Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Nogrod]

Macalaure: I'm getting a feeling that you're playing a much less intelligently that I know you could. Now c'mon. Why is this? Do I have to twist this from an ironbar to you (sorry about the Finnish idiom)?

And would anybody explain to me why I, if I am the last wolf, should have voted Celuien? I not only voted her (when only morm has voted for her), but pretty actively urged everyone else to do so as well. Do you really think I would spoil Celuien's fun like that just to win, especially when she was my partner-in-evil?

Well you really could spoil it to your own good (and in the end to your shared victory)! Arranging the lynch of your partner in evil would make you look soooo gooood! No one would suspect you and you could sail to the victory through the next Dances. There's no better shield against a lynch than being the one who arranged a lynching of a wolf! Unfortunately there are some "veterans" around to see that kind of bluff-possibility.

I do not say that the idea of a wolf going for his mate is the best case there is in principle (although not impossible or even unfrequent - as my forefathers have some experiences of it) but your reaction to the suggestions of it feel like they reveal something. So why are you, fex. wishing to cling to certain people now as you're under a threat, trying to befriend them and wishing to target others? Isn't that the wolvish tactics par excellance: trying to be nice to many people enough and pin-pointing your suspicions to the few (which you as a wolf know to be innocent). I know I have laid many suspicions on many of you people out there, but that's for the common good. Fex. I do not suspect Folwren so much any more as her defence after my "attack" seemed to be genuine enough. That is the way we can make some reasonable stances on one another: suspicion and returns to them... You're not making the most soothing ones now Mac, sorry to say that as it would have been nice to see you as our hero lastDance...

Just looking at the way you're more trying to find allies than getting to the truth I might quote yourself with morm:

First off, I am not using you as a scapegoat, because I have never called you suspicious at all! In fact, you're a firm member of my own current innocents list. I only used you to show why Nogrod's reasoning fails in my mind. If I am suspicious by his reasoning, then so should you. Yet, you are not. I guess I didn't make that clear

So what is this if not only trying to befriend people? I know you enough Macalaure and I know you would not sink this low as to try to talk people to your side if there wasn't something fishy behind it. Were you innocent, you would have acted more graciously and thought about the truth and the best of the village as the first things, not the view of some influential villagers on you yourself...

I'm not loosing my grip on the Valier - Naria -theory as I think it still plausible, but you Mac will top my suspicions right now.

I'm so sorry if I'm wrong but I'm waiting for you to settle this thing with reasonable points before I start to trust you again...

And just before I go to sleep, if anyone has time to look at Rikae, that would be good. I mean, if Celuien the wolf has been so adamant about saying that the kills at Night are safe-ones, so is there something that would speak the contrary?

[Macalaure]

What I see at the moment is:
- a safe wolf kill
- one wolf whose play was concentrated on not offending anyone and not drawing the attention of many people on her
- another safe wolf kill

My assumption is that the second wolf plays similarly as Celuien, therefore my high suspicion of Eomer. He has not said anything that I could point out and proof his wolvishness with. He remains in the back of the scene and only makes some points about people who are already suspected by others - like Celuien did.

Of course, my assumption might be wrong, but I think I'll give it a try.


I'm not sure what to think of the Valier-Naria-conspiracy yet.


Nogrod, befriending? If I thought that morm would fall for something like that I would really be playing unintelligently. morm voted me with a reason that I think was founded on a misunderstanding. This I wanted to tell him.

Maybe it's just my perception of it, but I really feel like you are twisting the truth about me. This is what I would expect you to do as a cobbler (therefore my suspicion of Cobrod): as wordy as usual, elegantly bending the truth to entangle everybody in it, friendly and flattering to not make too many people vote you, only aggressive when you are able to make a really good case. I tried to pin you down over the night, but it's not possible for me. If cobbler you are, then you are a frightening one, if not, I'm sorry about my suspicions.

