Return of the King Oscar Predictions (and post-Oscar Comments)

[HCIsland]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>I have heard from those of high repute that whichever film won Best Pic at the Globes will *most likely* get Best Pic at the Oscars. So there is that to think on...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Last 20 Golden Globe and Oscar winners. Keep in mind that the Golden Globes don't have one "best picture". These are best drama except where otherwise noted.<P>1984 Amadeus --> Amadeus<BR>1985 Out Of Africa --> Out of Africa<BR>1986 Platoon --> Platoon<BR>1987 The Last Emperor --> The Last Emperor<BR>1988 Rain Man --> Rain Man<BR>1989 Driving Miss Daisy (comedy or musical) --> Driving Miss Daisy<BR>1990 Dances With Wolves --> Dances With Wolves<BR>1991 Bugsy --> The Silence of the Lambs<BR>1992 Scent Of A Woman --> Unforgiven<BR>1993 Schindler's List --> Schindler's List<BR>1994 Forrest Gump --> Forrest Gump<BR>1995 Sense And Sensibility --> Braveheart<BR>1996 The English Patient --> The English Patient<BR>1997 Titanic --> Titanic<BR>1998 Shakespeare in Love (comedy or musical) --> Shakespeare in Love<BR>1999 American Beauty --> American Beauty<BR>2000 Gladiator --> Gladiator<BR>2001 A Beautiful Mind --> A Beautiful Mind<BR>2002 Chicago (comedy or musical) --> Chicago<BR>2003 Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King/Lost In Translation --> ????<P>16 for 19. Not bad odds, though it should be mentioned that Lost In Translation could win and still keep this pattern going.<P>13 out of 19 best drama winners go on to win the best picture oscar, though.<P>H.C.<P>[ 9:22 PM January 29, 2004: Message edited by: HCIsland ]<p>[ 10:04 PM January 29, 2004: Message edited by: HCIsland ]

[Gorwingel]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>16 for 19. Not bad odds, though it should be mentioned that Lost In Translation could win and still keep this pattern going.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>But I highly doubt Lost in Translation would end up winning. It only received 4 Oscar nominations, meaning that it most likely had little support in the Academy. And additionally the main actress in the film (Scarlett Johanssen) ended up not getting any nods, after receiving two (for it and another film) at the Golden Globes.<P>For me the Golden Globes were really the greatest challenge (award-wise) that ROTK faced. FOTR and TTT had all recieved nods, but had not won a thing. A lot of the pundents were predicting that the Golden Globe would most likely go to another film, and that the Oscar would most definitely go to ROTK. Just because ROTK is much more of an Oscar type film (even though it is fantasy).<P>The best picture nods did surprise me though because they (except for ROTK) all seemed rather weak. I cannot see the other films winning, they are just not going to go down in history like ROTK.

[HCIsland]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR> I cannot see the other films winning, they are just not going to go down in history like ROTK.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>I don't think Oscar was ever very good a predicting films that will go down in history. Personally, I think it's a pretty strong field this year, especially from Mystic River.<P>H.C.

[Gorwingel]

Well, Peter Jackson just won the Director's Guild of America's annual prize...<BR><A HREF="http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=493&ncid=762&e=1&u=/ap/20040208/ap_en_mo/director_awards" TARGET=_blank>Yahoo! News</A><BR>This is of course usually a very good indicator of who the Oscar is going to go to.<BR>Congradulations to PJ! He has waited a long while for this

[Neferchoirwen]

I'm not really keeping my hopes up, and I'd rather keep the little hope that I have really little.<P>But I sure do hope they win. I'm not so sure bout the Oscars anymore, the Academy often has weird choices for Best Picture (and not to mention Randy Newman's win last year: like, hello-oh!) such as last year's <I>Chicago</I>, which I found odd, save for the fact that it was indeed, entertaining. Either that, or the Oscars would want to see the cinema musical revived.<P>Oh well...

[Evisse the Blue]

Does anyone think that Peter Jackson not being an American will stand in the way of his winning Best Director, and maybe even ROTK Best Film? I know this may sound preposterous but the Academy thinks in a weird sort of way... which is why I usually don't give a floop about their general preferences. (this time, however it's special: it is about the recognition that a wonderful team deserves). <BR>As much as we would like these awards to reflect artistic quality, the movie industry appears to be the stage for some incredulously abject machinations *cough*Passion*cough*.

