WW XXIX Dor-en-Gaur

[Firefoot]

The first thing that caught my eye was how Rikae jumped on Ang at the get-go. He had posted once, and it seems like a pretty harmless post, and all of a sudden Rikae (and Lalwende, actually) are proposing conspiracy theories between him, Gil, Celuien, and Boro (Interestingly enough, those other three are now dead and innocent...), and she votes for him - which I also don't understand since she also says "I'll be back before the deadline." Which she was, at which point she switched to Volo - which seemed almost like a knee-jerk reaction. She repeated this on Day 2 - vote early, come back and change the vote. In fact, this could have ended badly since she did not have a vote to change when Durelin declared herself. If Rikae was a wolf, this would actually be a clever strategy - no one would be able to blame her for not changing a vote that she wouldn't want to change anyway.

I don't notice anything interesting about Ang until he starts campaigning against Volo. I still think that this post of his was rather logical... except that I don't really think that Volo's posts before Ang's post are all that suspicious - it's the ones that came after. But his accusation wouldn't really look so suspicious if not for the fact that he decided Volo really wasn't that suspicious after all when he started attracting more votes.

Okay, this kind of died as I started looking at posts and not writing anything down. But one thing I did notice was that while Rikae had been keeping up a pretty steady suspicion for Ang until about 2/3 of the way through yesterDay, Ang hardly mentions her at all, and when he does go through everyone, he's pretty vague about her.

I'm starting to wonder if I'm not trying to force it here. I'm not sure anymore that my suspcions of Ang are founded. Rikae, I'm still not sure about. There's not a lot of concrete evidence; it's mostly gut feeling - and those can be dangerous, both to ignore and to follow.

[Durelin]

Durelin is in a very cozy position right now; immune from lynching and most likely protected by a ranger. It was very coincidental, too, the way two gifteds were up for lynching days one and two! I'm inclined to believe Boro, because of the hinting Mith pointed out (although even that could be contrived), but I'm not at all sure Durelin is what she claims to be.

Cozy my butt... There's only one Ranger left. If the other Ranger protected me last Night, which is certainly possible...I have no protection.

You're the only one who is continually arguing the point that I am not the Ranger. The others are willing to assume because they know that there are three wolves out there, and we have to go on something if we're going to have any hopes of surviving.

If you really are a wolf, which I think you are, you're getting bold, aren't you? And you have every reason to...three of you left...we probably are blind to the other two wolves... What do you have to worry about?

I'll save my vote, though. We need to get a Wolf, and a couple chances to change my mind still might come in handy...

[Durelin]

I'd like to address just a couple more things real quick:

It's interesting how Rikae was so "omg, we need to save her!" toward me yesterDay after I revealed myself, but now toDay, now that morm is dead and found innocent (likely as she knew), she knows it's safe to attack me and stir up doubt...and whether or not you're very certain at all that I really am the Ranger, you have to realize that she is drawing our attention away from Wolf hunting in general.

Okay...so I'm pretty focused on Rikae, too... I'll go look at everyone else, too, though I'm going to keep assuming Boro's innocent.

Also, I'd like to say I really feel stupid for deciding I should vote mormegil. I'm sorry. But everyone seemed to kinda feel like morm was being overlooked...and I wanted to save myself. Yeah, really bad.

I hate wanting to do that, but I'm Gifted. So I feel like I need to help in any way I can.

It sucks.

[Firefoot]

Also, I'd like to say I really feel stupid for deciding I should vote mormegil. I'm sorry. But everyone seemed to kinda feel like morm was being overlooked...and I wanted to save myself. Yeah, really bad.

Everything that happened in that last hour yesterDay was really rushed - kind of like someone hit a panic button. Mormegil was probably a poor decision that we all got rushed into without any proper analysis or thought. I guess we can't really do anything else but move on.

I kind of feel like I'm totally overlooking Lommy right now. There really aren't that many people left in the village, and it seems like a bad idea to be giving anybody a free ride.

I wish there weren't so many of you on the wrong () side of the Atlantic... There aren't enough people around.

[Boromir88]

Durelin is one of the two rangers, there's no doubt in my mind. If somebody is saying since she's still alive that means she could be bluffing and could be a wolf that is simply some flawed thinking.

The Wolves want to keep up their two kills at night as long as possible. If one of the rangers revealed themselves, the wolves probably thought the other ranger would protect her and therefor choose another victim that would be less likely to be protected.

