TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[autume98]

It is a sad day for us villagers. Shasta did a great deed by saving someone in the village. I just wish that he weren't dead.

[Nienna]

Eek. * Apologizes* Sorry Mira! The end of day was a little confusing and I was trying my best to keep up... but I am no Lari. There is an earlier count that was correct but then I some how managed to mess it up and with Sally retracting and then locking in it got a bit confusing.

[Durelin]

Shasta was a popular man it seems. Nice job, mate.

[Nienna]

It is sad that Shasta, our valiant Ranger is now dead, but I'm happy we have finally nabbed a wolf and the wolves lost out on a kill. This is good news.

[satansaloser2005]

Gonna analyze Nessa because, well, I want to. Back in a sec.

[mormegil]

Well I must thank two people, the ranger, as I am almost certain I was the wolf's target last night and the head of Boro's coin.

According to Nienna's count here is the votes from yesterday

Rikae--> Sally
Morm--> Form
Lommy--> Form
Alona--> No Vote
Nessa--> No Vote
Sally--> Morm
--Morm--Form
Autume--> Morm
--Rikae--Sally
Rikae --> Alona
Form--> Alona
Mac--> Alona
Nienna--> Morm
Morm--> Alona
Dury--> Alona
Nerwen--> Morm
--Sally-- Morm
Sally--> Morm

Alona voters: Durelin, Morm, Mac, Form, Rikae
Morm voters: Sally, Nerwen, Nienna, Autume, Mira (somehow not included on this list but was on an earlier list)
No votes were Alona and Nessa

Very interesting the way it played out. I am very much inclined to believe Durelin, Mac and Rikae innocent with Form a possible bear suspect.

Somehow my suspicion of Sally was not lessened at all . Alona no voted which is odd too but would another wolf go along with that? I doubt it, too obvious for me I would think and I'm not sure Nessa is that bold. I am thinking her a bit more innocent.

Did Lommy vote?

I would be content to focus most all the attention on the Morm voters from yesterday and keep an eye on Form.

Here is somewhat of a wild plan that may work. We have 12 remaining villagers, 3 gifteds, a cobbler, bear, two wolves and 5 ordos including me. If the 3 gifted came forward, but no revealing their role, this is for two reasons. 1. With the hunter still at large the wolves and bear will have to second guess which one to kill. 2. The cobbler may decide to join the ranks of the proclaimed gifteds. However, if this were to happen we would need to decide if we want to believe the claim at all before the gifteds reveal their true role. I think the cobbler would be very obvious if she tries to reveal herself (I'm thinking Sally first then Nerwen as likely candidates). Anyway that would give 3 solid innocents of 12, if I am assumed innocent because of Shasta's protection last night, I had hoped he would have survived to verify the claim. Anyway, I think it reasonable to assume the worst case for me would be that I am the bear, with this plan in place we could fairly quickly eliminate the wolves and bear. There would be 4 to 5 known innocents, depending upon who you are. For the 4 other ordos they will know that they are innocent, ergo 5.

What say ye? Too soon for this? It would be that 1/3 of the village would be known innocents and then I think it would be fairly easy to ferret out the guilty based on voting patterns etc...

EDIT: Crossed with everybody since Boro's last post.

[mormegil]

Oh, and on my plan I am primarily interested in hearing from those whom I believe innocent.

[Durelin]

...how do you know Shasta protected you and how are we supposed to know?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by mormegil

What say ye? Too soon for this? It would be that 1/3 of the village would be known innocents and then I think it would be fairly easy to ferret out the guilty based on voting patterns etc...

I say the shirriffs can't be known innocents at the same time. *points to rules*

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Oh, and on my plan I am primarily interested in hearing from those whom I believe innocent.

That's excellent.

It means I don't have to talk right now.



Actually, I'm only posting now to let it be known that, as with yesterDay, I'll be offline from now until about 4-5 hours before the Deadline. I assume I won't get distracted and start purchasing any expensive Tolkien books, but that would also have been my assumption yesterday, so...

Anyway, yeah... online in 18-19 hours.

Meanwhile, my only comment is that, had there been more of them, the No Voters would bear more watching, but it was only Alona and Nessa. Should probably look at Nessa just in case, though...

Okay, going to bed--unless something catches my eye on the way out.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

...how do you know Shasta protected you and how are we supposed to know?

You can't be certain Durelin, but assume for a moment I am not a wolf, would I be a likely wolf target?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I say the shirriffs can't be known innocents at the same time. *points to rules*

Confounded man, you and your blasted rules, a pox on them! I failed to see that rule, it might be safe to assume I am not a BFF.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

You can't be certain Durelin, but assume for a moment I am not a wolf, would I be a likely wolf target?