[Sleeping Beauty]

I don't think Peter Jackson not being an American is not going to make much of a big deal. I just worry because it is a 'fantasy' and a popular movie that the voters are going to frown on that. <P>But if it were a people's vote, just like the one on CNN.com I just saw, it would go like this:<P>Which film would get your Oscar vote? <BR> <BR>Return of the King 80% 49444 votes <BR> <BR>Lost in Translation 6% 3393 votes <BR> <BR>Master/Commander 3% 1650 votes <BR> <BR>Mystic River 6% 3949 votes <BR> <BR>Seabiscuit 5% 3198 votes <P>Total: 61634 votes<P>Maybe that should tell them something? <P>Congrats to PJ on the award. Nice gold plaque. <P>By the way, O'Great Mister Underhill sir, didn't I read something a few posts back about having to recant if PJ did win the DGA?<p>[ 5:30 PM February 08, 2004: Message edited by: Sleeping Beauty ]

[Child of the 7th Age]

The BAFTAs have now come in.....

LotR was nominated for twelve awards which I've listed below, along with the actual winner.....

Picture - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Director - Peter Weir, Master and Commander
Supporting Actor - Bill Nighy, Love Actually (Ian McKellan had been nominated for this)
Adapted Screenplay - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Music - Cold Mountain
Cinematography - ROTK
Editing - Lost in Translation
Production Design - Master and Commander
Costume - Master and Commander
Sound - Master and Commander
Visual Effects - ROTK
Makeup - Pirates of the Carribean

Four out of twelve for RotK -- not a runaway by any means. They did snag best picture, adapted screenplay, cinematography, and visual.

A lot of the kudos went to Master and Commander. PJ lost out to Peter Weir as director in Master and Commander, a movie that also snagged four awards. I believe Master and Commmander was a British Film? Is that correct? In any case, it was a fine movie so I do not feel too badly with the results, especially since PJ had already won the Director's Guild award. And I honestly can't see Master and Commander as the spoiler on Oscar night. I think there's a greater 'threat' from Lost in Translation.


Roger Ebert has come out with his predictions. Although he personally prefers other movies, he says the best picture award is a lock-in for RotK:

The best picture victory is a gimme, I think. There are some better pictures in the running ("Lost in Translation," "Mystic River" and "Master and Commander" for example), but I sense an air of inevitability about "LOTR: ROTK." It's the kind of bold enterprise that Hollywood envies, because it so rarely undertakes it. The trilogy has grossed, what? A billion dollars, with the DVD cash registers still ringing? It's exciting moviemaking, even if this year's film seemed to end, and end, and end. And Jackson has pulled it off: His trilogy delivered all the way through, and looks better as a whole than as the sum of its parts.

For the full article, click here.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, I think that RotK did very well at the Baftas, all things considered. It also won the viewers award, voted on by those that actually go to see the films (and, apart from Pirates of the Caribbean, was the only winner of other awards that was nominated in this category). That, I think, is interesting, since it is really the only one which appealed both too the Academy and the mass film-going public.

It is a shame that Jackson missed out on the director's award, but I think he still has a good shot at the Oscar. And I really think that Howard Shore should have won the soundtrack award. The music to Cold Mountain sounded nothing special to me. I thought that the soundtrack to Lost in Translation was far better, but then I'm a sucker for 80s music.

All in all, though, RotK looks almost a dead cert for the best film Oscar now.

Interesting to see Jackson pay tribute to Tolkien yet again at the BAFTAs (on accepting both the best adapted screenplay award and the best film award). He has made a point of doing this at every awards ceremony that RotK has taken prizes at, which I think speaks well of him. Or maybe he is just trying to appease the Tolkienista.

[Mister Underhill]

Hmm... yes, well, it looks like I may be obliged to eat a big slice of humble pie come Oscar night. We'll see in a couple of weeks here.

Having just come from seeing Master and Commander, I have to say that the sound design of that film is fantastic. It's a cinch for Sound Editing and Mixing awards. Great VFX, too. The level of craftsmanship in movies these days (that we mostly take for granted) is incredible. I'm not surprised Weir ran off with the BAFTA. He has the sort of subtle, deft touch with character and story that Jackson lacks.

BTW, it's an American film, and Weir is an Aussie, but I'm sure the story about heroic English sailors struck a chord with the British Academy.

Good on PJ for giving Tolkien his due. Frankly, it's the least he could do.

[Gorwingel]

It is a shame that Jackson missed out on the director's award, but I think he still has a good shot at the Oscar

It actually is not that terrible that he missed out on the directing BAFTA. He received that award in 2002 for FOTR. The British academy has actually been much more congratulatory to LOTR than the Oscars have been in the past.

We really have only one more major test left, and that is the Screen Actors Guild this Sunday. ROTK is nominated for just one award, but it is a biggie, and that is Best Ensemble. If they win this, every person who was on the main credits (Elijah through Sean Bean, actors only) gets an award. Even though some of them only appeared in the film for about 5 minutes.