Quite frankly I'm surprised I'm still alive too. But not completely, right now I am probably a bigger danger to the wolves if they kill me than if they keep me alive. As so far I've done complete squat when it comes to lynching a wolf.

Durelin, Thinlo, and Mith all seem innocent. If one of them is a wolf I deserve to be dead. I didn't want to put a lot of 'trust' into everyone, but I feel I have to start to if we have any chance of lynching a wolf here.

That leaves:

Rikae
Farael
Kath
Anguirel
Firefoot
Lalwende

Now Rikae has been one that's got me worried here. Durelin commented the change from saving her to now suspecting her. Also:

Going by the theory that the wolves are eliminating threats (since it's the only theory we have so far), his suspects were:

I don't necessarily agree with that. Rikae, you're trying to look helpful by going through the wolf kills. But that above doesn't sit right...because Gil is not one to be a threat to the wolves.

The wolves started out picking off people who could be potential problems, yet were unlikely to receive protection from the rangers (Roa and Mac)...then last night looks like the wolves didn't want to leave a trail behind. Neither Eomer nor Gil were 'big talkers' yesterday. It looks like these kills were more to cover up their tracks and not give us anything to go on. That whole 'going by this theory since it's the only one we have so far' just doesn't seem right. It looks like your helping by pointing towards the wolf kills, but there's nothing to find, because the wolves killed two people who didn't leave much to go off of.

For that matter, we should look at Rune, he might have known who the wolves were, or they might have known what he was.

Here's another suspicious looking statement. You looked through Gil's and Eomer's posts, but stop at Rune and simply say 'we should look at him he could have known who the wolves were'...but you don't provide anything about Rune's post. Simply you leave it as that, we should look at Rune; and do not follow through.

I have a feeling either Firefoot or Lalwende is a wolf. Either Firefoot is onto something with Lalwende (I mean Firefoot has said some convincing stuff against Lal), or seeing as the wolves are getting closer to victory they are becoming more bold and starting to throw easy lynch victims under the train. So far, I think Lal is more likely the wolf.

Another thing about Lal is she makes this remark about Mith:

Mithalwen seems quite taciturn and snappy compared to yesterday.

But I think I can say Lal has been quite snappy in some situations herself!

This has already gotten quite long, and boy has it gotten late here. I'll continue with Farael, Kath, and Anguirel later this morning.

[Anguirel]

The name's Anguirel. Anguirel the Merry.

In darkness or in light, I have a license to kill.

Okay, everyone. The golden dagger is mine. Rule me out of the running along with Boro and (for now) Durelin. I want our Rangers to try and keep me alive for as many nights as possible, probably just the next one - but I will also kill by day. Probably including today. My kills will be uninfluenced by democracy and driven by my judgement and (a little) of those I trust.

I'm very sorry about Celuien. I thought she was a little too nice and too bandwagon-prone. You'll notice I killed her as painlessly as possible. I didn't like going for her. And the disastrous aftermath...

Yesterday, I chose very carfully; I was also considering picking Kath or Lal, but there's a very grim history around Hunterish types killing Kath, which made me superstitious, and I just wasn't sure about Lal.

I analysed Rikae and Kath for my own benefit:

CASE 1 – RIKAE

1-optimistic, focussed, not sure she would recognise Lommy as evil
2-role question
3-fears bold wolf. Thinks Roa, though, might be uncontroversial wolf. Doesn’t trust Rune or Cel.
4-role speculation
5-Defends relative lack of impetuosity. Against lynching villagers just because. Confused by dynamic. Doesn’t suspect Boro or Cel. Suspects me, Rune, Roa. Votes me.
6-Is insulted by, and suspects, Volo.
7-Votes for him. Would a wolf exploit emotion like this? A low tactic.
8-Pally with Mith (probably not wolves together, then)
9-Banter with Durelin

10-Suspected Cel. Why say so? To appear honest? Suspected Firefoot. Thought Boro might be bluffing. Rune reticent. Gil confusing, not wolfish. I merit some analysis because of my Volo case. Wonders why wolves killed those two.
11-Banter with Farael
12-Doubts Boromir. Suspicious when reiterated?
13 Suspects Firefoot and Farael. Still thinks Rune holds something back.
14-Explains defensiveness. Suspects Morm. Comes out in favour of Gil’s innocence. Suspects me – too casual, hiding.
15-Wasn’t apologising. Defends vote.
16-Claims to have been defending Boro.
17-Most suspicious – me, Farael, morm.
18-Role talk. Revenge-suspects Durelin. Suspects and votes morm. Suggests Seer.
19. Agrees with me – no Seer
20. Comes back, votes Durelin
21. Out of votes – would change
22. Asks who’s dead

Quite consistent, with some odd exceptions.

