Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Kath]

We have something of a dilemma here. To lynch Roa or not to lynch Roa. Let's have a look at the possibilities:

1) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Cobbler, thus proving Rikae to be the Seer and Nogrod an innocent.

2) We lynch Roa and find that she is innocent, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.

3) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is killed toNight and found to be either the Seer (proving Roa's guilt) or not (disproving Roa's guilt).

4) We do not lynch Roa and Rikae is not killed toNight, meaning that nothing is certain and we spend the whole of tomorrow arguing the same point.

Now, for the most part I am inclined to think that option 1 is the best. However, on a re-read through just now I noticed something TGWBS said:

although I thought the Seer would see the Cobbler as an innocent

This was something I had forgotten. I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

With the 'lynch Roa' options we do at least get some facts. We'll know if Rikae is the Seer or not. The problem there is that the second we have confirmation the wolves will kill her anyway. However, if we do not lynch Roa the wolves may well leave Rikae alive toNight in order that the village stays stuck on determining the roles of those two tomorrow. There are enough villagers around that it is more likely Rikae will dream of an ordinary villager than of a wolf so the danger is not that great for them.

Basically, lynching Roa, whatever she turns out to be, looks to be the best option for the good of the village. The only way that changes is if she is Gifted. We need to know whether Rikae is the real Seer or not or we're going to be relying on false information for the rest of the game. We could lynch Nogrod in an attempt to prove or disprove her claim, but there are many innocents and only one Cobbler.

So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:

++ROA

EDIT: Apologies, had an erroneous possibility.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream.

Despite everyone ignoring, I'd thought I'd help by pointing this out. While, despite Durelin's claim, a cobbler can be suicidal, a seer never should be. To just accept getting lynched when you could keep living and providing dreams isn't very seeresque at all. In fact, it's the seer's job to live as long as possible. For her claims, she's not trying very hard to stay alive.

Though I'm sure everyone will just skip over this and ignore as they keep doing. If this continues much more, I may just withdraw from the game- there's certainly no point in sticking around now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Kath

2) We lynch Roa and find that she is the Seer as she claimed in post, thus proving Rikae is not the Seer and Nogrod is unknown.

Originally Posted by same post

So, unless Roa suddenly reveals herself as Gifted my vote will stand as:

I never claimed to be the seer. I only claimed to be innocent, which is what I am. You seem to mighty confused on your points, Kath. First I claim to be the seer, and then I've yet to claim any giftedness at all.

[Kath]

Roa, even if you are innocent, the only way we can know that and therefore lynch Rikae tomorrow is if you die or the real Seer (if Rikae is lying) dreams of you, reveals and clears you.

The second option will take Days to put into practice as a Seer not in danger of being lynched would not reveal for a mere innocent. In that case we would probably spend Days arguing over this, and so missing the opportunity to lynch actual wolves. Sometimes an innocent has to allow themselves to be lynched for the good of the village. It's hard to stomach and feels extremely unfair but it can lead to victory.

Yes I'm sorry about the Seer thing, as I said, an erroneous statement. I've corrected it. You said somewhere that there would be two roles known if we believed you and I simply assumed that meant you'd dreamt of them. I misread.

[Kitanna]

My time is limited for the moment and anything I could or would say appears to have been said already.

I have missed so much and I had something to say about Roa and Rikae. But how fast an idea can change. Here's something that is bothering me and rereading the rules has not helped. I'm guessing if the seer dreams of the cobbler their role is revealed as cobbler. It has not been that way before and the rules say nothing of such a scenario.

what to do with Roa now. I agree it would be better to let her go, she cannot do much if we don't heed to her advice, or can she?

A lot of damage can be done the longer a cobbler is kept alive.

I am a bit unsettled by this whole Rikae-seer/ Roa-Cobbler thing. As I started reading I today's posts I was willing to accept Rikae's innocence as seer and I also believed Roa was innocent. However, in light of Rikae revealing Roa I feel a shadow of doubt creeping over my mind.

Here's what gets me and makes me doubt somethings. Rikae thinks we should let Roa be.

