T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Something caught my eye in one of Lommy's posts, Could Lommy have dreamed of Izzy? On the other hand, she may be Lommy's packmate. Or I'm reading too much into this statement.

Lommy was a Seer!wolf, not the village Seer. I'm not sure why you think it's possible she may have dreamed of Izzy based on that quote. Why would Lommywolf say something positive about someone she had dreamed? She would only want to lynch or Night-kill them.

[Kitanna]

I..er...wow. That's...wow. Such the bloodbath last night.

Why would Lommywolf say something positive about someone she had dreamed? She would only want to lynch or Night-kill them.

If you look at the rest of that list Izzy is the only one she had felt good about. And she admits she has no real reason. It's a stretch that Lommy dreamt Izzy and revealed it in her first post, but maybe it's something to take into account. There is definitely something strange with Lommy's reasons for Izzy in that first post.

But in her third post she has this to say:

Nerwen seems genuinely innocent, which doesn't point at anything. Nogrod looks quite good too even though poor him is busy. I'm also quite liking Zil and Kit's recent posts. The problem is, it's very unlikely they're all good and innocent. Falling back to my old "oh no, I don't suspect anyone" habit, I guess... Not nice.

Lommy seems to give no reasons for trusting any of these people. In fact she's all over the place. I do believe she probably listed her dream, but by post three she's listed five people who she is inclined to believe are innocent and she only had one dream. I doubt she dreamt of Nogrod or she'd have tried very hard to have him lynched. Perhaps Nerwen was her dream? That would explain why at least Lommy's pack went after her in the night. However, by Lommy's post she's moved Nerwen to the enigma category. Me thinks my tired brain is looking for a hint in Lommy's posts that simply isn't there.

I will return after some sleep to make sense of Lommy's posts and my thoughts on them.

[The Elf-warrior]

Another correction. A wolf!seer only learns the gift of an innocent dreamee. At least that's how the modesses edited first admin post reads.

Originally Posted by Modess

The Seer!wolves receive one dream every Night. If the Seer!wolf dreams of a rival wolf, they are only told that the player is a wolf, not their gift. If the Seer!wolf dreams of a gifted, they are told what the gift is.

However, in a later post she says

Originally Posted by Modess

Simulation has been run. A solution has been found. However, I have not been able to contact Hakon to tell him, so please hang on until I can get confirmation.

The Seer!wolves can't see gifteds.

However, I think this later post has less weight.

Inzil, yes, I know she was a wolf!seer. I thought she may have been laying the groundwork for a possible fake seer reveal in future. A fake seer has to be accurate to believed, right?

Kitanna, I think Lommy might have dreamed of Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Lommy's first post

Nerwen - LYNCH HER! Erm... *cough*

Could Lommy have learned that Nerwen was the hunter? Not a certainty by any means, (after all, Nerwen expected such a reaction from Lommy anyway) but I think its a possibility.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

However, I think this later post has less weight.

Elfie dear, never take what I say when I'm arguing with Hakon seriously. Listen to the Admin thread, minions, Seer!wolves can see gifteds...

[satansaloser2005]

I just lost the game.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I just lost the game.

Yes...yes you did.

So did I, btw. Grr.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So did I, btw. Grr.

Twice, actually. Hehe.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Twice, actually. Hehe.

...*facepalm*

Oh, and for all you people who aren't a Lover:

Muahaha.

[Nerwen]

Sorry about that, Sally (and Shasta).
I thought your lover-hinting seemed too obvious to be real.

*is an idiot*

*a dead idiot*

*shuts up*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sorry about that, Sally (and Shasta).
I thought your lover-hinting seemed too obvious to be real.

*is an idiot*

*a dead idiot*

*shuts up*

Ah, more on that on the insane o'clock news.

*hugs you*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm so confused as to why the dead people are posting on the thread but I'm not against it.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm so confused as to why the dead people are posting on the thread but I'm not against it.

MY LOVE! *attack!glomps, holds onto you tightly*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I must say that I didn't really believe this will happen, but as it's been said, at least there was one less kill than there might have been (resp. two less, although in such a case there would be at least one dead Wolf). If I were to find something positive about the situation, it's that a) there's been this both-packs-doing the same, which, if they are attacking Nogrod toNight again, will reduce the kills and with good luck one of the packs might be eliminated by a few Days (like by two Days), so there will be no double Night kills - that's not so much of a consolation, but anyway; b) such a thing will not repeat itself (at least not without at least one Wolf going down as well), c) there are still two Unicorns, so there are effectively +2 innocents in the game still.

Anyway, yesterDay was luck, for that matter, looking from the light of it, maybe Nogrod was really right to choose to act at this moment rather than later, because looking at the last Night's events, he might have been as well dead by now if he didn't reveal. So, good job, Nog! And maybe the timing was good too, as there was not much time for discussion (and I do not pity the unanimous voting list, as, honestly, we won't learn *that* much from the votes anyway with this kind of... people in the village).

That said, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. There is like a tiny possibility that he might be a WolfSeer, but it's basically illogical, as in a game like this there is NO reason for pretending to be a Seer in order to survive, as somebody will always want to kill you sooner or later (and if you are fake, somebody will counter-reveal). Unless he'd be really playing it kamikaze in hope that the game will end in two Days or something, but I don't believe that'd happen. And we'll see for 100% toMorrow, I'd just hope to think that the Ranger had bluffed.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I doubt anyone is surprised Sally was a lover, she practically admitted it yesterDay with the whole "I'm not on any team thing". Kind of surprised then that Nerwen hunted her, I suppose she must have not seen what I saw.

Interesting to note, as I have never noticed anything at all. That said, you spoke about Anti-Lover possibly coming forth, indeed AL is basically the last Ordo remaining (well, and the Unicorn, sort of), but I wonder if that makes any sense, because by people revealing, we are also making things easier for the Wolves. And then it's only a matter of strategy from their part and I doubt they would leave Innocents alone totally.

