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06-05-2007, 01:47 AM | #281 | |
Shadowed Prince
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Quote:
Now then... before I saw today's death, Rikae was actually my top suspect. It may, therefore, be possible that we have an assassin who merely screwed up. However, I myself think there are two wolf groups due to the little narrative clue Aganzir found. The important thing is that it doesn't matter, as morm said, unless we kill them. I'm going to go through Legate's post myself now, as there should always be independent verification. It does strike me, though, that people are being a little paranoid. Perhaps Legate was simply killed because he was both helpful and unsuspected. |
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06-05-2007, 01:58 AM | #282 |
Shadowed Prince
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Leggy
From Day 2 onwards, as he didn't get a dream before Day 1... did he?
This post makes me think he dreamt of Boro. This however suggests Rikae more strongly, and I think that's what we should go for. In addition, I just thought I'd mention about that I don't think the Isabell bandwagon yesterday was serious at all. Many, myself included, thought her slightly suspicious but not enough to vote for. Then, suddenly, she had amassed loads of votes in an effort to prevent Kath dying. I think this is probably due to some Western instinct that for democracy to work, there should be more than one candidate, than anything else. In short: it was a bit farcical. |
06-05-2007, 02:03 AM | #283 |
Shadowed Prince
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Further thoughts
Whoever Menel's ally/allies is/are, they are loud. Thus Menel pushing us to lynch the quiet.
Whoever killed Rune was quiet, thus killing the guy who most clearly and strongly believed in killing the quiet as quickly as possible. I think we should heed Rune's words, and his death was possibly designed lest we forget them: We should deal with quieter people earlier on, i.e. now. This ie because later on, we'll have formed strong opinions about the loud, so we''' know whether we want to lynch them or not. We'll still we confused about the quiet, however; later in the game, confusion can be deadly. Therefore, I shall be voting for a quiet person today. It helps that Boro feels innocent to be, and Noggy too, if slightly less so. |
06-05-2007, 02:17 AM | #284 |
Shadowed Prince
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The quiet
According to my books, the quiet includes, from quietest to loudest:
morm - 4 posts. Isabellkya - 5 posts. Fea - 7 posts. Shasta - 9 posts. Sixth - 9 posts. As Fea seems to have some sort of excuse, I'll move her to the bottom of my list and commence analysing, in the following order: morm Isabellkya Shasta Sixth Fea |
06-05-2007, 02:25 AM | #285 |
Shadowed Prince
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Mormegil:
DAY 2 Post 133 - Says nothing useful. Post 135 - "Trust me or not, Mith is innocent." Why...? Post 154 - Votes Kath on the basis that "Kath is Kath and I'm happier if she's dead." DAY 3 Post 276 - Points out that we have no idea what roles there are, so discussion is a bit pointless. Suspects Volo and Lommy. Now, I'm used to a crazily loud morm. There may indeed be time constraints, but even then I'd expect him to be more active than he has been. That said, a changed playing style cannot be used to cast guilt on somebody. What can be used is that he has said so very little that it is incredibly difficult to get a picture of him. I suspect most people forgot about him. Today's post does seem to be promising in offering some worthwhile content. Hopefully this will continue. I'll humour that hope and leave morm alone for now. If he doesnt shape up, I will go after him tomorrow though. I'm not asking him to be as loud as I know he can be - only to say things of actual worth, which he has thus far largely avoided. |
06-05-2007, 02:31 AM | #286 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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[this post is merely here to break Shorty's chain]
[and yes I am a spoilsport] |
06-05-2007, 02:39 AM | #287 | |
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
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Isabellkya
Izzy is interesting in that so many seem to suspect her a little, and nobody much. That failed bandwagon yesterday was a bit of a joke - more of a preservation of democracy than anything. Noggy, for example, leant his vote to Izzy although he suspected Kath more.
