Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Mithalwen]

I am half way through a read through of the entire thread. I find it a bit quiet here considering how late in the day it is... at the moment I have found no reason to persuade me from voting for one of my previous choices. I think it quite possible that Spm and Lalaith are faithful. But I still have a few pages to go.... Brinniel and Durelin are "inclined to suspect".

On the inclined to trust list I have TGWBS and Lommy so far .......

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have spent much time going back over everything that has happened. My thoughts on each villager (except Nogrod, obviously) are below. Note that this is not a blow-by-blow account, but only picks up on things I thought worth noting and includes my own thoughts on them (where I have any ).

Since I was going through, I have summarised what Roa and Rikae said about everyone, for what it’s worth.

Brinniel
Day 1 - Opening post emphasis her “newbie” status, but says little. Subsequently gets into the nonsense exchange with Hookbill which was based on nought but banter. Votes Rikae.

Day 2 - Becoming suspicious of Hookbill, because of his continued references to poor judgment and having little clue. I find Hookbill’s behaviour in this regard strange too, and it leads me to think slightly better of Brinniel. Votes Legate.

Roa expresses mild suspicion, but neutral overall.

Rikae didn’t think her very suspicious.

Durelin
Day 1 - Opening post takes a long time to say little, other than to stir comment on some evolving issues. Jumps on Rune’s suspicions of Manwe and votes for him. Later says she is unsure about Manwe, but nevertheless sticks with her vote until after Rikae declares. And the switch to Garin is very quick upon the tails of Rikae’s revelation. Jokey style is typical for her, although she is coming across as somewhat overly cheery at times. I have never experienced her as a Wolf, but she has been a cunning Cobbler in the past.

Day 2 - Early suspicion of Manwe, based on his criticism of Roa’s analyses. Otherwise, says a lot without saying much. Seems to embrace Roa’s analyses alarmingly enthusiastically (although Roa was an unknown quantity, and this is one of Roa‘s strengths). Later, after Roa is revealed, she looks to see if there might be any leads in Roa’s analyses, which I was in favour of doing. Feels Hookbill, Lommy and Brinniel to be a bit forced. Ponders voting for Legate on the basis of Roa’s analysis of him, but votes for Roa on the basis that having a known Cobbler around can be nasssty.

Roa expresses some suspicion of her.

Rikae thought she felt innocent.

Gil-Galad
…! I have already said about as much as there is about him.

Roa more or less neutral. What else could she be?

Rikae thought him an unknown quantity. Ditto.

the guy who be short
Day 1 - Opening post gets right down to the business of airing suspicions, putting pressure on the quiet, which I rather like. Makes an early list of suspicions which, again, I quite like. Isn’t afraid to say where he stands, so I find it difficult to understand why some are saying that he seems careful. However, I have noted the “easy” Day 1 vote for Garin.

Day 2 - Following Rikae’s revelation of her dreams, recommends taking good notice of the thoughts of the two known innocents. As I have said, I find this an entirely reasonable proposition. Looks at Lalaith, Mith and Brinniel, finding only the latter suspicious (and later votes for her). While I was (and still am) all for taking account of Roa’s analyses, his “meta-analysis” approach looks far too simplistic. When challenged on it (by Mith), he concedes that the Faithful are more likely to be among those that Roa did not focus on too much. Not sure what to make of this, as I somewhat agree with the conclusion that he came to, but the original analysis rings slight alarm bells. Urges the village not to lynch Roa, which I have already commented on.

Roa expressed some suspicion.

Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, for being careful and appearing to be helpful.

Hookbill the Goomba
Day 1 - Opening post says nothing. Following posts are largely jokey and insubstantial, save for a slight dig at Manwe for possibly thinking me the Seer and revealing it. Seems to say that he has no idea and claims poor judgment a lot. Ummed and ahhed over Manwe before voting for him.

Day 2 - Still saying that he has nothing much to go on and claiming not to be very good at the game. Like some others, I am slightly wary of this, but I am inclined to give him a chance to get more involved. Did not vote, but has explained that.

