WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Yes, and unless I'm greatly mistaken it would need to be 3 villagers to 3 wolves for us to lose, as opposed to the 6 villagers to 3 wolves we'd have if we missed our lynch today.

Can I please get an official clarification on this?

6-3missed lynch
5-3Wizard kill
4-3missed lynch
3-3wizard kill

that's the math I've got

[Rikae]

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

[Coppermirror]

This is my analysis of Inzil and Kath so far, going up to about page 10. I'm getting a bit tired, so I just want to post what I have so far. After a little bit I'll come back and finish the rest and make my conclusions.

Inzil

Votes
Day 1: Pom
Day 2: Ozban
Day 3: Gil
Day 4: Gil

#6 - banter.

#14 - banter. Says it's those who aren't up to no good who we have to worry about.

#23 - disagrees with Morsul, who had talked about something Pom said as a suggestion, saying "I wouldn't call it a "suggestion". A standard Day 1 statement, more like". I think it's unlikely that both Morsul and Inzil would be wizards and chatting about Pom-wizard like this on the very first page.

#71 - Decides to stop banter for now. Thinks that Morsul's vote is a stretch but wasn't too bad for a Day 1 vote. Jokes with Rikae about suspecting/voting for each other.

#78 - doesn't like Gil's vote reasoning.

#105 - vote count so far, and comments on oddness of Pom's comment.

#127 - votes Pom. Was willing to give Gil a pass, and didn't feel keen on voting Nerwen. He was the first voter for Pom. Would a wizard be the first voter for her? Maybe, but it's more likely that they wouldn't.

#153 - wonders if the wizards were among the Pom voters or outside them or in both.

#160 - Wants to look more closely at Nog, and wants to look at the McCaber voters. He thinks that the first of these was Rikae, whose vote he thought looked fairly innocent.

#170 - Comments on Morsul's placement of Lottie as his top suspicion. Fairly noncommittal but thinks she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely. Then comments on Morsul's opinion that if Lottie is a wizard, Nog may be cleared, agreeing that if the two were mates she would surely have come up with others to suspect. Then he comments on Nerwen's Pom analysis.

#171 - Responds to Lottie, saying she's not his top suspect for the day.

#198 - Says that common sense means that I'm unlikely to be a wizard, as there's no reason for Pom to have voted that way otherwise. Decides to focus on those who might have tried to save Pom: Boro, Volo, Nog.

#208 - Recaps votes. Gives impressions of each person's vote.

People he things look good: me, Rikae, Lottie, Shasta-innocent.
Of Greenie-innocent, thought that she could look bandwagony but her reasoning was good.
Thought that Ozban-innocent looked bad.
Concludes that the person whose vote looks worst from a Pom-saving perspective is Nog.

#235 - wonders who to vote for. Likes Nog's explanation, doesn't want to vote Boro in the latter's absence, and thinks Volo's vote was the least suspicious of the three. Suspicious of Gil's vote. Could vote for Ozban, and thinks the Morsul vote looks rather fabricated. (Hmm. Makes me wonder if my conclusion that there couldn't be a Morsul-Inzil pack before was too hasty.)

#237 - Decides Gil is being too careless to be a wizard, and votes Ozban.

#273 - Wonders why Volo caught wizard attention.

#275 - Wonders if Volo was the blocked Day 1 target or if it was something from the previous Day that made him the wizards' choice.

#293 - Thinks that Seer-suspicion makes the most sense for Volo's death and that if they wanted to mess with our heads they must have had other options.

#313 - Thinks a wizard Rikae would not have made that confession, and that makes him wonder about Nerwen's quick vote. Then rolls eyes at seeing Morsul's vote.

#314 - considers Morsul's statement that the only way Rikae is innocent is if she's the purseholder with a target in mind. (Incidentally, if the wizards do think that at present, then maybe that's why she wasn't killed. Or - actually, no, it's more likely that they just thought the insomniac troll would be defending her and needed another target. Or that they were aiming for the insomniac troll.)

#318 - thinks Morsul's reason for voting Rikae is better than Nerwen's.

Kath

Votes
Day 1: n/a
Day 2: Morsul
Day 3: Morsul
Day 4: Sally

#5 - Banter. This was the wizard of Oz reference that caused her to be suspected by Morsul as a possible cobbler. It's very unlikely to be a sign left by a wizard for the cobbler to find.

#13 - Banter. Says wonders if Morsul is trying to distract us by talking more about trolls than wizards.

#223 - arrives.

- summarises previous Days. Might be worth people reading to see if they can get anything more from it than me.

In particular, she finds something Volo said odd, and comments on his playing style so far.

#232 - Decides she will look at the people who voted for me, but isn't sure how likely Boro or McCaber were to be wolves. Didn't like the "suspicion mongering" phrase from McCaber. Finds herself still worried about Volo.

