Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Care to explain yourself here Lmp? I'm quite confuse at what you mean.

Oh, that was just an expression for visual effect. Just an exaggeration to bring home the point.

[wilwarin538]

I have an idea of maybe why the wolves chose to kill Celuin.

Everyone yesterday wanted the Ranger to protect me, so it was pretty obvious that the wolves weren't even going to and kill me. Maybe they thought that the ranger would not protect me, and protect either Firefoot or Anguirel. Since it was very unlikely the wolves would choose me. So perhaps the wolves couldn't decide between us three who to kill, since they weren't sure of which of us was protected by the Ranger. Then they just chose someone else at random. That person ended up being the Ranger.

Just an idea, it seems to cover everything.

[Eonwe]

no time to really post. i've read everything posted today.
current suspects:

kittana

why? i still believe i wasn't on drugs or anything couple nights ago. meaning im pretty darn sure wayne deleted his post naming kittana as a wolf. and would he delete it? rethought an unsubtle move? i dunno. but looking at kittana (especially if you are suspicious already. guess that always helps, as lmp says ) i don't like it. if i was the wolf i would try to defend people i knew would to be innocent. because taht would make me look good. i looked into it couple days ago, and kittana is doing just that. everything she says makes sense, because she's pretty much omnicient when it come to the clearcut wolf or innocent. all she has to do is keep up her retoric, telling people things that are true, but not daming. if you see waht i mean...think - dout! can't do that...

everyone else but lmp and the known innocnets, as for now. i'll try to come up with some kind of analyzis on everyone later on tonight.

two more things: wilwa must be assumed to be the seer now. if she's not, the real seer surely would realize the amount of damage that she would be doing. not to mention wayne...

mmmmm...waht was teh other...can't remember.

[wilwarin538]

when i was the wolf in wwjii

That is definetely not aloud.

[Eonwe]

eeep. your right.

excuse me spawn.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

i still believe i wasn't on drugs or anything couple nights ago. meaning im pretty darn sure wayne deleted his post naming kittana as a wolf. and would he delete it? rethought an unsubtle move? i dunno.

Maybe it did happen. But why would Wayne do it? Bad sportsmanship? I really, really doubt it, though the thought briefly crossed my mind. My guess would be that seeing that the seer had pointed him out, he considered and almost went through with a desperate move to seem like the seer himself. If that was what he was doing, there's no guarantee that the person named is actually a werewolf. So that seems like a possible "wash" to me. Consider: if there was a case of "duelling seers", Wayne would face a 50/50 chance of getting lynched and surviving one more Day, and potentially getting the real seer lynched instead, which would be a huge coup for the werewolves. Except that I think he figured out that if people had to choose, they would choose Wilwa for the seer and Wayne for the werewolf, hoping for the best, and decided that it wouldn't be such a great idea after all. Who he charged with being a werewolf is largely irrelevant. Besides, I think we all would rather look at the evidence that still is available, rather than the iffy chance that this actually occurred. I understand that you're trying to be as helpful as possible, but I think we might as well stick to what we can be more sure of. What do you say, Eonwe?

[tar-ancalime]

Celuien?

This has been done already, but please bear with me as I bravely go where...so many have gone before...and do it again.

Assuming that wilwa is the Seer (which, interestingly, has NOT been absolutely proved yet--and I was so sure that this DAY would start with some certainty on that point), we have this configuration:

Ranger: Celuien
Seer: Wilwa

Known innocents: Firefoot, Anguirel, Eonwe

I'd like to point out that any of these three may be our Hunter--wilwa is an adept enough Seer to know that outing them as innocent is very helpful to us, while adding that one of them is gifted isn't all that helpful. All three of these players surely know that too, and Wilwa can trust them not to reveal themselves further.

Unknowns, to include two wolves:

me, Glirdan, Kitanna, Lalaith, and lmp

This group may also contain the Hunter; again I think it's best to keep that information close.

Now, IF (very scary possibility) Wilwa is not the Seer, then our pool of potential wolves grows larger, to include Firefoot, Anguirel, and Eonwe.

I was wrong yesterDAY, but I'm going to refuse to learn from my mistakes and make the same prediction once again: Certainly things will become clear quite soon. It seems to me that by the time another DAY dawns we will certainly know Wilwa's identity, and with it the identities of the other three: the wolves won't let an unprotected Seer live.

(Yes, yes, I know, rehash of things we've already said--but bear with me, I am going somewhere with this; I'm just a little late to the party as usual.)

I'm going to confine my speculations to the five that fall under suspicion given Wilwa's identity as Seer, since it seems pretty unlikely to fall out any other way.

I myself am, of course, beyond reproach, and as others have done I in their own posts I will decline to elaborate on my own virtue.

Kitanna

is a puzzle indeed--almost universally respected till quite recently, and now by her very presence in this ever-shrinking group of people without proven identities she invites suspicion. No one (myself included, I fear) has paid her much attention at all, and I'm beginning to wonder why. She's the only one of the five of us who hasn't been the subject of suspicion--at this stage in the game, isn't that in itself suspicious? Have we been remiss? If she's a wolf I'd suggest a Kitanna/lmp pairing, by the way--he making a lot of noise, she sitting back and staying unnoticed; it's the classic pairing.

Lalaith

I want to hear some more from Wilwa on Lalaith. Such a strong attack on her the other day--as the Seer you'd have to have known that if you died we'd go back and take that as a dream. What were you trying to tell us? Why were you so sure? Also, Lalaith was very much against the double-lynch plan yesterDAY. Even so, she said was willing to go along with it if everyone else agreed--could she have been hedging her bets till the last moment, not willing to cut both of her comrades loose at once? If Glirdan is a wolf then I think we need to look very hard at Lalaith.

lmp

And now we come to the other side of the Glirdan coin. The most vehement accuser of Glirdan. It seems very simple to me--if Glirdan is NOT a wolf then lmp looks very bad.

