Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Mithalwen]

Trust me..the numbers aren't great. We are no nearer to getting a wolf than yesterday ......and even if Roa is the cobbler, unless the Ranger is having a good run, tomorrow morning 1 in 4 of the village are wolves.

[Durelin]

Our odds started slipping from the time our Seer was outed, but it's only Day 2. We're far from lost yet. A lot happened toDay, which means a lot to look at tomorrow, and we will likely (hopefully) have at least one known innocent in Nogrod.

Edit: Cross with Mith

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now.

Funny wish from one who hopes only the best for the village.

++ Roa_Aoife

At least we'll learn things.

If this is a great bluff and they'll kill me toNight remember to hang the PanMan toMorrow... if you don't have a splendid reason not to.

[Rikae]

--Mithalwen

++Legate

[Mithalwen]

And 2more players may have gone. SpM isn't entirely a shot in the dark.

And Rikae's spite vote doesn't convince me ......

[Rikae]

Can't let my work be undone. You have Nogrod and Roa as known quantities...

goodbye!

[Roa_Aoife]

Too late, Rikae, your plan has failed, and now everyone will know what you really are.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To Rikae: Who do you think we should lynch? I thnik it's not possible to retract it this fast but you cayn give us one last advice before you... erm, you know, probably...

EDIT: x-ed with Rikae (lol?)

[Roa_Aoife]

Praise ERU! My work is done, and you have lost both your seer and a Day in which you could have caught a wolf.

[Rikae]

Don't lynch Roa - you'll know what she is when I'm dead, and she isn't a wolf!

[Nogrod]

Please calm down people...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

At least we'll learn things.

Oh yeah ..we won't lose in ignorance but I prefer to maximise the odds

[Macalaure]

DEADLINE

You have lynched your Queen!

(this post will (hopefully) soon be edited into the narration)

edit: since there have been posts after the deadline, I will make a new post for the narration - it would look stupid the other way...

[Nogrod]

Rikae: Either I don't understand the reasons for your heatedness or then there are even bigger things here...

[Rikae]

I told you...

[Macalaure]

It was a day of eventfulness on the peak of Meneltarma. Long speeches and sharp comments were exchanged and never have the debates been more heated.

After lengthy explanations of Roa, Rikae arose and spoke against her, accusing her of being none other than the Queen of Númenor and in league with the Faithfuls that come to murder them.

Of course Roa_Aoife rejected this vehemently, but now for the first time the Númenoreans wondered why Roa always kept herself veiled under a headscarf. What may lie hidden beneath it?

“I say we shall lynch her!” demanded Kath “Only this way we will know for sure who she is, and who Rikae is.”

“But no!” answered Mithalwen “This would be foolish! Our numbers are too few, and if Roa is indeed our Queen, then at least we know we have nothing to fear from her but foul counsel.”

Many now spoke for one side or the other. Some even spoke for both, and even Roa herself was among these in those confusing hours.

“Alas! How can we know what Rikae said is true, or what Roa said is true?” Nogrod sighed “All good deeds we could do rely on the hope that we trust the right person. I wish it was not hope but assurance – that assurance we used to have before the Shadow of the West came upon us.”

The situation was to despair over...

“Do you know what I think?” said the Saucepan Man “I think there is only one way that I know of for us to know something for certain. It might be foolish, but I will rather do this folly than another.”

And with these words he drew a dagger from under his coat and too quickly for anybody to prevent it he stabbed Roa in her chest and blood sprayed from her opened heart. Some came to her help, but it was too late. The Saucepan Man took off Roa’s scarf and there everybody saw the crown of Westernesse: Roa really was Ar-Zimraphel, their Queen, who was no longer on the side of her peoples. Tar-Míriel laid back and did her last breaths, but as she did, she laughed at those around her in tragic triumph.

Thus she left the circles of this world, and only Eru knows her fate after death.

*~*

The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two
Roa_Aoife (Tar-Míriel / cobbler) - stabbed to death on Day Two


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Macalaure]

One more dark night was passing, and once more four Faithfuls wandered over the island to seek a victim of their choice. Late, they knocked at the door of Rikae.

“What do you want?” said Rikae’s voice from inside, but nobody answered her.

“Who are you?” she said, with fear in her voice. She dared not to open, but she didn’t had to, because in this moment the door was now broken down with force. Four hooded figures entered her room and stood around her bed. One of them stepped forward.

“You are the High Priest of Sauron the Accursed, aren’t you?" asked the one "If you know so much then, you will surely know the song that was once sung by this lands’ people?”

“I do not know what you speak of!”

“I see. So let me sing it to you:

The father made the World for Elves and Mortals, and he gave it into the hands of the Lords. They are in the West. They are holy, blessed and beloved: save the dark one. To all they gave in measure the gifts of Ilúvatar.
The world is fair, the sky, the seas, the earth, and all that is in them. Lovely is Númenor. But my heart resteth not here for ever, for here is ending.

And, indeed, there will be one ending: right here and right now.”

And right at these words one of the others came forward and thrusted a sharpened iron tube into Rikae and she answered their questions no more.