#239 - votes Morsul, mostly for the "innocent McCab" comment, and notes that Lottie has spotted it too. (So I wonder, does this make a Kath-Lottie pack less likely?)

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

It's something that was being discussed Cab asked for clarification so I clarified it.

Cool though, you want to vote for me I understand, wouldn't want to mess up this losing streak we're on(sarcasm). I'm going to sleep now.

Also after a quick reread Nerwen overcame Nog as my third suspect.

Trying to decide if I should vote.

Actually yeah not really anything will change my mind on this...

++Sally

reasons I stated yesterday haven't changed didn't like How she voted Gil If I was her top suspect the whole time why not vote me? Looks like she just wanted to look like another befuddled ordo.

[Coppermirror]

I'm not intending to vote super early toDay. My choice is to either vote before I sleep, or get up unpleasantly early in the morning to read things through and vote before I go out for the day, and this time I think I'll do the latter, since things are getting pretty bad. But even with that I'll still be having to vote 5 or 6 hours before the deadline.

[McCaber]

Anyway, a look at Morsul the Dark.

Post 8: Initial thoughts of all the players with absolutely nothing to go on. If he has a thought on someone, it's suspicion. I guess as it should be on day 1.
Post 16: Wants to avoid knee-jerk reactions for the game. Let's see how well that went.
Post 17: comment on how many players there are.
Post 19: correction on the gender of Gil.
Post 22: Pom looks good based on her initial statements.
Post 24: Kath might be a cobbler based on singing about the Wonderful Wizard of Oz.
Post 59: Explains his suspicion of Kath.
Post 60: Votes Kath.

Post 152: Celebration about the ranger save and apologies for low participation.
Post 156: Thoughts on all the players. Says to watch CM. This is where he posts his contentious statement saying that if I'm hypothetically innocent, then Greenie might be a wolf. This immediately gets jumped on because of poor syntax, but I understood what he was trying to say.
Post 159: Continuation on thoughts. Says Kath was too quiet, I'm suspicious, and Nog is contradictory. Rolls his eyes at Nerwen.
Post 161: Closing thoughts. Rikae and Sally seem innocent. For all he just posted a big list, I feel like he didn't really say anything here.
Post 164: Suspects Lottie the most for voting for Pom when she did.
Post 165: If Lottie's a wolf, that may clear Nogrod because she's attacking him a bit. Again, strange. When a wolf slips up, often another wolf is one of the ones to catch it and criticize it.
Post 167: DL is at a bad time for him.
Post 172: Explains suspecting Lottie, as it's all in the timing. Explains his statement about me in 156.
Post 177: Says that his logic makes sense to him, and not to anyone else because helicopters. Now that's just weird, no matter what posting style you have.
Post 234: Again says his statement about me was a hypothetical.
Post 240: Votes Ozban for voting for him.
Post 246: Again explains his hypothetical.

Post 280: Feels good about a cobbler dying and bad about lynching an innocent. Says he's probably going to get lynched, and that he'll look into those who voted for him and Ozban.
Post 294: Explaining why he won't be there, while saying there'd be confusion if the wolves killed him. As bad as I think that sounds, it makes sense. He was under really heavy fire the previous day.
Post 312: Votes Rikae out of nowhere for being unhelpful. Now this one gives me a lot of pause.
Post 329: Explains why he voted Rikae. Hearing his reasons still doesn't make me like them any more.
Post 356: Again explains his vote. He just keeps digging...
Post 360: deeper...
Post 377: and deeper...

Post 434: Says the Boro wagon on the previous day sort of stinks.
Post 439: Draws parallels between Gil and himself, saying that they're both easy lynches but the wrong choice. I'm not going to lie, it looks a lot like he hopped right on what he thought would be an easy bandwagon earlier and now is trying to ninja himself out of it. And comparing him with a known innocent Gil would be a brilliant tactic for a wolf to take there.
Post 480: Shock that Sally didn't vote for him. If he is a wolf, I'm not sure he'd draw attention to a packmate like that.
Post 482: Votes Sally for not voting him, while still suspecting Lottie.
Post 487: Again attacks Sally for voting for Gil.
Post 489: Elaborates his position on Lottie. She leapt on his hypothetical way back in day 2 and he's holding a grudge for it. Also she voted for a wizard.

Post 498: Generic "I'm here".
Post 512: Has to work, probably won't vote. Suspects Lottie, Sally, Nerwen, and Nogrod.
Post 513: Clarification.
Post 516: Answering Inzil's questions.
Post 517: Again attacks Sally.
Post 521: Answers my question (commenting on this feels really meta, for some reason).
Post 524: Sarcastically snaps at Rikae, votes Sally for changing who her top suspect was, even though just a moment ago he had Lottie as his own most wanted and voted for someone else.