CASE 3 – KATH

1-Talk about Hunter role. Banter about suspicion. Wonders about the gallup.
2-Pleased Gil is involved but thinks something’s up. Pleased about Lommy for facile reasons. On the fence about Roa. Bit suspicious of Lal. Things morm usual and Boro strange. Votes Boro (so is probably not a Werewolf if Firefoot is).
3-Role talk – thinks there might be a Seer. Hasty summary leaves out Rune and Firefoot, probably by accident. Notably defends Lal. Suspects a lot of people.
4-Missing Firefoot was an accident. So was Rune. Suspects Firefoot most. Doesn’t suspect me or Durelin.
5-Votes Firefoot.

Suspicious. But it’s pretty bad karma to kill Kath as a “hunter”. I’d rather go for who she defended, Lalwende, or for Rune.


I still think Kath's propensity to defend Lalwende is very interesting.

I also analysed Eomer, and ended up thinking he was a Ranger. But that's irrelevant now.

[Lalwendë]

Now this is worrying. We have three people claiming to have special roles and seven who have said nothing. Only one more Ranger remains undeclared. If our Ranger does declare it will mean we have four 'specials', and then three wolves and three ordos and it will remain for the last six to slug it out. Unless in desperate circumstances we get everyone claiming to be the last Ranger? Who's going to believe the real ranger now? It's not the best circumstance to be caught in. I wouldn't want to say anything because nobody would believe me. And what's even worse is that when Night comes again there are just not enough Rangers to mount a defence now

Or has something very, very wrong happened? We've gone on all this time believing this or that person just has to be in a special role, together with convictions that certain villagers just have to be innocent and tied ourselves in knots and now got to this impossible situation. If we're putting our trust in the wrong people then we've been duped, big time. It would be a very clever strategy for wolves to force a situation where they were being suspected and then to throw in a 'reveal' at the last minute, not least as it would also get the Real specials panicking and 'revealing' and then none of us know where we are.

[Mithalwen]

Just a couple of things(I am on a library computer which is being v slow...) before I catch up... I want to point out a couple of things Lal said were patently not the case - that I was taciturn and that I had dropped Boro...

I don't "do" taciturn as you may have noticed and as for Boro ..he wasn't under suspicion and didn't need my defence day 2 but I did hilight the early post which gives a damn good hint that he is the hunter.

Lal only started suspecting me when I pointed out a few interesting things about her.... following Lommy's remark that tipped me off.

YEs I have been dim on the narratives but while (sorry fellow mods) narratives are entertaining I am so used to them scrupulously providing no clues that I skim them for the identities of the dead and then get on with the posts of the players where I hope to find clues. Given that I don't get a chance to look at the thread til half way through the day and then only perhaps for half an hour is it any wonder that I wasn't au fait? I am afraid I got an idee fix from the original narative which was wrong and survived too long...

I don't want to waste so much time on this becasue while I am increasingly sure Lal is a wolf (and hoping to goodness that this isn't one of those two innocents tearing each other apart things...) there are three wolves out there and most of the people I felt more innocent are dead... I am fairly sure of Boro, and am inclined to place Lommy and Firefoot at the less supicious end of my list ... but I have a lot of reading to do ......

[Mithalwen]

Oh Ang that makes soooooooooooo much sense ....... you poor darling.... you really have so little luck withthis game but you make it so delightful.....

[Mithalwen]

I meant Celuien and past history .. good call on Rune

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't "do" taciturn as you may have noticed and as for Boro ..he wasn't under suspicion and didn't need my defence day 2 but I did hilight the early post which gives a damn good hint that he is the hunter.

Lal only started suspecting me when I pointed out a few interesting things about her.... following Lommy's remark that tipped me off.

If indeed Boro is the Hunter? It was such a strong defence and mounted before he 'revealed' he was the Hunter. Of course the case was then cut and dried and there was no need to defend him; isn't it a wolf trick as well to divert attention onto someone innocent? Which is what happened on day two.