I could understand this if Rikae knew one wolf, but she knows the cobbler and an innocent. Why suggest not voting for Roa when we have a non-innocent/ non-gifted that can turn the tide in favor of the faithfuls?

I wouldn't waste today's lynch on Roa, if I were you

later

If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you.

I realize how bad this is for me to even dare to say this, but if Rikae is the seer she is giving us horrible advice. Even if we don't listen to Roa, keeping her alive today, or maybe even tomorrow, will only be more dangerous for the village. Roa is most likely going to die anyway, but Rikae telling us not to "waste" our votes on Roa disturbs me. If Roa is not innocent we need to eliminate her from the game.

Roa's latest posts scream of last ditch efforts and it is most likely true she's the cobbler. However, I cannot understand why Rikae would advise against the village voting for Roa. I just can't wrap my mind around that. At the end of today and as Day 3 begins all this confusion will be cleared up.

If Roa dies a cobbler, Rikae is the proven seer and dies in the night. We're out a dream, but we have killed the one non-faithful who could cost the village innocents a victory.
If Roa should die an innocent, Rikae is most likely faithful/cobbler and will survive the night only to be lynched.

I realize pretty much everything I just said is all over the place and at this moment I can't really clarify things. I also know I've put myself in a dangerous spot.

The last thing I have to say is getting rid of Roa is probably the best course of action. Her lose of her calm and collected manner makes me think Rikae is most likely telling us the truth and her words should be heeded.

However, I don't like the fact Rikae doesn't want us to waste our votes on Roa. I've seen a cobbler ensure werewolf victory and it is best to get rid of the cobbler as soon as possible. I only have a little doubt that Rikae is our seer, but that little doubt is keeping me from deciding where to vote. I will most likely vote Roa, but I'll wait and see.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Kath

I know this was the case in previous games but it is possible that Mac had changed the rule here.

Given some of the powers of Sauron, his High Priest sees all.

edit: I have only once been in a game where seers dreaming of cobblers was an issue, and there the seer could identify her/him. Therefore I thought it'd be clear.

[Roa_Aoife]

You're right, it would make it easier if I died, but I'm not upset about that. Werewolf is a game where you could end up dead at any moment. I'm upset because everyone is disregarding me as lying out of hand, and it seems they aren't even really considering the possibility that Rikae is lying, despite it being my word against hers right now. Frankly, that hurts. I can understand not trusting me- I wouldn't either- but this blind trust in Rikae is more than alarming, it's down right insulting!

As I've said, my death will prove Rikae is lying (hence why she is so resistant to the idea.) I've discouraged the real seer from coming forward, becuase one innocent isn't wirth it with so many of us to burnm through. And since, you won't even consider that I'm telling the truth until I'm dead:

++Roa Aoife

Heck, if everyone changes their vote to me, we can have the first unanimous lynch in WW history. (A small dream of mine. ) I'm done contributing, and if everyone thinks my death is for the good of the village, who am I to argue.

[Nogrod]

Here's a duo I have some suspicions about, even though not so much as to wish to vote for either of them toDay. They're some of those I think we should watch more.

Lommy I thought a bit suspicious the first Day and when she started this Day throwing straws at me again I started worrying about her in full. But after doing some rereading I can't see her as my top suspect. But I'm a bit weary on her.

The one thing that striked me was the way she has handled Mänwe. She was one, alongside someone else (I can't recall whom) to contend that Mänwe even though weird spoke a lot of sense / had good points (this on halfway on Day1!). This was something I just couldn't believe then and still find it hard to understand (sorry Mänwe).

But that's not all to it. In her analysis of the voting reasons Lommy seems to give everyone voting Mänwe somewhat disputable or nonexistent reasons while she sees the trouble to find a host of reasons for Mänwe to have voted me (I think a lot more than Mänwe himself ever produced!)

So is she somehow trying to softly cover him?

So Mänwe is a second one I'm a bit at loss with. Partly due to this Lommy-connection. I thought he would make a too bold wolf and as there seems to be Cobbler candidates more than enough around toDay I'm not sure. Not the least because toDay, I think, he has been a lot more reasonable. Of course he might have received some instructions last Night from his pals...