So yeah, he might be innocent and confused, but from here he honestly looks pretty bad. Maybe after his attempt at bandwagoning Rikae didn't pan out, he switched to Sally? I feel like some parallels are there.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Actually yeah not really anything will change my mind on this...

++Sally

reasons I stated yesterday haven't changed didn't like How she voted Gil If I was her top suspect the whole time why not vote me? Looks like she just wanted to look like another befuddled ordo.

Maybe... except it seems pretty clear she decided to vote him specifically because of his
posting yesterDay. It's not as if one is committed to picking a single suspect and sticking to him throughout the game.

[Nerwen]

Oh yes, Morsul looks quite bad. He's right about comparing himself to Gil, though. It's the same problem, basically.

[McCaber]

I swear, whoever came up with this "post about the people beneath you" idea just wants me to erode my fingers at this keyboard. Giving me the two most prolific ones in the thread, grumble grumble. Anyway, about Nerwen:

Post 27: IC post about Pom
Post 28: Yells at G55 about butting her head in.
Post 34: IC at Rikae and Morsul saying they're fulla hooey.
Post 37: IC at Sally.
Post 41: "
Post 46: "
Post 48: "
Post 54: Gets serious, wonders what Morsul saw when he accused Kath.
Post 57: Goes at CM for suspecting Boro based on nothing.
Post 63: IC about Bane.
Post 64: Says Morsul might have a point, but only barely.
Post 68: Defends her suspicion of CM.
Post 69: Defends herself against Brinn.
Post 74: Says Gil looks bad for hopping on a bandwagon.
Post 77: More against Gil.
Post 80: Defends herself, and attacks Gil again.
Post 85: More on Gil.
Post 88: Defends herself for attacking Gil.

Post 168: Lays out the options why Pom might have panicked. CM or I are innocent, CM or I are wolves, or CM's the cobbler. Yep, those are indeed the options there.
Post 174: Asks if Pom got bussed. Says Inzil or Lottie are likelier to be wolves than Sally in that case, but it's more likely that the wolves tried to save her.
Post 176: Wonders where Morsul's getting his logic from. Which is a very sensible question, as based on my previous post it's obvious I have no idea.
Post 180: More against Morsul.
Post 181: Says that CM might not be a wolf, because of Pom's pronouns. A weak point.
Post 183: Admits it's a weak point.
Post 184: Questions CM about other people finding her suspicious.
Post 188: Early analysis of Nogrod. Her conclusion: that some looks pretty standard for him, but some looks bad.
Post 189: Criticism of Brinn and Gil for calling her defensive.
Post 190: More pronouns.
Post 193: More wondering about Nog's intentions.
Post 196: Votes Nogrod and says Volo needs looking at. One confirmed fact, right there!

Post 287: More wondering about Nog.
Post 288: Says killing Volo was a weird thing for the wolves to do, and wants people to try and see why.
Post 297: Her own Volalyis. Rikae and Boro need some looking at according to it.
Post 300: Yells at Rikae for voting herself.
Post 302: Votes Rikae. Really weird vote there, but by itself it doesn't mean much.
Post 306: Explains why she voted Rikae.
Post 309: More explanation.
Post 311: Her thoughts on what Nog meant. It looks like a decent interpretation, as far as I can tell.
Post 315: Analyzing the Ozwagon. Basically, since Oz wasn't a wolf, it's likely that Morsul would be as he was the other one on the block.
Post 316: Explains why she voted Rikae again.
Post 325: Still really weirded out by what Rikae keeps saying.
Post 337: See above.
Post 338: See above.
Post 341: See above.
Post 342: See above.
Post 344: See above. This whole exchange is hella strange to me. Like, I just don't get it.
Post 346: Enought about Rikae. Finally. Says to look at Greenie/Boro.
Post 348: More about Rikae.
Post 349: "
Post 355: Threatens to ragequit herself.
Post 357: Comments about Morsul for voting Rikae. A really weird exchance, considering the amount of trouble she just went through to suspect her.

Post 438: Says Rikae is likely innocent and apologizes.
Post 442: Says that if Gil is innocent and if it was her defence of Rikae what tipped them off, then Lottie was a more logical target that night, so probably it was either random that Brinn died or a misdirection. I think that's what she's getting at, anyway.
Post 445: Says that Brinn might have hinted at dreaming about Nog.
Post 448: More spats with Rikae, this time apologetic.
Post 449: Maybe Brinn knew that either Nog was a wolf or Rikae was innocent.
Post 451: Says Gil only looks more suspicious after he said Brinn might have dreamed him.
Post 458: Exchanges with Gil. Says that he might be a framed innocent with a paranoid fixation on her.
Post 461: Brinn wanted Gil to be lynched. But she might have dreamed Nogrod as per post 445.
Post 463: More about how weird Gil is being.
Post 467: Gil looks more evil than paranoid.
Post 470: Says that she didn't start the fire, it was always burning since Gil started it.

