Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Gwath

Here's a thought. If tp is so sure about Cailin, why hasn't he voted her yet?

Because, as I've said before, I always hold my vote just in case.

I suppose partly because I'm always afraid the village will do something stupid that my vote could have fixed had I held it.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Brin

For all we know, he and Rikae could both be evil.

If that's the case, then the evil team is darn suicidal.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Trust me on this.

There are two chances of that: fat and slim.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Gwath

There are two chances of that: fat and slim.

Why?

Explain to me exactly how Phantom=Bad works. How can you possibly explain the rationality of my reveal if I am in fact lying?

Sorry, but logic is firmly on my side here. You need to go with me- just this once.

[Diamond18]

Nilp for Rikae
Lhuna for Sally
Izzy for Di
Rikae for Rikae
morm for Lommy
Diamond for Cailin
Legate for Cailin

Rikae 2
Cailin 2
Sally 1
Di 1
Lommy 1

I'd say more, but then, I've said it all before.

[Durelin]

Wth, people, wth?

I've got more reading to do. Unless that would only confuse me more.

There are so many strings being pulled right now it's insane.

[Brinniel]

I'm thinking the best option at this point is to lynch phantom. If he's the hunter, then he'll take a wolf down with him because as he said, he's 100% sure about Cailin. If he's a wolf, then we've lynched a wolf. If he's the EW, he'll be found out. While I liked the idea of the wolves taking care of him during the Night, that's only based on the assumption that phantom is truthful...and I think it may be to risky to trust him.

As for Rikae...if she's lying (as I think she is), then we'll leave her to the GW and we'll know the truth about her by toMorrow.

Originally Posted by tp

If that's the case, then the evil team is darn suicidal.

Perhaps...but if you manage to fool the entire village, then acting suicidal could really be worked towards the evil team's advantage..

[mormegil]

*sigh* I take a short nap and come back to 3 or 4 additional pages. If I may sumarise what I have gathered in my quick review. Rikae claims to be the GW and the phantom rejects that claim based upon that fact that he is the hunter and has communicated with the GW. Personally, I don't see any reason why the GW would reveal him/herself and therefore I am disinclined to beleive Rikae. Additionally, the vibe I have gotten from Rikae is that of a baddie gloating over her power, I think she felt a bit over-confident. This is really a break through, though I wouldn't doubt it if she were merely a wolf trying to distract us. Either way it's up the the GW what he wants to do about this information.

[the phantom]

Brin, for Pete's sake, wait!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by tp

How can you possibly explain the rationality of my reveal if I am in fact lying?

Sorry, but logic is firmly on my side here. You need to go with me- just this once.

Obviously to confuse the village. Instead of just focusing on Rikae, you threw a whole other factor and diversion into the picture.

This comment makes me doubt you even more.

[Lalaith]

I'm thinking the best option at this point is to lynch phantom

Brinn, I was thinking that too...but then I thought, if he's telling the truth, that leaves our GW with just one team member. And the EW currently has four.
Not good. I think one way or another, there will be a challenge tomorrow. And I'd rather have our GW leave us with a full team. Wouldn't you?

[Thinlómien]

Brinn, stop confusing me by bringing yet another lynch candidate. I can't just ignore your suggestion either, it sounds tempting, but...but...

Phantom - is it so difficult to understnad that some are not ready to trust Rikae yet not ready to trust you either? I don't want to trust either of you. It's not a choice like "option a: I trust phantom and don't trust Rikae" and "option b: I trust Rikae and I don't trust phantom"! It's an individual decision each time, first question "do I trust Rikae?" and second question "do I trust phantom?". And I happened to answer "no" to both.


edit: xed with everybody after Brinn's #887

[Brinniel]

Brin, for Pete's sake, wait!

Wait for what? To vote for you?

Well, if you are actually a wolf of course you would want me to wait.

I'm not voting just yet, so you have time to convince me otherwise. But it seems the more you speak, the less I believe you...

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and as for Rikae being the EW, I'm ignoring the possibility because I just don't believe that. Why on earth would the EW do something like she did? It's almost as absurd as the GW acting that way...


edit: xed with Brinn

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Brinn, I was thinking that too...but then I thought, if he's telling the truth, that leaves our GW with just one team member. And the EW currently has four.
Not good. I think one way or another, there will be a challenge tomorrow. And I'd rather have our GW leave us with a full team. Wouldn't you?