*~*

Once again, two persons were missed when the Númenoreans assembled in the morning, for Glirdan was gone as well. They searched his hut, but found nothing. Then they went for Rikae’s. They saw the broken door and evil dawned on them.

There, in the middle of the room lay Rikae, if it was her at all. Her body was grossly disfigured into the shape of a ship, with three iron tubes sticking from her like chimneys and her eyes hanging from the side like anchors.

All people that were present fell silent in horror...

“Let’s look at it positively:” said Gil-Galad after a while “Rikae will now go without the wind, and many parts of her are made of metal that shears hidden rocks, and she will not sink in calm or storm.”

“But she is no longer fair to look upon.” responded Brinniel, overtly disgusted.

Thus they brought Rikae to the sea and they let her remains fare into the west, to follow her King.

*~*

Back on the hill, they saw a new body upon the heap of corpses that piled upon Garin. Glirdan lay there, dead, and his blood covered the other dead. A letter lay there as well, but nobody bothered to read it this time. Only rolling eyes and shaking heads were seen: This approach was not going to work...

*~*

The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One
Garin (ordo) - decapitated with a scythe on Day One
Holbytlass (ordo) - committed suicide to revive Garin in Night Two
The Might (ordo) - committed suicide to help Holbytlass reviving Garin in Night Two
Roa_Aoife (Tar-Míriel / cobbler) - stabbed to death on Day Two
Rikae (High Priest of Annatar / seer) - killed and reformed into a ship by Faithfuls in Night Three
Glirdan (ordo) - another one who committed suicide to revive Garin


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Gil-Galad
the guy who be short
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Nogrod]

4 against 11. About 1/3

The eleven though have a Ranger, a Hunter and a known innocent for two Days + a host of information from previous Days. So I can begin the Day yet again with a “cheer up!” call - although Glirdy's passing was pretty bad.

So we really need to get some faithfuls next. And here’s my plan then.

I’m going to make some analysis & tell you of my thoughts about people here and do it as long as I dare today RL (I have an early morning call tomorrow RL).

I’m not infallibe, on the contrary, but you can trust that these are done with a good intention. So read them, chew them – agree, disagree, bring new points forwards... in no way accept them as I present them. More minds realise more things.

We must just remember that there are four people here who know exactly where I’m right and where I’m wrong. And they will do a lot to twist them. Although I’m not sure if they brave an all-out bandwagon toDay already...

One more thing to remember then when we approach the deadline. The wolves number four. They may create some havoc with retractions if we leave this to a last minute switching. Just think if Roa would have been here on top of them! Five votes to be changed towards the bad of us... I'm getting all the better feelings about our decision yesterDay.

You see, optimism!

Someone who has time might wish to look at the voting records by now. I think that what one could search from them is the safety or inconscipiousness. And I mean safety that goes with f.ex. voting early enough (like an hour before or something) even though able to stay online still so as not to be left as the last voters whom we normally concentrate our efforts (those who are forced to vote early are another thing). Or a kind of detachment in voting or ducking the hard choises.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

I've had a skim of as many posts as I could and have had a thought or two.

Mainly to do with Kath and her post about Roa and the reason behind the vote. It seems to me that Kath was more interested in finding out Roa's identity than weather or not she was a wolf faithful. Her post barely (if at all) mentions the possibility. This struck me as odd for surely when one is an ordo or at the least an innocent, then the desire to see faithfuls put to justice is above meer curiosity.
Unless I missed something, that whole post had an odd feel to it. Perhaps Kath was just pointing out something relevant to the conversation I will have to double check some time, but I had to post this thought to add to the discussion...

[Nogrod]

One interesting detail.

On #21 Spm says:

In any event, both mathematically and logically speaking, it is likely that at least one, and quite probably, two of our four Faithfuls have spoken already so far.

And basically I must agree with him. Before that there had been eight people posting (of 21). Of those eight one is me (innocent) and three are dead (Garin, Glirdan and Roa). That leaves four people: Mith, Lalaith, Kath and Mänwe. So we've gotten a free harvest here that has left only four candidates.

Now my only problem with this is that I can still see Spm as one of our Faithfuls. That being so it would look like a perfect possibility for a villain to notify the illogical situation (for some miraculous reason no Faithful had actually posted yet) and call it out for their benefit. Or then he was just stating the obvious even though one of his fellows had already posted...

But I think we should remember this anyhow...

[Lalaith]

I’m not infallibe, on the contrary, but you can trust that these are done with a good intention. So read them, chew them – agree, disagree, bring new points forwards... in no way accept them as I present them. More minds realise more things.

I think we should put our minds together to find the most useful way to use our known innocent. We should, Annatar willing, have him among us for two Days.
I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

[the guy who be short]

In reply to Nogrod - that's not how maths works, I'm afraid. At that point, it was likely that at least one Faithful had spoken. However, every villager today has an equal chance - that is, 4 out of 15 - of being a Faithful.

I seem to remember another village, plagued by wizards, where there was a suggestion that the known innocent, an ally of the Good Wizard, should chose the lynching candidate. I cannot remember now whether the suggestion was taken up.
But what do you think of this suggestion? Does anyone have any others? Nogrod, what do you think?