Shasta does not get a revenge kill, right?

Wait, so there are no Ordos at this point anymore? Wonderful. But that'd mean there was only one Ordo to begin with? (Poor Morsul )

What I find quite curious, however, is the choice of Nerwen by both packs, I think I will look through yesterDay. As in: was there no other choice for any of them?

I don't think there's a good deal to know whom Lommy dreamed about, but I am not sure if that knowledge would be any good to us either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sorry about that, Sally (and Shasta).
I thought your lover-hinting seemed too obvious to be real.

*is an idiot*

*a dead idiot*

*shuts up*

And now, okay, even though I feel I should not quote dead people, I feel like a total idiot as well, because I haven't noticed any lover hints at all, where everybody else seems to have noticed.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Sallycakes

MY LOVE! *attack!glomps, holds onto you tightly*

*gags*

Originally Posted by Legate

That said, you spoke about Anti-Lover possibly coming forth, indeed AL is basically the last Ordo remaining (well, and the Unicorn, sort of), but I wonder if that makes any sense, because by people revealing, we are also making things easier for the Wolves. And then it's only a matter of strategy from their part and I doubt they would leave Innocents alone totally.

Well, I wouldn't call them an ordo, that implies they're on the village's side, which technically they are not, they're on their own, especially now that the Lovers are almost all dead.

I don't think a LommySeerWolf would be too obvious about her dreams, though I suppose it depends on the dream. Could be that she dreamt of Nerwen and that's why she said the whole "lynch her" thing. But really I doubt the evil seer made any hint, atleast regarding her dream, that could be helpful.

Another thought though, considering the last game I wouldn't be surprised if both wolf seers dreamt of Nerwen Night 1, and that's why both sides went for her last Night.

*really wants Nogs dream now plz*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm so confused as to why the dead people are posting on the thread but I'm not against it.

I was wondering about that myself. No doubt it's part of a diabolical plan of the moddess to keep us utterly confused.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. There is like a tiny possibility that he might be a WolfSeer, but it's basically illogical, as in a game like this there is NO reason for pretending to be a Seer in order to survive, as somebody will always want to kill you sooner or later (and if you are fake, somebody will counter-reveal).

I think it speaks even better for Nog now, as we know one of the Seer!wolves was Lommy. That reduces the odds of his being evil.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What I find quite curious, however, is the choice of Nerwen by both packs, I think I will look through yesterDay. As in: was there no other choice for any of them?

It's possible that, with Nog being guarded as they might think, they just saw her as a logical second choice. It is a rather remarkable coincidence that they both picked her though. .

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't think there's a good deal to know whom Lommy dreamed about, but I am not sure if that knowledge would be any good to us either.

I think trying to divine her dream is basically not useful to us. For what it's worth, maybe it was Shasta. That's who she voted for, I think.

[wilwarin538]

Just saw this:

c) there are still two Unicorns, so there are effectively +2 innocents in the game still.

If the wolfUnicorn dies we get another innocent right? So I get the feeling that that wolf pack is really protecting their Unicorn, because I doubt they want to lose one of their own and create another innocent at the same time. Our Unicorn, well if they stay alive cool, cause that's just like having an ord, if they die than we get another innocent, potentially with a gift like hunter or seer, depending on who's dead when the Unicorn dies. So really it wouldn't be all bad if our Unicorn gets killed, we won't be any further behind regarding numbers of innocents, and we could be potentially ahead regarding how many gifteds are around (getting another seer or hunter back for example).

Anyway, I wouldn't say there are +2 innocents at this time, we could potentially get 1 more innocent if the wolfUnicorn dies, but if ours does than our number of innocents stays the same.

Originally Posted by Legate

Wait, so there are no Ordos at this point anymore? Wonderful. But that'd mean there was only one Ordo to begin with? (Poor Morsul)

I just love this. Cause everyone is acting like an Ord, when no one is one. We're just all a bunch of liers aren't we? (except Nog and Shasta though, and well I'm not really, but you guys obviously don't have to believe that )

Originally Posted by ModdieLottie

Oh, and for all you people who aren't a Lover:

Muahaha.

*glares*

x'ed with Inzil, yay someone's here!!!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Inzil

For what it's worth, maybe it was Shasta. That's who she voted for, I think.

That's possible too, and I'm sure the wolves are loving that the Lovers are dead(ish) cause that's, well, lots of death.

But yeah, she only had 1 dream, and it likely wasn't hinted too at all. Innocent seers hint because they can't communicate to their people directly, evil seers don't have to do that because the people on their side they can just PM with, no reason to hint about their dreams to the other team(s).



edit: fixed was to wasn't, cause it made no sense the other way

[wilwarin538]

Just letting everyone know that I have to work today and my shift ends well after DL, and I likely won't be able to come on at work. So my vote will come in less than 4 hours, and than that will be all from me.

[Boromir88]

I have a little time on my lunch break to say a few things. One being I'm going to be at the school verrrry late today. I don't think I'll be able to get back here until about 7, so please don't leave me lots of drivel to sift through 2 hours before the DL? Kthanks.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Lommy was a Seer!wolf, not the village Seer. I'm not sure why you think it's possible she may have dreamed of Izzy based on that quote. Why would Lommywolf say something positive about someone she had dreamed? She would only want to lynch or Night-kill them.

She could have been laying the foundations for a fake seer reveal later (I think TEW said this already?), but I don't see much of a point in the whole thing. As Pitch said yesterday, why would it be the wolf-seers hinting about their dreams? They can communicate with other packmates, and I can imagine one of the other wolves looking like the seer as a decoy, but not the wolf-seers. Besides, what good is it trying to scower through Lommy's posts to try to find some vague hint about her one dream? It all looks like a red-herring to get us distracted by a virtually meaningless subject, and I suspect those doing it the most. With half you lot being evil now, I like my chances.

