Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

That leaves 10 votes possible left.

Surely you mean 7? Ooer, perhaps I should not be trusting your instincts on mathematical matters ...

[Evisse the Blue]

What you so cleverly call hedging, Saucy, I call 'defending myself with the certainty of my innocence.' I am beginning to doubt you, although at the beginning I did not, just because you appear (intentionally?) blind to what I have been saying.
In the beginning, there was a plan and that plan was good. Then the plan was bad, and suddenly everyone in favour of it was on the suspect list. Weirdly enough how this resembles a political tactic (stress on 'tactic'). Changing sides in the middle of the debate, just as you get wind of the unpopularity of an idea looks very much like wolfish sneaky behaviour to me. And this is exactly what the phantom has done, without showing up then to see where the debate would lead...perhaps being certain that he had secured a good cover for himself.
Despite the 'hedging' you guys keep accusing me of, I have been, since I saw his post, constantly suspicious of the phantom.
And now, seeing as so very little time is left for us to come to a decision, I shall cast my vote for ++the phantom

PS: Shelob, you say:

Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them.

Without getting into the theory of relativity and probabilities, which I expect everyone had enough of today , any plan is flawed, no theory to be put in practice is perfect or risk free. And a seemingly perfect utopia is the most dangerous of all theories. In any case, the fact that I was willing to test Fordim's theory should speak for my optimism and open-mindness, not for my guilt.

[The Saucepan Man]

Time moves on. I want my vote to count, and I am not so sure that I want to see the phantom hanged - not on the current state of the evidence anyway.

So I will cast my vote for:

++ EVISSE THE BLUE

I have explained my reasoning at length previously.

[Kuruharan]

Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

You misunderstand. History means nothing. Odds should be considered.

Oh well. Enough of that blather.

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.

[The Saucepan Man]

I had not seen Evisse's vote before I cast mine. But it merely reinforces me in my view. Surely a Werewolf is more likely to vote for the one innocent who is attracting as many votes (or potential votes) as she is.

Of course, there is no certainty that the phantom is innocent. But, if we lynch Evisse and she is guilty, that would now speak in his favour.

Alas, there is similarly no certainty that Evisse is guilty. But she is the person that I suspect the most on the basis of the first day's proceedings. Hence my vote.

[Evisse the Blue]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.

Too bad that it isn't. It isn't right and you are either intentionally (as is my strong doubt) or unintentionally making a big mistake.
Those who have not voted so far need to be very careful not to jump on the bandwagon started along by SPM. Most people seem to follow his course of action, pressed by the very little remaining time, which seems to cloud their judgement.

[the phantom]

Morm- you ask why I was for the plan and then against it? Isn't it obvious? The seer plan seems carefully crafted to help the wolves and if I would've done my extremely strong anit-plan post immediately I doubt a single person would've had the guts to go along with it. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I believe that my words against the plan carry an awful lot of weight- enough to discourage most people from buying into it. By defending it, I was attempting to provide the wolves with some cover- in other words, make the wolves feel as if they could support it and not look like they were alone and conspicuous. They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for.

[the guy who be short]

Four votes are left.
In the interests of balance, I ask that the remaining villagers are not swayed by numbers. Vote for who you believe to be guilty.

Edit: Ah, it appears Evisse already stated what I had said.
Three votes left. Use them wisely.

[Evisse the Blue]

*tosses a raw fish in the direction of the phantom*

How convenient of you to appear precisely now, phantom.

If I am to be lynched I shall of course meet my unfortunate demise with dignity, despite my low bearing, but the village shall be none the better for it. I can only be glad for those who did not vote for me as they will be the only ones with a clear conscience after this.

[The Saucepan Man]

They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."

The amazing thing is that it is just like the phantom to think like this ...

I would point out that there is a dreadful danger, as the votes currently stand, for any Werewolf who has not yet voted to ensure that two Villagers get lynched, one of whom is almost certain to be innocent. Please, let's try to ensure that doesn't happen ...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

The amazing thing is that it is just like the phantom to think like this ...