Roa was (very) mildly suspicious of him.

Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, for seeming slippery and uninvolved.

Kath
Day 1 - Opening post says little, except how the numbers favour us. Next, merely a commentary, other than to say Manwe and Hookbill didn’t look suspicious, but that Legate was worryingly calm. Did not vote but, again, this has been explained.

Day 2 - Focussed mainly on the Roa/Rikae issue, thinking through various scenarios, and ended up voting for Roa.

Roa expresses mild suspicion.

Rikae seems to have thought her more likely innocent than guilty.

Kitanna
Day 1 - Opening post says little other than to defend Glirdan. Then gets on to Manwe’s case, for the bold accusation. Later withdraws from that and says little, other than raising mild suspicions, and goes for the “easy” Garin vote.

Day 2 - Spent a lot of time grappling with the Roa/Rikae issue, rather than looking at others. A lot of people were doing this - it was Roa’s intention that we did so - so I’m not setting much store by it. Did not vote, but it looks, from what she says, like she would probably have voted for Roa.

Roa expressed suspicion.

Rikae thought her suspicious for being safe and seemingly flying under the radar.

Lalaith
Day 1 - The point she raised about Mith’s opening post, with which I rather agreed, has been discussed at length. Also expressed confusion over the roles in her first post, which could have been deliberate, particularly as she is a seasoned player. Next post is her strange, and seemingly very safe vote for Holby, upon which I have already commented.

Day 2 - Proposed looking at the Garin “bandwaggon“. Fair enough since, while Garin presented himself an easy target, I suspect that at least one Faithful jumped at it. Then again, all the votes were worth looking at, not just those for Garin. Some confusion over whether Rikae was protected and whether the Faithful went for her. Otherwise, does little more than assess the Rikae/Roa situation and vote for Roa.

Roa called her “very odd” and said she thought she merited further scrutiny.

Rikae thought her sincere.

Legate of Amon Lanc
Day 1 - Opening post wordy, as are most of his posts, but that seems to be his style. Described Manwe as “harsh” and said that, while it didn’t prove him a Faithful, if he was not, he was making a mess by making accusations out of nowhere. I think that Legate was over-reacting, because accusations out of nowhere are quite standard for Day 1, but I also think he was still finding his feet (which could go either way). Took the exchange between Brinniel and Hookbill a little seriously, but I don’t find his attempt to mediate particularly suspicious. Still slightly curious as to why he voted for Manwe rather than Garin following Rikae’s revelation.

Day 2 - His first post of the Day does seem to find it difficult to see people as suspicious, which was the point that Brinniel made that I misread. His later contributions are after Rikae’s dream reveal, and he votes for Roa. For all his words, he doesn’t really seem to say much, so I’m slightly more uncomfortable about now him than I was.

I’m also slightly disconcerted by the admiration which Roa expresses for him. Not sure what it means, but I doubt that she would have so obviously embraced one she thought to be a Faithful.

Rikae thought him moderately suspicious, but ended up switching her vote from Mith to vote for him. I have no idea what to make of that. Although it seems to have been aimed at preventing Roa being lynched, it was rather late in the Day.

Mänwe
Day 1 - Early “fisherman” banter - confusing style - but I agree with much of what he says. Aggressive early attack on Nogrod and Roa particularly, and also Kitanna and me. Looks to me to be a tactic to provoke reaction.

Continues to cross swords with Roa on Day 2, though without giving much away concerning his own thoughts. Indeed, he seems rather to encourage the confusion over Roa’s continuing participation more than anything else.

Roa attacked him, although not as much as she did me, and declared him either the Cobbler or a Faithful. I think it most likely she thought him innocent.

Rikae described him as disturbing, but seeming a bit like an “innocent Morm”.

Mithalwen
Day 1 - That comment in her opening post has been discussed enough. Other than that, said little during Day 1 other than to express a few mild suspicions, mainly for Lalaith, engage in a bit of to’ing and fro’ing in the hullaballoo following Rikae’s declaration and then vote for her. The vote for Lalaith, when Rikae was still possibly in danger, was odd, but Rikae was unlikely to receive any more votes by then (other than from a suicidal Faithful), I suppose.