Post 502: Says she's pressed for time today and might not be able to make an analysis.
Post 503: Lottie thought Gil and Nerwen are both wolves, she thinks.
Post 504: Yes, post 503 had the correct interpretation.
Post 514: Says that for all Gil was innocent, he looked really bad, so IDing wolves could be really tough.
Post 527: Explains Sally's vote yesterday and that no, Morsul, it doesn't look that suspicious.
Post 528: Morsul does indeed look bad.

I'm not gonna lie, I find it really hard to get a read off of Nerwen based on this. She feels innocent, but a few things like that whole Rikae exchange and a few of the things she said yesterday just read really weirdly to me. She has posted quite a bit, but not really said a lot.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Also after a quick reread Nerwen overcame Nog as my third suspect.

Reasons for this?

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Actually yeah not really anything will change my mind on this...

++Sally

reasons I stated yesterday haven't changed didn't like How she voted Gil If I was her top suspect the whole time why not vote me? Looks like she just wanted to look like another befuddled ordo.

To be fair, do you not see how your own vote, coming right on the heels of Kath's with no previous suspicion of Sally, looks rather dodgy itself?

[Rikae]

I'm not liking this "analyze the two people below you" plan. It was Cop's idea, and it means I'm analyzing Cop; it also means that six people are being analyzed by wizards and that will take up most of the day, giving them a chance to look helpful while doing little. These kinds of analyses are only useful when there is a conclusion, and it's too easy, this way, to analyze without coming to any real conclusion at all (after all, it's just a rote thing, right? Just what you're supposed to do?)

Perhaps we should analyze people we find possibly suspicious? Radical idea, I know.

[Rikae]

That said, I'll go along and analyze Sally and Cop.

I hope people are going to compare the way the same person is analyzed by the two people who are supposed to cover him/her.

I really don't like this format, though. It isn't helpful to read a bland summary of every post a person made with no commentary. Couldn't people just mention things that they consider worth commenting on? That, after all, is the sort of thing that makes the analysis reflect on the analyzer as well; it is also much more readable than:
#9 - banter
#13 - more banter
#57 - lots of arguing
etc.

I mean, really.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

reasons I stated yesterday haven't changed didn't like How she voted Gil If I was her top suspect the whole time why not vote me? Looks like she just wanted to look like another befuddled ordo.

But she didn't say you were her 'top suspect all the time'. Just because she suspects you throughout the game doesn't mean she isn't allowed to look at anyone else, or think anyone else is posting suspiciously.

[Loslote]

Okay, there's only ten of us left, guys - we must be able to narrow this down to some extent.

Innocent, probably
Cop
Zil
Sally
Rikae
Lottie (in my list, anyway)

Under my radar
Kath
Cabbie

Suspect, to some degree
Morsul
Nerwen
Nog

...okay then. Well. I'll take a close look at Kath and Cabbie, but for the most part, those are the three who have seemed off all game. That also reminds me suddenly of how Morsul flipped between the other two in that list for which one to suspect, then (without explaining the logic) chose Nerwen. It seems to me that he was trying to include wolf-on-wolf, but didn't quite commit enough.

I would say, lynch one of those three toNight, and we'll probably be pretty likely to catch us a Wizard.

Like I said, I'll look at Kath and Cabbie when I get back from class, just to make sure I'm not overlooking anything, but I'm pretty sure this is the way things lie at the moment.

[Rikae]

Really? This little posting, and most of it arguing with Morsul? On a day like today?

Well, anyway, Sally.

She started off with a lot of strange posts - I thought so at the time - implying she doesn't know anything about trolls. Really. Yes, it was banter, but I think everyone here knows Tolkien's trolls have pockets! I have no idea what that is or why she'd do it, unless maybe as some sort of wizard hint to the cobbler or... er, maybe a hunter hint? Purse troll? I don't even know.

Hm, indeed:

Originally Posted by Sally

We're trolls! We don't need pockets or purses.

Anyway, on day one there is really a lot more banter and no, I'm not going to give a list of the post numbers with "banter" after each one. Yeah, that really helps us find wizards.

It is worth noting that she's the first to comment on Pom's "keep on eye on Cop voters" thing with:

Originally Posted by Sally

Is that irony I smell, or is someone cooking bacon?

Of course she also votes for Pom. Weird, though:

Originally Posted by Sally

++Pom

Because I just can't get over her obvious attempt to bandwagon.

Granted, Volo just admitted to doing the same thing, but that'll be an issue we can address toMorrow....

Obvious attempt to bandwagon is a weird thing to say when it was a cross vote.

Day two she suspects Volo, Gil and Morsul - now, if Morsul is innocent this would be a nice trio for a wizard to try to lynch Two "easy lynches" (I'm still very wary of Morsul's calling himself that, though) and one cobbler who is probably also an easy lynch.

Okay, I have to leave, but I'll have more later.

