WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

However...let's throw a little wrench in the bandwaggon.

Morsul probably is not furry. If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this. They do NOT work well together in the least. Morsul wouldn't even play in the same game as her last game.

Remember how we chose our own roles? This is pretty meta-reasoning, Lottie.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Remember how we chose our own roles? This is pretty meta-reasoning, Lottie.

I didn't take that to be her actual reason. Lottie?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Remember how we chose our own roles? This is pretty meta-reasoning, Lottie.

Yeah, it is, but normal reasoning just doesn't apply to him, as he follows no rules of common sense. So, you have to think "what would an illogical Morwolf do with packmate Sally?" And the answer is, go mad, probly.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Confusion sets in...

Lottie, I think Shasta thinks you're saying they wouldn't have chosen to be wolves together, therefore probably aren't. Which would be silly, of course.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Confusion sets in...

Lottie, I think Shasta thinks you're saying they wouldn't have chosen to be wolves together, therefore probably aren't. Which would be silly, of course.

No, light of my life. I'm saying that Lottie says Wilwa wouldn't have done it to Morsul and Sally, but we chose our own roles this game by way of choosing our characters, so Wilwa didn't really do anything.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Confusion sets in...

Lottie, I think Shasta thinks you're saying they wouldn't have chosen to be wolves together, therefore probably aren't. Which would be silly, of course.

Ah. No, I mean that they simply would not have been able to work together. You see, Morsul can't seem to work with her at all. Like, ever. What I was saying is that there's no way they would have been able to be as sane as they were/are if they were driving each other crazy every Night.

Also, this sort of explains his early Sally vote - he just wants her dead every game.

EDIT: xed with Shasta...and again, not quite.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Ah. No, I mean that they simply would not have been able to work together. You see, Morsul can't seem to work with her at all. Like, ever. What I was saying is that there's no way they would have been able to be as sane as they were/are if they were driving each other crazy every Night.

Also, this sort of explains his early Sally vote - he just wants her dead every game.

EDIT: xed with Shasta...and again, not quite.

"Not quite"? That's what I'm saying in response to what you're saying!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

"Not quite"? That's what I'm saying in response to what you're saying!

Heh. All I mean is, Morsul did not act like I think he would have if Sally had been driving him insane. For that matter, neither did Sally. He acted like usual Confusing!Morsul and she acted like usual Silly Sally, not like Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him or like Silly-Sally-being-exasperated-by-Morsul.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No, light of my life. I'm saying that Lottie says Wilwa wouldn't have done it to Morsul and Sally, but we chose our own roles this game by way of choosing our characters, so Wilwa didn't really do anything.

Ah, now I understand, my treasure.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Heh. All I mean is, Morsul did not act like I think he would have if Sally had been driving him insane. For that matter, neither did Sally. He acted like usual Confusing!Morsul and she acted like usual Silly Sally, not like Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him or like Silly-Sally-being-exasperated-by-Morsul.

Okay... and you're confident you can tell the difference? How do you think Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him would have acted?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay... and you're confident you can tell the difference? How do you think Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him would have acted?

A fair question. I think he would have pushed very, very hard for a lot more wolf-on-wolf.

Seriously, though, he would have seemed a lot more frustrated and perhaps a bit more flamboyant. Sally tends to draw him out, usually in a bad way.

[Nerwen]

(I've quoted all her posts in full this time, as there were only four, of medium length, and their content is interesting.)

#463

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Morsul does make a good point and it's certainly a possibility. But it could go either way. It's also possible Sally was making a double bluff and he's in fact innocent.

Glirdan entered the Day late and went through the thread page by page. He started suspecting Sally from the very beginning, and I'm not sure it's clear whether he was aware she was ahead in votes when he was posting these opinions. Though if he were a wolf, I would suspect he would check the vote tally first....if innocent, maybe not. Would an evil Glirdan go after his packmate so eagerly from the beginning of his posts for the Day? If they were both wolves, it would make sense for them to go against each other at the very end since a wolf will be lynched either way. But I don't think Glirdan was a serious candidate until the end of the Day and he started suspecting Sally before that. I suppose if he saw the vote tally and decided she was a lost cause, he could've chosen to throw her under the bus to make himself look better.