The only thing I could gleam from Lommy's posts are Shasta was probably innocent because of her vote for him. However, that's moot now.

As far as Nog, I seriously did not doubt you were the real seer at all yesterday (ok, that's a lie. Perhaps I did a little...think you were the wolf-hunter giving up a member of the rival pack and trying to get the real seer out so you kill him/her). I was hoping to stage a fight between us, and make it look like I'd go against you if you weren't attacked yesterday. However, seeing as it looks like no one is jumping for that bait, and are going to be content with trying their luck at killing you tonight....

I doubted, and hence my frustration, what the heck you were doing. I was under the impression with this many wolves the seer would want to get as many dreams as possible and not come out and reveal for no reason on Day 1. I see why you did it now though, I vastly under-estimated the amount of death that was possible at night. I mean the packs went for the same one and still look what happened!

The fortunate thing is, since they did go for Nerwen, they can't and won't trust eachother. Also, looks like we have 2 different packs, but both operating under the same ideas/reasons, and hence both went after the same person.

[Kitanna]

I went back to read all the posts AFTER Nogrod pegs Lommy as a wolf in the hopes maybe one of her packmates slipped up. I ignored posts by Shasta, Sally, Nerwen, and Morsul.

Wilwa: Believes him to be the seer, seeing that it makes sense for an innocent seer to reveal as he did rather than run the risk of being killed in the night. In a later post she defends Nogrod's reveal from Sally and Boro.

Legate: Placed Nogrod in his yellow area, but he also admitted he didn't have the time to recheck the thread before turning in for the night. He placed Lommy in his green section. At the end of his post he added an edit about having seen what Nogrod revealed.

Boro: Asks if a wolf seer would reveal so soon. Puts forth several possibilities to other avenues. (such as wolf seer trying to look good, non-wolf seer trying to benefit his pack, I'm guessing he means lead the village away from the real wolf seer.) In a later post explains why he didn't want to jump on board and trust Nogrod without considering other options.

Izzy: Seems to agree with Wilwa and trusts Nogrod. Feels Legate is buttering Nog up.

Zil: Trusts Nogrod it looks like, but finds it unusual that he revealed when he was in no danger.

Pitch: Believes Nogrod to be a seer because no one would be foolish enough to lead us to lynch an innocent.

TEW: Knows it's a seer claim, nothing else really said.

Conclusions:
Wilwa: At first I was wary because she so readily agreed with Nogrod. But as I read on in her posts after that initial one she made good points as to why an innocent Nogrod would reveal so soon. Her continued defense of his reveal speaks more innocent to me than wolfish.

Boro: I like that Boro considered other options as to Nogrod being a wolf revealing to look good. I'm inclined to trust for this because he continued to defend this position that he didn't want to enthusiastically jump into believing Nogrod without giving it some thought. The fact that Wilwa and Boro both felt strongly enough in one direction or the other that they kept defending their points rather than just agreeing and voting makes me think more innocent at this point.

Legate: Didn't have time to really react in full to the reveal, but his brief reaction was suspect to me. He immediately glomped onto Nogrod it looked like and had a sort of "oh darn I was wrong about you and Lommy" all along.

TEW, Zil, Pitch, and Izzy: All are hard to read not giving much away after Nogrod's reveal. For the most part all fall into "Nogrod is telling the truth because why would he lie so early?" category. Legate falls into this too, but his "you were right, I was wrong" edit in his vote post seemed forced.

Unfortunately I can't come home from work on my lunch break to vote. There hasn't been a whole lot of activity today either and I was in a time crunch so I could only focus on a small number of posts. But here's my vote.

++ Legate

Of all those that reacted after the reveal of Nogrod his seemed the most forced. It looked as though he was trying to pull himself closer to Nogrod and distant himself from Lommy. Possible packmates?

Best of luck for the rest of the day.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wilwa #176

Our Unicorn, well if they stay alive cool, cause that's just like having an ord, if they die than we get another innocent, potentially with a gift like hunter or seer, depending on who's dead when the Unicorn dies.

wilwa, unless I completely misunderstand what you're talking about we've been through all this yesterDay. Revived innocents come back as ordos. If they were gifted before (as almost everybody in this crazy game seems to be), they'd of course remember their dreams and picks from their previous lives, but they'll no longer be gifted. At least that's how I read the Rules.
I'd assume a wolf would be concerned enough about the possibility of a Seer returning from the grave to get that straight, so this little bit of confusion makes me rather more inclined to believe you're innocent. Or is this just what you'd like us to think?

Originally Posted by Kit #180

Pitch: Believes Nogrod to be a seer because no one would be foolish enough to lead us to lynch an innocent.

Actually, that's two different things:
1. The part about the stupidity of getting an innocent lynched with a fake reveal was my reason for believing that Lommy was indeed a wolf; and if whosoever gives us a wolf, we lynch the wolf and worry about the Seer-claimant later.
2. My reason to believe that Nog is a Seer (and not a masquerading Hunter or something else) is simple psychology - as in, when I saw he claimed to have dreamed Lommy I immediately thought "Of course he would", it's just like him to pick her for his first dream.
That last post of mine was made in a bit of a hurry before going to bed, and I was quite tired by then, so maybe I didn't express myself that clearly.
Now the remaining question is whether Nog is the village Seer or the surviving wolf-Seer; only time will tell, I suppose, but as long as we don't know, let's follow wilwa's good advice from yesterDay: trust his wolf dreams, be wary about his innocent dreams. If his wolves conveniently happen to be all from the same pack, however, that might be reason to worry about his alignment.
Just to make myself completely understood: I honestly wish and hope Nog is our true Seer, I'm just not prepared to utterly rule out the other possibility, however unlikely it may seem.

