Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Farael]

And I wanted to add.... I do not propose lynching the "most silent villager" every day and so pray that at some point we'll get the wolves.

My plan is "lynch the silent villagers while there are no better leads". And honestly, so far I haven't found anything that points me towards a likely wolf, or a likely cobbler for that matter.

[Valier]

Farael your plan to me seems to have little merit. I don't consider myself to be a quiet villager, I just need time to adjust to the game and get a feel for people. This is how I have always played. Your plan includes who? me? Am I your only suspect? And why? Because I am slightly quiet and because Other people suspect me. What if you are wrong and you kill all us "silent" ones and we turn out to be Ordos, then you lose out on our help later on. Also your plan does not include the Cobblers, which I think it should. A Cobblers job is to be loud and confusing and would most certainly set up a plan to get as many innocent villagers killed as they can. Your planning and scheming seem pretty fishy to me.

[Valier]

I cross posted with Farael and just wanted to say, why do you think there is no leads? I am sure someone can come up with something better than just a random vote for a silent villager. If we keep up with your little plan Farael we shall all find ourselves in a great deal of hurt when there are less and less Ordos around.
Why are you looking for things in your own posts that would point to Cobblerism or Wolvism. You say

And honestly, so far I haven't found anything that points me towards a likely wolf, or a likely cobbler for that matter.

Why were you looking at your own posts, trying to recheck everything to make sure you look good? Like I said....seems fishy.

[Valier]

Ooops triple posting...Sorry my bad, I read your post wrong farael and since there is no editing I post this. I see now you were saying you see nothing that points you in the direction of a wolf or cobbler, not that nothing points to you being a wolf or cobbler.

[Naria]

Ok, so far toDance we have talked exclusively about Farael's 'plan'. This does not sit well with me at all. Yes discussion is good and really no one else has come up with anything else. Farael I'm not saying that we trash your plan altogether, but we should be coming up with at least one more to toy around with.

*sigh*My father is going to roll over in his grave. I am going to attempt to do something that hasn't been passed down to me. I will go back through Dance1 and the voting and try to come up with an idea or theory of my own. However, said post may not come right away; for I am getting sleepy and will retire soon.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wonder whether the killing of Kitanna might not be intended to direct suspicion towards Lal, Morm and/or me. I realise it isn't having that effect, but a wolf might have hoped it would; and furthermore, Morm and I both expressed suspicion toward Valier, whocomes along today claiming the first kill is usually "out of spite" (implying Morm) and saying she wants to hear more from Lal and myself today to find out what the wolves were up to. I also don't particularly like this whole proclaiming her own innocence business - but my instincts seem to be off today, so I may be completely off base here. Just a thought.

I agree with this, Rikae! In fact I'd go so far as to venture you may have stumbled upon a tactic or a bit of strategy from someone!


Few words because it's only 7.40 am here and I ahven't woke up yet...

[Cailín]

Farael, no matter the merits of your plan, and there are some, I grant you, you are putting too much emphasis on it and this detracts from actual discussion of suspicious behaviour. Also, your plan depends on wolves actually slipping up and us being able to spot their mistakes. Especially the latter is far from certain. But I am going to let the topic rest now.

Lalwendë's latest post got all my sensors ringing and if she were not a rookie, I would be highly suspicious of her by now. The talking around and refusing to mention suspects is really a bit dodgy. I would really like to see more from her.

Mac, I didn't vote for Morm because at the moment, I was more suspicious of Farael and Farael still seems more dangerous to me. Do you mind? I am inclined to believe Morm is a cobbler rather than a wolf, if he is anything, and I am also inclined to believe that Farael is a wolf rather than a cobbler, if he is anything.

Can you explain why, for my feelings are quite the reverse. Farael may be a cobbler - if anything. His plan is now the focus of discussion instead of the wolves and this is more cobbler-ish behaviour than anything. I am more inclined still to consider him innocent, but yes. Mormegil is more possibly a wolf than a cobbler, I should think. His determined vote and clear message would lull our suspicions of him. I think a Cobbler who knows the identity of only one wolf would not have so certain a suspect, if this makes any sense at all. However, neither are very likely to receive my vote today.

So then, who will? I have to leave soon and will not return before the deadline, I'm afraid. Aside from Lalwendë, and only taking into account those who have posted so far today, I am uncertain about Valier, about Rikae, about Celuien and about Folwren.

Valier because of her early defense against Mormegil's reported suspicion, that was really no more than suspicion. She does not offer any real insights and just picks up on Farael's plan as an attack on her. I realise Valier usually acts like this, but I would have thought to see some names from her by now.

Rikae seems to make sense in general and her link to Kitanna, as was pointed out various times, makes her appear quite innocent. However, it does not sit right with me that she continues to point out Kitanna's death might be a clumsy attempt to frame her and others. She may be right, though, and she uses this to build a case against Valier. Out of my uncertains, she is the least likely to get my vote.

Celuien I find a lot more accessible today, if that makes any sense at all. I agree with most of her statements. The reason that she is on this list is mainly because of Mormegil's premature vote for her. Since I am inclined to believe in Morm's innocence (for now), I wonder what convinced him - though I seem to recall Mormegil's ancestors always to be easily convinced of someone's guilt. Also, Celuien seems to be playing a clever game. But that is like her, as I said before.

Folwren is here because she made the - in my eyes - most suspicious vote yesterday. She added a sixth name to the list, refusing to make a clear decision. Farael had also made himself a little suspicious, anyway, with his insistence on lynching the quiet folk and the vote seems therefore rather easy. I agree with most of her sentiments today, however.

It is never easy to cast a vote so early on in the day and I still feel I have little to go on.

++ Valier

In voting for her I seem to go along with Farael's plan, but aside from her being a reputed quiet one, she is really the most suspicious to me at the moment.