[Rikae]

I really feel like several people want us to lynch Morsul today. Like three. I have a feeling all our wolves are in secure positions right now.

[satansaloser2005]

I will be around toDay, but probably not for another hour or two. Stupid weather. I must leave now, but I'll be back when I can. *scurries*

[Coppermirror]

Rest of Inzil and Kath analysis, going from page 10.

Inzil

#370 - Agrees with Brin about how unlikely Rikae is to be a wizard. Doesn't see Morsul's Rikae as a wizard scenario as likely, and reminds him that he was saying he thought she might be the purseholder earlier. (There does seem to be a decent amount of interaction with Morsul in Inzil's posts...Overall I'd say that they're unlikely both to be wizards, so it's probably one or them or none of them.)

#390 - In response to my comment about how we shouldn't lynch Rikae, says he isn't going to vote for Rikae. "Leave her to the Seer". (So, a suggestion to the Seer to dream of Rikae. Although he didn't really seem to think before that Rikae could be a wizard, so wouldn't dreaming of her be a bit of a waste? A wizard might really want to encourage a dream of an innocent.)

- then talks about how Morsul seems to be backpedaling.
- and Kath's #383 post strikes him as odd, like something he would say as a baddie himself.

#395 - After Brin talks about why she's suspecting Boro, he points out that Gil is suspicious and had voted Boro. He can't decide whether Nerwen's a wizard or an ordo, and doesn't find Nog particularly suspicious and says that's cause for worry in itself.

#398 - Not impressed with Morsul's vote. Talks about Morsul, Gil, and Boro as voting options. Wasn't suspicious of Boro until his Greenie vote.

#412 - Votes Gil, agrees with me about being unwilling to vote Boro after Gil's vote for him.

#440 - Thought that Gil already looked dodgy, hence his vote the previous Day. Wonders why the wizards didn't kill him instead of Brin.

#453, arguing with Gil over an inconsistency in the latter's interpretation of the previous Day.

#483 - Thinks Gil is an easy pick but hasn't done anything to make himself look better that Day. Finds Kath's vote interesting and can sort of see her reasoning, but doesn't know what to make of it yet. At #485, votes Gil.

Kath

#383 - Is back, and doesn't think it's a surprise that Volo was killed, given how Seerish she thought he sounded the other Day.

#392 - Irritation over the wizard of Oz thing.

#399 - Wants to know if Rikae officially quit and if so when she'd be mod-killed. And then #400, wants Sally to do a tally of votes.

#421 - Votes Morsul for the "innocent Cab" thing and unsatisfactory explanations. But Boro is lynched because he got 4 votes first. Could be a deliberate wizard choice to save Morsul by delaying vote placement, but it's probably too hard to tell, given that I doubt Kath was lying about having only just shown up. She only had about 20 minutes or so to backread and vote.

#473 - posts about concerns about Sally. Then at #479, votes Sally.

Originally Posted by Kath

I think the way she was around Gil - half defending him and then voting for him was odd. Also I'd rather the Day didn't end up just being the whole village bandwaggoning onto one vote.

And that's everything going up til toDay. Conclusions to follow.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I really feel like several people want us to lynch Morsul today. Like three.

Including you, as well? Just saying.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

I apologize for my quietness. The severe weather passed us by with no damage, thankfully, but it created some inconvenience. That plus a busy workday equals little time for WW. I'm going to at least vote, if nothing else. Yes, I'm looking at Morsul, primarily because he looks worse than any one else. The martyr-syndrome coupled with what appears to be hypocrisy about Sally's vote as compared to his own.

[Coppermirror]

There is nothing which stands out clearly in Inzil's behaviour as suspicious. If he's a wizard, he's playing an exceptionally careful and subtle game. I'm still inclined to think he's probably innocent. Things could only really change here depending on further information.

Of Kath, there is painfully, painfully little content to judge her by. (I'm sure she's busy IRL, regardless of guilt or innocence.) From the little shown, she seems pretty reasonable, but that doesn't really mean much.

Going by her posts, I don't think it's likely for there to be a Kath-Morsul wizard pack going on here. Unless the Wizard of Oz cobbler stuff was a clever plan, and I don't think it was, especially since it was still getting brought up in later Days.

I should have voted about 15 minutes ago, yelp. I'm thinking of voting Nog or Morsul. I wish there'd been more discussion toDay.

Suspicions list:

Not especially worried about:
Loslote
Rikae
Inzil

Worried about:
Kath
McCaber
Nerwen
Sally - in light of people's posts lately.

Really worried about:
Morsul
Nog

People are right that Morsul would be an easy lynch for wizards to push for, so we do need to be cautious not to have another Gil type lynch. But then, Morsul really is suspicious. I may well be voting for him in a minute. It's down to him and Nog because I need to vote ASAP.