I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.

[the guy who be short]

Right-o. Today, I intend to actually get my analysis of Lommy done. I also suspect:

- All those who voted for Roa.
- All those who considered believing Roa.

For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day.

I also agree that somebody should post and analyse the voting records. Alas, I have not the time today.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I have already made a similar suggestion. I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.

I'm pretty uncomfortable with all this shortlist stuff in principle. But I will tell you what I think.

- All those who voted for Roa.
- All those who considered believing Roa.

For opposing themselves, on a mathematical basis, to the needs of the village. It is clear now that Roa intended for us to waste a day. I made it clear that I did not believe her for a second, because her argument was illogical. Because it was illogical, this leads me to believe that those who did accept it were Faithful, trying to make an issue of it and help waste the day.

I do disagree with you on this somewhat. If we already have a terrifying number of those who can influence the vote why give them one more? And no one says we would have gotten a Faithful yesterDay anyhow, on the contrary the basic odds were against us. And it was not illogical, that was the beauty of Roa's game yesterDay: it was a perfectly possible scenario.

But let's not make an issue out of this as I do believe this breaks the lines of us innocents already...

[Nogrod]

Oh I totally forgot why I decided to make a short post here...

I have no possibility to make full analysis of everyone before I need to go to sleep. It's midnight here and I need to wake up after six in the morning.

But I've been looking at Mith, Kath, Lalaith, Kitanna and Brinniel... people I have almost nothing to say as yet and would like to see more. It's not a random selection but made from a few points of view (I'd like to see closer for Durelin and tgwbs but I haven't time right now). But I'll try to have all you looked through before Day4 closes and I will leave the game next Night by the hands of the hopefully then only remaining two Faithfuls.

You know I have my doubts on Spm and somewhat to Lommy and confused about Mänwe...

[Lalaith]

that's not how maths works, I'm afraid

The maths is working against the village, right now. Three villagers drop out of the game, and all three happen to be ords. It does seem tough on us...

[Gil-Galad]

Killing off Glirdy was to me a move by the wolves to lay back and let us kill off our ordos one by one... so i think that we should watch who we pick this time and make new assumptions for everyone...

Suspect:
Manwe
SPM
TGWBS

Don't suspect:
Nogrod
Thinlomien

[Durelin]

Regardless of our odds, we have rid ourselves of a Cobbler. The wolves are ally-less, and we have two Gifteds still safe...as long as we don't try and lynch them.

Considering the number of people who actually wanted to keep Roa alive, there has to be at least one wolf among them, trying to keep things alive, in an attempt to keep their cobbler alive. Just look at what Roa managed to do yesterDay - if she continued that toDay, and the next, and... We'd be so bogged down we wouldn't know what to think. Regardless of what people said about ignoring her, I don't think anyone actually did.

TGWBS - Yes, Roa wanted us to waste a day, but her idea of what is detrimental to the village is her own...and I still think that was hardly a wasted lynch. There are still eleven of us, against four. If we had not killed Roa, it was quite likely that toDay we'd be 10 against five. If you're so gung-ho about the village's safety, maybe you would have thought of that?

But, on to my main concern at the moment...

I know Mith stated herself in apparently a bout of grief that she would be targeted toMorrow for her efforts to save Roa, which I must say were rather dramatic...and she was quite right. Her over-zealous "oh nooo, the village!" makes me think it really was just acting. Bold for a wolf, but all four of them are still alive, and boldness often gets pushed aside as proof of innocence.

At any rate, 'tis time for food...mmm...tacos...

Edit: Crossed with Gil... Err...looks like you have some catching up to do, Gil.

[Kath]

It seems to me that Kath was more interested in finding out Roa's identity than weather or not she was a wolf faithful.

Because I did not believe she was a wolf faithful, I believed she was the Cobbler. In the post I made outlining what I thought were the possibilities surrounding what was going on, the one in which Roa turned out to be the Cobbler was the one I was most in support of. The only worry I had was the fact that in previous games the Cobbler could not be seen by the Seer, and then Mac clarified that in fact they could be seen in this game so I left my vote as it was.

Today we are rid of the Cobbler and we have a known innocent who, if the Ranger can still protect him toNight, will be a help to us both toDay and the next, and since we've lost three ordo's in the space of two Days we really do need to get a Faithful toDay.

TGWBS suggests a shortlist. This early on I'm not sure I agree. With 15 people left the chance that we get a shortlist entirely composed of innocents, or worse Gifteds, is very high. But perhaps we could do something similar. If we each choose the person we are most suspicious of, along with an actual text-based explaining the reasons why, and then take the three most suspicious people and allow Nogrod to decide which should be lynched. It's entirely unfoolproof as of course the wolves will be able to see who is in the running, but at least the decision isn't as arbitrary as a simple shortlist. Again though we could get a list of innocents.

Umm, Gil, the wolves didn't kill Glirdan. He 'committed suicide' because he hadn't voted two Day's running.