[Mithalwen]

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I have just been refreshing a completed page.... but then noone takes any notice of me either..... Don't you realise how short of innocents we are going to be.... Roa is either an innocent or a cobbler which counts as an innocent for victory. If she is a cobbler and known, she is neutralised.

I don't think we can afford to kill her with 3 players gone voluntarily and Glirdan looking iffy......

[Roa_Aoife]

Give it up, Mith. They aren't going to listen. They believe they can asorb the loss of three innocents (Myself and the kill of the night, and Hookbill, if he goes) and still be prepared to face four wolves. Since they all seem to trust Rikae, they're also gambling the loss of their seer. At which point, they'd be at 11 to 4, with only two gifteds. Of course, seeing as their wrong, they'll be at 10 -5, albiet with their seer still alive. (Assuming that the seer isn't the innocent killed tonight.) Who was it that was trying to say the village could asorb that loss?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't think we can afford to kill her with 3 players gon voluntarily and Glirdan looking iffy......

Please Mith see also what Durelin and I said some posts ago about it. In a village with people who don't read what others write, an alarmed around at deadline cobbler might be devastating making the last retraction or whatever. I wouldn't leave even a known cobbler Roa to the village with Glirdy and Gil (no offence meant to either one ). We'd be lost then.

[Mithalwen]

Nogrod... and though the fat lady may be doing her vocalise... I am not giving up yet...

[Mänwe]

Roa, no-one has ignored you, I find what you say absurd. We are not blindly following Rikae, you yourself say it would be best for you to die to proove Rikae right or wrong.

That is our only course of action to prove finally who was telling the truth. You admit that, so don't go on about people ignoring you. Reasons why I think people have not taken up your advice thus far Mith, they haven't ignored you.

Nogrod, no offence taken, and I see your point, though it is all too easy to just say because two people agree with eachother they are in league and so must be faithful's. Did you not say you were agreeing with everything Legate or Rune was saying?

[Mithalwen]

No, I am prepared ot get killed I am not going to be a lemming. We can kill Roa anytime , we need dead wolves.... we would be better off lynching a non participant. At least we know the score with Roa..why can't you see we have to play the percentages in this game?

[Mithalwen]

Noone has answered why Rikae didn't state her dream straight away.

Sudenly she started to suspect me when I didn't immediately take her word? That, I find odd.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am not giving up yet...

I kind of appreciate. Even though Roa doesn't seem to read what I write I am still of the opinion (stated many times) that Rikae might bluff. But I still think we're better off this way as it looks to me more probable - with possible clearing of things tomorrow & information becoming available toMorrow as well.

Of course is someone would go for Spm I might reconsider... but that would still be a shot in relative greyness (even thoug I myself am somewhat convinced about his guilt at the moment).

[Mithalwen]

I would. I feel you are innocent. Roa is AT WORST a cobler. I could believe SPM guilty for his quibble and hasty vote for Roa...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Noone has answered why Rikae didn't state her dream straight away.

I find that very reasonable indeed - it was wise to see what the known-to-her does first before she knows she's revealed. Very clever I'd say.

EDIT: X'd with Mith and needing a cigarette...

[Roa_Aoife]

I'd go for SPM in a heartbeat if I thought it would do any good. But everyone will likely say, "Oh, she's just being a cobbler trying to save her own skin. She thinks SPM is innocent, or she wouldn't risk it!" And thus nothing would come of it. He's managed to completely ignore the accusations against him and noone has siad a thing about it.

And Manwe, it's not absurd. It's the truth, and others have admitted that it's plausible. Including Nogrod (thank you for correcting me), whom, if you believe Rikae, is a known innocent. You need to learn how to temper your words. It'a a lesson I learned the hard way, and if you fail to realize it, you'll only end up dead in this game.

[Mithalwen]

Well Roa, I am not sure about you but I don't see the point of lynching someone who we know isn't a wolf with ordos dropping like flies. I think Gil has voted like SPM and is unlikely ot return so it is going to be best shot.