But I would ask isn't it also like the phantom to know that he could say that and we would believe that was his intention thus giving him cover. He plans not only the next move but the move after that.

And the phantom has also said that he may go for me next round, which is fine, but to do so because I voted for him seems paltry and unreasonable. I have said that we ought to be suspicious of all but to threaten to go after me based on no evidence given seems petty and suspicious even more.

[Firefoot]

Seven, ten, seven-tenths, same thing...

I'm not really convinced of the guilt of either phantom or Evisse, though I am suspicious.

I could vote for Evisse; Evisse would be hung almost undoubtedly since Azaelia has yet to show her face.

I could vote for phantom; either both Evisse and phantom would be hung or it could still be either/or, depending on the final vote.

I could vote for Fordim and have virtually no effect on the voting whatsoever.

Umm...

++Fordim - he is the one who I am most suspicious of, and therefore cast my vote at the risk of seeming dispassionate about the end result.

Oh, and one interesting thing I noticed: we're at 90-something posts, which is only about 20 fewer posts than were in the entire 2nd game...

[The Only Real Estel]

I am torn between a couple of different opinions at the moment. If we assume that Fordim's plan is has been to confuse us or provide the werewolves with an easier means of winning the game, then I should be following Saucey's reasoning and vote for Evisse, SoN, or Fordim. The most logical knee-jerk reaction would be for me to vote fore SoN because he voted for me. However, I do not see how this would help things because not only do I try not to hold gut feelings against people, I am not sure of his guilt. But since I am not sure of any one person's guilt it would seem that my obligation to the village is to make sure that one villager gets lynched and not two (I won't even go into what the odds would be that we could possibly score a double wolf-lynching, so I see no reason to lynch two villagers).

My vote goes to ++ Evisse.
If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

edit: I said 'my' suspicions. I hope that if I do not last the night all of your suspicions will turn toward SpM and the phantom and those two will be examined throughly. I still do not overly suspect them, but if Evisse is in fact innocent, they start to rise on my very own 'short list'.

[the guy who be short]

Game? what do you mean, lass?
Ooh, times up.

[Evisse the Blue]

Guys and gals, if you see me laughing on the way to the hanging spot, it's because I have a very weird sense of humour.
But some of you at least are sure to cry.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

And so the votes were scattered all over the place. The village was utterly bamboozled and had no clue as to what to do; they obviously never had werewolves to deal with before.

But so it was that Evisse the Blue attracted more votes than any other villagers.

"I can't believe what you're doing!" she cried, as she was led to the noose. Alternating between disbelieving laughter and anguished tears, she was a hopeless and sorry figure.

"Even if you do go ahead with this and hang me, I wish you well, and hope that you save the village. Please, go to my house." Such gracious and baffling last words, and she was met with bemusement by her fellows. They glanced nervously at each other, completely terrified by the scene unfolding in front of their eyes.

With the noose tight around the fishmonger's neck, the lever was pulled, and in the stony silence of the dusk, everyone heard the sickening crack of Evisse's neck. She hung still, and didn't move again.

The villagers wailed in realisation of their mistake, but the anguish that followed was even greater. Please, go to my house. What did that mean?

They quickly scampered to Evisse's small house, forced open the door, and after a quick search were positively shaking in fear. The books, charts and apparatus of the late Evisse the Blue told no lies: the villagers had murdered the Seer they did not know they had.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
Son of Numenor
the guy who be short
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 10

NIGHT 2 has now started. It will end in 24 hours' time at 6:30 PM GMT (that's 1:30 PM EST) and (12:30 PM Central) on Sunday, or earlier if all night-time business is received by me before then.


*Just a reminder: there's no talking during the NIGHT. The Hunter, the Guardian and the Werewolves (although amazingly not the Seer!) are the only players who have duties to perform. Thanks.*

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers woke up early. They were still distressed by the horrible sight they had seen yesterday morning, and by the awful deed they had perpetrated in the evening. There was a nervous chill in the morning air.