I also note that I have been criticised for latching onto what Eomer suggested but I'm not the only one to 'latch on' to someone else's suggestions. And why wouldn't I want to defend myself? There have been enough innocents killed already.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh Ang that makes soooooooooooo much sense ....... you poor darling.... you really have so little luck withthis game but you make it so delightful.....

Yet the other day he calls himself "Master of Beleriand" and says how good he is at this game? Which is he? Why's he thrown this 'revelation' out there, when he's not even under threat?

I get the horrible feeling we've all been duped as this game has suddenly turned on its own head. Some things seem just too carefully paced and staged. The only person I still have a good feeling about really is Lommy. I can't even be sure of Durelin now. Surely all three of Boro, Durelin and Ang can't be lying?

Anyway, if they are all being honest, even if we do get a Wolf today the odds are now small.

[Thinlómien]

I'm pretty assured. The wolves are Rikae, Lalwendë and Farael. They must be.

I read the village through reading only those people's posts who're still alive. On Day1, Lal, Rikae and Farael hardly mentioned each other, if at all.
On Day 2 both Rikae and Lal started suspecting Farael. Lalwendë started making theories of me + Farael wolf duo and Rikae continuously displayed suspicion of Farael. However, neither of them really attacked or made a case against him. Rikae ended up voing morm, of whom she expressed far less suspicion than of Farael. Lalwendë didn't attack him either, but that's less suspicious than Rikae's actions; Lal wasn't as "worried" about Farael as Rikae was. Notable, again Rikae and Lal hardly mentioned each other.

Then to the persons in general and today.

Rikae has been acting like classic "wolf under pressure" today. She starts wildly questioning the revealed gifteds and starts flooding analysis on this and that, on matters that really don't have that much significance.

Lal has been quite like that too toDay, at least about the gifteds and she has said in the past days and keeps saying things that make me uneasy about her.

Farael's the one I'm least assured about. I can so easily picture him deciding just after getting the news he'll be a wolf that he will pick some villager that is not suspected very much and keep suspecting him/her and everybody who defends this person... and everyone'll just think he's his normal weird self. I can so easily see him hiding behind his weird guy -reputation. Besides, as I've said, normally when he has these obsession-like suspicions, he still talks about other things too...
There's just one but. It's that both Rikae and Lal started suspecting him on Day2. That might be too much for wolves.
In that case I think Kath's the last wolf; Firefoot seems innocentish and I can't picture her being a wolf partner of Lal's and Rikae's, Mith seems innocent and I can't imagine her and Lal being companions and I trust the revealed gifteds.

~*~

Mr Anguirel Bond, honestly speaking you freak me out. That you can kill whenever you will is somehow unsettling, though I know you're on our side. I just hope we can trust your judgement...

[Anguirel]

Lalwendë m'dear, relax. What's bothering you? A bad case of fleas maybe?

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Yet the other day he calls himself "Master of Beleriand" and says how good he is at this game? Which is he? Why's he thrown this 'revelation' out there, when he's not even under threat?

I know that you are entirely capable of recognising jokes. I can therefore only assume that you are using that exclamation of mine for sophistrical purposes.

"I am the true King of Beleriand", indeed. Do I look like a freakishly tall Elf? I might as well have added "And I ride a fluorescent pink dragon, too."

I revealed myself to help the enquiries of my fellow villagers by narrowing things down, as I think is relatively clear.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

I get the horrible feeling we've all been duped as this game has suddenly turned on its own head.

I agree with you here. But I am not among those who have duped this village, and I am increasingly certain that you are.

Some things seem just too carefully paced and staged. The only person I still have a good feeling about really is Lommy. I can't even be sure of Durelin now. Surely all three of Boro, Durelin and Ang can't be lying?

No, oddly enough, they can't be. Quite right. Gold star, m'lady.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Anyway, if they are all being honest, even if we do get a Wolf today the odds are now small.

Aren't you being a bit pessimistic...or optimistic maybe? Actually, our chance of bagging a wolf is probably in the region of 50%, when I've succeeded in persuading you all that Mith is innocent anyway. Add my assassinations and it rises still higher.

The suspects are now, assuming all the Gifteds so far are truthful -

Rikae
Thinlomien
Kath
Mithalwen
Lalwendë
Firefoot
Farael

Three of these are wolves, and I intend to ensure that at least one, and hopefully two, evildoers lie dead by this eve.