But if he's truthful and we don't lynch him, he'll probably be killed during the Night anyways...so either way we'd still be down a hunter.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Brin

but if you manage to fool the entire village, then acting suicidal could really be worked towards the evil team's advantage..

How the heck am I supposed to fool the "entire village"?!

If I'm lying then it is impossible for me to fool the entire village, because the GW and real Hunter will know good and well that I'm lying!!

If I'm wrong, the Rikae is right, yes?

And if Rikae is right, the Legate is a WW, yes?

And so what in the name of Arda was I trying to accomplish when I revealed?!

All that it does is let the GW know the identity of yet another WW, which leaves open the possibility of losing a WW both today and tonight! That's absolutely a stupid thing to do! What is gained that balances out such a loss?

It makes no logical sense.

Stop trying to FEEL this thing out! THINK rationally- is there a likely benefit that will offset the guaranteed cost of such a move for a WW at this point in the game?

Answer- no.

Everyone keeps saying I want to "confuse the village". How is a few hours of confusion worth the guaranteed loss of a WW?

I'm sorry, but logic is firmly on my side. If you can't see it then you haven't slowed down enough to think everything through.

Vote Cailin.

Yeesh. We might as well hand this game to the EW.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by phantom

Sorry, but logic is firmly on my side here.

Well, really it looks more to me like all the logic is against Rikae, but not necessarily on your side.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm thinking the best option at this point is to lynch phantom. If he's the hunter, then he'll take a wolf down with him because as he said, he's 100% sure about Cailin.

Okayyy...but if he really is the hunter and we take care of him now, the Wolves won't have to deal with him toNight, which means it's an open one or two kills for them.

Lommy's desire to trust Rikae seems...crazy.

Originally Posted by morm

though I wouldn't doubt it if she (Rikae) were merely a wolf trying to distract us.

This is another thing to consider. In my skim-over it looks like people have talked a lot about how it doesn't make sense for the GW to reveal themselves, but does it make any more sense for the EW to reveal themselves at this point? I guess maybe if they are confident that their wolves can finish things off, which makes me wonder if we're completely on the wrong track. Whatever.

The way Rikae "came out" as more and more pressure was being placed on Cailin is very interesting, though.

Bleh, I need to step back for a moment.

So, I haven't made it into any more sigs? You guys couldn't make this an easy decision for me, could you?

Edit: Crossed with a bunch, duh.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If I'm wrong, the Rikae is right, yes?

Not necessarily. But that would be insane...


edit: xed with Dury

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Phantom - is it so difficult to understnad that some are not ready to trust Rikae yet not ready to trust you either? I don't want to trust either of you. It's not a choice like "option a: I trust phantom and don't trust Rikae" and "option b: I trust Rikae and I don't trust phantom"! It's an individual decision each time, first question "do I trust Rikae?" and second question "do I trust phantom?". And I happened to answer "no" to both.

Sorry, but it is either/or.

One of us is lying.

Does it make sense that it would be me, who had no logical reason to reveal at this stage in the game if a Baddie?

Originally Posted by Lal

Brinn, I was thinking that too...but then I thought, if he's telling the truth, that leaves our GW with just one team member. And the EW currently has four.
Not good. I think one way or another, there will be a challenge tomorrow. And I'd rather have our GW leave us with a full team. Wouldn't you?

Thank you!

If you lynch me, you're essentially doing the EWs dirty work for him. Way to go.

[Lalaith]

But if he's truthful and we don't lynch him, he'll probably be killed during the Night anyways...so either way we'd still be down a hunter

But if he's telling the truth and we kill Cailin, that will be one wolf down already, and if the wolves then kill him during the night I think he'll probably take down a wolf with him, because frankly after today's mayhem we've got some fairly good suspects here, on one side or the other.

[Rikae]

tp apparently realized I knew another wolf's identity. Well, he was right, but it wasn't him.

Really, this worked out beautifully.

[Eönwë]

tp, what's wroing with Cailin?:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, excellent. Hey Gwath- we have a member recruited for our Lynch Cailin Club!

