Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Meneltarmacil]

Personally, I'm not for this whole "choose a leader" plan. It would

A: give a wolf more of a chance to influence us if we choose him/her as our leader
B: cause us to quickly lynch him/her if he/she turns out to be wrong. Good if the leader is a wolf, bad if the leader is just a misguided innocent, really bad if the leader is a gifted.

Basically, we're likely giving someone who really doesn't have much more knowledge than anyone else the power over the vote. The only way I think this would work is if that particular villager happens to be the Seer. In any case, however, making somebody the leader is probably the same as sticking an "EAT ME" sign on his/her back, or, if he/she survives the Night, a "LYNCH ME" one.

We have to work together if we're going to solve this. Putting all the power into one person's hands is probably not a good idea, unless that person is a total genius or the Seer.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Yes, very good plan there Lmp. Except for one thing, you are now not so innocent in my eyes.

Your knife of reasoning is double edged, good sir. Nevertheless, I'm glad to be suspected at least a little bit. Maybe I won't die so early in this process now, and someone will be available to properly care for the remains of the dead.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

So my suspicion list is as follows:

Lmp
Eonwe
Bergil

Lmp seems most guilty in my eyes and I will probably vote for him unless something new arises.

You, in turn, my seeming fellow innocent, have proven quite quick to pounce, which suggests to me that you are either guileless or extremely full of guile, the latter of which suggests lycanthrope. So you are hoist with your own pitard. That is, by declaring me so suspicious, you have raised suspicion upon yourself. Let my esteemed fellow villagers take note. I will, however, not be so hasty as to say that I'm going to vote for Glirdan. Much evidence has yet to be gleaned. I am, however, glad to have gotten already such a - how shall we say - ferocious response.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Personally, I'm not for this whole "choose a leader" plan.

A: give a wolf more of a chance to influence us if we choose him/her as our leader
B: cause us to quickly lynch him/her if he/she turns out to be wrong. Good if the leader is a wolf, bad if the leader is just a misguided innocent, really bad if the leader is a gifted.

... making somebody the leader is probably the same as sticking an "EAT ME" sign on his/her back, or, if he/she survives the Night, a "LYNCH ME" one.

We have to work together if we're going to solve this. Putting all the power into one person's hands is probably not a good idea, unless that person is a total genius or the Seer.

Quite right, good sir, and you make valid points. Still, would not two votes per Day not be helpful, since the things you say about the extra vote per Day are also true of the vote we'll already do, substituting "Leader" for "last person to vote for the now dead innocent"?

[Glirdan]

You, in turn, my seeming fellow innocent, have proven quite quick to pounce, which suggests to me that you are either guileless or extremely full of guile, the latter of which suggests lycanthrope. So you are hoist with your own pitard. That is, by declaring me so suspicious, you have raised suspicion upon yourself. Let my esteemed fellow villagers take note. I will, however, not be so hasty as to say that I'm going to vote for Glirdan. Much evidence has yet to be gleaned. I am, however, glad to have gotten already such a - how shall we say - ferocious response.

And I would not expect I response less than that my fellow villager. That plus what you said to Eonwe makes you less suspicious in my eyes. I think it would be quite stupid to lynch someone as smart as yourself. You're still suspicious, yet I don't think I'll be voting for you now.

I believe Bergil's rash vote for Wilwa was purely randomness so I highly doubt that I'll be voting for him, yet he is not yet cleared from suspicion.

All these acusations are completely random {form me(mostly) anyway} . I'm still quite unsure of who to vote for and I have to vote early because of other things and my vote will mostly be random, unless Eonwe doesn't defend himself against what I said.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot - a traveller hey? Convenient how the trouble starts as soon as he gets here

She.

I agree with those opposing LMP's plan. It just puts too much power into the hands of one person. Three things could happen: a) the person is a wolf - 1/5 chance. This just puts too much power in a wolf's hands and gives the wolves too much influence, plain and simple. b) the person is the seer - 1/15 chance. This would be bad - it would put way too much of a spotlight on the seer for better or for worse. c) someone else - 11/15 chance. This doesn't help either. This person would know no more than or less than all the other players, and will quite possibly end up being lynched or focused too heavily on due to some kind of mistake, distracting attention from the real wolves.

I just don't see a lot of upside to it. I think the best thing is for everyone to vote their own way. It might not have a lot of immediate benefit, but it should have longer term benefits when we can look back on a couple days' voting and make out some patterns.

I don't know that this necessarily makes LMP a wolf, though. He could just be trying to generate discussion. I'm reserving judgment for the moment.

Well, this particular traveller has been doing a good bit of travelling and is in dire need of some rest. Will be back in several hours to probably vote. I could try and hold it off to the last minute, but unless I am really undecided I probably won't toDay, simply because I want to see how the timing works out with the end of the Day and my own schedule.

[littlemanpoet]

Your quick retraction of suspicion against me, my dear undead sir, could be taken either way; but my instinct tells me that it's based on sound reasoning. We shall see if my plan and the discussion that ensues, ferrets out any more questionable or suspicious content. Let's hear it on the plan, people! Oh, and watch your step as you enter the viewing room. The first step can be tricky.