And of course I know that backstabbing a fellow wolf is a decent tactic, but it's also a little unfair one. If it is foreseeable that a fellow goes down, then it's understandable, but the way I urged her lynching, it would have been a little mean, wouldn't it?

[Farael]

It's quite simple if you look at it... Mormegil was not going to be here during the day, so he voted for his fellow wolf, thinking that a vote that early on was never going to "catch on" anyway, and he could use it later as an excuse for him 'not being a wolf'

You guys are all blind (and quite a bit daft) if you haven't seen this already

++Mormegil


By the way, Folwren... it's now Dance 3 and the game is getting on, so there are now some clues to be picked up... like the one about Mormegil.

I still think my plan had merit.. .the lynching of Celuien was a stroke of good fortune, but if not we would have wasted three lynches. Perhaps it'll work on another game. For now, I shall rest better knowing that there is only one wolf left to worry about.

[Folwren]

Yes, thank you, Farael. I am aware that this is the third dance and that there are probably a great many clues to be picked up on, but I regret to say that I have been too busy to read anything that has happened since the 22nd, except that Rikae was killed and that Celuien was guilty.

-- Folwren

[mormegil]

Farael, you belong on the X-files with all the conspiracy theorists . HEY EVERYBODY MORMEGIL INTELLIGENTLY SPOTTED THE WOLF...HE MUST BE GUILTY LET'S GET HIM! Now we've got you Mr. Mormegil, let's take off this mask and see who is really under there...Why it Old Man Withers "And I would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling kids"

I believe that you are sincere, if not a cobbler but I don't suspect you of lycanthropy. I really believe there is something with Naria and Valier. It seems that a good amount of us, at least Nogrod and I feel this way, though I believe there are others. Mac is also interesting, ergo my vote for him. I may switch it to Naria of Valier...actually that might make sense because they seem to be a bit of a team though Naria is more likely the wolf because my gut feeling was that Valier was the first to initiate the team work between the two. Honestly I'm going on straight instincts and feelings on this one, though I think I'm right because I did the same with Celuien and I nailed her.

[Naria]

Hmm, out of toDance's discussions so far Farael's argument against Morm is holding alot more water(in reflection of what I had stated about Morm yesterDance) than any others so far. I suspected him yesterDance and still do.

And to the Seer wannabe, for myself at least, I can say that you are barkin up the wrong tree. You are grasping at straws now and making a very feeble attempt for a double lynch.

I will cast my first vote. This may or may not change

++Morm

[Naria]

And what's up with your little rant there? I know you were trying to be humorous, but it came across like you just lost it there for a second

[Cailín]

I wonder at people so easily disregarding Rikae's death as another safe kill. She posted substantially, she had ideas, suspicions and contributed to all discussions. There may not be a lead there, but if a safe kill was in order, I can think of several candidates who fit the profile better than Rikae.

I'm also amazed at how easily suspicion has turned to Morm, whose instincts proved so right the last Dance. Would he have voted for his fellow wolf body in such a manner? Especially considering Celuien's vote for him during the first Dance, that was clearly not intended as a throwaway? I do not think so. I am not underestimating Mormegil here - but there are so many more likely wolf candidates.

The Valier - Naria thing… it is hard to say. My suspicions of Valier that led me to vote for her yesterDance have eased down a little, my suspicions of Naria have gone up. She sealed Celuien's death last Dance with her vote, but the vote was cast in a manner that - I believe - made everyone frown. And now with her vote for Mormegil… On the bright side, she has posted more than ever I remember.

I think Farael is displaying blatant cobblerish behaviour.

Nogrod, on the other hand, has made some very valid points and observations today.

Have to run - I will return later today with more thoughts.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with Cailín and would much prefer seeing Naria walking the plank than morm. That surely is understandable as the votes to morm have been given by one I somewhat suspect of cobblery and the other by one which I suspect could be our last wolf. 'nuff said.