Going to look a bit at Lommy's interactions now.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

wilwa, unless I completely misunderstand what you're talking about we've been through all this yesterDay. Revived innocents come back as ordos. If they were gifted before (as almost everybody in this crazy game seems to be), they'd of course remember their dreams and picks from their previous lives, but they'll no longer be gifted. At least that's how I read the Rules.
I'd assume a wolf would be concerned enough about the possibility of a Seer returning from the grave to get that straight, so this little bit of confusion makes me rather more inclined to believe you're innocent. Or is this just what you'd like us to think?

Ok, I think you may have misunderstood me, or the rules, unless I don't get the rules maybe. The way I see it let's say 3 innocents are dead: A was an Ordo, B was a Hunter, C was a Seer. The Unicorn then dies. Lottie puts the names of A, B, and C in a hat and picks one out, that is the person who comes back to life. Then to decide the role that person comes back with she puts all of the "dead" roles into a hat (so Ordo, Hunter, Seer) and then that's the role of the person who comes back.

So for example if the Unicorn was to die toDay either Sally, Nerwen or Shasta would come back, and their possible roles would be Ord (cause of Morsul) or Hunter, since you can't have a lone lover so that wouldn't be considered.

So yes, like Nog is Seer now, if he dies toNight and can't give us his dream, but then the Unicorn dies and let's say he comes back as the Hunter, he'll have a different role, but could still share that other dream with us. So the wolves would certainly be concerned for the Unicorn to die, since it could create more gifteds, and if their own Unicorn dies than that's even worse since they could lose a packmate and create another gifted all at the same time.

Or am I completely misinterpreting this role?

Originally Posted by Pitch

let's follow wilwa's good advice from yesterDay: trust his wolf dreams, be wary about his innocent dreams

I also said that not thinking that a seer would reveal Day 1. This would definitely have applied if the seer reveal had been later, but I seriously have a hard time believing an evil seer would reveal on the first Day. Especially since he had no risk of being lynched, and (if he was evil) would have a wolfRanger to protect him at Night. So I think because of that we can believe him.

Goodness, I really hope Nog shows up before I have to leave.

[Pitchwife]

wilwa, about the Unicorns - I believe I've already quoted the pertinent passage from the Admin thread, but once more:

Originally Posted by Lottie, Admin thread, first post as per last edit

If the WereUnicorn is killed, one of the dead players is returned to life. The dead player used to be innocent and will then be an ordo.
[...]
Unicorn. Same as the WereUnicorn, except on the innocents' side.

Bolding mine.
So yes, if Nog in your example is revived, he'll be able to give us the dream he had as a Seer, but he won't be a Hunter or otherwise gifted.
What we do get from a Unicorn's death is a revived known (un-gifted) innocent, which the wolves will want to avoid as long as possible; you're right about that part.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Finally here for a short while.

If you Wilwa need to go soon, just vote whom you think is the most suspicious. I'd rather not say anything on the dream as yet - and if you pick badly I can suggest the others to avoid that choice. Okay?

Hmm... some thoughts to follow. (I've just read the thread and have to pause for a thought first).

[wilwarin538]

Ok, then that was certainly my mistake, I think the way I discribed it was how it was originally planned, I must have missed the change there. Hopefully I don't confuse anyone with my last post then. But yeah, either way the wolves still want to avoid it.

So I have to leave like, now. I'm going to try super hard to get back on here before DL, but I really don't think I'll be able to, so I'm going to have to vote now.

So who's left:
Kit
Pitchie
Zil
Wilwa - will not vote for
Boro
Nog - will not vote for
The Elf-warrior
Izzy
Legate

Pitch, Legate and Inzil I feel good about (and one of them has to be guilty by math, I just don't know which). Boro, I forgot was playing. Izzy I think just made that one little comment at the start of the Day, which is odd. Kit I'm fairly ok with. Elfie, I have no idea.

So there are 7 people I could vote for. 5 are wolves. I really think we could all just vote random and probably still get a wolf.

gah, I really have to go.

++Izzy

Mostly random, I'll admit. But mathematically I have a 5 in 7 chance of being right, so I'm cool with those odds.

Yeah, I'm going to have to come back.

*hopes Nog dreamt me and wolves are logical*

x'ed with Nog, oh come on man, you're killing me here with the suspense...*leaves for real*

[Nogrod]

First of all: I do like happy faces around but sadly I need to bring my fellow innocents down a bit. There are ten people around toDay of which one innocent (Shasta) is able to vote but otherwise is practically dead already.

That leaves four innocents against five wolves (in teams of 2 and 3).

The next Night the wolves will kill me and because neither team can afford to count on the other team to do it, so they both come my way. So no innocent will be killed in the coming Night except me. *prays the ranger gambled last Night*

So how will toMorrow look like?

If we lynch an innocent toDay it will be:
2 innocents - facing 5 wolves
and
2 wolves (pack A) - facing 5 enemies
3 wolves (pack B) - facing 4 enemies

So you can see who has reason to be cheerful and who has not...

Well, if we lynch a wolf toDay it will be:
3 innocents - facing 4 wolves
and
1 wolf (A) - facing 6 enemies
3 wolves (B) - facing 4 enemies
or
2 wolves (A) - facing 5 enemies
2 wolves (B) - facing 5 enemies

That would be far better for us. So let's put some effort into this.

I need to go to sleep quite a lot earlier I did last night so I can't hang around up to the last hours of the Day - and I still need to read a bunch of essays today. So how about everyone able to be online within the next three hours or something came up with more or less a list of suspicions and possible trust? With reasons.

That's just a suggestion.

[Nogrod]

As it looks pretty quiet I think I'll do my essay-reading right now. I'll be back in about an hour and will then put myself into this for real for an hour or two.