Why would the wolves kill someone who's been the topic of so much conversation (and lynching interest) recently? I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying that I'm not believing you're innocent just because you say you were attacked. For all I know they tried to kill me (although it'd be the same idea, and thus unlikely).


Finding all the Nessa posts now, and hopefully I'll get it out before I head for home.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Why would the wolves kill someone who's been the topic of so much conversation (and lynching interest) recently? I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying that I'm not believing you're innocent just because you say you were attacked. For all I know they tried to kill me (although it'd be the same idea, and thus unlikely).


Finding all the Nessa posts now, and hopefully I'll get it out before I head for home.

So then, two wolves were on the chopping block last night Sally? Highly unlikely. To the wolves it would be obvious that I would be either a fairly well known innocent or the bear, either way they would want to eliminate me.

[Durelin]

I would think any of the alona voters were likely targets last night, with considerations for targeting the ranger or the shirrifs and possibly avoiding the hunter.

But maybe the wolves really are convinced you're the bear.

Sally...cobbler?

Nienna and Lommy wolves?

Nerwen and Mira also bother me a lot.

But I'm ready to vote Morm for his gifted-reveal plan.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

So then, two wolves were on the chopping block last night Sally? Highly unlikely. To the wolves it would be obvious that I would be either a fairly well known innocent or the bear, either way they would want to eliminate me.

I still fan you for the bear. I'm not saying, I'm right, I'm just saying that's what I'm still feeling.

In a way I'm glad I retracted and 'changed' the outcome of the vote, because Alona's dead and we're down a wolf. On the other hand, I really want to know what Morm is. Grrrr....going to work on something else and then keep looking at Nessa.

(By the way, not 'grrrr' I'm mad, but 'grrrr' I'm torn. I still find Morm suspicious, but if he is innocent I don't want to spend all my time on him.)



EDIT: x'd with Durie. And I agree with her, in case I didn't already say. The plan sounds like the best way to get the gifteds killed.

[mormegil]

Sally and Durelin, what purpose can the gifted serve right now, especially the remaining ones other than to be known innocents, obviously that can't happen because of Boro-jerk! (love ya Boro).

It is times like these that I miss phantom. He would understand where I am going with this and agree.

[Durelin]

Do not patronize, morm.

[Rikae]

Morm, I think we have plenty of leads toDay without the gifteds revealing.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Morm, I think we have plenty of leads toDay without the gifteds revealing.

Fair enough, when the plan came to me it was much better because I figured the ranger would be alive and the the BFF's could reveal and at the time I assumed I would be attacked and protected...

Now why would the bear go for Shasta? It seems that he stays on the fringes and I think he got lucky with the ranger kill and didn't peg Shasta as gifted.

[Rikae]

Morm, using the gifteds as known innocents would make a lot more sense if/when the village is smaller and we have no clue who the remaining baddie/s are. Having them reveal toDay would be a total waste.

EDIT: X'd with morm (and my previous post x'd with several people, too).

[satansaloser2005]

Well the hunter is still useful (unless they're revealed, because then the wolves/bear will avoid them like the plague) but the BFFs? If one reveals they're dead toNight. The other reveals toMorrow and they're gone too. Sad but true.

[Macalaure]

Just a quick post now, since it's bedtime for me soon and I'll be gone for much of toMorrow.

It is entirely possible that the wolves considered Alona to be a goner (she's been under suspicion from almost the beginning on) and voted for her. It is also possible that morm is evil. However, let's not think about those possibilities now and instead ask the questions which of the morm-voters, plus Lommy and Nessa, looks most evil.

Nessa no-voted almost at the same time Alona did. I somehow doubt that two wolves would have tried the same trick at once. Of course, this does not rule out cobblery, and especially not bear-y.

As I said yesterDay, Sally was too happy. I don't think a wolf-Sally would have been so cheerful while a companion went down the plank. Of course, what holds for Nessa, holds for Sally, too (bear, cobbler).

I get more and more cobblerish vibes from Nerwen.

I used to trust Nienna, Autume, and Mira, but I might have to make up my mind.

I don't have any extra comment about Lommy, except that she's suspicious, but that isn't new.


I don't know how morm's so sure he has been protected. If so, the wolves probably think he's the bear and we should really give his voters the bad-cop treatment (since they probably tried to get him lynched), but there are other scenarios (as has been said, any Alona-voter made a good pick), not to mention the possibility that Shasta could have been just lucky (or the wolves unlucky). I don't see how we should benefit from the assumption anyway, considering that we have a cobbler and especially a bear. Shasta might have protected an evil one.