Day 2 - Spends most of her time urging that we not lynch Roa, and suggesting me as an alternative. I have already commented on that.

Roa expressed mild suspicion.

Rikae thought her to be a Faithful.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Day 1 - Opening post says that little jumps to his attention! On the contrary, I think it was possibly the most eventful opening to Day 1 ever. Kicks off the case against Manwe. Then says he is confused and adds little, other than expressing mild suspicion of Holby and saying he thought Hookbill innocent. Main suspects were Manwe, Legate and Brinniel but took the easy option offered up unwittingly by Garin.

Day 2 - Continuing suspicion of Legate and Brinniel. I’ve commented on his vote for Legate, despite feeling better about him and despite thinking Roa was most likely lying, above.

Roa expressed some suspicion, and he capitulated to her analysis. I remember thinking that odd when I read it.

Rikae wasn’t sure on him.

Thinlómien
Day 1 - Opening post immediately jumps to Lalaith’s defence, even though Lalaith was not really under much suspicion. Hmmm … Commentary on some of the events, but nothing firm (other than possibly stirring the pot against Noggie). Later concern about Rikae and Durelin being too eager to accuse Manwe. Votes Rikae.

Day 2 opening post doesn’t say much, but expresses “vague” suspicion of Durelin, Brinniel and Kitanna. Also keeping an eye on Nogrod and I. Late elaborates on her concerns over Nogrod by reference to his mistaken assumption that the Ranger had protected, and saved, someone other than Rikae. This looks strange to me, as I see nothing sinister in Nogrod’s mistake. It was a strange point to pick up on. Agrees with Brinniel about Hookbill acting strangely, says she thinks his comments about confusion seem sincere, but notes he could be using that. Long post looking at the Day 1 posts doesn’t really add much, but she takes the opportunity to defend Lalaith’s vote (hmmm … again). Attacks TGWBS’s suggestion that we take good notice of the two known innocents and bases her vote on this - I have already noted that I find this this vote suspicious.

Roa was neutral about her.

Rikae thought her to be giving of a “faithful-ish vibe” and was suspicious of her, mainly for seemingly being eager to toss suspicion around.

Further thoughts coming up …

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

1) I fail to see the logic here. Glirdan was doomed to die, yes. But the village lynches' purpose is to make the wolves extinct, right? Lynching an innocent doomed to die surely does not help to achieve that. I agree with you that lynching Roa yesterday was not the best cause, but, like TGWBS, I think the lynch should have been used to try to eliminate a wolf.

Lommie dear you have gone right off my trust list.... I didn't know he was innocent until Mac posted it THIS morning. If you knew he was innocent last night it can only be because you are a faithful? However lynching an unknown who will be dead anyway keeps the numbers up - something too few of us seem to be concerned with.... and there was a chance he was a wolf/faithful

[Durelin]

Mith - Any reasons behind your inclinations, or just feelings? I'd like to know what you think about Brinniel, at least.

Lalaith - I'm sorry you're sad. That was nice and convenient, though, how you slipped in the little note that you normally tend to suspect me, so just in case you're wrong, it's nothing new, right?

My current top suspects are Rune and Lalaith. Rune I've already expressed my opinion on, and I think Brinniel brings up good points about him as well, so I feel a little better about her, but I definitely am not putting her off my list entirely. About Lalaith - She's been nice and cautious, and makes it seem like she expresses her own opinions, though her opinions are nicely placed after someone else has already expressed similar ones, as if she's helping guilt along. Perhaps she's really trying to help the village, but I feel like only a wolf really needs to be subtle when they are trying to look like they're doing that.

Question for you, Lal, out of curiosity - What do you mean by "willful confusion?" That has me...well, confused.

I'm tired after a week of school, so yes I'm probably a little belligerent...apologies...

Edit: Crossed with Sauce and Mith

[Nogrod]

BLaah.