Hoping to see people coming online meanwhile...

[Inziladun]

Not a lot of time at the moment, as it's the middle of my workday again. TEW interests me greatly. I've never played with him before and have no indication of his 'normal' style, but some bells are ringing.
Ah, who am I to let work get in the way of WW?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

AAAGH! We're in big trouble, no mistake about it. OK, anybody wanna confess? Anybody? *shrugs*

Classic 'Oh, dear, evil wolves are after us', a furry staple.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Well, it's pretty quiet here. I guess I'll do a recap.

Post #1 and #2 Modess narration.
Post #3 The Elf-warrior expresses panic. He asks if anybody wants to confess.
Post #4 Wilwarin538 writes a song for the pleasure of the modess. It is a parody of a Barenaked Ladies number called Another Postcard. She needs to go to bed and wake up the next morning to get a blood test. She might be able to post before then. She expresses doubts about her physical condition.
Post #5 Modess congratulates Wilwarin538 on her song parody. (She compliments The Elf-warrior in an edit.) She calls the two her minions.
Post #6 Shasta shows symptoms of multiple personality disorder.
Post #7 Izzy turns The Elf-warrior's question back on him. He compliments Wilwa on her song. He also jokes that channeling Nilp is lynch-worthy.
Post #8 The Elf-warrior proclaims his innocence. He parodies a song by Black Sabbath called War Pigs.
Post #9 Satansaloser jokingly expresses a desire to run away with Nilp.

Could be seen as nothing more than an effort to appear helpful.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

No, Isabellkya. We need a better reason than a werewolf themed parody of a song about paper communications from chimpanzees.

That was in answer to this from Izzy:

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Should we lynch Wilwa now for professing her paper communications between herself and wolves? Or did I read that wrong?

which was fairly obviously a joke. An attempt to cast some early suspicion for future case building?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

++ Lommy

It's a seer claim. Looks like a great shot at bagging a wolf to me.

A vote for Lommy, the 7th, then this:

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

In the interests of full disclosure, I'd like to say the last sentence of my last post was added a few minutes later.

Why the need for the disclaimer? Extra conscious of editing after the suspicion dropped on Nerwen, though he himself said Nerwen's slip was a 'sign of innocence' in her?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'd like to correct something I said yesterDAY. I also played Werewolf with the late Sally in Werewolf XLVIII, Virtual Reality. Wilwa, that "I'm on no team thing," passed me by. After I read about her desire to run away with Nilp/Shasta, I suspected they were lovers, but that suspicion slipped from me in the hustle and bustle of other things. Also, I realized that the lovers aren't really evil. I wouldn't have thought that a lover would be so blatant about it. When I read that the two were lovers, I thought to myself that I should have known.

Something caught my eye in one of Lommy's posts, Could Lommy have dreamed of Izzy? On the other hand, she may be Lommy's packmate. Or I'm reading too much into this statement.

Looking back at the rules, I noticed that a wolf!seer is told the gifts of his or her dreamee. Maybe Lommy dreamed of Nerwen and told her pack. However, this doesn't explain why both packs ate her. Was Nerwen putting out hunter vibes I completely missed?

I'm not surprised neither pack went after Nogrod. I think one of the trains of wolf thinking going on was that if they left Nogrod alive, people would be more likely not to trust him. This wouldn't neutralize his potential wolf reveals, but it would make people less likely to trust his analysises and innocent reveals. Also, it is/was likely that the ranger protected Nogrod. In conclusion, I don't find Nogrod's continued survival very suspicious.

Isabellkya, I think Morsul asked to be killed because RL was too encroaching.

All this seems rather overblown with the explanation of why he didn't catch Sally's Lover hints. Why is that important to clarify? And the focus on Lommy's dream is counterproductive and time-wasting. The Seer!wolf's dream is simply a tool to help the wolves know whom to target. The subject of her dream would probably have been a target of hers for lynching, and maybe her packmates could latch on if possible. Unless there was some apparent concerted action between Lommy and some others, I don't see how we could connect her dream to her packmates. And the votes were altered because of Nog's reveal.
Also, there's quite a bit of rumination on why Nog wasn't targeted. Really, the likeliest reason is that the packs feared the Ranger, be it a Ranger!wolf or a the village Ranger. His theory has the feel of something that might have been previously discussed with someone else....

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Kitanna, I think Lommy might have dreamed of Nerwen. Could Lommy have learned that Nerwen was the hunter? Not a certainty by any means, (after all, Nerwen expected such a reaction from Lommy anyway) but I think its a possibility.

More about Lommy's dream. It just looks like trying too hard to look useful.

Really must go for now. But TEW is worrying.

[Pitchwife]

Bah, I skimmed through Lommy's posts again, but with the way she was flip-flopping or being just vague about most people all the time, if there are any ties to her packmates in there I can't see them.

I feel good about Izzy, however, exactly because Lommy was so positive about her (neglecting the unsolvable question who her dream was). I don't think Lommy would have associated herself so clearly with a packmate or a rival wolf, but I can see her buddying up to an innocent, maybe with an intention to leave Izzy tainted later in case she'd survive Lommy. Plus I've seen nothing suspicious in Izzy herself.

I'm trusting Nog to be the true Seer until proven otherwise. There is, to repeat myself, still a possibility he's a wolf-Seer pulling a daring act (and I don't think this would be quite as implausible as the majority seems to believe), but what's most important, I've seen nothing in his pre-reveal behaviour that would make me suspect him.

I don't really know what to think of wilwa. She said some clever things in the discussion about Seer reveals yesterDay, and her reaction to Nog's reveal looked good, but otherwise she's either genuinely confused or acting confused and trying to confuse us, I don't know which.