Lalwendë (whom I really do believe is a lot sharper than she lets on) and Folwren are my secondary suspects, Rikae and Celuien are a little behind those. Nogrod and Holbytlass have not yet posted today, but based on last dance's events I have no reason to suspect them of wolvishness.

[Farael]

Well, it's been dead quiet today... specially when compared with yesterday (sorry, I'm still not used to the "dance" terminology... todance and yesterdance?)

Anyway, it's 3 30 AM over here and I have to go to bed. I will probably be around tomorrow close to the deadline, but it's not certain that I'll be here, and since we have retractable votes anyway I will cast a vote now. I am split between Valier and Mormegil. The former based on relative silence (although she has spoken up since... but then, it was a triple-post pretty much answering my accusations) and some lack of content in the posts she does get up. The latter is a bit harder to put my finger on, but it is a mix of things. First of all, on Dance 1 he said little. At first I thought his "attack" on Rikae was a stroke of genious, but he followed his act with what... one more "extensive" post and two short, rather useless ones. This makes me think two things. First of all, he's playing it safe. Second, he's posting, so that his name is in the back of our minds and we don't consider him to be silent... just perhaps not too helpful.

Of course, Morm is not around today because of RL issues, but then, does that mean that he is an ordo? I remember this one time long ago, a villager called Malkatoj who had a very busy Real Life schedule... but still had time to be a werewolf at night.

The doubt on where Morm stands will not go away until either he's dead or he's killed us all... so I say, let's get rid of a dangerous Silent (yes Folwren, my plan and not because of Dance 2 but rather Dance 1) dancer. And Rude on top of that.

++Mormegil

I hope to be around tomorrow before the deadline to change my vote if anything happens, but if not, I wish you all a good hunt in the last few paces of this dance!!

[Nogrod]

Sorry for the late entry.

I agree that Kitanna's death was primarily a safe kill which also took out a good player. I mean that even though she gathered two votes the main feel among us seemed to be that of a beginning trust. That's many times a vital reason for a wolf kill: to get done with anyone who seems to be trusted somewhat.

But the voting does merit another look.

And then I'm trying to look at some people more closely. At least Valier's last posts have made me wonder about her a bit.

[Nogrod]

Double posting, then...

So here are the votes and the reasons given for them in the order they were made. I hope have represented the reasons about correctly.

Morm on Rikae because of floodposting.

Kit on Morm pretty random, not trusting Morm, wishing to vote anyhow.

Farael on Folwren by feeling there being something wrong (suspecting Rikae too).

Morm changing to Valier “the cobbler” because of the resentment mood (also wary of Celuien).

Cailín on Kath for being scarily good wolf and for suspecting those she herself does not.

Celuien on Morm because his behaviour is jumping out the most.

Lal on Kitanna for either flying under radar or playing cleverly.

Folwren on Farael because he voted her after hammering all the time the "kill the silent" -theory.

Mac for Kath because of an unusual lack of content.

Valier on Farael on inconsistency – following Folwren.

Rikae on Kitanna being safe and more calculated of the two (other being Cailín).

Holby on Morm for the confident "Valier the cobbler" –theory (also suspects Eomer and Naria).

Nogrod on Kath for being more dangerous and harder to lynch later (Farael being the other possible candidate).

Eomer on Kath to avoid double-lynching.

Naria on Rikae for playing boldly the unexpected wolf.


Some comments.

Now this seems funny, but as I scroll through the votes the ones that jump to my eye are those of Folwren's and Valier's. Folwren clearly votes with a bad reason as Farael had said that he is not in position to judge who is "silent" as he had to vote early. But Valier clinging to that same thing so fast and easy is even more eyebrowraising. Also, if Folwren is a wolf, she knew that Kath was innocent: thence it would be quite convenient to drop the late line of not thinking it a good idea to kill Kath...

Another thing that I noticed. Celuien, Folwren and Macalaure seem to have felt a need to vote earlier but still continued following and commenting on the game. I'm not saying that it is suspicious as such not to vote in the end even while you could do so. But there is a chance that this kind of action could speak of a need to steer the lynching and still not to leave oneself too closely scrutinised as not being one of those who will in the end actually need to make the final decisions.

Continuing from that it could also be noted that Valier, Rikae and Holby voted pretty late but did not take part in the game after that even though the vote was not going in the way they themselves had wished for.

Safety, safety...

And a funny thing: when you look at the reasons given on the first Dance gathered together they look pretty bad indeed, most of them.

[Celuien]

Time for a vote...

++ Valier

She has seemed awfully jumpy all day and seems consistently defensive, even when only relatively lightly suspected or in danger of a vote. I'd think that wolves or cobblers would tend to be the more nervous ones since they're the ones with something to hide.

I'm not sure that Morm would have attempted a double bluff with Kitanna and then immediately started a campaign against me. We both voted against him yesterday, and it would look odd if the people who voted against him suddenly died in retaliation. I think he's too clever to do that, though I would put a bold, bold strategy past him if he were a wolf. He still makes me nervous, though that has diminshed since Kitanna's death. At any rate, we still have a roping contest tomorrow, and I want to know why he voted as he did today.

Lal is being a little bit...mysterious with all the allusions to having vibes. Makes me wonder about her a little bit.

Farael strikes me as a well intentioned innocent with, shall I say, great force of convictions. I don't think he's trying to sow confusion or cause problems with his plan at all. Valier's interaction with him is another part of the reason I distrust her, as a matter of fact.

Rikae, Folwren, Cailin, Holby, Mac and Nogrod all strike me as more innocent than not, though mathematically speaking it wouldn't surprise me to find a cobbler somewhere in there. I don't have any real suspicions about them, though.

Much as I hate to admit it, Eomer doesn't seem wolvish.

I can't really get a feel for Naria.

I think that's everyone. If there's anyone I haven't mentioned, it's because nothing is really jumping out about them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing that I noticed. Celuien, Folwren and Macalaure seem to have felt a need to vote earlier but still continued following and commenting on the game.

