TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Thinlómien]

I'm back (didn't swim, both the weather and the water were rather cold but I had fun) and I'm off to do the Alona-analysis. I have an hour to do it now so I doubt I will manage it before I go to work. I will finish it later then. I'm keeping an eye on thsi thread, so if anyone is around and feels like a chat, I'm here.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm sorry ...I am really mean to you aren't I? I've changed it for you. I heart you.

Extremely?!?!?!

Way to show me who's the boss.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I started my analysis and managed to do Day1. I have to go to work now, but I'll be back to finish my analysis - you can expect to see it in 6-7 hours. (Free feel to make your own analyses if that's not soon enough. ) Until then!

[mormegil]

Nienna:

Post 280 she is in favor of lynching Fea. Her reasoning is—“This way we can make sure we aren't lynching a gifted or even an ordo. It will give us another day to work out who the baddies are.”

Post 405 defends previous post and Hakon doesn’t look guilty those who locked in vote for him look suspicious. She doesn’t come out and say my name here but implies it.

Post 421 mildly defends Alona saying that Mac’s vote for her seems fine but Pitchwife’s doesn’t. She wonders how Pitch narrowed it down to Alona and Autume.

Post 449 votes Pitchwife our seer with this reasoning—“Pitchwife is being the most suspicious to me after his weird voting thing. Of everyone he seems the most baddie-like”

End of Day 1. She votes our seer on tenuous reasoning at best, however this cannot be held too strongly against her as ordos obviously did the same. There were a fair amount of posts I did not include because they were fluff, such as vote counts and a word cloud or something like that.

Post 498 asks me why I think the bear would only try and kill wolves…she twisted my words here as I never said that I did say that it would make a lot of sense for the bear to go for the wolves.

Post 590 does a vote summary from the previous day. My Hakon lock in feels unsettling to her.

Post 606 does a fair analysis of Hakon voters from previous day. It is important to note that Alona was among that lot…I will quote the whole post here.
“Hakon Voters:

-Morm – weird vote and retract and vote again just because Hakon commented on something Morm said pre-game

-Alona – voted early because she said she might not be around… always the possibility to retract later… thought that Hakon bringing up surveys just felt weird and agreed with what Morm says about Hakon earlier

-Sally – gave no reasoning for her vote in her vote post but in a previous post she said that she didn’t like Hakon trying to stir things up and being laid back at the same time. She said it looked squirmy (218).

-Autume (later retracted) – Didn’t give any reason for voting Hakon… not even a little. Then switched to Pitchwife (one minute before deadline to push Pitchwife over the edge) also without reason. She says she can expand on it toDay. I think it is time for that explanation.”

Post 608 does an analysis of Pitchwife voters. Wants to hear more from Shasta and Autume who retracted from Hakon and voted for Pitchwife.

Post 610 apologizes to Autume for not seeing her explanation of vote for Pitchwife, it can be found in post 494 and doesn’t help turn my suspicions of Autume one bit.

Post 658 non Hakon/Pitchwife voters…not a lot of substance here.

Post 722 votes for Shasta as he has been the most suspicious today but she recognizes that he hasn’t been around. Nienna, you seem to have a knack for voting to lynch gifted. Her substance is very weak for her vote here.

Day 2 ends. Again a lot of posts but little substance. She does more vote counts and word clouds than useful posts.

Post 858 does a post by post analysis of Sally with the conclusion that she’s not overly suspicious but does end up ¾ the way on her list

Post 921 Sally no longer looks suspicious but Shasta still does primarily because of his voting record…Hey Nienna, your voting record isn’t squeaky clean either :P

Post 937 wants clarification from Rikae as to what creepy means so she can respond to it. Defends Sally here. This has been a sudden shift from suspecting to defending her.

Post 973 defends her previous votes

Post 981 replies to Rikae with this—“I apologize for being quiet and concise. I'm sorry that it makes me seem 'creepy' but I don't think that posting more often or at greater length is a strength of mine. I am just trying to figure out who the baddies are and lynch them so that we can have a village victory.”

Post 996 Answers Rikae again with this—“I'm merely trying to figure out how to defend myself to you.”

Post 1018 says this about me—”I'm getting bear vibes off of Morm. He has discussed the bear at great length and he has done some weird voting things... mostly voting early and then the locking in of Hakon on Day One. He is just exuding bear to me at the moment.” It was later pointed out that I did not speak of the bear much. This was odd to me and seemed forced.

Post 1026 I have responded to her specifically on my vote for Hakon, which I had done previously too but she said she understands but is still suspicious of me.

Post 1052 People in certain roles will talk about their roles quite often to test the waters.

Post 1081 votes for me as I’m the most suspicious to her, what happened to Shasta here? She hasn’t at this point really considered anybody seriously and hasn’t stuck out her neck and been risky in other words she is playing it very safe.

End of Day 3 a lot more vote counts and some other fluff

Post 1124 these posts always raise red flags to me “It is sad that Shasta, our valiant Ranger is now dead, but I'm happy we have finally nabbed a wolf and the wolves lost out on a kill. This is good news.” Our valiant ranger, she is trying so hard to show us how sad she is and then has to express how good it is we bagged a wolf. This feels forced and contrived.

That is all I have on her. I feel no better about her. To highlight:

• Terrible voting record
• Lots of fluff and meaningless posts though vote counts are helpful in a sense they don’t commit to anything
• Is playing it safe and not sticking her neck out on anything
• Defends Alona at one point rather mildly yes but would a pack mate be overt in their defense.
• Has really been trying to fly under the radar but do so with a lot of the fluff posts I pointed to earlier.
• Jumped from suspecting Sally to not suspecting rather quickly and went from Shasta to me rather quickly for reasons that aren’t really valid such as me talking about the bear a lot, now I have a bit more today but prior to this I had not and my Day 1 vote for Hakon.

Overall, I don’t trust her. I think her a very likely candidate for a wolf.

[Nienna]

I'm covering for Fea at work today so I'm not going to be around until like 8pm EST just so you know.

Morm I think you are grasping with the analysis of me. I think you are worried because I've been calling you out as the Bear. I've made a few mistakes with voting but I voted based on my assumptions at the time and won't apologize for any of it. Feel free to keep analyzing me and such while I'm gone. And if you think I'm the most guilty vote for me. I'd hate to die when we could be lynching a wolf/bear but do whatever you feel necessary.