Kit still looks good to me, I like the way she thinks and looks at things. The reason for her vote (Legate's edit-reaction to Nog's reveal) was a bit meager the way she presented it (meaning that the fact he made that edit in haste may have been in part responsible for it looking 'forced'), but I agree with her that Legate seemed to be in a big hurry to accept Nog's claim.

Now, Legate himself. I said yesterDay he and Lommy seemed to be agreeing quite a lot; looking back, it seems the only thing they explicitely agreed about was Lommy's remark that in this game, people who go after wolves aren't necessarily innocent (on which I commented at the time). The other thing I noticed (and of course I would) was the way they sort of played ping-pong with suspecting me for diverging reasons, none of them very clear. (In contrast, our late sally - to put this in a family-friendly way - quite annoyed me with the way she went after me, but she at least presented something remotely resembling a case.) Looking at what they said about each other, Legate was quite unwavering in finding Lommy not suspicious at all, whereas Lommy found him 'wishy-washy', 'fishy' or generally feeling offish; in my eyes, this is just the kind of passing suspicion a wolf would post about a packmate - enough to distance herself from him just in case, not enough to make anybody else suspect him seriously. So if you want to know whom I don't trust, here's one. Not any more.

Posting this now, and then looking at the rest.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I'm back and I must say I have expected far more posting here, but well, the village is not exceptionally big anymore all of a sudden.

Also, I wonder if it might have something to do with the amount of Wolves...

Anyway... a few brief reactions... then I will probably post some summing post when I try to clarify my views on people. By the way, Nog, I hope you are going to post your dream sooner rather than later (with your infamous staying up till five ), as some people in your timezone would like to know it before they go to sleep - especially toDay as it's crucial for innocents not to vote innocents...

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It's possible that, with Nog being guarded as they might think, they just saw her as a logical second choice. It is a rather remarkable coincidence that they both picked her though.

Well, but why a "logical" second choice? What's so logical about it? Or do you know something I do not??

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Legate: Didn't have time to really react in full to the reveal, but his brief reaction was suspect to me. He immediately glomped onto Nogrod it looked like and had a sort of "oh darn I was wrong about you and Lommy" all along.

(...)

Of all those that reacted after the reveal of Nogrod his seemed the most forced. It looked as though he was trying to pull himself closer to Nogrod and distant himself from Lommy. Possible packmates?

Okay, I am not sure if I understand what you are trying to say, but it does not make sense to me. I have not reacted to Nogrod at all yesterDay, I have only cross-posted with him and I was about to go to sleep, and my exclamation there was reaction to the fact that somebody has made a Seer-reveal at the moment when I was just leaving the thread for good (I had about five and half an hour before I was supposed to wake up the next day at that time, so I did not want to stay up and start reading Nogrod's posts and thinking whether he is a Seer or not. I decided to just go to sleep and leave it be).

EDIT: X-ed with PW and once again, the same thing as above - I don't see when I have yesterDay accepted Nogrod. I had no time to accept him or not, I have been sleeping...

[Pitchwife]

I'm not at all sure I like the case Zil made against TEWie just now. I said yesterDay that TEWie's early posts didn't feel quite right to me, but all in all, it rather looks to me like he's somewhat out of WW practice after a long interval and trying hard to get back the feel for it. (I don't know how many games he's actually played before his temporary retirement, so if someone could enlighten me whether he's a true veteran or has just played a few games now and then, that'd be nice. Thanks.) That's not saying he can't be a wolf, of course, but if you want to convince me, try harder.

EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, but why a "logical" second choice? What's so logical about it? Or do you know something I do not??

I don't know what Zil was thinking of, but in my eyes Nerwen was rather quiet, balanced and non-committing even by her own usual standards (which is why I put her in my 'unsure/suspect' category yesterDay), so I'd imagine to both packs she could have seemed either a rival wolf or an innocent gifted; therefore not necessarily the logical choice, but a logical choice.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, but why a "logical" second choice? What's so logical about it? Or do you know something I do not??

Logical for two reasons. One is the fact that Nerwen has quite a fearsome reputation, and justifiably so, for wolf-hunting. The second is that on Day 1 in this game she wasn't terribly active, and thus would have left little trail.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not at all sure I like the case Zil made against TEWie just now. I said yesterDay that TEWie's early posts didn't feel quite right to me, but all in all, it rather looks to me like he's somewhat out of WW practice after a long interval and trying hard to get back the feel for it. (I don't know how many games he's actually played before his temporary retirement, so if someone could enlighten me whether he's a true veteran or has just played a few games now and then, that'd be nice. Thanks.) That's not saying he can't be a wolf, of course, but if you want to convince me, try harder.

It doesn't pay to underestimate someone on the basis of newness or a long absence. I'm only going off what I see. If you're not 'convinced', that's fine.

x/d with Pitch's last

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

With basic logic, there are five Wolves out of seven people I can choose from (or any innocent, for that matter). If Nog gives his dream, the numbers will even decrease (for everybody except the person he dreamt about).

I really see the only chance of Nog being the other Wolf-Seer in being kamikaze-ish and hoping for the game to end soon enough so that he is not killed by the other pack. Unless the pack really counted on their Ranger and the innocent Ranger taking turns in protecting him, however, we must not forget that there will be also the other Seer, the real one. We didn't have any counter-claim, that's one quite big reason why I trust him.