++ The Saucepan Man

[the guy who be short]

++BRINNIEL

As the only person on both my and Rikae's suspect list, and for the reasons I have already stated.

We need to kill a wolf. We do not need to kill a cobbler. Simple as.

[Durelin]

Later than I wanted to be, but here and open minded. I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that "wasting a lynch" on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative.

We've spent a lot of the Day discussing Roa and Rikae, so I'm afraid of everyone, when and if we do sort of come to a consensus (which may or may not be a good idea, considering the wolves could lead the way on either side), if we decide not to lynch Roa, our lynch target will be far too random.

The votes [edit]stood when I posted this[/edit] as:

Roa 3, Legate 2, SPM 1.

Enough has been said about Roa.

If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait (*gasp*, I know he's scary). Roa may not know who the wolves are, but for what we have to go on... Ugh, I wish I had more ideas at this point.

Legate is seemingly the easiest option if we deem that Roa is a wasted lynch, which makes me wary. I have no idea about Legate. I think he has been trying to be helpful, and whether or not that is forced I cannot tell right now (yes, yes, I need to read through pretty much everyone's posts again). The fact that Roa balatantly supported him makes him an easy target, which is just the sort of opportunity wolves might jump on, or at least nudge along. I do not rule out voting for him, but I have not seen enough to make me vote for him right now (and there's not much Day left, for that matter).

I agree with TGWBS in looking at those who Roa did not mention, several of whom have been slipping by without notice. Specifically I am concerned with Brinniel and Kath. They've both been quite amiable and helpful seeming when *needed*, per say.

Anyway, I probably just cross-posted with a lot of people...I'll try to keep up in these last minutes (about 20 when I post this).

[Nogrod]

Gil - > Spm
Lommy - > tgwbs
Brinniel - > Legate
Spm - > Roa
Lalaith - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate1, Roa2)
Rune - > Legate (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa2)
Kath - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa3)
Roa - >Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa4)
Mith -> Spm (Spm2, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa4)
tgwbs -> Brinniel (Spm2, tgwbs1, Legate2, Roa4, Brinniel1)

[Mithalwen]

Only 10 votes ..that is pants.. all the wolves could have abstained..or all voted and be horrifically influential.......

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, Mith, I agree with you- the village may think they can asorb the loss of that many innocents with catching any wolves, but I don't. A village with those ratios, baddies comprising a third of the village? Even with great players as villagers, it's not good.


--Roa_Aoife

++SPM

I hope the wolves don't believe me, Rikae, because if I don't die, the village will be spared the confusion of dealing with you another Day.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm tied with SPM now. One vote will make the difference.

[Nogrod]

I'm not sure if I share Mith's urgency here about the numbers. I mean if Roa is a cobbler all this discussion that has been had around her vs. Rikae just proves how great player she is as she has managed to "cobbler" us into this.

I also think that what we need now the most is some clarity.

That doen't say I don't still think Spm isn't a Faithful. On the contrary. But I would curse myself long and hard if I now went on to machinate his lynch and be shown wrong and we had killed an innocent leaving this muddle to be reworked toMorrow.

EDIT: X'd with Roa X 2

[Durelin]

Everyone's right about people "dropping like flies," and I really don't want us to end up stuck with a Cobbler and x number of wolves, with the few innocents left carried along with the tide.

(Cobblers are nasty to keep around, nasssty! Especially when all their wolves are dead and there's a werebear left, because then they have nothing to lose, and you don't know if they'll side with the bear or not, hehe... )

++Roa

Obviously, my vote is retractable if anyone has a better suggestion in mind/can convince me otherwise.

Edit: Crossed with Mith's post after Nogrod's and on down...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I get my first two votes in WW. Surely a moment to remember

However,

Originally Posted by Rune son of Bjarne

Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

However, not having a strong case is actually what Brinniel accuses me of. Well, that's just the problem - I don't have any particular suspect yet, yesterday it was Mänwe at first, today, I am in the middle of a mixture. I know whom I don't suspice, which is as much important to me as to know whom I would suspice. This far, I am more like following my best sense and reason to vote the one less unsuspicious (I hope you get it), someone who I am sure would do no harm lynching (this was why I asked if it is in our intentions to lynch Roa, by the way).