[mormegil]

By way of information here is my current read on everybody

autume-Looking fairly guilty to me
Durelin-Innocent
Formendacil-Likely Bear
Lommy-Something is not right cobbler or bear feel
Macalaure-Innocent
Mira-uncertain but could be guilty
Nerwen-possible cobbler
Nessa-Leaning guilty
Nienna-Feels guilty
Rikae-Innocent
sally-Leaning guilty

There are three I trust right now--Rikae, Mac and Durelin.
Cobbler--Nerwen is most likely followed by Lommy and Sally
Wolf- Autume, Nienna are the leading followed by Nessa, Mira and Sally
Bear--Formendacil followed by Lommy

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Extremely?!?!?!

Way to show me who's the boss.

Don't forget it either. I see your mind, you use your right wing as means to charm me and get me off guard, but with your left you seek to supplant me. Supplanter!

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The only one? Morm nearly got the chop yesterDay

I know, I know. I was talking about accusations based on his *plan*...I think.

Originally Posted by morm

I can't remember when Mira voted I think it was before Nienna and Nerwen

Actually she voted you after both of them, tying you with Alona.

I copy morm...

Cobbler
Sally? Nerwen?

Wolf
Nienna, Mira, Lommy, Nessa, Sally, autum....

Bear
morm...Lommy...

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

I mean, I must admit I'm a little partial to keeping her around because she's fun.

edit: by "a certain number of votes" I mean the highest number of votes...duh.....

[Mirandir]

So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing!

[mormegil]

It has become too quiet for my taste and I smell something foul in the air. I wish the group I think innocent would talk more. I fear that the wolves got scared because of yesterday and now they are laying low letting the tides go where they may hoping to avoid detection.

Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Durelin

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

Heh. You know I was mostly kidding about that, right?

[Thinlómien]

Morm starts to seem slightly foul to me.

Could someone explain why half of the village suspects Nerwen of cobblering? It confuses me because I get no such vibes.

Now I'm off to first have dinner and then finish the Alonalysis.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by morm

Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems.

No, morm. You just started to notice me because I talked about you.

Originally Posted by sally

Heh. You know I was mostly kidding about that, right?

Well no. I went back and looked, and I really can't see anything that tells me that.

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

Originally Posted by Mira

So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing!

What about the wolveses that are still out there?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

Ask Miracle Max, he know what 'Mostly Dead' means so he certainly should know what 'Mostly Kidding' means.

I agree with Durelin here. I don't see any jest. I see Sally doing what Rikae demonstrated she did yesterday. Keeps trying to explain things and continues to dig a bigger and bigger hole.

[Macalaure]

Commenting on the comments first, then off to analyse a bit.

What I find very awkward about morm's insistence that he has been protected is that he only (flawfully, imo) argues why the ranger would protect him, not why Shasta-ranger would protect him. (note to self: have look at Shasta if time permits.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand, that edginess was there all yesterDay too– it's mainly why I voted him.

I can't remember that I've ever seen morm non-edgy.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm not to sure what to make of this comment, because normally people just ignore such vague yet clearly enough phrased suspicions and let them be. Nienna, however, wanted an explanation to be able to defend herself and half of me says that's a sign of guilt, and the other half that it's a sign of innocence... go figure.

Sign of innocence (though I still have to take a closer look at her and make up my mind). Not only the suspected person usually ignores such petty accusations, but the average other person, too. Why risk it that the suspector elaborates on the "creepiness" and actually convinces someone of it.

"One half says it's guilty and one half says it's innocent" is a horribly vague and wolvish statement, Lommy. The people who suspect Nienna already take it as support of their view, while the non-suspicious people aren't rubbed the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Lommy

There's nothing bad in being analytical per se, but as an experienced werewolf player you should probably know that many wolves have been caught because they have explained the Night kills so smartly and effortlessly (straight from their Nightly PMs) or have managed to give the impression they think (a lot) from the wolves' prespective. I'm not saying going inside a baddie's mind and speculating stuff is bad - on the contrary - but sometimes it looks so authentical it gives off bad vibes, often for a reason. And that's why I suspect you.

This bit sounds very, very dodgy.

Originally Posted by morm

There are three I trust right now--Rikae, Mac and Durelin.

*approves*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Well no. I went back and looked, and I really can't see anything that tells me that.

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

First of all, Morm gets points for the reference.


It doesn't really matter, I just found it funny. I really didn't change the lynch, and of course I know that, but it's funny if you realize that if I hadn't been messing around yesterDay (aka the 'vote change') Morm would have been the other side of the coin and he'd have been dead. It made me giggle, that's all.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, off to do my Nienna (I mean Nessa....dang it, I keep doing that!) analysis now. Then I need to do Nienna as well so I can remember which of them has done what so I can figure out which I suspect more. (Yes, I know, Morm did one a bit ago if I remember correctly but I'd rather look at her posts myself than just see Morm's summations of her words.)

[Durelin]

Ah. Now I get what you meant, Sally, about the coin toss.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In a way I'm glad I retracted and 'changed' the outcome of the vote, because Alona's dead and we're down a wolf.

Um... ... ...

you didn't.

You retracted and locked your vote in.

Just so that's clear to everyone.

EDIT: Oh jeez, said that without reading everything, I see it's already being discussed. *is dumb*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Um... ... ...

you didn't.

You retracted and locked your vote in.

Just so that's clear to everyone.

EDIT: Oh jeez, said that without reading everything, I see it's already being discussed. *is dumb*

Meh, is all right. My fault for not putting a or something behind it as well as the ""s around changed in the first place.

[Rikae]

I thought this might be useful, at least to me:

The Alona and Morm wagons and the interaction between the two:

(Going back to Day 2 for a moment, Durelin put Alona ahead of Inzil, Sally says she thought she was
breaking a tie between them but actually re-tied Inzil with Alona, and Lommy voted Inzil at the same time,
saying Alona should be grateful - so there's a point in favor of Durie and against Sally and Lommy off the bat).

Day 3:

11:28 pm:
-Rikae calls Sally and Autume's (meaning Sally and Lommy's) retractions to save Alona suspicious (for them and
for Alona).

11:29pm:
-Morm says Alona looks suspicious based on her voting record, wonders if Rikae and Alona are wolves together.

-Sally begins defending vote retraction with "I x'd with Alona, and if you'll notice I felt dumb afterward because I didn't realize she'd retracted. And as I had said before, I was planning to break the tie if necessary."

11:30

- Morm agrees with Rikae's post about Alona and her rescuers.

11:31

- Morm asks Sally why she felt the need to "do that", presumably, save Alona.

11:32

- Sally says Rikae is too eager to suspect her (Sally).

- Alona says she had no idea anyone was going to try and save her, doesn't understand Lommy's "grateful" comment.