Just running out of time (my analysis work is too slow).

So I thought of a shortcut of collating a few statistics as Lommy needs to get to the computer.

Originally Posted by myself

And basically I must agree with him (SPM). Before that there had been eight people posting (of 21). Of those eight one is me (innocent) and three are dead (Garin, Glirdan and Roa). That leaves four people: Mith, Lalaith, Kath and Mänwe. So we've gotten a free harvest here that has left only four candidates.

So from the initial probability the fate has helped us a bit and I decided to make some add on's

The first posters:
Mith, Lalaith, Kath, Mänwe, Saucepan

Suspicious voting D1:
Lalaith (Holby-vote + the odd retraction)
Easy vote: Sauce, tgwbs, Rune, Kitanna

Roa voters (easy voters) D2:
Early voters: Spm, Lalaith, Kath
late voters: Mänwe, Legate

In all three categories:
Lalaith
SPaM

Two appearances:
Kath
Mänwe

Somehow I'm not surprised of either of the ones found in all three places...

I might go for Lalaith, but am open to any better suggestions. As Lommy needs to PC now I just refer that others than myself have made good remarks surpassing just confusion and weirdness with her.

What do you think?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Mith - Any reasons behind your inclinations, or just feelings? I'd like to know what you think about Brinniel, at least.

Well Brinniel seems to fit the profile fo a Flying Under the Radar-Wolf. Present, unremarkable on the surface, using novice status as a shield - not that she is alone. Hard to be specific but that kind of behavious makes me uneasy.... too uncontroversial.


As for Lalaith. She has seemed wrong since the beginning. Now normally we read each other well. This game I suspect her and she suspects me. I know I'm innocent....

[Lalaith]

Ok. I know you're innocent Nogrod so what I'm about to say clearly doesn't go for you.

But it's now my opinon that one of the things Tar-Roa-Cobbler was doing was setting up some patsies. She didn't know who the wolves were, but she set up a few, for the wolves, whoever they were, to use as they saw fit.
One of those patsies was me.
So, given that I'm high on the suspect list today, here's a message to my fellow innocents, for you to ponder when I am dead and found innocent.
If I get lynched, look at those who jumped on my case.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Easy vote: Sauce, tgwbs, Rune, Kitanna

While I agree with you about the votes of TGWBS, Rune and Kitanna, please explain how on earth you conclude that my vote for Rikae was an "easy vote"?

[the guy who be short]

+ Lalaith expressed faith in Rikae.

- Mithalwen expressed some doubt about Rikae possibly not being the seer, post 232.

- Kath, post 241, also starts expressing doubts about Rikae.

- Kitanna, post 245, doubts Rikae.

- Looking back, Manwe seemed most insistent about believing Roa. As well as his very suspicious first post on it, he posts again at 227 and post 235, each time dedicating his post to the possibility of Rikae lying and coping with it.



In conclusion about those doubting Rikae, I find Manwe most suspicious of all these. His first post made it seem like doubt of Rikae was widespread, and thenceforth he has been most vocal in doubting her. I feel he is probably faithful and may switch my vote to him.

Kath switching from believing Rikae in post 213 to doubting her in 241 troubles me - as if she switched, seeing that the idea were taking root, to further propagate it.

What to make of Rune, Brinniel, Kitanna and Mith I'm not sure.


I feel that this is very important. The thread yesterday seemed to be going forward fine, with analyses and suchlike, until people started believing Roa's story. That messed up the thread and wasted a Day where we could have killed a Faithful.


Mith - I appreciate the trust, but I must say you confuse me completely. I have gone from strongly suspecting you to strongly believing in your innocence and back again. You feel innocent to me - you act as though you have the village's interests at heart.

I don't agree with your retrospective "lynch-Glirdan" idea, because, while he may have been a wolf, it would have been even better to lynch another (non-Roa) person and so kill a(nother, if Glirdan had turned out to be Faithful) potential Faithful.