Glirdan

has been engendering a lot of discussion lately. Several DAYS ago I spoke up in his defense, but as the list of suspects grows ever narrower I'm forced to reconsider. He played fast and loose with the voting record yesterDAY--did he really think we weren't going to notice that? Also he's lately been after Lalaith--whom I suspect of being his fellow-wolf. With his built-in defense ("but of course I'm flip-flopping! That's how I always play!") he can quite safely distance himself from her in this way, then vote for someone else. Tricksy.

I think that we could learn a lot from Glirdan's identity. I really think that if he is a wolf then Lalaith likely is too; if he is not, then lmp is almost certainly guilty. Since we can't count on a dream of Glirdan, there's only one other way to know for sure. As much as I hate to break a thing to find out what it is, we may have no other choice.

I know it's early yet, but at this point I think my vote is likely to go to Glirdan.

[Firefoot]

Looking back at Celuien's posts... she said that LMP seemed pretty innocent to her, while Glirdan was pretty suspicious. Now, she didn't know anything for sure, but it is another innocent's honest opinion.

I've also been looking through some of Kitanna's posts, and she is seeming slightly more suspicious to me, though that may be because I was looking for her to seem suspicious, what with all of you casting doubt on her. Many of her longer posts don't actually seem very analytical at all; rather, she seems to state what people have done and then not remark on it. This could be seen as an act to appear more helpful than she is being. Also, she seems to do a lot of piggy-backing on others' ideas, though this could be bad timing about when she has access. So I have moved her onto my suspect list.

Lalaith has seemed genuinely helpful in her posts. Her comments seem thoughtful and perceptive, but not in a wolvish way. I'm going to stick with my original opinion that she is probably innocent. I won't be voting for her toDay.

That leaves Glirdan and tar-ancalime. I will take a closer look at them tomorrow (ah, weekends!).

[Kitanna]

I won't lie and say I have stuff to add when I really don't. I just wanted my presence known so no one thought I was hiding out. I'm just having some RL issues to work on. And anything I could say seems gone. I was suspicious of Wayne and clearly I no longer need to worry about him. And before yesterday I was suspicious of Wilwa until she cleared herself. Though were my two main suspects and anyone else was just a feeling. So I'm going to go off and look through the posts and hopefully find something of use.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

lmp

And now we come to the other side of the Glirdan coin. The most vehement accuser of Glirdan. It seems very simple to me--if Glirdan is NOT a wolf then lmp looks very bad.

The werewolves may be feeling desperate enough to cast suspicion upon one innocent in by voting for the death of another. We are, frankly, closing in on the werrewolves with the sheer number of known innocents, provided the current hypothesis plays out true.

For your information, tar, I've spent the last two hours doing a thorough review of all four candidates (excluding myself, of course - I'll leave that to others who must suspect me).

Here are my notes on Glirdan; I don't quote whole posts (most of the time), just the points that seem most pertinent to me:

post 39: Reads like an innocent getting suspicious.

44: considers LMP less suspicious based on responses.

49: torn on leader plan. reasons against. ends up against plan.

117:

I knew Bergil was innocent.

- huh? How do you know, if you're not the seer? Slip of the tongue, yeah, but is this knowing that you know that you know, or is it the slip of a werewolf?

Wayne seems most suspicious.

It's early to be a werewolf and say such things about a fellow werewolf.

124:

What you said about Lalaith and her Jackal/Hyde type act made me think as well. Naturally, makes her even more suspicious in my eyes.

131: [to Wilwa:]

Which makes you even more suspicious. That seems like a very Wolfish way to defend oneself just because of a stupid and quite obviously (well, now it is anyway) random reason and vote. You are really high on my suspicion list now.

139:

Now, after your lengthy post tar (which was well thought out by the way ), I'm inclined to believe that you are an innocent. Either that, or a very clever Wolf.

I'm now a little more suspicious of Wilwa, due to theof the defensivness of her post earlier, but she's not as suspicious as Lalaith or Wayne.

148:

I'd have to agree completely with Kitanna on this one. Lmp seems least suspicious of the three, yet that doesn't remove him from suspicion. I'm more suspicious of Lalaith than I am of the other two, and even more suspicious of Wayne, yet I might give him the benefit of the doubt for today and vote Lalaith instead. There's not enough information for one to go off to pin anything on Wayne where as with Lalaith, there is enough.

199: a werewolf would be more careful to get his facts straight before posting.

Lalaith: I strongly suspected yesterDay and still kind of do today. She definetly is not cleared yet. She voted for Wilwa because of the attack that Wilwa did on her yesterDay. However, I'd have to agree with Wilwa on one point, no matter how much I suspect her, and that's the fact that Lalaith has been acting very strange. Her vote for Wilwa is like a type of revenge for the attack on her which makes me suspect her even more.

211:

No Firefoot, I think Wilwa's timing of revealing herself is actually quite good. It makes sense for her to come out after all the votes she accumulated yesterDay. And I'm pretty sure she would have revealed herself sooner if she had the chance (time zone differences). I'm pretty sure she's the Seer, but if not, she's pulling a Fea and she's the Ranger/Hunter. If she's not the Seer, which I doubt, then the real Seer needs to remain hidden.

220: suspicion of LMP

225: to Firefoot:

I agree with you that there has to be a mastermind behind it and yes, all of us have shown tallent, I'm not denying that. But now we have to add you in there to, don't we? You've had a lot of good theories going around. So there's a chance that you could be a Wolf. But I'm pretty sure that you are innocent and that either Lalaith or Lmp or both are a Wolf. That's why I don't trust them and they are at the top of my suspect list. I'm definetly watching them.

232:

As for Wilwa (or the Seer) dreaming of me tonight, go right ahead and dream about me. But you'll be wasting a dream. I honestly think we should be putting that dream towards Lalaith, the one person no one is certain of. She has been accused quite a bit, or has been on people's suspicion list.

The upshot is that Glirdan has been quite consistent in suspecting Lalaith & me.