Legate, my good friend and business partner, what do you think? Interested in joining?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Come on Izzy. Vote Cailin please. *gives puppy dog eyes*

Originally Posted by the phantom

That's precisely why we should lynch Cailin rather than me.

Well oviuosly she would do a comeback.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Please everyone, vote for the phantom. I really, really think he's suspicious. Incidentally, be my friend.

I think one of them is (now, if not since the beginning), a werewolf.
But the thing is we don't know who yet.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lal

But if he's telling the truth and we kill Cailin, that will be one wolf down already, and if the wolves then kill him during the night I think he'll probably take down a wolf with him, because frankly after today's mayhem we've got some fairly good suspects here, on one side or the other.

Yes! Ten points for Lal.

And if the EW scries me to avoid my kill, that means he can't make another WW during the night! Yet another victory!!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by tp

One of us is lying.

Maybe just one. Or maybe both.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

But if he's telling the truth and we kill Cailin, that will be one wolf down already, and if the wolves then kill him during the night I think he'll probably take down a wolf with him, because frankly after today's mayhem we've got some fairly good suspects here, on one side or the other.

He won't take another wolf down because surely the EW will scry him first making him an ordo. Don't get me wrong...I did hesitate for a moment because if tp is honest it be nice to simply let the wolves waste their time taking care of him. But again, that's assuming he's honest. And I'm beginning to doubt that more and more.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Blah. Blah. Blah.

Broken record, anyone?

Should we not be focusing on someone else? Do you know how many people are flying under the radar right now? I'm talking Mormegil here. That guy is dodgy.

Seriously, phantom, your case against me is about as good as my case against Mormegil. Just because you keep saying logic is on your side, it does not make it so.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, phantom. I may have to admit that I trust you more than I trust Rikae. (Because it would indeed quite weird of you to do what you're doing if you were a baddie, you've demonstrated that point quite convincingly.)

But that's not much and I do not trust you. I cannot see all ends. You could still be a weirdo bluffing baddie and as it's you of all the people here, I'm double-cautious.

See, as I can't completely choose between the two of you, and because I'm keeping in mind the (however crazy) possibility that you could both be lying, I'd rather lynch Rikae just to be on the safe side, even if there's a minimal risk that she's the EW and not a wolf and thus we can't lynch a wolf if we lynch her.

Can you understand my point of view?


edit: xed with everything since tp's 899

[Diamond18]

*sigh*

I didn't want to do this, but... I think that the confusion here is not good for the Good team, and since Rikae has seemingly got what she wanted, I may as well let the thick villagers in on it.

Rikae's not the Good Wizard. I am.

This is possibly surprising to some of you, considering my devil may care attitude, questions and missteps about the rules, seemingly "forgetting" that Day 1 had come till late in the Day. But I was trying to act like the least possible Wizard, to lessen suspicion of me. Pretending to be someone who hasn't paid close attention to "hard core" stuff, etc. Acting silly and stupid seemed the best way.

My role in the village is a joke on the fact that I do not, in real life, currently have a job.

Diamond + No Job + Internet At Home = All the Time in the World

I told Nogrod this. Now I'm telling you.

So, that's various reasons why you should believe me when I say that I am the Good Wizard.

Keep in mind that there are 5 evil people in this village. Rikae and Cailin are the ones I know about for sure.

Rikae's false reveal today caused me to post far more and far more seriously than I was intending. I'll bet you that she's gloating about this.

Well, I'll see you tomorrow, Mommy.

In the meantime, DON'T lynch my Hunter!

The Phantom is of far more use to me at Night.

Cailin is a Wolf, lynch her and be done with it.

This is all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Really, people, and given Rikae's stance towards tp, it does not seem likely that the two of them are together in any union. That Rikae is evil is clear (at least to me 100%, which I am very grateful of). So I say we listen to the phantom and vote for Cailín. For those who are indecisive, just say to yourselves: "Let's give it a shot, we will know for certain after that happens," and then jump into the water. I believe this being the best way now.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Rikae's not the Good Wizard. I am.

GAHH! *throws self against wall*

I don't know what to believe anymore. I just don't.

