voting analysis:

Formendacil > Valier
WayneTheGoblin > Formendacil
Nilpaurion > Nilpaurion
Valier > WayneTheGoblin
Abercrombie > Nilpaurion
Cailín > WayneTheGoblin
mormegil > Valier
The Saucepan Man > Abercrombie
TGWBS > Abercrombie
Garin > Valier
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant > Abercrombie
Aiwendil > Abercrombie
Kath > Abercrombie
Shelob > Garin
Malkatoj > WayneTheGoblin
Glirdan > The Saucepan Man
Naria > Nilpaurion

Aiwendil broke the tie in favour of Abercrombie (or not really in favour I suppose), which would normally be suspicious, yet the wolves chose to kill him anyway. That is rather odd. Normally, the people who gather many votes on Day 1 are all innocents, but I’m not sure whether Valier was not a really lucky guess.
Shelob's vote for Garin stands out and so does Glirdan’s vote for SpM, but not in a way that makes me immediately think them wolvish. For now. Naria voted for Nilpaurion, which is a safe vote I suppose, especially at that time, so we should definitely look into that. Further, I am now going to check Aiwendil's posts to see if there was any other reason for the wolves to kill him so early, other than that he might very well have become a threat later on.

Oh I am about to cross-post with Saucy, so you'd better check his sum-up of the votes: it is much more detailed.

[Cailín]

Aiwendil's posts:

Mostly it’s just guessing and reasoning and waiting for evidence. He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought Abercrombie nor Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in Saucy's reasoning. He thought Glirdan’s Form – Wayne – Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available. I cannot think of anything else, please point it out if I have missed anything.

Well, I’m getting quite sleepy by now. I hope you will all manage without me until tomorrow morning (that is – morning in my world under the water).

I shall try to come up with some theories when I feel less hazy again.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few things that occur to me from the things said and the votes cast yesterday.

Following my own vote for Abercrombie, there were four votes for her in relatively quick succession. Of those still living, these votes were cast by TGWBS, dancing spawn and Kath. Spawn brought her level with Valier, while Kath sealed her fate (although there were still up to 6 votes still to be cast at that stage). Could there be a Wolf there? I doubt a Wolf would vote for an innocent when it looked like she was going to die (and be revealed as innocent), which would point more towards TGWBS and spawn, although I have little other reason to suspect either of them at present.

If Valier turns out to be a Wolf, then Kath's vote for Abercrombie will start to look very suspicious.

There were a few votes which might be described as "throwaway" votes at the end there. At the time cast, the votes of Shelob, Glirdan and Naria were unlikely to result in the death of anyone, and (assuming that there was no Wolf in danger) would have been "safe" votes for Wolves. Possibly even Wolf on Wolf votes (although that obviously does not apply as far as Glirdan's vote is concerned ).

Valier and Naria both voted with little or no explanation. Valier's vote for Wayne was one which would be quite easy to explain if he died and turned out to be innocent, while Naria's was a safe "throwaway" vote. I am not sure how much store to set by this, though, as I would expect the Wolves to go out of their way to justify their votes.

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

There was some discussion yesterday concerning what we should do about those who arouse suspicion by their very nature, but who contribute little to our discussions. I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

Finally, for now, a response to TGWBS' question:

SpM redeems himself a little in my eyes both with his vote, and his claim that his suggestion of putting himself about the law was "bait." Though bait for what, I don't know. Care to extrapolate?

I deliberately asserted that I was above suspicion, knowing that it was a ridiculous thing to say, so ridiculous in fact that most people would just ignore it. My thought was that only those who were looking for some reason to cast suspicion on me would pick up on it. Since I know that I am innocent, that would suggest possible Wolfish behaviour to me. A few people commented on it, but only Kath made something of an issue of it (and, indeed, it seems to have led her to cast suspicion on me). It is not much, I accept, and I would not vote for her solely based on that, but it might mean something in the days to come.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I think [Aiwendil] was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.

I think this the most likely explanation.

It is possibsle that it was a clumsy attempt to frame Valier, Formendacil and/or Wayne, given that he expressed interest in Glirdan's crazy triumvirate theory. But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

[Glirdan]

Alas!! Those voices in my head were trying to tell me someone was missing!! To bad they were saying it was Nilp who the Wolves attacked. Maybe I should stop listening to those voices. They're starting to creep me out. And out woodwright is dead!! This is indeed a sad Day. Although I didn't quite like Aiwendil, he was one whom I never suspected. We need to find these tortoises...I mean Woles quickly!!

I deliberately asserted that I was above suspicion, knowing that it was a ridiculous thing to say, so ridiculous in fact that most people would just ignore it. My thought was that only those who were looking for some reason to cast suspicion on me would pick up on it. Since I know that I am innocent, that would suggest possible Wolfish behaviour to me. A few people commented on it, but only Kath made something of an issue of it (and, indeed, it seems to have led her to cast suspicion on me). It is not much, I accept, and I would not vote for her solely based on that, but it might mean something in the days to come.