So sad that no one has had time or will to go through Rikae's posting. I'm not having much time right now but will try to see at least her posts from the yesterDance.

[Nogrod]

Rikae's last Dance (this is a speedy one done in haste but I hope it reflects her points accurately enough)

#152 Gives the interpretation of Kitanna’s death to point towards her, Lal and morm. Suspects Valier. Thinks Farael might be a cobbler.

#158 Explains her suspicion on Farael being the cobbler.

#192 Restates her suspicion on Valier’s lycanthrophy and brings new arguments on Farael. Also brings forwards Folwren’s possible wolvishness based on my points about her not wishing to lie directly. Promises to look more closely on Holby and Celuien just because they are not making her suspicious. Thinks there is a connection between Farael’s possible guilt with that of Valier and Naria.

#209 Votes Macalaure after a short pondering of alternatives. Namely:

Well, it's down to the choice of Valier and Celuien; if I vote for Cel, it leaves the choice to Naria - which would be interesting.
Or I can vote for somebody else and leave Naria the choice of Valier or a double lynch.
Mac's case against Cel seems like a shot in the dark; sure, she's played it safe, but so have Holby, Cailin, Mac and Nogrod (who is his usual self, nothing more).
If Cel is innocent, Mac's your wolf.

#210 Seeing Naria’s vote on morm goes for a double-lynch by changing her vote to Celuien (Celuien and Valier).

#216 Says she is suspicious of Mac.

#217

And Naria saves Valier...remember that, folks.

So what to say?

She seemed to be heavily suspicious of Valier, Naria and Farael. A little less suspicious on Macalaure. Then she was killed. To lead us to these tracks then? Well, I must say that would be too elementary and obvious. But surely Rikae left tracks so it's not a trailless kill anyhow.

Celuien the wolf wished us to believe the kills were no tracks left behind ones (and so does Mac). Now how about they really point to just the thing they point to. It would have been quite a brilliant wolf-tactics to make that kind of "obvious" kills on those who were on the right tracks and then first trying to downplay that. And if suspected of that, they could always say they wouldn't be that stupid to leave this obvious trail to read.


Surely we have only one wolf left and all those indicated by Rikae can't be wolves. I'm also thinking that even as we would like to see the cobblers off, we should concentrate on the remaining wolf as killing her/him will end the game once and for all.

I hope to be back and believe I'll be able to do that. But just to make sure I will vote now.

++ Naria

After some thought I'm of the opinion that she might be the wolf more probably than Mac - and Mac would be very useful if innocent.

But as I said, this is subject to change as / if I come back.

[mormegil]

Noggie, it's nice to know that you are innocent. What I am seeing is exactly what I expected to see when this whole ball began namely; A small group working in unison against the main flow. Based on new posting and thought I've revised my theory about Valier a bit, though she's not innocent in my view she's looking a bit better than others: Naria to top the list, Mac, Farael are the others. Three people singing the same off beat tune with spurious logic as to why I'm guilty.

If it's remembered that one cobbler has no official idea who is who but one cobbler does. The wolf also has no clue who is who, officially, but if you take the general feel of those three or four I promise that at least two of the three are in there likely all three.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Remember the wolf has to kill someone. Rikae was hardly among the top-suspected players so why not her? We have the tendency to over-analyse things and cause severe brain attacks.

Anyway, I noticed in Celuien's post #94 that she makes use of the Funnily enough, Mac does that in post #232 and #239. All when trying to pacify potential adversaries. Desperate to appear friendly? It's something I've seen before and it flushed out a wolf. (Bad memories )

Anyway, I think that point, as trivial as it may seem, is far more substantial than anything Mac has raised against me. Yet I am apparently his top suspect. Of course, as Mac himself admits, there's nothing wolvish about me, and there's nothing I've said that he can point to and say 'Look at that!' But still.

Know what I think, Mac? You're scaremongering. You're eager to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy because you know how easy it is. When you repeat the assertion that I am very suspicious, but without any semblance of a reason why — other than that I'm supposedly playing like Celuien (?) — it makes me wonder.