Retractables have changed my vote dynamic a little bit. Since it's not certain until the deadline, I like (other than being busy today) to be around until the end to keep an eye out for mischief or another good reason to change my vote.

Signing off for coffee, breakfast, and a quick ride on the trails!

[Nogrod]

Looking at Valier...

Dance1
#75 Tries to dismerit the “lynch the silents”-suggestion by making the point that whatever we do the wolves will accustom their ways accordingly to defeat us.

I know that killing the silent ones may sound like a good idea, but I think it folly. Whatever we say the wolves will certainly take into account. If we say kill the silent ones they will talk lots, if we say kill the loud ones they will back off.

But how does this actually dismerit the plan? Here I think Morm has a point about the cobblery: a cobbler would like to point out that we can’t use any tactics – and would like to dismerit especially Farael’s quite reasonable plan that would make the wolves talking and thence force them out in the open for the following Dances to come.

#100 Thank’s Morm for the vote and promises to come back.

#112 Goes on the footsteps of Folwren:

Oh we need to vote. Well I agree with Folwren on this one. I think Farael putting forth so much posting about killing off the silent ones, then not heeding his own advice to be well... wrong.

As I said earlier this looks like a trial to a safe vote. But it’s also pretty superficial as the reason does not hold a bit.

Dance2
#138 Speculates about reasons why Kitanna was killed and then defends herself against Morm’s suspicions. And surely this looks a bit funny:

Let me just say Morm ALWAYS suspects me the first few days....Not to say that sometimes he isn't right, but this time he has no good evidence at all to point to my wolvishness

Just read the part I have bolded... (it kind of reminds me about wolf-Roa saying “I have never been a wolf before” in one game a long time ago )

#162 She starts to really defend herself against Farael with the most elliptic fashion.

I don't consider myself to be a quiet villager, I just need time to adjust to the game and get a feel for people. This is how I have always played. ... What if you are wrong and you kill all us "silent" ones and we turn out to be Ordos, then you lose out on our help later on.

I think we all need to get the feel for people. Why should someone be immune to lynching because of that? Or why is it worse to mistakingly kill the silents (and lose their help) as the louder ones? In fact I see it the contrary way. The silents turn out to be more scary with every Dance done.
She also thinks that Farael’s plan should include the cobblers too as they should be loud and confusing. I’m not sure if that holds in these first Dances. But anyhow – as I have already said – I think the time to look seriously at the cobblers isn’t yet as we should look primarily at the wolves.

#163 She goes even more odd:

If we keep up with your little plan Farael we shall all find ourselves in a great deal of hurt when there are less and less Ordos around.

Now why is lynching the silent ones going to reduce the number of ordos more than lynching other than silent people? There seems to be no way of knowing that to anyone of us – except the wolves and the cobblers. And if Valier is either of them, then her reaction would indeed point that also another baddie might be among the quiet...
Then there was the misunderstanding stuff.

#164 Correcting the misunderstanding.

I have said that we should concentrate on finding a wolf, but Valier seems to be more cobblerish indeed (if the wolvishness thing wasn't an actual slip). Many of her points would look like that. It is also noteworthy that she has said little or nothing of a relatively large group of people. That would be a perfect cobblery (or wolvery) as her wolf (or wolfmate) would nicely stay uncommented and unlinked to her among a host of people.

I’m not saying she is the cobbler, but a very good candidate for it as far as I can see.

[Nogrod]

Looking at Folwren...

Dance1
#17 Even though mainly defending the silent, does the trick of saying a lot and still nothing:

No...I say, search for the people in the center, but do so without forgetting those on the two farthest side of the spectrum of talkative and silent.

#19 After Celuien says she is not trusting her, she goes to answer:

You can not tell, indeed. Not by my looks or words, perhaps. Maybe you will come to trust me, though. I know not. Nor do I care.

#24 When Lal suspected her of nervousness she defended:

No. Not necessarily something to hide. Fear, maybe.

Somehow I remember her confessing that she does not wish to lie in WW (am I totally at wrong here Foley?). Now as a wolf she would have a hard time and thence might act just like this? 19 has the same posture?

#25

I still do not think it is good to kill the silent ones. Be careful...if you must...consider how they usually are. Those with the habits of being silence and shy should not be killed for it.

So defending the “habitually silents” here. If she indeed is a wolf (or a cobbler) we might have one among the silent... as she so fervently tries to defend them against Farael’s plan?

#34 Cautiously admits Farael might have a point, but just might, after he had made a good and reasonable defence of his plan (#29).

#41 Answers Farael’s suspicion on flip-flopping nicely...

But if you choose to think of me as guilty because you managed to half way convince me, so be it.

#42 Points back to Mac for saying nothing, not too seriously though.

#68 Is appalled by Morm and thinks him cobblerish. Says she will not answer Farael any more and underlines that she is un-Foleyish as she is a countess. Oddly personal-feeling post anyway... So actually appalled (why on earth?) or cleverly trying to look as such? It’s good for a wolf to look genuine.

#98 Gives opinions on some others. Leaves Morm be, disturbed by Farael, has no problem with my suspicion of her, Rikae’s reaction to Morm was not problematic (it was Foleyish), Mac is random but starts to make sense, Holby is full of sense, Valier has not been helpful... Of others she had no opinion.

#108 Main suspects Mac, Morm and Farael. Nicely gathering some quite capable dancers together as suspicious. Then reasons why she will vote for Farael and the vote. Saying also that a personal touch is involved:

This is not out of spite. This is not because he voted for me. It is because I do not like what he has done over all in his dealing with me and my posts.

Follows nicely the path set in 68...

#120 Defends her vote not being a revenge vote (as I had pointed out that she might be a wolf covering behind a payback-looking vote!). The following is also interesting:

This may change. This assumption, this suspicion, may be wrong. But I will not be held accountable if it is.

