Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Volo]

On the matter of Wolves: I can't be 100% sure, but I think that Legate and Rikae didn't both die by chance. This meaning that there is a Wolf (or other baddie) who really goes through his/her victims' posts before choosing a target.

And that would probably mean that not all of the Wolves are newbies or players that are known for not caring about their Nightly kill too much.

AND: The targets have been "newer" players, haven't they? Would a Fea or morm Wolf rather kill somebody they enjoy to play with or somebody they haven't played before with? I really get this feeling from you.


EDIT: Xd with Mith

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

But Volo, Gil may be in a pack - if the three sticks was a hint . Then he probably needn't be active at night either. I don't think we can be absolutely certain he isn't a problem. And we will look so stupid if he is.. but not knowing the number of wolves/beasts means that we don't know the odds. And so can't judge how much of a risk it is.

Yeah? I for one dropped the wondering of "how many Wolves and in how many packs they are" -thoughts. No, I don't understand it, but I did put a stop to some theory-making time gone wasted.

If Gil is Wolf: He makes the Wolves' victory easier by one person. He can't kill, he can't vote, nothing else.

If Gil is Innocent/Goodie: He makes the Wolves' victory harder by one person.

It is more probable that he's a Goodie. But if he is a Wolf, then he'll be passified if we lynch the other Wolves first.

[Volo]

That was all just theories, though theories that I wish you'd consider. Now for once, I feel pretty sober with my talk.

I am not sure that Fea or anybody else is Wolf and that Gil is not Wolf.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Volo

Would a Fea or morm Wolf rather kill somebody they enjoy to play with or somebody they haven't played before with?

I would methodically kill everybody who's ever played with me before and then play cat and mouse with the poor innocent children who don't know just how mean I can be.

[Aganzir]

A fair point about Isabell's changed posting style, Noggie.

My main suspect is dead and innocent (like a few of my other suspects, too), and at the moment I don't suspect any of the loud players enough to vote. So my vote will probably go to someone both relatively silent and suspicious - at the moment I think it's either Isabell or Sixth, to whom I had paid little attention before tgwbs's summary.

I would like to see Shasta more. He hasn't said practically anything.

I don't think lynching Gil is a good idea. Too risky I'd say. I'd rather lynch someone I suspect than someone who might or might not be a wolf, but of who one can't say anything. I hate the idea that the wolves could win as separate groups, but if we lynch an innocent & are right about the number of the wolves, it's possible (though maybe not probable) that it happened.

I'm slowly beginning to feel a little bad about Lommy. I think I could go through her posts soon.

edit: xed with two Volos and Fea

[Mithalwen]

Oh that is a big help ..... .

So sinceI have to make a choice soon : We have votes for :


Isabellkya
Gil
Lommie


I thought someone voted sixth but I can't see it now,,,

[Mithalwen]

I don't think Fea is a wolf. She would have caused far more chaos by now.... I've modded her twice and it was jaw dropping both times.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't think Fea is a wolf. She would have caused far more chaos by now.... I've modded her twice and it was jaw dropping both times.

So says you.

Now's as good a time for chaos as any.

[Isabellkya]

@ Nogrod: I think you were fairly accurate in assessing why I voted for Xyzzy.
As to the 'changing of my style'; today is Tuesday thus a weekday. The weekend got unexpectedly fairly hectic on friday. I got last minute notification that I was wanted at a softball tournament on saturday and sunday. So that took a little more priority over sitting here and trying to get my internet to work; when it didn't want to.

I have played many WW games and one mafia game before. Neither types have been quite as analytical as this one has been thus far.

Yes, this is true that I guess Shasta is apparently quiet here at BD. It is still something to watch out for; or atleast keep an eye on.