I didn't responded to these suspicions before because I felt they were so beneath me, but if you're going to persist with this thought then I have to point it out.


Suspicious of: Naria, Valier, Mac, Farael.

Somewhat wary of: Mormegil, Holbytlass, Folwren.

Reasonably unworried about: Lalwendë, Nogrod.

Absolutely certain of innocence, beauty and, yea! perfection: Cailín

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by mormegil

What I am seeing is exactly what I expected to see when this whole ball began namely; A small group working in unison against the main flow. Based on new posting and thought I've revised my theory about Valier a bit, though she's not innocent in my view she's looking a bit better than others: Naria to top the list, Mac, Farael are the others. Three people singing the same off beat tune with spurious logic as to why I'm guilty.

Bear with me, mormegil, but I can't see your logic. If the "main flow" is on the right track, you're right. The three will be pretty desperate indeed to save the wolf's neck. Would, even in this case, be the baddies be so scared to work in unison like you say they do and not maintain some distance?
What if the main flow isn't on the right track? In this case I can't believe the wolf and its cobbler would do anything which is in opposite to it. Only the lonely cobbler might.
And what if the main flow is led by a vocal and convincing wolf/cobbler? Staying with it will lead us directly into desaster in that case.

Originally Posted by Eomer

You're eager to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy because you know how easy it is.

Sadly, it isn't. As you are doubtlessly able to see for yourself, nobody is listening to me...

[Lalwendë]

And in comes a curveball from the outfield:

I'm having suspicions about Cailin right now...

[Macalaure]

About Naria:

She voted mormegil when the vote tally was:

Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1

If she's the other wolf, she would have wanted to save Celuien. There was at least Rikae's vote still left, plus the constant danger that comes from retractions. Easiest way to save Celu: vote Valier. For reasoning, she could've practically just copy-and-pasted from the other voters. After Valier had been dead and perhaps innocent, people would have looked at Valier voters, which would have been a danger to Naria. But there are other votes for Valier (especially Lalwende and -surprise!- Eomer) whose votes were more suspicious.
Going for morm was a throwaway vote - always and automatically suspicious. It could have been a calculated risk of hers. Well, it immediately went wrong and then she voted Celuien. Why? Why try to avert a double lynch if you're guilty? To prove you're not in league with the wolf? Too late. That chance has passed.

Naria's posts are suspicious, I don't doubt this. But this voting behaviour just doesn't look wolvish to me. Convince me of the opposite and you'll have my vote. At the moment, I think she could be a cobbler, maybe, but they're not our primary aim.

[Cailín]

About Naria's vote: she voted by the time Celuien was under serious suspicion. Any vote not for Celuien would in hindsight be suspicious but a vote meant to save Celuien would be her on the first-to-lynch list without question: she was already suspicious. If the team indeed was Naria-Celuien (I am not convinced yet), a throwaway vote would almost be her best bet.

The voting does not condemn her, but it does increase my suspicion of her.

As to the cobblers… one of them by now is cast adrift and has not a clue anymore. The most that cobbler could do is throw a fit, confuse everyone or bide his / her time. The cobbler who knew Celuien's identity obviously did not vote for her yesterday and probably voted to save her. Ergo - this may make sense only to me - yesterDance's most suspicious vote is likely cast by Celuien's cobbler and I think it is far less likely the remaining wolf voted to keep their buddy in the game.

Naria is not Celuien's cobbler. Farael might be. He seems to have an air of desperation today. I am also considering him as the possible other wolf, to be honest. His vote for mormegil I find far more suspicious than Naria's even, who I think would -if innocent- simply enjoy suspecting Mormegil.

Of course, Macalaure's campaign against wonderful, lovely and irresistible Eomer is highly suspicious.

I still think Lalwende the Christmas Elf is a little dodgy as well.