If Lalaith is a werewolf, Glirdan has been too all over her to be a werewolf too, so these to are mutually exclusive. Any slips of the tongue & flip-flopping are overbalanced by the straightforwardness of his thinking in general. I'm leaning toward his innocence. So I'm officially not suspecting Glirdan as much as others.

My notes on the rest of the suspects are too verbose, so for clarity's sake I'll save them for another post.

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

What do you say, Eonwe?

ok i might as well be blunt. i saw what i saw there is no mistaking it. but like you said, there is not really all that much to be gleaned. just some mutually dependent situations:

kittana is a wolf. wayne is trying to look like he is confusing people but in fact is really naming a wofl, thinkng people will discredit his confusion ploy, and clear kittana

kittana is not a wolf: wayne is just trying to be confusing.

so i don't want to spend allot of time on it, just something to use in support of whatever position you take on kitanna .

cross posted with lmp.

[Glirdan]

Also he's lately been after Lalaith--whom I suspect of being his fellow-wolf.

Now why would you say that? Because of the fact that I strongly suspect her of being a Wolf? I've already voted for her once and she might be getting my vote again. It's either her or Lmp.

He played fast and loose with the voting record yesterDAY--did he really think we weren't going to notice that?

Now what do you mean by this? Do you mean that I strayed from who I would have voted for (Lalaith or Lmp is who it would have been) and voted for a known Wolf? Or is it what I said about spreading out the votes? Because if it's that, let me clarify this for everyone. That was just a suggestion and I knew right away that nobody would do this because we had finally caught a Wolf. I knew it was a waste of time, but I went and sugested it anyway for one reason. To see what you all had to say about it and to try and get a feeling from what you all said. And I can say now that Lmp's response to it was just like my response to his leader plan, which made me really uneasy. I really don't trust him. He's smart, perhaps to smart. He's so smart that some of you, if he's not innocent, got lulled into a false sense of security and trust him, which is exactly what he would want. Because once he had enough people who tust him, he could get them to be persuaed in voting for someone who's innocent. I'm not attacking them, I'm voicing my suspicion for them. I'm not as suspicious about Kitanna or you tar, but neither of you are sitting easy with me. Has no one thought up a possible Kitanna/tar combination? Kitanna would be the very quiet laid back one where as tar would be the outspoken one. And with tar suspecting Kitanna, he can use that to distance himself from her. I suggest looking more into a Kitanna/tar combination.

[Kitanna]

Eonwe, when did you see this Wayne post? Because until yesterday I remember him only making about three posts. I've gone back and looked for it, but I haven't found it.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now what do you mean by this?

I think it was your mistaken tally of the votes at the beginning of yesterDay (or was that toDay?).

[littlemanpoet]

notes on tar-ancalime

I just don't trust her. But the case against her isn't strong.

post 51: questions LMP, criticizes leader plan, suspects Anguirel, votes Anguirel

135:

I have to admit some uneasiness with Lalaith myself, despite what I think is sound reasoning regarding Kuru's death: who better to expound the correct theory than a wolf? By showing us her hand in this way (explaining the reasons for Kuru's death) she's being "helpful," which is so valuable this early in the game; could she be a clever wolf trying to clear herself by being a little forthcoming?

Establishes a plausible either/or between Lalaith and tar-ancalime

if Lalaith is a wolf, then lmp and Anguirel are not.

I have to say that I'm less suspicious of Glirdan than some others seem to be--he appears to me to be working out his thoughts in plain sight, without any guile, and when he changes his mind it's because he's reexamined something. I actually find his posts a little refreshing and they seem to me to be very honest.

Glirdan, Firefoot, and Kitanna seem likely innocent to me.

147: to lmp:

I utterly regret that in this post I'm doing much the same by rising to your so obviously proffered bait, but there it is. At least you have pushed me out into the open with the root of my suspicions of you, and even caused me to think through them more carefully.

160:

That's where you're wrong, Anguirel dah-ling. If I were a wolf, I would be NO ONE's backup singer.

234: logical as all get-out why wilwa must be understood as seer regardless of her validity.

I feel very strongly that even debating wilwa's veracity is beside the point. No matter who or what she really is, it can only help us to take her advice for at least one DAY and lynch Wayne.

252: logical as all get-out again

287: casts mild aspersions on Kitanna. Sets up dichotomy between Glirdan and Lalaith, sets up pairing between Glirdan and Lalaith; the upshot of these is: "if Glirdan is innocent, then Lalaith is innocent, and if Glirdan is innocent, LMP is a wolf, so let's lynch Glirdan; when he proves to be innocent, we'll see that LMP is a wolf." What she interestingly leaves unsaid is the opposite of the former pairing: if Glirdan is innocent, then Lalaith is a werewolf. If tar-were proven to be correct, which is quite likely, she would obviously campaign for my lynching; if she were successful, she gets the villagers to NOT lynch Lalaith or tar-ancalime for two whole Days. If tar-ancalime and Lalaith are werewolves, that buys precious time, which would bring the numbers from 7 innocent to 2 wolves, to 3 innocent to 2 wolves. We cannot afford to buy into her logic. Actually, she says that she's pretty much suspicous of all of us, leaving the whole post rather moot. But I think her charges against Glirdan look rather trumped up. I'm not sure what to think of her. I'm suspicious, but the proof is not really there. The charges can be trumped up (my current favorite word), but they're not as weighty as my second impressions took them to be.

[Eonwe]

unless i am halucinating, he deleted it. here is how it happened, possibly in my tormented mind (though i doubt it). wayne posted some very short comment about you being a wolf. i went to post and ask him why he suspected this. after i posted, mine was a lonesome post, randomly asking why. i can't think of a reason i would do it unless there acually was a post. hmmm...but like we said, lets not spend so much time on conjecture.


Innocent:

Anguirel
Eonwe
Firefoot
Wilwarin538

To be suspected:

Kitanna – highly (in my opinion)
Glirdan
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
tar-ancalime


here's the votes from yesterday:


wilwa - wayne
wayne - wilwa
glirdan - wayne
kittana - wayne
tar - wayne
celuien - wayne
firefoot – glirdan
lal – wayne
lmp – wayne
me – wayne
ang – wayne

analysis could possible follow....


ps. hunter, consider...