[Eonwe]

*frowns* well i didn't say i am all for teh plan. just analyzing the possiblities. the whole thing rests on the leader. i have to say, i remain quite sceptical. especially this early. see, suposing we elect an innocent. we all vote according to what he (ehem, generically, for those who care) tells us to do. if we catch a wolf, fine. if not, we killed a villager, are probable going to kill another (well, we would have to see how it played out), but the real thing is, we didn't do any good. the wolfs are still completely innvisible and we have no hints.

no supposing we ellect a wolf. that is a whole new can of worms, although not so differetn. if we kill a wolf fine. now it breaks down into suspicion. is our leader a wolf covering hmself. is our leader a lucky innocnet. can we trust him cuz he's right? should be mistrust him cuz he's right. if we kill an innocnet, not much really changes. is he an unlucky innocnet. did he choose an innocnet to protect a wolf?

all in all, i guess it has its merrits, but not until much later on. put yourself in the leaders place. we are asking him to be answerable for all the choises we would indiviually be making. right now, that would be a very, very hard task, very very likely he would get lynched for it.

so, my final thoughts on the plan are taht it could be used. but only later. and i think we should have a know innocent at the helm, at very least.

hopefully that will clarify my position and return me to your good graces glirdan.

ps. we have just wittenessed that great ambiguousness we call werewolf. to trust or not to trust. there are just so many ways to cut teh cake, if you take my meaning.

edit cross posted with firefoot and lmp

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I agree with those opposing LMP's plan. It just puts too much power into the hands of one person. Three things could happen: a) the person is a wolf - 1/5 chance. This just puts too much power in a wolf's hands and gives the wolves too much influence, plain and simple. b) the person is the seer - 1/15 chance. This would be bad - it would put way too much of a spotlight on the seer for better or for worse. c) someone else - 11/15 chance. This doesn't help either. This person would know no more than or less than all the other players, and will quite possibly end up being lynched or focused too heavily on due to some kind of mistake, distracting attention from the real wolves. ... I just don't see a lot of upside to it.

Sound reasoning, as I would expect from someone of high intelligence, milady of the esteemed traveling. Such a post lends credence to your innocence.

He could just be trying to generate discussion.

Quite right. Let's have some more. But for now I must go make a coffin and dig a grave. I shall return to the discussion when that task is complete.

[Glirdan]

She.

I'm sorry my dear Firefoot. Please forgive me.

Lmp, for your plan, I'd have to say that I'm against, yet also for it. I'm torn both ways. It would be really unwise to place one person in charge because, as he said, that would mean we could possibly be putting a Wolf in charge and he would have easy power of unfluencing us in our votes. Yes he might influence us in voting for a Wolf the first time and then innocents afterwards and we might all sit here and think "Oh it's just bad luck we're having here" and that would ensure I victory for the Wolves. Or he might make us vote for an innocent and imeadeatly make us suspicious of him. And if he doesn't get attacked at Night, we'd be able to guess that he/she's a Wolf.

We might put an Ordinary villager in charge and he/she might make us, accidentally of course, but unknown to us, an innocent villager and then we go and lynch him the next day and that would mean three innocents in a matter of two Days and 1 Night.

We might put a gifted in charge and if we do and then that gifted gets attacked at Night, we're in big trouble. Or if the gifted makes us accidentally lynch an innocent and we lynch him the next day, we're in big trouble again because there goes someone we really need to help us be rid of this curse.

I think our safest course of action would be to not select someone to be in charge. There's to much to risk.

[Kitanna]

I've been waiting until I had something to say that was beside agreeing or disagreeing with others. And now it seems it is time.

It seems Bergil has voted for Wilwa because her "post did not take 33 minutes to write". Now not to call Wilwa innocent or Bergil guilty, but I can imagnine her post taking 33 minutes to write. I've written rather short posts like that and it's taken me a long time for whatever reason (phone calls, sometimes I forget where I was going and have to reread everyone's posts, other such things) so that is why I don't doubt it took Wilwa so long. But I won't throw down anything on Bergil because of his early vote and, what seems like, the randomness of it. Not yet anyway. There are other things to look at first. But like many others I would like to hear again from Bergil on why.

lmp~ his idea for a leader is not such a bad one. But I think we should wait until DAY 2, or even DAY 3, when there is more for us to go off of in picking a leader. Of course like all plans though if we choose wrong then we are out of luck for that day.

A: give a wolf more of a chance to influence us if we choose him/her as our leader
B: cause us to quickly lynch him/her if he/she turns out to be wrong. Good if the leader is a wolf, bad if the leader is just a misguided innocent, really bad if the leader is a gifted.

Menel you make a good point, but most strategies we will have as a village will have downsides like this. I think it may be worth a shot on DAY 2 or 3. If it leads us down diasterous path then of course we should not try it again. There are dangers involved in bandwagoning, voting randomly, and lmp's leader plan.

Glirdan~ He has me quite confused to be honest. His first post was of course random. Then he goes after Eonwe, lmp, and Bergil. I understand his reasoning behind Bergil, but his Eonwe and lmp reasonings are where I am not sure what to think. He is changing his mind rather quickly with lmp. First he casts his eye on lmp and his plan. As well as Eonwe for supporting lmp's plan. But he does say lmp is the most suspicious in his eyes. Then in his next post he is quick to remove much of his suspicions from lmp and put them on Eonwe. Now I can take this two ways. 1) Glirdan is innocent and has truly changed his mind and sees Eonwe as more of a threat than lmp. 2) He is a wolf and he is changing his mind quickly because he wants to find an innocent to latch on too. Now I am quite inclined to believe number one, mainly because his quick change of opinion draws attention which is not what a wolf would want. But I will also take into account a clever wolf will use such a tactic because the village would not expect it. I will continue to watch him for now.

Not much else for me to say. I wish I had more helpful things to say.

[tar-ancalime]

It seems to me that to implement lmp's plan would simply be to codify what happens spontaneously whenever there is a bandwagon. One person (or sometimes two) starts the accusations, others agree, and before you know it the votes are in and we've followed a de facto leader.

Afterwards, what do we do? We analyze the actions of the original accuser to try to discern motives, inside knowledge, etc.; then we do the same for the followers and in some cases for the non-followers. I really don't see a difference between this process and what lmp is proposing, except for one: Under lmp's plan we'd be absolutely conscious of what we're doing at every step.

It just doesn't seem to matter that much whether we implement this plan or not. lmp, please correct me if I'm missing some important point (it wouldn't be the first time).

And Celuien, I am shocked at the report you give me of the peformance of those knives. Shocked. Did you leave them out in a dewy morning as I instructed? Did you bathe them in raw egg (an absolutely necessary step)?