However, there may be something beneath all this moderate suspicion. Allons-y! DAY 1: Post 18 - In character stuff. Post 94 - Lots of random information about a game called Baldur's gate. Then: Quote:
Post 119 - Votes xyzzy for not returning after his first post. This crucial vote condemns him and saves Menel. DAY 2: Post 137 - Says she voted xyzzy as he was the first person to pop into her head! Says she'll come back later. Doesn't. DAY 3: Post 273 - Talk about how many wolves there may be. Well, this is enough for me to be willing to lynch Izzy, in the interests of the village rather than some ideal of democracy this time! Her vote for xyzzy at that crucial point is condemning, especially the way she tries to play it down later. Then there's the way her posts are often fairly chunky, but avoid saying anything whatsoever - she has voiced no actual suspicions, defended nobody, in all her words. I think I know where my vote's going today... |
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06-05-2007, 02:55 AM | #288 | |||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Quote:
Quote:
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I find TGWBS is a bit too quick to jump to conclusions on the quiet/loud issue. I mean, I don't think Rune's death necessarily points to silent wolves and Menel's wolvishness to loud ones. Rune wasn't the only one to promote lynching the quiet and Menel sure is able to double-bluff a bit. Now I'm not implying you, TGWBS, are definitely wrong. You could be right. But I just find you too hasty... maybe evilly hasty. (Although, I must say you look quite innocent to me on the whole.)
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06-05-2007, 02:59 AM | #289 |
Shadowed Prince
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Sixth
Since he broke my beautiful chain, I'll do Sixth next rather than Shasta. Then I have to leave so the other two will have to wait a while.
Day 1: Post 36 - Says we should lynch a quiet player first. My kinda man! Post 40 - Takes my "vote Fea" post seriously. Hehe. Well, he wasn't to know. Post 114 - Votes durelin hurriedly as he has little time. Could potentially be an attempt to save Menel - after all, he should have had time to read Noggie's post attempting to orchestrate a lynching. Day 2: Post 134 - Gives an account of what Menel said. Says we should suspect Izzy who saved Menel... but what about him? He seemed to try with that vote of his. Post 139 - Again attacks Izzy for saying xyzzy was the first to pop into her head. Post 146 - Thinks Izzy guilty, Nogrod is not himself, Kath innocent, Not sure about Volo. Post 223 - Says Kath, Boro and Noggy are most suspicious, votes Kath. But he said she was innocent in his last post! And unlike me, no reason for his change of heart. Seems to go with the flow here, worrying. Also, he hadn't mentioned Boro before. DAY 3: Post 280 - Lots of role-talk, suspects Lommy-Volo. Post 286 - Ruins my chain. Well, I'm not happy with Sixth. He flip-flops, goes back on what he said, and seems to go with the flow. I don't like his voting record either, the first seems an attempt to save menel, the second is a flip-flop influenced by others. I suspect him of wolvery. |
06-05-2007, 05:13 AM | #290 |
Pilgrim Soul
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Here had a quick read no time to post till later.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
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06-05-2007, 06:09 AM | #291 | |
Silver in My Silent Heart
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Quote:
And good find there Aganzir, that makes me wonder. I'm still suspecting Fea and Mith, but Sixth has also jumped out to look scary. Is he really playing here, or is he confident enough to just laugh and tell us that he's laughing. Now just look at his two last posts... Going to look at what I promised before I fell asleep, and try keeping the promise. |
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06-05-2007, 06:27 AM | #292 | ||||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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That was a bad Night!