Well SpM, I must say that that was a smart and daring move and that I did question it when I first saw it. However, you could very well being pulling a double bluff on us and I wouldn't put it past you to do that. You're definetly smart enough to pull it off. That just made me even more uneasy about you.

I must agree with Cailin's theory on why the Wolves attacked Aiwendil. He was smart and also not under suspicion. The perfect target. By attacking him, they left us no clues pointing towards anyone in particular and leaving us back at square one.

I'm going to go back and scan through some of the post's left by the deceased. I shall be back later.

*RL Comment* If I'm not back, it's because I got kicked off the computer and I won't be posting much for the next few Days because I go back to school starting tommorrow. Don't take my absence as suspicious. *RL Comment Ended*

[Shelob]

But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

The most obvious reason "why not", and the one you're "Hmmm" seems to favour, would be that they were wolves. Doesn't that seem overly perfect and nice? It's far more likely that if this were an attempt to frame Valier/Form/Wayne then killing Glirdan or Kath would also draw attention to a real wolf. It seems to me that with this kill they'd either want to follow through on hints/suspicions of a gifted villager or kill someone who would get us looking in the wrong direction.

Assuming that that's the case we can probably rule out that the wolves thought they'd found a gifted in Aiwendil. Which means they're Probably* trying to send us in the wrong direction. If they chose the Valier/Form/Wyane trio to cast suspicion on then clearly killing someone who seemed to agree with it would be a good way to cast said suspicion. However if they also killed someone who had a real wolf in their suspicions, or someone with whom a real wolf has alligned themselves killing that person would also bring into the spotlight the real wolf they're associated with. Aiwendil was probably just misfortunate enough to be in a position where the wolves could kill him without putting any of their number in danger. The safest kill which still accomplished something.

(*It's a matter of the Bluff/Double Bluff, personally I doubt it's worth it for them to put any of their number in danger so early but since it's possible we shouldn't discount it completely)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

However, you could very well being pulling a double bluff on us and I wouldn't put it past you to do that.

How could it work as a double bluff? It hardly works as the single bluff that I intended it to be.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by SPM

There was some discussion yesterday concerning what we should do about those who arouse suspicion by their very nature, but who contribute little to our discussions. I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

I totally disagree on your "Policy" some of us are not as anylitical as others and the only time votes are validated is if the person killed is a wolf. Other than that reasons for voting are just feelings one gets from reading others posts and from the position they are in. I thought in this game that everyone had picked fun occupations and it would be more laid back..I was wrong! The only reason any Ordo would vote for someone was because they thought they were a wolf, some times giving a reason why is no better than saying nothing.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

The most obvious reason "why not", and the one you're "Hmmm" seems to favour, would be that they were wolves. Doesn't that seem overly perfect and nice?

Quite possibly. But it is interesting how Glirdan put forward this theory at a time when Formendacil, Valier and Wayne each had one vote and only two other votes had been cast. Wayne and Valier go on to garner quite a few votes. And then, overnight, one of those who saw some attraction in the theory gets killed.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Valier

I totally disagree on your "Policy" some of us are not as anylitical as others and the only time votes are validated is if the person killed is a wolf ... The only reason any Ordo would vote for someone was because they thought they were a wolf, some times giving a reason why is no better than saying nothing.

The purpose of my proposed "Policy" was actually to try to prevent those who are not as analytical as others being lynched for that reason alone. But I don't think that it is unreasonable to ask that people give some kind of reasoning for their votes. It is helpful to see how others are thinking. It doesn't have to be a detailed analysis. But something is better than nothing.

[Shelob]

But it is interesting how Glirdan put forward this theory at a time when Formendacil, Valier and Wayne each had one vote and only two other votes had been cast.

Um, not that I can see. The timing doesn't really play into it so far as I can tell. Glirdan would have made the comment when he thought of it, and it was probably the fact that, with so few votes, the votes for Form, Valier and Wayne formed a noticable triangle that made him think of it. That fact in itself is rather interesting, but when we'd so little to go on the more interesting aspect of it would be the timing and reasons for the votes. Even that couldn't tell us a whole lot even, but perhaps more than the timing of the comment would.

[Valier]

I do agree SPM that players should give some reason even if it is that their vote is rushed, But I don't like the part about a vote or reasons for a vote have to be valid because we would only find out that there reason was valid if they voted correctly and lynched a wolf. With saying that I think we should just hope against hope that players come up with some reason. On with the game! (Giggle)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

Um, not that I can see. The timing doesn't really play into it so far as I can tell.

At that time, quite a bit of suspicion had already been cast in Wayne's direction, if not towards Valier. My point is that it's possible Glirdan, if he is a Wolf, has subtly been trying to direct the voting towards one or more of these three without actually voting for any of them himself. Another point to note is that he said that he would probably not be voting for me but rather for one of his other suspects (Valier or Wayne) - but then ended up voting for me. A vote which I have already noted might be seen as a "safe" vote for a Wolf to cast.

