Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

Just to consolidate and help in our thought I would like to include these lists. They are who voted for and were sucessful in lynching our 3 innocents

Evisse
Shelob
SpM
Kuru
the phantom
TORE


SoN
SpM
Firefoot
the phantom
holbytlass
Fordim
TORE


The phantom
Azaelia
Mormegil
Fordim
Firefoot
Shelob
SpM

Obviously nothing concrete can be gleaned from this but I think we can find at least one wolf who has voted for these two or more times.

That would point to:
Shelob
SpM
TORE
Fordim

Again it might not mean anything because the phantom and Firefoot would qualify as well, but it may be helpful therefore I set it forward.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The one thing I would take from your very good list morm is that it does seem to indicate that Shelob is more likely to be innocent than Holby and Oddwen insofar as it is in a wolf's best interest not to vote for an innocent who gets lynched, if that means you will come under suspicion (which, so far in this game, it has). That is, the best way to hide is to vote for the 'runner-up' or some other person who looks like a credible candidate for lynching, but who is never actually lynched.

Which is why I find the voting pattern for Holby and Oddwen so interesting...for each of them, two of the three people they've voted for are still alive: they've both voted for SpM, who is still to many minds the most suspect; as for their other votes, they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against Azaeilia (by Holby) or Holby (by Oddwen).

For the record, Azaeilia and Shelob both voted for TP: could one of them be a wolf, spreading her own vote to someone else to avoid too clear a pattern? Or to subtly force a tie or direct the vote the way they wanted it to go....?

[The Saucepan Man]

Thank you for those lists, mormegil.

However, by themselves, they do not tell us much (and that's not just because I appear on all three ). We need also to look at what time people voted and, most importantly, what the state of voting was when they voted. And that applies to all votes, not just those cast for known innocents. It will be instructive, for example, if someone who appears on two of your lists voted for someone else on the remaining day, but at a stage when it was pretty clear anyway that the eventual lynch victim would be lynched anyway.

What we need to do is consider, when we are looking at a vote or an accusation or a defence of another Villager is whether, given what we know now, that was something that a Werewolf would have done.

I also think that we need to bear in mind that, on Night 3, Firefoot guarded someone whom she thought might be innocent and that, having done so, she had a reasonable idea (although not a certainty) throughout Day 3 that this person was innocent.

I am sorry if what I am saying appears to be obvious, but I really think that the six remaining Villagers all need to be thinking very much along the same lines today.

I set out my theory at the beginning of today and indicated that I was pretty sure about the identity of two of the Werewolves. They remain my prime suspects (and you probably have a pretty good idea who they are from what I said). But I am willing to consider other theories and be persuaded and to review my ideas in light of my own further investigations. I hope that everyone else is prepared to do the same. It was a mistake yesterday that we did not do this. We really need to bag a Wolf today if we can, and I think that we can. So, if I see any evidence of closed-mindedness during the first half of today, I shall get very suspicious. And I hope that means that the Werewolves will have to work that little bit harder in trying to disguise themelves.

And Kuru, if you are innocent, I would implore you to keep an open mind and look back through the evidence keeping in mind what we know now. You may still decide to vote for me at the end of the day. But I would prefer that you did so having at least explored other possibilities.

[Oddwen]

Gee, here I thought I was being rather straitforward this time. You people should meet me if you think I'm quiet here.

they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against... Holby (by Oddwen).

I don't think votes are meaningless. If they don't result in their intended purpose, they at least tell something about the voter. This one isn't meaningless - I still don't like the thrashing around that happened when someone mentioned Holby's name, though she has tamed down a bit. Perhaps it's a defence strategy.

Firefoot knew one person who was innocent, perhaps we should look into that. Who did she suspect on day two and would have guarded on night three?

In post #127 she said she leaned towards the innocence of
Fordim
Morm
SpM

She was most vocal about SpM, so would this have been the way she chose?

I have to leave for work now, I'll post more tonight.

Edit: cross-posted with SpM

[mormegil]

One thing that has been stirring in my finite little mind is Holbytlass's vote for Azaelia. I know she gave a defense for it but something doesn't sit right with me. I will post an edit when I find those quotes.


Post 66

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.
My approach has been this, there are two who have said nothing Oddwen and Azaleia. And so, by the peril of numbers again, 3 out of 5 flips of a coin.....

++azaleia
I'm sure I'll be on someone's short list.

Her defense
post 126

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM. I DID get all bothered about being called a wolf on the basis of my being silent. It WAS hipocritical of me. I admit I took the easy (and cowardly) way out of yesterday's vote. I didn't hide that fact, I said it was a coin-flip.
I suppose my trying to be diplomatic has brought suspicion on me. I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent.

Could be true but I think it is worth remembering.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Odwen

She was most vocal about SpM, so would this have been the way she chose?

Well, whoever she chose to guard is innocent because she protected them from the Werewolves' fangs. But, much as I would like to say it was me, I don't think that it was. I was, at that time, not likely to be attacked by the Werewolves because I was a prime lynching suspect for the next day. Firefoot would have figured that out and so probably protected someone else.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another without removing a name from the list of "soon to be lynched" -- it was clear that though I was (and still am) garnering some no small amount of suspicion, the next to go was going to be either TP or SpM, with an outside chance of it being Kuru.

I'm not sure what this can tell us, however. If you believe it then I suppose that would be nice for me since it would demonstrate my innocence for all to see without my neck getting stretched.

But then again, I'm probably entirely wrong....

[Kuruharan]

Nice to see that you are as open minded as ever, Kuru.
-The Saucepan Man post #271

-and-

I am glad that not all the Villagers' minds are as closed as Kuru's.
-The Saucepan Man post #275

-and-

changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on
-The Saucepan Man post #280

Evidently, today’s strategy to discredit me is “Kuruharan is closed minded.”

I didn't name any names ...

-The Saucepan Man post #271

The implication was pretty thick in the air.

Anyway…

I don’t disagree with Fordim’s reasoning in post #273.

Especially this part…

I think that we have some fuzzy beasts of the more quiet variety.

I think nothing is more likely. However, I also find something said by Holbytlass to be important as well.

But that doesn't mean there is not a 'loudmouth' he-wolf out there.

