WW LLXVIII: Yar Har Har and a Bottle o' Rum

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Jumpin' eh?
When I was jus' gettin annoyed that none o' ye were wakin' up yet, usin' Blind Guardian as an example? It makes sense that fishmen be sleepin' in th' day if they be killin' in th'night. An' Blindbeard was awake in th' early mornin', which i' jus' more suspicious. seems li'e ye jus' wanna be suspicious o' somethin' an' ye picked me.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So you expect me to find it natural to speak about pirate topics and in the right dialect?

These two posts seem overly defensive to me...yet it doesn't scream Fishman.

Shasta has been unusually quiet (although I am one to talk) and there's been no word from Boro.

Wilwa always seems a little suspicious to me, so for that reason I'm not going to vote her toDay because my suspicions are usually wrong.

Zil, Mac and Rikae are the only ones that have been making any sense toDay and have been putting in their own, well thought out insights.

Morsul's vote jumps out at me though. He comes on for the one post and votes "randomly" yet gives an explanation to his random vote? Yet, I have seen him do this in the past so I may give him the benefit of the doubt.

Gah!! This is difficult!

[Nerwen]

Me hearties, I reckoned I'd had to go belowdecks afore this, but now it seems I ha' a mite more time.

So, a little more explanation fer me votin' of Eonwe: the lad be main jumpy when poked at, an' be puttin' me in mind o' the thrashing o' a fish out o' water.

'Tis a fair weak suspicion, to be sure, but 'tis early days.

An' then, I be not entire easy wi' yon Morsul-voters, even if the dog did vote me. It be puttin' me in mind o' a rescue party, that it be.

EDIT:X'd with a host; pirate grammar.

[Paranoia]

Twenty seven minutes.

Tick tock tick tock.

[Glirdan]

Oh thank Eru I have more time than I thought!!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I've done a little thinking on the rule of three thing. With twelve sailors, the odds of one of the first three to speak up being a fishman is one in four.

Nay, 'tis more'n't' than that, lad. Them fish be main excited at break o' day.

[Eönwë]

Just woke up early to see I'm in joint first place with the vote count. Wow. Apparently replying to accusations is evil (according to Wilwa); as is jokingly suggesting that someone is a fishman (or woman, in this case) because they're asleep at the wrong times (autume and others).

edit: fixed link. no x-post, which is scary because it means a lot will happen in these last minutes.

[Glirdan]

So, quick list

Innocent
Glirdy

Leaning towards innocent
Mac
Rikae
Zil

Unsure
Wilwa
Shasta
Nerwen
BG
Elf Warrior
Autum

Find Slightly Suspicous
Morsul
Eonwe

Between the two that I find Slightly suspicious...

I'm going to go with my gut this time and vote for

++Eonwe

Between him and Morsul, my gut is telling me to vote for him. He's been overly defensive about some of the smallest things and just seems the fishier out of the two. I've seen Morsul pull this one post and vote thing before and it usually turns out that he's innocent.

[The Elf-warrior]

Well, I don't think Morsul is suspicious, but I think Eönwë is somewhat suspicious. The thing about fish bein' still awake after a night of killing seems to me to be an unjustified application of the game mechanics to real life.

++Eönwë

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Well, I don't think Morsul is suspicious, but I think Eönwë is somewhat suspicious. The thing about fish bein' still awake after a night of killing seems to me to be an unjustified application of the game mechanics to real life.

And how is that? If someone kills at night, they'll be tired in the morning.

[Eönwë]

Well, being the one with the most votes is worrying, but I don't think everyone's looking carefully enough.

Blind Guardian has the most posts on this thread and yet hasn't really said anything of substance, sticking to pointless lists (with the Mod being guilty) and endless vote counts). Which all seems a bit too like she's just wanting to please. While before my suspicion was jokin, as I said, I'm not so sure now.

Zil, though his logic looks sound, looks like he's particularly trying to get me killed as well.

Wacth out for them.

[Eönwë]

Also, Nerwen's probably innocent, even though she voted me.

edit: *dies*

[Paranoia]

And that's deadline. Gifted, Fishmen, and Cultist, start sending in your night choices. Narration'll be up soon; Eönwë was an ordo.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Blind Guardian has the most posts on this thread and yet hasn't really said anything of substance, sticking to pointless lists (with the Mod being guilty) and endless vote counts). Which all seems a bit too like she's just wanting to please. While before my suspicion was jokin, as I said, I'm not so sure now.