I admit that it's not much by itself, but it's something to add to the pot.

Originally Posted by Valier

But I don't like the part about a vote or reasons for a vote have to be valid because we would only find out that there reason was valid if they voted correctly and lynched a wolf.

Ah, I get your meaning and it's a fair point. By "valid", I meant something with some kind of substance to it - something more, for example, than just voting for someone because of the way they are behaving when they always act like that, or voting for someone based on their occupation.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, well. I'm still alive. Cool!

Well, first, let's question a few answers, and vice-versa:

Finally, are these Bethiril and Narvi perhaps codenames? Should we jumble them, rearrange them and propose some wacked theory concerning their real identities? (Cai)

So far as I can recall, of all the people who has ever played WW, only CoD, Fordim, Aman, Mithalwen, Saurreg, Perks, and Esgal may have an idea who Bethiril or Narvi are. But they're not here, so there.

Nilp - I'm not going to bother. It's obvious. Nilp is being himself. Expect my wrath to full upon ye, ye who vote for the mentally unstable. (mäuschen der sein kurz)

Why? Do you feel sympathy for this perpetual (and Infamous) Ordo? (We've both been Shiriffs, yes, but a Shiriff is just an Ordo with an Ordo buddy.) Or . . . something else?

NIGHT 2's death has already been analysed adequately (to me, at least) by Cailín. Hmmm, DAY 1 voting patterns. Interesting how the Abercrombie bandwagon was formed in such a short amount of time. Sauce started the whole thing, but daga'y was the first to declare his wrath upon her. Problem is, so far I trust most of the members of the said bandwaggon. Problem with lynching innocents is that the lynch mob could be innocent themselves.

But what about the other, smaller, failed bandwaggons? Hmmm, must go French class now; I'm terribly late. Au revoir!

And don't worry, there's no sugar!

No, wait, I meant I'll be back later.

[Márcolië Lamen]

*runs in panting*

Wow, werewolves, is that what I heard? I was off working on the gospel of the flying spaghetti monster, and unable to make it on here, sorry (read for rl: my computer was broken and I had no access to the internet for 2 days)

Wow, I've been trying to catch up, because even missing a bit makes it hard to return to.

I really have no ideas now, trying to follow the stories of what's happened vary so much.

Of course everyone part of a bandwagon draws suspision, as does those who don't vote, or vote randomly. So basically we're all suspicious.

The one thing that is seeming to be odd to me now is that the one who broke the tie causing the death of an innocent was also killed. That seems like there must be a reason. To me seems like may be trying to make us suspect the Form – Wayne – Valier wolf triangle. Which leads me to trying to figure out who would benefit most from that. Unless its a double bluff. It looks like its also trying to cast suspision on Glirdan mainly. Which still makes me question, who would try to get that suspision.

At the momement Glirdan is the name which stands out most, but as one which someone is trying to hide behind.

I'm sure it'd be more useful for me to have been here rather than just listening to the story, but as the circumstances has left us we must deal, from both sides. Sorry again for the issue.

-Marcolie

[mormegil]

Interesting! I seem to be agreeing with SpM. That is unusual. His analysis seems fair and I agree. My suspicion of Glidan has increased and in post 90 some things strike me as odd. He seems a bit over dramatic at the death of Aiwendil, which is a blow to our village. He also seems to be purposefully confusing but not to an extreme.

Originally Posted by SpM

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

This is one point where I agree completely. It raised some red flags in my mind to do such an analysis yesterday and seem to suspect me and others but then simply follow Spawn and vote at a crucial time thus sealing the fate. Today she seemed worried about how I brought that up yesterday and immediately went to explain it. Seems a bit defensive to me.

Valier seems oddly serious today after getting some suspicion cast on her. I still think I will be looking her way today. Also, she seemed unwilling to listen to SpM's logical 'Policy'.

I don't know why but something about Cailin isn't sitting right with me and I think I will watch her closely too.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

And after, this I won't be back, sorry. If Eru hadn't changed the shape of Ambar maybe I wouldn't have these timezone problems. Curse you, Tar-Calion!

I've been chewing on the previous DAY's voting records, and this is the only thing that approximates an analysis that I've come up with. Right now, I find myself suspicious of (in order):

malka, and her vote for Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie?

Garin, and his vote for Valier. Yet another case of pushing for a tie? Although . . . there were still a lot of votes at that time.

Glirdan, and his vote for SpM. Well, it seemed pretty useless.

Well, my vote for today is:

++malkatoj

Ugh, I feel utterly useless.