I think ... I think Mith is innocent. I've just read Durelin's suspicions of her and I can't share them. I don't think a wolvish (or a Gifted for that matter) Mith would draw such attention to herself. I think her frenzied attempt to save Roa was down to worry over the numbers. To me this makes Durelin look somewhat suspicious. Quoting Mith's worries about being lynched for 'supporting' Roa yesterDay and then proceeding to suspect her for that reason would be a wonderful bluff, and I can quite see Durelin as a bold enough wolf to try that.

I wish we could hear more from Lommy. Her lack of posts has been explained but I find it hard to get a feel from her when she isn't happily flood-posting the thread!

That's all my ideas for the moment, at least the ones willing to form an orderly queue and go down on the page. I'll be around for a while yet though.

[Nogrod]

Mithalwen
I don’t see why some people have wished to argue about her first post. I’m more inclined to think those who raise it over and over again as an issue to be far more suspicious than Mith who defends herself from it. If anyone has time to check who have been the proponents of this suspicion, I would be grateful indeed.

Overall Mith plays very sensibly and makes good points (reminds Garin has been perplexing earlier too, urges us to believe Rikae’s revelation at the closing hours, points to tgwbs’s oversimplification according to how to read Roa’s analysis) and sounds innocent (sighs what to do as the Seer should be saved but the frontrunners look innocent to her, gets desperate with people clinging to her first post again and again, almost flips at the end of Day2 as we were to lynch an innocent from numbers).

But. I’m a bit worried about the way she was ready to jump on lynching basically anyone except Roa and as soon as I half-jokingly said that Spm would do for me she produced the justification that because Spm quibbled and voted hastily for Roa she would vote for him. And just a few minutes later she says:

Only 10 votes ..that is pants.. all the wolves could have abstained..or all voted and be horrifically influential.......

Now this is just the fear we should all see. I think Mith meant that the wolves are horrifically influential in the vote that had already taken place, but think also that with retractions they can steer votes even more horrifically. So why should we give them more numbers by letting Roa live? Not to say by way of actually shooting in the dark towards almost anyone. We know the mathematical ratios of random votes + have experiences about last minute frenzies... they are both bad and exactly those where cool wolves & cobblers love to play their game.

I’m not sure. Maybe she didn’t just think of this? I would say I do not suspect her a lot but I have a little nag in the back of my head still.


Kath
Kath has maintained a presence but with very little to go on. As a veteran player she knows how to survive the first Days and she seems to be at it yet again. The problem is that she every now and then turns out to be a villain and in the endgame she can be the most efficient wielder of the dagger.

But there is one thing I find a bit bothersome. She has slightly defended Mänwe on both Days. And on Day2 it seemed pretty strange. First she reminded us that Roa will not know any more of us villagers than we do but still she uses Roa’s suspicion of Mänwe as point we should note on his possible innocence.

Now this is a funny coincidence as I have already voiced my slight suspicions on Lommy who has indeed done the same thing, indirectly covering for Mänwe (look at my post #248). Now I know the werecreatures will normally not protect each other openly if one gets caught etc. (well we have exceptions to this rule also...) But this is somewhat indirect covering for him as he as a newbie has possibly taken a bit too loud way of playing the Faithful-role of his?

I don’t know what to say, but if Lommy or Kath turn out a wolf then it’s likely that Mänwe is one too. But as Kath’s reactions coincide with my other slight suspicions I must say that I do suspect her too.

[Nogrod]

Gosh how time is flying!

Just wish to say this before I wrap I my last points about a few people I've been looking at the last hours.

I really wish to take a look at both Durelin and tgwbs. Maybe some others should do that too? This means not that I now think that they are villains but some things that I have passed here and there in a rush when skimming through other things kind of make me nervous enough to wish to see what they have been up to all along. They would be good guys to have on our side so they should be checked thoroughly...

[Nogrod]

Kitanna
Kitanna has been consistent and reasonable all the time. I somehow get a good vibe from her this time (it has not been the case everytime...) even though I would so much wish to see her post a bit more. I know that one thing that made me look more better of her was her lengthy wondering of why Rikae thought we should not vote for Roa (#245) as I shared the same confusion (that was about the only thing why I thought there was a small chance that we were led astray with her earlier yesterDay – another one being that there was a genuine possibility for Roa’s case, although a slight one again).

Now I know some of you say that there is the argument of numbers (which I disagree still) but if you look at how she ponders it, it sounds genuine embarrassement for the sake of the village making her doubt Rikae a little – even though she declares in the end believing her. Now this I would say sounds like someone who really cares for the village and tries to do her best for it. So even if we have a “plain case” she has the courage to voice her doubt if she thinks there is something fishy in there.

And what a fool I’ll feel myself if I’m wrong about her, but at least for now I’m not worried about her.


Lalaith
Now Lalaith really confuses me. I mean Confuses. Just think of this.

She votes Holby because of the “whom do we pray”-sentence, speculates that the wolves might be sacrificing one of their own on Day1 (!), all this to and fro with asking Rikae whom she had dreamt of and seemed to be most confused about anything that happened in Night2...