Hmm...this is something to think about. It seems quite possible Glirdan is indeed a wolf, but it's definitely something we can't be certain of. It'd be a really good idea to review both Sally and Glirdan's posts from the last two Days. Unfortunately, I will have to pass that task onto someone else as I need to write a debate due tomorrow I haven't even started. I'll be available for the next several hours to make brief comments, but I just won't have any time to write anything very substantial toDay.

Comments: As I showed in my analysis, Glirdan was anything but eager in the pursuit of Sally. I thought Skip at #478 was the first to claim that, but it was in fact Brinniel.


#468

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So it seems Nienna's vote was indeed the deciding vote of the Day. If I counted correctly, the final tally was 8-6. Had Nienna voted for Glirdan instead, it would've been a tie at 7-7 and since Glirdan would've received the last vote, he would've been lynched. So what does this say about Nienna?

If Glirdan is a wolf, she could be anything. If Glirdan is innocent, it would seem more likely that Nienna is innocent. Of course, it is always possible a Nienna-wolf threw her packmate under the bus, though that would've been a bold move since she did have the opportunity to save her. She would have to be pretty confident her team would do just as well if not better without Sally, or believe that Sally would probably be lynched soon anyway so she might as well make herself look better. I'm just not sure how likely that scenario actually is.

Btw, no one has mentioned Izzy's death. My first thought is she was an easy kill because she didn't receive much attention from most players. Though I wonder if there could be more to it. Perhaps it'd be a good idea to look through her posts too...if only I had the time.

Comments: All fair points and logical– the focus on the implications of an innocent-Glirdan scenario does remind me of Nogrod, but that may be coincidence.


#484.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Seeing Nienna's quotes about Sally, considering she was suspecting her from earlier in the Day and the way she went about suspecting, I'd be really surprised if she wasn't innocent...in the scenario that Glirdan is innocent.

So what to do with Glirdan...

One thing I worry is that if he is innocent, this is a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching since I suspect there may be a pretty heavy bandwagon against him toDay. But on the other hand, we can't really know his role for sure until he is lynched...knowing his role would certainly shed light on some things.

I'd love to hear Glirdan's defense, but unfortunately I don't think that'll be happening before I leave for the Day.

#492. Casts second vote on Glirdan

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he was innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

What to make of this? If I had to go by Day 3 alone, I'd say she might well be Glirdan's packmate. Yet, her Day One and Two posting seems innocent on the whole, and I've seen nothing there to suggest links to the other two known wolves.

She has already talked about some of her Day 3 posting at #675 toDay.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

any slight reluctance I showed in voting Glirdan wasn't so much of me questioning his role, but I was frustrated I had to vote early because I wanted to give him a chance to defend himself first. I've been lynched before without having the chance to defend myself and regardless of role, it really does suck to have that happen. Well, he never did show up to protest the cases against him, but I didn't know at the time he'd turn out to be a complete no-show. Also, I never got much of a chance to look at other players aside from Glirdan, which would've been nice. But honestly, I most likely would've voted him anyway.

[Aganzir]

I'm disappointed Inzy died because when Nog was revealed as a wolf, I came to the conclusion that it was very unlikely they were wolves together (the way Nog attacked Inzil because of his phrasing and the way Inzil reacted)... But ah well maybe it's better this way.

Today I want to have a look at Nerwen.

What we have left is a wolf, the ranger, a sheriff, the unicorn - and 7 ordos, one of whom the cursed.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.

It should be done whether it will tell us something or not... But I'm afraid she was killed because of what you said; probably everybody considered her innocent. And the last wolf might have thought her death might help frame Inzil.

And Lottie is still alive. In addition to Boro (obviously enough special) and Greenie (for her Nog suspicion), the wolves have killed Izzy and Nienna, neither of whom anybody suspected... One possibility is that the wolves are really desperate to find the cursed and don't care much about whom they kill (either they get a gifted or a potential cursed), so they simply start with the ones that are suspected the least.