Of course you did. You are the most careful of craftsmen. It's just that, with all the hundreds of knives I have sold, I've never had another bad report. Well, I am flummoxed. But to show my good faith and to try to make amends, I am willing to refund you a full ONE-FOURTH of the price you paid. I'm sure this will more than make up for any inconvenience.

[Glirdan]

I have to vote now and my vote shall be

++Eonwe

As I said, this vote is mostly random yet he still didn't quite defend himself against my accusation. I hope I'm wrong and that no one follows me in this vote, unless something else pops up about him.

Kitanna, I'm sorry if I confused you on my suspicions on Lmp and Eonwe.

Lmp is because of the fact that he proposed this plan. Could he be innocent and trying to help? Or could he be a Wolf masquerading as an innocent that's trying to help?

Eonwe is because he backed up Lmp's idea so this could be a misguided innocent OR a Wolf agreeing with a fellow Wolf's plan OR a Wolf agreeing with an innocent's plan which would almost insure a Wolves vistory.

Once again, this vote for Eonwe is mostly randomness because I have to vote so early. So don't take this vote to seriously.

[Kuruharan]

Um, it's hanged, not hung, by the way, my good man.

I will continue to use "hung" because it will drive nitpicking grammarians absolutely nuts. They could become so cross they might make a mistake.

That fatal flaw is none other than the wolf leader choosing to lynch a wolf, thus more or less clearing self of suspicion. Of course, 'tis not a fatal flaw if we all go in realizing that a wolf may just be forced by the plan to pick a fellow wolf for lynching; but the question is, would a wolf do such a thing so early in the game?

For this to work to best advantage, it should be done early in the game. While it can be done later, to gain the most steerage benefit it should be done early. Maybe not necessarily on DAY ONE but definitely by DAY TWO.

I agree with Meneltarmacil that choosing a leader would be a bad thing.

I also think there is a danger here for villagers in attempting to be too formulaic and rigid. Flexibility and adaptability are key here. That is why I am usually not too big on "plans." Best to keep an open mind.

I must note that littlemanpoet has been talking...a lot. This is not necessarily bad. In fact, it might be good. On the other hand, it might indicate he is unduly excited about...something.

I am glad to see that the votes are spread out so far. I hope that continues.

Let's just not have a double lynching toDAY.

[Anguirel]

Leader? By Orome, I sense an opportunity...are leaders paid better than fools hereabouts? Imagine living the grand life, with a pack of retainers, on horseback, chasing after deer and boar and all manner of things...

Why elect me? Ahem. Well, it's well known that the Gods watch over fools, so a jester is a perfect guide in times of trouble. You can trust him to kill you a wolf without a second thought!

What? The leader is more likely to be eaten?

Um, ah, forget what I said. Who'd be stupid enough put a jester in charge, anyway?

Seriously, no, really, having a leader just leads to the same mishandled results, but lays the responsibility at the feet of one villager. It really won't reveal much, and deciding who to elect will waste analysis time.

I was initially suspicious of Meneltarmacil due to his inane jesting (nothing like my standard) in his first speech, but his sensible debunking of the leadership plan redeems him for now. Kitanna has now convinced me that Glirdan is worth taking a stab at. But I'm aware that we really can't deduce much today. Three wolves among twelve sheep...

I say we just follow instinct and inclination, spread the vote, and hope and pray to Orome for a decent trail.

[Kath]

Just one question Kath, why did you decide to skip by fives? I have a little theory about your choice of that number. There are 15 villagers in this here town, and three wolves. 15 divided by 3 is 5, which is the number you chose.

Well duh! No offence meant really wilwa but yes obviously that's why I took every 5th number. 3 of our community are wolves so I picked 3 names in the most fair way I could think of at the time.

Now it seems that Bergil and Glirdan have voted. Bergil for wilwa and Glirdan for Eonwe. As soon as I have more than 5 seconds on here I'll take a closer look at that.

LMP's plan for electing a leader seems to have some support and some opposition. I would like to add myself to the opposition side at least for now. We can't have a leader until we have a known innocent, and as yet we don't.

Right, thats all for now. This writer has to go write!

[littlemanpoet]

*LMP returns from coffin making and grave digging*

Nothing like a good flawed plan to ferret out some sense of relative innocence or perhaps guilt.

For toDay I am going to presume innocent, on the merits of their solid posts in response to my flawed plan:

Glirdan

Eonwe
Meneltarmacil
Firefoot
Kuruharan
Anguirel

Whereas Kuru's debunking of my plan came later than others, I'm taking into account his earlier posts in placing him amongst my presumed innocents. And even though Anguirels' post regarding my plan comes quite late, that he calls Menel's post a "sensible debunking" lends credence to his innocence as well.

Those whom I consider (at least) mildly suspicious are:

Kitanna
Bergil
tar ancalime

Bergil on the strength of his early vote, his reasoning for which has holes; yes, it's probably a random vote, so that's why I'm only mildly suspicious.

Kitanna's and tar ancalime's debunking of my flawed plan came rather late, such that they may merely be mimicking the attitudes of others, though their replies seem independently thought out. Still, they seem to be fence-sitting, and that is about as wolvish a behavior as I have yet seen. Since their posts could be construed either way, I'm still only mildly suspicious.

Which leaves:

Celuien
Kath
Lalaith
Waynethegoblin
Wilwa

Of these people, only Kath has said anything that I would consider of substance, namely 'morming'. I trust such an approach, but am aware that a werewolf might use it early in order to seem innocent.

Wilwa seems more playful than anything at this early stage.

Celuien and Lalaith have so far been posting in character, which tells me very little. Wayne's post was a mere "I'm here" post, and I have nothing to say about him.

Therefore, I'm watching those five for more indications, and keeping my eye on the three above-named 'mildly suspicious' individuals. My vote shall be for one amongst these eight. That's still too many to choose from, but there's still time.

And now it is time to process to the graveyard. Will you others assist in placing the dearly departed in the coffin? Thank you. And now ..... lift! Good, step slowly. On we go...

Edit: crossposted at this ungodly hour with Kath.