Give me some very good reasons, Lalwendë, why I should not thrust the burnished blade of mine into your heart.

[Anguirel]

Presently I suspect Lalwendë and Kath. Ideally I would like to lynch one and kill the other. But I will consider other options.

The last Ranger should perhaps consider revealing themself if they're under threat, though an unseemly battle of claimants will probably ensue.

[Lalwendë]

Why are we forcing the last Ranger to reveal? Given the odds even if Anguirel does have the Golden Blade and if we do get a wolf today, then that plays into the Wolves hands/paws. I wouldn't want to have to do this.

Then there is simply the risk that we've got it all wrong. If anyone has been lying or even saying they have a role when one of the others has it, then it's risking a lot. You have to be 100% certain before you can risk this. far better that the Ranger remains hidden, even if they are now at real risk of getting lynched today.

Assuming we're not going to force the last Ranger to throw it all away then I am thinking of Farael actually, Lommy. If you read what I wrote yesterday he remains on my suspect list. And I have no good reason not to remove him from that.

[Rikae]

I'm going to give up answering all the suspicions; they don't seem based on anything in particular, anyway.

Yes, I do suspect Durelin now. Last night I panicked and didn't want a ranger killed, but now that I have a chance to think about it, she seems very likely to be bluffing. Apparently everyone else is ready to blindly trust her, (even to the point of treating her as a seer). I hope when I'm gone you'll have the sense to turn a critical eye on her.

As for looking at Rune, I started to, and then had a sense of deja vu. I already summarized all his posts yesterday, and reading over the posts again the only thing that jumped out was Kath's omission; which Lommy brought up.

[Firefoot]

At this point, I think that there is no chance at all for either Ang or Boro to be bluffing. The real extra gifteds would be able to come out and call the bluff. Since no one has challenged it...

As for Durelin, she could be bluffing, but I doubt it, unless her goal would have been to keep herself alive for only one more day (possible, I suppose). But I think that she'd be exposed rather quickly - for one thing, it seems very likely that she would have been protected by the other ranger last night - I don't think it very far-fetched that both rangers would have thought like that, if Durelin was not actually a ranger. And there goes her cover - the other two rangers would find each other out.

There's no way to know for sure whether Durelin's the other ranger or not unless the other ranger reveals theirself - which I think would be foolhardy at this point. However, only the real ranger would declare at this point; anyone else could be proved wrong.

There really isn't any reason not to trust Durelin right now. There would be two other wolves, at any rate; and if Durelin wasn't the real ranger, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that she would be found out. So let's look at everyone else.

I don't like Lal's and Rikae's almost obsessive focus on the fact that the revealed gifteds could be lying. It's not beneficial; not trusting these gifteds would be stupid at this point. It seems to me that they're panicking a bit; after all, right now we have slightly worse than 1/2 chance of catching a wolf - and if we do, there will be only one kill tonight, meaning we get to keep our gifteds longer.

I'm glad to see that Ang is gifted - I didn't want to suspect him, but he kept coming up... so that makes it easier for me.

[Rikae]

I need to stop caring so much about a game. I'm going to post a list and then take my children out to play in the snow. I will try to be back before the deadline.

Farael - He looks wolfish with his altered playing style, but then again, that didn't bear out with Morm. Slightly suspicious.
Lalwende- The things Mith pointed out - "parasitic" posts and excessive scorekeeping, are things I've seen her do before and so don't strike me as particularly suspicious.
Lommy- Seems exceedingly sure of herself and quick to pick up on other people's suspicions and run with them. Still, she's brought up some good points and doesn't look especially suspicious.
Durelin - Is a wolf in ranger's clothing, although I'm afraid no one's going to listen to me until it's too late.
Boromir - If he was a wolf, he started preparing to play the hunter early in the game with his hints. Since revealing as the ranger would be safer for a wolf (there being multiple rangers), I'm inclined to trust Boro.
Anguirel - Is a loose cannon. I suppose if he really can kill during the day, he can prove his claim; but the chances he'll kill an ordo; or even a ranger, are disturbingly high.
But he's obviously not a wolf.
Firefoot- Has looked suspicious from Day one. She's posted a moderate amount, furthering other people's suspicions without attracting undue attention herself; going with the crowd. Suspicious.
Kath- Has been hanging around in the background, showing up with few, but substantive, posts. Suspicious..
Mithalwen - Seems to have a one-track mind of late, which makes me think her innocent at this point in the game.