Still, they got dressed as usual and went to get food for their breakfast. Greeting each other as they walked along the street, they noticed something slightly unusual: the village was quiet. But why? What was missing? Ah yes, the sound of poetry. The village bard the guy who be short was always awake before anyone else and could always be found sitting in front of the town hall reciting some of his beautiful poetry.........

So why the silence? The nervous chill suddenly became more apparent.

The villagers rushed to the bard's house and were relieved to catch sight of their friend's normally good-natured face. He was by the window, admittedly looking rather glum. What's the matter? shouted the villagers. As far as they could see, there was no new sign of werewolf activity, and their hopes were raised. Come on, friend they said, and told him of their thoughts. But there was no answer.

Confused, the villagers decided to go and comfort him. Perhaps he had just finished a particularly sad poem. the guy who be short was very talented, after all.

They found the front door open, so they walked in. Though they soon regretted it: inside the house, they found suspended from the ceiling, the decapitated body of the guy who be short.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
Son of Numenor
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 9


DAY 2 has begun now it is 3PM GMT (that's 10AM EST) and (9AM Central). It will end in 24 hours' time, or earlier if a majority vote is reached before then.


*Reminder: I should be able to post every result on time but I may sometimes be out by a few hours. This may look strange to some players, particularly the Americans. Still, votes should be cast within 24 hours and not after.*

[mormegil]

Well Fordim must be a wolf right? I mean TGWBS (may his soul rest in peace) was against him and his ideas and so voted against him. Would it not therefore be logical to assume that Fordim wanted him out of the picture.

Please, this seems like too obvious of a set up. Now I realize that it is risky in defending somebody so I will not go that far as to say I think Fordim is innocent, however I hope we all see past what appears to me to be a sloppy set up. I think the wolves know that Fordim is on many people's suspicion list, heck he's on mine, so if they could do anything to cast more suspicion on him all the better.

I have my suspcions that I will expound on later today but right now I simply don't have enough time. I implore you to all look carefully at this set up and judge correctly.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Please, this seems like to obvious a set up. Now I realize that it is risky in defending somebody so I will not go that far as to say I think Fordim is innocent, however I hope we all see past what appears to me to be a sloppy set up. I think the wolves know that Fordim is on many people's suspicion list, heck he's on mine, so if they could do anything to cast more suspicion on him all the better.

Thanks for noting that mormegil. I realise that this is not a vote of confidence in me (wise on your part) but I think it’s a pretty obvious bit of slandering too!

First, some old business to clean up, then on to the new:

I stand by my strategies even though it is clear that they have not garnered any support. They were not put forth despite their “flaws” simply to garner responses, although getting useful responses was a big part of their purpose. I was asked several times yesterday to discuss this but I really couldn’t – what use is there in giving away all of my strategy to wolves and innocents alike? But as they did not get support, and as the seer is now dead (*glares at those responsible*) the point is moot.

The reason I say that the strategies were not flawed is that the logic behind them is sound, if not what people want to pursue here. Both strategies did in fact increase the risk to each player individually but this meant that they also increased the potential reward to the innocents as a group. Yes, the seer would become more visible, but we would have received the benefit of a lot of solid information; yes the short-list makes voting a danger to the one casting the vote, but that danger adheres to Wolves and Villagers alike. Like I said yesterday, the strategy does nothing to make the odds of catching a wolf better, it only makes the results of voting more useful and thus allows us to catch a wolf more quickly, using precisely the methods of deduction and analysis that we are already pursuing.

But that is all blood under the bridge: I happily put aside my strategies as insufficient to the task before us, if only because they have not garnered wide support. I will not reverse my opinion however, like some, (*eyes The Phantom*) and claim that they are “flawed” simply to make myself appear innocent to those who, strangely, equate that stance with a sign of innocence. I still maintain that those who seek a strategy, any strategy, are more likely to be innocent than those who do not – or those who work against common strategy…

And at the moment, I await other people’s ideas about how we can co-ordinate our votes in a way beneficial to the innocents.