[littlemanpoet]

Kath's slightly offensive "no offense Wilwa but" post seems a bit too careless for a werewolf; it could be that she's in a hurry to get to her nano writing thing, but I'm moving her to my presumed innocent list for toDay. So:

presumed innocent

Glirdan
Eonwe
Meneltarmacil
Firefoot
Kuruharan
Anguirel
Kath

mildly suspicious

Kitanna
Bergil
tar ancalime

still questioning

Celuien
Lalaith
Waynethegoblin
Wilwa

[Lalaith]

I second Kuru, Eonwe and Firefoot, I dislike first days too. I see some villagers are being unreasonable, others frivolous, still others relatively silent. But this behaviour is all par for the course when we have so little to go on.

I am grateful for Lmp's suggested plan, not because I agree with it - I don't - but because it has given us something concrete to discuss, other than the usual isn't-it-sad-about-spawn-werewolves-how-awful. So for that reason I am inclined to think him innocent...EXCEPT for a niggling doubt that this is just the kind of thing a really clever wolf would do. And our undertaker is no fool. There are others I'd vote for before him - but I'll be keeping an eye open.

Written in haste - more later.

*looks down* I see lmp has posted while I've been writing this. I'll think about his points later, too.

[Anguirel]

Call me a fool if you like, but I suspect half of the lot our undertaker has just "presumed innocent"...

Kath's defensive, which doesn't clear her in my eyes. Menel is too cool-headed. Firefoot is too skilful to be ignored. Glirdan and Eonwe are entwined in suspicious suspicion of each other...

From his shortlist, though, Celuien has an aura of menace...calm under fire...sa-ha! but as I must stress, with so little knowledge, none of this means anything. Only Orome or Tulkas could let us fell a wolf ere the second day dawns...and I fear neither are on our side at present.

Ah well. How many werewolves does it take to light a torch?

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

And Celuien, I am shocked at the report you give me of the peformance of those knives. Shocked. Did you leave them out in a dewy morning as I instructed? Did you bathe them in raw egg (an absolutely necessary step)?

Of course you did. You are the most careful of craftsmen. It's just that, with all the hundreds of knives I have sold, I've never had another bad report. Well, I am flummoxed. But to show my good faith and to try to make amends, I am willing to refund you a full ONE-FOURTH of the price you paid. I'm sure this will more than make up for any inconvenience.

Well, should we meet again as innocents in happier times, perhaps we shall discuss your offer.

Back to business...

Adding another problem with LMP's plan. It's already been pointed out that the leader becomes the automatic target for the wolves. Automatic targets are bad because they don't leave a trail for discussion of why the wolves picked said villager. Rather than being able to debate if the villager was on to something and eaten for that reason or chosen as a safe bet, the conversation becomes "So-and-so was our leader. The wolves ate the leader" End of story. So I have to add my name to the list of those who oppose the plan.

Glirdan's vote swings seem odd. But because of his reasoned response to lmp's plan, I'll willing to presume him an innocent for now, with the caveat that he probably bears watching. Bergil has also been acting strangely, but he did preface the early vote wth a warning, so that doesn't give me anything on go on. Another one to keep my eye on.

Which leaves this list:
Presumed innocent (mostly my same list from before - nothing happened to change my mind on them)
Anguirel
Menel
Lalaith
Me- of course I don't suspect myself. As far as I'm concerned, calm under fire is the only way to keep from going out of my head in this nightmare era.
Firefoot
lmp - disagree with his plan, but the fact that he offered one speak well for him.
Eonwe
Kath - I'm not really inclined to put defensiveness down to wolvishness unless combined with other signs since innocents have reason to defend themselves too.
Kuru - another seeming voice of reason
Wilwa - no reason to suspect her from her post.
Kitanna - gives reasonable enough analysis.

Bear watching (only mild suspicions of anyone here):
Glirdan
Bergil
for reasons given above
WaynetheGoblin - just because I don't have anything to draw conclusions about him from yet.
tar-ancalime - just because I'm not really sure what to make of her. Gives a good response to lmp, but there's just an odd feeling about her. Nothin concrete.

Hmm, that doesn't really get me anywhere. Of the watch list, I'm most likely to suspect Glirdan for the sudden opinion changes, though this is only a MILD suspicion. I'm far from ready to vote for anyone yet.

Have to run and get myself ready to go to the shop...

[Kath]

Well I'm back again and as promised a quick look at Bergil and Glirdan since they have voted and have voted early.

Bergil:
All we have from him is a joke at the beginning, though still one putting Glirdan in the suspect seat. Then, after no other posts we get a vote for wilwa, with the reasoning of:

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.

Is he saying that she already had her reasoning written out? I can't really work that out.

Glirdan:
Actually there's quite a lot of substance in his posts. Well thought out arguments and a good answer to LMP's leader plan.

Hmm, ok then for now I shall think of Glirdan as innocent even with his early vote as of course that is due to time differences. SO, he voted for Eonwe, a look at her will come next - damn school!

[WaynetheGoblin]

Glirdens vote is odd bringing him up to the second space on my list of people i think are wolves.

1. bergil

2. glirden

3. nowone else that i can see.
++bergil

[wilwarin538]

those statments did not take 33 minuites to type.

Actually they did. I got half way through and had to take a phone call.

The fact that you used that reasoning to vote for me is very strange. First of all cause it doesn't make any sense. I don't get why me taking 33 minutes to type something would be suspicious.

I would have rathered you vote for me out of randomness then to leave an excuse like that.

Just wanted to clear that up, I really must part. I'll be back for the entire hour before voting is closed. Right now the only one I can see to vote for would be Bergil, just cause his reasoning makes little to no sense.

EDIT: just saw Wayne's vote. He suspects Bergil and Glirdan for their strange votes, and then votes for one strangely? hmmmmmmm

[Firefoot]

I wish I had more time to go through all this with a fine-tooth comb, but I don't. And I'm also not sure how much time I will have later; I want to see how close I will be cutting it before trying it out today.