I also don't see the benefit of morm's plan. Only one of the BFFs can reveal, and he's probably the one we can be most certain of, since he has probably left a clue as to who the other one is. If the gifteds don't reveal their roles, this advantage isn't there, and we will have three claimed gifteds, one of which is the cobbler. If they reveal their roles, since we lack a ranger now, the two BFFs are probably dead within one night, two at most, and then bear and wolves may wonder which is the cobbler and which the hunter (or even decide to leave them alive). I do see the benefit of known innocents, but if we use them now, we'll waste them.


Another question, why did the bear kill Shasta? Did he do anything yesterDay that pointed toward giftedness? I'd need to check, but I don't think so. Hakon, Brinn, and Shasta... does anybody see a pattern?


And seriously, when I started writing this, I was sure it would only be a short, quick post.

[mormegil]

Please pay attention everybody...

When I proposed my plan I thought the BFF's could reveal together, they can't I was wrong. Being that my plan was based on that assumption it makes less sense once that is removed. My plan is flawed I admit, it sounded better in my head and when I thought the BFF's could reveal.

The great part of all of this, is if you leave me alive today, which I would advise, the wolves are still going to consider me the bear, or a likely candidate and kill me tonight only to find out I'm an ordo but they won't believe me even as I tell them I'm a wasted kill. If you want the bear kill Formendacil.

[Durelin]

Hah. I completely forgot about autum...

[Boromir88]

Memo to self: Next time morm is involved in a tie...keep flipping the coin until it lands on the side that kills him.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Memo to self: Next time morm is involved in a tie...keep flipping the coin until it lands on the side that kills him.

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition....

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by morm

When I proposed my plan I thought the BFF's could reveal together, they can't I was wrong.

That is not the only flaw in your proposed plan, morm.

Originally Posted by morm

If you want the bear kill Formendacil.

Then why did you retract your vote for him yesterDay, after you received support against him from Lommy?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

That is not the only flaw in your proposed plan, morm.

Never said it was, in fact I admitted a flaw when I proposed it as well.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Then why did you retract your vote for him yesterDay, after you received support against him from Lommy?

Two reasons, I'm still not certain of his guilt, my case was fairly weak, but he fits the bill for the profile I've formed and most importantly, self-preservation and the vote was for somebody I suspected.

You seem awfully ready to attack the plan Durelin, why? Just because I propose for the gifteds to possibly reveal themselves doesn't mean it's going to happen, it's to give the idea and see what happens.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by morm

You seem awfully ready to attack the plan Durelin, why?

Because I find you suspicious for your suggestion of it, and would like to see you defend it in order to get a better feel for you.

And why am I attacking you rather vehemently? Because you suggested that the only reason anyone here disagrees with you is because we're not as intelligent as the phantom.

Shocked?

[Nerwen]

...seoreh nellaf owT .esruoc fo ,mroN dnA ?atsahS tuoba das ti t'nsI !egalliv ,olleH

Originally Posted by mormegil

You can't be certain Durelin, but assume for a moment I am not a wolf, would I be a likely wolf target?

Yes, but only one of several.

Originally Posted by mormegil

You seem awfully ready to attack the plan Durelin, why? Just because I propose for the gifteds to possibly reveal themselves doesn't mean it's going to happen, it's to give the idea and see what happens.

Why are you still arguing this point, Morm? They can't reveal at the same time, remember? It doesn't matter whether your plan is good, bad, or indifferent– we can't do it.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Because I find you suspicious for your suggestion of it, and would like to see you defend it in order to get a better feel for you.

And why am I attacking you rather vehemently? Because you suggested that the only reason anyone here disagrees with you is because we're not as intelligent as the phantom.

Shocked?

So that's the real issue then? You felt I insulted your intelligence. I can assure you it was not meant as such. I meant more that this scheme would be to his liking and tactics. Not that he's more intelligent and therefore would understand it.

Nerwen, they can't both revel themselves? Huh, that's odd because I think I've mentioned that I realize that now. *sigh*

This is the problem with proposing any plan, somebody puts himself out there and tries to help out and it backfires nearly every time. Everybody jumps up and down pointing a finger..."Hey he said we should do something that I don't agree with he must be evil....KILL HIM!!!" Good mob mentality at work and all the while the real baddies are slipping through cracks and I'm forced to defend and redefend my position.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, but only one of several.