I think this is pretty likely too. It is probably a mix.

Now, before I say anything else (and get accused of being closed-minded again) I’d like to ask Fordim to explain why he thinks we should go after the quiet ones first rather than the loud ones?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I’d like to ask Fordim to explain why he thinks we should go after the quiet ones first rather than the loud ones?

Simply because I am convinced we have a better shot at bagging a Wolf. At this moment, I am convinced that at least two of the following are Wolves:

Oddwen
Holbytlass
Shelob
Azaielia

Even without working to narrow it down a bit more, that gives me a 50/50 chance of bagging a fuzzy.

On the other hand, I can't imagine that there is any more than one Wolf among:

TORE
mormegil
Saucepan
Kuruharan

And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were no wolves on this list! So that gives me, at best, a one in four chance of getting it right.

So I suppose, as always, it comes back to the numbers for me: as far as I am concerned this DAY, I am twice as likely to get a Wolf from among the quiets than I am from among the loudmouths (50% versus 25%).

[Holbytlass]

Fordim, you are not on either list, does this make you the 'middle' wolf?
One thing though, lore-master, by your arguments, it could work the other way,too.
What if 2 or more of the 'loud-talkers' are wolves? The middle people's death, like Firefoot or TGWBS, would be beneficial to the loud wolves,also. And there were plenty of innocent loud-talkers to get lynched. Now that the 'loud' side is dwindling down, you have switched gears, perhaps to take the focus off of you and other loud wolves. While I still think you are right that there is a quiet wolf, I think you are smart enough to convince others to focus on the quiet group and convince everyone there is more than one 'quiet' wolf and lynch us till that wolf is found and of course killing more innocents. Not a big deal, there must always be a sacrificial wolf for the good of the team.

[Kuruharan]

I wish we hadn’t but I still think that The Phantom was a better choice than The Saucepan Man insofar as we will have the benefit of his more penetrating (and understandable) posts as we close in on the wolves.
-Fordim post #273

You seem convinced of his innocence. Why? His opinions are only of value if he is innocent and even if he is innocent he has been grievously wrong a number of times. Why are you so unwilling to consider the possibility of his guilt? You voted against him on the first day and have done everything possible to avoid it ever since. Estel’s theory becomes more appealing.

Simply because I am convinced we have a better shot at bagging a Wolf. At this moment, I am convinced that at least two of the following are Wolves:

Oddwen
Holbytlass
Shelob
Azaielia

Even without working to narrow it down a bit more, that gives me a 50/50 chance of bagging a fuzzy.
-Fordim post #289

Hmm…so you say. However, I’ve re-read posts #273 and #282 and the feeling I get from them is hesitancy. (I know this must come as a shock to you). Particularly in post #282 I find your reasoning to be faulty because there is no way the werewolves could guarantee voting for the runners up everytime. This is particularly true if the werewolves try to split their votes to cover themselves.

I’m not at all disagreeing that there is probably at least one wolf in that group but I find your picking out Holbytlass and Oddwen from that group to be questionable.

On the other hand, I can't imagine that there is any more than one Wolf among:

TORE
mormegil
Saucepan
Kuruharan

And you too for all we know. I’m not so sure about this idea.

And I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were no wolves on this list!

I find this very difficult to swallow. If we’d played about 20 games then I’d find this more credible. As it stands, I'm not going to base what may be the last day's voting on this (only a one in twenty chance of a random sample being screwy, in this case all loud males vs. all quiet females).

[mormegil]

I am putting forth my list (yet another mormegil list) of where my suspion lies. It is in order. I don't think I'll give a great deal of explination currently but mainly I want to get it out there and hopefully others will too so we can see what some of you are thinking.

1. Azaelia of Willowbotton
2. The Only Real Estel
3. Holbytlass
4. Kuruharan
5. Oddwen
6. The Saucepan Man
7. Shelob
8. Fordim
9. Mormegil

Though this is by no means a static list I just wanted to lay it down for all to see. I feel that there is a lot of wiggle room between number 4 to 7 and 8 to a lesser degree. Again that's not to say that 1 to 3 are set and that's who I'm voting for they could definately change come voting time.

[Kuruharan]

I don't think I'll give a great deal of explination currently but mainly I want to get it out there and hopefully others will too so we can see what some of you are thinking.

Why? There seems to be little reason to hold back.

(EDIT: I miscounted on how many people were left.)

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm currently in the middle of reviewing the entire thread, so bear with me.

One question occurred to me from the recent discussions, though:

Originally Posted by Kuru

As it stands, I'm not going to base what may be the last day's voting on this ...

Why might it be the last day's voting? Even if we lynch an innocent today and another dies in the night, there will be 5 Villagers and 4 Werewolves tomorrow.

And, by the way, I don't have a strategy to discredit you. You are one of my susepcts, yes, but I have far from made up my mind for today. You cannot deny that, for over a day now, you have been rather single-minded in directing your comments. At this stage I don't think that we can afford to be single minded, not during the first part of the day anyway. Surely it is better to review the possibilities with an open mind and then come to a conclusion.

[Kuruharan]

Why might it be the last day's voting

Because you started typing before I edited silly.

You cannot deny that, for over a day now, you have been rather single-minded in directing your comments.

In spite of Fordim's certainty paranoia, this actually speaks in my favor. At the very least it argues that my theory should be tested. I've not changed my argument since DAY TWO, even at considerable risk to myself (risk that I welcomed because it would test what I said).

At this stage I don't think that we can afford to be single minded, not during the first part of the day anyway. Surely it is better to review the possibilities with an open mind and then come to a conclusion.

As I noted above, I think my consistency in arguing this says that my theory should be put to the test.

I'm not afraid to be wrong. If you play this enough it is simply inevitable that at some point you will be hilariously and spectacularly wrong. When that happens you have a good laugh at yourself when everything is over (along with everybody else, no doubt) and that is that. However, when you are "in the village", if you are convinced of something it is best to argue for it as best you know how. What benefit is it to you or anybody else to be timid about it? The people who continually try to deflect you likely have something to hide. The possibility of uncovering them alone makes it worth trying if somebody is adamant about something.