11:33

- Sally follows Rikae's mistake in thinking Autume, not Lommy, was the other to try and save Alona. Worth noting, less likely Sally/Lommy or Sally/Autume are last two wolves (could always be cobbler/wolf).
Tells Morm she already suspects him, "don't make it worse" - presumably he's making it worse by questioning the vote-retractors.

11:36

- Sally elaborates on the above with "Saying that I am suspicious for trying to break a tie (albeit in the wrong way, and I still hate myself for it) when I said I was going to do it ages before is horribly suspicious. I completely understand."

11:39

- Sally says she suspects Morm for grasping at straws.

11:43

- Sally: "I just think that coming out and saying "Hey, such and such is suspicious because they did exactly what they said they were going to do" is a bit silly. And really, you'll notice that I wanted to kill Morm, so I would think he wouldn't be complaining. Just sayin'. (Although when I finish with Brinn I intend to analyze Alona because I think she looks darn suspicious right now. YesterDay I didn't have a chance to look at her much and by the time I did it was too late."
(I find the implication that Morm should stay quiet about suspicions of Sally our of gratitude very weird).

11:46

- Rikae notes her mix up of Autume and Lommy.

11:50

- Form logs in and says this about Alona (among other, non-Alona talk):

Originally Posted by Form

I was more expecting, though, to wake up and find someone like Alona gone--someone making more noise, and generally more suspicious.

Speaking of Alona, her Day-End antics yesterDay definitely bear some investigation, and she definitely seemed jumpy, but it was quite weird--I was around until 10 minutes before the deadline yesterday, and although she'd accrued a lot of suspicion, I was rather surprised with I got on after and caught myself to find that she'd jumped into the tie-line and been saved by a couple bells. The whole Day-End situation is rather tangled and might well include some furry creatures.

11:51

- Alona tries to cast some suspicion on Durelin, or at least questions Durelin, for her vote post.

11:59

- Autume says: "if sally were really trying to help alona why didn't she vote for Inzil instead?" - So, Autume defending Sally on erroneous grounds.
Also says: "With that said, I think that we also need to be taking a look at alona. Obviously her vote to try and save herself makes sense. What doesn't make sense is the vote by Lommy to save her. I can't say that I've gotten any bad vibes from her at this point. I'll have to take a closer look at her toDay and see if I see anything."

12:10 am:

- Form says "Alona seems less jumpy--coached overnight by packmates?" and "Morm has come back very aggressive. Good old Morm."

12:41:

- Mac says Alona's suspicious, but not probably a wolf with Sally and Lommy. (I'm not quite sure where he gets this conclusion).

1:02:

- Alona explains to Mac why she waited until the last minute (newbie nerves, she says). Says she is wary of autume and can't read Form.

7:38:

- Nessa makes the following statement, not really Alona or Morm-related, but I find it really weird and disturbing so I include it here:

Originally Posted by Nessa

Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.

And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.

Not sure what to make of it, want to see if anyone does... it has a very detached look I don't like.

8:33:

- Autume says: "As for the last minute voting yesterDay. It really makes sense for alona to save herself." and "morm has raised some of my flags. At some point in time today I'm going to have to go back and analyze morm."
(Where did she get the idea Alona was considered suspicious for saving herself?)

9:00:

- Lommy explains her vote (Alona was neutral in her book, Inzil slightly suspicious) and says she finds Alona's smiley use suspicious.

10:01:

- Alona answers Lommy, saying she'll stop using so many smilies if it bothers her.

10:33:

- Rikae further questions Alona about Sally and Lommy saving her, and says: "I think the trio of Sally/autume/Alona just has to contain at least one wolf - I have a feeling knowing one of their roles would help sort out the others."

11:18:

- Morm says: "I agree that at least one of those 3 (Sally/autume/Alona) are wolves, if not 2 or 3 of them."

12:45:

- Rikae posts list with Alona, Sally and Autume most suspicious, Morm as "leaning innocent".

1:45 pm:

- Durelin says: "Sally, Nessa, Nienna, Mira, Lommy, alona, autume...so many to lynch, so little time...I guess I need to pick a few favorites."

1:59:

- Alona says: "So why all the scrutiny on me for the last-minute retractions? It wouldn't have made a difference whether or not it was me or Dun (is that the nickname we decided on?) who was lynched, the village would still be down an ordo toDay." (Somehow this reaction makes me all the more suspicious Lommy or Sally is eeeevil...).

2:14:

- I didn't notice this before - Durelin says to Nessa: "If you're the cobbler you should be louder and less worried about lynching a wolf." ... um, why do you say that, Durie?
Also says: "alona and autume - Jumpy, defensive, while agreeable, and highlighting new-ness. Let's see some backbone! They're probably lowest on my list if only maybe because I have no background with them." and "Rikae and Morm - I've been agreeing with them quite a bit, and am starting to feel uneasy about it."

(leaving out my long debate with Sally over her retraction-post, my Sally vote)

2:25:

- Sally analyzes Brinn, finds things she thinks could point to Morm-bear killing Brinn, but concludes "Brinn didn't say much, and her (granted mostly random) votes were both for Morm. I think Morm's not that transparent, but it could either be a setup from the bear or Morm could assume that we'd think that highly of him and use it against us."

2:41:

- Lommy tells Alona her smilies aren't annoying, just suspicious. Will think I'm innocent if one of Sally/Alona/Autume guilty, want to lynch me if they're not.

2:52:

- Lommy: "As for Sally's speculation - I can honestly see morm as a bear and doing that. But I'm still more inclined to consider Form a bear."

3:45:
- Lommy lists Morm as "leaning innocent" and Alona as "slightly suspicious"

3:46:
- Autume says "I really feel like alona and sally are innocent. alona's retraction makes sense. She thought she had to save herself. I think sally made a mistake. I can see why you might suspect her, but she's not acting like wolf-sally.

I haven't had time to analyze morm yet. However with what sally said earlier I suspect him even more."

5:41:

- Mac says: "Alona's defense in 838 doesn't convince me much.

Both Alona and morm think my Nerwen-comment is interesting, but neither contributed anything to it, so I'm taking their agreemen with suspicion."

6:00:

Alona's list:

Originally Posted by Alona

Durelin - what I posted earlier still stands - why did she vote based only on the three way tie?
morm - I had a hunch about him yesterDay, but was surprised to see that other people voted for him, too. I think I stated it was just a hunch. I'm less certain of his being evil after re-reading through Day 2, however.
autume - People think she's being chummy, I think it's just being nice. We're turning out to have a similar style so far. Still keeping an eye out, as she could be a newbie wolf, but that's less than a hunch right now.
Sally - I honestly believe it was just a mistake, though her attempt to explain it all out has created quite some confusion and, consequently, some suspicion from me.
Nerwen - unsure, but keeping an eye on her
Lommy - Grateful comment still bugs me, but other than that, I don't have a whole lot of suspicion for her at this point

7:13:

- Alona says: "This Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and Sally. It's confusing and is inadvertently adding to my suspicion of Sally. I think I'm gonna go back and do another read-through of Day 2..."