What?

#126

I do not think it is wise to kill Kath. Just my opinion. No time for more.

If Folwren is a wolf, this is very nice indeed. At the last moment showing good sense and empathy. Looking good?

Dance2
#155 Questioning Farael still, defending her vote from Mac’s questioning. Thinks Morm more a cobbler and Farael more a wolf. Says no comment on Kitanna's death but still saying it was safe.


There is a case to be made for Folwren's lycantrophy. Is it a good one? I need to think about it still... I mean cases can be made.

- If it holds that Folwren wishes not to lie even if she is a wolf her enigmaticness in the first posts and the underlining of her non-Foleyishness and the mask are points to be considered.
- At some stages she seems to take the mask off and act passionately and emphatically. That would be veryvery wise move from a wolf as it looks good always, fair and open.
- Literally last minute defence of Kath in #126 which clearly had no chance of actually affecting the lynch of an innocent looks pretty wolvish whitewash...
- She seems to be very keen on defending the silent ones, even though she doesn't seem to come up with any arguments why we should not lynch them.* Why all this? Because a mate in crime is a silent one? Because trying to gain trust and goodwill of those who feel threathened by the plan without actually gaining suspicion on others (but possibly Farael)?
- Being really quick to defend herself all the time, looking a bit nervous if I may say so.

* I'm not saying we should just lynch the silent (whoever they be now?) and I think neither is Farael. But why she wishes to exclude the possibility in principle?

[Nogrod]

Triple posting then...

I will take a break but still I need to vote early as I will not be home during the evening here (RL).

Just a couple of general suspicions.

I might go for Valier or Folwren because of the thoughts analysing their posts have raised. Need to think.

I'm pretty concerned with Naria as always. It's so hard to tell of her.

Farael I seem to agree with quite consistently. That worries me a lot indeed. Although I hope he would little by little come back to the actual discussion about the wolves and not only what to do if we have no clue about who they might be. That sounds a bit suspicious indeed, cobblerish perhaps?

Most concerned I am about all the people I haven't had time to really look at more closely.

[Lalwendë]

Cailin seems to me to be quite well up on who to vote for. OK, she voted for Kath to be lynched. Kath of course, was not, but she was then attacked by the werewolves. Was she judged to be 'on to something'? Cailin has now voted for Valier, against whom there seems to be quite the campaign building. This is as though Cailin at the very least knows something...which in turn makes me wonder why she is also against what now seems to be an anti-mormegil campaign in some quarters.

Nogrod is also very anti-Valier, as is Celuien, who also thinks Nogrod is innocent. Celuien's one-line defence of Eomer seems suspiciously designed to slip underneath the radar.

I think Rikae is innocent because of agreeing with my point of view about the wolves picking on Kitanna in the hope to draw attention to me as a newbie.

[Nogrod]

Just realised it. Why I am a bit more concerned 'bout Naria this time. With both Valier and Folwren I see the principalled defence of the quiets. Who is the quiet here if not her? If either of them (Valier or Folwren) is a baddie, that would imply Naria as a possible fellow-villain...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Naria

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

This lessens my suspicion... umm... not.

Originally Posted by Farael

If the wolves start killing those that are off the trail hoping to lead us away from their scent, that'll leave only the ordos that are on the trail. If the wolves start killing the ones that are on the trail, then we'll notice it and follow their lead to victory!

What if they mix the two? This is what I do when I'm evil.
I agree with Rikae and Cailin: Farael looks quite cobblerish. I fear the whole debate about his strategy is just one big diversion, and I wouldn't discount the possibility that some baddies rather like to discuss his plan than something of importance. Though I like talkative villages very much, I think Farael seems to be a bit loud just for loudness' sake.

About Valier: As far as I have acquainted her, Wolfier plays the game very cool usually, and probably would've just ignored morm's suspicion and hoped everybody would've forgotten it by the time they vote. She's too nervous to be a wolf, especially when there's no seer.
Though I'm a little suspicious of her, too, I'm really not comfortable with this early bud of a Valier-waggon.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Mac, I didn't vote for Morm because at the moment, I was more suspicious of Farael and Farael still seems more dangerous to me. Do you mind? I am inclined to believe Morm is a cobbler rather than a wolf, if he is anything, and I am also inclined to believe that Farael is a wolf rather than a cobbler, if he is anything.

So you took the little chance to lynch the one you're most suspicious of instead of a good chance to lynch the one you're slightly less suspicious of. I'm not too convinced this makes sense...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing that I noticed. Celuien, Folwren and Macalaure seem to have felt a need to vote earlier but still continued following and commenting on the game. I'm not saying that it is suspicious as such not to vote in the end even while you could do so. But there is a chance that this kind of action could speak of a need to steer the lynching and still not to leave oneself too closely scrutinised as not being one of those who will in the end actually need to make the final decisions.

Steer the lynching? Yes, of course. I mean, if I vote for somebody then I want that person to die in the end, naturally. I often vote some time before the deadline to achieve that. Especially when you can retract, it's not the best to wait with the vote til deadline, I think.

I hope I will find the time to take a closer look at Celuien, Nogrod and Eomer later. Very bad karma, very bad.

[Macalaure]

darn no editing rule...

Those names CELUIEN, NOGROD and EOMER need to be bolded.
very, very bad karma...

[Nogrod]

Nice to see someone else alive here Lal!

But I have to disagree with you on two points.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Kath of course [...] was then attacked by the werewolves. Was she judged to be 'on to something'?

It is perfectly possible that there was a cobbler or even a wolf amongst those who voted for Kath (Cailín, Macalaure, Nogrod, Eomer), but it is also possible that Kath was lynched by the innocents while the wolves grinned at the side. That would not be unheard of on first Dances.