But on to new matters: the lamentable death of the guy who be short and the search for the perpetrators…

As I said yesterday, I would be looking today at those who voted to lynch innocents, and those who appear to me to be working against a common front for the villagers. So here’s two lists –

Those who worked against developing a strategy (in order of vehemence, with the most opposed at the top):

SaucepanMan
the guy who be short
The Phantom (flip-flop)
Kuruharan
Firefoot
Mormegil

Those who voted for a known innocent:

Voted for Evisse (the Seer)

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
Kuruharan
SaucepanMan
Shelob

Voted for me

the guy who be short
Firefoot

No vote:

Azaeilia

The only people who appear on both lists are: SaucepanMan, Kuruharan, Firefoot, The Phantom, the guy who be short.

Now that tgwbs has been slaughtered in that clumsy frame-up I can remove him from the list: I’m almost tempted to thank the wolves, were it not for the loss of an innocent villager!

Of the remaining four I am most suspicious of SaucepanMan and Kuruharan for being consistently against my attempts to unify the village; I am less suspicious of The Phantom insofar as he at first supported my suggestions, but then turned on them (his claims at the time that this was strategic are highly suspect…I sense a bit of flip-flopping when he saw the way the wind was blowing). I’m not terribly suspicious of Firefoot insofar as her arguments against my strategies were aimed at my specific strategies and not so much against the idea of voting according to a communal strategy: that is, she seemed OK with the concept, just not my specific ideas. Also, she voted against me with tgwbs and not as a part of that suspicious block of votes that did in our Seer (who I think was perhaps a little too heavy handed with her hints yesterday).

So that’s where I am at the moment.

[mormegil]

Just thought I would add this list to show who voted for whom. Maybe it will help to shed some true light on our councils and we can rid ourselves of the shadow the werewolves have cast over us and cost us our seer.


Fordim voted for Saucepan Man
TGWBS voted for Fordim
Mormegil voted for the phantom
Holbytlass voted for Azaleia
Oddwen voted for the phantom
Son of Numenor voted for The Only Real Estel
Shelob voted for Evisse
Evisse voted for the phantom
Saucepan Man voted for Evisse
Kuruharan voted for Evisse
The phantom voted for Evisse
Firefoot voted for Fordim
The Only Real Estel voted for Evisse
Azaleia didn’t vote at all.


It's always interesting to look at who bandwagons on votes i.e. who voted for Evisse and how quickly one after another. Obviously not all who voted for Evisse are guilty but it's worth a look. Then again perhaps no wolves voted for Evisse although this is unlikely and I believe we have at least one or two in that mix.

Edit: Cross post with Fordim.

[Kuruharan]

Surprisingly enough, up until Fordim's post I was inclined to agree with mormegil and say that killing TGWBS was a ploy to get us to lynch Fordim by mistake.

Then from Fordim's own mouth we have this line...

I’m almost tempted to thank the wolves

This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

[Shelob]

"We, with our quick dividing eyes
Measure, distinguish and are gone
The forest burns, the tree-frog dies,
Yet one is all and all are one."
(Judith Wright, Rainforest)


This was, I believe, us yesterday. Myself at least as I was rushed between testing and other irksome plans....


"this seems like to obvious a set up" ~mormegil

It is suprisingly obvious...the only thing I can think is that we should be looking at people who would want suspicion cast on Fordim...or, were there any, the other people upon whom TGWBS cast suspicion (though I can't find any...) since if he had cast suspicion on someone else but still voted for Fordim this set up would make Fordim look suspicious while almost hiding the other player...does that make sense?