The really odd episode was her retracting from Holby to Mänwe with stated reason that the Seer must be safe. Now what she did was getting Mänwe to 5 votes while Garin was in 6 (and Rikae in 4). If the primary reason is to save the Seer one should vote for Garin. And she clearly realised it as she answers on Day2 to Roa’s question of that vote-change thus:

Yes, I knew Rikae was almost certainly safe at that point but you never know, hasty last-minute voting by people who don't finish reading a thread, it has happened....so I switched my vote to be sure.
The two alternatives were Garin and Manwe, and I felt Garin was probably innocent - as he indeed proved to be. Of the two, I preferred to see Manwe lynched as I wasn't as sure about him.

Now all this makes sense but the bolded part. I’m not sure what to make of this. The wolves may slip when they try to come up with fabricated excuses but that’s also very humane (I’m indeed more inclined to interpret that to and fro with Rikae’s dreams as a pure mistake in thought and not as a wolvish plan immediately retracted).

Even though there might be reasons to suspect her I’m inclined not to, at least much, at the moment.

[Nogrod]

Quadruple posting...

Time to sleep. I need to look at the rest later.

Do something people!

PS. After all this I'm not so sure about my Spm-theory any more (I'm getting new ones I think). But I've not forgotten that either!

I indeed seem to be lacking a fourth one anyway...

[Durelin]

Ah, the sounds of silence...

Originally Posted by Kath

To me this makes Durelin look somewhat suspicious. Quoting Mith's worries about being lynched for 'supporting' Roa yesterDay and then proceeding to suspect her for that reason would be a wonderful bluff, and I can quite see Durelin as a bold enough wolf to try that.

It's one thing to worry about the village and not want to waste a lynch, but it's a whole other situation when you've got her, as Nogrod has pointed out, crying for any lynch victim other than Roa. Talk about a wasted lynch - a random, rushed lynch just to *save* the known Cobbler.

I don't know what a wolf Mith would try to do, but it doesn't sit right with me. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's impossible...I've seen that learned the hard way.

Alright, so I'm going to try my hand at the classic list...I haven't done this in a while, so apologies if I poke any eyes out...

Brinniel - Whoa, I forgot she was playing for a minute. She has come under some scrutiny, but perhaps not enough. She's been playing it extremely safe. It's understandable if she has no time, but that does not mean we can rule her out completely. As new to the game, with wolf-dom placed upon her, perhaps she is even a little afraid to post? I would be, too...though, my first time I got myself killed very early, so actually maybe my judgment isn't so good on that... Her vote for Rikae on Day 1 was quite cozy at the time, though I must say I thought Rikae was looking quite suspicious then myself.

Gil-Galad - Totally out there, uninvolved, etc. I know he doesn't seem to have much time for perfectly understandable reasons, but again, he can't be ruled out completely. Hopefully he can start posting more soon...I recall a recent wolf slipping by because everyone assumed his innocence because he wasn't there.

the guy who be short - Very careful and calculate; terse. I recall this being his style, though, but it has been quite a while... I feel like his opposition to Roa's lynching might have been very nicely placed. He did not shout it like Mith did, but he still opposed it. His vote for Brinniel separates him from the mess that was the Roa-Legate-a little SPM fiasco. Was that for safety, or was he simply going with what he believes? I tend to believe the latter, though it's something to bear in mind for sure. A wolf could have easily been more influential in the voting.

Hookbill the Goomba - Rather sketchy because he was overly amiable, and hasn't asserted any opinions, keeping him safe. Right now he's unable to post, unfortunately, so I feel like trying to make any judgments on him is rather futile. Besides, I think it's just his style setting people off.

Kath - Sneaky. As ever. I think I always suspect Kath. This game I feel like she's kept up the same appearance as usual (minimalistic?), but I also feel like her posts are a little less meaty. That may be just because she's busier than usual, or, when left to make stuff up about innocents to serve wolfish purposes, she finds herself lacking.

Kitanna - Even sneakier than Kath, perhaps? At least I've noticed her less, personally. Her calm assertion in most cases seems innocent, though it could be forced calmness. Right now I think she's innocent looking.

Lalaith - I agree with Nogrod - confusing. I feel like she's been brief and scattered, and is difficult to follow. I think she's been very careful not leave any trails, if she is a wolf.

Legate of Amon Lanc - He's been very amiable and helpful seeming, perhaps putting on the appearance of such. He feels kind of similar to Hookbill to me, though he has been a little more assertive in his opinions.

Mänwe - Confusing, like Lalaith. Though he has posted pretty regularly and seemed to contribute, he's avoided having to really express many opinions. Day 1 was mostly in-characterness, which spilled over a little into Day 2, and yesterDay all he really had to do was participate a little in the Roa debate and vote. I was a little surprised he wasn't the Cobbler...he's still got me confused.

Mithalwen - I've already stated what I think of her.

Rune Son of Bjarne - I totally forgot he was playing. Agh! More on him below....