I think Rikae is innocent because of agreeing with my point of view about the wolves picking on Kitanna in the hope to draw attention to me as a newbie

I tend to see Kitanna's death more as a safe one. Funny indeed that only those that might be thought to be implied / framed by the kill are talking about the framing? Do you really think that if someone agrees with you then she is innocent?

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nice to see someone else alive here Lal!

But I have to disagree with you on two points.
It is perfectly possible that there was a cobbler or even a wolf amongst those who voted for Kath (Cailín, Macalaure, Nogrod, Eomer), but it is also possible that Kath was lynched by the innocents while the wolves grinned at the side. That would not be unheard of on first Dances.

That is indeed possible, but statistically speaking, at least one of these is likely not to be innocent. That depends on whether you think the Wolves were hoping to throw in a curveball.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I tend to see Kitanna's death more as a safe one. Funny indeed that only those that might be thought to be implied / framed by the kill are talking about the framing? Do you really think that if someone agrees with you then she is innocent?

Hmmm, of course, Rikae could be hoping to get onto my side. Which means one of several things: 1. Rikae is innocent and wants to find an ally to avoid being voted for. 2. Rikae thinks I am a wolf and hopes to appeal to me. 3. Rikae is a cobbler and thinks I am one of the wolves. 4. Rikae is a wolf and is lining me up for the kill and wishes to avoid the chance of me voting away that opportunity. So there's a half and half chance that Rikae is innocent.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

So there's a half and half chance that Rikae is innocent.

Good - Bad, 50-50...

[Nogrod]

So 13 remaining of which 4 we wish to get rid of. So one of every three, about.

Here's what I think now.

Folwren - Might be a wolf. Probably my best candidate for it now. Which is not much.

Valier - Could be a cobbler. Mac says she's too nervous to be a wolf. So nervous of what if she's innocent? Maybe she's a cobbler indeed? That would be nerve-wrecking (just think about being afraid from both sides and not able to play for the village victory openly) and explain her nervousness?

Farael - I can't see him as a wolf, at least for the time being. Too loud, too risky. Innocent or cobbler then?

Naria - I'm very much afraid of. Hard to tell but known to perform well when under radar.

mormegil - Could be anything but I wouldn't lynch someone who is not able to defend himself because of RL reasons (but I do hope he will be more involved on Dance3).

Lalwendë - I'm bit confused about her. She seems to be as clever as she always is. Still she seems to pick up somewhat dubious tracks every now and then. It might be newbieness to the game, but with her intelligence I wouldn't put it past her to use that fact to her advantage.

Macalaure - I'm getting to see as back to his considerate self. He might pull it out as a wolf surely, but I would not be voting him today. As I said during the last Dance, he's too good to lynch with light grounds. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look at him closely from time to time.

Rikae - She has been here and there and still I can't quite say what she is. That kind of bothers me. If I would have more time during this Dance I would like to check her next, but unfortunately the clock is ticking too fast to me right now. If we both are alive tomorrow I'll be reading her more closely.

Celuien, Eomer, Cailín, Holbytlass - Sad to say, but I have no clear opinion about these people but that they have posted considered posts. They all look reasonable and cool. And that kind of makes me nervous too. If I'm wrong with my considerations of guilt (those in the head of my list here) and we should see this through pure mathematics, then there should be at least one baddie in this quartet. Pinning the one down would be very hard indeed as the others surely are helpful players none of whom I would want to lose... (although Holby and Eomer have been mostly quiet today)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm still very interested in why Kitanna was chosen. 7 people garnered votes yesterday; if the wolves wanted a safe kill then they would have chosen one of those who did not get a vote. The vote(s) for, or by, Kitanna are the reason why she was chosen.

Very early today, Valier started the rumours, eager for us to make the suspicious connexion between the deceased Kitanna and Lalwendë, Rikae and (interestingly enough, indirectly) Mormegil. She's going for all these characters.

If this is indeed malicious, then she has overstepped her mark. I think I will vote for her today.

Almost mirroring what Mormegil thought about me (in contrast with history!) I have faith in Nogrod's innocence. He seems very right to me.

[Nogrod]

I must quit this Dance now and am most torn between my choices. Voting this early is not nice indeed.

Should I go for a possible wolf and vote for Folwren? She being a wolf seems possible, but I don't know how probable it is...

Should I go for a more believable cobbler and vote for Valier? I don't like bandwaggons, even less early ones, but then again her nervousness would speak even more on behalf of her being the cobbler... But getting a cobbler doesn't equal getting a wolf.

Or should I go to the common denominator of my prime suspects (of which both probably are not true but another might be?) and vote for Naria that I both am afraid of and who could be implied by the steady defence of the silent-ones of both Folwren and Valier? (That would mean that either one should be a cobbler who knows Naria to be the wolf - and basically Folwren, if she is a villain, looks more like a wolf than a cobbler to me)

Gah!

I'll go for the wolf.

++ Folwren

Hope you others have more time to discuss the pros and cons of different possibilities...

[Holbytlass]

Mormegil:I believe he is the first to point out Valier as being odd and since others have joined that thinking, all I can say at this point is if Valier is found to be a baddie of some sort than kudos to Morm and I will find it hard to find him a baddie as there are only 2 wolves. Not a lot of wiggle room to oust a fellow badguy. Morm changes vote from Rikae to Valier being consistent with his feeling, likes to vote early-the safest voting of all

Farael:He is being consistent with himself as far as lockjawing on something and not letting go. This time it's a plan instead of a person. I still find him innocent at this moment but as I said about ready made quiet wolves to fly under the radar, "ready made" can apply to anyone who can keep being themselves as a baddie. his vote for Folwren is consistent and a safe early vote

Rikae:She feels right to me for now. Putting forth thoughts and counterthoughts on people and ideas-not in a way as to make confusion. vote for Kitanna consistent, did put Kit in a tie with Morm and Kath. Just seems too redundant for Rikae to be a wolf to put another person in a 3 way tie then kill them that night

Nogrod: good feelings from him, unless he is so adamant of pinpointing the way others look wolvish as to deflect suspicion from himself (o'course is what a wolf wants) but feels more like a detective helping the ball. did put Kath (now known innocent) in tie with Morm, so unless he was protecting Morm his vote consistent

Lalwende:She is clever but still a newbie to the dance. she was first to vote for Kitanna. she feels to me to be acting more like a newbie ordo than a newbie wolf-unless her wolf partner is giving great advice

Naria:by her actions-a bit defensive, and while stating her oppositions to Farael's plan (nothing wrong wwith that) doesn't really add to it and mostly her late/add another person vote seem suspicious.