Mith also makes an excellent point about Lommy. How did she know Glirdan was innocent? I almost voted Manwe, but I may reserve my switch for Lommy unless she explains what she was thinking when she posted that.

[Thinlómien]

Mith - I'm silly and I don't think you'll buy any explanation I give, but I think I didn't think that through. Of course Glirdy could have been a wolf. But I just wasn't very awake while writing that. (Might be because I did not bother myself about Glirdy since I was assuming he'd be killed by modfire anyway. )

EDIT: xed

Originally Posted by TGWBS

unless she explains what she was thinking when she posted that.

I guess I was not thinking at all.

[Mithalwen]

And we have scarcely half an hour and votes seem thin on the ground..... Only Brinniel for Rune and TGWBS for Brinniel ..or have I missed any?

[Lalaith]

Lalaith - I'm sorry you're sad. That was nice and convenient, though, how you slipped in the little note that you normally tend to suspect me, so just in case you're wrong, it's nothing new, right?

No, that's not what I meant at all. I meant quite the opposite - that there are people whose playing styles I'm inclined to find suspicious. I've been trying hard to be aware of this when judging people and using it as a kind of 'positive handicap'.

[the guy who be short]

Lommy - I certainly wont buy that; it seems a very dodgy mistake to make.

But I am more worried about Manwe than Lommy, ultimately.

--BRINNIEL
++MANWE

[Lalaith]

I'm probably not doing Lommy any favours here by defending her but I buy the mistake - it's one I also made when I was reading through the thread, I forgot that we didn't know Glirdan was an innocent.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Mith - I'm silly and I don't think you'll buy any explanation I give, but I think I didn't think that through. Of course Glirdy could have been a wolf. But I just wasn't very awake while writing that. (Might be because I did not bother myself about Glirdy since I was assuming he'd be killed by modfire anyway. )

EDIT: xed I guess I was not thinking at all.

Actually I am inclined ot give you the benefit ofthe doubt because you seemed reasonable the rest of the time.....

TGWBS as for lynch Glirdan ..I am not saying it was ideal option but ideal option in the circumstances. Due to Roa's monopolising of the debate time, there was not a great deal of consensus on other suspects. I stand by my suspicion of Lalaith and SpM but my opinions were far from universal. I just felt I would have had better chance of preserving Roa as a "bum on seat" non-faithful for the purposes of winning, if I suggested lynching someone who was cactus anyway. Surely that makes sense?

[Kath]

I'm having trouble pegging anyone in this village toDay. Usually by now there's someone I'm convinced is a wolf. Ah well, let's try the old method of a quick look at each person and see what's actually going on in my head.

Brinniel - Another newbie, which causes me difficulties. She is playing on her newbie status as much as Hookbill and Legate, but she has made (I think) fewer posts and she is rather inconsistent. Day 1 she started off looking at Manwe and made a sudden switch to Rikae, and she's been backwards and forwards over Hookbill from the beginning. She actually looks quite suspicious, and if she is a wolf I wonder whether Hookbill is one too. After all she mentions him daily but always seems to find someone slightly more suspicious to vote for.

Durelin - She seems to be playing differently to usual. More talk, more actual involvement in the game. This seems suspicious to me simply because as a wolf people are often more inclined to post, to keep up with what's going on so they can influence it. Her suspicion of Mith also makes me suspicious of her as I mentioned earlier.

Gil - I would say innocent. That comment about the wolves having killed Glirdan when it was clearly stated in the narration that he'd 'committed suicide', I can't believe a wolvish Gil would say it.

TGWBS - I'm barely going to comment. Right now I find him unbelievably suspicious but I strongly suspect that that is due to a large difference in playing style and old history. So I'm going to ignore him until I can look at him with fresh eyes.

Hookbill - There is a definite newbie quality to his posts. The one where he was surprised that people seemed to be randomly suspecting him certainly supports that. He does repeat that he is a bad judge of character an awful lot of times, but his frivolity and his consistency over being suspicious of Manwe speaks in his favour to me. He has also recently stopped mentioning his bad character judgement and started making some informed points about people. I am inclined to think him innocent.