So now after looking at people, the basic outline is this:

Kit - I don't get her points against me, seemed more innocent yesterday, now might be pretty well one of the WWs trying to find easy grounds to eliminate somebody on.
Pitchie - I cannot get rid still of this pitchparanoia, although his behavior has gotten somewhat better since yesterDay, he started writing posts with some "dynamic". But with such a high percentage of WWs, it's quite easy to keep him in the guilty part of people. The last remark joining Kit's misinterpretation of me also could have been nice jumping a bandwagon.
Zil - I wasn't sure about this remark I quoted above, that looked as if he was knowing something more than an "average mortal" does.
Wilwa - in general sounded innocent in the sense of accepting Nogrod and even general behavior, however, especially with the rules confusion recently, it looked slightly manufactured. As if acted. But then, in total, I have more innocent impression from her.
Boro - Also this explanation of his yesterDay reaction of Nogrod looked slightly manufactured. Could have been, once again taking into account the amount of WWs in here. Otherwise he tried to be "reasonable" before, but again, that's no proof here.
Nog - see above
The Elf-warrior - actually not much to go about with him, although he might be a typical prototype of a Under-the-Radar-Flying Werewolf.
Izzy - also not much to go around, more innocent feeling than not, but hard to say. Although I think either she or TEW probably might be a WW (or maybe both, with each team having their own under-radarer...).

There's a lot to choose from, but there's also a large choice. The main point is - toDay's main appeal on all the Innocents - in simple words, not to lynch an Innocent (for these reasons, I will probably refrain from voting any of the more enigmatic people - TEW, Iz - unless I get more reading on them). It is not that difficult by maths, and funnily enough, the hope is also to attract Wolves to vote for a Wolf.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Logical for two reasons. One is the fact that Nerwen has quite a fearsome reputation, and justifiably so, for wolf-hunting. The second is that on Day 1 in this game she wasn't terribly active, and thus would have left little trail.

Okay, well, that would clarify it a bit. I just got the feeling that you sounded a bit too "confident" about this. For that matter, these of course are reasons, but still a bit curious as to why both the packs thought about the same person. Hm, it would be fun to try to run a simulation of several packs of people and try whether there'd be a person who, if in any of the packs, would not want to have Nerwen killed, and thus making one get a clue that he or she is an innocent, but I guess my knowledge of everybody's psychology is not yet on that high level, not to mention the number of combinations possible...

Well. Anyway, I might led Inzil slide a bit backwards among my suspects now, but still there is something to think about...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by EW

Something caught my eye in one of Lommy's posts, Could Lommy have dreamed of Izzy? On the other hand, she may be Lommy's packmate. Or I'm reading too much into this statement.

Looking back at the rules, I noticed that a wolf!seer is told the gifts of his or her dreamee. Maybe Lommy dreamed of Nerwen and told her pack. However, this doesn't explain why both packs ate her. Was Nerwen putting out hunter vibes I completely missed?

I'm not surprised neither pack went after Nogrod. I think one of the trains of wolf thinking going on was that if they left Nogrod alive, people would be more likely not to trust him. This wouldn't neutralize his potential wolf reveals, but it would make people less likely to trust his analysises and innocent reveals. Also, it is/was likely that the ranger protected Nogrod. In conclusion, I don't find Nogrod's continued survival very suspicious.

Originally Posted by Inzil on EW

Also, there's quite a bit of rumination on why Nog wasn't targeted. Really, the likeliest reason is that the packs feared the Ranger, be it a Ranger!wolf or a the village Ranger. His theory has the feel of something that might have been previously discussed with someone else....

EW's post caught my eye as well when I read through the posting from toDay, but I must say I feel contrary to Inzil. If EW had discussed things with a pack of mates he probably wouldn't have said those things...

First of all Lommy dreaming of Izzy and then publicly saying she's a goodie is just plain oddity a wolf taking part in a Nightly discussion would not think. As Wilwa and Boro have said: there is no reason for a wolfseer to give hints of her dreams during the Day as they can PM & discuss the findings at Nights. And to say "I like her" as a hint just looks odd as there is none on their side outside those three they already know themselves.

So making such a misunderstanding speaks heavily in favour of EW not being involved in any Nightly discussions.

Izzy being her packmate is possible, although I think Lommy's buddying up with her looked more like a wolf making friends with an innocent to gain some good will ("I like her"). Befriending that openly with a packmate would sound quite daring indeed.

Talking of Lommy's dream on N1 the only arguable / plausible idea to me seems to be that she might have dreamt of Izzy and found her innocent thus trying to buddy up with her).

But back to EW. Also the idea that Lommy found out Nerwen and signalled her mates is an odd way to think (yeah, she would have just plain told them during the Night and that's it) - not to say that the hunters are basically the last people the wolves love to try and kill. Although in this case it might be argued they'd like to try the hunter on D1 rather than Day X in the future? But anyway it's still unbelievable she'd need to point out anyone to anyone in public - and a wolf would know that.

Also the way in which he seems to "come to the conclusion" that he doesn't think my continued presence too suspicious looks more like someone trying to think of it himself and coming to a conclusion (making both cases first: the possibility of trying to undermine the believability and the fear of the ranger) rather than a wolf suddenly bringing forwards such an idea. Why would a wolf bring forward such a point as if someone would have distrusted me (and it was early in the Day then) it would have suited them so much better?

So all in all, I'm tending to think EW more innocent than not. That is not "knowledge-based" but just my opinion based on what I have read thus far.



But then again, I'm not so sure about Inzil.

First of all his case against EW looks like an easy case a wolf might make - hoping that EW wouldn't be able to put up a real counterfight or defence and as everyone will see EW's points are somewhat odd people might accept that kind of case as the "easy lynch".

What I do wonder as well is this (quoted up there as well):

Originally Posted by Inzil

Really, the likeliest reason is that the packs feared the Ranger, be it a Ranger!wolf or a the village Ranger.

Hmm... You seem to be quite deep inside with the situation. I had to read this like four times before I realised what this meant!

But it is clear now as I realised it. So if Lommy's wolf-team feared I was the wolfseer of the other team... then they might have feared the wolfranger might have been there to prevent them from killing me. Okay... so you guys feared someone from the other pack protected me?

And as I think I said yesterDay, his appearance on Lommy's list looks the most bothersome to me.

