Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Kath]

Folwren I thought that morm's cross posting theory made sense because his and Menel's posts were only a couple of minutes apart and with the time it takes to type a post and then submit it a few minutes can pass with ease. That to me is actually a fair piece of evidence. Also, yes I'm casting doubt on mormegil, I don't trust him, but I've never said that I was suspicious of SpM. I argue with him a lot but only to get points across.

If those two are both villagers and they are both reasoning against the wolves, won't the wolves want them doubted and hopefully someday dead?

Fair point but every person in this village should be reasoning against the wolves so whoever you suspect this would hold true.

So, according to your reasoning in this paragraph, if you didn't want to vote with Morm because if he's someday lynched, you had jolly well better not vote with anybody because they may, too, turn out to be a were creature.

Not so. I don't want to be linked with mormegil because I suspect him. I'll happily be linked with various others that I believe to be innocent.

[Cailín]

The day is drawing to an end (at least, in my timezone it is ) and still there's no one really sure what to do here. Me probably least of all. Right now, everyone looks very suspicious to me.

I hate the thought that we would again lynch an innocent today and might lose two at night. Even worse should we lynch a gifted. If Alcarillo turns out to be innocent, all votes on Day 1 seem to be sort of meaningless. The wolves had nothing to worry about, so why would they? For all we know, they might have voted for each other - though I don't seriously believe that. If he's guilty, we'd know a lot more, but somehow I doubt that he is.

I still feel inclined to vote for Alca, in want of a better suspect. But I can wait a little longer.

[Cailín]

OK, now I really need to leave so I will have to cast my vote now. I hope I'm not making a huge mistake and that you will all forgive me if I am (though I trust you will not.)

++ALCARILLO

Even though I think you might be innocent, I see no other way to get a better clue. If you're innocent, I apologize. But I really do hope you have a furry problem.

(voting aside: I think mormegil and Kath are in league together. They are so hopelessly accusing each other without result - so far.)

[mormegil]

I must vote now or never.

I will vote

++Azaelia

Because I first want some votes spread out and second because I think she is guilty and I'm not sure about Alcarillo. I have a difficult time voting for somebody I don't believe guilty.

[wilwarin538]

I suppose I should vote now. Since I am not suspicious of Alcarillo I will vote for:

++ Azealia of Willowbottom

EDIT(crossposted with Mormegil)

[Folwren]

By Mormegil:
After which I quoted her and gave a reply to her post. Either you are not reading carefully or hoping that our opinions are swayed. This could be for bad or good but you caused me to raise my eyebrow when I read this. I think I will keep a closer eye on you my friend.

Was that last sentence direction to me or Menel? Couldn't quite make out...

And if it appeared that I leapt to defend you, Morm, it's because I would be very, very sorry to see you lynched, and sorrier still to find that you are a werewolf.

And now, I'm going to have to vote because I won't get a chance any later on. I'm not quite sure of Kath yet, so my vote must go the way I intended it to yesterday.

++Alcarillo

I dread that he may turn out to be innocent. But if he is not, then I will be quite happy that I suspected him from the first and stuck to it.

-- Folwren

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Could you explain a bit more exactly why you suspect wilwa, Holby? The only reasons you have given, as far as I can see, are that she seems to be "aligning" with you (whatever that means) and her vote for Bergil (which, as I said, I find the least suspicious of the Bergil votes). That does seem to me to be rather scant evidence on which to base a vote.

It is scant evidence and mostly based on gut-reactions, which is hard to defend. By aligning, I mean the wolf-tactic of getting in close with an innocent. I saw her agreeing with me as tactics and on first impressions I saw her as 'flip-flopping' which is somewhat excusable for a newbie but she's a veteran.

[Shelob]

Pheh, I've tried organizing this for a while now. You're just getting a list with my thoughts on people. Deal with it.

Folwren -- Doesn't seem particularly suspicous to me, her somewhat vehement response to Mormegil's was a little strange but while it's worth noting it's not enough to make her outstandly suspicous.

Shelob -- I know myself to be innocent, in response to Saucepan Man having me on his list of "talkative but not particularly outspoken" I'm trying, but I'm fighting a battle against nature and so don't have high hopes of looking anything except "talkative but not particularly outspoken"

Holbytlass -- I don't really see her as being suspicous. I certainly don't understand the proposed Holby-Kath connection.

Meneltarmacil -- Meneltarmacil's being 'shifty'. I certainly still suspect him but can't really get a feel for why. My best example would be that Meneltarmacil says (of Folwren)

I notice him claiming that Alcarillo is a wolf (but only after the idea was proposed earlier)

When Folwren was the first person on DAY 1 to mention Alcarillo as being suspicous.