Wacth out for them.

Really? I have the most count? I'm just an overposter. See my last two games. I know both times it got me killed but I can't help it! Besides, the songs got annoying to some so I stopped. On the vote counts...I got nothing. You're right way to much. I'll try to stop.

Edit: whoops. Okay that was an accident. I won't do it again!

[Paranoia]

----Daybreak----

Sitting back in his cabin, cap'n Paranoia sits back and ponders the events of yesterday.

Eönwë had the been booted off the ship to put it nicely. To put it not so nicely, Eönwë had everyone's swords drawn on him as he explained himself. One second Nerwen shouts for him to walk the plank... the next second Blind Guardian speaks up.


"But mateys what if he's a fishman? Don't those spawn o' the kraken swim in the briny the same way a rock sinks?"

Everyone looks around and Eönwë nods in agreement, obviously trying to use anything to talk his agressors down.

"Arr, lass. T'wont accomplish anything but keelhaul a loyal member of the cap'ns crew!"

They all have a good laugh at this before Autume wheels up a cannon. "Well, methinks I has a way around all this I do!" What then transpires is an event best left to the imagination. If by Left you mean cannonball, and by imagination you mean gut. Shasta gently pokes at the rather bloody corpse floating in the water trying to elicit a change from it. It obstinately refuses to change into one of the fishmen.

Eönwë - Ordo, canonballed day one.

Come the night, not a whole lot got accomplished.

Autume found herself in the brig for usin' one o' the cap'ns favored antique cannons. After bein' fired that morning, it had crumbled to dust, sending several thousand doubloons worth of antiquity and upkeep down the chamber pot.

This suited Autume just fine. All the better a place to practice her strange little religion in private.

It also made for a fine place for the fishmen to ambush someone privately.

Meditating fastly, so lost in thought Autume didn't even respond to their presence until one of the fishmen's nails pierced her throat.

The last words she gurgled out before bleeding out on the brig floor was "Hail friends."

The fishman stand around the Cultist's corpse, observing a moment of mourning until Daybreak for the loyal minion that they had accidentally felled by their own hands.

Autume - The Cultist - Neck pierced fatally night one.

The Living
Paranoia (NPC)
Zul
Nerwen
Blind Guardian
Rikae
Macalaure
Gilrdan
Wilwarin
Boromir
The Elf-warrior
Morsul the Dark
Shasta


Those sent to Davy Jone's Locker.
Eönwë - Ordo - Death via Cannonball Day One
autume98 - Cultist - Throat punctured through Night One

[The Elf-warrior]

Well, that was interesting. Seems like aligning oneself with foul creatures is not a good way to stay alive. I'm sorry about sealing Eönwë's fate. Here is my analysis (more of a summary, actually) of Inziladun. Why him? I haven't got a good read on him yet and he was the first on Paranoia's list of players.

Zul: Post #13 IC talk. Says keep an eye on everyone. Post #21 Zul quotes Rikae quoting Nerwen saying that Blind Guardian is suspicious. He also quotes Eönwë as saying that he's suspicious of Blind Guardian. He summarizes who suspects who. I think he is a bit inaccurate.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Nay, lass, I were a'suspicionin' o' the pair on 'em.

Post #36 Finds Eönwë's reaction to Nerwen's suspicion more suspicious than her suspicion. Responds to Shasta and Macalaure remarks with jokes. Post #45 Zul responds to various personages. He wants to wait on any vote for Mac. Is a tad suspicious of Wilwa for appreciating Mac talking normal. Post #46 Responds to Eönwë. He says that Eönwë's charge against BG is weak and that Glirdan had also come to his notice, but he also notes that Glirdan said that Eönwë might just be addled. Post #60 Says Eönwë seems to be overreacting to Glirdan's statement. Questions Morsul's vote. Post #61 Votes for Eönwë as the more suspicious one.

After this review, I sense a slight odor of fish. Maybe it's just the effect of zeroing in on one person. I need to go to bed, but I'll be back.

[Morsul the Dark]

Hmm... I don't like Nerwen Defendin' me, She knows I'm prone to vote somewhere else when she fills my sails with flattery! My piratey talk stinks

Also The Eonwe Wagon seemed wrong. I understand the one for me. But Eonwe from rereading wasn't that suspicious.