EDIT - X''d with Firefoot

[Boromir88]

Lal put all this foolish Ang is a bluffing wolf behind. It looks to me like you're getting very desperate here, and just scratching at anything to save your skin.

If Ang was a wolf, I would expect the real 'golden dagger' guy to reveal him/her(self) and that would be the best thing for the village. I think you are forgetting here the wolves want to keep their two kills per night, they've had and with their amazing success so far, what's the point of making such a claim? Where does that get them? That gets them with a lynched wolf and drops them to 1 kill a day. You understand how deadly that is to the wolves? To lose their 2 kills per day? No wolf would make the revealment Anguirel has considering the situation.

[Boromir88]

Ok, so here's where we're at

Gifteds:
Durelin
Anguirel
Boro

I believe to be innocent (though don't take this as they are innocent):
Firefoot
Mith
Thinlo

That leaves for possible wolves:
Farael
Kath
Lal
Rikae

Ang, I'm wondering what gets you suspicious about Kath? I'm wary to vote for her (or have you kill her) if you aren't at least someone confident. If you are going for Kath/lal for the kill, I will hunt the remaining three at night. Firefoot, Mith, and Thinlo, could very well be wolves, but I would be darned surprised if they are. I wanted to know what you think of this little plan?

[Firefoot]

Ang, I'm wondering what gets you suspicious about Kath?

I'd like to know this, too. She's always seemed pretty innocent to me.

I'm not really sure I like this golden dagger role. It puts a lot of power into the hands of one person that isn't blessed with any special knowledge.

[Anguirel]

Look at Kath's second and third posts. In the second, she indicates she's somewhat suspicious of Lal.

In the third, she conducts a deeper analysis of her main suspects. Among them is Lal, whom she now exonerates almost entirely, for rather suspicious reasons - i.e. she's nervous, inexperienced, too verbose to be a wolf, etc. I'll look back and quote the parts that raised my, er, hackles.

And I know my role is incredibly irritating to pretty much everyone. Were I not the assassin, I know I would resent the existence of one. If it's any consolation, it should be giving the wolves cause for fear as well. No longer is a low profile or a persuasive tongue a shield from death - in fact, it might prove a magnet for it.

Ha! Scotland have scored! That's a good omen...

[Thinlómien]

I think that last post of Rikae's was pretty wolvish. I can't explain it very well, but she said pretty much the things I had expected her to say. Since I've been thinking she's a wolf, I find this disturbing.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I don't like Lal's and Rikae's almost obsessive focus on the fact that the revealed gifteds could be lying. It's not beneficial; not trusting these gifteds would be stupid at this point. It seems to me that they're panicking a bit . . .

I agree with you here completely...

I'd like to lynch either Lalwendë or Rikae toDay.

I hope they just are as lycanthropish as they seem...
But maybe if Firefoot, Mithalwen and Kath are wolves, they deserve to win.

I'd like to hear more from Kath and Farael. They've both been way too quiet for my taste.

edit: xed with Ang

[Firefoot]

All right, good point, Ang. I also noticed this, in Kath's first post:

So we're supposed not to rely on past suspicions. Very well. Boro, Eomer and morm are all innocent! That probably goes for Lommy, Volo and Roa too. And Rune and Gil.

All dead - and all innocent (well, Rune to the extent that he wasn't a wolf - and we don't know if the wolves know who he was, either).

However, your evidence, Ang, is largely hinging on whether Lal is a wolf. If she is, then yes, killing Kath could very well be worth it. If she's not, though, I would be extremely wary of killing Kath.

How exactly does your role work - as in, when can you make kills, and when do you have to decide?

[Kath]

Ooo-kay. So, Ang is the GDB, Boro is the Hunter, Durelin is a Ranger and there is one more. I don't think anyone is lying about having a role, so that leaves:

Rikae
Lommy
Mith
Lal
Farael
Firefoot

One of which is a Ranger and three of which are wolves.

Mith I still believe to be innocent. I've played with her enough times to know the style of 'Mith with a role' and I haven't seen it at all.

Lal I still believe to be innocent. I have not played with her before but she seems a well intentioned innocent who has become caught up in the game. Those of us who play often know the possibility of being suspected for anything and everything and watch our words, and I think it's that which has caused Lal trouble. I don't think it's anything wolvish.