As to the Gil situation. I don't know how vocal he usually is. So I don't know whether his non-existance is a hindrance or not. I would think that for now we should just leave him alone. If he is an innocent then true he isn't contirbuting much; but he isn't conspiring against us either; yet we don't know if he is an oridnary or not. If he is a wolf, then we will just find out for certain towards the end of the game. We shouldn't wait that long to deal with the situation; but I don't think we should rush into it either.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

At best, Gil is a hollow number on the good guy side. He can't help us with a vote, he can't offer suggestions, he can't give us any idea of what's going on.

This gives the wolves, if he isn't one, a perfect opportunity to manipulate the village into killing one of their own. Even if he's good, without him to prove it somehow, he's a blank slate for anybody to draw an identity on.

That's not good.

At best, he might exist as a way to keep the villager ratio higher. But I don't really feel like taking that risk and reading in the final narration something like "And then Gil started laughing hysterically and came to life just long enough to kill everyone."

Yeah...

[Mithalwen]

I have had a look at Shasta ... I know Guy did this but .... he has said increasingly little (if that is logically possible). He satrted quitee amusuingly if nothing else on Day one but has actually contributed nothing but banalities, a vote summary rhetorical questions and statements of the obvious. Today he says merely that something amused him. Either he hasn't got a special role and doesnt' care any more or he is being very iffy. I havn't played much with him and have no idea if this is normal.

But I don't like it.. we can't assume all these inactive types are innocent - there are too many of them ....

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

But I don't like it.. we can't assume all these inactive types are innocent - there are too many of them ....

Which is why I still hold to my philosophy of ruthlessly culling the quiet folks and keeping around people who are likely to, by default, say something opportune at some point.

[Volo]

I see that the quiet are on the lynch line.

Votes:

tgwbs: ++Izzie (Izzie 1)
morm: ++Lommy (Izzie 1, Lommy 1)
Fea: ++Gil (Izzie 1, Lommy 1, Gil 1)

Of those I don't want to have Lommy or Gil lynched at the moment. Izzie? Well... Maybe... But no.

++Sixth

It feels like he's avoiding being present and there's at least some hope of getting him lynched (i.e. Why I don't vote somebody more active.).

Volo: ++Sixth (Izzie 1, Lommy 1, Gil 1, Sixth 1)


It may well be that the Wisdom of Vehade was something worth believing... :/


EDIT: Xd with everything since Izzie

[Mithalwen]

Had a quick look at Sixth ... I would say that Shasta looks a great deal worse. These players who live in widely different timezones always seem out on a limb and a bit odd.

I would vote for Shasta but that may be pointless since several of you have voiced suspicions but not actually voted on them. So although I know Morm and Volo think this pointless, I am going ot take this one chance to lynch. I thinkit is the last chance to do so and I, like Fea, couldn't bear it if he was a wolf and wins by default. There is just too much history.... which may be blighting my judgement.

++ Gil-Galad

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I, like Fea, couldn't bear it if he was a wolf and wins by default.

You put too much pride into the game.

[Mithalwen]

Maybe ... Montesquieu, I think, said something about the English treating games as war, and vice versa...

But I mus go..I meant to go an hour ago ...

[Boromir88]

But this is what Boro said that I didn't understand in 224" I just got back in, and skimmed through a bit, tsk tsk Rikae and Nogrod I'm going to have to tell them what is going on as they have absolutely not clue"

Possibley quite irrelevant but huh?~Mith

Telling them that their suspicions of me were completely wrong.

++Fea

She's offered herself as the sacrificial wolf, and I say we follow up on it. If they want to hand us a wolf, I'm going to take it. Fea clearly has offered to be a sacrificial wolf today in hopes of stirring as much confusion and chaos as possible, but he if she wants to tell us she's a wolf...I'm following it. She's done this exact thing before and no one believed me then.

This makes me immediately suspicious of Mith and Morm who have done a clever job of backing eachother up and stressing eachother's innocence. Mith says Fea's innocent, Morm says Mith is innocent...that's going to look mighty wolvish to me if Fea turns out to be a wolf.