WaynetheGoblin -- Having dropped most of my suspicions from yesterday (though the teeth comment still strikes me as strange) I notice that Wayne again posts little and specifically parallels his suspicions to those of a well trusted and outspoken person (Saucepan Man, to be more specific)

wilwarin538 -- Not sure how to feel about Wilwarin, the timing on her vote for Bergil could either be innocent-trying-to-avoid-a-tie or werewolf-trying-to-save-werewolf, it depends on whether Alcarillo's innocent or not. And even in that case her vote was early, when a tie wasn't that big a deal. If Alcarillo's guilty I'll need to look closer at her, but elsewise I think she's probably innocent.

Alcarillo -- Definately in a suspicous looking position. In the least I agree his death would likely tell us the most, however beyond his position I see little to suggest he's a werewolf.

Durelin -- Little to work with. Other than his absence today nothing particularly suspicious.

Saucepan Man -- Nothing I've been able to find suggests he's a wolf, though I doubt anything would be there if he were. As to the Phantom-Saucepan Man suggestion, I'm doubting it. It's concievable, I just don't see it. In any case those two are more helpful to keep around, if they're innocent they're a huge help in finding wolves and if one/both are guilty the longer they're around the more of their masterplan we'll be able to see if we lynch them.

Kath -- Very insistant on a few people. I figure it's too dangerous a strategy for a wolf to be using. Not to discount the possibility, her lack of reasons make her suspicious. And while I know she has since answered questions I've not yet had the time to read them carfully, until I do I feel she's worth keeping an eye on but not an immediate danger.

the phantom -- Irksomely suspicous, as always. He hasn't risen in my suspicions though, so as before with The Saucepan Man I feel that even if he is guilty his death would be more useful later.

Azaelia of Willowbottom -- People have brought up good points about her vote and it's implications, but I believe she simply panicked and went with the majority. I know that's what I'd likely do if I looked down and had a minute to vote with no real suspicions.

Cailín -- I haven't found anything particularly suspicous about Cailín. Nothing beyond the natural suspiciousness of being in our village while there are were-creatures running about.

Nilpaurion Felagund -- Hasn't really spoken enough for me to find any reason to suspect him beyond his lack of speaking.

mormegil -- I don't honestly feel that Mormegil is anything but what he appears. I haven't been able to find something to suspect him as he seems to be really helpful (which is potentially reason enough).

Gil-Galad -- Elusive. He doesn't post much (either in quantity or in information) so it's hard really suspect him.

Glirdan -- Beyond his undecidedness (trying to please everyone) I see little reason to suspect Glirdan. I feel like he's probably in much the place I am, suspected because we're not naturally agressive in taking stands yet too talkative to be ignored.


Sorry if I seem a bit short (curt might be better), I'm having scheduling issues with school which have left me ill tempered. This calmed me somewhat though so expect me back shortly once I've had some time to think more on everything that's been said, esp. theories containing more than one person.

[Holbytlass]

Scat as the evidence is, I have to vote now,

++WILWARIN

[Folwren]

It turns out that I had another hour. My dad didn't call until something like ten minute after I'd cast my vote to say that we wouldn't be leaving until 5:30 instead of 4:30. Anyhow...in my extra time, I've been doing research of the first DAY.

Before I tell you what I've gotten so far, let me call back to mind what Menel has just said today not too terribly long ago...

Originally posted by Menel:
Later, I notice him claiming that Alcarillo is a wolf (but only after the idea was proposed earlier), though it would take a very bold wolf to cast suspicion on oneself like this.

As Shelob kindly pointed out (and I went back to check it) I was the first to point out Alcarillo as questionable. Whilst going back to find out if Shelob's research was correct, I read on and found, some time after my post....

Originally posted by Menel:
Well, perhaps it's best to look at the motives behind this attack. Clearly, someone wanted Enca to die. Why would somebody want that? Alcarillo's comments are interesting, perhaps he didn't want public opinion to be swayed against him and did away with her. Or maybe tgwbs wanted to make it appear that Alcarillo was incapable of protecting the town against the wolves and bear so he would fall out of favor and tgwbs would become mayor in his place.

However, it is hard to tell at this point who is a beast and who is not. My 20-sided die (we have 21, but subtracting my name gives us an even 20), useful for choosing things at random, says Alcarillo is the one we should look at, though like I said, this choice is random.

Now who's the one claiming that Alcarillo is the wolf only after the idea's been proposed, I ask you?

This may be nothing, really, but I find it odd that he should be the one guilty of what he accuses me of.

- Folwren

[The Saucepan Man]

As I said earlier, we want the votes spread around a bit today so that, if we do catch a Wolf, they might tell us something.

Currently, six votes have been cast out of a possible eighteen. A long way to go, even if a few villagers end up not voting. At the moment, the votes stand as follows:

Alcarillo - 3
Azaelia - 2
Wilwa - 1

Let's try to give the Wolves a bit of a work-out.