[The Only Real Estel]

I am, like SpM, trying to review the thread right now but I do have a few things to say in response to some of the things that have been voiced lately.

Originally posted by Fordim"

At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another

Although I believe I did include the phrase 'if I am not killed during the night' in two of my earlier posts, I stopped that because I began to realize a simple fact - it would take an incredibly stupid werewolf to waste a kill on me during the night. In fact, I don't think that any werewolf would waste a kill on any of the 'loudmouths,' we have all been hanging some suspicions out there about eachother, & if you draw on common sense it would be wise for the wolves to leave those innocents that are suspicous of eachother alive so that they have targets during the DAY. Also, I think the 'loudmouths' are pointing enough fingers at one another as it is, perhaps for good reason, perhaps not.

Originally posted by Morm:

2. The Only Real Estel
Again that's not to say that 1 to 3 are set and that's who I'm voting for they could definately change come voting time

I hope so. If you've heard any especially compelling evidence against me, then please, spell it out for me & I'll give you my reasonings behind what is in question. It's so much easier to give a good defense when you know you're defending good intentions & not having to stretch to cover your tracks.

Originally posted by Kuru (questioning Fordim about his defenses of SpM):

You seem convinced of his innocence. Why? His opinions are only of value if he is innocent and even if he is innocent he has been grievously wrong a number of times. Why are you so unwilling to consider the possibility of his guilt? You voted against him on the first day and have done everything possible to avoid it ever since. Estel’s theory becomes more appealing

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim. And it is actually SoN's theory (someone that we know was innocent, for what that's worth), I just added a few things that I thought spoke to his theory.

Originally posted by Kuru:

I've not changed my argument since DAY TWO, even at considerable risk to myself (risk that I welcomed because it would test what I said).

As I noted above, I think my consistency in arguing this says that my theory should be put to the test.

He does have a good point here. I am not going to condemn Saucey solely because he has voted for three innocents, but it does bear watching. And I think perhaps Kuru has earned the right to have his theory tried out. Besides, I am not nearly convinced of SpM's innocence, and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

Originally posted by Estel:

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Originally posted by SpM:

I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour.

Of course changing your mind & theories is a part of the game. But it just didn't seem like there was all that much explanation for it, not to me at least. And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.

[Kuruharan]

I think what I want to say about Fordim’s theory is “What is the nature of the evidence?”

For this we have…

A) Holbytlass and Oddwen have only voted the same way once.
B) That Oddwen voted against Holbytlass.
C) That Fordim was to be the fall guy of the first NIGHT’s slaying.
-taken from post #273

D) That Holbytlass and Oddwen have usually voted for people who are still alive.
-taken from post #282

E) We have a better chance of getting a wolf by following Fordim’s plan if we accept his numbers.
-taken from post #289

Now I already questioned (D) by pointing out that there is no way the werewolves could guarantee that they’d always be voting for people who would survive even if they were splitting their votes. There is no particular reason to suspect Oddwen and Holbytlass on this count any more than anyone else.

A) is a tenuous point. Of course, it is not intended to be more than one point in the pattern, but I’ll say now this is hardly compelling.

B) is an argument that could as easily be used against Fordim as it relates to Saucepan Man since Fordim voted against Saucepan Man on DAY ONE.

C) this is probably not in dispute (unless one thinks we were meant to outthink ourselves), but this could mean any number of things.

E) seems to me as if Fordim is trying to play a numbers game based on nothing more than hope and gut instinct.

I’m not saying any of this to deny that there might be merit in what Fordim says. I am saying this to show that perhaps this is not the best theory that we want to act on at this critical juncture.

Now,

Here is a post that stretched to four pages in Word of evidence against The Saucepan Man. (Yes, I was tempted to repost the whole thing to make sure the villagers in question who need to read it would, but I decided to have confidence in them that they would click the link and reread it for themselves). This is not gut-instinct and numbers games. These are the actual things that The Saucepan Man has said and done and I believe they all corroborate my assertion against him. And anyone who thinks that I took him out of context, I encourage you to read the original posts themselves and see. If you think I took him out of context at some point, ask me about it and I'll try to explain (again) what I think it shows. I've got nothing to hide here.

And notice, he still has not really confessed to his role in Evisse's death. He certainly stopped berating me for it, but he never explained why he mentioned her name three (that's three) times before I ever mentioned her and then afterwards screeched to the heavens (and anybody else listening) that I was the one responsible for dragging him (kicking and screaming) into voting for Evisse. After I call him on it he tries to bury the matter.

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor. If the Saucepan Man was innocent, the first thing the werewolves would want to do would be to kill me to show that I was innocent hoping that this would drive everyone into hanging Saucepan since I'd have suddenly become something of a martyr. This hasn't happened. I submit that the reason for my still being alive is that my death would be a disaster for the werewolves because it would show that I've been telling the truth. Notice how The Saucepan Man has completely cooled on having me lynched. He's afraid of what would come out if I were.

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed. I can also say that being inflexible is no way to be a werewolf. "Inflexible" is probably one of the kinder words that Fordim and Saucepan could throw at me (and probably would like to). Saucepan, on the other hand, has been as flexible and dodgy as one could possibly please.

[mormegil]

Kuru, I have a specefic question for you. It's obvious that SpM is your prime suspect and that you are certain in your knowledge. I would like to know who would be the other two. I ask this to see if it makes sense to something that I have working in my mind right now. I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions. I would like to know who you have so I can check it out with my theory.

[Kuruharan]

Before I answer mormegil's question, there is one other thing I'd like to say.

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I. While the phantom did not encourage his lynching, I have repeatedly encouraged mine because I have a point to prove. I must also note in fairness that Evisse did not go down too tamely either. This seems to me to be the natural reaction to someone falsely accused. A villager falsely accused is naturally going to think that the person accusing them is a werewolf, and try to expose them as such. The Saucepan Man, on the other hand, has been delicately tiptoeing around the possibility of his innocence. He first started accusing me and when I started turning on him he danced about with me a bit and then tried to change the subject and eventually convinced sufficient people to hang Son of Numenor. He's not been particularly vocal against me ever since, even though if anything I've gotten louder against him. If he were innocent he should be eager to either be hung himself or to get me hanged and clear his name and hopefully uncover a werewolf.