Macaulare:his vote puts Kath in the first tie with Morm, is a safe 2nd vote for someone -with plenty of others still left to vote. could be having a not too obvious but there sparing with Nogrod to seperate the two?

Celuien:The only thing that jumps at me is that Celuien votes Morm (2nd vote-only5th voter) then he turns and votes her today, maybe another possible sparing wolf partners

Valier:she does seem overly defencive, her vote for Farael is consistent

Eomer:I just don’t have a good vibe on Eomer can’t really pinpoint it yet. His vote of course makes sense-he was already against Kath

Cailin:I don’t find her suspicious at all, hope she’s on our side-always picks up on other possible scenarios about dancers

Folwren: she’s on my middle ground, she was most suspicious of Farael but it can be seen as an easy/safe vote to add another dancers name to an already full card when other suspects are already on


These are my thoughts for now. Must go and catch up with latest posts, so much to juggle...

[Holbytlass]

++Macaulare




Mormegil-->Celuien (Cel-1)
Cailin-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-1)
Farael-->Mormegil (Cel-1, Val-1, Morm-1)
Celuien-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1)
Nogrod-->Folwren(Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1)
Holbytlass-->Macalaure (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)

[Folwren]

The countess smiles a very small smile and a cold laugh escapes her.

It is very strange to be suspected. (As Foley, I really don't know how I'm going to go about to make a feelingless post when so violently attacked...)

Have I not explained myself to you people several times? My concept is not difficulty, and to my knowledge, it hasn't changed. Dullness of wit, perhaps, keeps you from seeing that.

Nogrod, because you have left and claim that you are not coming back, I suppose I can not change your mind, but I have yet have time, perhaps, to say something that will keep the others from believing you and following your lead. Of course, I am also terribly tempted to let myself be killed. It would be poetic justice, I think, if I were to die and you could see your mistake. All your careful reasoning and thought would come to nothing and you'd have to start over. But, no...I would the true dancers win this round and not let the wolves take over.

Before I make any defence, I will comment on others.

Farael, I don't like your excuses. I don't like them at all. To early in the day to know who was quiet and who wasn't? Well, it was obvious that I certainly wasn't. Perhaps if I had talked less, and not been so bold in some posts, you would vote for someone else who talked enough to make themselves suspicious?

I have no new comments on Mormegil because he is not able to post here today. Nothing new except this - I am inclined to believe that he is not a wolf. I think that if I were wolf and I could not be here for a day, I would not bother to vote. That could be taken incorrectly, people might suspect, it's too dangerous. Besides that, wolves get to kill who they like at night. I wouldn't risk absentee voting.

I have not really paid much attention to Naria. Right now, I am going through all this second Dance's posts. It just struck me a moment ago...Valier said this in her first post of this Dance:

Originally Posted by Valier

Well the first day kill is usually one made well sort of in spite, the wolves can kill pretty much anyone they want the first day and have it not really point to anyone and if it does that could just be a way for them to desguise themselves as innocent.

I am not certain, but I think it makes more sense if she meant to say night instead of first day. Anyhow, she says this, and then Naria say:

Originally Posted by Naria

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

The word 'spite' when talking about killing is brought up again. But this time, it is clear that she was talking about her vote. As for as I understand it, one doesn't generally vote out of spite to kill someone.

But that could just be coincidence...

Valier does seem strangely anxious to appear innocent, BUT her posts of defense have been directed towards Farael because Farael is wanting to lynch the quiet ones and Valier is one of those players who (in my experience) is habitually quiet. I've seen her playing a wolf a couple times and she generally does a really good job of appearing innocent, but she does it in a quiet way, going unnoticed and managing to travel through the game without great fits of trying to explain her innocence when there is no way to tell for certain. I do not have any opinion about her following my lead on voting for Farael. It's a free country, isn't it? (Sorry, that's a joke from our house.) And it's possible that he's guilty, isn't it? On the other hand, it was an easy vote for Valier.

As of this dance, Farael has been consistant. He even voted for a person who is quiet! (But Morm's quiet because he can't help but be quiet.) As some people have mentioned. Farael has managed to keep the conversation wholly on his plan of action, posting many times about it.

Nogrod has been very helpful by bringing up two very strong cases against Valier and myself. He is a strong ally, smart and willing to think things over, and he is a dangerous enemy. I am sorry to have made him suspicious of me, because if he really wants to, I'm sure he could tear me down and get me killed, regardless of my innocence.

I am tending towards letting Lalwende remain unsuspected in my mind. Until either I get more time to consider everyone's votes, or she writes more, I am not going to try to talk myself into suspecting her.

Eomer has posted few times, but he tends to make sense, mostly. My only quarrel with him is the fact that he voted for Kath when I thought she was probably innocent.

I find Celuien's words to make sense. Cailin, too, is nonsuspicious.

I have been distracted all morning (customers coming in and out of the store) and this post is taking me ages to write. I apologize. I'm going to send this and then post again with answers to my accusers.

-- Folwren

[Folwren]

Cross posted with Holbytlass's vote.