So when I have time I'll really look into her voters! for now, Off to Boston!...

Oh An' Captain I'd be much Obliged if you put up a Living Dead List Thank Ye.

[wilwarin538]

Okee. So yesterday sucked, though Day 1 bandwagons usually do.

Shall we look at votes? Yes we shall.

Eonwe -> Glidran
Morsul -> Nerwen
Rikae -> Morsul
Wilwa -> Eonwe
Inzil -> Eonwe(2)
Nerwen->Eönwë(3)
Mac->Eönwë(4)
Shasta -> Morsul(2)
Autume -> Morsul(3)
BeiGei->Morsul (4)
Glirdan -> Eonwe (5)
Elf-Warrior -> Eonwe (6)

If Morsul is guilty, then Glirdan likely is too, since he was the one who saved him there. So basically everyone who voted after me voted for someone who had votes already, Inzil doesn't look bad for it, Nerwen kind of. Mac kind of does though (in my opinion more then 3 votes for the same person in a row is a bad sign). Shasta looks really good, he split up the votes, which is nice, and if Morsul is guilty Shasta probably isn't. BeiGei's vote is interesting, since it made the tie, she's likely innocent if Morsul is guilty. Elf-Warrior's vote is kind of bad too.

Basically I don't like the way that looks. Everyone was copying each other's vote, and it just doesn't look nice. Right now, based on votes alone, Mac's, Glirdan's and Elf-Warrior's votes look the worse.

Well, now I have to go. It's my mom's birthday and the family is going out for breakfast. We have a lot planned today, but I'll try my hardest to get on as much as possible.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Zul: Post #13 IC talk. Says keep an eye on everyone. Post #21 Zul quotes Rikae quoting Nerwen saying that Blind Guardian is suspicious. He also quotes Eönwë as saying that he's suspicious of Blind Guardian. He summarizes who suspects who. I think he is a bit inaccurate.

Inaccurate, eh? Here's what those three said:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Aye, I reckon I'll be keepin' a weather eye on ye an' young Blind Guardian.

Originally Posted by Rikae

'tis odd that Nerwen should be castin' suspicion on th' Guardian o' th' Blind, when it's this Eonwe fellow seems th' most false and tricksy o' the lot. It looks like 'e talks just so as he can say he did.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

That Blind Guardian a bi' suspicious if ye ask me. 'e sleeps when 'e should be awakin'. Maybe 'e be tired from a night o' killin'. An' th' same goes fer t'others that're still asleep as well. They should all be wakin' by now.

Obviously Eönwë was innocent, but at the time all that did look odd.

And as you noted, you voted for Eönwë yourself.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Well, I don't think Morsul is suspicious, but I think Eönwë is somewhat suspicious. The thing about fish bein' still awake after a night of killing seems to me to be an unjustified application of the game mechanics to real life.

++Eönwë

Despite the fact that you'd made a pointed accusation against someone else shortly before you voted.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I think the rule of three thing is no good. The odds of the first three being wolves is the same as any other group of three sailors. Personally, I find it suspicious a seasoned sea salt such as Nerwen would give that old fish tale any credibility. However, I have a bad feeling about Rikae's post #15. That smilied first sentence raises my internal warning bell. Yes, it could just be an innocent joke. But that isn't what my gut says. Gonna to review the thread afore I vote, but Rikae, I accuse you.

You changed your mind about Nerwen in your next post, but you seem to have totally forgotten about 'accusing' Rikae. And I, not Rikae, was your initial focus toDay.

[Boromir88]

Yar, har har, I be alive. I be thinkin' there was a bit more than jus' rum in thar drink, sumone must 'ave slipped somethin' sinister t' catch me off my wits! Which one of ye dogs did it! (And mind ye do it again for me?)

[Rikae]

EW, that smilied bit was actually kind of an inside joke from RL WW at our recent moot - Boro and Wilwa were there, they'll know what I mean.

I won't be around much for a while - I will be watching sports (that's right - I realize this is suspiciously out of character ) but when I return, I'd like to give the votes yesterDay a close look. Right now Inzil's defensiveness is making me uneasy, but at the same time. I'm not sure why so many people ended up voting for Morsul, since my vote was pretty clearly a throwaway - and indeed, one of those people was a cobbler. Shasta's "my only other option is Morsul" seems kind of out of place - I don't see why it should have been. Well, I'll be back in a few hours...