Now,

I would like to know who would be the other two

That is a slightly more difficult question. I freely admit that I was genuinely highly suspicious of Firefoot because Saucepan seemed to be bouncing off of her to some extent and she voted against the phantom for little good reason that I could see. However, obviously this morning changed my thinking. Ever since then I've become ever more suspicious of Fordim. I started off being highly suspicious of him. Then I became pretty convinced that he was innocent. Now I'm back to suspecting him again. (How's that for being open-minded?) Estel's theory has been working on my brain. I also note that this numbers game Fordim wants to try seems to be providing more justification for him to hang more innocents. See how well it works for the werewolves. Hang somebody off that list of four he provided, which he would probably kindly narrow to two. When that person proves to be innocent he can say, "Oops, I'm terribly sorry. However, it was a 50/50 chance. Now we know for certain that the werewolf must be ------." Then -------, who is innocent, is then hung because Fordim is very smart and the ever so innocent Saucepan Man supports this. Viola! Werewolves Victorious yet again.

Then there is his reluctance to go against Saucepan, but that probably is self-evident.

However, I'm not really certain about all of this. Not like I am of Saucepan. But it is possible and I've been getting ever more suspicious.

For the third, I'm not sure at all. I'm more concerned about finally getting a decisive choice in this Saucepan issue. I'm kind of figuring that I'll worry about the third when the time comes if I'm still around. Certainly, if Saucepan proves to be a werewolf that will probably aid in the choice considerably (as well as providing the villagers with a few more "outs").

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim.

“Support” is not the word I would use; I think that we are merely heading in parallel directions. Why this might be I don’t know. If you are asking me for proof of Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).

By way of answer then…there are three possibilities:

1) Sauce is a stupid wolf. This would explain why he is constantly doing things to bring down suspicion on himself and why he narrowly escaped lynching yesterday. The problem I have with this theory is that Sauce is not stupid. I can’t be any more persuasive than that: he just ain’t.

2) Sauce is a smart wolf. For his behaviour to be that of a smart wolf, it would have to be of benefit to the other wolves. If the other wolves are part of the loudmouths, then his behaviour is not helpful to them, as he is constantly drawing attention to the loudmouthed camp (by responding to Kuru’s clear obsession with lynching him, for example) which would render him a stupid wolf, which I don’t find likely (see above). If he is a smart wolf, then, he would have to be the only loudmouthed wolf, providing cover for the quiet wolves, distracting our attention and willingly putting himself in harm’s way to give them cover.

3) Sauce is innocent.

Because I don’t find possibility number one probable, I won’t vote for him on that basis.

Because I won’t vote for an innocent, I won’t vote for him on the basis of possibility number three.

Because possibility number two involves Sauce as the lone loudmouthed wolf, with the other two hiding amongst the quiet wolves, I would rather go after the quiet wolves where I have a greater chance of nabbing a fuzzy beast than by flailing around madly amongst the loudmouthed wolves. This may look paradoxical insofar as I am saying I’d rather take my pick of 2 amongst 4 than 1 amongst 1 (that is, my choice is between, on the one hand, two of Oddwen, Azaeilia, Holbytlass and Shelob and, on the other, only one of Saucy). But the above possibilities do not hold to Saucy alone, but to all the loudmouths. So my choice is not 1 amongst 1 but 1 amongst 4 (Kuru, TORE, Sauce, morm: and yes I know I’m not in that list because I’m obviously not going to vote for myself…!!).

So you see, I have no great faith in Sauce’s innocence; nor do I have any great faith in the innocence of any of the loudmouths (except myself): but I do know that there is at most one smart wolf in that group of four and at least two very smart wolves in the other, quieter group of four – and, yes, I still believe that it is entirely possible that all three of the monsters are of the quiet variety.

At any event, this will be my last chance to post until tomorrow morning, when I will only be able to get on again briefly at around 8 EDT before I shall be tied up again for the rest of the day, so it looks like I shall have to review all new posts at that time and then cast what will likely be among the first votes. All I can say is that I have yet to see any of the quiet villagers do or say anything to dispel my suspicions about them. To the loudmouthed villagers I will say this:

We’ve been carrying on this way for the length of the game and have yet to bag a wolf. Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way. In either case, I would suggest that the time has come to shift our focus elsewhere. No matter where the wolves may be, keeping on as we have been is clearly only to their benefit.

[Kuruharan]

If you are asking me for proof of Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).

Then let's find out! That is the whole point!

Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way.

...or we are flatly refusing to finish our lines of enquiry! What is so wrong about testing my theory? Even if you think there might be only one loud wolf, don't you think it might be worthwhile to try this line of reasoning rather than wimping out and going someplace else and avoiding (if you are innocent) what you may perceive as a hard choice? Is is not as if you won't have another chance to test your theory even if I am wrong.

I hope the above post shows why I am growing increasingly suspicious of Fordim. He seems more intent on playing his numbers game than actually looking at the evidence and making a choice. That way he can appear to be innocent and say it was "just the odds."

However, I am in no way encouraging that Fordim be lynched tonight. My target is Saucepan Man. I felt the need to point out the problems in Fordim's reasoning.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have reviewed the entire thread and shall share my conclusions.

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length. I have little time, and more important things to say. My posts are there for all to see and I am happy to stand by them. Before moving on, though, I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN. In fact, I think that I have been fairly forthright about this. It is the only real evidence against me. The rest is pure speculation or, at worst (for me), statements that can be taken one way or the other. And, if we are to condemn people for having wrongly accused or voted against innocents, then we should look at everyone who has strongly accused or voted against not only Evisse and SoN, but also the phantom and Firefoot. Which is just about the entire village.

Now to more important matters.

First off, I remain pretty sure that Fordim is innocent. I did begin to doubt him again overnight, given that he outlined the "shortlist" of the phantom, The Only Real Estel and me fairly early on yesterday. But, as I have said, he did it too obviously for me to really set much store by that. There are others that did it far more subtly. Also, Firefoot effectively defended three people on a number of occasions yesterday by indicating that she found them less suspicious of others. They were Fordim, The Only Real Estel and me. I believe that Fordim was the beneficiary of Firefoot's Guardinaship on NIGHT 2 because (1) she already suspected him as being innocent, (2) he would have been an obvious choice for a Werewolf assault, and (3) because, on DAY 3, she not only defended him but echoed his reasoning in her own posts. I think that she felt that she could probably trust him.