The Saucepan Man - He's been surprisingly uninvolved for SPM, but he's not the only one who appears to be busy, obviously. I don't think he'd use busy-ness as a ploy as a wolf, but if he doesn't have any choice... When he does have the time, and is innocent, his analyses are very helpful. Of course, I suppose we learned our lesson about helpful analyses with Roa. I haven't seen anything not characteristic of typical Saucie, and whenever I charge after him without anything like that, I end up advocating the lynch of a ranger or something.

Thinlómien - Agh, sneaky Lommy is a scary Lommy. I know she said she'd be gone, but I do get a bit of an edgy feel from the posts she has made. I don't know if she's as "down to business" as I'm used to seeing her.

Okay, on Rune:

Originally Posted by Rune

Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

++Legate

Wait...he's got a "way better feel" about him, but he doesn't have anyone else to vote for, so he votes for him, when he pretty much knows like the rest of us did that Roa was the cobbler? Is this a disguised effort to be consistent?

Originally Posted by Rune

Even now when all evidence points towards her being the cobbler she mannage to put doubts in my mind.

I think the only sensible thing to do is to let Roa live for at least another day. . . That I think is the safest action to take.

That looks to me like he's just hopping along for the ride with other people's assertions. Yes, I need to stop using the word "assertions." And he actually acknowledges that Roa has "put" ideas in his head, though still wants to keep her alive? Did he actually doubt Rikae, or was he simply remarking on Roa's skill?

I still really don't understand what went on yesterDay with this little "save Roa" campaign. I wish we could have caught a wolf, but no one was saying that we had a likely wolf, so we shouldn't vote for Roa - we only had half of it going on: "we pretty much know Roa is the Cobbler, so let's not waste a lynch on her." I always agreed with that, but we were missing a good lynch candidate. I am not at all sure of Legate's innocence, but for now all I think he was was just the perfect easy target for...whatever went on, whether wolf driven or not.

Rune has slipped by almost completely unnoticed. When he has posted, he's been concisely helpful, and his posts are almost strategically just enough. His vote for Garin on Day 1 let him slip by nicely, and he's continued to do so ever since. At the least, he worries me.

My God that was a long post... Sorry, guys, but I suppose something has to fill this silence.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hehe, yesterDay was eventful enough while I was present, but I see that it became even more so after I left ...

A brief word on my vote as, even though I thought I had explained my position sufficiently at the time, it still seems to have caused an issue. I had to vote when I did. I did not have sufficient time to be able to form any firm opinion on anyone other than Rikae and Roa (and Nogrod, obviously). While I could not be 100% certain, I was pretty much convinced that Roa was the Cobbler. So I thought it by far the best course to vote for her than to vote for someone about whom I was unsure.

And, in retrospect and my own position aside, I am having some difficulty seeing any convincing reason for not voting for her. Had she not been lynched, the likelihood is that an innocent would have been (particularly as I seem to have been the principal alternative candidate ). So, the most likely result of not voting for her would have been 15 villagers toDay, 5 of whom would have been opposed to the innocents. And, while Roa could have been ignored, her vote would have remained valid (and retractable). That, to my mind, would have been a significantly worse position than we find ourselves in toDay. Also, while I think it unlikely that the Faithfuls would have left Rikae alive, since that would most probably have given her two further dreams, it was possible that (still being four in number) they would have taken the risk, and we would have had no way of knowing which of Roa and Rikae was telling the truth, nor could we have been sure of Nogrod's innocence. Much damage could have been done before the position was clarified.

So, I find myself rather wary of those who voted other than for Roa and, in particular, those who look to have been urging the village not to lynch her (despite this having also been the counsel of our departed Seer). I am particularly concerned over the parts that TGWBS and Mithalwen played in the affair, TGWBS more so because Mith's actions were possibly too bold, and therefore too risky, to have been those of a Faithful. TGWBS appears to have been far more subtle about it.

Finally, for now, I am curious as to what the case against me was yesterDay. As far as I can see, there were no reasons given, other than Roa's twisted analysis and Mithalwen's reference to my "quibble" (which others have noted and dwelt on far longer than I) and "hasty vote for Roa" (which I thought I had explained). Oh, and Gil's distaste for my lengthy posts.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

After all this I'm not so sure about my Spm-theory any more ...

Nogrod, despite referring frequently to your suspicions of me, you have never really explained this "Spm theory". As I said yesterDay, I was not prepared to respond to Roa's attack on me. But, I will happily answer any points brough up by those now present.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Someone who has time might wish to look at the voting records by now.

I plan on looking at the votes cast over the last two Days. Not sure whether I will be able to until (RL) tomorrow as its getting late here, although I may try to do Day 1 tonight at least. I also plan on trawling through Roa's analyses since, while Roa was clearly up to all sorts of tricks designed to confuse, confuddle and deceive, I still think that there might be something useful there now that we know her identity.

Happily, I hope to be much more active this Day, as (touch wood) work has eased off a bit.

[Durelin]

I feel like I need to make some witty comment about the subtle difference between "touch wood" and "knock on wood" as we 'mericans say, and what that might suggest about cultural differences, but I find myself at a loss...

(Now back to your regularly scheduled program...programme?)