Originally Posted by Lommy's "more good than bad" 1/4

Zil - seems more reasonable than most, although I can't remember anything in particular that he said, which could be eyebrow-raising. He is not giving the sinister vibes he so often is when he's evil.

I can see Lommy buddying up with the others for various reasons but somehow Inzil being there looked to me a bit out of place, especially regarding the way she made it.


Okay, X'd with a host. A small pause, reading and then back.

[Pitchwife]

OK, who else is still alive?

Shasta - dead Lover walking, 'nuff said.
TEWie - see my #191 for what I think of him.
Boro - I like it that he didn't completely fall out of his chair with enthusiasm to embrace Nog as the true Seer. On the other hand, I think the question of Nog's alignment (or his being a real Seer or a decoy) was beside the point as far as the pragmatics of voting Lommy or not were concerned. On the third hand, he was probably trying to get an interesting response from Nog by questioning him as long as the iron was hot, so to speak, which was rather a good idea, as well as probing who would latch on to his alleged doubts. All in all, looking rather goodish.
Zil - needs some more thought and re-reading.

EDIT: x-ed w/ Zil, 2 Legates and Nog

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

EW's post caught my eye as well when I read through the posting from toDay, but I must say I feel contrary to Inzil. If EW had discussed things with a pack of mates he probably wouldn't have said those things...

First of all Lommy dreaming of Izzy and then publicly saying she's a goodie is just plain oddity a wolf taking part in a Nightly discussion would not think. As Wilwa and Boro have said: there is no reason for a wolfseer to give hints of her dreams during the Day as they can PM & discuss the findings at Nights. And to say "I like her" as a hint just looks odd as there is none on their side outside those three they already know themselves.

So making such a misunderstanding speaks heavily in favour of EW not being involved in any Nightly discussions.

Izzy being her packmate is possible, although I think Lommy's buddying up with her looked more like a wolf making friends with an innocent to gain some good will ("I like her"). Befriending that openly with a packmate would sound quite daring indeed.

Talking of Lommy's dream on N1 the only arguable / plausible idea to me seems to be that she might have dreamt of Izzy and found her innocent thus trying to buddy up with her).

But back to EW. Also the idea that Lommy found out Nerwen and signalled her mates is an odd way to think (yeah, she would have just plain told them during the Night and that's it) - not to say that the hunters are basically the last people the wolves love to try and kill. Although in this case it might be argued they'd like to try the hunter on D1 rather than Day X in the future? But anyway it's still unbelievable she'd need to point out anyone to anyone in public - and a wolf would know that.

Also the way in which he seems to "come to the conclusion" that he doesn't think my continued presence too suspicious looks more like someone trying to think of it himself and coming to a conclusion (making both cases first: the possibility of trying to undermine the believability and the fear of the ranger) rather than a wolf suddenly bringing forwards such an idea. Why would a wolf bring forward such a point as if someone would have distrusted me (and it was early in the Day then) it would have suited them so much better?

So all in all, I'm tending to think EW more innocent than not. That is not "knowledge-based" but just my opinion based on what I have read thus far.

I can see your points about TEW. I found myself not even considering him when I looked at tht situation toDay, and thought I'd go back and look closely. As I said, newbies can be wolves, and they can many times more easily slide through without suspicion. The things I noted caught my eye. Now, keep in mind that I am at work (still) and haven't had a chance to thoroughly analyze everything properly.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hmm... You seem to be quite deep inside with the situation. I had to read this like four times before I realised what this meant!

But it is clear now as I realised it. So if Lommy's wolf-team feared I was the wolfseer of the other team... then they might have feared the wolfranger might have been there to prevent them from killing me. Okay... so you guys feared someone from the other pack protected me?

And as I think I said yesterDay, his appearance on Lommy's list looks the most bothersome to me.
I can see Lommy buddying up with the others for various reasons but somehow Inzil being there looked to me a bit out of place, especially regarding the way she made it.

So, I posit a reason why you were not targeted last Night (which merely seems logicial) and I'm suspicious, however TEW, who's been doing the same thing, isn't?
And I can't help what Lommy said about me any more than can Izzy, or Kit.

x/d with Pitch

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

So, I posit a reason why you were not targeted last Night (which merely seems logicial) and I'm suspicious, however TEW, who's been doing the same thing, isn't?

I hadn't actually revisited your post on it so I can't say. I need to check it. But what striked me the most was that EW seems to be a little "off-the-basics" in a way and therefore I'm inclined to think he was just not on top of the things.

And I can't help what Lommy said about me any more than can Izzy, or Kit.

Yeah, that's the problem... Actually I remember a host of times I have cursed my packmates for speaking stupidly about me - or wolves addressing an innocent me like I was related to them...

But I do think we have better lynches toDay than you... if it helps.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate #190

EDIT: X-ed with PW and once again, the same thing as above - I don't see when I have yesterDay accepted Nogrod. I had no time to accept him or not, I have been sleeping...

OK, I just went back to check what exactly you said:

Originally Posted by Legate #99

EDITNOTE: Okay! It took me a long while to sum my thoughts on this post and anyway it wasn't enough time, but it took long time for some things to happen on the thread, but I am not going to react on that! I have to go to sleep! Too late, incredible, why? I cannot think about it now. Nogrod! Why? Okay. I can't think about it now. GOOD NIGHT. Posting and voting as I have decided before. No other chances. (This effectively means, crossed with all the Nogrod stuff!!!!)

Sorry, you didn't really say what I thought and claimed you'd said. I plead guilty of following Kit's representation of you based on a mixture of my memory of that post and what you said about Nog toDay, without checking what you really said at the time. I apologize for that and agree that Kit was misrepresenting you.
This doesn't touch my other reasons for suspecting you as given in my #189.

EDIT: removed one redundant 'toDay' in the paragraph before the last.