[littlemanpoet]

I'm really sorry to be turning into such a thread hog, but well, start posting a lot more, somebody!

post 25

That is quite interesting, but I see a few problems with it. If almost nothing was sad and no hints dropped here or there and at the end of day all the villagers just voted at random, well I think it is possible that no single villager would get more than one vote. And if everyone voted for a completely different villager what would that really tell us? With complete silence on DAY 1, well, I think that could be as bad as too much chatiness. I must say that would be an interesting plan though, but I really can't see it helping the village.

50: supports LMP leader plan, but on Day 2 or 3. - questions Glirdan.

Then in his next post he is quick to remove much of his suspicions from lmp and put them on Eonwe. Now I can take this two ways. 1) Glirdan is innocent and has truly changed his mind and sees Eonwe as more of a threat than lmp. 2) He is a wolf and he is changing his mind quickly because he wants to find an innocent to latch on too. Now I am quite inclined to believe number one, mainly because his quick change of opinion draws attention which is not what a wolf would want. But I will also take into account a clever wolf will use such a tactic because the village would not expect it. I will continue to watch him for now.

79: summary of what others are saying, little actual commentary

129:

My suspect list:

Wilwa~ For her defense and plea against Bergil’s vote. It seemed as though she was doing all she could to throw off suspicion of herself. Then of course her vote for Bergil.

Wayne~ As the first to cast a vote for Bergil it is possible he tried to get others to follow because several had mentioned Bergil’s vote as strange and his reason too random.

And a distant third Lalaith

Lalaith~ for what could be taken as an attempt to save wolf fellow Wilwa from the noose. Though that is not the best reason which is why she is far down from Wilwa and Wayne.

Note how this last suspicion seems to clear Lalaith if Wilwa turns out to be innocent, which a werewolf would know while writing this.

140:

I agree that perhaps one wolf is hiding in that mix, but I would say only one. So if lmp is a wolf Anguriel and Lalaith are not, or if Anguriel is a wolf lmp and Lalaith are not. Out of the three I am least suspicious of lmp.

Now I'd like to address Wayne again. Lalaith and Wilwa both gave reasons as to their votes for Bergil, you have not. Wilwa and Lalaith have been defending/listing suspects, you have not.

It's dangerous for a werewolf to draw such attention to another werewolf.

153:

I find all this tar talk interesting. I never would have thought twice about her post if lmp had not brought it to light as far too cool and calculating. So clearly she needs a good deal of watching. And I was very swayed by lmp and Firefoot's analysis of her. But I'm not sure I really want to vote for her. I have suspicions of Wilwa, Lalaith, and Tar all equally now. I'd throw Wayne in there too because of his unhelpful posts as well. So that leaves me with four to vote for. Lalaith seems to have gained suspicion as a Jykle/Hyde of the village. She is also the one who called for the village to talk much. Talking a lot = Confusion and confusion = wolf breeding ground. I think perhaps Lalaith and Wilwa may be wolves working together. Don't ask me why...just a gut feeling. Tomorrow I will take a much harder look at tar and Lalaith, but if Wayne does not provide substance in his posts then I may just go after him out of sheer annoyance.

Risky for a werewolf to name one out of three werewolves as her main suspects; on the other hand, making it a triumverate actually tends to whitewash the werewolf in the midst with the innocence of the other two, don't you think? I find triumverates a rather dicey way to present; look at ALL the suspects (should take this advice more myself! )

197:

Should I have been one of your dreams Wilwa please, feel free to reveal to the village.

guilt clearing words, placed where they are, likely spoken by an innocent?

203:

Though I do believe Wilwa may be the seer even if she's not I highly doubt she is a wolf. I feel prepares if not the seer she is possibly pulling a Fea thing and saying she is when in truth she is the ranger/hunter. I feel though she is innocent now.

If Wilwa is not the seer I still think Wayne may be a wolf. Judging by his response to her claim.

This is difficult to decipher, or else I'm getting too tired. Doesn't really tell us much.

210:

Her coming out as seer is a very foolish move if she's a wolf and Wilwa should know that. Doing something like that draws so much attention and then when her "wolf" is lynched and proved innocent everyone knows, the real seer has probably dreamt of her and is going to rat her out and the seer-wolf loses and a good chance comes about that the team will be discovered and they would lose. The wolves don't want that. Wilwa as a wolf and saying she is the seer seems far too stupid a plan for the wolves to try to establish.

264 she says there's a lot to lose by double lynching

Rather inconclusive, too, darn it. She's not giving much away; neither is she seeming entirely innocent. Gah!

[Kitanna]

Anywho looking back at the last two days posts I find myself thinking lmp is innocent. He's clearly smart so some of his posts are too risky, even for one so smart, for a wolf to try. Yesterday in his first vote after Wilwa said she was the seer he said if the real seer was out there he should come forth. I feel that is something a wolf wouldn't say. It's almost like "hey! expose yourself to us so I can attack you at night!" Too risky.

Then of course another thing he suggested was a double-lynch. Wolf suicide really. I find all of his actions far too risky, almost stupid, to make him a wolf.

The going back before yesterday he was the one trying to exgage us into conversations. Wolves want silence. His elect a leader plan and others of the like don't seem to me like something a wolf would do. Maybe I'm being naive and under estimating him, but I think he is most likely an innocent.

Right now I am inclined to think that and keep that. So that leaves tar, Glirdan, and Lalaith.

I feel perhaps Glirdan changes his mind very quickly on matters. And it has been happening since day one. I pointed out how strange I found his quick changes then, but pushed it to the back of my mind after that. I wish I hadn't. Glirdan keeps going back and forth with his ideas. One post he feels a person is innocent then in the next post they are probably a wolf. Glirdan is confusing in many ways and that is an easy way for him to hide.

That's all I have for the moment. Glirdan was easy to look at because thanks to lmp most of his posts were outlined so I didn't have to keep going back to page one or to page whatever and search out his posts. Lalaith and tar will take me longer to look at.