[Coppermirror]

No more time, so:

++Morsul

because he's ten kinds of suspicious, much more suspicious than anyone else. I understand we might be in for Gil#2 here, but I can't not vote for someone who's this suspicious only because of that.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Including you, as well? Just saying.

No. I don't want to lynch him anymore. It seems too much as if he's been chosen for the purpose.

Honestly, after Pom got lynched for the same sort of thing, do you really think I would say that meaning me? I now have a feeling this day is being choreographed, and you are one of the choreographers.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

That also reminds me suddenly of how Morsul flipped between the other two in that list for which one to suspect, then (without explaining the logic) chose Nerwen. It seems to me that he was trying to include wolf-on-wolf, but didn't quite commit enough.

Sort of like Gil yesterday?

I'm tending to agree with Rikae now- this is all feeling wrong.

Btw, sorry about lack of participation toDay. Couldn't help it.

[Rikae]

As a matter of fact I'm not going to go along with this plan. If it's not a wizard's plan, it's certainly helpful to them.

I will not vote for Morsul for the reasons I just mentioned.

Thoughts on everybody:


Loslote - Her posting often seems iffy, but she did give Pom her second vote. I don't think a wizard would have considered it necessary to bus Pom at that point.
Rikae - Ordo, seer-dreamed as far as I can tell.
Inzil - Looking very bad to me now. He's been flying under the radar (even though he had 3rd most posts!) and generally seems to be poking at people without getting his hands dirty, hoping for something to stick. Voted for Gil the day before Brinn's death as well - a safe vote at the time.
Kath - Really under the radar. Caused a lot of confusion with her early banter, but overall her posting doesn't seem suspicious. It doesn't seem particularly innocent either. Very short, largely uncontroversial posts. Safe. A little too safe.
McCaber - His "bandwagon" on Cop with Pom shouldn't make him, or Cop for that matter, look any better. Pom's "keep an eye on Cop voters" makes him look slightly better, however, I am really not pleased with his analysis toDay (night?) - a lot of text, not a lot of content.
Nerwen
Sally - looking pretty innocent, actually, mostly due to her vote. Shasta likely wasn't killed because the wizards hoped he'd be modfired, come to think of it, and Sally may be alive now because of Brinn's comment bringing attention to her (I doubt very highly that Brinn actually dreamed of her).
Morsul - too often put forward as an easy lynch candidate by people who themselves don't look too innocent. He could still be evil. His posting, however, is erratic and controversial in a way that either an innocent or a wizard could possibly be, but that, in an innocent, would attract wizardly attention. I will not be voting for him today.
Nog - The events thus far have a Nog-mastermind feel to them. Particularly had the impression he was part of a plot to frame me after Volo's death - him more so than Nerwen. She is persistent enough to make herself look better, while Nog puts something out there and then sort of lets it gain momentum while backing off himself. He is also not nearly as active, as serious about wolf-hunting, as an innocent Nog usually is. Innocent Nog is persistent - this Nog is not. I don't like it.
Nerwen - I'm keeping an eye on her but as I've said, I actually think she'd be a bit more laid back if she were evil. If she is evil, she's doing a good job - staying involved in the controversy while making herself look better rather than worse.
Coppermirror - Just the same old bad feeling about the way she makes long posts with little content, and now has basically prompted the entire village to do the same. It may be a style thing, though.

Looking worst right now:
Inzil
Nogrod
Kath

Iffy:
Coppermirror
McCaber
Nerwen

Ok for now:
Lottie
Sally
Morsul
Nerwen
Rikae (duh)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog - The events thus far have a Nog-mastermind feel to them. Particularly had the impression he was part of a plot to frame me after Volo's death - him more so than Nerwen. She is persistent enough to make herself look better, while Nog puts something out there and then sort of lets it gain momentum while backing off himself. He is also not nearly as active, as serious about wolf-hunting, as an innocent Nog usually is. Innocent Nog is persistent - this Nog is not. I don't like it.

This makes a lot of sense to me. What I keep remembering is how people keep bringing up suspicion against him, but it keeps being forgotten within a few hours. I don't really know what to make of that, but I think it's high time we pay some attention to him.

Nerwen - I'm keeping an eye on her but as I've said, I actually think she'd be a bit more laid back if she were evil. If she is evil, she's doing a good job - staying involved in the controversy while making herself look better rather than worse.

That...actually makes sense. I think she reads evil, but...probably a Nerwolf wouldn't. She makes my head hurt.

Coppermirror - Just the same old bad feeling about the way she makes long posts with little content, and now has basically prompted the entire village to do the same. It may be a style thing, though.

I don't know, I've seen this sort of suggestion a lot from a player who isn't quite *new* any more, has gotten a feel for the game, and wants to try a new strategy to catch wolves easier - and that generally comes when they're innocent, not evil. Cop's been feeling good to me, and I highly doubt she's a wizard.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'm tending to agree with Rikae now- this is all feeling wrong.