7:16:

- Sally analyzes Shasta, concludes:

Originally Posted by Sally

So really, there's not a lot here either. He suspects (or at least did yesterDay) Mira and thinks Form's shifty as well. He also hasn't left any sort of trace regarding other people; it's almost like he's trying to avoid commenting on the big issues that have been discussed in the game. It might be because he's busy, so I don't really want to lynch him toDay, but I'll be keeping an eye on him.

7:18:

- Nienna defends Sally, asks me to define creepy (actually, I find the question itself... creepy).

7:26:

- Alona no-votes.

7:33:

- Autume thanks Sally for Shasta analysis. "Thanks for the Shasta analysis sally. Definitely someone I want to keep an eye on, but I don't see anything to lynch him today. Like you said there's not a lot to go on."
Weirdish, wolf-to-cobbler-thanks-for-pointing-out-rangerish? Have to take another look.

7:43:

- Nessa makes a list, which includes:
"Alona-I just get this... Feeling from her. Like sort of a wolfish feel."
(what a thing for a wolf to say about a companion in danger - doesn't add fuel to the case, but (she probably hopes) will make her look innocent if the other dies...

"Morm-I am very impressed with. Puts himself out there, but kind of gray, rather than black or white, in terms of role."

8:11:

- Nessa no-votes, saying: "Well, I have no idea where my vote should go. It would be Alona, but I'll be sleeping at deadline, and I am loathe to vote someone who has no chance to defend themselves. Sooo....."

8:31:

- Form says: "Nessa's No-Vote is less damning than Alona's"

8:34:

- Sally votes Morm, saying he's more suspicious than the other people she's looked at toDay (Shasta and Form). Which reminds me, she basically ignored Alona, except to defend her own Alona-saving-vote-switching. That is, until:

8:35:

- Sally: "Oh, and my mind/vote is able to be changed. I'm looking at Nienna in a bit, and Alona if I feel like it."

8:37:

- Autume analyzes Morm, or rather summerizes, offering almost no opinions of her own until the end where she concludes Morm is "still suspicious".

8:42:

- Rikae analyzes Lommy, concludes: "60% innocent. Will look considerably more guilty if Alona or Morm turns out to be a wolf."

8:48:

- Rikae says: "Hmm, considering switching my vote to alona, if there is support for it... perhaps still more suspicious than Sally, and her role might shed light on some others."

8:51:

- Sally replies: "I still think Morm's a good choice for toDay, though I see your point about gleaning more from Alona's death. *shrugs* Can we kill them both?"

- Form says: "I've got Morm pushing my buttons and Alona ringing alarm bells"

8:57:

- Form replies to me:

Originally Posted by Form

Heh... well the last time I tried voting in the same direction as you, I botched it completely and went in the opposite direction. I'm also not sure I trust you, though you've been off my radar almost completely toDay. That being said, I'm amenable to voting Alona.

I'm not sure, though, that Alona's death would she more light than Sally's. Obviously, if one is a wolf and the other isn't, then the one who is a wolf is a much better catch, but if we can't tell that now--and I think we can't--then on the chance they could equally be wolves, each death would give us an entirely different set of possible related suspects.

So... if you're more suspicious of Alona, then go for her, but if you're equally suspicious, I'm not sure what the point would be. (And yes, I do see that in the quoted text you say you're "perhaps still more suspicious of [ Alona ]," but that's pretty weak preference. Can you talk yourself into a flat-out preference?)

8:57:

- Sally: "I'm worried about Nienna recently because I think the no-vote was a bit of a cop out. Sure, her main suspect has left but there's gotta be someone else she feels suspicious of by now."
Another case of mistaken identity, this time Nienna and Nessa. Would Sally fake this sort of thing? She's tricksy enough, but I don't think that's what's happening here.

9:06:

- Rikae: "As I see it, Alona's death will shed light on Sally, Autume and Lommy, while Sally's would really only reflect on Alona. Plus, the Alona-saving issue was the main source of my Sally-suspicion, anyway."

9:07:

- Sally claims to suspect both Morm and Alona (along with Nessa).

9:08:

- In response to Alona's "This Form suspicion has seemed to come not from nowhere, but definitely almost as a sidetrack from me and Sally.", Nerwen says "Right, so... we'll get back to lynching you and Sally then... if that makes you happy?"

9:12:

- Form asks me what I think a Morm-wagon would reveal.

9:16:

- I tell Form I don't suspect Morm.

9:18:

- Sally tells me to look at Autume's analysis for reasons behind Morm-wagon.

9:21:

- I tell Sally I don't see anything suspicious there.

9:28:

- Form says: "I agree with tum's reasoning to an extent--assuming that my version of how that reasoning goes is accurate. Basically, it runs thus: "Here are Morm's posts, here's what he says in a nutshell... and then out of the blue he has a serious suspicion of Formendacil, denounces him as the Bear, and votes thusly."

Insofar as I know I'm not the Bear, this puts me on edge, but the more objective case against him is in the out-of-the-blueness with which Morm's suspicion of me appears. As far as that goes, it looks quite odd indeed."

9:31:

- Morm retracts vote for Form, suspects others (including Alona) more. (Didn't notice before, but Morm retracts his Form-vote when suspected).

9:35:

- Mac makes a list: "best suspect I have, but I feel foggy about her, if you know what I mean." and "morm - probably innocent, but you never know."

9:41:

-

Originally Posted by Form

Probably going to vote Alona at this point, though I'm willing to contribute to a Sally-waggon if we want the second-most votes (in case of tying or last-minute flurries) to belong to someone else suspicious seeming. If the Alona-defence returns last minute again, I'd be willing to settle for a Sally kill.

9:43:

-

Originally Posted by Sally

Heck, if anything I'll be switching to Alona. Morm's just at the top of my list.

Sally's talk about switching to Alona isn't very convincing, I'd say.

- Nienna "getting bear vibes" off Morm, for discussing bear and for locking Hakon vote.
Weak reasons, looks suspicious.

9:50:

- Autume votes for Morm.

9:52:

- Rikae switches from Sally to Alona.

9:54:

- Mira says Form talked about the bear more than Morm.

10:03:

- Form votes Alona.

- Mac votes Alona.