Well,actually, no...I can think of one other possibility...assume Fordim is a werewolf, then by killing someone so clearly opposed to Fordim the werewolves would all but guarantee that everyone looks at the kill and thinks "It can't be Fordim, this is too obvious."...I'm not saying I believe Fordim to be a werewolf right now (I still hold the confusion he caused yesterday as a point against him, but from that we've all got a point against us so it doesn't really count) I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely...


I don't have a lot to add right now (as I have yet another busy day...) but I promise that I won't repeat my mistake of yesterday and try to rush in a vote...I'm busy all afternoon but I'll take the evening to read what I've missed carefully and give it thought...so long, of course, you don't all decide while I'm gone...

[Shelob]

I started typing that up, got called away, came back and posted it...then read Kuruharan's post...

"It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment." ~Kuruharan



That's what I was thinking...I wish my post was that concise though...

[mormegil]

I thought of that tatic as well Shelob however it is a very risky tactic. However if great risk pays off the rewards are great. So I don't suggest we just assume it to be a set up but we need to make sure we instantly don't accuse Fordim.

I think it's more likely that the wolves would kill TGWBS because he only cast suspicion on Fordim and if Fordim is not a werewolf it would implicate nobody else.

[Firefoot]

I'm going to put up a tentative speculation that no werewolf voted for another werewolf on Day 1. There were enough different choices for votes that it would be easy to not have to vote for a werewolf and not look suspicious.

This would mean that of any two people who voted for each other, only one of them could be a werewolf. The only case of this is Evisse and phantom. I'm not sure that this is conclusive since these two were where most of the votes were distributed so it would make sense that they would vote for each other in order not to get lynched...

So until we know who a wolf is, this does not help a whole lot, but I thought I'd put it out there for consideration.

At the moment, my primary suspicions lie on SoN. His replies tended to be short and lacking strong back up for his opinions, and he was also in agreement of Fordim's plan (obviously this reasoning didn't work with Evisse, but I think phantom's reasoning that: "If I was a wolf I'd love this plan" still stands). His vote was also the only vote towards Only Real Estel, for this reasoning: "I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right." We at least had enough to work with that "just a feeling" is not a very sufficient reason for voting to lynch someone. (Note: I am not saying that I necessarily think Estel is innocent. I'm just saying I didn't see a lot of evidence of guilt.)

Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

And I'm still unsure of the phantom. He's just not been consistent enough.

And Kuruharan (though not nearly so high on my list), who has been extremely slippery in his opinions, and also would seem to have defended the odds of his being a werewolf a little bit too much.

[The Saucepan Man]

Fordim, you are right to place me at the top of your suspicion list. Given that she was innocent, anyone who voted for Evisse is bound to attract suspicion, and rightfully so. And I was one of the most vocal in calling for her to be lynched. The Werewolves would have known that she was innocent (although not that she was the Seer), and I believe that at least one would have voted for her. I fully accept, therefore, that I am a target for lynching today (heck, it may have saved me from being killed last night). All I can say is that I am innocent, and simply (one might say foolishly) misread the signs. To Evisse, wherever she may now be, I offer my wholehearted apologies.

I certainly did detect in her contributions a certain amount of hedging. That was what convinced me to vote for her (prompted, as I note below, by Kuruharan). Now, with the benefit of hindsight, the reason for her hedging is clear. As I said, I misread the signs.

First off, I stand by what I said yesterday. I still consider Fordim's proposals to have been a perfect device for quickly identifying the Seer and reducing the number of Villagers early on. Obviously, I misapplied that belief badly, but I stand by the basic premise. (I would add that I am not against an organised strategy per se, but I see it as difficult to devise one which will not favour the Werewoves more, given their greater pre-existing knowledge.) I therefore remain suspicious of Fordim and agree with others that the gruesome murder of our poor Bard, one who voted for him yesterday, seems a little too convenient in seemingly placing him in the clear. I would also reiterate that, in making his proposals, he caused us to spend a lot of time yesterday discussing them rather than trying to find the Werewolves. If it was a tactic to create confusion, it clearly worked. I also remain suspicious of SoN, who accepted Fordim's proposals with little explanation.