++MENELTARMACIL

He seems to be trying very hard to say little that might be used to incriminate him. He tends to follow theories put forward by others, but this seems to me to done in a calculated rather than a naive manner. And, as has been pointed out, the accusations that he makes are often cobbled (no pun intended ) together from quotes taken out of context or from a (possibly deliberate) misreading of what people have said.

[Durelin]

OMG ! R s|_|ch a p0z3r....

Originally Posted by Shelob

Durelin -- Little to work with. Other than his absence today nothing particularly suspicious.

Her absence, please. Keep me from having identity issues here.

Originally Posted by Saucie

Durelin always votes for me. It's traditional.

Yes, I'm afraid it has become so... I guess I figure no one will agree with me, and thus if Saucie's innocent then I haven't killed him, and if he isn't then I can say at some point that 'I told you so...'

All I can say is, I am innocent, and completely useless. Chances are I will be killed by the wolves or the bear, being the quiet and pointless one.

I'm considering starting a lynch phantom campaign and seeing where that leads me...

Actually, I'll be back with more useless...or useful...inf0rmation soon...

[Kath]

Well looks like it's voting time for me.

++MENELTARMACIL

I chose him over mormegil because he has been at the top of my suspicion list from Day 1 and as it doesn't look like I will get any support if I go after morm, I might as well make my vote count. You all know my reasons so there's my vote.

[Gil-Galad]

i better vote before i forget

++Alcarillo


she did start the group on Bergil... and i was right about Kitanna, who knows i may be right about him/her(don't know)

[Glirdan]

I to have to leave and therefor cast my vote. It shall be...

++Alcarillo

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I've learned my lesson: Vote early. So here is my vote, before 7:29 PM...

++Alcarillo .

It's either I vote for Alcarillo or risk death myself. This being my first game since June, I'd love to live a little while longer, so I am going for the former.

Edit: Cross-posted with Glirdan.

[Shelob]

Not as soon as I expected. Ah well.

I haven't given as much though as I would have liked to all the theories which have cropped up, and given I have A. little time left to the day and B. to leave anyway I'm just going to vote.

Given how I feel about everyone I figure Alcarillo's death would tell us the most, but I really don't think he's guilty. I'd rather vote for someone whom I feel has more evidence against them, even if their death will likely tell us less. With that I'll vote

++Meneltarmacil.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Ten minutes, my sugar sweets.

[Alcarillo]

I am back from my duties as mayor!

Well, it looks like I might die soon, so I probably won't even cast a vote. If I am lynched I bequeath my position as Mayor of Swankytown to Alice, one of Nilp's alter egos.

Now to read through the previous posts. . .

[Meneltarmacil]

Okay, I'll admit I didn't look over things carefully enough when I accused Folwren earlier, and I freely admit that I was wrong about him accusing Alcarillo "after the fact." I've really been misinterpreting people's posts and thinking they meant something they didn't. I apologize for doing so, and as I really don't have much to go on, I'll vote for:

++Azaelia of Willowbottom

out of all those that already have votes. I don't really think Alcarillo's a double-bluffing beast, and I'm out of ideas as it is.

[Durelin]

That brings the count against Alcarillo to 6, I believe. 6 whole votes...

I don't like this bandwagoning. If Alcarillo turns out to be innocent, we're going to have to really look who was key in getting people to hop on the 'lynch Alcarillo' bus.

If he's guilty as sin, then I ask forgiveness for not being as *perceptive*...or something.

But I think we are making too many assumptions, which is something that can insure a wolf victory...or even more likely really, a werebear victory.

Originally Posted by Morm

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil). I would much rather kill somebody we find connected to Alcarillo and determine from their. Such as Azaelia.

I quite agree, for the most part.

Originally Posted by Azaelia

It's either I vote for him or risk death myself. This being my first game since June, I'd love to live a little while longer, so I am going for the former.

Now, this may be just what it is...a tad careless comment from someone who's not at all used to these situations.

This confuses me, as this comment almost makes me sure of her innocence, in one way. But in another...it makes me a little more suspicious of her. Not enough for a lynching...but it seems like Alcarillo's fate is sealed anyway.

Am I correct to say that the phantom was the first to vote for Alc? If so, tis very interesting... But I'd rather look at who voted just a little later, bringing it to a bandwagon. And that brings me to look at Folwren. Her vote is very interesting. She voted for Alcarillo following two votes for Azaelia, bringing ahead again (or behind, depending on how you look at it).

Therefore...

++Folwren

Not that it will do much good...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Voting is finished. Expect a death post very shortly.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

It had simply been that kind of day. The villagers of Swankytown had been through it before... yesterday. Accusations flew through the air like uncalled-for and occasionally directionless pidgeons. The resident apothecary drew his customary amount of attention as he and the local mushroom harvester exhibited a fantastic display of tennis skills in the village common. It was met with many cheers and many comments of "what in the world is this accomplishing?" from the masses.