10:35:

- Nienna votes for Morm ("he is the most suspicious to me right now")

10:42:

- Morm votes Alona, asks why people expect him. (That still amuses me, sorry Morm!)

10:52:

- Durelin votes for Alona.

10:54:

- Nerwen votes for Morm. "
I can't claim that I really know what I'm doing here, though..."

10:55:

- Mira votes for Morm.
"Unfortunately I was going to say the same thing Nerwen did. Voting for someone else who I find suspicious at this point would be a throw-away."


Conclusions:

So, Morm and Rikae, and to some extent, Mac, get the Alona-wagon rolling, and Form climbs into it along the way. Durelin voted Alona on day 2 as well, and was breaking tie then - ties Alona with Morm yesterDay.
Sally and Autume really responsible for getting Mormwagon rolling. Nienna makes one post about "bear vibes" late in day, then joins in. Mira and Nerwen jump in at the last minute.

Durelin looks very unwolfish. Lommy looks unwolfish for the natural, sort of uneven way her suspicions develop over the course of the day, but something about her is perhaps... bearish?
If wolfishness were candy, Sally would be an atomic fireball. Even if she's just a cobbler, we don't need a cobbler cobbling around in the endgame and self-voting or something. Autume looks
evil, but seems less likely to be a wolf along with Sally (wolf and cobbler combo, I think). Nessa and Nienna are lurkish and non-committal and both good bets for the third wolf - especially Nessa. Mira might
just be too busy - although still a possible wolf.
I disagree with those who say two wolves wouldn't no-vote together. Why shouldn't they? Newbie wolves might not know better, and experienced or more careful wolves would realize that everyone would
decide "two wolves wouldn't do that" anyway.
Nienna could be more ursine than canine, actually. Her Morm-voting reasons, though, are quite weak - and would a bear forego a chance to lynch a wolf in favor of a trumped-up case on an ordo (assuming Nienna
also thought Alona was wolfish)? Maybe. Looking too innocent would make her a likely wolf-kill, after all.

Right now I'm most likely to vote for Autume or Sally.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I really don't see why people find my giving a valid reason for votes(or no-votes) suspicious. Voting while someone is unable to defend themselves has already lost us more innocents than baddies.

[Macalaure]

Of and about Alona
(I'm leaving out the interaction with Rikae, morm, and Durelin because I'm already convinced enough they're innocent)


Day1

Alona is one who criticises Nerwen for writing backwards most (could be staged). (+1 baddie-point)

Originally Posted by Nienna

I agree that Mac's vote for Alona seems fine while Pitchwife's seems a little desperate to join a bandwagon. I'm still trying to find out how he narrowed it down to Tum and Alona... but that worries me a bit.

Not sure what to make of this. This comment made Pitch change his vote, although that was largely due to an overreaction of his. (+1 baddie-point)

Form thinks back and forth about Alona and Nessa, and his choice for Nessa can be interpreted suspiciously. (+1 baddie-point)


Day2

A lot of buddiness with Mira in the beginning. (+1 baddie-point)

Lommy says she keeps on mixing Nessa, autume, and Alona up. I've seen fellows do similar things to make people think they're not in it together. She later repeats it (only for Alona, not for the other two, check #671) (total of +2 baddie-points)

Originally Posted by Nienna

-Alona – voted early because she said she might not be around… always the possibility to retract later… thought that Hakon bringing up surveys just felt weird and agreed with what Morm says about Hakon earlier

Suspiciously neutral statement (+2 baddie-points)

Originally Posted by Form

alonariel Very little substance as yet. She has at least the face value of making an effort to be useful, but fairly little to go by. In her favour, this could be the result of lack of time--and yesterday, Day 1, I'm hardly one to fault.

Keeping her safely in the middle (+1 baddie-point)

A lot more buddiness with Autume (+1 baddie-point)

#630/632 could be staged, but otherwise makes Sally look innocent, since a wolf usually knows what her fellows voted like (+1 baddie-point, +2 goodie-points)

Form follows up after Rikae mentions Alona and Autume's buddiness and defends both in a suspicious "it is eerie, but"-way (+2 baddie-points)

Nessa votes Alona, putting her into completely unnecessary danger considering the voting (+3 goodie-points)

Originally Posted by Lommy

Alona is more or less completely under my radar.

Since this is used as an excuse for not voting for her: (+1 baddie-point)

Sally retracts to save Alona at the last minute (+2 baddie-points)

Lommy retracts to save Alona at the last minute (+2 baddie-points), however, her "grateful" comment doesn't look like something a wolf would dare to do (+2 goodie-points)


Day3

Sally digs herself a nice deep hole while trying to defend her retraction and vote for Inzil (+2 baddie-points, but +1 goodie-point because a wolf would have carefully rehearsed a credible story)

Form thought the bear might kill Alona (+1 baddie-point) The last paragraph of #810 is strange (+1 baddie-point)

#814: Autume says we need to look at Alona, but twists it so that Lommy and Sally look more watchworthy in the end. She later thinks Sally is innocent and doesn't know what to do with Lommy (+1 baddie-point)

#824 Form makes a remark concerning Alona being coached (+1 goodie-point)

#838 Alona suspects neither Sally nor Lommy (+1 baddie-point each) She's wary of autume (+1 goodie point) and can't read Form (+1 baddie-point). Picks up my point about Nerwen being the bear (+1 goodie-point)

Lommy gives a believable explanation for her retraction (+1 goodie-point) "Alona's use of smileys is kind of disturbing." Eh? Anyway, Alona is surprisingly offended by that comment. (+1 goodie-point)

Autume mixed up the voting (+1 goodie-point, again, because a wolf would know such things)

Lommy declares Alona slightly suspicious (+1 goodie-point, but +1 baddie-point for keeping her in the middle), also (+1 baddie-point) for repeatedly throwing Alona and Autume into one box.

Autume says Alona is innocent (+1 baddie-point)

Originally Posted by Lommy

Other options? Voting Alona or Autume based on a general feeling without knowing their styles? Voting Form because of a mere fix idée? Voting Sally or Rikae?

Fishy (+1 baddie-point)

#918: Alona narrows the list down to Durelin and morm, and Autume, Sally, Nerwen, and Lommy. The suspicion for each is rather vague. She defends the chumminess with Autume, defends Sally more than she suspects her, is very generic about Nerwen. She keeps Lommy's "grateful" comment around, but says she doesn't have anything else. (+1 baddie-point for all but Nerwen)

Alona attacks Lommy for bringing up Form (+2 baddie-points for Form) (+2 goodie-points for Lommy)

Nessa is suspicious of Alona but doesn't vote. If she doesn't intend to vote for her, why carry her around as your prime suspect? (+1 baddie-point, +1 goodie-point)

#966 Form starts out finding Alona suspicious and then.. makes us pity her? Later re-states that Alona rings his alarm-bells (+1 baddie-point, +2 goodie-points)

Originally Posted by Form

So... if you're more suspicious of Alona, then go for her, but if you're equally suspicious, I'm not sure what the point would be.
...
Can you talk yourself into a flat-out preference?