But who is guilty?

I was fully prepared to find some evidence to dispel my suspicions over Kuruharan. I have found none. And now his determination not to consider any possibility other than that he is right and his insistence, verging on the evangelical, that I am a Werewolf and should be lynched (even though I have, as he says, gone easy on him in recent times) confirms my suspicions. I am convinced that Kuruharan is a Werewolf.

I don't think that anyone has cast doubts in mormegil's direction yet, not serious ones anyway. Well, I am about to.

But I am getting ahead of myself. Here's what I believe has happened so far.

On DAY 1, mormegil mentioned fairly early on that he suspected SoN and the phantom (both known innocents). He settled on the phantom, and pretty much argued for the phantom to be lynched from then on up to the end of DAY 3. Kuru, meanwhile, stayed fairly quiet for the first half of the day, posting every so often, but remaining non-committal and saying little of help to the village. I think that the Werewolves had identified their first victims as the phantom, Fordim and me, and perhaps Kuru was planning on gunning for Fordim or me on DAY 1. But when the opportunity presented itself to have Evisse lynched (as a result of Shelob's vote and my speculation), he took it. He was the first to point out the "hedging" elements in her posts and made out that these seemed to implicate her. In fact, I think that (knowing her to be innocent, which I did not), he cottoned on to the fact that she might be the Seer. After all, he's not stupid, our Kuru. They could not be sure, though, so mormegil voted for the phantom, and was probably quite please to see that both Fordim and I had attracted a vote each too by that stage. Kuruharan's vote for Evisse gave her 3 votes to tie with the phantom at that stage and, with Fordim and I there too, the Werewolves must have been fairly happy at that point. The voting then went against Evisse, and she was the one lynched.

DAY 2 opened with mormegil bringing up the fact that TGWBS's death overnight implicated Fordim. He tried to make out that this was not the way that it should necessarily be seen, but he put the idea in everyone's heads. Shortly afterwards, Kuru seized on what he thought were inopportune words by Fordim in order to try and implicate him. But the two of them spent most of the day between them trying to implicate the phantom and I. Mormegil carried on with his accusations against the phantom, while it did not take long for Kuru to start stirring up suspicion against me.

One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death. He stepped up a gear when I cast suspicion on him, and again when Firefoot indicated her doubts about him. As both Oddwen and I pointed out, it was strange for him to behave like this when it was only Firefoot and I accusing him. I think that this is one of the few mistakes that he has made, but he got away with it.

I should note that, on DAY 2, mormegil and Kuru mildly pointed the finger at each other, but only mometarily and they have not otherwise come close to making any serious accusations against each other.

By the end of DAY 2, with SoN lynched, the phantom and I (the Werewolves' two chosen targets for DAY 2) both look likely suspects. The phantom because of the nature of his posts and me because I led the voting against SoN. It seemed to them that they had an opportunity to try to limit the voting to two or three innocent Villagers, thus guaranteeing that at least one innocent would be lynched (and possibly two) and that the Werewolves would be safe. As I have already indicated in my first post today, they succeeded in doing so. They decided, I believe, that one of them would go against me (the more likely suspect), while the other two would go against the phantom. They also concluded that the phantom and I would try to implicate each other. The phantom fell for that. I did not (although I had no option but to vote for him in the end).

So, on DAY 3, in his first post, mormegil put the phantom, Fordim, Firefoot and I firmly on the "shortlist", on the basis of our votes for SoN. Two on that list are known innocents, and I know one and believe the other to be innocent. Since the phantom and I were the most suspicious at that stage, they figured that we would become the centre of attention, and both of them spent the rest of the day encouraging the other Villagers to vote against one or other of us. Mormegil stubbornly ploughed his phantom furrow, while Kuruharan took great glee in making long posts against me setting out his "evidence" (see above). At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom, perhaps further seeking to implant in people's minds that there was really no other choice. But he voted against the phantom - in a good piece of timing I might add, since it tied the phantom and I on two votes. Perhaps they would get their double lynching after all. Although I suspect that mormegil was probably right when he said that he had calculated that I would probably survive and they figured that this would be the better result for the Wolves, since Kuru would have been heavily implicated if I had been lynched, whereas morm had attracted very little attention up to then.

A few more things to be said about DAY 3. Kuruharan implicated Firefoot and Shelob as my "cronies". Well, we know that Firefoot was innocent and, on this basis, I believe that Shelob may well be too.

Also, in a modestly phrased, but actually quite arrogant, post (#188, mormegil stated:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious.

The Werewolves knew that Firefoot had been successful on NIGHT 3 and that, if Firefoot was killed on NIGHT 4, we would be looking to establish who it was that she had protected. I think that mormegil was subtly trying to earn himself a little capital (as Kuru calls it) here.

Of course, one person is missing from the above summary of events. And that is our third Werewolf. This is almost certainly one of the "quiet" members of the Village. Personally, I suspect Holbytlass because she referred to the 2 Villager shortlist fairly early on on DAY 3 and questioned whether there were any other suspects. I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch. I remain, however, uncertain about the identity of the third Werewolf.

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today (as I am more certain of him than I am of mormegil).

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I shall have time to review comments tomorrow, but I shall be at work, so I can't post too much. But, unless I see compelling evidence as to why I should vote for soemone else, I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

(Apologies for the length )

[The Only Real Estel]

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies, but I cannot reply now. However, I will no doubt be kept awake until late tonight thinking about this nasty business, 'facts', & what it all means...I hope to post at least once early morning before posting a vote (which I think has to be in by 9:30 am or so central time).

[Kuruharan]

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length.

Because you can't.

I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN.

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today

-and-

I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

Good.

We are finally getting down to business.

Perhaps your buddies have given you up for lost after today. Although on the other hand it is probably pretty likely you'd be able to wriggle out of the unpleasantness that would ensue. No doubt you'll pull out the whole "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine again.

Even so, far be it from me to say anything to get myself out of the noose. I'll take it. It might be the village's last chance to see sense before it is too late.