So at this point, LMP and Kitanna feel innocent to me. I thought that Bergil's reasoning for voting for Wilwa were strange, though I can't tell anything about Wilwa herself. Glirdan's not sitting quite right with me. I'd like to hear more from Wayne; he seems more like a passive spectator who votes than anything else. Kuru feels very analytical, as usual; probably leaning innocent. I want to hear more of substance from tar-ancalime. I could go either way with Menel and Celuien, though also probably innocent at this point. Eonwe feels mildly suspicious, and Lalaith is definitely not sitting right.

I may have missed a few, but I'm running out of time. Hopefully I'll be able to come back and let you know why. For now:

++LALAITH

It really is mostly just a feeling. I hate voting early.

[Anguirel]

Two things to offer-a jest and my probable vote...

Originally Posted by Celuien

Bear watching (only mild suspicions of anyone here):

Didn't know we were hunting for a bear as well!

And now...the course I'm planning to take:

As far as I'm concerned, nothing anyone says today is a justifiable basis for voting for them at this stage. Unfermented wine, if you like. We should examine it in the light of knowledge we get later, but now it's no help at all.

On the one hand, naturally, this makes it rather tricky to decide who to vote for without picking at random.

But there is this silver lining. For want of any better guide, we can feel free to vote for whoever we feel is irritating and unhelpful, safe in the knowledge that at least they are no less likely to be a wolf than anyone else. And the most irritating and unhelpful contribution I'm seen so far by many leagues is Wayne the Goblin's cobbled together backing for his vote.

I shall therefore feel no remorse at all in voting for Wayne in a few hours, even if he is innocent, even if he's gifted, actually. He provides no style, no substance, no analysis, and no wit, and on this day where we lack any reasonable evidence, he royally deserves to swing for it.

[Kuruharan]

This is another annoying thing about DAY ONEs. People end up voting on the basis of personality, which isn't any guide to hidden agendas.

I'm actually less inclined (at the moment) to suspect people who vote early because I don't think a wolf would do that, unless under duress. I think a wolf would be more inclined to stick around and mess with the voting at the end.

[Kitanna]

In the next couple of hours I will have to cast my vote and I have no much to go on.

Bergil keeps popping up on people's suspects lists. But I don't think I can vote for him today. His vote for Wilwa raises questions, but so does Wayne's vote for Bergil. I find both suspicious, not because of when they voted, but how they voted. But DAY 1 randomness will lead to it I suppose. I will of course watch them, but most likely not vote for them today.

As for Glirdan, who I named earlier, I still hold suspicions, but in his own suspicions he was quick to change his mind from post to post and I'm not entirely sure a wolf would do that.

So later I will go through everything again and see what I can find. Hopefully I can find something better and use it to vote.

[Anguirel]

When I vote for Wayne, rest assured it will not be anything to do with his personality. I'm sure he's a charming and delightful chap, but at the moment he's being about as much use in terms of his comments as a common garden slug.

[Kath]

Finally I have enough time to make a proper post!

Well now looking at Eonwe I don't really understand why Glirdan voted for her. She mostly comments in answer to other people, and twice about the problem of day 1 being slow.

There is this comment:

well, as they just had 24 hours to pm about stratgy, either they are very lazy, or the answer is no.

In response to Lalaith possibly setting out a wolvish plan. It's quite jokey but I suppose it could be taken as a defence.

Then there is this:

we could pick an innocent to lead us, which would yeild two resolts:

1) lynching of a wolf. that wold be good and our leader would be praised.
2) lynchin of an innocent. that would be bad, not only because we killed an innocent, but because we now cast suspicion on yet annother innocent. not to mention we wouldn't get anything as way of a trail.

or we could pick a wolf to lead us, also yeilding two results:

1) the wolf chooses to lynch a wolf. that is good and bad. we kill a wolf, but clear a wolf as well.
2) he lynches an innocent. good because we would suspet him.

all in all, i think it could be a worthy plan. but we should use it later on. and don't ellect me as leader, either.

In response to LMP's plan. This seems to me a fair analysis of the paths such a plan could take and she came up with the same final opinion as me, using it later. And I do believe she posted that long before me so the similarity can't make me think her guilty either.

She then has to repeat all these points because someone questions her about it, either Glirdan or LMP I haven't quite been able to work out which. In fact she repeats it almost exactly word for word without any protestations of unfair treatment or loud claims of innocence, which makes me feel that she is innocent.

So overall I really do not understand Glirdan's vote for her unless it was completely random as he said - twice. And the repetition there made me pause.

Eonwe is because he backed up Lmp's idea so this could be a misguided innocent OR a Wolf agreeing with a fellow Wolf's plan OR a Wolf agreeing with an innocent's plan which would almost insure a Wolves vistory.

Was the reasoning but Eonwe explained that she wasn't backing up this plan and having seen her posts I disagree that she was in full support.

Still, I don't know if Glirdan's (in my opinion) unsusbstantiated vote should then cast suspicion on him. So, let's have a look at everyone else.

Anguirel - Some extremely bad jokes at the beginning but I suppose we can't lynch just for that! Then an almost threat, which I am inclined to take as an in-character comment though it did make me think a bit. Then, finally, he gets more serious and gives reasons why LMP's plan to elect a leader would be unhelpful,which I agree with. Names his suspects with reasons and explains why he is either more or less suspicious of various people, which will help for future reference. Seems to be casting doubt on the strangely widefelt perception that LMP is an innocent, which I think is a good idea. Then suspects me, Menel, Firefoot, Glirdan and Celuien - again with reasons and a sort of decision that Celuien is the one he is most worried about. Then, after all these lists and suggestions, he decides to (probably) vote for Wayne based on his unhelpfulness so far - a good point. Definitely an odd one that bears watching.

Bergil - Did him earlier. Couldn't find anything to be suspicious of or to think him innocent because he has barely posted - irritating but not suspicious.

Celuien - Begins with seemingly no knowledge about anyone and just provides a quick list of what everyone has said. Opposes LMP's plan with reasoning. Makes lists of who she does and doesn't suspect, but there is no reasoning behind why she has picked some of the ones she sees as innocent which I would like. And really that's about it. She has posted quite often but only the two or three most recent ones have contained anything of use.