(+2 baddie-points)

Sally is suspicious of Alona, too, but more of morm. (+1 goodie-point)

#994 (+2 baddie-points) for Form, again.

Then later again, he says he's probably going to vote for her and that she's his first choice. (+1 goodie-point)

And votes for her at a crucial point, but combined with his talk before, I see this as a possible wolf-on-wolf vote. It was obvious at this point that Alona was a goner sooner or later anyway (+3 goodie-points, +1 baddie-point)

#1069 He still wants to retract (+1 baddie-point)

#1098 Nerwen "somehow" chooses morm (+1 baddie-point) - not more than that because trying to save her at this point is risky

I will also add (+1 baddie point) for the morm-votes of Sally, (+3) for the ones of Autume, Nienna, and Mira.


And that makes:

Form 16:7 (+9 to evilness)
Nienna 6:0 (+6 to evilness)
Autume 7:2 (+5 to evilness)
Mira 4:0 (+4 to evilness)
Sally 8:4 (+4 to evilness)
Lommy 10:7 (+3 to evilness)
Nerwen 3:0 (+3 to evilness)
Nessa 1:4 (+3 to goodness)

[Durelin]

Lommy's vote on Day 2 is the most...confusing. If she is a wolf, would she have been that obvious and that concerned with saving her companion? Everyone's saying she seems like a bear, but what reason would she have for saving alona (and morm as she said she wanted to)? Unless she really wanted Inziladun dead for some reason, and instead voted him under the pretenses of wanting to save people.

Sally in general is confusing.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Durelin says to Nessa: "If you're the cobbler you should be louder and less worried about lynching a wolf." ... um, why do you say that, Durie?

She's another who has a cobbler-ish feel to her in that she rather un-commited and unwilling to really suspect someone (as if she's afraid to), but is just not having enough effect on the game if you know what I mean. I feel that if you're a cobbler, you shouldn't be a wallflower.

Interesting point - Mira votes morm after pseudo-defending him by saying that Form talked more about the bear than morm did.

autume-Sally is a definite connection...I have agreed with a lot of people on thinking Sally seems cobblerish, but what doesn't make sense to me is autume being and wolf and Sally being a cobbler. Why would autume-wolf bother to defend Sally-cobbler as much as she did, rather than go after Sally to distract from alona?

If autume and Sally are indeed evil, it makes the most sense if they are both wolves.

I don't think Sally is a wolf with Nienna. She could be a wolf with Nessa.

Random thoughts...hopefully more later...

[Rikae]

What about Nessa's defensiveness? Not equal, though, to Nienna's.

I'm not so sure about some of your earlier Form reasoning there, Mac... nor why alona's genericness doesn't give Nerwen a baddie point... and Sally's "suspicions" of alona look like very half-hearted attempts to cover her tracks to me, and should merit a baddie, not a goodie, point. Not sure about the statistics, but it's an interesting analysis anyway. I'll have to give it more thought after I get some actual work done around here...

(Did Boro give instructions to people with similar names to play similarly in this game? Nienna and Nessa playing it safe and sleeping under the reindeer, Alona and Autume both acting wolfishly newbieish, Morm and Form under fire as possible bears...? )

EDIT: X'd with Durelin

[mormegil]

Sally follows Rikae's mistake in thinking Autume, not Lommy, was the other to try and save Alona. Worth noting, less likely Sally/Lommy or Sally/Autume are last two wolves (could always be cobbler/wolf).

This has some Merit and probably valid but Sally is at the heart of both of these questions.

Nessa makes the following statement, not really Alona or Morm-related, but I find it really weird and disturbing so I include it here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessa
Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.

And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.
Not sure what to make of it, want to see if anyone does... it has a very detached look I don't like.

I agree and it is similar to what I said earlier and Nienna. It’s overly dramatic maybe and an attempt to show how concerned they are, when they really aren’t.

- Form asks me what I think a Morm-wagon would reveal.

Talk about testing the water in a non-committal way. I now remember this and thought it strange at the time, but it got pushed to the back of my mind.

Overall Rikae a good analysis. The conclusion forgoes any mention of Formendacil. I think you have come to the same conclusion I have and that is Sally needs to go. She is either a wolf or the cobbler. Just too many things add up to it.

Sorry I started to read Rikae’s novel and then got busy at work with interviews and what not so if there are posts after I have not read them at this point.

[Rikae]

Durelin - What I don't understand is why you're giving the cobbler advice (or does it just look that way, and actually you're just saying what looks cobblerish and what doesn't?)

Something that just occurred to me - the wolves may feel more safe defending each other/not suspecting each other than they usually would because of the presence of the BFFs.

[Rikae]

Morm, good point about Form. I'm ignoring him a bit because people I suspect seem happy to go after him, but after what you and Mac said, maybe he deserves a closer look. If he doesn't seem like a likely wolf, though, I probably won't vote for him - there are simply too many people who could be bears, trying to get the bear would seem like a shot in the dark at this point.

[Boromir88]

Mira wanted me to tell you all, she won't be very active for the rest of the day, between work and other duties. She should be back to post before the DL, but not much more.

[Rikae]

Just to clarify - there were some arguments in favor of Form being a wolf, but there are stronger links from Alona to Sally/Autume/Nienna, so I'm more likely to vote in that direction.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Morm, good point about Form. I'm ignoring him a bit because people I suspect seem happy to go after him, but after what you and Mac said, maybe he deserves a closer look. If he doesn't seem like a likely wolf, though, I probably won't vote for him - there are simply too many people who could be bears, trying to get the bear would seem like a shot in the dark at this point.

Agreed that it is a shot in the dark but if we were to bagged a bear it would eliminate one kill a night and make it a lot easier to last, plus their skin can make a nice rug for my floor. However, it is a risk reward scenario. There is a lot of risk and the reward is high, but with that said we do need a fair amount of certainty as to who the bear is, I am leaning Form right now with Lommy behind.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just to clarify - there were some arguments in favor of Form being a wolf, but there are stronger links from Alona to Sally/Autume/Nienna, so I'm more likely to vote in that direction.

No I don't think Form is a wolf. I think those three you point out are the most likely as well.