Btw, sorry about lack of participation toDay. Couldn't help it.

My words exactly, both sentences.

And top the latter case, I've had crazy days for the last ones so I haven't even read through yesterDay - and it's like 1½ hours to the DL and I'm actually feeling more dead-tired and empty-headed than enthusiastic...

But I have that nagging feeling too; maybe the baddies have been just totally at ease all the game (except Pom, of course) and killing Brinn was just extremely lucky (nad thus had nothing to do with whom they thought to be the seer)?

Okay. I'll try to do something.


EDIT: X'd with Rikae & Lottie

[Rikae]

Interesting thing from Nog the day I self-voted:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Rikae is the purseholder this is what she wants...

Of course Nog would be aware that the purseholder is better night-killed - that lynching the purseholder could lead to a second innocent death.

Would he, as a wizard, be worried about his own safety in that case? Or would he have thought I'd be hunting Nerwen, or someone else?

[Kath]

I'm here and I'm reading and I can be here til deadline. Any chance someone could do a vote count while I'm perusing?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

No. I don't want to lynch him anymore. It seems too much as if he's been chosen for the purpose.

Honestly, after Pom got lynched for the same sort of thing, do you really think I would say that meaning me? I now have a feeling this day is being choreographed, and you are one of the choreographers.

So you put me as an instigator against Morsul, but you're "iffy" on Coppermirror and Nerwen, who have also been for his lynching? And the former actually voted him already.

Trouble is, I really haven't had a chance to look closely at others. I have misgivings about Nerwen, and to a lesser extent Sally, though the latter has to a large extent been mitigated by the fact that I haven't trusted Morsul, and he's been after her. Morsul, as you say, has been all over the place as usual, but "that's just Morsul" shouldn't always be an out. Unfortunately, I need to vote now, or not vote at all.

++Morsul

Do as you like, and good luck.

x/d with Rikae and Kath

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Of course Nog would be aware that the purseholder is better night-killed - that lynching the purseholder could lead to a second innocent death.

Would he, as a wizard, be worried about his own safety in that case? Or would he have thought I'd be hunting Nerwen, or someone else?

He might have thought it was still a better risk.

[Nogrod]

I got to check Brinn's posting and the few notes I had made on Volo.

With the information we have now it looks pretty improbable the Wizards killed either of them because they looked seerish to them. Which I think is pretty wild indeed, well, odd.

I've been a wolf often enough to know there is no other concern that would override the search for the seer with the lupines - and the gravest sacrifices (making themselves look bad the next Day) are needed when there is a suspicon about who the seer is (which comes from any unwarranted or firm suspicion for one of them).

Sure the pressure and the need depend on any given situation, but that is a kind of basic fact, like the law of gravity for WW-games.

And therefore the choices the Wizers have made puzzle me to no end now.

Also, going back there showed quite clearly Rikae is innocent.

[Rikae]

Looking over days 1 and 2, I see Nog defended Pom early after her Cop-wagon remark and on day 2, explained his last minute vote as an attempt to see if a "Prince Charming" would rescue her, which would be a "jackpot".

This makes no sense, though. If Pom had been saved, we wouldn't know her role. He doesn't claim he was very confident that she was evil, only that he was "okay" with lynching her. He also explains how it would have benefited him as a baddie to wolf-on-wolf vote at that point, which is true, but he also could have anticipated that his vote would look like too obvious a rescue attempt to be evil, excusing it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

So you put me as an instigator against Morsul, but you're "iffy" on Coppermirror and Nerwen, who have also been for his lynching? And the former actually voted him already.

Yep. I explained why I found them generally less suspicious, too. You seemed, throughout the game, unwilling to get your hands dirty.

And actually, I didn't put Nerwen in the iffy list at all.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Would he, as a wizard, be worried about his own safety in that case? Or would he have thought I'd be hunting Nerwen, or someone else?

Maybe I'm just tired and thick-headed right at the moment, but why would I have said that aloud were I a wizard? What would have been the point? "Hey you trolls, this person is the hunter!" Wouldn't that have been something rather left unsaid as the wizards would like to have the hunter lynched rather than run on her/him at Night?

Yes, I admit it wasn't probably the smartest thing to speculate upon it even as a troll (if the Wizards hadn't come to think about that possibility) - but we trolls are dumb you know. And you can't actually blame me or anyone else to have been a little bit annoyed by your burst there and trying to make our minds about what on earth you were doing and why.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror
Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.
Saw this as I went through yesterDay and it interested me to see if she'd hold to it. She is still focused on Nog with Morsul a close second so this is consistent. But, and it's an important but, she then votes Morsul having not actually mentioned specifically why he is suspicious. He is 'much more suspicious than anyone else' but no reasoning as to why.