Eonwe - Already did. Could find nothing suspicious - but am now fearing she is in fact a he.

Firefoot - Requests that those who talk make substantial posts not just chat in order to catch out the wolves. Completely disagrees with LMP's plan, finding no use in it at all. Appears to be in a rush and I think that's real because it's rare for her not to make lists and put real reasons and evidence behind her words. Though she has been strangely uninvolved I will give that the benefit of the doubt until she can explain.

Hmm, I'll have to wait to do the others. Must go learn.

[tar-ancalime]

I see that the village has been busy in my absence. I do apologize; but a girl's got to make a living.

Here are my thoughts thus far:

I've divided this list into "benefit of the doubt" and "baseless uneasiness" as opposed to "innocent" and "guilty" because, well, what do we really know toDAY?

Benefit of the doubt:

lmp has quite adeptly controlled the conversation all DAY, both in content and in sheer number of posts. Is he a truly helpful innocent, appointing himself as our leader in the absence of an election? Or is he a wolf, cleverly steering the discussion from the very beginning? Either way, he's not getting my vote toDAY--he did get us talking, and if he is a wolf he won't be able to hide in plain sight like that for long.

Firefoot, Glirdan, Kitanna, Kuruharan, Eonwe, Celuien, Kath, and Meneltarmacil have made thoughtful and original posts that have given me pause and helped me think through this DAY. None of them will get my vote.

Baseless uneasiness:

Anguirel's flippant posts are amusing and in character, but I would like to hear more of substance from him. He has named a lot of names toDAY and invoked Orome more than once, but there's something in his posts that feels wrong to me. Despite Kath's assertion that he gives reasons for his suspicions, I think he's simply casting his net as wide as he can toDAY.

Bergil and Wayne have been very reticent, and both voted early. I'll reserve a strong opinion on that for a DAY or two, until we start to see how everyone's schedules shake out. In the future I want to see more substantive posts from both of them, though.

I'd like to hear more from Lalaith and wilwarin; however, since neither has voted, I suspect their contributions will resume after I go to bed (very soon).

As it's getting rather late in this longitude, I've got to cast my (mostly random) vote now.

++ANGUIREL

In the end, his net of suspicion is cast just a little too wide. I've got an unsubstantiated, first-DAY feeling that he's trying to divert our attention from something.

[littlemanpoet]

I cannot wait any longer. I may not be able to get back from the grave yard to vote later, so I must vote now.

Kitanna is fading from my suspicious list.

Anguirel's strange comment, that there is NOTHING that can be said on Day one that can be useful for voting, is spurious, and that gives me pause about him: it's either really bad logic from an innocent, or a wolf trying to steer things a bit. I'm leaning toward the latter.

Nevertheless, tar ancalime still does not sit right with me.

I still suspect Bergil for reasons I've offered earlier.

So.......

++ TAR ANCALIME

[Lalaith]

Anguirel – starts by jesting. Doesn’t like lmp’s plan, approves of Mene because he didn’t either. Agrees with Kitanna about Glirdan. Finds Kath too defensive, Firefoot too skilful, Eonwe and Glirdan’s mutual suspicion suspicious. (Actually, Eonwe hasn’t really voiced suspicioms of Glirdan.) Finds Wayne so irritating that he will probably vote for him.
Bergil – makes glib comment about Glirdan, then rushes in with a vote for Wilwarin, on what seems unreasonable grounds.
Celuien – starts off in character but then makes reasonable assessment. Doesn’t want to make random accusations, but says she will vote later. Makes reasonable assessment of everyone, plumps for Bergil, Glirdan and Wayne as suspicious – also tar-ancalime. Fair enough, except perhaps her suspects are too easy and obvious.
Eonwe – starts off admitting he has nothing to say but wants everyone else to explain their theories. He wants to wait on Lmp’s plan. His comments seem candid and actually quite reasonable, I feel fairly comfortable about him.
Firefoot – wants everyone to stop chatting and say something of substance. Fair enough, but in the very early stages, how? Analyses Lmp’s plan and finds it wanting. But later says she now finds LMP and Kitanna innocent. She doesn’t like Bergil’s vote, knows nothing about Wilwa, wants to hear more from Wayne and tar-ancalime. Kuru, Menel and Celuien leaning innocent, suspicious of Eonwe – I don’t feel right at all (she doesn’t say why) so she votes for me. I know it’s bad werewolf form to suspect people just for suspecting you, but I must say I was quite surprised by this.
Glirdan – his first post is mostly frivolous. Then he gets serious, he really doesn’t like Bergil’s hasty vote, lmp’s plan or Eonwe’s semi-support for it. He wants to vote for lmp. Then he thinks lmp is innocent because lmp attacked him back, and also for some reason changes his mind about Bergil. Still suspects Eonwe. Then he says he actually quite likes lmp’s plan after all but still isn’t convinced enough to go along with it. Then he votes for Eonwe but says its mostly random.
Kath – randomly picks villagers 5,10 and 15 to defend themselves and generate debate. Opposes Lmp’s plan. Later defends Eonwe at length, and assesses other villagers, up to Firefoot. Most of her comments are sensible. I’m inclined to trust her.
Kitanna – agrees with meaningful talking but not Kuru’s silent plan. Then she comes back later, says she can understand Wilwa’s length of posting time but also with Bergil’s hasty vote. Quite likes Lmp’s leader plan. Is as confused by Glirdan as I am. Finds Bergil and Wayne suspicious but doesn’t want to vote for them yet. Now thinks Glirdan’s flip-flopping might make him NOT a wolf.
Kuruharan – is mostly talking sense but seems to recommend silence and is himself saying less than I’d expect him to. Still, could be plenty of innocent reasons for that. Doesn’t like lmp’s plan. Points out that lmp talks a lot. Doesn’t like any plans, in fact. Doesn’t want a double lynching. Doesn’t suspect early voters.
Lalaith talks a little last night, disagrees with LMP's plan this morning, but acknowledges its usefulness. Writes monstrous post in the afternoon.
LMP – starts off in character but then moves on to suggestions. Appears to ally with Firefoot. Comes out with leader plan, then points out its flaws but says it would still work. Attacks Glirdan for attacking it. Then admits it was flawed on purpose and as a result suspects those who seemed to support it, ie Bergil, Kitanna and tar-ancamilie. HOWEVER: he sets great store by how quick people were to oppose his plan, overlooking that he posted his plan at 2 am for some of us. This is flawed logic which makes me worry that his plan was spurious. (He also says I was posting in character, in fact this amounted to just half a sentence. But I’m prepared to overlook that slur) Doesn't suspect Kitanna anymore, very much, still suspects Bergil but doesn't feel right about tar-ancamile at all and so votes for her.
Meneltarmacil – immediately suggests that wolves are likely to be “middling”. villagers, unless they are very smart or very stupid.
Says he wants to focus on Celuien, at random, but then makes an odd suggestion that I was talking to my fellow wolves, Eonwe points out that would be odd as the wolves have just had 24 hours to talk. Comes out with sensible objections to lmp’s plan.
Tar-ancalime – first post just character. Then she says that lmp’s plan makes no difference. Comes in with a good post just now, points to Ang’s evoking of Orome (nice one, I hadn’t picked up on that) also suspects Bergil and Wayne, and wants to hear more from me and Wilwarin (hope she’s satisfied now as far as I’m concerned!) Thinks Anguirel is casting net too wide so votes for Anguirel.
WaynetheGoblin – not much at all to go on. Thinks Bergil and Glirdan are wolves and votes for Bergil.
Wilwarin538 - her first post is entirely frivolous. Is angered by Bergil’s vote for her which she says makes no sense. Says she will probably vote for him but also finds Wayne’s vote strange.