Lommy I still believe to be innocent. My feeling that her floodposting and obvious sheer enjoyment of the game mean she isn't a wolf still holds strong.

Rikae I was suspicious of to a certain extent yesterDay. The defeatist attitude she has presented us with toDay has made me more suspicious of her. That particular ploy is generally used by innocents who are worn out by continually defending the accusations thrown at them, but this is only Day 3 and it's not like she was under attack Day 1. She may well be a wolf.

[B]Firefoot[B] I am still suspicious of. She is very defensive, something I don't remember her being in the past, and appears to be trying to generate confusion around the Hunter role as well making some very odd statements about it. Since she has been mentioned she has become less defensive and more verbose, I think to deflect suspicion. Possibly a wolf.

[B]Farael[B] is someone I have had trouble getting a handle on. He began in his usual style, loud, certain and going after someone relentlessly, but he changes his mind, goes after someone else, even going so far as to say he might find his original suspect innocent under certain circumstances. Not normal Farael behaviour. The next Day he rushes in to say 'oh actually, ignore that' which is again odd. As far as I can see this is the only example of such a slip, but I do think it's a slip. He too may be wolvish.

Therefore my list reads:
Firefoot
Rikae
Farael

I've probably cross-posted with a whole page of posts. I've had this written up for about 3 hours now and have been unable to post it because either the 'Downs or my internet is screwed up. Because of this I'm going to vote now in case I can't make it back later.

[B]++FIREFOOT[B]

[Rikae]

I just noticed something strange:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

All right, good point, Ang. I also noticed this, in Kath's first post: All dead - and all innocent (well, Rune to the extent that he wasn't a wolf - and we don't know if the wolves know who he was, either).

That's odd, Firefoot: I wasn't aware Boro and Lommy were dead! I suppose you could have forgotten that in your haste to point out that they're "all innocent", though...
that assumption could be understandable with Boro, but you can't be sure about Lommy - if you're an ordo. Maybe you forgot that?

EDIT: X'd with Kath.

[Firefoot]

Wow... I think my brain just took a vacation. That didn't even make sense.

[Rikae]

It's very simple. You just quoted a list of names and said "now we know they're all dead and innocent". Lommy and Boro were on that list, but they are still alive. I could believe that you might consider Boro a proven innocent and include him for that reason, but Lommy is not in any way proven innocent, however much you (or I) might trust her.
The fact that you carelessly designate her as such implies that you have some knowledge the rest of us don't and forgot to hide it. Of course, since we have no seer or weaver, that would make you a wolf.

[Mithalwen]

I don't thinkanyone has mentioned list bod (yeah I went back and read the narratives more carefully... ). Presumably list bod has some info and is on the side of the angels? If they do they we may be able to get the upper hand at last. Especially since the Rangers can now be fully effective and Ang and Boro ( if he is attacked ) have a much narrower field of suspects.

Ang -don't reveal the extent of your power if you feel it would compromise your operational effectiveness or will help the wolves.

I wonder if part of the greater wolf's power was that only he could receive messages from Rune? Obviously he would have passed it on but maybe if we had caught him the info would have stopped. Also I get the impression that he only saw who one ranger protected not all?

[Firefoot]

Somebody's quick to condemn.

[Rikae]

Uh huh, you. I believe you had a whole argument based on the "all dead and innocent" statement above - without even stopping to check and see if they actually were!

[Mithalwen]

Ang dear try not to take the Calcutta Cupgame too much as an omen will you or your role as a chance for vengeance ?.. . I may be English ..well Anglo-Irish...but I am innocent.....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

[B]++FIREFOOT[B]

This vote has been registered even though it was not bolded.

Just to make everyone assured about it.

[Thinlómien]

Based on that last post of Kath's, I wouldn't be too surprised if she had some furry co-operation with Lal... But I'd rather see Lal dead than Kath anyway, since I think the boggart's far more suspicious overall.

That slip of Firefoot's is clearly interesting. I think she either
1) Is a wolf and made a slip.
2) Did not properly notice I was on the list. If this had happened I think she maybe would have said it aloud though...
3) Trusts me far more than anyone should trust anyone (except maybe revealed gifteds) at this phase of the game.