[Thinlómien]

I said I wouldn't vote Mith but now I'm not too sure. That vote of hers... I think it's quite foolish to pursue lynching Gil in a village like this where hordes of people die at night. However, as the Kill Gil(l) -argument can be reasonably defended (removing the uncertainities) I wouldn't be surprised one little bit if some of the wolves was/were campaigning quite actively for it to mislead the innocents (assuming of course Gil's innocent - which is matemathically and psychologically probable). This makes me wary of Mith and Fea, but Fea less so, as she's always weird and I can't read her. (Bad reasoning, I know. But Mith also feels less sincere.)

I agree with the person (can't remember who) who said that if there's an assassin on the village's side, s/he should probably kill Gil. Otherwise, I wouldn't concentrate on him too much.

I could vote Mith, as she is suspicious, but I'd maybe prefer lynching someone who is suspicious and quiet, so maybe Sixth or Isabell. I could also consider voting Shasta if I had clearer picture about him... my feeling this far is that he has been little suspicious and very normal for himself... if I was to vote him I would like to have a less vague picture about him.

edit: xed with Boro

[Thinlómien]

Well, it seems we won't have the same consensus-problem as we did yesterDay...

[The Sixth Wizard]

if he really has been the way he was in TGWBS's analysis

Nuts he has been! That comment came at four thirty in the morning, and I like getting an hour of sleep, actually.

Anyways, I'm not sure why Mith (and others maybe in future) voted for Gil. What was that about? If he is innocent, which is most likely even now, Gil-Galad will be a waste of a lynch. If he is guilty, we can be almost sure he is not contributing to the guilty side either. What's the point?

Votes:
tgwbs: ++Izzie (Izzie 1)
morm: ++Lommy (Izzie 1, Lommy 1)
Fea: ++Gil (Izzie 1, Lommy 1, Gil 1)
Volo: ++Sixth (Izzie 1, Lommy 1, Gil 1, Sixth 1)
Mith: ++ Gil-Galad (Izzie 1, Lommy 1, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Gil 1)
Boro: ++Fea (Izzie 1, Lommy 1, Gil 1, Sixth 1, Gil 1, Fea 1)

So, many scattered votes. We don't seem to have much to go on, and I'm undecided too. But I don't like how Lommy and Volo are so close together, and that's about the only thing I've got today. Lommy's already got a vote, so might as well:

++Lommy

(Edit: x-ed with Boromir and the afore-mentioned Lommy)

[mormegil]

(Izzie 1, Lommy 2, Gil 2, Sixth 1, Fea 1)

It's pretty spread out and not clear leaders yet. Only 6 have voted so far and assuming there is no Gil vote we still have 6 to go.

Edit Sixth just voted.

[Aganzir]

Day 1
#37: Supports lynching someone about who one can't form a picture, if one has no (good) reason to lynch a loud player / a contributor. Says that even though Nogrod was hasty about Shasta, it wouldn't be nice to lose him (Nog). Rikae seems innocent. No clear opinion about Menel due to his spelling, which always turns ignore-function on in her brain. Durelin makes her wonder. Boro is giving bad vibes, but she doesn't want to lynch him. Shasta, Sixth and Kath are normal, xyzzy a little suspicious. Nothing to say about Isabell.

#44: Doesn't believe the evil team would consist only of three wolves and the cobbler. The only ones she suspects even a little are Boro and xyzzy, but she doesn't want to vote Boro and doesn't like the idea of voting xyzzy either.

#47: Says she won't vote now but will ask if Noggie or I could post her vote later, if she wants to vote.

#50: Says she's leaving.


Day 2
#156: Thinks an Assassin or a Bear killed Menel, the wolves Rune, and Durelin was killed because of doing something. Is slightly annoyed by Volo's new playing style, which would give him a perfect cover and make it harder for others to figure out anything about him. Not too worried about Fea, not much wary of Boro anymore. Tgwbs innocentish. Legate doesn't sit right with her, and resembles a bit wolf-Legate. Mith makes her uneasy. Kath seems odd, maybe a Bear? Volo's playing style worries her. Nogrod could be either way. Morm is weird. Shasta mildly suspicious. Izzie's vote wolfish, but she might be a puzzled newbie as well. Sixth seems normal. Aganzir makes her slightly uneasy. Rikae seems pretty innocent, but has been somewhat shady.
Has no idea who to vote, suspects too many people.