I don't think Morsul is the last wolf. Yes there are points against him, but actually I think he looks pretty innocentish. And his self-vote... Of course it might be a bluff, but I have a hard time seeing a wolf do that, unless he has already given up without a fight.

Originally Posted by Morsul

since Nienna suspected me I'll be under fire anyway.

I wouldn't have thought so. I think she was killed mostly for looking so innocent, not because of her suspicions.

Originally Posted by Brinn

If I'm correct, there is one wolf left among nine players with unknown roles.

Among ten players with unknown roles, actually (although for each of the innocents, it's technically nine players).

Originally Posted by Lottie on Morsul

If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this.

While I agree Morsul probably isn't a wolf, I wouldn't use that as an explanation... After all we chose our roles ourselves. Oh yes Shasta said the same.

**

As for yesterday...

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month.

Originally Posted by Nog

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?

I suppose this warrants an answer... My effort went to sleep with my brain. I've had a very busy week with little time to post, and I'd have to adopt a totally new playing style to be as productive as I'd like to be. I should have more time today (at least if I don't attend a lecture about the portrayal of LGBT in movies) though.
And yes, yesterday I was feeling pretty positive about the outcome of the lynch.

Originally Posted by skip

This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?

I noticed that too but I'm more inclined to think it was an honest mistake. Morsul seems like the kind of person who doesn't pay so much attention to what he says than most of us.

Originally Posted by Legate

That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

Legate has been acting quite innocent thus far but I'm starting to get worried about him. Mainly because of the way he's been wavering about lynching the wolves... But then again there's sally's vote for him (albeit a throw-away).
Really, he seems way too undecided to my liking and it's not like the Legate I remember.

Originally Posted by skip

How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

We crush his teeth one by one.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I just can't see a wolf grouping two packmates as suspicious.

Says who?

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think there's something funny going on between him and Lommy, but I'm not sure what yet.

Most likely it was just Nogwolf trying to frame innocent Lommy and get us to have second thoughts about her.

Trust:
Lottie
Lommy
Shasta. Nog's attack on him yesterday might be wolf-on-wolf but I don't know if even he would draw attention to a fellow like that. And Shasta has been reasonable and innocentish anyway.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

I think the reference is to this:

#618.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now?

Legate at #630 was talking talking about reasons why Greenie was killed, and the significance of Nogwolf's peculiar take on it. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

However, Legate is probably another one who needs looking at– I mean, I don't think anyone has paid him that much attention this game, which is odd in itself.

But I doubt I'm going to have time toDay.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think the reference is to this:

Yeah I know, I just didn't understand what he was saying... I thought that after talking a lot about how random something (don't remember exactly what and don't bother checking) was, he said that what I had said might not be true. And it didn't make sense.

[Thinlómien]

I'm around. Not much to say, really - not very surprised of the outcome of yesterDay's lynch (and I think it's sort of even now, Nogrod-seer busted me-wolf on Day1 last game so I don't feel very guilty of being an active part of getting him-wolf lynched based on a seer's points although the seer was not me ) or of the Night kill choice (I agree with those who think Nienna's death pointed to eliminating someone universally thought innocent).

Also, Agan said that the last wolf is now probably not much caring about who to kill because any ordo can be the cursed and getting rid of the gifteds is good (especially now after that the hunter's gone, there's only the unicorn whose death would be undesirable for the wolf). Somehow I have the feeling, though, that Lottie's going to keep us company for some time still...

Off to reply quotes from yesterDay and toDay. If I have time today, I'd love to have a look to Nog's interactions with people. However, I have to be at work in two hours and I have stuff to do before that, and my evening might be busy...

[Nerwen]

Brinniel, Day 4

#576
Wants to look at Glirwolf's posts, thinks other wolves may be found amongst those who were "hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon".


#600
Analyses Greenie's comments on Nogrod, agrees they may well point to his being a wolf. Is surprised by Greenie's death, as she found Greenie suspicious and would have thought the wolves would keep her alive for that reason.