But let's look at those who voted for Evisse, and when they voted. They were as follows (in order):

Shelob
The Saucepan Man
Kuruharan
The Phantom
The Only Real Estel

(Interestingly, Fordim listed them the other way round ...)

Now, with just over two hours to go, I was still undecided between Fordim, Evisse and SoN. I dismissed voting for Fordim because it would look like a knee-jerk reaction to his vote for me and also because, if he is a Werewolf, he was unlikely to have instigated my death during the night having voted for me. But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

Shelob voted first for Evisse, claiming not to have had time to have read the full discussion. Perhaps she rather than (or even in addition to) Kuru was trying to lead the vote away from SoN and towards Evisse.

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

So, my suspicions are currently directed towards Fordim, Kuruharan, Shelob and SoN. And I am now particularly suspicious of Kuru, given his approach of saying nothing controversial, but building subtly on what others have said to direct the thoughts of the Villagers in a certain direction.

But these are mere suspicions at this stage. I do not wish to say more nor put it any higher for the time being since, given the outcome of yesterday’s voting, I am sorely afraid now of being too decisive in my opinions …

[Kuruharan]

I do not wish to say more nor put it any higher for the time being since, given the outcome of yesterday’s voting, I am sorely afraid now of being too decisive in my opinions

And you people are accusing me of being slippery.

Look, I'm innocent. I know I'm innocent and the werewolves know I'm innocent. However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

If I get lynched some of you are going to have very red faces and I'd urge you to look closely at those who were most vocal against me. But even more than them, look at the people who were secondary in it not necessarily the prime movers.

[the phantom]

The phantom also voted for Evisse. But this was at a stage where it was really either him or her, so it is understandable. It does not put him in the clear, but it makes his vote for Evisse less suspicious in my eyes.

Thank you for mentioning that. When I voted, I had three votes and Evisse had three votes. What was I going to do- vote for myself? Vote for someone entirely different?

There were a couple of people I would've voted for before Evisse, but the way things stood at the time I felt it necessary to vote for her to preserve myself.

*shakes head*

Our poor seer. She should've thought of what happened to Fordim last week before voting for me. Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one.

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

But maybe not... perhaps Morm and Saucy are in it together!

In this post, Morm named both Saucy and Kuru, and in the following post, Saucy shoots back a bit. Perhaps the two wolves thought that if they pretended to suspect each other at the beginning that if one of them were caught it would make the other look more innocent. The trick would be to appear opposed but not actually try to get the other lynched. Notice in the post that while Morm is suspicious of Saucy, slightly more suspicion is put onto Kuru.

Morm continues his spat with Saucy here, Saucy answers him back here, and Morm responds here.

Also, I was on my way to being lynched (down 3 votes to 1) when Saucy stepped in and voted for Evisse. Is it possible that he knew both Evisse and I were innocent and wanted us to tie so we'd both be lynched?

Saucy and Morm are behaving much as I would behave if I were a wolf.

Now, don't snap back at me too much, you two. I would still lynch Fordim before you (and possibly one or two others), but in case I happen to get lynched today I just wanted to toss a theory out there before I die in case things get so bad around here that the villagers are willing to try a crazy theory.

And things probably will get that bad unless we get a slice of luck.

[mormegil]

Well if that's not the greatest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen. I can say that I only "suspected" SpM and Kuru at the time to get peoples reactions and to start conversation. That is not to say that my fears have not elevated or diminished, simply that we needed to start somewhere.

Let me illustrate why this is a knee-jerk reaction.

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for

Let this be a lesson to all future seers who would like to make it through the first day. DON'T vote for the phantom on day one

It is very clear that the phantom doesn't like people voting for him, though I can't blame him for who would like it? However my policy is and always has been to be suspicious of everyone and invite people to investigate me also. Now to vow to come after me if he is wrong seems so petty and illogical that I hope we can see past this front.