[Garin]

Well, I don't feel we are closer to finding a wolf. The first day is random but the wolves' choice should be telling. I'm not sure what it tells. I agree with others that those who made isolated votes should be watched closely. Votes late and unexplained are even more suspicious than votes for the innocent. I am tempted to redeem my vote for Valier, if only to be consistent. There are others that seem wolvish, but perhaps I should just go down my list.
It has been mentioned that I picked apart occupations that were chosen prior to roles being given out by the mod. Well, we have nothing to go on during the first day, and I was really aiming at wolvish personalities. Remember, role-playing can shield a person. I mentioned I have no social manners in my occupation just to cover my behind and protect myself regardless and prior to my role. You see, I have had litttle luck on other islands. It is a good cover to make excuses for odd behaviour and it pays off if one of you becomes a werewolf. Nonetheless, I chose a noble career with which I collect quite a purse and plus have pigs that can sniff out lycans as well as they find fungi, unfortunately they are still nervous and have told me little.

[the guy who be short]

Just registering my presence and showing this:

Here is a list of votes in order. The three rows are "vote for," "vote by"
and "total votes."

Valier - Formen (Valier - 1)
Formen - Wayne (Valier - 1; Formen - 1)
Nilp - Nilp (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 1)
Wayne - Valier (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 1; Wayne - 1)
Nilp - Abercrombie (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 1)
Wayne - Cailin (Valier - 1; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2)
Valier - Morm (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2)
Abercrombie - SpM (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie
- 1)
Abercrombie - TGWBS (Valier - 2; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 2)
Valier - Garin (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie -
2)
Abercrombie - Spawn (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 3)
Abercrombie - Aiwendil (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2;
Abercrombie - 4)
Abercrombie - Kath (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie
- 5)
Garin - Shelob (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 2; Abercrombie -
5; Garin - 1)
Wayne - malkatoj (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie -
5; Garin - 1)
SpM - Glirdan (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 2; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie - 5;
Garin - 1; SpM - 1)
Nilp - Naria (Valier - 3; Formen - 1; Nilp - 3; Wayne - 3; Abercrombie - 5;
Garin - 1; SpM - 1)

Theories later, when I have time...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by mormegil

This is one point where I agree completely. It raised some red flags in my mind to do such an analysis yesterday and seem to suspect me and others but then simply follow Spawn and vote at a crucial time thus sealing the fate. Today she seemed worried about how I brought that up yesterday and immediately went to explain it. Seems a bit defensive to me.

It raised red flags in my mind, too.

Originally Posted by Kath

If you feel you must pursue this then feel free.

Then I shall take a moment to analyze Kath's behaviour, because it has made me rather uneasy.

#11 - Kath makes an appearance, but doesn't really say anything else than on Day 1, we randomly accuse people, but doesn't do it herself because it's too quiet for her.

#13 - Says that reasoned accusations aren't helpful yet, some suspicion towards the legal system and Saucy.

However, it's really Kath's post #76 that made me say "huh?".

"[Spawn] votes Crombie, seemingly in order to cause a double lynch!" ~Kath

Ha ha ha... uh, sorry. But seriously, I'd like to know how on earth could my vote have caused a double lynching when there was more than an hour till the end of the Day and there were 8 votes left.

"As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive." ~Kath

That's some nice framing up, but to me it seems that Kath's a bit too eager to accuse people with flimsy reasons and that she was trying to make an alibi for herself, perhaps knowing what the result in the voting would be. This doesn't necessarily make as much sense to the rest of you than it does to me because you can't be sure that I'm innocent (except the Seer, if they decide to dream of me), but shifting the responsibility of her vote on me instead of standing behind her own vote is really strange.

Really, if you're innocent, you can trust no other villager, so you should use your own brain instead of "accepting" anyone other's ideas. Also the use of the word "persuasive" here is interesting. I'm not trying to manipulate anyone to do anything, I'm gathering my thoughts and I do that aloud.


Well, that's it about Kath, and now something else.

- The voting. I can't tell much of it yet. If I'm going to comment it, I'll go back to reread everything more closely. Anyway, although I'm aware that the time zones have an effect on this, I'd believe that at least one of the wolves held back their vote a bit until they were sure that none of their comrades needed rescuing from the gallows. Also, I'd like to know if Kath was cross-posting her vote with Aiwendil because there's only three minutes between their posts.

- Márcolië Lamen. Glad to see that our missing villager has arrived.

- Silent people policy.

Originally Posted by Saucy

I think that it was spawn who suggested that we should have a policy on this. I agree. My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us. No one should be voting for anyone unless they have some kind of a valid reason for doing so, and that does not include acting in a way that makes you suspicious when that is the way they always act.

Sounds sensible, but this shouldn't make us hesitant to make a case against them either (I'm sure you didn't mean that, just mentioning). In a situation where no-one has any valid reason to accuse another villager, I prefer saving a contributing villager instead of someone who barely talks. As you said, anyone can be a Gifted, so we can't really go with that. However, now that we've scrambled through Day 1, we should have better chances to find good reasons to back up our theories.

[Cailín]

Kath has sought to explain her vote for Abercrombie today. I still find it strange, however, that she expressed suspicion of me, analysed a few other villagers, and then cast a vote for someone completely different on the basis of what others had said (and for the person who I, her suspect, had voted for).