And my apologies for the wierd post earlier toDay. I don't know how I managed to send it in the first place as I thought I didn't... I wrote a lengthy post and managed to destroy it and in frustration didn't have the energy to write it a second time (it was too late and I was getting a bit drunk ). But to the issues then. We either have still two bands of baddies left or then our assassin made a bad misjudgement. If it is the latter I would suggest the assassin would consider very carefully when to use her/his powers the next time. I do agree with tgwbs that we should do well to lynch one of the quieter ones toDay - unless a better candidate can be named. Isabellkaya and The Sixth come to mind as my favourite candidates not the least because the way they acted in the end of Day1. Both could be seen as trying to save Menel. It's quite improbable that they both are wolves but I'd bet a small sum on another one of them to be one. About Isabell-wagon yesterDay. My main reason for it was to create a differentiation in the voting. Everyone voting for Kath was just madness. You can't read a lot from the voting-record if everyone votes the same person. Sadly it seems that we didn't learn much about that last moment diversion (those who took part were Boro, Aganzir, Fea and me). Stated reasons for voting Isabell: myself: Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
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06-05-2007, 07:02 AM | #293 | |
Silver in My Silent Heart
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I so hate Cobblers... :/
I can't really get a read on her. Reading through her other posts though, makes me think that Kath thought of Lommy, Nogrod and Rikae as Innocents. Boro as the Seer, I guess this can be said as the Seer is already dead. Guy is also somebody she might have thought as a Wolf. This doesn't give us (or at least me) many hints, though. Unless she wasn't just a Cobbler, but also knew the identity of the Wolves or something. Quote:
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06-05-2007, 07:49 AM | #294 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Good morning.
I've caught up on posts and now I'm going to shower/eat/become human while I think about them. I'll post for real in a little while. One thing I found entertaining: the other night I dreamt that TGWBS was a werewolf. Just thought I'd share.
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peace
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06-05-2007, 07:57 AM | #295 |
Maundering Mage
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I'm not sure why we think there are 5 wolves remaining and treating it as fact. Lommy sure seems to be hedging her risk, so to speak. She's not committing on anything in particular. Most importantly I get a feeling that she's guilty.
Again please trust me that Mith is likely innocent. For whatever reason, I seem to be able to read her rather well and I don't see her as guilty at all.
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06-05-2007, 08:35 AM | #296 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
All my shower really got me was a firm belief that I don't want Mith or B88 to die. Nogrod's another story.
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peace
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06-05-2007, 08:44 AM | #297 |
Pilgrim Soul
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5 minute break...
Quite...referring to me as "that woman!" as if I were an adulteress in a Victorian melodrama.... . I will be online about 5.30 BST for a while but I don't propose to stay very long especially if it stays so quiet. and I refer the delegates to the Admin thread.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
06-05-2007, 09:51 AM | #298 |
Shadowed Prince
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Shasta
DAY 1:
Post 6 - In character banter. Post 16 - Disagrees with xyzzy suspicion. Also says lynching the quiet is a good thing... it really amuses me when the quiet say this. Post 27 - Says Isabellkya may not know what a cobbler is, defending her. Post 33 - Asks durelin if she knows her vote isfinal and can't be retracted now. Post 98 - Mentions durelin, aganzir and Noggy as suspects, but votes xyzzy! Even though she disagreed with suspicion of xyzzy in post 16. And no reason for the change of heart. Another opportunist who goes with the flow! Post 101 - Doesn't understand Noggy's point about following a declared logic. DAY 2: Post 136 - Post count. DAY 3: Post 277 - Talks without saying anything. Kath was cobbler, Legate dying bad. Post 279 - Laughs at Boro for saying he'll be back later when Boro was suspicious of Lommy for that. Hmm. Once again we have quite a few posts, but saying very little. The switch of opinions on xyzzy is weird and needs to be explained. Avoids mentioning who he finds innocent and doesn't really mention who he finds guilty - in the one post where he named who he could vote for, he admitted Noggy and Aganzir were only on there for suspecting him. I think we have a potential wolf here. So, the three I've looked at so far, excluding morm, all feel wolvish to me. And I'll be frank: Feanor is only on the list as a formality. I don't at this moment think she's suspicious, and I don't think I will after analysing her. Which I do not think I have time to do today. Therefore, without further ado: ++ISABELLKYA |
06-05-2007, 10:23 AM | #299 | |
Shadowed Prince
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Hmm, looks like I have another few minutes after all.