[Rikae]

I got distracted - the above should read "is making me uneasy, but at the same time, I'm aware that Inzil always makes me a bit uneasy."

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

If Morsul is guilty, then Glirdan likely is too, since he was the one who saved him there. So basically everyone who voted after me voted for someone who had votes already, Inzil doesn't look bad for it, Nerwen kind of. Mac kind of does though (in my opinion more then 3 votes for the same person in a row is a bad sign). Shasta looks really good, he split up the votes, which is nice, and if Morsul is guilty Shasta probably isn't. BeiGei's vote is interesting, since it made the tie, she's likely innocent if Morsul is guilty. Elf-Warrior's vote is kind of bad too.

And just because you're the first one who voted Eonwe makes you look completely innocent?? I would beg to differ. If anything, all of us who voted for him should be under some suspicion today and I will not deny that those of us who voted later probably look more suspicious.

As for my vote, I had voted between the two people I thought the more likely to be guilty. As I've said, I've seen Morsul do this in more then one game and it usually turns out that he's innocent. However, I am still suspicious of him due to his vote for Nerwen. It just seemed completely out of place and the so called "random" vote with an explanation? Hmm....

But for me, who is really jumping out at me is Elf-Warrior. When I had voted yetserDay, I was under the impression that only Boro and I were the only two who had not voted at that point, thus making me think I had two options: 1) Break the tie or 2) Throw away my vote. I wasn't going to throw away my vote seeing I actually had some suspicions yesterDay. Then, eight minutes after I had voted and two minutes before deadline, EW pops up, votes Eonwe and completely sealed his fate. This smells very fishy to me..

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

And just because you're the first one who voted Eonwe makes you look completely innocent?? I would beg to differ. If anything, all of us who voted for him should be under some suspicion today and I will not deny that those of us who voted later probably look more suspicious.

Uhm, I actually didn't say anything about my vote looking bad or not. I don't really make a habit of anylysing my own votes. So I don't know what you're saying, cause I never said my vote made me look innocent. (though, it doesn't really make me look bad, in comparison to later voters)

[Rikae]

Day one voting:

Eonwe -> Glirdan

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So far, e's jus' been latchin' on t' what's been said, an' twistin' it in 'is own way.

Known innocent, fair enough.

Wilwa -> Eonwe

Originally Posted by Wilwa

He seems really defensive over fairly small comments. For example:

Reasonable sounding and I agreed with her at the time - could just as easily be fishy or ordinary, doesn't tell much.

Morsul -> Nerwen

Originally Posted by Morsul

Based on She's posted the most and With her Piratey talk confused me...

I don't approve of this, as I mentioned before, but that's because I don't really consider it good form, not because it's necessarily suspicious. It's actually pretty Morsul-ish and, again, doesn't tell us much.

Rikae -> Morsul

Originally Posted by Rikae

Because if you're going to make a random vote, make a random vote, but explaining your vote in a way that seems to apply to another person (it seems as though he thinks he's voting for Blind Guardian)? Such laziness deserves a reprimand.

Basically a throwaway vote/making a point, due to misgivings about voting Eonwe or Glirdy.

Inzil->Eonwe

Originally Posted by Inzil

Eönwë's edginess gives him the worst cast. I also recall the way he kept saying things to the effect of "How do we get the Fishmen?" "Let's talk about how to get the Fishmen." I tend to see that as a sign of evil intent.

Again looks like a fairly solid argument based on the little we had to go on. The placement is maybe somewhat worrying, since it's the second vote for Eonwe; certainly more worrying if Glirdan, Nerwen or Morsul is evil. If not, then it would tend to make Inzil look more innocentish in my eyes, since I doubt Fishzil would want to be responsible for getting the Eonwe-wagon rolling.

Shasta -> Morsul

Originally Posted by Shasta

I think Eonwe's getting a little too much suspicion at the moment. Could be wolf-on-wolf done too well, or there could be wolvery behind it. I don't think I'll be voting him. Nerwen and Glirdan seem okay to me, so really, my only other option is -

++Morsul

On second thought, this doesn't look terribly bad, although in Shasta's position here I wouldn't necessarily limit my options to those who already had votes. I am interested in knowing why he finds Glirdan and Nerwen innocentish, though.