Definitely innocent:

Eomer of the Rohirrim

Appear innocent:

Nogrod
Mormegil

Could be playing dangerous game:

Macalaure

Wary of (but could go either way):

Valier
Lalwende
Holbytlass
Folwren

Suspicious of:

Farael
Naria

[Valier]

*sigh* Well the Cobblers are doing a good job in confusing this here village. I was starting to get a feel for some players, but I keep getting these strange feelings that I am not looking in the right place....The possibility of Nogrod being the last wolf with Morm by his side as Cobbler, just keeps popping up in my head. I don't have much time today, but I will be here for the next hour and a half, before I vote, so I will see if I can justify my feelings and see if I can pick out the other confuser.

[Cailín]

Adding a little concerning Holby:

She has stayed in the background and not said much. Her votes were for mormegil and Macalaure. I did not previously find her suspicious, because her statements seemed correct and well thought-out, but if we are looking for someone who acts similarly to Wolf-Celuien, Holbytlass would be a likely candidate.

[Valier]

Dance3 votes

Mormegil-->Macalaure
Farael-->Mormegil
Naria-->Mormegil
Nogrod-->Naria


Yet to post today
Holby

Needs to talk more
Folwren
Lalwende

[Nogrod]

Okay. I only have a few minutes.

It's true that Celuien's cobbler was there yesterDance and should have tried to save her. So s/he would act only after s/he noticed things going wrong. The last votes (when Celuien had started to rise in the polls):

Macalaure-->Celuien (Cel-2, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1,Mac-1)
Valier-->Celuien (Cel-3, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Eomer-->Valier (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Folwren-->Farael (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Lalwende--> Valier (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria --> morm (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Rikae --> Mac (Cel-3, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-2, Farael-1)
Rikae X Mac --> Celuien (Cel-4, Val-4, Morm-2, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)
Naria X morm --> Celuien (Cel-5, Val-4, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1, Farael-1)

So if Celuien's cobbler is there, then we have only two baddies in the list of Naria, Valier, Farael, Macalaure (+- Naria). And Cel's cobbler could be anyone...

To me Naria's vote-change in the end looks most suspicious (in a sense of wolvery, not cobblery). She thought of throwing a cast away -vote and immediately realised the situation. Remember there was most probably going to be a double-lynch and Celuien was about to go. How would we have looked at her vote on morm then?

Okay. My vote stays.

I hope we get the last one toDance.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Maybe I'm just really biased, but that's another thing that I find suspicious about Valier. She begins a post just there with '*sigh* the cobblers are doing a good job in confusing the village'.

Why so worried? The remaining wolf is going to have to do a quite incredible job to win this game. Our chances of winning this are so high I don't think there's any need to *sigh* about how confusing it all is. Baddies tend to do that. "Oh! I've no idea what to do! It's all too much for me to cope!" I think it's a forced design to make her look quite innocent.

Also: while the main focus is indeed the final wolf, I hardly think we should skirt over suspicious characters because they appear more cobblery. So if we do lynch a cobbler, should we not rejoice? Blast those cobblers! I say we kill both of them first, and make sure they get their proper comeuppance, and then kill the wolf. If a cobbler survives these dark days then there should be no clemency afterwards!

[Farael]

Well, I've got to go now... is the dance really ending in 2 hours? if so, the X-mas spirit must be quieting many people down.

I do think that Morm is the last wolf. He's cunning and brave enough to try and vote for his fellow wolf and then if he happens to kill her ride the tide to the end of the game. I wouldn't put it past him at all.

So I stick with my vote. I've got to go now and I shan't be back 'till after the deadline.

Good hunt.

[Valier]

I assure you Eomer, my confusion is real. I was sighing because the more and more I read the more and more I become confused. I know I am suspicious just like everyone else, but all I was saying is that I keep having this nagging feeling... I never said that I was worried.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Eomer

"Oh! I've no idea what to do! It's all too much for me to cope!" I think it's a forced design to make her look quite innocent.