The rest of your post, even the parts that argue against me, does not particularly concern me one way or the other. Obviously mormegil will have to speak up in his own defense if he chooses. But there is one thing.

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I certainly encourage everyone to vote against me if they think this tends to prove my guilt. However, I would ask them to bear in mind that this may be an expression of Saucepan's own hopes that he is attempting to put on me.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

Estel:

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies

If only we could hear from some of the other villagers. Most of them seem to have vanished completely.

[mormegil]

Well I thank The Saucepan Man for that post. It has helped me to decide who I am voting for. I have been vacillating on my decision today because I really didn't know for certain who was a wolf or not. As I stated I was so certain that the phantom was a wolf that I pretty much blinded myself on all others. I saw a number of things that have made me more certain that SpM is our wolf.

SpM

One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death

The first thing that I thought of when I read this is the old saying "the best defense is a good offense." Well I believe that is the SpM has done. I know that this may appear to be a knee-jerk reaction but I have suspected SpM for sometime now.

I should note that, on DAY 2, mormegil and Kuru mildly pointed the finger at each other, but only mometarily and they have not otherwise come close to making any serious accusations against each other.

It should also be noted that I have been outspoken on the phantom but have mildly pointed the finger at most everybody.

At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom

To this I can only say that I truly did waver and I spend about 20 to 30 minutes pacing before I vote because I truly did consider voting you that night and rue that I did not. The score would now be different. I didn't that night for one main reason and that is in Kuru's attack on you, one of his main points was that you kept putting the blame for Evisse's death on him and didn't take ownership of it. I believed you on this because at the time I was shocked to see that Evisse truly had hedged herself well. I actually think I had cast my vote for the phantom before the whole hedging talk came up. I say this because I remember thinking that if we had retractable votes I may have been convinced of Evisse at the time. Obviously I would have been wrong. But that is why I thought that maybe you were innocent is because Kuru almost convinced me too. Now I can see that Kuru played into your hand on that and gave you a good excuse.

My vote tonight will be for

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

[The Saucepan Man]

A few points, in no particular order:

Originally Posted by SpM

I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch.

I meant, of course, Shelob.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her. It would have been far more logical for me to go for someone like mormegil, who has never really been accused by anyone up to now. If I was a Werewolf, Firefoot is one of the last people that I would have chosen to kill.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves. To my mind, rigorous self-defence is the sign of either a a Seer/Guardian or a Werewolf. As for the Hunter, well there are time when the Hunter might be willing to die, if they are sufficiently certain that they will bag a Werewolf in the process.

Originally Posted by Kuru

We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.

I was wrong about Evisse and SoN. I had no choice in voting for the phantom, but he was not top of my list of suspects. You were wrong about Evisse and Firefoot. And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Quite early on today, mormegil said:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I am putting forth my list (yet another mormegil list) of where my suspion lies. It is in order.

I was 6th on the list, below Kuru who was 4th. Then, about 3 hours later:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions.

Without a word of explanation, mormegil has moved to a position where he is giving great credence to Kuru (who was 4th on his list) and considering me (6th on his list) a prime suspect. It was to be expected, as the two of them clearly want me to be lynched today. So does one other, but they have not yet broken cover. And now that I have made clear my suspicion of him, mormegil is able to come out and vote for me. Either it’s a “knee-jerk” reaction or mormegil planned to vote for me all along (and we all know how much mormegil dislikes knee-jerk reactions).

Originally Posted by TORE

… and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

I never said that my vote for the phantom establishes my innocence. I said that it establishes nothing. So the evidence against me is no more advanced than it was yesterday.

Originally Posted by Kuru

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor.

No it doesn’t. It suggests that you are a Werewolf, since killing you would have been the best way for the Werewolves to implicate me.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed.

Yes. The further the game goes on and you continue to insist on my guilt, the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent. But it is a valid strategy for one of the Werewolves to sacrifice him- or herself to get an innocent Villager hanged. You have said so yourself on a number of occasions previously. The longer the game goes on without a Werewolf being found, the more valid that strategy becomes.

OK, Kuru, you want me to address your “evidence” against me. I shall:

Originally Posted by Kuru

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out. At a time when I was considering her along with others, you came along and nudged me in her direction, probably because you suspected she might be the Seer. As for “going to ground”, I really do not know what you mean. Yes, I remained quiet on DAY 3, but explained at the time why I was doing that. Indeed, I stated at the outset that this was what I would be doing. I don’t really think that I could be described as “going to ground” at any other point in the game.

To summarise my case against Kuru in a nutshell:

1) He was instrumental in nudging me towards voting for Evisse.
2) His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary, starting at a time when there were no accusations against him and building up as first I, then Firefoot, accused him. I find it difficult to believe that an innocent Villager would be quite so defensive in those circumstances.
3) Since the middle of DAY 2, he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong (just as mormegil single mindedly accused the phantom until he got him lynched).

There are other points too, set out in my post above, but these are the main ones.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

Kuru is yet to address these points (or the others made in my long post above) properly.

Finally, Fordim, while your “quiet” Villager theory has some merit, I have difficulty in voting for one of them since I remain unsure which one the Werewolf might be (and I think that it’s only one). On the other hand, I am pretty much convinced of Kuru’s guilt. Your "numbers" theory points to Kuru for me.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain. But, I'm pretty sure it's him so, as far as I am concerned, the best course of action is to vote for him.

[Shelob]

My appologies for my amazing silence so far today, most of this DAY was spent in school for me and even once I got home there were too many small (but vital) things for me to do that I could only read in fits and starts and never found a chance to post.

As it stands I'm caught between seeing the merits of Kuru's plan to vote for Saucepan Man and Saucepan Man's plan to vote for Kuru...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

Given the arguments I've read (as well as what conclusions and problems I have seen while reading) I get caught quite simply at the point where
>Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf
>Saucepan Man's arguments seem more well formulated

Since behaviour is a rough science to judge by I'm currently leaning towards voting for Kuru....

I don't have a lot of time here but shall likely be back on briefly in a little less than an hour and if not at that time then during break (~9.30) I'll certainly make another appearance.

[Shelob]

Back briefly...as I said I would likely be.