The flower-seller drew some notice for varied and sundry reasons. Perhaps it was her unnaturally good looks... perhaps it was the dead flowers that she had forgotten to remove from her plaited hair.

The zookeeper was closely watched... That may have been due to the way his facial features seemed to reflect his animal charges. His beady eyes brought to mind a rat; his blunt nose a Fordim-Warg, more commonly referred to as "pug". The greenish tinge to his skin may have been from one too many swims in the zoo's frog pond, but there had been a rumor about the village some years back that his family simply had a well-hushed strain of iguana blood. It would certainly explain those mysterious scales...

The tailor and the blacksmith also warrented some curiousity.

The mayor watched this all worriedly. He was running for re-election, of course, and all of his citizens were accumulating votes! He needed not to worry however, for when the votes poured in, the majority went to none other than himself. Alcarillo had won the day's event... in a depressing sort of way.

He steeled himself, mentally composing a speech. "And I will pass my title gracefully to Alice..." No, he thought. What about "And so I pass into history...." No, too presumptuous. The villagers heard his muttering as they hoisted him to their shoulders and carried him down the road. I always wanted to crowd surf... he thought absently. He pulled a small yellow legal pad from his anachronistic pocket and a pen from his jacket. "It has been an honor to..." No, it simply does not work for the occasion. I knew I should have hired a secretary.

The group had began to chant. He listened proudly, admiring his village's quick thinking creativity. "Kill the may-or! Kill the may-or!" they chanted, carrying him none too gently. Alcarillo began to fret. How would he ever go town in history as the greatest mayor Swankytown had ever seen if he could not compose an appropriate farewell speech to his lynch mob voters? I can do this. he thought. I didn't beat out so many other runners in the last Swankytown election extravaganza for nothing!

They had reached the recently fallen gallows. Torches were lit, as the sky had began to darken as Alcarillo's death was finalized. He was deposited with a thunk onto the muddy ground. A pitchfork found it's way into a villager's hands. It was pointed at the mayor. "We have decided to relieve you of your position, Mayor Alcariwolfo!" He began to stand to give his half composed speech and was forced to the ground. "Grovel." commanded the villagers.

"A true leader never negotiates with terrorists." he stated mayorly. This was not, of course, the reaction that the village had expected, so they stabbed him in the foot with the gardening implement. He jumped and swore. "I must tell you, my dear people, that you are making a terrible mistake. I don't suppose you could rethink this? I assure you that I would make a far better mayor next term than Alice..." They ignored this and with the spirit of all those who have ever wanted to unduly punish a politician for attempting to do his job, the villagers jumped Alcarillo. Within moments, his body was lifeless. He had not transformed. He had not sent a quick message to his counterpart, he had not made a last moment plea that his dreams be heard. He did not howl at the moon, or transform to bear in the now appearing moonlight.

Alcarillo had been nothing but an ordinary villager. The people nearly panicked when they realized that they had another night of double death to look forward to.

---------------------------------------

Dead:

Bergil (ordinary villager)
TGWBS (Hunter)
Kitanna (Cobbler)
SamwiseGamgee (Ordinary Villager)
Alcarillo (Ordinary Villager)

Alive:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Cailín
Durelin
Folwren
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
Holbytlass
Kath
Meneltarmacil
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Saucepan Man
Shelob
the phantom
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538

NIGHT time players please send your applicable PMs to Encaitare. She resumes Moddess Goddess duties now. DAY time players, quit your tomfoolery.

My apologies for the lateness of the death.

[Encaitare]

The villagers gathered once again in the square, feeling chills going down their spines that came from more than the briskness of the early morning -- for two of their friends were not present.

With jaded expressions, they made their way to Mormegil's home. It was nearly the largest in the village, second only to that of the late mayor, although they probably would not have impressed a city dweller overmuch. Yet the villagers stood in Mormegil's parlor, wondering where to look first.

"Maybe we should split up into groups to make it go faster. He's got to be around here somewhere," someone suggested grimly. But suddenly, there came a shriek from Azaelia.*

"I just felt rain!" she cried.

"We're inside, Zali," a villager said kindly, no doubt thinking that the poor girl's mind was being affected by recent events. "There it is again!" Azaelia insisted. She put a hand to her head anyway, and her fingers came away red and sticky.

In trepidation, the villagers looked up. Only a few feet over their heads was Mormegil, hung from the broken chandelier by a golden chain, much like the ones he had shown them with his anti-wolf charms. And indeed, there was a charm as well: a large heart-shaped one where his real heart ought to be.

"I knew those charms were fakes," someone complained, just as the chain snapped and morm's body came crashing to the floor. Everyone shouted and jumped back. They tried to avoid looking at the body, but a bit of white poking out of his pocket caught their eyes. It turned out that mormegil had letters in his pocket addressed to "my dear friend". Clearly morm had been corresponding with someone -- but who?