[Glirdan]

Anywho looking back at the last two days posts I find myself thinking lmp is innocent. He's clearly smart so some of his posts are too risky, even for one so smart, for a wolf to try. Yesterday in his first vote after Wilwa said she was the seer he said if the real seer was out there he should come forth. I feel that is something a wolf wouldn't say. It's almost like "hey! expose yourself to us so I can attack you at night!" Too risky.

Then of course another thing he suggested was a double-lynch. Wolf suicide really. I find all of his actions far too risky, almost stupid, to make him a wolf.

The going back before yesterday he was the one trying to exgage us into conversations. Wolves want silence. His elect a leader plan and others of the like don't seem to me like something a wolf would do. Maybe I'm being naive and under estimating him, but I think he is most likely an innocent.

Exactly why I suspect him Kitanna. Lmp is smart and would think about these things all the time. He would have thought out all of those things before posting them, trying to think of the outcome of what would happen. That's why I think a dream here would have been more beneficial here. It would have cleared a lot of things up. A dream would have been beneficial for Lalaith and myself for the same reasons. Yes I named myself, even though I know I'm innocent, a dream of me would have cleared a lot of things up for you guys as well. All three of us have been under great suspicion, but now there is only one way to find out who's innocent and who's not...

*I only have about twenty minutes left before I have to vote. Even though tomorrow's the weekend, I have to go to school for rehershalls for the musical at noon and I won't be getting out of rehershall until 4, which is voting time for me.*

I wish the other would post more and give us there input. It would help me in my choosing greatly.

[littlemanpoet]

More thread hogging, but I'm glad to see more posts from others.

post 6: good suggestion to talk as much as we can

post 58: disagrees with leader plan but is grateful for discussion fodder; thinks LMP probably innocent except for niggling doubt based on reputation

post 77: worried about LMP's blithe disregard for timezones

post 80: uncomfortable with Glirdan, watching LMP, questions: Firefoot, Menel, Anguirel, Kuru (latter 4 proven innocent), comfy with Kath & Eonwe, not sure about Cel, tar, Kitanna

101: explains vote for Firefoot as resulting from FF's seeming hypocracy.

posts thru 116: seem straightforward but largely empty of meaningful content

126: arguing and then pointing out the arguing.

155: thoughts on wolves and wolf strategy - shows someone doing a lot of thinking like a wolf, unable to resist the temptation to share it with the innocents?

(Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.)

This is why I was giving LMP a hard time yesterday and this morning, his insistence on people following his plan in accordance with his own timezone seemed unreasonable and therefore wolvish.

The best way for wolves to protect each other is by starting a bandwagon against an innocent they think is likely to be an acceptable suspect to the rest of the villagers. This is where people like Wayne come in very handy for wolves, which is why I was quite reluctant to vote for him yesterday. It is also why I feel very suspicious of wilwa's abrupt attack on me this morning - an early start of a bandwagon, I wondered - although I know she has time constraints which could explain her hastiness.

turns things around, which seeing that Wayne is a werewolf - if she knew this, and that Wilwa was innocent, sets things in a bad light for Wilwa. This makes Lalaith look suspicious to me.

Now, someone is inevitably going to come along and say "oh look how much Lalaith knows about wolves, how suspicious". But that sort of comment would be silly and disingenuous - without wanting to break spawn's rules, we are all veterans here.

classic "cover my butt" qualifier

I like a lot of tar-a says, although it doesn't necessarily absolve her in my eyes.

- nice words for a fellow werewolf?

It is strange and ironic that Glirdan, who was my chief suspect yesterday, votes for me today.

Wilwa, my dear, getting me lynched will be definitely be your second mistake.

Bold words if from a werewolf.

164:

I've been going through the list trying out different wolf combos, and one triumvirate just occurred to me which kind of works, logically:

Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin.

Two of these I now trust not to be werewolves; and this trick of creating plausible triumvirates, is suspicious.

171:

Now, being innocent myself I can't know for definite who is a wolf and who is innocent.

as if she's rehearsing how an innocent might think in order to get it right? or, by turning the grammatical construction into a gerund, it somehow pulls away some of the force of it, so that it might slip by the unwary eye?

195: in response to Wilwa coming out as the seer:

Well, well...this is all very intriguing. I'd be delighted to hear what the rest of you have to say to this.

Doesn't really tell us much. But if she's a werewolf, it lends a different tone to the words, no?

201:

I'm not being funny or anything wilwa, and I'm sorry to be so suspicious, truly I am.
But can I just say that if it so happens that wilwa is not the seer, could the real seer please refrain from revealing themselves?

This post seems like something from an innocent; maybe that's why it's there - a very tricksy wolf would not refrain from saying such a thing.

208: lining up with Firefoot - but honestly, darn it.

218: good analysis

219:

Glirdan, there's no point spreading votes around that I can see. The remaining wolves will vote for Wayne now, I expect, but so will most of the rest of us, so it won't tell us much.

I agreed with this.

250:

Wilwa, you're welcome to dream of me tonight if you like, it would be a bit boring (for me) as I'd much rather know the identity of LMP or Anguirel

I can see this post either way.

I think I'm going mad with paranoia...I suddenly thought, what if Wilwa, LMP and Firefoot were wolves? Firefoot attacks wilwa's revelation, then is calmed by wilwa's assurance that she (Firefoot) is an ordinary villager. Then LMP comes out with his plan for a second lynching (of an innocent). Firefoot agrees...

If she's a werewolf, this is a clever piece of suggestion.

254:

the whole double-lynching plan seems too risky

Actually, having reviewed yesterday's voting, it's quite unlikely that lmp and wilwa are both wolves, given that lmp gave her a third vote at a time when there was no Menel bandwagon to speak of. But anything is possible I suppose.

It gets interesting when my name shows up in these things. What would a werewolf's purpose be in bringing me up, suggesting that I'm innocent? Linkage to someone who seems innocent on the strength of the vote?