I was hoping I'll return home earlier and have yet time to send some more thoughts, but having to read (again) through all the previous page and Rune's vote popping at me in the end, well, you know what.

I'll post my vote yet, trying to find something helpful, if some stroke of brilliance strikes me! Otherwise I'd probably go for Roa.

Edit: Cross-posted with about ten people...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Alright, Mith, I agree with you- .

If the situation weren't so dire I'd suggest champagne to mark this historic event

But I fear it will have been a futile act in the end ..and they will lynch you today and me tomorrow for trying to keep you from the gallows, and then the village will be truly stuffed...

[Roa_Aoife]

10 mintues, people. Don't do this to yourselves! You can't survive these odds.

[Mänwe]

Well I will stick to what I have said;

++ Roa_Aoife

[Rikae]

To finish it off:


Brinniel – Her initial defense of the highly suspected Manwe would seem like an odd move for a wolf, especially a new one, who would be happy to sit back and watch an innocent lynched. Of course, that's assuming Manwe is innocent! If they were wolves together, though, I'd think she'd bury the defense amid comments about other people...
the guy who be short- Has spoken nothing but good sense and been, or appeared, very helpful. That in itself is suspicious, though; his posts seem, well, carefully thought out – and who has more reason for caution than a faithful?
Hookbill the Goomba – Seems slippery and uninvolved. Not sure if it's his style or what...
Legate of Amon Lanc- I don't like his “useless villager” comment, but at the same time it seems like something only a very bold or careless wolf would say...although he could be just that. I don't particularly suspect him though.
Thinlómien – Her post 42 “probably between two innocents” comments on Mith and Lalaith, noncommital remarks on Nogrod & SPM, and a whole paragraph explaining why Glirdan's suspiciousness wasn't suspicious raise my suspicion; she openly admits she had little case against me; she seems eager to toss suspicion around hoping it will stick somewhere, and could be seen as defending Mith, who I find suspicious also; then claims to have “hardly any suspicions”, although she has, in some way, pointed to several people as suspects.



Manwe: I'm sorry – that was Legate I meant.

Once again, I beg you - leave Roa alone for now. Lynching her will destroy the benefit knowledge brings you. Her vote is meaningless in such a big village, and tomorrow her cobblerishness will be proven.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, no time to think. The best is to go for sureness. I believe Rikae.

++Roa_Aoife

[Roa_Aoife]

Yeah, good bye, Mith. This village has hung themselves.

And I just remembered, Glirdan is dying too now, because of his failure to vote twice, and he only has one post. Mac, don't back out on your own rules now.

[the guy who be short]

Does anybody else find it really suspicious how Roa really wanted to die, and now, suddenly, doesn't? She is an incredible cobbler, but I can't believe anybody could even consider her not being the cobbler. It doesn't make sense. She is here to confuse you. You should be ignoring her, not voting for her.

[Rikae]

Sorry - the conclusions for the last post are:

Suspicious:
Thinlomien
Moderately Suspicious:
Hookbill
TGWBS
Legate
Not very suspicious:
Brinniel

[Durelin]

Oh great, now I'll have "the difference" resting on my shoulders.

I agree with you, Nogrod, about clarity. Personally, I need it right now, and I don't want to wait on the Faithfuls to bring it to us.

Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark? (I'm short of time and so not reading very carefully, so I may be off...)

[Roa_Aoife]

I was happy to die until I realized what the odds are going to be agianst the village now. Of course, those odds may suit you perfectly, TGWBS.

[Rikae]

Legate, if you really believe me, you should leave Roa alive, as a known innocent of sorts! You can kill her later...

Here's my vote:

++Mithalwen

And goodbye, good luck to you! Again, I'm sorry I couldn't have been more use! Off I go - into the Supernal Oneness of the - oh, heck, the Infernal Twoness...wherever I'm going.
Write me a nice gruesome death, O Modalaure!