I am glad to see Mac, Rikae and Durelin posting a lot as I trust them currently. Everybody else has gone MIA.

[satansaloser2005]

Blah. I was working on my Nessa *checks to make sure she's got the right N girl* analysis and I completely lost my train of thought. Then I forgot about it. *headdesks* Think I need a bit of a nap then I'll catch up and tell you what I think. Sound shiny?

Oh, and so you've got something for now.

Suspicious
Morm
Nessa/Nienna
Formie (?)


Meh (aka no read or confusing read)
Mira
Durie
Tum
Lommie
Mac


Innocent
Nerwen
Rikae
Sally

[Thinlómien]

Alona about others

Nerwen - Day1: complains about her sdrawkcab gnitirw twice, Day2: greets Nerwen with annoyance (because of sdrawkcab gnitirw), replies to her speculation about Hakon the Bearkill, clarifies a question she didn't understand, Day3: says she's under her radar, says she reminds her of an innocent Nerwen from the previous game, is unsure about her and keeping an eye on her

morm - Day1: relies on his reasoning when voting Hakon, Day2: votes him for hiding behind a vote, is wondering whether to switch the vote or not and decides not to until he returns, Day3: has a wolf-hunch that is fading after rereading

Mac - Day1: jokingly replies to his suspicion, asks if his vote for her is payback from the previous game, Day2: seeks to allay his fears by telling she's been considering retracting, Day3: replies to his points (a few times)

Rikae - Day1: thanks her for defending her, Day2: say she might be framed by the bear and wonder which players would profit from getting rid of her, says she's not ready to vote her just yet, replies to her suspicions, keeps back and forthing with her about stuff (a lot), says Rikae's right when pointing out her weird willigness to retract, questions the joke part of her vote for her, says her vote makes her unhappy, Day3: replies to her teachings and later to her questioning her defense of Sally and Lommy

Nienna - Day1: ♥s her for making a vote tally

Mira - Day2: defends her sense of humour to Form, replies to her bear-speculation about Rikae, praises her contributions, again replies to bear speculation by saying the bear is probably a newbie, says her Rikae-bear speculation was a bit tongue-in-cheek

Autume - Day2: replies to a comment of hers, speculates with her about morm, Day3: wary of her 'cos she agrees with people so much, suspects her "less than a hunch"

Sally - Day2: replies to her queries about Hakon's death, questions her voting similarily to her, talks about Lari's schedules and Serenity with her, Day3: praises Sally's songs, defends her to Rikae by saying they cross-posted, does not suspect her, says baddie Sally is different from this Sally, thinks her long explanations confusing and slightly suspicious, jokes with her about tp

Lommy - Day2: admires her willingness to stay awake late and her sig, Day3: defends her to Rikae by saying they cross-posted but echoes Rikae's suspicion over the grateful-remark, does not suspect her, talks with her about smileys and says she can stop using them if they're annoying, suspects for grateful-comment but nothing else

Form - Day3: can't get a read on him

Durelin - Day3: suspects her for only voting based on the tie, replies to her comments

Nessa - nothing


Others about Alona

Nerwen - Day1: promises her not to sdrawkcab etirw (I just discovered how it's easy to do that and now I know why Nerwen got so hooked, btw ), Day2: doesn't understand Alona's question about arranging deaths, disagrees with her newbie-bear speculation, Day3: suggests making her happy by lynching her and Sally, says morm is more suspicious than her and votes him

Rikae - Day1: asks if anyone has opinions on the newer players including Alona, doesn't suspect her and doesn't want to vote her because she won't be around, Day2: says she hasn't left an impression, summarises her actions and concludes she's a bit suspicious (could be a cobbler or a poor newbie, though), says her vote explanation was weird, replies to her defenses, says she and autume are oddly buddy-buddy and says Alona's constant bringing up angry-bear theory looks schemed, doesn't think she and Autume are BBF's, wonders why she and Sally are both suddenly thinking of switching votes once tp questions it, votes her and clarifies it's not a joke vote, apologises for making her unhappy by voting her, Day3: suspects those who voted to save her, lectures to her about life and werewolf (sorry couldn't resist that phrasing ), says her defense of Sally and Lommy doesn't make sense, suspects her and says she's using newness as a shield, thinsk there's a wolf among Sally/autume/Alona and it's be useful to know which one, replies to Lommy's suspicions by saying that if the above trio is innocent Lommy should be looked at, considers to switch her vote to her, speculates about the light her death would shed, reatracts her vote from Sally to Alona

Mac - Day1: doesn't like her vote, votes her based on the vote and being vague and fueling the Hakon-wagon, explains her the vote for her and is troubled by her reaction to it, retracts from Alona to Zil because the vote has no support, Day2: is doubtful about her, wonders about bandwagons (including Alonawagon), Day3: wonders about people wanting to save her and why she took so long to save herself, is not convinced by her defense, she's his best suspect, votes her because prefers her to the -orms and says he may switch

Nienna - Day1: says Mac vote for her makes sense but Pitch's doesn't, thanks her for ♥ing her, Day2: analyses her vote

Sally - Day1: talks with her about Pitch's retraction, Day2: replies to her question about voting similarily to her by saying it's coincidence, talks about Lari's schedules and Serenity with her, retracts to save her because doesn't find her too suspicious, Day3: highlights xing with her vote and says she felt dumb because of that and that she was just planning to break the tie, Day3: wants to analyse her cos she looks suspicious, explains saving her at length while interrogated by Rikae, explains her last game's behaviour to her, jokes with her about tp and sorta disapproves of her no vote, suspects her and wants to take another look at her, says she's ready to switch her vote to her, retracts from morm to morm and ties morm and Alona

Form - Day1: says he confuses Nessa and Alona and decides to vote the first rather than the latter, Day2: says she has produced little substance and classifies her under "Hasn't Said Enough to Have a Trustworthy Feeling", speculates about he and autume being wolves together without reaching a conclusion, Day3: says her late Day2 behaviour is jumpy and suspicious, wonders if her new calmness is due to packmate-coaching, says she looks like a jumpy newbiewolf who's more interested about saving herself than catching wolves, speculates about the light her death would shed, says he'll probably vote her, votes her

Mira - Day2: thanks for her praising her sense of humour and talks with her about Rikae, replies Alona's "ununderstandable" question and thanks her for praising her, follows Nerwen's example of voting morm instead of Alona because of suspecting him more

Autume - Day2: agrees with her that it's difficult to guess people's roles, doesn't suspect her, questions morm based on her reasoning, says she's buddy-buddy with her because they're both new, says she understands her (possibly because they're both new), Day3: speculates about her and Sally being in cahoots in a confused manner, says it made sense that she saved herself, feels she's innocent