Just noticed this: Quote:
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06-05-2007, 10:41 AM | #300 | |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
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I'm here, but I need to go to the shop before they close so I'll probably leave in half an hour.
I agree with Volo and Sixth that the Priestess of Sauron indeed sounds seerish. As does also this (the first bolded sentence): Quote:
Volo, I doubt if it's useful to try to find any hints in Kath's posts. I guess she knew she was going to die, and no one knows if she has bluffed or double-bluffed or decided via coin flipping who she regards as guilty or innocent.
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06-05-2007, 10:43 AM | #301 |
Shadowed Prince
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Feanor i Peredhillion
DAY 1:
Post 58 - Registering her presence. Post 64 - Lynch the quiet! Or anyone you cant get a picture of. Lots of responses to things people have said. Says that morm/Noggy/Kath/Boro are sneaky people in general (not necessarily guilty). Post 65 - Posts a list of every villager divided into guilty, not, or neutral. She gets Legate, Kath & Rune right - all innocents. Suspects morm and mith, but only due to history. Votes xyzzy as she had nobody better to vote for. DAY 2: Post 160 - Replies to various things. Says we should scan the narrative for cues, not presume SpM will be a nice mod, logic is never logical. Post 164 - Role talk. Thinks Mith innocent. Thinks we should let Noggy live. Post 247 - Votes Izzy. DAY 3: Post 266 - Confused about roles, explains quietness. Post 294 - Registers presence. Post 296 - Mith, Boro innocent. Nogrod is "another story." She also keeps calling people things like darling or honey, and claims she is cute. Not really relevant, just interesting. She seems alright to me. She has an innocent air, her voting record doesn't seem too bad, she talks about who she finds guilty and who not. I'd like a bit more reasoning behind it, but this is Fea we're talking about. I feel good about: Boro, Fea I feel quite good about: Morm, Noggy I feel quite bad about: Shasta I feel very bad about: Isabellkya, Sixth Everybody else, don't know. |
06-05-2007, 11:18 AM | #302 |
Pilgrim Soul
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I'm here now - for a while.
I don't thinkSauce would have used poetic licence - he seemed quite piqued about my criticism of his grammar so I am sure he is writing hte narrations with a lot of care and he did promise hints. Need to have a proper look now I am away from work.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
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06-05-2007, 12:07 PM | #303 | |
Maundering Mage
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Quote:
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When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke |
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06-05-2007, 12:09 PM | #304 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
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peace
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06-05-2007, 12:18 PM | #305 | |
Maundering Mage
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Quote:
__________________
When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke |
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06-05-2007, 12:28 PM | #306 |
Pilgrim Soul
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Well I never said it would help .. just that while he isn't giving much away he wouldn't deliberately mislead ...
Lommie's seems ot have completely escaped attention so far as has Shasta. Gil is being studiously ignored which might be folly. Glad that there are few people around ... rather like old days ... but don't squabble. That is my job...
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
06-05-2007, 12:34 PM | #307 |
Maundering Mage
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++Lommy
I've made my intentions well enough known and I'm sticking by them. I think it time that we get moving on the votes too.
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When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke |
06-05-2007, 12:37 PM | #308 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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++GIL
Because he's being studiously ignored and I've come to learn that that's a horrible idea. Also, he's too quiet for my taste. Kill the quiet and use the loud people's mouths against them later, that's what I say.
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06-05-2007, 12:39 PM | #309 | ||
Shady She-Penguin
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Quote:
Quote:
Thanks to TGWBS's analysis, Sixth no longer slips under my radar and I think he actually is quite suspicious, if he really has been the way he was in TGWBS's analysis. My mixed feelings about Izzie have not changed in any way. I could go for either of them, since I support lynching the quiet ones. As to my yesterday's main suspects - Kath, Legate and Mith - two are dead and the remaining feels less guilty. She feels sincere, but I still think her somewhat suspiciously non-committal. I would not, however, like to vote her today as I'm growing gradually less suspicious of her. I'm growing wary of morm but I think that's probably just just normal for me and some sort of spine-reaction to his suspicions... Gil's continuing existence keeps bugging me even though I agree killing him would be a waste of lynch most probably. edit: xed with Mith, morm and Fea
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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06-05-2007, 12:45 PM | #310 | ||
Maundering Mage
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Quote:
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When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke |
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06-05-2007, 12:49 PM | #311 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Yes, I know some of these things have already been mentioned in some part.. but these are my own thoughts.