I will post later my suspicions with arguments to back it up not simply emotional reactions.

[Firefoot]

I think I'd feel more inclined to side with mormegil on that one. The posts that phantom high-lighted are so early in the game that there was absolutely nothing to go on and, in light of mormegil's and SpM's other useful contributions, I am extremely inclined to just dismiss those posts as early banter. All save the last post were before Fordim's "plan post," when everyone was just figuring that there would have to be some luck involved in selecting someone to be lynched, so may as well pick someone, and Kuru and SpM would have been reasonable choices: both logical thinkers and, should they be wolves, no small threat.

And it does seem like a rather knee-jerk action on the part of the phantom...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Kuruharan says in post 107:

However, if I were a werewolf this time I'd certainly be trying to drive the herd in the direction of hanging someone who has suspicion hanging about his person for some unaccountable reason.

According to his own logic, the fact that there are people casting suspicion on him would indicate that they are Werewolves, insofar as they are trying to “drive the herd” toward hanging someone who is already under suspicion. Kuru, I would note, garnered zero votes yesterday to my two. So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

SaucepanMan made the point:

But it was Kuruharan's comments that tipped me towards Evisse rather than SoN. He drew attention to her "hedging" comments and, fortified by that, I began to concentrate on her rather than SoN. Was Kuru, knowing that Evisse was innocent, trying to lead me (and the other innocent Villagers) towards her and away from SoN? It is quite possible.

More “herding”???

Let me point out that I’m not reacting to Kuru’s suspicions with new ones of my own: away back in post 99 I put him right at the top of my list with Saucy based on yesterday’s events.

(NB to Saucy: I had the votes in reverse order because I worked backward through the posts: but you are quite right, it is useful to look at them in proper chronological order so thanks for that – I must admit, that seeing them in that order does make The Phantom look a little less suspicious.)

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

[mormegil]

As promised I would begin to explain my suspicions of who and why. My main suspicion has been and currently remains the phantom. What he has said and done just doesn’t sit right with me and I hope to be able to explain why.

He was quick to agree with Fordim’s idea and very uncharacteristically give little explanation. Now my position on Fordim’s plan is well known so I wish not to rehash that here. Suffice it to say that currently I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he meant it to stir up conversation.

In defending the plan, the phantom uses my name as an example (it could well have been anyone else though) and says this

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

Then is his notorious flip-flop post he arrogantly declares that a villager naming a wolf would be near suicide.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this? Also the phantom is claiming that he suspects Fordim

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

If he suspects Fordim how can we buy into his defense that by agreeing with Fordim’s plan he was opening a door for the wolves to agree because the illustrious phantom has agreed, therefore it must be okay. The phantom knew that this plan would benefit the wolves and quickly agreed to it hoping to get innocents to agree as well. It’s asinine to assume the phantom agreed with it just because he thought he could lure the werewolves into agreeing when he himself suspects the author of the idea.

I see a possible (mind you I still don't think Fordim is innocent) framing attempt gone awry and now he is desperately trying to redirect guilt and suspicion.

I understand why he voted for Evisse. First, because he knew her to be innocent and saw and easy target to lynch. Second to protect himself but he didn’t give any explanation as to why he voted for her. Not even I’m voting in agreement to what SpM has said. To not give some sort of backing to something he does is not like the phantom at all.

And finally I must say,

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

Well I must say that the wolves have benefited a great deal more from her death than they would yours.

I have other suspicions that are on my list though they have been discussed by others.

They are Kuruharan, Fordim, Shelob and Son of Numenor top my list though other are near such as Saucepan Man(mainly for his spearheading the “lynch Evisse” initiative). And Azaleia due to her silence.

[Kuruharan]

So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

Quote:
This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.


Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

Yeah, but the suspicion you've brought on yourself is your own fault.