Kitanna - I don't feel to have seen enough from her to really form an opinion (hey! now I know how you guys feel about me ), but her preoccupation with things being 'logical' speaks to me of innocence. The only thing that's throwing me slightly is that she had such a good reason for her vote on Day 1. Garin did make himself look extremely suspicious on Day 1, and it would be an easy thing for a wolf to pick up on and use to their advantage. For now though I think she's innocent.

Lalaith - Has posted far more than I thought she had. One thing that is good about her to me was her realisation on Day 1 that she was wrong to ask Rikae to reveal who she'd dreamt of. But then she is the first (I think) to suggest that it's odd that the wolves would have tried to kill Rikae knowing the Ranger could be protecting her, although she does change her mind on this later, deciding that in fact it is the most likely scenario. I really can't work out what I feel about her.

Legate - I didn't like his mediating on Day 1, and he has subsequently stopped that, but if you read his posts he also constantly mentions the fact that he's new at this and is learning the ropes. This was picked up in Hookbill but not so much for Legate, and I wonder at the inconsistency. However, I think there was genuine unsureness from him about the exact role of the Cobbler. Now, that doesn't mean he isn't a wolf but there's just something about his posts that catches me as being ... wrong somehow. I can't explain this one, but I do find him suspicious.

Manwe - Odd. Day 1 he was very vocal, but has sinced calmed down a lot. I wonder whether this was excitement over being a wolf, and then during the Night his fellows told him to tone it down a bit. And there's this:

Well here I am three, being rather new to the entire experience, my life on this here Island had always been a quiet one

Emphasis mine, but what's with the three? I thought maybe a typo for 'there' but that doesn't make any sense either. Three fellows? Definitely someone to keep an eye on.

Mith - As I said earlier I think she's innocent. Her immediate belief in Rikae and subsequent support of her is to her credit. There was some comment over her wanting to have lynched Glirdan yesterDay, but it does actually make sense. I think she underestimated the effect Roa could have had on the village were she left alive, but I don't think she had any wolvish intent in trying to stop her being lynched.

Nogrod - We know is innocent.

Rune - I am becoming more suspicious of the more of his posts I read through. Day 1 he said he would not play safe, because he didn't think a risk factor should be a deciding variable, but he then proceeds to vote Garin, which at the time was a pretty safe bet. If he had gone with Legate as indeed he said he probably would that would almost have been a less safe bet and more attention would have been drawn to him because of it. He also then said leaving Roa alive for another Day would be the safest bet, something I strongly disagree with, and he didn't seem to have any reason for it either. Then he lessens the suspicion he had on Legate before proceeding to vote for him. Finally his growing suspicion of Lommy is odd. There seems to be very little reasoning behind it bar some kind of reaction to the fact that she suspected him. Basically, I think he's very suspicious.

Sauce - Constant arguing and long posts is the norm for him, as is keeping an eye on the votes. To me he feels to be behaving normally, though of course he behaves 'normally' as a wolf as well. At the moment I think he's innocent, and that he and Nogrod simply have very opposite viewpoints.

Lommy - (you wouldn't believe how long it just took me to find your posts, I was searching the members list for Lommy for a good 5 minutes before I realised what I was doing ). Anyway, well, I asked for flood-posting and I certainly got it! To me Lommy has been making sense. There are some things I disagree with her over (Mith's Glirdan theory not making sense for one) but for the most part I think she's posting clearly and sensibly. For now I'm going to consider her innocent. I've just noticed Mith saying what Lommy said about Glirdan looks suspicious ... I think she's talking in retrospect Mith.

So, finally, this is what I've come up with:

Suspicious (not in order):
Brinniel
Durelin
Legate
Manwe
Rune

Innocent:
Gil
Hookbill
Kitanna
Mith
Nogrod
Sauce
Lommy

No idea yet:
Lalaith
TGWBS

Of those I am suspicious of the one that I most strongly suspect is Rune, and as it is now only half an hour from the deadline I will vote.