Mildly suspicious indeed, but I think this attacking of Kath because of that might be a bit overreacting. She may just have been insecure, unwilling to add another name to the pot and figured the best kill yesterDay was Abercrombie. I don’t know, though. Something about her feels weird to me, too.

My own view is that we should not be voting for people just because they are behaving in the way that they always behave. And unless we really have nothing to go on, we should not be voting for people on the basis that they contribute little. The reason being that they are just as likely to be a Gifted as any of us.

Agreed. The problem with this policy, though, is that the silent ones are just as likely to be wolves and when worst comes to worst, it’s quite hard gathering evidence against them. Also, Gil and Wayne generally get away with things (i.e. non-voting, being unreasonable) that others would never get away with. But still, I mostly agree.

It is possibsle that it was a clumsy attempt to frame Valier, Formendacil and/or Wayne, given that he expressed interest in Glirdan's crazy triumvirate theory. But then, why not kill Glirdan or Kath (who also saw some attraction in the theory)? Why not indeed? Hmmm ...

A very clumsy attempt then, if that is indeed so. I know what you are trying to say and unwilling though I am to defend others whom I don’t know the identity of, it seems more likely that the wolves killed Aiwendil because he could not be associated with any of them than any other reason.

You seem very willing to cast suspicion on Glirdan, SpM. Are you sure you are not being vindictive? And anyway – if he is guilty – do you believe he would have gone after you, while we know you, as a man of the law, are probably able to make a case against anything that moves? On the other hand, I have missed your analyses!

--

Good to see Marcolie Lamen has finally arrived! At least we don’t have to worry about that anymore. So, let’s see what names were casually dropped in relation to wolvishness toDay:

Kath
Glirdan

Together because of their interest in Glirdy’s far-fetched and unlikely theory. Of the two, Kath strikes me as being the most likely to be a wolf, due to other accusations brought against her. However, I am convinced of neither. That Kath sealed Abercrombie’s fate is perhaps a sign of her guilt, but I hardly believe a wolf would seal the fate of a doomed innocent, when she could have safely voted for any of the others.

Malkatoj

Well, I’m not sure what moved Nilp to vote for her, really.

For now, I am really confused. I think this whole triangle thing should immediately be forgotten – it was a crazy theory yesterDay and remains so toDay. The people that have been mentioned so far are not the people whom I suspect right now. Sooner, some of the loudmouths are making me a bit uneasy at the moment… I fear we will eventually let them take control of the game (and why are Mormegil and Saucepan Man in agreement? That cannot be good, right?)

Anyway, I am willing to accept that there was no wolf in the Abercrombie-wagon. If there was one, I should think it either:

TGWBS
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

Because of the time and relative security of their votes. Also, assuming Wayne is innocent, a wolf might have voted for him. I think that would have happened later on, when he became a relatively safe vote, for at the time I voted it was still rather likely Wayne was up for lynching. So that would make:

Malkatoj

Most suspicious. Then providing Valier is innocent,

Garin

Looks bad. I accept Mormegil might have just voted for Valier to get things going, but Garin put Valier clearly in the lead again. Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

If Aiwendil was merely killed to make the wolves look good, we should look at Saucepan Man. Also, the death of innocent Aiwendil – contrary to what I stated earlier – makes anyone in the Abercrombie wagon appear less guilty on first sight, so we should definitely not forget who were in there.

That is all I can do for now.

[The Saucepan Man]

My analysis of Day 1 comments has proved helpful.
Even if only in a small way.

This post may seem strange to some.
Only one may understand it.
Or more – if they know a cross stick when they see one.

Not much analysis here, I am afraid.
I will be back later with something more constructive.
Let logic serve us in the meantime.
Perhaps this will be of some small use.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

… but this shouldn't make us hesitant to make a case against them either (I'm sure you didn't mean that, just mentioning). In a situation where no-one has any valid reason to accuse another villager, I prefer saving a contributing villager instead of someone who barely talks.

I don’t disagree with this. There is, I think, a case to be made out against Wayne for his strange vote yesterday. But we should all know by now that this is generally how Wayne behaves, whether innocent or guilty. That said, his first post of the Day was uncharacteristically long …

Originally Posted by Cailín

You seem very willing to cast suspicion on Glirdan, SpM. Are you sure you are not being vindictive?

I am conscious of people’s natural tendency to suspect those who accuse them, and the dangers of doing so. The same applies, as far as I am concerned, to Kath to a lesser degree. But that does not mean that I should not examine them where there is evidence to suggest that they may be Wolves. Glirdan’s vote for me carried no danger of getting me lynched at the time that it was cast and so may certainly be viewed as a possible “safe” Wolfish vote.

Kath and, to a lesser extent, Glirdan have both come under the spotlight today, primarily as a result of the suspicions that I have aired. There are, I think, good points made against both of them. But it is also fair to say that their behaviour may also have an entirely innocent explanation. I am not yet ready to vote for either of them on the basis of the evidence as it stands.