By sally - Originally Posted by Brinniel
Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.
So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....
Nooo, I would say it is the 'if it came between him and Rikae' bit that's important. She is making a very clear statement that she won't vote Rikae. I'd say she was the dream there.

Plus there was then the statement that Gil was unlikely to be a wizard as Brinn would have voted Gil if she had dreamed him a wizard - followed by a vote for Gil with no further information on why.

From that read-through sally and Cop aren't looking great. I'm wary with Morsul. I still think he is suspicious for that comment the other Day. However, I haven't looked at him in particular recently and I wonder if I'm being swayed by that original knee-jerk reaction. I will have another look at him.

[Nogrod]

Rikae: I see you're building towards a campaign, but sorry, I'm not in a mood for a fight. Another day I might have. But what I can say is that you're wasting your energy.

I realised now that Brinn couldn't have been someone the Wizards thought was the seer, you know why? Because people she suspected more or less at all (and voted D2&3) are known innocents now (well, one of them aka me is only known to me for sure).

If I'd been a Wizard, do you really think I would have been advocating that interpretation as the only one whose role you don't know in Brinn's list is me? Why should I have sticked on the point that wolves kill those they think are Wizards if I was myself one who had killed people at Night just because of that? And yes, even after being the last one left...

That's enough said of me toDay, I think.

[Nerwen]

Kath, as I understood it, Sally was doubtful about Gil having been dreamed, but went on to vote him because of his suspicious posting. As I said to Morsul, I don't really have a problem with that- though of course that may be because it mirrors my own reactions at the time.

x'd with Nog

[Rikae]

Actually, this whole "they did it too, why don't you suspect them?" thing Inzil just did looks somewhat innocentish.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Maybe I'm just tired and thick-headed right at the moment, but why would I have said that aloud were I a wizard? What would have been the point? "Hey you trolls, this person is the hunter!" Wouldn't that have been something rather left unsaid as the wizards would like to have the hunter lynched rather than run on her/him at Night?

Because you were saying so as a case that I should be lynched (and even, by your later post, why you might vote for me).

Kath made some good points about Copper just now. She has indeed not been giving much explanation for her votes. I wish I knew whether it was her style at all: I know as a wolf I'd be reluctant to vote like that: if anything, I'd be overly concerned with consistency (see Inzil talking about how he'd voted Gil before, even when Gil was looking like a seer dream).

Nerwen and Nogrod, what do you think of Inzil?

[Nerwen]

I am a bit uneasy with Cop, though- even though "walls of text" is her style, she's been doing a lot of it, even for her. And her theories early yesterDay on how the wolves might conduct them- "bussing" their "comrade" Gil without an attempt to save him- could be a sort of pre-explanation for why nobody did, in case people started to wonder later in the Day. Or not. There's little concrete against her.

x'd with Rikae.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae: I see you're building towards a campaign, but sorry, I'm not in a mood for a fight. Another day I might have. But what I can say is that you're wasting your energy.

I'm not building toward anything, I'm just trying to find a wizard. Aren't you? Sorry for going after you when you're tired, but if I sense evil I'm not going to look the other way.

Originally Posted by Nog

I realised now that Brinn couldn't have been someone the Wizards thought was the seer, you know why? Because people she suspected more or less at all (and voted D2&3) are known innocents now (well, one of them aka me is only known to me for sure).

If I'd been a Wizard, do you really think I would have been advocating that interpretation as the only one whose role you don't know in Brinn's list is me? Why should I have sticked on the point that wolves kill those they think are Wizards if I was myself one who had killed people at Night just because of that? And yes, even after being the last one left...

That's enough said of me toDay, I think.

Oh, because you would have that explanation all ready to go, perhaps? As for a reason, you do need to be consistent with what you were saying about the Volo kill, I suppose.

Of course wolves don't actually do that, and you know it. If wolves just killed someone who suspected one of them strongly every night in hopes of getting a seer, they'd be nicely showing the village the path to their door. Certainly every time I've been a wolf there has been much debate over whether someone is really a seer or bluffing or just doesn't give reasons in general etc. etc., because we wouldn't want to needlessly incriminate ourselves.

[Nogrod]

I'd say both McCaber and Copper look (or try to look) helpful while not being that too much. I feel some opportunism there and haven't actually lost my gut distrust for McCaber form the first Day.

Morsul is talking himself into blind alleys and at worst contradicting himself. I'm afraid it is also a playing-style issue (like with Gil). He sounds too much the wrong candidate while and especially because being the "easy vote". Here I agree with Rikae who said there might be too much readiness to go for him...

Inzil and Kath I think no one has suspected - which would fit well the scenario where the Wizards had no special candidate for the seer and went for Brinn with pure luck. But that is not exactly a case against them to be sure.

Lottie and Sally creep me and Nerwen I'm worried about (although quite a lot against lynching her right now).

Rikae most probably is an innocent.


So little to say so late in the game...