[Valier]

Sigh..Well I can't say I am happy with all this suspision and voting for me, but hey what can I do? I have only about and hour before I must leave for work. I will not spend this time defending myself as I don't think anything I have said is overly Wolvish. Yes I am a bit defensive, but I really wanted to stay around and help the village this time. I know I can be an asset later on in the game, but others seem to think not. Well Here's my lists...

Innocent?
Folwren
Macalaure
Mormegil
Lalwende

Baddies?
Farael
Rikae
Nogrod
Eomer

Not sure
Holby
Cailin
Celuien
Naria

I have no really clear feelings for anyone yet, but I am sure this will pass and things will become more clear as the dances go by. If I am to die, then so be it. I hope you all have the sense to bring someone else down with me just in case you are wrong about me, you may just get a baddie in the process. I will be rereading for this next hour and I will vote before I must go.

[Naria]

Originally Posted by Holby

Naria:by her actions-a bit defensive, and while stating her oppositions to Farael's plan (nothing wrong wwith that) doesn't really add to it and mostly her late/add another person vote seem suspicious.

I wouldn't call it a defense Holby. I was annoyed by Rikae's comment that she made about me(thus, voted partially for this reason). Also, where do you see that I am opposed to Farael's plan? In regards to my vote for Rikae, yes I did add another person to the pot, but she was the most suspicious person to me so I voted for her. I honestly did not feel the need to take a ride on a wagon. I actually had someone, maybe for the first time, that I was suspicious of for a Dance1 and I voted in accordance to it.

Now keeping on the topic of Rikae. I couldn't help noticing that she has yet to comment on what I had said about her. She being so talkative at that time, I thought my post would have received something. Another thing I noticed was toDance she has done an about face and is now acting like her normal Rikae self(fewer posts-meaing, less than Dance1-and more helpful). I find it odd that after I pointed out her abnormalness for Dance1 that she is now doing the opposite, hmmm. It may just be that she was an over-zealous ordo, but the amount of posting was incredible...even for an "I'm feeling kinda chatty today" Rikae. She still doesn't sit well with me, but her first post toDance has lessened my suspicions a wee bit(although this may be what she wanted it to do).

Originally Posted by Lal

In fact I'd go so far as to venture you may have stumbled upon a tactic or a bit of strategy from someone!

You perhaps? I would go as far to venture that you are wolf and Rikae provides your shoes . I can't find the right word to describe what kind of play you are doing Lal. You are clinging to your newbie ww status, but at the same time you aren't bumbling around and have decent thoughts out there. Not that those aren't good things. It's just that I would have expected a little less experience showing through than I have from you...you know, being a noob and all .

Now on to Morm. I would like to know why he felt the need to cast a vote when he isn't here toDance. As far as I can tell there is no mod fire mentioned in the rules, so why did he? He had the time to pm our Moddess, so why not just go into the admin thread and tell everyone he won't be around to vote due to RL. Another thing is, he goes as far to ask our Moddess to make sure she adds who he is suspicious of after his vote(Valier), again this begs the question...why? He went as far to ensure that addition, but fails to ensure his reasoning for voting Cel. Now I would think that adding a reason for a vote is a little more important then letting people know who he suspicious of outside of Cel, especially when one can't be around to explain it. It's almost like he is letting a comrade know what to do(how to sway the votes) while he is away.

I'll be back with more after a little catch up reading.

[Naria]

crossed with the last four posts

[Rikae]

Just a few thoughts:

Lal, I am not entirely on anybody's side, because nobody is entirely on my side. My purpose in bringing up the framing idea was to point out how it could possibly point to Valier's wolfishness.

Am I alone in finding Farael's latest vote alarmingly inconsistant? At dance one he argued for killing the quiet ones, but didn't vote accordingly; day two, he first mentioned Naria, then when pressed, switched to Valier, and then, out of the blue, he votes for Morm - who is quiet because he isn't here, and who normally doesn't seem at all quiet.

I think Nogrod has made a very ocnvincing case for Folwren's guilt. If she indeed doesn't want to lie, it's true she is giving the appearence of someone trying to decieve without lying.
So, Folwren, are you a wolf?

I'll comment on everybody else in a little while; at the moment, I'm most concerned about Foley, Valier and Farael (although I tend to be suspicious of Farael regardless); I also think I ought to look more closely at Holby and Celuien, precisely because they are not making me suspicious; and if Farael is evil, I bet Naria or Valier is as well (the bluff I mentioned, and his pattern of advocating lynching, and then veering off).

EDIT: Cross posted with Naria

[Macalaure]

Celuien


15 Early suspicions, not serious

18 talks about silent ones
27 more of the same, wants us to look for the misleading and inconsistent

38 agrees with Rikae about avoidance of topics/persons

69 sums up her non-suspicions
70 typo

91 stuff about cobblers
94 corrects my misunderstanding

101 vote tally - votes morm, because his behaviour's jumping out the most
116 tally, again
127 tally...

128 confirms Eomer of the time problems

137 analysis of Kitanna, no findings

151 says Valier's a bit jumpy

156 talks about Farael's ideas
157 "Crossed with Folwren. Nothing more to add."
159 tells us she's short on time

171 votes Valier because she's jumpy and consistently defensive
She's not sure about morm's behaviour
Everyone else is more or less innocent to her


I used to be suspicious about her, because she's been uncontroversial. Rereading her posts, I had no idea how uncontroversial. She's only suspicious of mormegil and Valier, the most obvious (because the two are most perceivably strange) picks if you don't want to offend anybody and turn his/her eyes on yourself. Her votes are utterly safe. She's very nice to everybody, which is not a bad, but a remarkable thing. Except the ones she voted for, she confirms everybody to look innocent to her.
She told us to look at misleading and inconsistent ones. She, at the same time is leading nobody nowhere except along known tracks and is very thoughtful not to be inconsistent.

Let us assume Farael is a cobbler, loud and distracting, then Celuien is the perfect corresponding werewolf.