Autume -> Morsul

Originally Posted by Autume

I really don't feel like putting in another vote for Eonwe and making that a bandwagon. Unless you call two votes a bandwagon in which case I don't feel comfortable jumping on that bandwagon.

I'm really not comfortable with what Morsul did, and I have no problem voting for him. Since I need to put my vote in:

Known cobbler - seems to have thought Eonwe was evil.

Blind Guardian -> Morsul

Originally Posted by BG

I have a bad feeling about this but...
++Morsul

For the above stated reasons. Tired...

However, I couldn't find the "above stated reasons". BG's last post was:

Originally Posted by BG

1Am forum time?!?! That's 11 here! Woo...this is weird. I should start looking for someone to vote for -_-

-which has a really bad ring to it, but I'll try not to be biased by that, since I would generally expect a wolf to be careful not to say such bad-sounding things. I can only assume BG means the reasons stated above by other people... care to explain, Guardian?

Nerwen -Eonwe

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Morsul's vote be scuvy, 'tis for sure, but

++Eonwe

be actin' more like as he have summat to hide.

'Tis the best I can do, shipmates.

I orignially found the last remark cobblerish, but that's not possible. Certainly an evil Morsul would reflect very badly on Nerwen here - perhaps too badly, as I don't think an evil Nerwen would save a comrade so obviously. "Something to hide" could, of course, always be giftedness, so it's possible Nerwen chose what she thought was a gifted for lynching.

Mac -> Eonwe

Originally Posted by Mac

The reasons given for Morsul-votes deserve some examination toMorrow. There's something mighty fishy going on.

Apparently he votes Eonwe because he feels the Morsul-voters are a rescue party? Although this is a decent enough reason, it would also have been an excellent place for a wolf to hide, playing off what he may have recognized as cobblery somewhere in the Morsul-voting group. I'll be interested in reading his analysis.

Glirdan -> Eonwe

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Between him and Morsul, my gut is telling me to vote for him. He's been overly defensive about some of the smallest things and just seems the fishier out of the two. I've seen Morsul pull this one post and vote thing before and it usually turns out that he's innocent.

Nothing much to say -Eonwe is already in the lead at this point, and Glirdan's points, though reasonable, have already been said by others. A very safe vote, I'd say.

Elf-Warrior -> Eonwe

Originally Posted by EW

Well, I don't think Morsul is suspicious, but I think Eönwë is somewhat suspicious. The thing about fish bein' still awake after a night of killing seems to me to be an unjustified application of the game mechanics to real life.

Same as with Glirdan, although even more pointless. EW seems to be missing the point on the "rule of three" thing, at least as I understand it: I always thought the idea was that wolves were anxious to post and influence the day's analysis/show how helpful they are early in the Day. This talk of unfair meta-reasoning reads a bit fishy, too. I wouldn't necessarily expect an ordo to read Eonwe and Nerwen's talk of excited baddies in this way, somehow.

Seems as though we either have an evil Morsul, a misguided cobbler, and a couple of wolves among the Eonwe-voters (Mac? Glirdan? EW?) or an evil Shasta or BG (but I highly doubt both) and an innocent Morsul, in which case Mac's analysis will be especially interesting. Morsul's role would be enlightening, but then again, there's some very weakly reasoned voting in the later Eonwe-wagon that has me worried.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

EW, that smilied bit was actually kind of an inside joke from RL WW at our recent moot - Boro and Wilwa were there, they'll know what I mean.

Hehehe, the search for the disappeared 3rd packmate and Agan getting trapped by saying "I'm as much of a wolf as you are?"

Alright, so what have I gleaned so far.

1. autume death. Funny how it's the wolf-fishies ally again. Totally not me this time, I don't even think anyone (even me) could get that unlucky, to whack of their own cobbler night 1, 3 straight times.

However, one post I do find rather interesting is #53 she rather strongly defends Glirdan.

In response to Rikae:

I'm just as confused by this. I didn't really see an explanation for why suspicion was cast onto Glirdan.

And slightly suspicious of wilwa for saying something against Glirdan:

Wilwa - mentions finds Glirdan slightly suspicious.

The other 'slightly suspicious' person autume has is Eonwe. Defends a single person, keeps suspicion list quite small, I could see evil fishes thinking tum was the seer.