#157: Meditates on what should be done with Gil. If he was to be lynched, he should be lynched soon. But lynching him might prove fatal with such a big number of nightly kills.

#158: Votes Kath. Posts a quote that she says looks like Kath were the bear, and says her usually helpful tone seems somewhat forced this time, and innocent Kath usually gives better grounds to her suspicions.

#159: There are more cons than pros to lynching Gil, as he might start playing more actively.


Day 3
#253: Says she was slightly surprised by Nightly kills and wonders who was killed by whom. Thinks someone should probably go through Legate's posts, and says she'd do it herself but it takes time and she should probably let Noggie log in and comment something. Says she might do it later though.

#256: Kath was probably some sort of a cobbler, who maybe knew the wolves' identities. Kath's posts should be examined very carefully, if at all, for they could mislead us a lot.

#259: Asks Volo if he has dropped his eccentric style.

#261: Asks Volo if Kath didn't suspect Noggie as well.

#268: Banter.

#269: Says we can't assume the wolves killed Legate because he was getting too close, as we don't know if it were wolves who killed him. Doesn't know if the idea of two rival wolf teams (about 2 wolves / team) should be dropped yet.

#271: Says she's going to sleep.

#288: Says she has suspected Volo a little, but thinks now he's on the innocent side. Thinks that it would be very unfair if the wolves could win as separate groups. Says tgwbs is a bit too quick to jump to conclusions on the quiet/loud issue; Rune's death doesn't necessarily point to silent wolves and Menel's to loud wolves. Finds tgwbs (maybe evilly) hasty, but he looks rather innocent.

#309: Says it would be nice if Volo gave grounds to his ideas. Thinks Sixth is actually quite suspicious. Has mixed feelings about Isabell, and could lynch either of them. Mith feels sincere yet somewhat suspiciously non-committal, but she's growing gradually less suspicious of her. Is growing wary of morm. Gil's absence bugs her, but killing him would probably be a waste of lynch.

All this, and the result is: I still have no idea. I have not played much with her, and not at once with a wolf-Lommy (unless she is now), so I don't know how she's like when a wolf (and stalking doesn't count - do you think I have paid attention to your playing style if I haven't been playing myself?).

Actually the first thing that caught my eye was that she didn't have an opinion about Menel because his spelling turned the ignore-function on in her brain - but that feels like a very vague reason to suspect her.
And now it seems to me that it's the only reason I could have if I wanted to keep suspecting her. I fail to find anything wolfish (or worth mentioning) from these posts. Either she's innocent or completely fooling me.

Deadline is in half an hour, and even if I could hope to find anything, I'd rather leave it for now. Argh, my head is exploding.

[mormegil]

Actually come to think of it, if I were a wolf I would kill off Gil tonight for fun.

[Nogrod]

tgwbs -> Isabell
morm -> Lommy
Fea -> Gil
Volo -> Sixth
Mith -> Gil
Boro -> Fea (Isabell1, Lommy1, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Sixth -> Lommy (Isabell1, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)

Mith's vote got me worried... but I still think our best choices are the Menel-savers of the Day1 - and of them Isabell for the reasons I already pointed out.

But the points on Fea and Mith do look reasonable as well...

What to do?

Originally Posted by Aganzir about Lommy

Actually the first thing that caught my eye was that she didn't have an opinion about Menel because his spelling turned the ignore-function on in her brain - but that feels like a very vague reason to suspect her.

That was a good point! I need to move Lommy up in my suspicions-table somewhat... although I think I have more baddies in my list than we actually have.

I might go for Isabell (seriously thinking I believe she's a wolf or a baddie of any sort). Or Mith (because of her very random -feeling vote and her security with going after Menel and the trial of me which felt like caused by evil intentions yesterDay) or Fea for being the self-professed wolf (she might actually do it!).