[The Saucepan Man]

Here's the Day 1 voting record:

Durelin: ++Manwe (Manwe 1)
Rikae: ++Manwe (Manwe 2)
Manwe: ++Nogrod (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1)
Lommy: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 1)
Garin: ++Nogrod (Manwe 2, Nogrod 2, Rikae 1)
Garin: - - Nogrod, ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 2)
Brinniel: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3)
TGWBS: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 1)
Roa: ++SpM (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 1, SpM 1)
Kitanna: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 2, Spm 1)
Rune: ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 3, Garin 3, Spm 1)
SpM: ++Rikae (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 3, Spm 1)
Hookbill: ++Manwe (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 3, Spm 1)
Holby: ++Garin (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 4, Spm 1)
Lalaith: ++Holby (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 4, Spm 1, Holby 1)

Rikae reveals

Durelin: --Manwe, ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 5, Spm 1, Holby 1)
Roa: --SpM, ++Garin (Manwe 2, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1)
Legate: ++Manwe (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Manwe 3, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1, Lalaith 1)
Nogrod: ++Manwe (Manwe 4, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Holby 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: --Holby, ++Manwe (Manwe 5, Nogrod 1, Rikae 4, Garin 6, Lalaith 1)

Did not vote: Kath, Glirdan, Gil-Galad, The Might

Manwe voters: Durelin (retracted), Rikae, Hookbill, Legate, Nogrod, Lalaith

If my hunch is correct that Manwe is innocent and the Faithfuls saw him as presenting himself as an easy target in the early stages (both big “ifs”, admittedly), then Durelin’s early vote, which she only changed after Rikae declared, is a matter for concern. I am not sure that she needed to make such an early vote, since she was present for much of the latter part of the Day. Possibly, therefore, a Faithful Durelin was testing the waters for a possible lynch campaign against Manwe. There was little in the way of reasoning, as it was based upon Manwe’s “in-character-banter” and style. It was Day 1, admittedly, but it seems rather early to have been voting for a “newbie” just because of his style.

I think it worth noting that Rune was the first to cast doubt on Manwe, and Kitanna expressed early suspicions of him too, again because of his style and also for that early accusation of Nogrod, Roa, Kitanna and me (which I am inclined to see as a tactic). Both later changed tack, possibly because support for his lynching was not gathering as much ground as expected. On reflection, this might be regarded as more suspicious, certainly more cautious, than an early vote for him, since a vote is more likely to attract attention.

One cautionary note on the rationale behind these thoughts. They are predicated on Manwe's innocence. While I still think that Manwe has been talking more sense than many are giving him credit for, it does seem to me that he has given very little indication as to who he thinks the Faithfuls might be, after that early four-way accusation. It is possible that, after that early boldness, he has been advised by Faithful friends to tone it down a bit.

As for the later votes for Manwe, these came after Rikae has declared. These were from Legate, Nogrod and a last minute switch from Lalaith. I am curious as to why Legate decided to vote for Manwe rather than Garin, since Garin was on 6 and Manwe on 2 at the time, and so a vote for Garin surely stood a better chance of ensuring Rikae's safety (plus, to my mind, he looked the more suspicious).

Lalaith's late switch to Manwe is notable too. Given that Garin was the more likely by then to be lynched, it might be regarded as relatively "safe".

Rikae voters: Lommy, Brinniel, SpM, Garin

I can understand the early votes for Rikae, as Rikae most definitely looked suspicious (to me, anyway) at the time. The later votes came from me and Garin, both of whom I know to be innocent. So, there's not a lot that I can draw from these votes. They were certainly not "safe", as Rikae was under a fair bit of suspicion at that stage.

Garin voters: TGWBS, Kitanna, Rune, Holby, Durelin, Roa

This is difficult since, although he was innocent, Garin certainly presented himself as an easy target with his own manner of voting. It is quite likely that one, possibly two, of the Faithfuls seized on this. In that regard, I find the votes of TGWBS, Rune and Kitanna to be the more suspicious, as they came before Rikae’s reveal. As noted above, Rune and Kitanna had both withdrawn from earlier mild accusations against Manwe.

Durelin’s switch from Manwe to Garin is of interest as it quickly followed Rikae’s declaration, and so disregarded further consideration over possible alternatives.

Others:

Manwe for Nogrod - I don’t find this overly suspicious, as I too was concerned about Nogrod on Day 1. That said, it was early, and based, as far as I can see, solely on Noggie’s comments on Glirdan. Not a particularly “safe” vote, but supported only by minimal evidence (even by Day 1 standards).

Lalaith for Holby (retracted) - This looks like the “safest” vote of the Day to me as Holby had not been under serious supicion and was very unlikely, at that point, to be lynched. I don’t really understand her reasoning either. She refers to an “in-character” comment made by Holby in her first post as a possible message from a Cobbler to the Faithfuls. That looks to me to be very weak grounds for a vote. And why was she trying to lynch the Cobbler at that stage when she should have been hunting Were-Faithfuls? Decidedly suspicious. And not necessarily redeemed by her late switch to Manwe which, as I have noted, might also be regarded as "safe".