What to make of all this? I haven't decided yet.

[Lalaith]

It's wide open at the moment:

Wilwa (Bergil)
Eonwe (Glirdan)
Bergil (Wayne)
Lalaith (Firefoot)
Anguirel (tar-ancalime)
tar-ancalime (LMP)

(Lynch nominees first, voters in brackets)

[Kath]

Despite Kath's assertion that he gives reasons for his suspicions, I think he's simply casting his net as wide as he can toDAY.

I do think Anguirel had some reasons for his suspicions though they weren't fantastically detailed, but I agree as to him being a little off somehow. I think that's a fair vote from, erm, do you mind being called tara? You are female and it's easier than putting your whole name every time.

Anyway back to people.

Glirdan - Already looked at and I ended up thinking of him as an innocent with a strange vote.

Kath - I believe I have been suspected by a couple of people. Good to see no one is taking the old loud = innocent route.

Kitanna - Disagrees with Kuru about being silent on Day 1. Thinks Bergil's vote for wilwa was baseless. Thinks LMP's plan will be good if implemented later. Unsure about Glirdan's flip flopping between suspects. Suspicious of Bergil, Wayne and Glirdan with reasons. To be honest I'm thinking innocent. She doesn't post a huge amount (which is nice, takes less time to look at!) but when she does post it is with substance and in response to other, as well as naming and explaining suspicions.

Kuruharan - Doesn't like the idea of random picking of names or the idea of talking - though he argues against his own idea. In response to the suggestion by LMP that a wolf leader could choose to lynch a wolf, he seems to reply with almost telling him how to go about making this work. Now I am not really keen on proposing that LMP and Kuru are wolves making a plot in the middle of the Day because they could so easily wait until toNight but it still made me think. Anyway, then agrees choosing a leader is a bad idea, in fact states he wants no plans at all. Throws suspicion on LMP and asks for no double lynchings. Doesn't like people voting due to personality and doesn't think a wolf would vote early. Possibly another instruction?

Lalaith - Insults Anguirel and asks people to talk. Answers my random questioning of her with all she could at the time. Grateful for LMP's plan, though she disagrees with it, since it generates an actualy discussion. Wants to keep an eye on LMP in case he is being a clever wolf.

littlemanpoet - Waaay too many posts to do this for. Suffice it to say I think he came up with this plan just to get people talking. However, he has posted about twice as many times as everyone else, which could be a way of hiding behind being loud. Also, that thing with Kuru I thought I came across earlier. I don't want to suspect him because I find him quite helpful, but right now I can't help it.

Meneltarmacil - Believes the wolves will not be loud or quiet but in the middle. Wants people to talk. Suspects Kuru and Lalaith, seemingly for their opposing ideas. Doesn't like the idea of having a leader, and thinks if we do said leader will be eaten or lynched a Day after being chosen. And that's it. No more ideas on suspects or anything. Where has he got to?

tar-ancalime - In character to start with, with absolutely nothing useful said. Dislikes LMP's plan and thinks that it won't really matter if we implement it since it will only make what happens anyway more obvious. Thinks LMP's loudness could be a front for wolvishness. Also unsure about Anguirel, Bergil, Wayne, Lalaith and wilwa - finally voting for Anguirel. Not many posts and too much of each is in character. But that final list was good.

WaynetheGoblin - No suspects, says he will list them tomorrow. Then suspects Bergil and Glirdan, voting for Bergil. Absolutely no reasoning behind his vote for Bergil. Suspects Glirdan for his odd vote. 2 posts people! If he doesn't post more he's going to get himself lynched.

Wilwarin538 - One of my original three. Questions me about why I chose her. Possibly defensive. Accuses everyone jokingly. Pretty unhappy about being voted for - again defensive. Suspects Bergil for voting for her.

Soo, suspects for me I think would be:
Kuru
LMP
wilwa

Want to watch:
Anguirel
Glirdan

I don't really have anyone I definitely think innocent, except myself of course, though there are plenty of people I'm not sure on yet.

Apologies to all those of you bored to death from this post. It's more for my benefit so I don't have to find it all again!