Think of it this way Nerwen, out of the few most likely wolf targets, who is also most likely to have been protected? I am 90% certain it was me but because I open my yapper and give a plan all attention is diverted to the plan. For that reason (all the attention to the plan and not on finding baddies) I regret presenting it.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by morm

So that's the real issue then?

No, that's the reason for some bitterness behind my attacking you.

I'm the only one who has so far suggested you are evil, other than Sally (but what's new there)...don't act so victimized already.

[Durelin]

Well, okay...Nerwen did vote for you yesterDay...

Sally and Nerwen don't count.

[mormegil]

In looking over the voting it is important to note that Durelin was the last to vote for Alona, my gut tells me these wolves aren't overly brazen and wouldn't go for that approach. I continue to think Durelin innocent of being a wolf.

Nerwen, Nienna, Mira and Sally (less on Sally) really poured on the votes for me at the end...disclaimer, I can't remember when Mira voted I think it was before Nienna and Nerwen. Anyway those are two suspects who seem to have wanted to save their compatriot. However, as I've brought up and others too Nerwen fits the bill for the cobbler.

I cannot remember Nienna voicing any major suspicion of me yesterday. Perhaps I'll go back and check but not now as it is bed time. If Nienna is innocent and how no strong suspicions of me why would she vote for me to possibly save Alona? The only reason is she felt Alona was very innocent, which is hard to believe. Otherwise a guilty Nienna could very easily have wanted to save her pack mate and saw that I was the most likely target other than Alona and went for me.

Again, I hope to review and see if she had any major suspicion of me but if any of you Europeans have time to do it while I sleep it would be great.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In a way I'm glad I retracted and 'changed' the outcome of the vote, because Alona's dead and we're down a wolf.

What the-? Didn't you retract and then vote Morm again?

Originally Posted by Durelin

No, that's the reason for some bitterness behind my attacking you.

I'm the only one who has so far suggested you are evil, other than Sally (but what's new there)...don't act so victimized already.

The only one? Morm nearly got the chop yesterDay– I reckon he's got something to feel victimised about. On the other hand, that edginess was there all yesterDay too– it's mainly why I voted him.

It now seems unlikely he's a wolf, though.

[Thinlómien]

I still don't get why morm is so confident he was attacked last Night. You can't know stuff like that, and if I had to start naming probable wolf kills, morm wouldn't even be in my top five. And even if he was protected last NIght, it doesn't make him innocent - he could still be the bear. So I don't see why anybody should believe any part of morm's claim.

I'm sorry to see Shasta go. Not only because he didn't get to play much, but obviously also because he was the ranger. With both the seer and the ranger gone, our future looks quite gloomy. We really had better keep lynching baddies.

Speaking of which, I'm glad you ended up lynching Alona. (If Form is the bear, that would've been better but good anyway. ) I think I'll go through Alona's posts and possibly even what people have said about her - if I have time - it could be useful.

Originally Posted by morm

Did Lommy vote?

Yes, it is even in the vote table you posted. I voted Form.

Now I'm to comment what happened yesterDay after I went to sleep and then I will have at least some sort of look at Alona.


xed with Nerwen

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I was under the impression Form always explains himself, among other things, a lot. Explaining is a favorite past-time of many people I know, and I am at least under the impression that he is one of them.

Well yes, he tends to explain a lot and I was silly not to think of that, but I still think he's sort of trying to excuse himself too much in this game to look completely honest.

Originally Posted by Durelin

All anyone seems to have to offer is that a bear likes to talk about his/herself, which I don't buy.

I never said that - I said Form's manner of speaking about the bear is suspicious, not the fact that he speaks about the bear (a lot).

And now I know why Shasta seemed so suspiciously edgy... it crossed my mind at some point he might be gifted but I decided he looks far more like a wolf... Well, I'm glad I/we didn't manage to get him lynched.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Rikae can you clarify creepy for me... I'd like to respond but yet find I don't know how to respond as I don't know what creepy means...

I'm not to sure what to make of this comment, because normally people just ignore such vague yet clearly enough phrased suspicions and let them be. Nienna, however, wanted an explanation to be able to defend herself and half of me says that's a sign of guilt, and the other half that it's a sign of innocence... go figure.

Originally Posted by Nienna

A baddie-Sally doesn't tend to overly state that she is innocent. She tends to imply her innocence without saying it out-right. I may be wrong with this but it is what I have noticed. So I trust her for the moment.

I had forgotten that, but now I remember - that's true. I recall one game where a wolf-Sally made a fake seer-reveal without directly saying she's the seer. So if she indeed has claimed innocence loudly (haven't noticed that, though) I'd be more inclined to believe her innocent than guilty.