[Kath]

Oh ... flibble. Well, for my part I'm for trusting phantom here and lynching Cailin. Whoever it was that set out the list of possible outcomes for that, well, it pretty much agreed with what was going on in my head. In addition, the timing and nature of Rikae's revelation just made it seem suspicious even before I got as far as phantom's counter revelation. In addition, I thought I saw a clue from a possible GW earlier and that seemed to chime with what phantom said.

So, because I am unlikely to be here at the deadline:

++CAILIN

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

tp apparently realized I knew another wolf's identity. Well, he was right, but it wasn't him.

Ah, so you are the EW, eh? You admit that you know the identities of yet other WWs, and that I'm not one of them.

Eonwe- have you been keeping up? Did you read the part where I'm the Hunter, and that the GW told me Cailin was a WW?

Originally Posted by Brin

Maybe just one. Or maybe both.

Oh, please. That would be just plain stupid. If that was the case, then all we basically did was show up and say "Both of us are WWs!" to the GW.

Originally Posted by Brin

He won't take another wolf down because surely the EW will scry him first making him an ordo.

That's exactly WHAT WE WANT!!

If the EW scries me then he can't make another WW!!

Originally Posted by Cailin

Seriously, phantom, your case against me is about as good as my case against Mormegil.

I don't need a case. The GW told me who you were. My "case" earlier today was just a cover for trying to get you lynched without revealing myself.

[Thinlómien]

Alright. I trust phantom because I trust Di. If they were both baddies this would be just horrible. And on top of that Cailín's last post, being so unrelated to everything, clearly proves that she's a wolf.

But the question remains, why to lynch Cailín and not Rikae if they're both wolves?


edit: xed with everything since Di's revelation... and now I'm letting Greenie come here

[Lalaith]

Should we not be focusing on someone else?

Ok Cailin, that does it. That attempt at a diversion has just made up my mind for me - you have *got* to be a wolf. Why in the name of Arda should we start confusing ourselves even further by focusing on other people, we need to sort out this problem toDay, and then sift through the evidence tomorrow.

++CAILIN

It's my belief that the aim of toDay was to create confusion, which is a EW not a GW thing to do. Cailin's just done that - tried to create more confusion. The GW wants to unify the village. Rikae wouldn't have revealed and then run away if she were a good wizard with the village's best interests at heart.

If Cailin is guilty, then Rikae is bad. So, I think, are Lommy and Roa. Who is the baddest of them all, I don't know, but we can sort all that out tomorrow.
If phantom turns out to be the baddie, after all, then GW Rikae or whoever else she is shielding, can sort that out toNight.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

*sigh*

I didn't want to do this, but... I think that the confusion here is not good for the Good team, and since Rikae has seemingly got what she wanted, I may as well let the thick villagers in on it.

Rikae's not the Good Wizard. I am.

*sigh*

And another reveal. I was sort of afraid of that when you were talking about scrying strategy to reduce wolf numbers earlier...

Cailin is a Wolf, lynch her and be done with it.

This is all.

Ok.

++ Cailín

[Kath]

Ah! Di just revealed! Well, she's who I thought I'd seen the clue from earlier so at least that all works. Hmm, I do have a niggling feeling that this could be the most blinding bluff ever played, especially with Di and phantom masterminding it, but I decided to trust them and I'll stick by that decision.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Di

Rikae's not the Good Wizard. I am.

Aw dang, I thought this might be coming after wondering for a moment why you were as 100% sure as phantom...sorry, Di.

Now, Di's reveal makes sense.

++Cailin

Now you're really my hero.

Edit: Crossed with everyone after Legate.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

tp, what's wroing with Cailin?

Read the really long post by me. The REALLY long one. Also, tp says that GW told him that Cailin is a wolf.

The single strongest point in tp's favor is that it wouldn't make sense for Rikae, if she were the GW, to reveal herself right now. So she likely isn't the GW.

[Cailín]

*chants* We got the Good Wizard, we got the Good Wizard.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

But the question remains, why to lynch Cailín and not Rikae if they're both wolves?

Because Rikae could be the EW.

I'm more inclined to trust Di as well. But before I take action I need to think, as much as my brain already hurts. I just don't want to fall into a trap.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Cailin

*chants* We got the Good Wizard, we got the Good Wizard.

Well, that does it.

++Cailin