++RUNE

[Thinlómien]

There's so many people I could vote and I can't decide... Mänwe, Rune and Brinniel have been already voted. Of those I could vote either Rune or Brinn... But I could vote TGWBS or Kitanna or Durelin as well...

[Kath]

Ew that got horrifically long, my apologies.

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, my review of the two Days' discussion hasn't changed my thoughts that much. However, I do feel slightly easier about Brinniel and slightly more concerned about Hookbill and Legate. So, new list:

Suspicious
Lalaith
Durelin
Rune
Lommy

Somewhat suspicious
Brinniel
TGWBS
Kitanna
Hookbill
Legate

No idea
Kath
Gil-Galad

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe

Innocent
Nogrod

Unless something radical happens in the next 30 mins or so, I will be voting for one of those on my "top 4". My inclination was to vote for Rune, largely because his voting looks suspicious and there were a number of things that concerned me about him when I went through the thread.

However, I am now wondering over the point that Mith raised about Lommy. It's just the sort of slip a Wolf/Faithful might make. And I was already regarding her as decidedly suspicious.

[Mithalwen]

And to explain my uncertainty of Rikae - all acan say is " a bon chat, bon rat", Rikae and Roa are possibly the boldest players I have encountered. You have to consider the options..... and given the events of Noggie's game....

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mith

I just felt I would have had better chance of preserving Roa as a "bum on seat" non-faithful for the purposes of winning, if I suggested lynching someone who was cactus anyway. Surely that makes sense?

No, but the cactus reference is very funny.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I find it interesting how Durelin is highlighting Brinniel's rather plain arguments against me. Arguments where only 1 seems to have true merit, that being that stating that I am confused could be a wolwen tactics. But, Durelin should know that it is not uncommon for me to state these things at all.

I am still inclined to think her innocent, but it is a known wolven tactic to put focus on the arugments of another person. . .

If this post seems a bit oddly constructed it is because I accendentaly deleted it and this is a reconstruction.

I really have to go now. . .

I'll vote for Brinniel, she has been quiet, but it is actually the content of her posts that put me off, she seems to react on pretty innocent things, her cases that are not based on gutt and so on seems fabricated or at the least weird. I never liked her "fun" reaction to hookbill and I really thought her case against me was odd.

You see we Danes only capitulate to analysis and troops when we realise that we cannot win the fight, it could be because of rethorical skill(and or them being right)/superior military but when these things are not pressent we tend to stand on our own feet.

++Brinniel

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

. I've just noticed Mith saying what Lommy said about Glirdan looks suspicious ... I think she's talking in retrospect Mith.

But we couldn't vote in retrospect ..however I am inclined to believe it was just a slip .....

[Nogrod]

Please anyone if you have time, make a vote count!

We're too hectic here sharing one computer with Lommy...

[The Saucepan Man]

++THINLOMIEN

I'm not buying it. And she looked very suspicious to me even before that.

[the guy who be short]

Now that I've voted, I'll post (briefly) what I think about every villager (ex. Nogrod and myself, for obvious reasons).

Brinniel
The scarceness of her posts, and the lack of content, worries me. We shouldn't let her fly under the radar.

Durelin
No idea.

Gil-Galad
Can't really know. Don't want to let him fly under the radar.

Hookbill the Goomba
No idea.

Kath
Slightly suspicious for her switch on Roa.

Kitanna
No idea.

Lalaith
No idea.

Legate of Amon Lanc
No idea.

Mänwe
Faithful.

Mithalwen
Feels innocent.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Slightly suspicious for being willing to believe Roa.

The Saucepan Man
Feels innocent.

Thinlómien
Slightly suspicious. Don't like her bit about glirdan, but the rest seems innocent (though not reasonable, which can be two entirely different things!).


What I notice here is the huge amount of no-ideas. Durelin, Hookbill, Kitanna, Lalaith, Legate. That's far too many people I haven't paid enough attention to.

[Mithalwen]

++Lalaith

Don't want to leave it too late...