Which brings me to another point. We should be aware of the dangers of allowing those who are vocal and who commit themselves to certain positions to dominate our deliberations. From my studies, I have been able to ascertain that this has been the undoing of villages beset by Werewolves in the past. We should perhaps be more wary of those who do not commit themselves, who participate in our discussions without taking any definite position and who seem to say little to draw attention to themselves.

At the moment, I would place the following in this category:

Formendacil: One “jokey” post which tells us little about him and a random vote. But there were reasons given for this, so I will suspend judgment on him for the time being.

Malkatoj: Other than some Day 1 random accusation, has only really committed herself to accusing two “easy targets”: Wayne and Gil-Galad.

Naria: Nothing from her so far to enable us to get a handle on her.

Garin: Has taken some flak for his coin flip vote for Valier. But has given little away as to where his real suspicions may lie.

Valier: Voted on Day 1 with no real reasoning and has told us little of her own thoughts. I do wonder, however, whether a Wolf would have been so bold at this stage to challenge my suggestion that all votes and accusations should be reasoned.

Márcolië Lamen: Very quiet so far and did not vote yesterday. But she has explained her reasons so I will suspend judgment on her for now also.

Shelob: Uncharacteristically, she has offered little insightful analysis to date. Her only real suspicion has been directed towards Garin, and that was vaguely expressed. Her vote too can be seen as a possible “safe” Wolfish vote (although there was still a theoretical possibility that Garin would be lynched).

I suppose it’s fair to say that Gil-Galad and Wayne have not revealed much so far in the way of their suspicions either. But it’s also fair to say that this is not unusual for them. Perhaps the same may be said of Valier and Naria too. And, as I have said, I am wary of suspecting anyone simply on the basis of their traditional pattern of behaviour, however suspicious it may look on the face of it.

I am more concerned over those from whom I would expect more, particularly Shelob. I am mistrustful of those who say a lot, but reveal little and she strikes me as being very much in this category at the moment.

In any event, I will be expecting more from all of these villagers today. And, before I get accused of telling the Wolves how to act, it is only by forcing them to participate more and, more importantly, to commit themselves by putting forward theories, that we will have any hope of spotting Wolfish patterns of behaviour.

[malkatoj]

Okay, I see my vote for Wayne has made me look suspicious. Why? On the first day, is it not best to lynch an unknown? Wayne always is an unknown, very difficult to read, and usually gets lynched eventually. Killing him early prevents us from getting distracted and killing him later on, when we have more evidence.

Cailin:

Something about Garin is making me nervous anyway – he seems uncharacteristically quiet and eager to hide behind theories proposed by others.

Though I agree here, I'm also inclined to think, like Wayne and Gil, it's just Garin being Garin--in the last game (the last one I played) he acted in this manner as well.

I think the people who voted for Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's SpM, TGWBS, Spawn, Aiwendil, and Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set Crombie's death in stone.

Since I doubt all three of those people are wolves, I'd like to point out Shelob's vote (if it hasn't been done already, I've looked over everything but might have missed it). Since she's the only one who voted Garin, it's not getting a lot of attention--we tend to pay more attention to the bandwagons, and I've no doubt she knows this. Her vote is pretty safe in that, as I said above, Garin is pretty much an unknown, and there was no chance of his being killed so it went under everyone's radar. I'm not completely convinced that she's a wolf, but it seems very possible (and, considering past games and the fact that she's alive, likely).

Since I've no idea whether I'll be on again today (silly school), I'll cast my vote now. If I do get a chance, I'll come back and look over everything, throw in whatever insight I have at the time, and probably apologize for voting earlier than necessary. Though it's unlikely.

++Aiwendil

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

What's happened toDay?

Kath: Defends herself against mormegil's suspicions.

Valier: l¨Laments Aiwendil despite how he treated a coconut tree, disagrees with Saucy's policy, says that sometimes it's just as good to vote without a reason than with one. However, agrees that players should give a reason for their vote.
(... ?)

Goes on about "validity".

"I thought in this game that everyone had picked fun occupations and it would be more laid back..I was wrong!" ~Valier

Yes, we take it quite seriously when our innocent friends get slaughtered. (Sorry for the OOC, but: Usually the occupations are just something that the mod uses in his narrations. We don't take this as seriously as it may seem, but the villagers want to get the wolves killed and vice versa, and it won't happen if we're only joking.)

Gil: Doesn't trust the law although doesn't want to offend Saucy.

Cailín: Kind of understands that Abercrombie got lynched, mildly attacks mormegil, lists the votes, says that Day 1's vote gatherers are usually innocent, but isn't sure about Valier. Mentiones Shelob and Glirdan, but doesn't find them suspicious now. Says we should definitely look at Naria. Thinks Aiwendil was killed because he seemed intelligent and didn't really accuse anyone. Didn't find Aiwendil's behaviour Seerish.