All that said, of the four left, I'm most suspicious of Lalaith.

[Glirdan]

All of those points are very interesting Lmp. You're right in saying that Lalaith is most suspicious and that's who my vote will probably be for once again. There's just something about her that's not quite sitting right, along with all those points. Even though she stopped her Jackyl/Hyde routine, there's still a lot of things pointing to the fact that she's the second Werewolf.

Your points on tar also make me feel a little more uneasy about her. I'm definetly keeping an eye on her from now on.

Now because of this latest bit of information, I'm leaning towards thinking that you are innocent. Why would a Wolf go out and say such things about (possibly) another lycan? For the longest time I"ve been thinking that you and Lalaith were the other two Wolves, but now I'm not so sure. If Lalaith turns out to be a Wolf, that clears you, unless the Cursed gets attacked at Night. But if she turns out to be innocent, the you definetly will be the top of my suspect list.

[Glirdan]

Well, it's time for me to make my vote. Don't expect to hear from me at all for the rest of the Day. I'm going to go visit our dear Ranger (may you rest in peace) and expect to be there all Day. *In other words I'm busy tomorrow* So here's my vote

++Lalaith

Like I said, something's not sitting right. Also read Lmp's analysis of her for further reason's of my vote. Good night all and I pray that I'm right in thinking that Lalaith is the second Wolf.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now because of this latest bit of information, I'm leaning towards thinking that you are innocent.

Well, thank you. We haven't been very helpful to each other, I fear, but maybe we can ally against the real feral fanged ones.

If Lalaith turns out to be a Wolf, that clears you, unless the Cursed gets attacked at Night.

Well, not entirely, but I appreciate the provisional confidence.

But if she turns out to be innocent, the you definetly will be the top of my suspect list.

I'll just have to take that risk. One thing's for sure: we need to get another werewolf in the next two Days, or we're in deep trouble.

[tar-ancalime]

Actually, she says that she's pretty much suspicous of all of us, leaving the whole post rather moot. But I think her charges against Glirdan look rather trumped up.

Well, it only stands to reason, doesn't it? I have four suspects and two wolves. Absent any kind of certainty (which I definitely don't have at this point), the first logical thing to do is to make out the best case against each person. It's what you're doing, what everyone is doing, and after we've done it we compare notes and then lynch someone like the bloodthirsty mob we are.

Thanks for your posts, by the way, lmp--you have certainly spent a lot more time toDAY on analysis than I have, and I'm the first to admit that all four of my cases are trumped-up to some degree. It takes time and effort to create the valuable products you villagers are so actively spurning; I've spent the better part of the day in a delicate operation by which I hope to combine the Powder of Sympathy with a juicy raw steak, in the hope of catching a wolf mid-snack.

However, some more thoughts occur to me now, having read through your and others' posts:

It still seems that the most is to be gained from looking at Glirdan, Lalaith, and lmp. In a remarkable reverse from yesterDAY's call for a double lynch, lmp now seem to be convinced of Glirdan's innocence.

Glirdan returns his trust to some degree, and the two of them have agreed that Lalaith is the most likely lycan among us. Glirdan has already voted for her, and not for the first time.

Glirdan suspects Lalaith and lmp; he reluctantly accepts lmp's contention that Lalaith is the most suspicious, but says that if she turns out innocent then lmp is at the top of his list.

lmp notes that Glirdan has suspected Lalaith too consistently for it to be a wolf double-cross; on consideration I tend to agree with that and even as I was writing my post it occurred to me that the Glirdan-Lalaith wolf duo was perhaps the weakest link in my logic; but it was the best I had and like I said, we've all got to be as open as we can about our suspicions, if for no other reason than to let others point out our errors.

As for Lalaith's actual posts, she is difficult to get a handle on. I think it's because she tends to post general strategic advice instead of specific discussion or analysis--a lot of posts in which she admits to "thinking like a wolf," for example. And anytime anyone does that, it can obviously be understood in two ways, perhaps depending on the reader's existing impression of the writer.

So:

In a reversal, lmp suspects Lalaith but not Glirdan.

Glirdan suspects lmp and Lalaith but agrees that Lalaith is the bigger threat.

And it's so hard to know just what Lalaith thinks....but I still think that these three characters are going to get my focus for the rest of the DAY. I am no longer so sure that I will vote for Glirdan, but you can bet my vote will go to one of these three.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm going to have to stop trying to predict my vote!

It occurred to me that while there is a morass of suspicion surrounding lmp, Glirdan, and Lalaith, I really only do think there's one wolf in that mix.

That leaves one wolf, and one suspect: Kitanna.

I am going in circles today!

I'll have to vote fairly soon but I'd love to hear some commentary from wilwa, Anguirel, Firefoot, and Eonwe before I do so.

[tar-ancalime]

Several DAYS ago I advised Anguirel not to try to lynch one person in order to test another. I am convinced that among lmp, Glirdan, and Lalaith there is one wolf; I am not, however, certain as to which one. Therefore I'm going to retract my earlier statement that we should lynch Glirdan in order to find out about Lalaith and lmp. This is both because lmp has pointed out a pretty serious flaw in my logic, and because I do think the advice I gave Anguirel was sound and I intend to follow it myself.

Several DAYS ago lmp began talking about Occam's Razor--the idea that all else being equal, the simplest solution is the best. I can't for the life of me find a simple solution among lmp, Glirdan, and Lalaith, so I'm going to follow that logic to its natural conclusion and it tells me that Kitanna is our third wolf. There is no one else.

So, although until toDAY I hadn't really paid her much attention at all, here goes:

++ Kitanna

[Lalaith]

Here I am. A goosegirl can have a lie in on a Sunday morning, can't she?