Every think that it is not a design, but an actual reaction to the situation? And I never said that it was all too much for me to cope, I am here aren't I? Others may be having a hard time coping. I just don't want you to think my defense about this is odd, I just wanted to stated that I was just posting what I was feeling at the moment. I am a bit confused. So I find if I do this it helps me figure things out.

[Cailín]

I must say I agree with the lynching of suspicious characters. We are at the moment 8 innocents against 3 villains, of whom two are almost powerless, pitiful creatures. Aside from myself, there are several people in whose innocence I am fairly confident.

Therefore:

++FARAEL

He may be our second wolf, but I am as certain as one can be in this game that he is at least a baddie.

Naria may also very well be a tricksy, fanged creature and I would not be sorry to see her lynched either.

[Macalaure]

Eomer of the Rohirrim:


First Dance:

86
Some cobbler theory. His points is that theory about them is okay, but actual accusations of cobblery are useless.
Rikae and Farael (and Cailín, of course) are innocent to him, he gives reasons
Kath, Valier, Naria and Lalwende are suspicious, no reasons

88+96
More cobbler theory

107
Accuses Nogrod of using his smilies as a tactic
Defends his cobbler theorism

117
Agrees with Nogrod to turn to more pressing issues
Jokingly accuses Holby of scaremongering

124
Votes his suspect Kath to avoid double lynching

125
Starts talking about the time near the deadline


Everything he says makes sense. He avoids to be aggressive or argumentative about his suspicions. His vote is reasonable. Perfect good guy.
Too perfect good guy to me, but this is just the first dance, and if you don't have a good argument against someone, it's better not to make one up.


Second Dance:

136
Apologises to Kath
Thinks Rikae and morm innocent because of Kitanna's death, doubts wolves would play so risky at this stage

183
Says Kitanna was killed because of her vote or voters
Reaches the conclusion that Valier is suspicious, mostly because she reached different conclusions than he
Believes Nogrod is innocent

197
Suspicious about Folwren because of her defense
Votes Valier saying: "Even if we fail today (mathematically probable) we have good stuff to look back on the coming days."


On its own, his suspicions or Valier are not suspicious. But at this time we have already two votes for and a devastating accusal by Nogrod of her. Eomer obviously doesn't want to upset too many people by being suspicious of them. The one he goes after is someone who is already on the list of many others. His suspicion of Folwren falls into the same category, I think.
Then there's the sentence I quoted. I've seen many a wolf saying things like that to not make people worry about a lynched innocent.


Third Dance:

226
Rhetorical questions about Naria (including use of smilies)
Says everything about her is suspicious

231
Asks Naria what I said that made her change her vote. Doesn't see anything revolutionary in what I said
Says he doesn't need to elaborate why everything about Naria is suspicious

252
Rikae's death is over-analysed
Defends himself against my suspicion, bringing the smilies up again
Says I'm scaremongering and trying "to whip up an anti-Eomer frenzy"

261
Says Valier's suspicious because of her confusion
Says that the remaining wolf has to do an incredible job, so there's no reason to worry
Thinks we should no longer distinguish between supposed cobblers and supposed wolves.


Again, he goes after the one who is already high on many people's radar. The way he does it is highly suspicious in my mind, using rhetorical questions and giving no solid reasons besides smilies. I wonder why he's trying to lead us away from looking at Rikae.
I think his last post goes over the top. Sure, our chances are pretty good right now, but there's surely no reason for us to be as careless as he wants us to. Especially not with two cobblers around.

I'm testing the waters with:

++Eomer

I hope somebody joins me, if not, I'll be looking for something else. I see a showdown between morm and Naria coming.

[Valier]

Ok so I will be here right till the end, my work is slow so I have more time. I am still trying to work this out, but my main suspects are. Nogrod, Mormegil, Farael, Eomer. I am pretty sure we will find all our bad guys in this group. Do we dare do a double lynch toDance? What do others think? There are still four people to vote and there is retractables. What say you all?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh I am definitely sticking around to try and get a double-lynching. Preferably with Valier and Naria but I'm all for lobbing Mac in there too.