Also, she defends Kath, but says that something's not right with her, mostly agrees with Saucy's policy and wonders his suspicion of Glirdan, says the "Triangle thing" should be forgotten, is afraid the loudmouths, says that if there was a wolf voting Abercrombie, it's TGWBS or spawn. If Wayne's innocent, malkatoj's suspicious, and if Valier's innocent, Garin's suspicious. Accepts morm's vote for Valier, but feels uneasy about Garin anyway. Says Aiwendil's death might point to SpM, thinks we should still look at those who voted for Abercrombie.

Saucy: Wonders if Kath or especially TGWBS or spawn could be a wolf, but hasn't much reason to think they are, says that if Valier's a wolf, it makes Kath very suspicious. Based on "safe" or "throwaway" votes, suspects Shelob, Glirdan, Naria and Valier as possible wolves, but doubts the wolves would have acted like that. Says that we shouldn't lynch people who contribute little just because of that, answers TGWBS' question about the "trap" which Kath kind of fell for, but doesn't want to vote Kath just because of that although it might mean something in the future. Aiwendil's death might point to Kath or Glirdan.

Glirdan: Is increasingly suspicious of SpM, agrees with Cailín why Aiwendil was killed, says we're back at square one.

Shelob: Thinks Aiwendil was killed in order to lead us astray, disagrees with Saucy and debated with him about Glirdan and Kath.

Nilp: Thinks Cailín's analysis of Aiwendil's death is adequate, wonders how fast Abercrombie got the votes, but trusts most of the people who voted for her. Poses a question about the smaller bandwagons. Suspects malkatoj, Garin and Glirdan based on the voting, votes for malkatoj.

Márcolië: Thinks that basically we all are suspicious and thinks Aiwendil's death was supposed to make us suspect Formndacil, Wayne and Valier or to cast suspicion on Glirdan, doesn't find Glirdan guilty, though.

mormegil: Agrees with SpM, suspects Glirdan and Kath, wants to look closer at Valier and Cailín.

Garin: Says he can't tell much of Aiwendil's death, but the "throwaway voters" should be watched closely, is tempted to vote for Valier, talks about hiding behind characters.

TGWBS: Lists the votes.

spawn: Agrees with morm on Kath's behaviour and makes a case against her, can't tell much of the votes yet, would like to know was Kath cross-posting with Aiwendil, somewhat agrees with Saucy on the policy.


Somehow I'm now starting to feel more uneasy about Shelob and Cailín. I'll go looking back at their posts now and tell if I find something.

edit: Saucy and malkatoj's last posts aren't on my list.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, unless it is a very sophisticated double bluff, we can perhaps cross malkatoj off our suspect lists. Why would a Wolf vote for the very person she killed last night?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by malkatoj

++Aiwendil

Talk about a throwaway vote...

Seriously, that's interesting. I believe this is the first time someone believes that a dead proven innocent is a wolf.

[the guy who be short]

I only have five minutes once again. I see my list was a little pointless as SpM already listed them.

Aiwendil's death - no clue. I'll analyse it when I have time later (should be about 3 hours).

Abercrombie's death - I have thoughts, but they'll have to wait as I'm pressed for time. They mirror SpM's, mostly, but with less emphasis on my guilt.

A suggestion: Each potentially guilty person should have four villagers look into them and offer analyses.

[malkatoj]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Morning-coffee=BAD.

Anyway, I have no idea what just went on in my head and wow I feel like an idiot. Sorry for being an idiot, everyone, I got very confused.

Morning-coffee=bad.

++KATH

is what I meant to do.


(eep, sorry!)

[The Saucepan Man]

Malkatoj, did you really vote for Aiwendil without realising that he was already dead, or did you type his name mistakenly, meaning to vote for someone else? It's an important distinction.

Boy, it's quiet here today.

Hello?

Anyone else out there?

I hate to be the one doing the most of the talking. It will probably be the death of me ...

EDIT: Also, I am unsure on the legality of voting for someone who is already dead and then subsequently voting for someone else (living). Given the non-retractability rule, is it allowed? Just want to be clear whether malkatoj's (second) vote will count.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

... here are some thoughts of Shelob and Cailín. My suspicion was initially based on a gut feeling, but let's see if I found something reasonable to say, too.


Cailín

On Day 1, Cailín made many posts, but few of them contained anything constructive to say. She said that we should listen to Sauce, but the next thing she said was that she found him suspicious. She mentioned Shelob to be suspicious, too, but didn't go further on that subject.
She listed all the villagers and in a joking manner analyzed them. She thought that morm looked guilty because of his vote for Valier, but said that Valier might be a wolf. Hmm, I doubt a wolf would make a three-way tie if his comrade was involved. She also defended malkatoj, but why did she do that when she coudn't know if malkatoj is innocent or not unless Cailín is a wolf and wants to buy the trust of an innocent?