With yet another mystery upon them, the villagers trudged to the phantom's home, for he was the other who was absent. They knew they would find only a corpse inside his house, and so they tried to walk in with brave faces. But being only human (for the most part, anyway), they were again greatly shocked.

The phantom was laid on his bed as though he were a sick patient. But his abdomen was torn open and stuffed with herbs and spices so pungent that it made the villagers' senses reel -- though it was doubtless better than the stench of blood and decay that had greeted them in other cases. Upon closer inspection, they saw that the phantom's eyes had been removed and replaced with small poultices labeled "Chinchona bark."

"Too much of that can cause blindness... and death," said the Saucepan Man*, who had done business with the phantom on several occasions and knew of such matters.

"He was our Seer!" the villagers realized, eyes widening in shock. More frightened than ever, they returned to debate in the square. The wolves exchanged sly sidelong glances, and the bear laughed inside. They could scarcely contain themselves, so thrilled were they by their own cleverness.

*Remember that references to anyone aside from the deceased have no deeper meaning -- there are no hints to people's roles, of course!


Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Durelin
Saucepan Man
Kath
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
Gil-Galad
Glirdan

The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1
SamwiseGamgee (Ordinary Villager) – Killed by Hunter on NIGHT 2
TGWBS (Hunter) – Impaled by Wolves on NIGHT 2
Kitanna (Cobbler) – Given a TV closeup by Black Beorning on NIGHT 2
Alcarillo (Ordinary Villager) - Dismembered by villagers on DAY 2
Mormegil (Shirriff) - Charmed by Black Beorning on NIGHT 3
The Phantom (Seer) - Rendered blind by Wolves on NIGHT 3

It is now DAY 3. Wolves, stop PMing.

(Sorry this is a few minutes late; it took me longer than expected to write.)

[Folwren]

Horros, horrors, HORRORS! How can we survive? This is insane! Last night I wast haunted in dreams of Alcarillo swinging in his correct form from the gallows. Our Seer gone...Mormegil gone (poor chap, I liked him). Alcarillo, dead and innocent, proved many of us wrong. And now because of his death, many of us may be suspected for his vote.

What are we to do?

- Folwren

[Meneltarmacil]

Oh dear. This is not good. the phantom dead, and he was the Seer. And one of the Shirriffs too...

I'd say we're dealing with some rather intelligent werebeasts here, finding the Seer this early on. But I do think at least one of them probably voted for Alcarillo yesterDay, possibly Folwren or Gil-Galad.

If you'll excuse me, I must go calm down my elephants, who have been worried sick since this killing started.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Either the Wolves were lucky or he said something that made the Wolves uneasy.

I'll be checking on his posts now to see if anything will come up.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I think it's fair to say that this is not a great situation to be in. In fact, I would go do far to say that we are up doodoo creek with little in the way of a paddle.

However, yester-Day's lynching and the last Night's murders (grievous though they are) have cleared up quite a few things in my mind. There are now a good number of villagers who I firmly believe to be innocent. And also one or two of who's guilt I am now pretty certain.

Anyway, here's yester-Day's voting (in the usual format):

The phantom for Alcarillo (Alcarillo - 1)
Cailin for Alcarillo (Alcarillo - 2)
Mormegil for Azaelia (Alcarillo - 2; Azaelia - 1)
Wilwarin for Azaelia (Alcarillo - 2; Azaelia - 2)
Folwren for Alcarillo (Alcarillo - 3; Azaelia - 2)
Holbytlass for wilwarin (Alcarillo - 3; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1)
SpM for Meneltarmacil (Alcarillo - 3; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1; Menel - 1)
Kath for Meneltarmacil (Alcarillo - 3; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1; Menel - 2)
Gil-Galad for Alcarillo (Alcarillo - 4; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1; Menel - 2)
Glirdan for Alcarillo (Alcarillo - 5; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1; Menel - 2)
Azaelia for Alcarillo (Alcarillo - 6; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1; Menel - 2)
Shelob for Meneltarmacil (Alcarillo - 6; Azaelia - 2; wilwa - 1; Menel - 3)
Meneltarmacil for Azaelia (Alcarillo - 6; Azaelia - 3; wilwa - 1; Menel - 3)
Durelin for Folwren (Alcarillo - 6; Azaelia - 3; wilwa - 1; Menel - 3; Folwren - 1)

Did not vote:
Alcarillo
Nilpaurion
WaynetheGoblin

I am not going to say much more now, as I want to see how the Day develops.

However, I think it's pretty clear that it is vital that we kill a Beast to-Day. Otherwise the ratio of innocents to beasts will start to look extremely ominous. So I would urge all innocent Villagers to think very carefully, look over the events of the past three Nights and two Days, share your thoughts and, when it comes to it, use your vote wisely.

And that goes for the Bear too. The phantom was quite correct that it is the Bear's interests to sniff out some Wolves. And if it was true before, it is even more so now.