I was just rereading what I had had and figured you might want an explanation (add to that the fact that I found a serious problem with my thinking and I'm back to today being a headache and a toss up)

"Given the arguments I've read (as well as what conclusions and problems I have seen while reading) I get caught quite simply at the point where
>Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf
>Saucepan Man's arguments seem more well formulated"~Shelob

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)

The second point, admittedly, comes from that fact that I was raised by a scientist...Saucepan Man's arguments seem to be much more well thought out than do Kuru's and I am therefore more willing to believe his 'facts' than Kuru's.
The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them (not time in a strictly 'time' sense, but rather time in that they would have a better overview of the whole game and so could have been planning this situation from the outset--therefore their arguments would be more well organized because they could be changed and adapted over the course of many days before ever seeing the light of day...as it were)

Seeing that problem has once again brought me back to looking vainly at my screen and wishing I had a coin...

[Holbytlass]

I have read all theories and posts and opinions that have been put forth so far, I feel like The Phantom did the other day when he believed all of them. Yesterday, I voted for SaucepanMan, today I do the same. I think we should put Kuru's idea into action.

++SaucepanMan

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her.

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves.

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves. If you are a werewolf then it is painfully obvious why you are saying this.

And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Good. I hope so, one way or the other.

the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent.

Yes. This will probably be true if you are innocent. However, that possibility should not ever be a deterrent for anybody speaking their mind. As I said, sooner or later everyone is going to be wrong, it is just going to happen. Since this is the case, there is no point in being timid because it won't save you embarassment and makes it more likely that you can be manipulated into voting for people you don't really want to. (Far be it from me to cite this game as an example).

However, it is an added bonus for me that I don't think you're innocent.

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out.

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death. (As a matter of fact he is still doing it here.) What I said before I'll say again. I became the natural target for werewolf manipulation because I did argue against Evisse. However, werewolf strategy suggests that you want to have one innocent to target later on your side in arguments for lynching innocents. I was that innocent in the case of Evisse. Once I started arguing against her, Saucepan had what he wanted and then backed up what I said (ignoring SoN for the time being) and ultimately voted for Evisse before I did (saying well before that point even that his vote was primarily down to her).

His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary

Hardly extraordinary in light of what we know about the phantom.

he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong. However, I have also said that your behavior fits werewolf strategy so well that the possibility of my being wrong is a chance I am willing to take to test my theory. I'm determined to know if I am right or not.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers. Targeting innocents with single-minded intensity is a pretty good way for them to thin their own numbers eventually. They should only turn on each other when it is absolutely unavoidable. Believe me, I know what I am talking about when I say this.
However, contrary to Saucepan's assertion...I already discussed this back in post #297.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain.

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.

this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

Indeed, perhaps you should vote against Saucepan Man this time, considering how last time turned out.

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf

-and-

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)

Exactly. I can promise you with a certain amount of authority in the matter that this is not a good way for a werewolf to behave (as I've said a few times earlier).

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them

See, you're even coming up with points against Saucepan that I hadn't thought of, why don't you vote against him? I think it is time to put my theory to the test. Remember what happened with the phantom. Saucepan did want us to go that way and look what happened.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…we’re picking up right where we left off. Two loudmouths going away at each other making it virtually guaranteed that one of them is going to get hanged today. To clarify, then:

Saucy’s theory: morm and Kuru are wolves who have been systematically going after other loudmouths with the support of one quiet wolf.

Kuru’s theory: Sauce is a werewolf and there are two more out there somewhere.

My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.

Of the three I still think, obviously, that my theory has the greatest merit . In response to the other two, I have to say that I find Sauce’s theory the more sound insofar as it takes into account a much broader picture: it makes a logical argument for the voting patterns and behaviour of the wolves as a group, rather than singling out a single person. So obviously, I think that Kuru’s theory is the less compelling – I have yet to see any real argument from him which would put the actions and votes of Sauce into a context that clearly points to his co-ordinated effort with other wolves.

Next, there are – so far – three suggested courses of action, based on these theories:

1) Lynch Kuru. If he’s a wolf, go after morm next.

2) Lynch Sauce. If he’s a wolf…I’m not sure who is being suggested as the next target, but I suspect that Sauce is right and that it would be me.

3) Lynch one of the quiet villagers, either Holby or Oddwen. If she is a wolf, then go after the other one next. Oops, wait, I’ve just seen Holby’s vote for Sauce – that tears it: she’s probably one of the quiet wolves.

And finally, one more list. What do we gain from each possible course of action if the hanged person is an innocent?

1) If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death, he’s only been defending himself so it wouldn’t prove that Sauce is a wolf. It might cast more suspicion on morm, who could be a wolf using Kuru as his innocent dupe, and possibly on TORE.

2) If we lynch Sauce and find that he’s innocent we can pretty much be certain that Kuru is either a smart wolf working with two quiet wolves, or an innocent who’s the dupe of another loudmouthed wolf (morm?).

3) If we lynch Holby and find that she’s innocent I’m not sure that anything new is learned either. Well, I won’t think that anything new is learned, but I’m sure that everyone else will be sure that you’ve found a wolf in the form of Fordim!

At any event, things are – as always – moving along very quickly and it would appear that my cogitations are perhaps pointless insofar as there are already three votes against The Saucepan Man. To this point I have tried to cast my vote in response to the votes of others, but from here on out I am going to vote the way my reasoning takes me and not strategically. To that end I here vote that we hang:

++Holbytlass

I must head off for a day of work now, and I shan’t have a chance to check in again until later this afternoon… I have no idea how I am going to concentrate on the matters at hand, however, with this going on!

[Kuruharan]

If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death

Actually, I think it would prove a lot. Particularly in light of how Saucepan was the one on DAY TWO who started coming down on me so hard and the whole "me being the target for lynching for Evisse's death" strategy.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

I agree. The innocent Villagers should be considering everyone, not just two people. There are three Werewolves after all. But if it does come down to a decision between Kuru and me, I would obviously urge you to vote for him, given how sure I am about him now.

Originally Posted by Shelob

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf

Well, he's got away with it so far. But at this stage in the game, the Werewolves can afford to lose one of their number.