Quote:
I think going through Kath's posts would for the most part probably be a bit fruitless. She was a baddie (atleast that is how I interpreted the aiding the wolves bit ; ) she may have had some points which were true and spot on; but to me her posts seemed a bit wishy-washy, or atleast misleading. Nogrod to me is a bit iffy. He is pretty vocal, but seems to take the middle road. He doesn't really seem all that suspicious, but he doesn't seem all that innocent either. I agree about Volo and Thinlomien; they don't really contribute much (at least from what I have seen today); but are great gateways to distraction. Feanor; just seems to summarize things. Thinlomien; a post caught my eye.. she said that we shouldn't drop the idea of two wolf teams yet; but she didn't clarify why. She just left it open. Shasta strikes me as a bit odd. I've played many other games with him; and he is usually very talkative. Why he is keeping so quiet now... puts a red flag up for me. If the bandwagon against me yesterday was not serious; then why have it anyway? May I remind you that this is NOT a democracy; this is Werewolf. Some of you have commented on others who have not voted with the 'majority' yet here you are diverting the path; making last minute votes in a blatant attempt to save Kath. Where are all of the whistles going off now eh? If I didn't know better; I'd say you were all in cahoots with Kath! :P In my own defense, I didn't try to play my vote on Xyzzy down; it was the simple truth. I'll post more later; but my stomach is growling.. it is 1148am here right now, and I've already told my nephew twice to just hold on a minute before I fix his lunch. Edit; punctuation error.
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06-05-2007, 12:59 PM | #312 |
Pilgrim Soul
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Oh blimey - there are a lot of scattered votes suddenly - what four with one each?
This is getting a bit random considering our reducing numbers contain a lot of low attenders. I don't like Gil reverting to type like this after being relatively more engaged - - he could be an ordo but if he isn't he could be lethal Given his capacity for causing uncertainty, I would be suprised if he is killed at night - it would be too much of a favour to the village. So if we don't, we have to hope he is innocent and we don't need a well informed votes from him in the last stages. However he is quite capable of making random votes on little information (in some villages he hasn't even registered who is alive). Lynching him removes one piece of uncertainty but it is a risk. Isabellkya reminds me a lot of Gil in behaviour. Has attracted the attention, been given the benefit of the doubt at first and then attracted a fair number of votes. Is there any significance in Rikaes certainty about Boro? He has rung true to me along the line and Rikae wasn't gifted. But there was something odd he said in thath spat . I'll be back...
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
06-05-2007, 01:08 PM | #313 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Quote:
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06-05-2007, 01:12 PM | #314 | ||
Maundering Mage
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Would Gil in any game remain silent for 3 days straight? Not likely is my opinion guilty or not. My guess is that he is unaware the the game is underway. In general, he hasn't been very active the last week so I don't know. I think there are others who truly look more guilty than a silent Gil does.
Quote:
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06-05-2007, 01:17 PM | #315 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Gil should be dicussed in earnest now. It's clear he's not playing this game. So let's cut the talk of him being a silent one. He's not in. It's Day3 nearing the end and he hasn't posted even once - and there's no modfire. So we have to decide his fate.