Celuien's death is very interesting, actually. Anguirel pointed out yesterday that she could be considered innocent because of the timing of her vote for Wayne. So her death was not as random as all that. And neither of wilwa's declared innocents were killed. Wilwa's own take on this is quite plausible - that the Ranger could have protected any one of those three.
But there are other explanations, too.
I've only skimmed through the posts so far, and I see that so far Glirdan voted for me today and Tar-a for Kitanna.
I'm not sure what to do, I really am not. For toDAY, I think we're obviously right not to vote from wilwa's list of cleared innocents. This may or may not change tomorrow.
I'm don't have time to scrutinise everyone's posts in detail right now. I'll be back later. As for the others - well, I've just seen our poor jester, mad as a bag of snakes, gibbering in the pond his hair full of goosefeathers, so I fear he may not be joining us today.
(In other words, he posted on the WW admin thread about his online issues.)

[Eonwe]

man, we so should have followed through with lmp's plan and lynched glirdan. that would have cleared up allot. no glirdan (or offense either, by the way), and the votes would be much nicer to look at. oh well.

ok, i don't have much else to say, other than

++kitanna

don't like how she talks, especially today, adn don't like how she voted. if i was a wolf, i would first in line to stab wayne. she was second.

[wilwarin538]

I to must vote early I'm afraid.

++Kitanna

Now its pretty obvious that I'm dead toNight, so this will most likely be my last post ever.

I'm thinking Glirdan and LMP are innocent.

I'd lynch Lalaith tomorrow.

Can't say much about Tar.

Sorry its so short, but I gotta run. Its been fun!

[Kitanna]

Well I'm too busy today to go back and read through everything. And it seems stupid and pointless for me now anyway.

++ Kitanna

[Firefoot]

Let's see, I don't really have to add a lot to what's been said. I'm rather confused by Kitanna's response; that is not the type of response I would have expected from her. Her vote puts the voting at:

Lalaith – 1 (Glirdan 1)
Kitanna – 4 (tar 2, Eonwe 3, Wilwa 4, Kitanna 5)

There are four votes left - myself, LMP, Ang (who has said he may not be around), and Lalaith. Right now I'd say it looks pretty certain that Kitanna's going to be the (only) one dying toDay. It seems unlikely to me that she is the Hunter, since if she were I don't think she would be quite so bitter. So tomorrow that will in all likelihood leave us with Lalaith, Glirdan, and tar (and LMP, but I really don't suspect him much. His analyses were most helpful), one or two of whom to be wolves. If Kitanna is a wolf, I will be looking at Glirdan and tar tomorrow, since, as I have said before, I doubt all three wolves voted the same way on Day 2. I probably would have preferred to lynch one of them today but that doesn't seem to be much of an option. I don't think double lynching is the best solution to the problem here; we should probably just go with Kitanna today and then take it from there.

[Lalaith]

Why did you do that Kitanna? The field was still open, there were five of us left to vote...and I for one would only have voted for you if I had to, to save myself. You're not very high on my list of suspects. Mind you, my list is a bit of a mess at the moment. Sigh. I've now read all the posts of today and I'm still not feeling at all confident about anything.

And it's so hard to know just what Lalaith thinks

Tell me about it, tar-a, today I don't know what to think. I know what tar-a means about logic going round in circles. Part of the problem is that there are still doubts swirling around in my mind, I'll feel more clear and focused tomorrow. (I'm assuming here that I will still be here tomorrow, and that poor Wilwa will be killed tonight...)
And I personally would have much preferred wilwa to dream of someone other than Eonwe, who I was already feeling fairly comfortable about.
One point I should clear up, LMP:

What would a werewolf's purpose be in bringing me up,

What I was referring to was my earlier bit of paranoia, whereby you, wilwa and Firefoot were all werewolves, I realised that my reasoning was flawed because it was unlikely for you and wilwa both to be werewolves due to voting patterns. (And of course that particular triumvirate theory has now collapsed anyway as Wayne was a wolf.)
My inclination, given my current confusion, is to go with the consensus today.

(just seen Firefoot's post, clearly as surprised by Kitanna as I am)

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Why did you do that Kitanna?

I'd like to explain the stupid and pointless thing to clear up confusion. Personally, I will not have the time to say anything for the last few days. I have a mountain of homework waiting to get done. So I feel for me to stay in and only have time to come on and vote without any reason is silly for me to do. It's not going to help anyone if I do that. That's why I voted for myself.

[Lalaith]

Ah, ok. Well maybe it's for the best then.
++KITANNA

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'd like to explain the stupid and pointless thing to clear up confusion. Personally, I will not have the time to say anything for the last few days. I have a mountain of homework waiting to get done. So I feel for me to stay in and only have time to come on and vote without any reason is silly for me to do. It's not going to help anyone if I do that. That's why I voted for myself.

In other words, Kitanna's vote for herself tells us nothing about her guilt or innocence. That's what I suspected.

I'm rather intrigued by tar's take on Occam's Razor, such that Kitanna is one werewolf, leaving Glir, Lal, & me as a "triumverate" amongst whom there is one more. On that logic, I know I'm not a werewolf (I don't expect anybody to take that at face value, decide for yourselves), I am confident that Glirdan is not a werewolf, and would like to hear more from Firefoot why she thinks he is, which leaves (of the triuverate), Lalaith as the remaining werewolf. That is, of course, presuming the innocence of tar, which is in no wise a cleared up issue for me. However, enough votes may be garnered for a double lynching again, of Kitanna & Lalaith, but only with the cooperation of Lalaith. Hah. Fat chance. Since that's the case, I might as well put in my vote for....

++ KITANNA

..... well aware that mine is the deciding vote. If she is a werewolf, my credibility is improved (though not guaranteed); if she is innocent, I suddenly look pretty bad ... again. But that's not guaranteed either.

One last thing to point out: there are two people about whom we keep on saying "says much and gives analysis but you can't determine guilt or innocence by it" - those two are Kitanna & Lalaith. But to complicate things, I find the same thing to be true of tar-ancalime. So in my opinion, which is actually only reiterating what I've said before, our two werwolves are to be found amongst those three.