Originally Posted by Shelob

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them ...

I argue for a living (er, when I'm not brewing, that is ...)

Originally Posted by Kuru

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.

True, as long as they are not prime lynching candidates. But once they are in the frame, they will want to keep the innocent Villagers who they think are unlikely to vote for them. It makes their chances of survival better. You are clever enough to realise, Kuru, that the Werewolves killing strategy will change as the game progresses. Rarely can they afford to leave it static.

Originally Posted by Kuru

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves.

It can be, or it can simply consist of rebutting points without actually putting forward any evidence. Then again, you weren't so keen to make this point yesterday when you accused me of implicating the phantom simply by virtue of defending myself. In any event, it is not just the fact of someone defending themselves that makes them suspicious. The energy that they put into it and the prevailing attitude of the Village towards them at the time must also be taken into account. It is these factors which make your Day 2 behaviour very suspicious.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death.

I would urge people to read all the posts, not just mine, take into account both arguments and form your own opinion.

Originally Posted by Kuru

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong.

You hardly give the impression of someone who thinks that he is wrong. But that is because you are wrong intentionally.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers.

As I said, there can be no single Werewolf strategy. It must adapt to circumstances. And in circumstances where the Werewolves have had virtually no votes cast against them (as is the case with you and mormegil, and probaly the third Werewolf too), the single-minded approach works well. By the time it becomes painfully apparent (as it is to me now), the Werewolves will be in a position where they can afford to lose one of their number (as they are now).

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.

So it's OK for you to admit that you might be wrong, but when I do it it's a ploy. Right.

It looks like Holbytlass is the third Werewolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I might not be around again before the deadline, so I'd best vote now.

++ KURUHARAN

Y'all know why ...

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Shelob
...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

I agree. The innocent Villagers should be considering everyone, not just two people. There are three Werewolves after all. But if it does come down to a decision between Kuru and me, I would obviously urge you to vote for him, given how sure I am about him now.

See my point? Look at what happened to the phantom and who was wrong about that.

Well, he's got away with it so far.

Only because people are not willing to take me up on my offer, something I have no control over. I want my theory to be put to the test. I want to know if I'm right or wrong. Nothing would suit me better.

You are clever enough to realise, Kuru, that the Werewolves killing strategy will change as the game progresses. Rarely can they afford to leave it static.

Hmmm...I fail to see the benefit to the werewolves to start killing at NIGHT people whose deaths would point to them. Call that silly if you wish, but...

Then again, you weren't so keen to make this point yesterday when you accused me of implicating the phantom simply by virtue of defending myself.

That is because in general principle I don't so much have a problem with this. Today, I'm urging people to make a different choice than they did last time.

In any event, it is not just the fact of someone defending themselves that makes them suspicious. The energy that they put into it and the prevailing attitude of the Village towards them at the time must also be taken into account. It is these factors which make your Day 2 behaviour very suspicious.

And in light of the experience we had with the phantom, I think this is an exonerating point in my favor.

I would urge people to read all the posts, not just mine, take into account both arguments and form your own opinion.

Odd, so do I...

You hardly give the impression of someone who thinks that he is wrong.

That is because I don't think I'm wrong. But I have acknowledged the possibility that I might be and am willing to live with the consequences if I am.

And in circumstances where the Werewolves have had virtually no votes cast against them (as is the case with you and mormegil, and probaly the third Werewolf too), the single-minded approach works well.

No, not really. The werewolves would want to preserve their numbers for as long as possible because it makes winning easier. Bringing suspicion down on themselves is not a good way to do this.

So it's OK for you to admit that you might be wrong, but when I do it it's a ploy. Right.

That's just because of your status in the village (game).

[The Only Real Estel]

Originally posted by Fordim:

1) Sauce is a stupid wolf. This would explain why he is constantly doing things to bring down suspicion on himself and why he narrowly escaped lynching yesterday. The problem I have with this theory is that Sauce is not stupid. I can’t be any more persuasive than that: he just ain’t.

Actually, it takes a very witty person (or wolf) to last as long as Sauce has under as much suspicion as he has endured. I still think he is guilty enough to merit a vote.

Originally posted by Sauce:

One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death

But remember what suspecting the last person that we lynched because he was 'to defensive' got us - just a shorter end of the stick to work with. Kuru strikes me as a very blunt character anyway, his defense methods do not suprise me or else I would post that they do, like I did with my reservations about phantom.

At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom

I was somewhat bothered by the fact that mormegil said that he would review evidence, then went ahead & cast his vote for phantom anyway; and without a word towards my argument that phantom should stay or anything. Still, I do not find him nearly as guilty as I find you at the moment.

[Shelob]

I'm still caught fairly evenly between Kuru and Saucepan Man...however one thing caught my eye:

"You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying" ~Kuru

It was for this reason (though with Saucepan Man misrepresenting me, not Kuru) that led me to vote for Saucepan Man on day 2....

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

>his arguments are very fine tuned (as I've described in an above post)
>He has three times now (twice with me and once with Kuru) been accused of misrepresenting the views/opinions of other players...If I had been accused of such I would be far more careful to insure that no one could make that accusation again...as I said before misrepresentation can only lead to confusion and, eventually, a win for the werewolves...


For such reasons I feel it to be in our best interest that I vote ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN ...though part of me still screams against it...

[Oddwen]

Erp - sorry, I got out late from work last night and didn't have time to post.

As to your suspicions of me: be suspicious, fine. If you think you've found a werewolf, you are wrong.

I've been loud in my life and I've been quiet - and quiet is by far the better. When you're not the center of attention and in demand, how you listen and what you take from it changes.

I am led to believe that there are two loudmouthed wolves and a quiet. It would indeed be foolish for all three wolves to be in one camp. My suspicions are currently strongest against SpM, Morm, and Holby.
Since, as Fordim has said, we have had no luck with in the loudmouth camp, I am willing to find a candidate from the quiet -

++HOLBYTLASS

Her frequent jests fall too close to the truth for my ears.

And where is Zali?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I believe that voting is over, though I may look kindly upon anyone who votes in the next few minutes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

...though part of me still screams against it...

So it should, so it should.

Voting's up, isn't it? You know, I'm kind of relieved ...