EDIT: crossposted with Lalaith, who said pretty much the same things.

[Anguirel]

While I have about half-a-dozen wild wolf-voting-for-wolf accusations on my tongue relating particularly to my old chum LMP and to tar-ancalime, I can't believe that the villagers would be stupid enough to lynch their only fool, in Mandos' name. Where will you be without someone to patronise and kick? Where will you get your source of vague satirical unease, vital to any scene of horror? And surely you all know that a jester is the only member of a court who always speaks the truth...you wouldn't sacrifice my frankness too. You're better than that, village.

As such a precious member of village society, I shall preserve my skin till the opportunity comes to sacrifice it in rather more style. I have no wish to be dragged into a cycle of "you made a mistake, therefore you must die" lynching. So I shall emulate my brother fools. I shall smile. I shall receive my insult like a cur who knows he has been justly beaten. I will turn away, my bells ringing as I do so, and follow my own unpredictable, but, I hope, diverting, path.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN

As for this:

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Anguirel's strange comment, that there is NOTHING that can be said on Day one that can be useful for voting, is spurious, and that gives me pause about him: it's either really bad logic from an innocent, or a wolf trying to steer things a bit.

The undertaker is moonstruck in more ways than one if he seeks answers in the logic of a fool.

[Kath]

Hmm and I missed LMP's vote - for tara. He said earlier that her fence-sitting behaviour was causing him to be suspicious of her, as well as her late opposition to his plan. I'm not sure the second is a fair reason for suspicion due to the differing timezones. Maybe LMP voted for her in retaliation for her suspicion of him.

[Lalaith]

Actually, LMP's blithe disregard for time zones is my main worry about him.

[Celuien]

On consideration, I'm going to go with my watch list. Glirdan and tar-ancalime have made interesting, reasonable posts, so I won't vote for them. Which leaves a choice of Bergil or the Goblin. Bergil's actions, while odd, were explained. Which leaves

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN

[Kitanna]

Much of what I was planning on saying seems to have been said already. So I'm going to try not to repeat what others have already stated because no one wants to read a post like that.

I've stated Glirdan, Bergil, and Wayne as suspects, but I am not sure I want to vote for them. Glirdan has me confused, but at this point I am inclined to move him quite low on my suspect list. Bergil and Wayne both have rather baseless and random votes, but seeing as it is day one and my own vote (and I'm sure other people's votes) are random.

lmp seems to be the one trying to generate the most conversation. I like that. He is proposing ideas and defends them and it is causing people to say more. Which is very good. I think he is worth keeping around for a while.

Firefoot, Kath, and Menel all disagreed with lmp's plan and I can see where they are coming from. Of course it has a terrible downside, but most of the plans used in WW do. Kath and Firefoot both make very helpful posts. Menel does too, but I find Firefoot and Kath's more helpful than his. But all three should be kept around past DAY 1.

Kuru also had a proposed idea of silence and then everyone simply votes. Now that is an easy way for a wolf too hide, but also a rather foolish thing for a wolf to do. Wolves like to take a bandwagon approach and if everyone is silent there is no way to bandwagon without calling attention to oneself. At the moment I'd say half of me thinks Kuru is a wolf and the other half doesn't. I'll watch him closely in the days to come.

So that leaves me with Anguirel, Lalaith, tar-ancalime, Wilwarin538, Eonwe, and Celuien to vote for.

Anguriel seems to be leaning toward Wayne because of Wayne's lack of substance. Somewhat random, but at the same time reasonable. It is easy to get rid of posters like Wayne because they often confuse the village. So I see where he is coming from. Of course that doesn't mean I'd put in that vote today.

Lalaith disagreed with lmp's plan, but sees how it can benefit us as a village. She wants us to talk more. Which of course is an easy place for a wolf to hide in.

Tar said little to start with and then disagreed with lmp's plan. Asks for more substance from Anguriel. Also states "something feels wring in his posts." Interesting... Also calls to hear more from Wilwa and Lalaith.

Wilwa has really said nothing of much help. Thinks Bergil gives a stupid reason for voting for her and questions Wayne's vote.

Eonwe as usual calls for explanations of people's suspects and votes. Quite reasonable really. Can't really understand Glirdan's vote for him.

Celuin has been the least helpful for me personally. Her second post was slightly helpful in summarizing what had been said so far and she said no one was suspicious in her eyes. She maintained that standpoint again in her third post. Then she mentions Glirdan and Bergil and says she will keep an eye on them. Then she says (under Glirdan and Bergil) that tar and Wayne bear watching. It was nothing truly helpful to go off of.

++ CELUIEN

This vote isn't entirely random, but it is not very concrete either. I tried to find neon signs that pointed out the wolves, but it is just not happening. Hopefully tomorrow will be more helpful in rooting out the wolves.

EDIT: Votes stand as such:
Wilwa = 1 vote from Bergil
Eonwe = 1 vote from Glirdan
Bergil = 1 vote from Wayne
Lalaith = 1 vote from Firefoot
Anguriel = 1 vote from tar
Tar = 1 vote from lmp
Wayne = 2 votes from Anguriel and Celuin
Celuien = 1 vote from me

[Lalaith]

Kitanna, you're right that it just seems too easy to get rid of Wayne. I'm not at all convinced he's a wolf, but on the other hand, I don't want cause a double lynching.
Nine people have voted, six are left to vote. I don't think voting is compulsory in this game, so of course not everyone who is left is necessarily going to vote.
Currently I have no super-strong wolf suspects. However I feel most uncomfortable about Glirdan. After him comes Bergil, I think. Wayne and Wilwarin are not being constructive but I'm not sure this means they are wolves. Wilwa seems more suspicious than Wayne to me.
On my watch list is LMP, who worries me. Mind you, he has a history of worrying me. Also on this list is Firefoot, followed by Menemeltarcil, Anguirel and Kuru.
Still reserving judgement on Celuien, tar-a, Kitanna. Feel most comfortable (at the moment, anyway) about Kath and Eonwe.
I'll hang on a bit to vote.