[Glirdan]

Mormegil!! Oh mormegil!! My good friend. I have only known you for a short time and yet I feel like I've known you forever. And now your gone! Taken from us by this horrible and gruesome fate! Why oh why!?!?

And our seer too!! How could this have happened!? How did the wolves find out the phantom was the seer? He must have had a dream about a wolf and he/she found out somehow. The phantom is far to clever to let out anything as important as that! Unless the wolves chose randomly, yet that seems highly unlikely.

The first victim of the wolves was poor Enca and she had no special role. Then it TGWBS who was the Hunter! And now our seer!? This is not just a coincidence.

And the bear! His first victim was (not counting Shelob's poor llama) Kitanna who happened to be the cobbler! And now he got a shiriff!? Coincidence? once again, I think not.

If this goes on, our village will be utterly destroyed. We need to find the werebeasts, as soon as possible. I have a few suspicons, but no concrete evidence to base them on. I will wait and see. For now, I have to get back to my sho before the cheese goes bad. I'll be bakc later on in the Day.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Mormegil!! Oh mormegil!! My good friend. I have only known you for a short time and yet I feel like I've known you forever. And now your gone! Taken from us by this horrible and gruesome fate! Why oh why!?!?

And our seer too!! How could this have happened!? How did the wolves find out the phantom was the seer?

Hmm. Methinks he doth grieve too much.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He must have had a dream about a wolf and he/she found out somehow.

I doubt it. Had he dreamed of a Wolf, he would have left a clue or two as he knew that he was a target. My guess is that he dreamed of mormegil and me. Read his posts and you'll probably see why. And it makes sense that he would dream of the two of us.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

In fact, I would go do far to say that we are up doodoo creek with little in the way of a paddle.

Hey!! You took my line!

Hindsight being 20/20 and all, to me The Phantom didn't dream about any were-creatures. Which is why he may have been relunctant to vote first day. It's a common trait for seers to not want to point fingers or vote for unknowns because given enough time they will come to know a persons hidden agenda.
And there was nothing pointing to him being a seer and rather clever of him to act as if he was talking to someone else therefore throwing the werecreatures in another direction, plain and simple, he got it cause he's too smart. Same with Mormegil.

I am very certain of the innocence of one person (other than myself) and not that I'm suspicious of you, SaucePan Man but I'll be nice and look-over the posts that may clear you.

How does the rest of you feel about the other shirrif revealing themselves? Of course, the fianl say would be up to them but it would be nice to have another known innocent.

[Folwren]

This is indeed serious. Very serious. Indeed, you will all search very deeply those who voted for Alcarillo, and I can probably tell you now, that fewer people than I will be most suspected...no one talked about it as much as I did, nor as certainly as I did. No one else was as set on getting him killed. I was obvious about it and maybe that'll help me when I saw, I honestly and absolutely thought he was a werecreature, and I myself and am absolute innocent, neither gifted nor wicked.

Today's talking will determine a lot for the future of this village. I regret to say that I will likely miss a lot of it because I am going to be extremely busy all day. I will, however, be doing my utmost to stay allert and with all the proceedings and I hope that if any defence for myself is necessary past now (which, I'm sure it is, since Menel has already half accused me *ahem*) I will be able to give it.

I apologize to every one for helping hang Alcarillo. I don't know what I can say to make you believe that I did it out of pure and true thoughts that he was a werewolf. I will say this - our village is dying. The innocent are being killed not only by the werecreatures, but also by the good villagers themselves. Even the Hunter chose an innocent. If I am killed, I will be one more good person dead and I will be leaving no trails to help you find who the evil are.

-- Folwren

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

wilwa looks a lot less suspicious now, because her tie-breaking vote on DAY 1 saved two innocents, not Wolves.

Glirdan looks more suspicious to me. What do you mean by this:

Mormegil!! Oh mormegil!! My good friend. I have only known you for a short time and yet I feel like I've known you forever. And now your gone! Taken from us by this horrible and gruesome fate! Why oh why!?!? (Glirdan in #189)

Are you trying to hint something? But what? I'm the second Shiriff, so you can't be hinting that!

But hopefully, this statement by tp might save you:

I have the same doubts about Glirdan's guilt that are expressed by SPM, Cailin, and morm [i.e, that he is innocent, just easily swayed by current opinion. (the phantom in # 132)

Too equivocal, but it might be backed by a dream. Considering your actions on DAY 1, he might have dreamt of you.

I'm not really sure, though.

About Sauce:

See how [Sauce and phantom] weave this web and we all follow. (morm in #142)

With the phantom gone, who will weave the web now?

And look how he presses his innocence by claiming that the phantom dreamed of him:

My guess is that [the phantom] dreamed of mormegil and me. Read his posts and you'll probably see why. And it makes sense that he would dream of the two of us. (Sauce in #190)

Why say this?