Finally, thanks very much, Wilwa, for identifying a werewolf and bestowing upon us three known innocents. You have really aided the chances of a villager victory .... that is, if you're not lying through your teeth. With no Ranger, the werewolves must kill you tonight, so I bid you in advance fond rememberances: may you rest in peace, though I do not doubt it will also be in pieces.

If Wilwa survives the night, it is because the werewolves are making a desperate gambit to make her look like a liar and throw us all off the hunt. So just in case, let me suggest that Wilwa dream of Lalaith, and the Hunter pick the same. Those are suggestions, of course; I have never tried to force myself upon this group as leader, though I have been accused of it. I can't help it if you see me as a likely leader, but I have never demanded it of anyone. Just a little "bone" to pick there (coughLalaithcough).

EDIT: cross posted with Lalaith. I may have typed out my vote before she did, but that doesn't count. Therefore, the "cleared" or "not cleared" that is no guarantee now falls to Lal as much as me. Well, that's just mucky and mirey as most of this game has been, since we yet again have a bandwagon.

[wilwarin538]

Actually I have reread every post since the start of the game. I admit I might have been wrong about Lalaith. I'm going to dream of tar-a toNight, if anything to get rid of this uncertainty I now have for her.

It seems that ever since the start both Kitanna and tar-a, and Wayne for that matter were all very quiet. Though Tar and Kitanna posted a little more. It just seems like both of them have been doing a good job of avoiding suspicion, for the most part.

I think perhaps that Tar would be a better lynch choice for toMorrow.

Now that was definetely my last post.

Again, its been fun, and thanks LMP.

[Firefoot]

As for why I think Glirdan could be a wolf... it's basically because I haven't seen anything to make him seem innocent to me. He is less suspicious than tar and about the same as Lalaith right now. At this point, there are so few suspects that anyone who doesn't actually seem innocent to me is on my suspect list. Of those three, tar is my top suspect.

And even though it's pretty pointless:

++Kitanna

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Shadows had already grown long as the villagers trod to the square. The villagers had decided: Kitanna had got to be a wolf. Her vote had been rather peculiar, besides, what kind of an honest people would become a goat herder, anyway?

"Time to separate the sheep from the goats", Anguirel muttered.

"Yeah, yeah, I'm not in the mood for this now. I'm busy, so try to be quick with this, will you?" Kitanna snorted.

The villagers agreed that Kitanna's request was reasonable. Now the only question was, how they could lynch her as swiftly as possible.

"We could stone her", Wilwarin suggested.

"No, no, there's not enough rocks close at hand and it would take too long to go collecting some", tar-ancalime remarked.

"Oh, I know, we can break her back", Lalaith said pointing at thick branches on the ground, but her idea was turned down. "That wouldn't necessarily kill her instantly. It could take even minutes to get her lynched like that", Glirdan said.

"Let's just have her head and be done with it", Eonwe and littlemanpoet cried.

"You slothful slackers! I really don't have time for this", Kitanna snarled, and with that, she fell on all fours and underwent a hideous metamorphosis. In front of the villagers' eyes crouched now Kitanna in most unearthy form. Bristling her back hair the beast charged forward, but before she reached any of the gaping villagers (or Firefoot's dog), a stone of the size of a fist thwacked her between the eyes with a nasty thud. Only seconds after, the villagers had cracked Kitanna's backbone and cut her head off. It was a bloody mess, but granted, it didn't take long. The villagers had killed already their second wolf!



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord) - sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2
Kath(ord) - chopped up and organized alphabetically on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin(wolf) - burned to death on Day 3
Celuien(ranger) - mauled with musical instruments on Night 4
Kitanna(wolf) - stoned, battered and decapitated on Day 4

Score:
Villagers: 8
Wolves: 1

It is now Night 5. Wolf, Seer and Hunter, send me your picks, please. The Night ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT. Good Night, sleep tight!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

As for why I think Glirdan could be a wolf... it's basically because I haven't seen anything to make him seem innocent to me.

What about his consistent suspicion of Lalaith? Werewolves are rarely that consistent, needing to "go with the flow" of debate, unless they don't have to, of course.....

Go ahead, Spawn, I'll shut up now.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

"Let me show you the world in my eyes"

As expected, Wilwarin538 didn't show up to the square that morning. Although the villagers understood that the remaining wolf had probably been rather thorough with her, they went to call on her cabin.

Wilwarin lived in a pretty little house that had white window ledges, lace curtains and a veranda made of gingerbread. Daisies and Lilies flourished in her garden and the whole setting looked very dreamy as it bathed in the morning light. The villagers knocked on her door without getting any answer. After a little pursuit they found a key under a flower pot and opened the door.

Nothing inside the house suggested that something was wrong. Everything was nice and clean there and a dozy silence hung in the air. The group wandered around the house, but they saw no sign of Wilwarin. "Where is the poor dear", they whispered as they climbed upstairs to her bedroom. It was empty as well, but on her night table they saw her dream journal. She had been the Seer after all.

A terrible croaking and screeching outside the house broke the calm dawn and interrupted the villagers' search. They rushed downstairs, through the house and out of the door to Wilwarin's backyard. Her beautiful flower beds and vegetable patches were swarming with crows and ravens. Completely oblivious to a scarecrow in a corner of the yard, the birds squabbled over food with their feathers flying. Suddenly to the horror of the villagers, they realized that it was no scarecrow that guarded the garden so poorly, but it was their daydreamer who was impaled with a hay pole and she stared at the villagers with empty eye sockets and an agonized grimace on her fair face. Down at her feet, two crows fought for her eyes until the other one flew away with his catch.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord) - sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2
Kath(ord) - chopped up and organized alphabetically on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin(wolf) - burned to death on Day 3
Celuien(ranger) - mauled with musical instruments on Night 4
Kitanna(wolf) - stoned, battered and decapitated on Day 4
Wilwarin538(seer) - eyes plucked out and made into a scarecrow on Night 5

Score:
Villagers: 7
Wolves: 1

It is now Day 5. Wolf, you may PM with yourself if you want to. Villagers, you have a chance to end this toDay. Have fun!
Ps. Sorry about yesterDay.