However, being the cultist, her posts should be read trying to signal the fishes to her role. Then again why would fish-Glirdan want to kill someone who was defending him? In these games he usually needs all the help he can get...with how lustful the rest of us are to see him hang.

2. I don't like Zil. Period. His reasons against Eonwe were wishy hog-wash. Eonwe was edgy, so that makes him evil? Huh? I thought it was standard for wolves to have much sweeter tone in their voices?

3. I think Mac mentioned the accumulation of Morsul votes to prevent the Eonwe bandwagoning, should be checked. Agree 100%.

Last game I partook in, I learned quite a bit of valuable info. Day 1, packmate Lottie was getting some suspicions, I casted a quick 2nd vote and bluntly said I was band-wagoning to start a "save Lottie from the bandwagon!" movement. It worked, and we giggled.

Although in this scenario, there is a bandwagon of uneasiness about the Eonwe votes, so lets bandwagon against this guy! It can look quite good for a wolf to be such a stout defender of an unjust bandwagoning. And, there was quite a bit of echoing sentiments to not bandwagon against Eonwe.

With that being said, I also know how easy it is to manipulate emotions on Day 1. And thus how easy it is to lead innocents to be like..."AHH bad bandwagon against Eonwe! Umm let me vote this creepy vote!" Then all of a sudden there's a bandwagon against that person. Long story short, I see the votes you're talking about Mac. But I'm also watching you and Wilwa. Capiche?

Summary. Feel the most comfortable with Glirdan. Limbo of trust and wariness with Mac and Wilwa. Slightly more suspicious of the, don't bandwagon Eonwe, vote Morsul entourage. Don't like Zil.

Edit: crossed with Rikae. This post legit took a while as I was suddenly bombarded by an apartment of people who thought it was a travesty that I haven't seen Mulan yet.

[Blind Guardian]

Lol the others above stated reasons not mine.

Edit: xed with boro

[The Elf-warrior]

Inzil, the error I thought I spotted was that Nerwen was suspicious of Blind Guardian and Eönwë. Yeah, that's probably a mountain out of a molehill. I'm not even sure now I can call what you said a full fledged error.

Originally Posted by Inzy

You changed your mind about Nerwen in your next post, but you seem to have totally forgotten about 'accusing' Rikae. And I, not Rikae, was your initial focus toDay.

I can see your point. After all, it was Rikae who initially seemed to think that Nerwen was only accusing Blind Guardian. However, speaking of mountains out of molehills, the line that made me suspicious of Rikae turns out to an injoke from RL werewolf.

Glirdan, my vote for Eönwë is suspicious. It's very exculpatory of me to say that now. Here's why I voted for Eönwë:I noticed that my two possible suspects, Nerwen and Rikae, had a grand total of one and zero votes while Morsul and Eönwë had a number of votes on them. Why do I list Nerwen too even though I backed down from suspecting her? It's the thought process that went through my head.

So I thought I'd make my vote count (and ward off accusations of making a throwaway vote), and I thought Eönwë was more suspicious of the two top vote getters. The arguments against him seemed sensible to me although I personally hadn't gotten a bad feeling about him like I did with Rikae. Also, Morsul's vote seemed in character for him to me, thus rendering it a flimsy ground for suspicion in my mind.

Rikae, in regards to misunderstanding the rule of three, I see your point. However, I was under the impression that it didn't work.

[Macalaure]

Some comments and then off to analysing votes.

I don't like Wilwa's vote analysis very much. All it considers is vote placement, which, with few people around until the deadline, is not in the voters' hands too much. With this little to back up the analysis, her conclusions seem too certain.

Inzil is quite defensive about EW's analysis, not giving any other input so far toDay.

Glirdan looks better toDay, although his jump on EW is a bit too quick, I think.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Apparently he votes Eonwe because he feels the Morsul-voters are a rescue party?

Not really. I had my own suspicions of Eonwe and agreed with other people's. I was still undecided, though, and the Morsul-waggon suddenly running away with somewhat sketchy votes kind of forced my hand. Eonwe was my best suspect and my only chance at doing something about the Morsul-votes.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

And just because you're the first one who voted Eonwe makes you look completely innocent?? I would beg to differ. If anything, all of us who voted for him should be under some suspicion today and I will not deny that those of us who voted later probably look more suspicious.