Searching the phantom's posts, this is all I've got:

It's too bad, because you [Sauce] are not on my suspect list and even if you were I'd be willing to let you hang around longer than my other suspects in case you were innocent so that I could benefit from your (usually) good observations. (the phantom in #115)

This is a good hint to you innocence, yes, but it is just that: a hint. Of course, that's all the Seer could give; if he said a little more, that might have been suicidal.

You are not that high on my suspect list, but I think you are not definitely innocent. Just wanted to say that.

Alas that morm had to die.

[Shelob]

Originally Posted by SPM

Hmm. Methinks he doth grieve too much.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Even though you ahve only been here I short time, it feels like I've known you for ever.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I have only known you for a short time and yet I feel like I've known you forever.

And repeats himself...

I've read quickly through the Phantom's posts, trying to gleen what I could, and I'm willing to bet that he didn't dream of a werewolf. However, like Glirdan, I doubt this was a random kill. My guess would be that either the phantom was hitting to close to home for the werewolves to feel comfortable, or that they were just trying to get rid of someone who was, to them, a nuisance and, to the rest of the village, a help.

Even in the second case though it seems likely that there would have been some reason they chose Phantom over others who fit that description.

One interesting note is that these wolves seem to have a pattern of killing people commonly associated in contrast to another person. Excluding Encaitare of course.
First they Kill TGWBS, whom we all associate with Alcarillo because of their mayoral competition. Then they turn right around and Kill The Phantom whom, I'm sure, we all connect to SPM through there numerous (very numerous) arguments and responses to each other's responses. I'm not sure if it'll be particularly helpful, but it certainly could be.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First they Kill TGWBS, whom we all associate with Alcarillo because of their mayoral competition. Then they turn right around and Kill The Phantom whom, I'm sure, we all connect to SPM through there numerous (very numerous) arguments and responses to each other's responses. I'm not sure if it'll be particularly helpful, but it certainly could be. (Shelob)

Good observation. They could be doing the same thing a second time around--not likely in my opinion, although the very fact that someone might think it's unlikely makes it plausible (ugh!)--or they did the first one to screen a Wolf with this second attack.

Or perhaps you just said that to make us look at Sauce.

All this thinking and guessing. I used to join these games just to see myself lynched . . .

[Cailín]

Uh-oh, this does not look good for us. Both one of the Shiriffs and our Seer dead. Other Shiriff, maybe you should reveal yourself? It would be most helpful to have another known innocent today...

First off, I want to apologize for being part of lynching Alcarillo. I already feared he would be innocent and I've been pondering for a long time whether to vote for him or not. I decided to do so in the end, simply because I had no other real suspects and mine would only be a second vote - anything could happen still. I made a mistake, and I'm sorry. I can't really defend myself otherwise.

I doubt the werecreatures were aware the phantom was the Seer. I agree with previous said: he did not have a dream involving something furry. So who did he dream about? Looking through his posts I'm not sure - I don't think he dreamed about Glirdan, even though he appears to be defending him. I think he did dream about morm and might have dreamed about SpM, because he'd consider both as very dangerous, should they be wolves - and he mentions both as loud players in one of his first posts. However, it's all a little too vague to be absolutely sure.

So, who to look at now?

Azaelia definitely doesn't look any less suspicious. Neither does Glirdan, for that matter. But I dare not believe both of them could be wolves, seeing how they behaved so similarly.

If the bear decided to stick to the phantom's plan, it's probably Kath - the only one really suspicious of morm. However, we cannot be sure of that.

It's a bit too early to start accusing today. But I think we all know if we don't manage to find a wolf or a bear now, this village is doomed.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

OK, I have less than even odds of coming back here, so I have to vote now.

++Glirdan

After much thought, I just don't think phantom dreamt of you. And your actions . . . they're just too strange.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If you read post #193, you'll all see that the second Shiriff has already declared himself.

Oh, I forgot: since I'll die toNIGHT--unless Kath--I mean the Ranger--protects me, I now declare that this game will have no bearing on my lynch rate. So let it be written, so let it be done.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

If you read post #193, you'll all see that the second Shiriff has already declared himself.

Oh, I forgot: since I'll die toNIGHT--unless Kath--I mean the Ranger--protects me, I now declare that this game will have no bearing on my lynch rate. So let it be written, so let it be done.

Oops, sorry. I missed that. Dang, that's no help, cause I didn't suspect Nilp anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

And there was nothing pointing to him being a seer and rather clever of him to act as if he was talking to someone else therefore throwing the werecreatures in another direction, plain and simple, he got it cause he's too smart. Same with Mormegil.

I tend to agree with this. The Wolves got lucky. And the Bear was probably trying to kill a Wolf and picked the wrong person (which would tend to point towards Kath). If s/he wasn't then s/he should have been, and certainly should now.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I am very certain of the innocence of one person (other than myself)

It would be nice if you would share your thoughts on this.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

... and not that I'm suspicious of you, SaucePan Man but I'll be nice and look-over the posts that may clear you.