Do we trust the mathematical chances that it's more probable he's a goodie than not? If we don't, I think we should do away with him asap. If we do, then let's forget about him and leave it to the chance. The longer we postpone this decision the harder it will be to make. I'm slightly more inclined to let him be but could be persuaded to vote him with a few good arguments. As I said earlier I would be ready to lynch either Isabell or The Sixth (and tgwbs brought back Shasta, the one I suspected a lot on Day1 but have since mostly forgotten him - that should ring a bell indeed!). The reason for these being mainly their voting in the end of Day1 which looks just downright terrible. But it should also be noted that be they innocent the way they vote is just irresponsible and dangerous to us. If we would like to interpret their votes as innocent player's mistake we would have the following explanations. Isabell: a newbie who didn't quite realise what the stakes were and what was happening. (we know she has never played BD WW before) The Sixth: woke too late and had no time to see the situation. (he told us to have woken late in both the thread and the admin thread) Both of these look very unbelievable to me but I would be pretty surprised if they both were untrue = they both are wolves. So one of the explanations probably holds... but which one? Looking at Isabell's last post just before me would kind of negate the theory of Isabellkaya being the newbie who doesn't understand anything about this game (or maybe the change in her style and substance in posting can be explained with her having gotten lessons of werewolvery BD-style during the Nights - I mean compare her posts on Day1 when the wolves had had no possibility of comminicating with each other to the way she posts now!). And even if I think that The sixth's explanation is not very convincing I'd try Isabell first. She looks the worst of them right now. Please Isabell and The Sixth if you think I have misinterpreted the reasons for your votes please let us know! PS. Me and Lommy will be entertaining Lommy's little sis for a while before she gets too sour... but we'll both be back for the last 1-2 hours before the deadline. EDIT: X'd from Mith onwards...
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06-05-2007, 01:17 PM | #316 |
Pilgrim Soul
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I don't read Legates comments about Rikae and Boro as being anymore than general observation. Of course he wouldn't have been explicit but presumably he only had one dream - and he may well have dreamt of someone who had died in the night - after he odd behaviour on Day one Durelin would have been a good possibility - or Kath - who was already under so much suspicion that it was unnecessary for him to stick his neck out. Note he more or less said "I'm voting for her becasue everyone else is". Which would be noteworthy bandwaggoning under normal circs. However for a seer it might have been the lesser of two evils.
But this is what Boro said that I didn't understand in 224" I just got back in, and skimmed through a bit, tsk tsk Rikae and Nogrod I'm going to have to tell them what is going on as they have absolutely not clue". Possibley quite irrelevant but huh?
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
06-05-2007, 01:22 PM | #317 |
Maundering Mage
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Nog, if Gil is guilty, which isn't likely, then if he is the last remaining wolf it will be easier to off him then. I think we need to focus in ernest on those who are active enough to give some other form of evidence.
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When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators. -- P. J. O'Rourke |
06-05-2007, 01:23 PM | #318 |
Pilgrim Soul
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On that I agree with you Nogrod. I think this is perhaps our last chance to dispose of the Gil question. For if two kills a night are normal (we may have a ranger but a save may be regarded as a bonus), then we are going to lose 2 active players.
I don't want to hang around tonight - sometime RL must take priority - but I would be tempted to resolve the Gil issue (I always am... ).
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
06-05-2007, 01:32 PM | #319 | |||
Silver in My Silent Heart
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As much as I dislike the "I do what I feel like"-style in WW, I use(d) that as an excuse myself and then think of lazy people as suspicious. I myself enjoy making theories about the narrations and roles much more than the actual thinking of who might really have the role. And if you didn't notice, I said in my preveous post, that it is pretty stupid to try searching Kath's post for hints. It was merely putting myself in her position and thinkin how might I react. Quote:
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EDIT: Xd with everything since Fea's "Yes" |
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06-05-2007, 01:39 PM | #320 | |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,530
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But Volo, Gil may be in a pack - if the three sticks was a hint . Then he probably needn't be active at night either. I don't think we can be absolutely certain he isn't a problem. And we will look so stupid if he is.. but not knowing the number of wolves/beasts means that we don't know the odds. And so can't judge how much of a risk it is.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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