I don't even know what to say about your analysis of me Mac, other than there's nothing suspicious in what I've done. It's almost as if you find me suspicious because I'm not suspicious.

[Valier]

I know there has been some suspicion around me todance Eomer, but enough for me to be a double lynch candidate? You say kill Naria and myself and if not you will just lob Mac in there? Wow that seems pretty fishy...are you a little jumpy for some reason? I would like to see Mormegil and Eomer go toDance. Does anyone else agree with this?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Weren't you prime candidate yesterday, until that late surge for Celuien? That means yes, there is enough suspicion around you to make you a double-lynch candidate.

[mormegil]

I willingly submit myself if Naria, Valier, Farael or Mac is my running mate. If I go I assert that Noggie is innocent.

--Mac

++Naria

She really is a key player in unravelling this mystery. She may only be a cobbler but I think she's likely a wolf. Mac is starting to sound a bit more sincere to me, which is why I changed my vote. Farael is tough because he usually behaves this way but it would be easy for a wolf Farael to behave the same way.

What I find most telling is that there are two groups in general terms. Those who think the four above are suspicious and those who do not. It is almost divided perfectly that those three or four do not suspect each other at all and I find that fact alone very telling. How is it that everybody else finds at least one of the three suspicous and the four don't find each other suspicious at all.

[Valier]

Fair enough Eomer. I do understand I am suspicious. If others wish me to die toDance, ok then, but I want Mormegil or you to go with me.

[Lalwendë]

Having mostly been quiet I have simply been reading today and judging from afar. And my (almost) silent vote goes on:

++Valier

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

More excellent points Mormegil. If you are evil then you are playing absolutely masterfully and probably deserve to win; but at the moment I do trust you and am considering you tied with Nogrod as probably innocent.

Could we have a treble-lynching? That would be a tasty write-up for the mod.

[Macalaure]

I'm not very fond of a double-lynch including morm. I really don't agree with everything he has said toDance, but I still feel him quite innocent.

I think his last point was very interesting.

What I find most telling is that there are two groups in general terms. Those who think the four above are suspicious and those who do not. It is almost divided perfectly that those three or four do not suspect each other at all and I find that fact alone very telling. How is it that everybody else finds at least one of the three suspicous and the four don't find each other suspicious at all.

That division is very interesting indeed. However, since I'm regarded as being a part of one of the groups, I'd like to add that I am suspicious of Naria and Farael, just not suspicious of one of them being a wolf. If Naria is the one who has to go and she'll turn out a cobbler, I wouldn't be surprised, and it will most probably not change my feeling about Valier being innocent and Eomer being a wolf. I might refrain from thinking Nogrod a cobbler, that is all.

A double-lynching of Naria and Eomer might be interesting, whatever the outcome. Anybody interested?

[Naria]

I will stick with my vote for Morm. I have tried to contribute as much as I can, without as far as to do an indepth analysis on someone...which i don't do anyway, my comments have seemed to have fallen on deaf ears. All I have to say is this: I AM INNOCENT and the cobblers are doing an amazing job leading you all astray.

[Valier]

Do we dare a triple lynch with Eomer, Morm and Naria.? This would clear up alot.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Valier

Do we dare a triple lynch with Eomer, Morm and Naria.? This would clear up alot.

If we're going that route let's make it a quadruple lynch and include you. I would be satisified, though we have little time to do it.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Valier

Do we dare a triple lynch with Eomer, Morm and Naria.? This would clear up alot.

It will clear up a lot, but it will also practically seal our defeat if we are all wrong.

[Valier]

Ok agreed then Morm. If others are ok with it I will die alongside Morm, Eomer and Naria. If we all be innocents.....Well wouldn't that be peachy?