[Child of the 7th Age]

I also have my fingers crossed for that "best ensemble" award. They already won one such award from the National Board of Review, I think. And I do think this is a film where the sum of the total is greater than the parts, at least in terms of the acting.

Hmm... yes, well, it looks like I may be obliged to eat a big slice of humble pie come Oscar night.

Mr. Underhill - I can whip up a tasty humble pie in my kitchen. Do you prefer yours with or without ketchup? (Seeing as I am a "Yank", I will probably include the ketchup!)

[Arwen Imladris]

I think that ROTK has a good chance at everything, except Adapted Screenplay. There were a lot of corny or silly lines (A diversion! for example) that really did not add anything.

PJ will get Best director because he one at the Golden Globes and the directers guild.

[Lathriel]

I am really getting curious because the Oscars are next week!
I was surprised Howard Shore didn't win the BAFTA for his soundtrack. Those judges musn't be very avid music listeners. O well as long as he wins an Oscar.

[Essex]

So ROTK won best Ensemble at the SAGs (in other words best film)

This is good news but what was even better was Sean 'Let's be terribly important for a moment' Astin being barged aside by John Rhys Davis when he was rabbiting on and on in his acceptance speech. And then John introduced 'the worst actor in this room' Bob Shaye, who we all know is probably the 2nd most important figure in the making of these films. (ie he stumped up the money)

So all bodes well for Best Picture, but if I had to chose 1 oscar for ROTK to win I would want it to get Best Director.

Apologies, I've only just seen the SAG thread.

[Evisse the Blue]

Alright - a day to go, and it looks like ROTK is the favourite. Best movie is definitely a win, and also best director.

Does anyone know who of the cast and crew will be there? PJ will most certainly be there, most probably Fran as well, but I read on TORN that Viggo won't make an appearance. That's too bad I was really hoping all the team would be there, it's their night.

I thought I'd share this with you

[Sirithheruwen]

Ahhh...Said in the immortal words of Foxtrot!
I was just going to post that link, but you beat me to it. Just kidding!

Well, the Oscars are tonight! I'm so nervous! I have my outfit all set out though! LOTR t-shirt, hobbit ears, etc. Well, I'm ready! Bring it on!

[Essex]

rotk MUST win Best Picture, as my online bookies, Paddy Power will refund ALL losing Oscar bets if ROTK does not win Best Picture!!!!!!!!


I'm worried about jackson winning best director. I'm not sure if he will, so I've put some money on Coppola (8/1) and Eastwood (16/1) to lighten the blow is Mr Jackson does not win!

[Carlas]

Well the night is upon us, and all we can do is pray. Though I really can't see Lost in Translation winning, I really didn't think it was that good of a movie, but the Academy always seems to pick the ones that I like the least.

Does anyone know who of the cast and crew will be there?

Hopefully at least all the hobbits, though too bad Viggo won't be going.

[Gorwingel]

Ahhh, so nervous!!! Must Win! Last Chance!

Oh, I am nervous. It is just that I really want it to win! Actually I can't really see anything else winning (if something else won, it would be one of the largest shockers in Academy history), but it is just that we won't know until that little envelope is opened.

It will either be the most terrible Oscarcast that any of us have witnessed, or one of the most wonderful

Let's hope for the better

ROTR for Little Gold Naked Guy!!!

[mollecon]

Sweeped the plate so far!

[Iaurhirwen]

Oscar night is here and gone, and here are the awards:

Art Direction
Costume
Visual Effects
Makeup
Sound Mixing
Score
Film Editing
Song
Adapted Screenplay
Director
Best Motion Picture

Clean Sweep! Yes!

[BethoHOG]

I am soooo happy!! 11 out of 11!!! Amazing! *ecstatic*

never in my life have i felt so proud and patriotic such as this! im in a very heraldic mood now! *humming the bridge of khazad-dum track*

[Rose Cotton]

BEST PICTURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is this the first fantacy film that's won an Oscar???

OMG!!!

LOTR IS THE KING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

11 NOMINATIONS AND AWARDS!!!!!!!!!!!

*bursts out crying*

(sorry for the shouting)

[mollecon]

Great! If one counts the Oscars won by LotR the two previous years, how many is it in all?

[The Green Ringwraith]

*hands out cookies and noisemakers* I started running around the house screaming my head off. Coffee at midnight does wonders for ya. *joins the humming with the theme of Minas Tirith* Ah, but it was all because of the Nazgul. They drove the performance.