++Celuien

[Rikae]

Naria, what's to comment? I'm sorry if I offended you; all I meant is I thought your posting frequency was your normal playing style, and therefore not suspicious.

As for my posting frequency, I do tend to post more on Day 1's (when I don't miss them). I like to get the game rolling; other people respond to my posts and suspicions and then we have something to go on. It's my feeling that the sooner peope get talking, the sooner we can hunt down a wolf.

[Folwren]

My defense is still in progress, but because it is so close to closing time, I am going to post it as I finish paragraphs and my points. Cold and stoic as I am, I have no wish to die today. I will resign myself to my fate, if it is my fate, but until that fate is sealed, I'll talk.

Nogrod and Mac, you are my two main attackers. It seems as though they are both bothered by the fact that I added a sixth name to the list of people being voted for. To be honest, I didn't count how many people were already voted for. All I knew was that, I didn't think any of them so far were as guilty looking as Farael. Hence my vote. I do not care what anyone says. I will not vote for someone I think less guilty than another, especially when the only reason would be so that the votes are not spread out enough. I don’t think like that. As Nogrod observed (somewhat), I’m too honest. I’m no politician. I’m not a liar, either, even in these games. I haven’t lied, and I haven’t half lied. I am completely and entirely honest when I say to you, I am an innocent.

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is a case to be made for Folwren's lycantrophy. Is it a good one? I need to think about it still... I mean cases can be made.

- If it holds that Folwren wishes not to lie even if she is a wolf her enigmaticness in the first posts and the underlining of her non-Foleyishness and the mask are points to be considered.

It holds that I do not wish to lie. I have not lied. And I will not lie. I am innocent.

- At some stages she seems to take the mask off and act passionately and emphatically. That would be veryvery wise move from a wolf as it looks good always, fair and open.

Yes, the mask must come off occasionally. Anyone who reads books knows that the most stoic of characters can the most passionate scenes in the book.

- Literally last minute defence of Kath in #126 which clearly had no chance of actually affecting the lynch of an innocent looks pretty wolvish whitewash...

Last minute because she was not in danger until the last minute! Fools, fools! I didn’t vote for her! I told you as quick as I could not to vote for her! I didn’t have time! If I had and if I had known sooner that she was in such danger, I would have spoken, I assure you!

- She seems to be very keen on defending the silent ones, even though she doesn't seem to come up with any arguments why we should not lynch them.* Why all this? Because a mate in crime is a silent one? Because trying to gain trust and goodwill of those who feel threathened by the plan without actually gaining suspicion on others (but possibly Farael)?

You want to know why I don’t want to lynch them? Because in the first game that I ever lost, we lynched a quiet person. He was one of our last homes. He hardly spoke at all, but he was our ranger. We died because we killed him.

Silent people are silent for two reasons, when they’re innocent - they can not always post because of bad or little access to computers, or they are silent habitually. These are the type the Farael is asking us to kill and this is the type that so often don’t deserve to be killed.

- Being really quick to defend herself all the time, looking a bit nervous if I may say so.

For heavens sake! If it’s not one way, it’s the other! ‘Folwren look suspicious, she didn’t defend herself from Farael’s attacks twice.’ Or it’s ‘Folwren looks suspicious, she defends herself too much.’

I'm not saying we should just lynch the silent (whoever they be now?) and I think neither is Farael. But why she wishes to exclude the possibility in principle?

Are you blind? Or are you purposefully trying to kill me on false ground? I eventually said that his plan of killing a silent one on the first or second day because there was nothing better to go on was probably a decent plan! I DID! Then Farael turns around and says I flip flopped! Good HEAVENS! A person can’t be convinced in this game to change her mind, or else she’s attacked by the same person trying to convince her to change her mind.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Folwren is going way over the top here. "I'm innocent! You'll be sorry!!!" She wouldn't be registering too high on my list if she wasn't so adamant about painting herself as the victim.

Anyway, lots of interesting thoughts and useful discussion. Even if we fail today (mathematically probable) we have good stuff to look back on in the coming days.

++VALIER

If not her then Kitanna's death puzzles me greatly.

[Folwren]

An Edit for the above:

I meant to say he was our last hope, not our last home.

And, I also meant to say, the most stoic can have the most passionate scenes...

I think that's all.

[Valier]

Mormegil-->Celuien (Cel-1)
Cailin-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-1)
Farael-->Mormegil (Cel-1, Val-1, Morm-1)
Celuien-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1)
Nogrod-->Folwren(Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1)
Holbytlass-->Macalaure (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Macalaure-->Celuien (Cel-2, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1,Mac-1)
Valier-->Celuien (Cel3, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)

Well I think today I may just have to switch my would be vote....I know this of course will make me look even worse. I believe Mac to be an Ordo and I totally follow his reasoning about Cel. I do think that Farael is more than likely a Cobbler and since me voting for Farael will do nothing to help myself or the village today.
++Celuien
To hopefully save myself for one more Dance. If you villagers feel that killing me today will help to eliminate some suspicion, go ahead. Just please take Farael or Celuien down too. Why not have a double lynch this early in the game? I would prefer to see Farael go, but the votes are leaning towards Cel. I must go now and I won't be back before the deadline. I hope you all make the right choice and I am crossing my fingers that either way you catch a bad guy.

[Valier]

Cross-posted with a few posts and Eomers vote

Mormegil-->Celuien (Cel-1)
Cailin-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-1)
Farael-->Mormegil (Cel-1, Val-1, Morm-1)
Celuien-->Valier (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1)
Nogrod-->Folwren(Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1)
Holbytlass-->Macalaure (Cel-1, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Macalaure-->Celuien (Cel-2, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1,Mac-1)
Valier-->Celuien (Cel-3, Val-2, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)
Eomer-->Valier (Cel-3, Val-3, Morm-1, Fol-1, Mac-1)