Later Cailín showed mild uneasiness towards Shelob again, but right after it, she disregarded her own suspicions. She also defended Kath while expressing a little suspicion of her. Is this a classic example of obligatory suspicion towards a fellow wolf?

On a lighter note, "My tail was just accidentally split in half." ~Cailín.

We have a confession, folks, she has a tail.


Shelob

Shelob preferred random accusations to evidence, but since Sauce wanted reasoned posts, she decided to sit back and stay out of the conversation. Also, her vote for Garin seemed at least to me like a safe choice.

"It won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie." ~Shelob about her vote.

Besides, both options are generally considered as suspicious, right...?

Shelob also defended Kath and Glirdan.


If Shelob is a wolf, it would seem that Valier is innocent because of Day 1's voting

Also, both Shelob and Cailín seemed to know very well why Aiwendil was killed. I admit that most of us could have reached a same kind of a conclusion, but think about it, what would be more juicier a situation than openly tell all your fellow villagers what was the motive for last night's kill. Besides, a sound deduction could make them appear trustworthy, and by defending Formendacil, Wayne and Valier they could have tried to lead us astray (just like Shelob said the motive could have been), because at first it would be silly to think that the wolves didn't try to blame anyone after a kill but actually defend.

I guess that out of all the villagers, I'm the most suspicious of Cailín, Shelob and Kath now, and they seem to form a clear trio, but I don't think that all of them are wolves. Why, it may very well be that none of them is. However, I think that I'm going to vote one of them toDay if nothing surprising happens before it.

[Cailín]

Wow. Malkatoj's vote is very interesting. Either she is definitely innocent or this is about the boldest move I ever saw a wolf make.

It's indeed quiet and I'm waiting for more people to speak up... Thanks for the overview, Spawn, even though I'm not too happy about your conclusions.

I hate to be the one doing the most of the talking. It will probably be the death of me ...

I second this.

Anyway - I had hoped to hear something more from TGWBS... and Shelob... in the terms of constructive theories. Also, Mormegil has been rather silent so far, though that might be timezone related. I wish I could say more, but I could only list bad feelings right now, and they are not too helpful.

--

To answer to your further accusations, Spawn, I defended Malkatoj only because she seemed in a similar position and Mormegil mentioned us both. The rest can all be described to plain insecurity and just general not-knowing. I have not yet reached any solid conclusions and therefore still regard everyone as suspicious, even though I may wish them innocent.

--

I agree with you concerning Shelob. It seems in itself suspicious that she wasn't killed last Night. However, I share her concern about Garin. And thus I keep walking in circles. Which is as much annoying me as it is you.

[Valier]

I thought I would post quickly then look through all the posts again then vote(*RL* School) Well the most suspisious thing to me right now is Garin's attitude
In all other games he is very vocal and accusing. He is always in the top three posters. This game though he is providing little and keeping his mouth shut ...does this seem weird to anyone else?

[Cailín]

Okay – I’ll share something rather embarassing with you all. I make schedules. Obsessively. So I also have schedules for all WW games I have ever participated in. Right now, I’m looking at the one for this game… And here follow some immediate thoughts:

For now I have the following people marked as innocent:

Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
The Saucepan Man
Malkatoj
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Marcolie Lamen
WaynetheGoblin

Most of these are based on gut feeling and I may be way off. I just thought that Nilpaurion has a rather easy time this game. He gathered no votes other than his own yesterDay and is still not suspected. Really, I suppose the safest Day 1 vote is to vote for yourself and Nilp would be just as suicidal as a wolf: he couldn’t afford to change strategies. Besides, it’s perfect. No one is even mentioning him right now.
I added Malkatoj to the list after her vote for Aiwendil. That was just too weird. The others are just feelings.

Then there are a few silent people… I don’t know about them. They are no good to lynch toDay, I suppose, with the possible exception of Valier, just because their death would tell us naught:

Naria
Valier
Formendacil

Then there are people whom I am genuinely concerned about. Mostly because you can never trust them:

Kath
Shelob
TGWBS
Garin

And I have a separate category for two of the loudest players who have pretty much avoided to mention each other, which is just strange:

Dancing Spawn
Mormegil

The first worries me in particular, though I might be prejudiced because I am on her radar. She provides excellent analyses, and yet easily skips over a few parts that would not work for her theory. This mask of perfect reason is definitely worrisome and uncharacteristic of a stumbling innocent – or maybe she is just that good.

My vote, however, will probably be for one of the people in the pre-final category. I shall analyse all their posts before coming to a conclusion.

By the way, Valier, I do agree with you but since Garin has not been too succesful in the previous games, he might have just considered a change of strategy?

[Valier]

By the way, Valier, I do agree with you but since Garin has not been too succesful in the previous games, he might have just considered a change of strategy?

Sounds possible...But What if that's what he wants us to think that he's quiet this game because he always gets killed. I am more inclined to think he's a wolf because I believe his mouth would run ramped no matter what. Killing me is an easy target, I am innocent I assure you!