Nazgul acceptance speech : "I would like to thank my parents- hi mom!- and of course, the Dark Lord... Without him, I would not be in my present condition. He has brought me so far. Thankyou. Of course, I can't forget my awesome cohorts here... Without these eight guys, striking terror into the innocent hearts of hobbits would be a lost cause. They help so much, thankyou guys. Thankyou! Since everyone in New Zealand's been thanks, I just want to shout out to all you creatures back in Mordor- holla!"

I need to calm down. Whooo... must... see.... ROTK.... again.... ack.

[Mister Underhill]

Forget the slice – give me the whole pie! And I’m happy to eat it, too. I’m very happy to see the fantasy barrier that has stumped so many great movies at Oscar time finally broken. Hats off to Jackson & Co.

P.S. – “We Won” has been merged into this thread.

[Iarhen]

Just to congratulate the incredible triumph of ROTK in the Oscar night...


A well deserved triump for such a great movie and an incredible trilogy...

Post your thoughts!

[Sleeping Beauty]

Wow...this was a great night. I was so proud of PJ getting the award for best director. After that I thought I was going to settle in for the night until I heard Steven Spielberg say 'A Clean Sweep' Then I ran around the couch for about 10 minutes. Congrats to the film team and the actors. And Mister Underhill sir, need anything to go with your humble pie?

Did anybody else think Will Farrell and Jack Black's singing was the coolest thing ever?

[Evisse the Blue]

Whoa! My God! I certainly did not see this coming! I was counting the Oscars: 5, 7, 8, and the pessimistic side of me kicked in: 'These must be consolation prizes...'; but then the last bit came in: 'A clean sweep!' - folks 'll be quoting Steven Spielberg for quite a while. I had the time of my life. Excuse my incoherence, it's 8.am where I live and i've been up most of the night.

Did anybody else think Will Farrell and Jack Black's singing was the coolest thing ever?

That was the funniest bit of the night! That and the woman who won best foregin picture saying that it's a good thing ROTK wasn't nominated for that!
Oh, and did you catch the hobbit hug at the end? Awww! And those ribbons in Fran's hair were very cute. Ok - very hyper me, going into chitchat mode.

[Cibbwin]

Most Oscars ever, tied with Ben-Hur and Titanic with 11! *cheers*

[Child of the 7th Age]

Nah, let's dump the humble pie. We all deserve a victory toast! I honestly don't think too many folk -- fans or critics -- were predicting a clean sweep.

I started reading fantasy back in the dark ages when there was one shelf buried in the back of the bookstore, and people gave you sideways glances when you walked up to it. I am honestly delighted to see this kind of recognition given after so many years of waiting. If you had told me five years ago that the movies would make this impact, I simply wouldn't have believed it.

[Imladris]

I think it was worth the wait having LotR win the Oscars. I don't think it would have been so special if FotR and TTT had won just a few awards...It was just so awesome having them win eleven oscars out of eleven!

[Everdawn]

That is fantastic, just what they all rightly deserve, am I right?!

[HerenIstarion]

Could anyone be so kind to list nominations which were won? For us ppl in the Hills of Faraway who haven't watched the show live?

Thanks

[Evisse the Blue]

Gladly, H-I. From TORN:

"RETURN OF THE KING: BEST PICTURE!

Peter Jackson - Best Director

Grant Major and Dan Hennah - for Best Art Direction.

Ngila Dickson and Richard Taylor - Best Costume.

Jim Rygiel, Joe Letteri, Randall William Cook and Alex Funke - Best Visual Effects.

Richard Taylor and Peter King - Best Makeup.

Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek - Best Sound Mixing.

Howard Shore - Best Original Score.

James Selkirk - Best Film Editing.

Annie Lennox, Fran Walsh and Howard Shore - Best Music (Song).

Fran Walsh, Peter Jackson and Philippa Boyens -Best Adapted Screenplay. "

EDIT: and this, ladies, and gents, is my 1000 post. Memorable one.

[Lush]

The cast and crew deserve their accolades.

And I'm personally glad that Peter Jackson had his hair combed for the ceremony...Oh, wait...

[HerenIstarion]

Thanks a lot, m'lady

And congrats on 1000th post

[Gorwingel]

Oh my Gosh! This was so exciting! I can't believe that they got all of them! I was hoping for something in the area of 7 to 9, but all 11! Very Surprising.

Additionally I was also happy that more of the cast and crew made it this year. And Alan Lee winning! One of the greatest Tolkien illustrators winning, how cool is that!

I went to a party and we were all so excited. We clapped and hollered after every award! It was great

Congradulations to all of the LOTR cast and crew! These awards were very well deserved.

Now if only Johnny Depp had won... Oh well