This reaction looks rather strange to me. Wilwa didn't say she was innocent, said nothing about her vote at all.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

But for me, who is really jumping out at me is Elf-Warrior. When I had voted yetserDay, I was under the impression that only Boro and I were the only two who had not voted at that point, thus making me think I had two options: 1) Break the tie or 2) Throw away my vote. I wasn't going to throw away my vote seeing I actually had some suspicions yesterDay. Then, eight minutes after I had voted and two minutes before deadline, EW pops up, votes Eonwe and completely sealed his fate. This smells very fishy to me..

This TEW suspicion makes me wary as well, since it seems to be just latching onto what I said of him earlier.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Uhm, I actually didn't say anything about my vote looking bad or not. I don't really make a habit of anylysing my own votes. So I don't know what you're saying, cause I never said my vote made me look innocent. (though, it doesn't really make me look bad, in comparison to later voters)

Your vote in itself being the first doesn't make you necessarily look more innocent than the later ones, since laying the groundwork for a bandwagon can be done by a wolf in relative safety. However I have no particular reason to suspect you at the moment, as you've been fairly sensible.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I can see your point. After all, it was Rikae who initially seemed to think that Nerwen was only accusing Blind Guardian. However, speaking of mountains out of molehills, the line that made me suspicious of Rikae turns out to an injoke from RL werewolf.

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

[Glirdan]

So I'm in a pickel as I have to vote in about an hour and half at the latest as I probably will not be around for DL tonight....yet there is nothing really to go off of at all at the point.

I'm still quite leary of Morsul, but he hasn't said much today for me to vote him. TEW has made a slightly reasonable argument in his defense for his vote...but I still believe he warrants watching.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nothing much to say -Eonwe is already in the lead at this point, and Glirdan's points, though reasonable, have already been said by others. A very safe vote, I'd say.

Just to point out that at the time of my vote, Eonwe and Morsul were tied in votes.

[Macalaure]

Obviously, the guilt or innocence of votes depends crucially on Morsul's role.

Eonwe -> Glirdan. Let's just skip this one.

Wilwa -> Eonwe(1). It's interesting that she mentions Eonwe for the first time in her vote post, but backs it up with several quotes (and comparatively little comment, which is suspicious already on its own). This doesn't feel right. With quotes and everything, Wilwa makes her vote reasoning look too big to think it's just an early-Day1-"I don't know what else to do"-vote. It must have been on her mind already, but then, why didn't it make the way into her earlier posts?

Morsul -> Nerwen. You can't really say anything about this vote either way.

Rikae -> Morsul(1). A bit kneejerk, but more in line with the typical "I don't know what else to do" than Wilwa.

Inzil -> Eonwe(2). It should be noted that the majority of Inzil's points against Eonwe came before Morsul showed up. His vote is therefore logical and not an attempt to save him. Whether Inzil's case is sound is another thing. I don't think, however, that Inzil is the kind of fish who would make a long pursuit of a random innocent on Day1. The one thing that worries me is

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't guess I'll vote Morsul ToDay.

in his vote post. Even though Rikae's vote was right before his, it was just an arbitrary vote and it was not clear at that point that many others would follow (everybody else merely expressed annoyance, not intent to vote - an important reason why f.ex. Shasta voted Morsul was exactly because of the new Eonwe waggon). So, does Morsul have a special place in Inzil's mind?

Shasta -> Morsul(2). Shasta is trying to save Eonwe. Quite obviously, Morsul and Shasta are not fellow fishes. It might be that Fishasta is trying to make himself look good by distancing himself from a sketchy bandwaggon, but I don't think it's too likely.

Autume -> Morsul(3). The cobbler finds an easy victim in Morsul, possibly believing that Eonwe might indeed be evil.

BG -> Morsul(4).

Originally Posted by BG

I have a bad feeling about this but...
++Morsul

Very fishy. "I have a bad feeling" are the words of a fish knowing that the lynched one is innocent, so she can still get out of the resulting questions the next Day by saying "I thought so...". It is also, as far as I can see, the only actual point BG makes all of yesterDay.

Nerwen -> Eonwe(3). The suspicion is weak, as she admits, but if Morsul is evil, I doubt evil Nerwen would have voted to save him this obviously. If Morsul is innocent, she still could be a fish choosing between two innocents. It's hard to tell.

Mac -> Eonwe(4). I explained my reasons in my last post.