Mithalwen for Lalaith - I can understand why she would vote for Lalaith, given how odd Lalaith’s vote looked and she was also, I think, slightly miffed over Lalaith having picked her up on her first post comment. But, at this point, Garin was on 6 and Rikae on 4, with four left to vote (excluding The Might) and possible further switches, Rikae’s survival was by no means guaranteed. Despite having good reason (for Day 1) for voting for Lalaith, I would have thought that securing Rikae’s survival was a more important consideration. It might also be regarded as a “safe” vote, given that Lalaith was in no danger of being lynched.

I’m not setting too much store by the “did not votes”, given the explanations on the Admin thread, at this stage at least.

Since I should have been abed hours ago, Day 2 will have to wait. For now, though, here’s the voting record:

Gil-Galad: ++SpM (SpM 1)
Lommy: ++TGWBS (SpM 1, TGWBS 1)
Brinniel: ++Legate (SpM 1 TGWBS 1, Legate 1)
SpM: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 1)
Lalaith: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 1, Roa 2)
Rune: ++Legate (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 2)
Kath: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3)
Roa: ++Roa (SpM 1, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
Mithalwen: ++SpM (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (SpM 2, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Roa: --Roa, ++SpM (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 3, Brinniel 1)
Durelin: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 4, Brinniel 1)
Manwe: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 5, Brinniel 1)
Legate: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1)
Rikae: ++Mithalwen (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 6, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Nogrod: ++Roa (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 2, Roa 7, Brinniel 1, Mithalwen 1)
Rikae: --Mithalwen, ++Legate (SpM 3, TGWBS 1, Legate 3, Roa 7, Brinniel 1)

Did not vote: Kitanna, Glirdan, Hookbill

[Brinniel]

I was a bit rushed yesterday, so I didn't get to think things out as much as I would've liked before I had to vote. Roa may have been the easiest vote, but since her role was revealed, I found myself wanting to catch a werewolf instead. But maybe I needed more time to think, because now that I look back on it, I am glad it was she who was killed. ToDay is much less confusing, and I feel we can get down to the bottom of this and pick out the Faithful now that we do not have to expect a flood of posts from Roa.

Legate is still suspicious for me, he is just a little too friendly for my liking...which is again one of my reasons for voting for him yesterday. But toDay I still need to analyze him further.

And at this point I'm not sure what to think of Hookbill. I won't take him off my suspect list, but with his very small presence (for understandable reasons), it's hard to get a good judge of character.

I feel like I am at a slight disadvantage as a newcomer. I'm not yet aware of everyone's playing styles- what's normal and what's abnormal. I am certainly studying everyone's posts...and as a result I find I have a tendency to do more reading than writing.

There are others (besides the two previously mentioned) who I'd like to consider suspects: Kath, Lommy, Rune, Kitanna

I have a bad habit of going off hunches without giving good enough reason...something I'll try to avoid here. Unfortunately, toDay I simply won't have time to make a full analysis of all of those on my suspicious list. It's been a very hectic week for me, as I notice it's been for many. The good thing is that after toDay I should have a lot more time on my hands, so I should be around more, as long as I'm still alive.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Finaly a bit of attention in my direction. . . I always find it odd to get ignored.

anyways I don't really know what to say, I have seen nothing today that has changed my oppinon on anything and I am not skilled in analyzing votes.

Anyways so far Hookbill, Durelin, Lalaith and Mith are the persons I suspect the leasts, so they are probably the faithfulls. . . at least that is how it normally works out.

I am starting to belive Mänwe innocent. . .the more I think about it the more it makes sence. I mean, I have hardly ever witnessed a wolf act downright weird or stand out like Garin did, mostly when people get in the spot like in that fashion they get lynched and are odros. The wolves I only spot on small things and therefor I shall focus on these things rahter than people that stands out like Mänwe.

I suppose Brinniel or Legate are most likely to get my vote today, but it is way to early to tell. . . I am far from sure enough on anybody to dismiss the possibility of voting for them today.

[Kitanna]

I've decided to take a closer look at Hookbill. I get an uneasy feeling about him and I'm not sure why.

Looking back, Hookbill tends to lean on his status as a newbie to WW. Hiding behind a mask of uncertainty of how things work.
Day One he constantly reminds us that he is "not a good judge of character". He avoids directly accusing anyone at first. He seems a bit uncertain of Manwe, but refusing to openly admit it. He just sort of writes his suspicions off as a "lack of tact" on Manwe's part. In the end he votes for Manwe because he believes Garin is simply being sloppy. Hookbill's vote for Manwe was on instinct it seems.
Day Two in his first, and only, post of the day he continued his "not a good judge of character" defense. He had stated being busy and so his lack on Day Two was no surprise.
Today he seems to finally openly voice suspicions without masking them in a wave of uncertainty about himself. He finds Kath to be suspicious due to her post yesterday about Roa's identity.

All in all I don't like how Hookbill uses his poor judge of character and relative inexperience with werewolf. To me it seems like he is trying to cover his tracks by not tying himself down with accusations and such. I feel rather uncertain about Hookbill at the moment.