#604
Analyses Glirdan's comments on other players.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

On Day 2, he started with putting Legate and Sally as suspicious. That makes Legate look better since I doubt he'd list two wolves there. He later lists Mira and winty as possible suspects. Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

Comments: Nothing much. The conclusions she draws here are a bit on the thin side, though.


#606
Lists "those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch" (me, Zil, Skip and Aganzir), "those eager for one" (Morsul, Nienna and Lommy) and those who were just "wishy washy" (Legate and Nogrod). Legate, Agan, Nogrod and I look bad, Lommy and Nienna look good.

Comments: As I've said before, while Skip and Zil did defend Glirdan (Skip wasn't just "hesitant"!), her claim about me rests on a single out-of-context quote and is a fairly serious misrepresentation. (I haven't checked whether or not this applies to Agan as well.) And compare to
Brinn's own Day 3 posting!

Still, is this actually wolfish? I don't know... I think a Wolfiel might have been more aware of how she herself had come across that Day. I mean, wolves tend to monitor themselves more than innocents do. (Also, at least one of those she listed as "bad" (Nogrod) was actually a wolf.)


#645
Suspicion list:
winty, Aganzir, Legate, Morsul and Nienna are "innocentish". She has no idea about Zil, Mira, Shasta and Lommy. I am "possibly wolfish" and Nogrod "wolfish".

Comments: While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players. (Possibly I've missed a post or two in between, but I can't find it.)


#646
Casts 6th vote on Nogrod: "there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt."


General Comments: Doesn't look too bad, really. This all *could* be a wolf-on-wolf attack, but it would have to be a very well-played one indeed, even for her.

General remarks on Brinniel, based on all 4 Days:

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

*shrugs*
I guess I'll have to leave it at "inconclusive", for now.

EDIT:X'd with Aganzir and Lommy; added comment.
EDIT2:Added heading.

[Thinlómien]

YesterDay

I'm ignoring all Nog says. He definitely knew he's going down - the case was clear from the beginning of the Day, unlike with Sally looking at whose posts has been criticised - and given how Sally's toying with serious wolf-on-wolf suspicion backfired, I have hard time imagining Nog making the same mistake (ie trying to bluff or double-bluff by randomly calling his fellows either very guilty or very innocent). He's too smart for that. (Aargh now I really feel like looking at his posts after all and seeing whom he kept from overt spotlight to see who might've been his fellow. Grr. Must not fall for that.)

Originally Posted by Nog, but since this was universally discussed I'm quoting it

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent?

No, no. Let me make it clear: I first thought Greenie might've dreamt of Agan when looking just at her Day1 posts, but then when I looked at all her posts, it didn't make any sense, so I scratched that theory. I definitely don't think Agan was seer-dreamt, Greenie wouldn't have flip-flopped on her that way if she had dreamt of her. To recapitulate: I think she first dreamt either of Mira and Boro (none of her claiming somebody innocent seemed dream-based, so her Night1 dream would've been somebody whose innocent-seemingness she couldn't reasonably have commented on while she was around, which only leaves Mira and Boro who didn't post anything but banter/"hi I'm here" before Greenie left) and then probably of Skip and then of Nog.

Legate seemed rather wishy-washy about voting a wolf... again. makes me raise my eyebrows.


ToDay

Originally Posted by Shasta

Bad - We lost Nienna, who most considered innocent.

Worse - We also lost our Hunter.

Worst - We also lost an innocent Inzil.

I didn't see any gifted vibes from Nienna, so I'm concluding that she was killed because so many thought her innocent (in fact, I can't remember anyone suspecting her for real).

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.

Somehow, this looks rather fishy. What's bad about losing the hunter? The hunter's aim is to die. The bad thing here is that hunter chose wrong, not that we lost her. Also, even if you didn't get gifted vibes from Nienna, the wolf might have, unless you're him.

I would rather take a different view to what Nienna's death can reveal - probably not who considered her a threat in the lynch sense but rather who would've been afraid to kill her fearing she could be the hunter. For that, I would only look at Day4 posts and not draw any hasty conclusions - from what Shasta posted, I got the idea she was posting merely several vague suspects, and if a wolf looks at people's loads of vague suspicions and doesn't dare to kill them because s/he appears on the list just because the person in question might be the hunter and might be hunting him/her (and not any of the several other vague suspicions) that would really be quite paranoid of him/her.