[The Saucepan Man]

Brinniel: ++Rune (Rune 1)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (Rune 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna: ++Hookbill (Rune 1, Brinniel 1, Hookbill 1)
TGWBS: --Brinniel, ++Manwe (Rune 1, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Kath: ++Rune (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Rune: ++Brinniel (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1)
SpM: ++Lommy (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)

[Durelin]

Lalaith There's just one problem with your induction, Lalaith - Roa expressed suspicion of just about everyone. And I don't think anyone who's gone after you is using Roa's arguments against you. Besides, you're just as high on the suspect list as a number of people at this point (who have votes to back that suspicion up, too), so don't sweat it so much.

Manwe hasn't posted at all toDay...Hookbill and Gil have posted once. I hope forgetting about them for now isn't something we're going to really really regret...

I really don't understand the major concern over Lommy's mistake, either...

++Rune

He was my original suspect for toDay, and I swear I've seen this kind of Rune before.

Now Kath is unhappy with my helpfulness. I stand by my original declaration.

[Kath]

Slightly suspicious for her switch on Roa.

Hang on ... what switch on Roa?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

this is so typical. . .if you go un-noticed for a few days and someone realises this then everybody jumps on you and agree that you are a wolf. I remember when that happened to Eomer not long ago, I felt kind of guilty because it was me that mentioned that he had been ignored.

anyways you are being very silly!

[Nogrod]

I had this weird theory of Kath and Lommy protecting Mänwe yesterDay. I think it might be true, but then again it's putting all the eggs in the same basket and thence a bit too risky as everyone's guilt kind of hangs on the others being guilty as well...

I also suspect that either tgwbs is a wolf or then our logics just don't meet... And see the involvement! When you have reason, you tend to be able to force some time to play unlike when you have no heightened interest.

Also Durelin's slightly changed playing style worries me a bit.

I'm very bad with Rune, I almost always suspect him and mainly he turns out innocent.

Hope that is of any help. Turn for Lommy...

[Lalaith]

I don't think Rune is a wolf. None of my front-running suspects look like lynch prospects. So the way the voting is going, I will go for either Brinniel or Manwe, who are the most suspicious to me of the current prospects.

[Thinlómien]

Rune indeed seems a last minute lynch and they usually go wrong...

[the guy who be short]

Kath - from my post 369:

Kath switching from believing Rikae in post 213 to doubting her in 241 troubles me - as if she switched, seeing that the idea were taking root, to further propagate it.

At first you didn't seriously consider that Roa could be telling the truth. Then you did.

Mith - I still don't get the Glirdan thing, but I suppose it's just difference of opinion. In any case, it's retrospective and doesn't matter.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also Durelin's slightly changed playing style worries me a bit.

In all seriousness...how has it changed? I think you guys just missed all my crazy trying-to-helpness in those two games in a row I was the bloody Seer. Actually I'm kind of glad I'm getting noticed finally.

Okay, that may be a waste of time question to answer, particularly when there are only about 9 minutes left, but I want it answered some time...even after the game is over, if need be.

Edit: Cross-posted with last three posts

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Main Suspects:
Brinniel
Legate
Durelin (I moved her up after Nogrod mentioned the change of style)

Lesser Suspects:
Lommy
SPM

But remember I am awful at spotting wolves. . .however I have chosen from a bit different critiria this time.

[Mithalwen]

I don't see why Rune is so suspicious.... Brinniel and Durelin seem more so.... may have to change my vote since noone agrees with me... :S rather help someone I suspect a bit lynched than let someone I don't suspect at all face the chop...

[Kath]

At first you didn't seriously consider that Roa could be telling the truth. Then you did.

I considered it was possible for as long as I wasn't sure whether the Seer could know the Cobbler's role from a dream. As soon as Mac posted that this was in fact the case I believed Rikae to be the Seer and Roa the Cobbler.

[Lalaith]

Ok, time to vote.
++BRINNIEL

I don't much like the choices we've got but like I said before, it's a toss-up for me between her and Manwe, and I don't think Rune's guilty.