Originally Posted by Form

We're playing Werewolf, of all things, and you think I'm being too analytical? I'm not saying I couldn't be the bear speculating out loud about my own strategies as the bear to misdirect people... but, at the same time, in a game that basically thrives on analysis and reading-into... you're going to convict me on that? Haven't you ever played with Nogrod? (*is being rhetorical... I know the answer)

There's nothing bad in being analytical per se, but as an experienced werewolf player you should probably know that many wolves have been caught because they have explained the Night kills so smartly and effortlessly (straight from their Nightly PMs) or have managed to give the impression they think (a lot) from the wolves' prespective. I'm not saying going inside a baddie's mind and speculating stuff is bad - on the contrary - but sometimes it looks so authentical it gives off bad vibes, often for a reason. And that's why I suspect you.

Originally Posted by Form

Really, anyone who appears suspicious during the Day is more likely to be a Wolf, because they're covering for other people that cripples how they can play. A Bear, on the other hand, has goals like a Wolf, but can play more like an Ordo.

You're right, and that's why I wouldn't advise going just bear-hunting. But if I see someone who looks like a bear I rather vote him than someone who looks like a wolf.

Originally Posted by Nessa

Well, I have no idea where my vote should go. It would be Alona, but I'll be sleeping at deadline, and I am loathe to vote someone who has no chance to defend themselves. Sooo.....
++no vote

This is really worth looking at now that we know Alona was a wolf. It seems very very suspicious. But it's rather puzzling too - why didn't she vote Form whom she said she suspected earlier (she was wondering whether to vote him or Alona)? Is it possible we're dealing with a Nessa-Form-Alona trio?

Originally Posted by autume about morm

Although I'm guessing he probably wouldn't suspect Rikae if they were both wolves in the same game.

Why not? (Not that they seem like mates, but that argument looks rather questionable.)

I think Rikae's case againt me makes her look more innocent, because when I was reading it I was thinking "hey, what? that woman makes everything I do look darn suspicious, aha, she plans to attack me based on this" and then was really surprised to see her conclusion as "60% innocent". If she was a wolf, she'd probably just exaggerate the case a bit (more) and say I must be guilty. She could still be the bear, anyway...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Thinks the bear may have killed Hakon because xe thought he was the cobbler
(I'm not sure why the bear would be after the cobbler...?)

Maybe because the cobbler helps the wolves, who are the bear's enemies, and the bear doesn't profit anything from having a cobbler around (unlike from having wolves around).

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac has a double standard
(presumably for calling Mira on her slip? What else should he do - let a wolvish slip go, and a wolf go free?

I don't think it was very wolvish after all.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Will vote for me if Sally/autume/Alona all innocent (! Why would that make sense from an innocent Lommie's perspective?)

Why wouldn't it? As a wolf, you'd be very crafty to make a random group of three innocent people and say "there must be one wolf here" because then you can basically get them all lynched (if you're good and lucky" by insiting "the first one wasn't so it must be some of the others" and "oh, the second one wasn't either, let's lynch the third one, ok?" and then apologise humbly when you turn out to be wrong.

Originally Posted by morm

I was glad to see Lommy jump on so quickly.

Jump on it? I have been suspecting Form of bear-ery since early Day2 and I was considering voting him all along! And "so quickly"? Maybe, but it was something around 1am and I needed to vote before going to sleep.

Originally Posted by morm

Yes but something is with Lommy. She is not being her usual self who goes after people with purpose, putting herself out in the open. She is not being bold at all and that concerns me greatly.

Not bold at all? What was saving another player at the last minute with no knowledge on their role? I didn't suspect Inziladun much more than Alona, but decided to act on it anyway. I think that's pretty bold, given that it didn't matter to me personally which one of them died and could just as well been accidentally saving a baddie (like it turned out to be).

Originally Posted by Form

This is true... but it occurs to me that this might just be case of not being properly immersed in the game--she missed all of Day 1 and its 14 pages, and so might not have acclimatised properly.

If you want to, you can excuse my Day2 behaviour by that, but not stuff from yesterDay or toDay.

Originally Posted by Rikae

No one expects the Mormish inquisition!

This totally made me crack up.

[Thinlómien]

I'm not doing the Alona analysis yet - no one seems to be around and it's lovely weather outside. I'll go to swim in the sea and maybe sit on the beach, I'll be back either in an hour or two, or then in the evening after work, but in any case I'm going to have a look at Alona at some point today.