Lommy - Day2: says she has a cute avvie and keeps mixing her up with others, agrees with her about the village being in a tight spot, says Alona is completely under her radar, says she'd vote Inzil to save morm or Alona, retracts to save her and says she should be grateful, Day3: says saved her because she was neutral while Inzil was slightly suspicious and grateful-remark was there because it was about morm earlier, is disturbed by her use of smileys and says it's suspicious, says "the a-ladies" are rather jumpy and that if all of alona/autume/Sally are innocent Rikae should be lynched, lists her under "slightly suspicious" for being jumpy and eager to please

Nessa - Day2: votes her for being double-sided, Day3: gets a wolvish feel from her, would like to vote her but won't 'cos she can't be around to defend herself

Durelin - Day2: notes Alona's placeholder vote, votes her because she's more suspicious than morm or Inzil, Day3: would like to lynch her (alongside with half of the village), says she and autume are "jumpy, defensive, while agreeable, and highlighting new-ness", says attention away from her and Sally is not necessarily bad, explains her vote to her, disapproves of her vote for Norm, names her as a part of the ball of wolvishness, hopes she and Nessa are wolves, wonders if she's innocent because a wolf wouldn't waste vote power, votes her

morm - Day3: says she looks mighty suspicious based on her Day2 voting, doesn't trust her based on the no-vote, says he'll vote her or Sally, votes her, says that if he dies she (and some others) should be looked at


Next up: conclusions
then: reading and commenting all the posts I probably xed with

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Durelin - What I don't understand is why you're giving the cobbler advice (or does it just look that way, and actually you're just saying what looks cobblerish and what doesn't?)

I guess I was giving 'advice'. But with sarcasm. Kinda like...if you're the cobbler, be more interesting! I dunno. Truthfully, I like the cobbler role and like seeing it utilized, in-game allegiance aside.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Something that just occurred to me - the wolves may feel more safe defending each other/not suspecting each other than they usually would because of the presence of the BFFs.

I've been thinking from the beginning that I don't really like the BFF role. I can't remember the last game I played with shirrifs in it...

[Thinlómien]

probable-ish mates
Nerwen - there seems to be some sort of friendliness between the two (arguing about backwards-stuff), Alona keeps flip-flopping about Nerwen, Nerwen votes morm when he and Alona are running for the execution block (although, I'm not sure she'd do that if she was a fellow wolf - I can also see the possibility that Nerwen is a cobbler and that was suggested in the wolves' Nightly chats, or then Nerwen's just innocent)
morm - Alona might have been looking for cover by her fellow on Day1 and then when accused of it starts accusing morm of similar behaviour, morm ignores Alona until she's widely suspected and then he too suspects her
Mira - the two ignore each other quite nicely but Mira votes to tie morm with Alona (again the question of obviousity vs cobblerism vs innocence arises, though)

possible mates
Nienna - hardly any interaction
Sally - Alona flip-flops about Sally a lot, Sally attempts to save Alona twice and they seem very friendly with each other - the problem is that they look even too friendly to be fellow wolves (is Sally a cobbler, was Alona just buddying her up?)
Autume - they're quite nice to each other even though Alona suspects Autume a bit, but they seem somehow too obvious a pair to be fellows
Form - she avoids mentioning him but he suspects her... hmm
Nessa - I don't like Nessa not voting Alona because she can't be around and thus no-voting, but if they were fellows, why not give the vote to Form whom she also suspected?

unlikely mates
Mac - I don't think Mac would be as nasty as to accuse and vote a newbie fellow on Day1
Rikae - too much interaction and too much constant suspicion from Rikae's part
Durelin - picked Alona for lynching even though had two other (and several more others) options


edit: xed with Dureley

[Boromir88]

Reading all this analysis makes my brain hurt...how do you all do it?

[Thinlómien]

It is very enlightening to read Mac's analysis because he seems to have spotted stuff I totally missed and also missed some stuff I noticed and our conclusions were partly the same, partly different.

Off to make a list of sorts...

[Formendacil]

I'm going to assume it's not the deaths of Alona and Shasta that have provoked this strangely quieter day--I had under two pages to catch up on since last night!

My immediate first impressions have to do with Morm, who has set himself up rather nicely as a presumed Known Innocent--which is fair enough on his end, since we all do it, but it's rather disconcerting how everyone else has jumped on it. He hasn't, in any case, been subjected to much heavy scrutiny today.

Perhaps this bugs me because he's so certain I'm the Bear, and I know I'm not.

Relatedly, I'm really bothered by Morm's certainty that he was the probable Wolf-kill last night. While the argument is possible that he was on the Wolves' menu, how he comes to this conclusively I've no idea--unless people are talking out of turn on MSN or something, but as I assume that's not the case, I'm more inclined to read an over-bold assumption on the part of Morm here--a capitalisation, perhaps, on the fact that the Ranger is dead and the Wolves obviously aren't telling.

Which is not the say that Morm couldn't have been the Wolves' attempted Kill last night, but given his abysmal lack of accuracy where my alleged ursinity is concerned, I'm definitely not going to take his logic on faith.

Let's try and reason it out then ourselves...

Regarding the case that Morm was the Wolf-kill, I think the following two points need to be considered:

1) Why would the wolves have gone after someone attracting so much suspicion? If he's not one of their own number, they would surely be glad to have him around today, to keep the focus off themselves.

2.) The Wolves want the Bear dead too. They can't win if s/he's still alive. Unless they think Morm is the bear or a Gifted, it doesn't stand to reason that they would kill him off when he might have the potential to lead the village to finding and killing the Bear for them.

Morm has not adequately addressed these questions, in my opinions, and they are grounds enough alone for not assuming he was the Night's pick.

[Thinlómien]

(in no particular order)

Bears
Form
morm
Durelin
... Mac or Rikae...?

Wolves
Form
morm
Nerwen
Mira
Sally

Cobblers
Nerwen
Mira
Sally

(Currently not under suspicion: Nessa, Autume, Nienna. Fair enough - they're under the radar. I don't get the current trend of suspecting Nienna, though, because if I had to bet I'd say she's innocent. And also - currently only under passive speculative suspicion: Mac, Rikae and Durelin.)

Means I'm going to vote Form, morm, Nerwen, Sally or Mira. Probably either Form or morm because a) they both could be either wolves or bears aka killing machines and b) I feel their deaths would reveal more than Nerwen's or Mira's or probably even Sally's. (Or then I'm a sexist like Durelin. )


edit: xed and added a )