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly. He accuses me, I speak my bit, and he suddenly goes suspicious quiet even though he has still been around. It is almost as if he and his cronies said, "Oh crap! When we lynch Kuruharan everyone will see that he was innocent! Those of us who pushed for his death are going to look really bad! We've got to shut up for a bit and hope somebody else takes the bait!"

At the moment I'm also inclined to think that Firefoot may be among those cronies.

I'm also still suspicious of Fordim.

[the phantom]

Since when am I a knee-jerk type of person?

No, Morm, you and Saucy's chatter at the beginning got my attention immediately, since it was slightly akin to the way I pretended to be suspicious of Nim right away in that other-town-that-I-shouldn't-be-mentioning.

And as far as threatening to go after you, I said it because-
1) I had already thought of a Morm-Saucy duo and figured I might bring it up the next day. By the way, that's why I used your name and Saucy's name in my example.
2) I'm the phantom. I'm no stranger to threatening statements. For example, remember when I threatened lmp? And in this post I said to Boromir "Do not be so eager to snipe, Boromir, especially in my direction. I don't like it."

Directing a menacing statement towards you for voting for me is entirely phantomish.

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this?

Are you wanting to know why I asked the question "Has no one else noticed this?"?

I asked the question out of shock.

Yes, there were people like yourself and Firefoot who seemed opposed to the plan, but I could not believe the lack of vehemence. The plan was a guaranteed seer-killer. Though others touched on the anti-seer implications, no one clearly screamed it as I did. No one seemed as afraid of the plan as they should've been.

That's why I asked that question.

One more thing I will say is that unless I start to see a lot more from Shelob, Oddwen, Holybtlass, Son of Numenor and in particular Azaeilia I’m going to start agitating to lynch someone more evasive and low-key than my current top suspects…

I completely agree. I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly.

It's nice to see I'm not alone.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

... even though he has still been around.

Hoe perceptive of you Kuru. Yes, I have been around without making further comment. Largely because I am reviewing the proceedings to date in an effort to draw something useful from the current chaos, rather than throwing accusations around willy-nilly as many others seem to be doing.

I have set out my intitial suspicions for today, but have very little else to go on at the moment. When I do have more, I shall share it.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

What a curious comment ...!!??

[Holbytlass]

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

[Holbytlass]

I hope to have the council's leave to get my family from the river. And I hope not to bring suspicion on me further.

[the phantom]

I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.

What a curious comment ...!!??

Maybe so- but considering that we have no seer and therefore no concrete knowledge, my suggestion does not seem too over the edge. We are in an over the edge situation, after all.

What do you think is more likely, SP- that Fordim is a wolf, that SoN is a wolf, that Morm is a wolf, or that one or two of the quiet group is a wolf? Who knows? There isn't a clear cut favorite.

And at this point I'm not terribly afraid to call attention to myself and risk getting lynched. The wolves have defeated two villages already, and those villages did not lynch their seers the first day. Based on previous experience we will likely lose, so I might as well say what I think with no fear. And if I get killed, at least I won't have to endure the rest of the slaughter.

And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.

There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch.

I hope to have the council's leave to get my family from the river. And I hope not to bring suspicion on me further.

What? Leaving in the middle of debate to go swimming? You don't seem too concerned about our fate. You must be a wolf!

[Holbytlass]

swimming-haha, we wolves like to keep our coats clean. Actually my husband and children brought back supplies for the shop.

What I find disturbing is Kuru's saying here...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

And Phantom's saying about future seers don't vote for me on the first day and other sayings of his that Mormegil pointed out (post109). They both sound very pompous, it reminds me of the theives in The Emperor's New Clothes...you know, they said if a person couldn't see the clothes, that person was stupid. It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them under threat that the voters come off looking like wolves.

[Kuruharan]

Go ahead and lynch me and find out!

I promise you I'm telling the truth. When I'm gone and you see that I'm a villager (and you will) just make sure and hang Saucepan Man.