Glirdan -> Eonwe(5). The crucial vote that put Eonwe in the lead. I think the fact that Glirdan obviously made quite an effort to make up his mind well in little time makes him look ok, even if Morsul is evil. If Glirdan is evil, he certainly knows how to act.
Then again, he is an actor... hmm...

EW -> Eonwe(6). The Elf-warrior confuses me quite a bit thus far. As usual with late inconsequential bandwaggon votes, it's hard to tell. He waited til the last minutes, which is not necessarily suspicious, but he did avoid having to make the actual decision between Eonwe and Morsul.

Suspicious:
Blind Guardian

Somewhat suspicious:
Wilwa, EW

Not sure either way:
Morsul, Inzil, Nerwen, Glirdan, Boro

Somewhat innocent:
Rikae, Shasta

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Lol the others above stated reasons not mine.

Um, ok. Which ones?

Originally Posted by Inzil

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

Hm. I don't like this at all. If it looks odd (though it doesn't, really, to me), it's in a way no innocent should go pointing out for all to see.

[Blind Guardian]

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

Edit: xed with rikae

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't like Wilwa's vote analysis very much. All it considers is vote placement, which, with few people around until the deadline, is not in the voters' hands too much. With this little to back up the analysis, her conclusions seem too certain.

My conclusions were not 'certain', and I said they were completely based on the votes and nothing else. I certainly don't plan on basing any suspicions on my little vote analysis alone, it was just something to get the day started, since there wasn't much else exciting that happened yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa -> Eonwe(1). It's interesting that she mentions Eonwe for the first time in her vote post, but backs it up with several quotes (and comparatively little comment, which is suspicious already on its own). This doesn't feel right. With quotes and everything, Wilwa makes her vote reasoning look too big to think it's just an early-Day1-"I don't know what else to do"-vote. It must have been on her mind already, but then, why didn't it make the way into her earlier posts?

No, I was barely around yesterDay, most of his posts I think were even made while I was gone. There weren't too many posts to begin with so it was easy to catch the pattern.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by me

It just looks odd that you completely abandoned that suspicion of Rikae in favour of voting Eönwë, not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm. I don't like this at all. If it looks odd (though it doesn't, really, to me), it's in a way no innocent should go pointing out for all to see.

If I'm understanding your meaning, that doesn't make sense. Why shouldn't I point it out? I saw a major inconsistancy there. He said "I accuse you, Rikae", and then voted for Eönwë, saying nothing more about you yesterDay.

[Glirdan]

Oh I really hate doing this this early, especially since there has been barely any actual chatter toDay, but I have to vote like now seeing as I know I will not be back for DL....So, I'm going to go with the only other person I have any real suspicions on:

++Morsul

His supposed random vote yesterDay for Nerwen is really bugging me. Also, it is quite possible that he is using the fact that we all know he does this one post and vote thing in most games he's played in before and is using it as a cover.

Sorry guys, but I gotta go. Hope to be around more for Day 3.

[Rikae]

Inzil, I definitely had the impression you were talking about EW not mentioning me toDay.

Originally Posted by Inzil

not even mentioning it again, even though you posted early toDay before Rikae explained herself.

You pretty clearly say "toDay" there, and indeed, it makes more sense - I wouldn't have expected someone to mention previous suspects who had no chance of being lynched in a vote-post. In fact, you also mentioned EW's lack of suspicion toward me toDay earlier, although more in the context of defending yourself, wasn't it? It does look as if you're trying to draw attention to an overnight dropping of suspicion, which is not, in my book, an innocentish thing to do.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, but distracted. I'll post in a bit.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Why am I suspicious? Because I didn't know who to vote for? There where two people that were either going to get lynched, you have to vote for one of them. If I voted for say Nerwen I would have had to explain my vote, going on nothing. These where the two people to vote for: I didn't like everyone voting Eönwë, but there was very little on Morsul either. I figured voting Morsul was the best thing to do. I kinda figured he wasn't going to get lynched but I figured Eönwë wasn't hairy :P Though she might have been something else, Morsul I didn't know. It was kinda a wild vote.

Edit: xed with rikae

hmmm.... Odd here.... BG is very odd throughout the game but I think this post is a culmination of that...

Probably voting BG... will see if anything develops slow day...

[Blind Guardian]

I don't see anything wrong with that. Explain your self more.