OK. I'll give you some help.

As Cailín points out, the phantom specifically identified mormegil and I as experienced and outspoken villagers:

Originally Posted by the phantom

I say this because loud people always give you information to work with. Everyone knows that I am going to say plenty. The Saucepan Man and mormegil are also known for being extremely outspoken. This means that we are going to provide you with evidence to use either for us or against us. You will have an idea of where we stand.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Note that the bear did not go after one of the people who have a lot of experience with this sort of thing (SPM, morm, or I, for example).

Originally Posted by the phantom

The fact is, as "clever" as Saucy and I are, the most we can do is analyse, which is not nearly as dangerous to the wolves as what a gifted can do to them ...

It seems logical that he would dream of those that he considered to be dangerous if lyncanthropic.

I would also expect the phantom to give anyone who dared accuse him of beastliness quite a going over. As he said himself:

Concerning morm, you could very well be right but I'm inclined to disagree. morm has been in a village with me before, and so he knows that I sometimes have a tendancy to snap back at people who point a finger at me- and that I'm pretty good at convincing the rest of the village to go along with me.

Both mormegil and I voiced suspicions of him, and yet he did not bite back. Rather, a number of his comments indicate that he was inclined to trust us:

Originally Posted by the phantom

I don't really think people are following us [the phantom/SpM]. I am merely providing as much analysis as I possibly can and I am also trying to feel other people out and determine who I might want to follow, or at least give a long listen to.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Really, SP, I was hoping that we could, for once, work together without turning on each other. I think you are, perhaps, too scared of me to do such a thing. It's too bad, because you are not on my suspect list and even if you were I'd be willing to let you hang around longer than my other suspects in case you were innocent so that I could benefit from your (usually) good observations.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I don't believe I have ever been overly hostile to SP yesterday or today, and so I have not distanced myself "dramatically" as you put it.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I doubt he would have been willing to point a finger at Sauce and I the way he did if he was a wolf or bear. No, no- he would've done all he could to avoid becoming my opponent and would follow my lead so long as I was on the wrong trail (which everyone is on early in the game).

If you review his posts, you will see that mormegil and I were really the only villagers who he spoke of in a reasonably positive light - save for one comment about Shelob, whom he said he had no real reason to suspect.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And look how he presses his innocence by claiming that the phantom dreamed of him ...

Yes, I am seeking to establish my innocence. But I am not doing so for selfish reasons. Indeed, if I am low in people's suspicions, is more likely that I will be targeted by the beasts. I am doing it because I am in a position to do so and I think that it may be helpful for those who are innocent to have as many people that they feel they can trust (or at least put to the bottom of their suspect lists) as possible.

Originally Posted by Nilp again

You are not that high on my suspect list, but I think you are not definitely innocent. Just wanted to say that.

I don't expect anyone to clear me entirely on the basis of the phantom's comments. But I do think that it would be foolish to waste your time worrying about one of the few people about whom their is solid (if not decisive) evidence of innocence.

Originally Posted by Nilp once more

But hopefully, this statement by tp might save you:

That statement no more clears Glirdan than does the fact that morm, Cailin and I thought him innocent but easily swayed. I very much doubt that the phantom dreamed of Glirdan. And I, for one, am beginning to think that this "agreeing with everyone" thing is more of an act than it at first appeared.

Nilp, I am not entrely sure why you chose to reveal yourself. Glirdan's comment didn't seem to me to necessitate it. He was always very unlikely to be the other shirriff. It's your choice of course, but it seemed to me rather too early to do so in circumstances where you were not under any particular suspicion and unlikely to be lynched. A known innocent would have been much more useful later in the game, with less beasts about (assuming that we get that far), but it is alas now quite likely that you will die to-Night.

Originally Posted by Shelob

My guess would be that either the phantom was hitting to close to home for the werewolves to feel comfortable, or that they were just trying to get rid of someone who was, to them, a nuisance and, to the rest of the village, a help.

The phantom made few accusations. A sensible course, given his role. But if he did hit near the mark, that would tend to put Azaelia in the frame, since he seems to have suspected her the most.

Originally Posted by Cailín

First off, I want to apologize for being part of lynching Alcarillo.

Hey, don't worry. Innocents are bound to vote for other innocents. It is inevitable. I played my part too by suggesting that Alcarillo's death would give us information either way. And actually I think that it did (although it's a shame that he attracted quite so many votes).

There are, howver, two (and only two) villagers who have voted for a known innocent on each of the previous Days:

Azaelia of Willowbottom and
Glirdan.

Originally Posted by Cailín

It's a bit too early to start accusing today.

It may be too early to start voting (unless, like Nilp, you are unlikely to be around later), but it's never too early to start accusing. The more everyone's thoughts are shared as the Day progresses, the better shape we will be in when the time comes to vote.