[Anguirel]

Oh, and this is why we should accept Mith as nigh on a proven innocent -

Not only is her style, as most people seem to agree, compatible with her innocence (not good enough: she's had more successful outings as a wolf than I have and can master a mask perfectly well), but look at her response to the killings of Night 2.

She wrongly corrected Lommy's statement that the wolves had been responsible for two deaths, apparently interpreting my killing spree as a lupine act.

The wolves would of course know which kills they were responsible for, and I'm almost certain Mith was not acting the confused innocent - such a tactic is both too convoluted and too low to be plausible.

I therefore regard only the following as suspects:

Rikae, Lalwende, Firefoot, Lommy, Kath, Farael.

Almost as important as likely combinations are unlikely ones. The obvious thing to rule out is a trio involving Kath and Firefoot. They followed each other on the Boro bandwagon too closely, and Kath has voted for Firefoot too often, for this to be very plausible. Firefoot and Rikae also don't work much, due to Rikae's savage denunciation of Firefoot's slip.

As Mith noted, wolf sacrifices will be rarer in this game.

Farael and Lommy are another bizarre combination for obvious reasons - possible, but, I'm inclined to think, a conspiracy too far.

I was ready to practically exonerate Firefoot until that slip. I'm still fairly confident in her because she isbeing attacked from two quarters I regard as suspicious, Rikae and Kath.

For me the most clear solution, based on these animosities, is Rikae Kath Lal.

I'm considering forgoing my kill today unless things become easier to piece together, but if so I shall still kill in the Night.

[Firefoot]

Uh huh, you. I believe you had a whole argument based on the "all dead and innocent" statement above - without even stopping to check and see if they actually were!

A) I wouldn't call myself "quick to condemn"; I never once said that Kath was a wolf, or even that I was convinced of it. Note the whole "If Lal's not a wolf, none of this really holds up." B) A whole argument? I was thinking that I was supplementing Ang's argument. I would never lynch someone based on that little piece of "evidence" alone.

It was a bad (and very suspicious) mistake, I'll grant you that. But it was an honest mistake - I just wasn't paying attention. That's all I'm going to say about it.

[Mithalwen]

Cheers Ang ... I am an ordinary innocent so we still have a ranger and a list bod in your list ...leavin only one other ordo ...

I am going to read asmuch as aI can with this in mind ..and bearinginmind that gifteds can seem a bit "off"as they have slightly different priorities ....

[Boromir88]

Mith the man with the list is moi

[Thinlómien]

I thought the one with the list was the cobbler-Rune...

[Lalwendë]

Slightly psyched out by freakish events at Lal & davem towers here this afternoon but anyway, time for me to bung on some analyses:

There is a possibility that we have been caught up in a plan, a cleverly executed one, which involves an amount of lying and deception. If you're not prepared to entertain that fact then on your own head be it, but do bear in mind you may cause the deaths of more innocents. We haven't been too clever so far have we? Me included.

Some of my old suspects remain. There is Farael, and from that cohort there is still Mith, and Firefoot was also associated with it. All of these I have had odd feelings about over the last couple of days to varying degrees. The only one who is throwing me out is Mith as she is not the Cobbler as I was convinced she was, though that does not preclude her from being a wolverine. I am still deeply bothered by Firefoot's sudden appearance last night and all that confusion which saw Morm getting lynched by a bunch of us. And where is Farael now? He's been as quiet as Rune was (quieter?) and we know all about him.

I am still sure Lommy cannot be involved as the plot I worked out involving her and Farael was just too twisted. I am also still fairly sure of Durelin who has never struck me as cagey, bold maybe, but not hiding anything, despite her mistakes. I think she was cruelly forced to reveal her identity last night which of course would put things back onto Firefoot.

But moving on. Boro has struck me as honest, though I have not at any point took this as the absolute truth. Remembering what Rune said, we can trust nobody in this game. Still, I don't think I would vote for him. Rikae is all over the place, and I would class her alongside Lommy - it looks odd but there's no cunning plan in place, it would have to be truly baroque to stick. Kath I am really not sure about as she has not said that much but what she has said has been clear and concise. I am watching her now, could she be in league with Mithalwen? Could she be the last Ranger? Either one of these is true. And Anguirel might be one funny guy (who could forget his quivering zabaglione?) but I am really, really thrown by his need to 'reveal' at a moment when there was no need which makes me think it was a feint.

I shall vote soon-ish, after I have attempted to eat something. I know pretty much who it will be, but I want some thinking space to be certain.