Or the Sixth with trying to save Menel or Shasta...

But who?

[Aganzir]

I'm at the moment torn between Isabell and Sixth. I'll check their posts and try to decide.

edit: xed with Noggie

[Isabellkya]

I am not really sure on who I should vote for. I'd rather vote for someone who already has a vote against them; rather than spreading the votes out even more. I am leaning towards Feanor mainly because of the human/confession thing.. but that doesn't seem to be anything really substantial to base a vote on.
I would prefer not to vote for Gil-Galad, as at the moment it is pretty much a coin toss as to his innocence. Sixth just brings out thoughts of over eagerness to me; suspicion isn't really the first thought in my head. I am obviously not going to vote for myself; and Thinlomien she seems to be more of a distractor than contributor.. so ehh I don't know.

[Thinlómien]

That was it for me.

After a post like that (and a few similar posts before) Isabell can't pretend to be a simple newbie who votes the first person to pop into her mind and thus she seems highly suspicious.

++ISABELLKYA

[Thinlómien]

tgwbs -> Isabell
morm -> Lommy
Fea -> Gil
Volo -> Sixth
Mith -> Gil
Boro -> Fea (Isabell1, Lommy1, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Sixth -> Lommy (Isabell1, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Lommy -> Isabell (Isabell2, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)

[Nogrod]

I'd be ready to lynch Isabell as well. She's a walking contradiction. Not knowing what to do on Day1 (no wolf PM's then) and now she seems quite knowledgeable.

[Aganzir]

++ Isabellkya

I agree with Noggie.

[Isabellkya]

I was tempted to go and choose Thinlomien, based on her lack of ability to read all posts made in this game thread. Instead I will go with Feanor.

++Feanor

She seemed to admit to being non-human; could've been a joke... but I believe she said she wanted chaos. Typically only the bad people want to cause chaos.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

To be honest, the reason I'm quieter than usual is that I'm intimidated, a bit. I feel like I can't say much that hasn't already been said. I have been /trying/ to be more vocal, but it doesn't seem to be working... so I guess I'll just have to try harder.

++Gil

He hasn't said a word the whole time, and since SPM left it up to us to punish the inactive... If he's a Wolf, then the Wolves have a perfect under-the-radar candidate. If he's an Innocent, then he's not helping us at all, he's not voting... he's just a number on the chart.

Edit; X'd with... maybe Nogrod, definately Aganzir and Isabell.

[Nogrod]

++ Isabellkya

I think we got it right this time - once again.

[Aganzir]

tgwbs -> Isabell
morm -> Lommy
Fea -> Gil
Volo -> Sixth
Mith -> Gil
Boro -> Fea (Isabell1, Lommy1, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Sixth -> Lommy (Isabell1, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Lommy -> Isabell (Isabell2, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Agan -> Isabell (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil2, Sixth1, Fea1)
Isabell -> Feanor (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil2, Fea2)
Shasta -> Gil (Isabell3, Lommy2, Gil3, Fea2)
Noggie -> Isabell (Isabell4, Lommy2, Gil3, Fea2)

[Volo]

At least this Day will have votes to track.

[Volo]

What shall you eat, Nogrod, if you don't survive to analyse all the votes? A hat perhaps?

[Nogrod]

Gil is an enigma. Sure. But as Lommy said the mathematical and psychological reasons make it unprobable that he's a baddie with a role.

I'm quite ready to take the risk with him as he clearly is not playing at all.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Volo

What shall you eat, Nogrod, if you don't survive to analyse all the votes? A hat perhaps?

Let's say a hat then...

[Volo]

Oh yeah, the five extra minutes.

Well, let's hope you don't have to eat the hat then. I think I'd go after Fea or Mith tommorrow. Or you, if I'm not alive.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Volo

I think I'd go after Fea or Mith tommorrow. Or you, if I'm not alive.

The curse of the undead then?