Actually if somebody really wans to use their time with Nienna, it'd make probably more sense to see who she trusted, because if we assume the wolf was paranoid about not getting hunter-killed (and thus losing) last Night, then those people would be the ones who would've been feeling safe with killing her (especially if she trusted somebody others didn't so much, I'd raise my eyebrows).

Anyway, I'm quite divided about this Nienna issue - we could find clues in her posts but then again quite probably it's waste of time as long as we don't know how much the wolf was thinking of the hunter last Night, if at all.

I'm not sure I like Shasta's rather one-sided looking morsulysis. He seems awfully quick to come up with a posibly popular lynch candidate for toDay.

I don't like Morsul's martyr-show either, simply because as the only remaining wolf he would feel depressed already and could thus easily overreact to suspicion against him and lose faith in his chances. Although I wonder, a wolf giving up would probably have phrased it differently...?

Can somebody explain this Morsul-Sally thingy to me? Is it really so serious one of them would quit the game or do something about as drastic if they had to be packmates? Morsul voted Sally on early Day2 anyway, so if he was exasperated at being fellows with her after two Night-discussions, that would make sense. That's why I don't get how it proves his innocence...

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month.

Trying to boss me around, eh? Well, anyway, I can leave the dishes for you for I'm not a part of such conspiracy - this might be seen as self-promoting, but I did vote Glirdy on Days 2 and 3 and Nog on Day4, which is something I'm not sure I'd have the guts (or idiocy/sense, depends which pow you take it) to do as their fellow wolf.

But still, I don't think that in this game we can exonerate anyone who's been voting wolves in 3-4 Days in a row. The suspicions against Sally, Glirdan and Nog were always quite clear from the beginning of the day (least so with Sally) that any wolf could've sensed the flow and jumped on the boat too. However, it might pay off to look at people who were hesitant to vote (whether they ended up voting a wolf or not) these three because I have hard time imagining a wolf who would happily join a bandwagon against a fellow three Days in a row - s/he would need to have quite a lot of self-confidence!


PS. Forgot to mention earlier, but to the one who sent me the anonymous message: although it was nothing serious, it's definitely not appreciated, be you dead or living or even not participating. Shh!


edit: xed with Nerwen, added a smiley

[Morsul the Dark]

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

[Aganzir]

It's raining and I don't feel like walking anywhere, which means I'm going to skip the lecture (plus I would've had to leave already if I had wanted to be there on time). Which means I could try to get my post count above wilwa's.

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nog
Lommy -> Nog (2)
skip -> Shasta (2)
Shasta -> Nog (3)
Legate -> Nog (4)
Inziladun -> Nog (5)
Brinn -> Nog (6)
Nogrod -> Shasta (3)
ww -> Nog (7)
Lottie -> Nog (8)
Nerwen -> Nog (9)

Didn't vote: Nienna & Mira.

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.
To be honest I wouldn't mind if she was modfired because she's posted so little it would feel weird to lynch her at this point.

So... everybody but three people voted for Nog.

First, Morsul. By the time he voted, suspicions had already started to gather around Nog. However he didn't comment on them with a word but kept talking about other stuff and voted for Shasta in the end. Somehow I think that if he and Nog had been fellows, he would've felt compelled to say something about Nog. And being so proud of voting for two wolves, if he had known Nog's role wouldn't he have voted for him, too? I think yes. And I think Morsul looks quite innocent.

Then, skippy. He gave Shasta another vote (and tied him with Nog although there were still lots of votes to come). His vote looks worse because it made Shasta a serious lynching candidate (like, if somebody wanted to save Nog, they would've voted for Shasta). In 621 he talked about Green's death but didn't say anything about the did Green dream of Nog scenario, either, and he thought Shasta and Morsul might be the last wolves. He had been suspecting Shasta before though, so it wasn't anything new. He expressed second thoughts about Nog only in his vote post (when Nog had two votes).
Now, I assume that when the wolves killed Greenie, they thought she might be the seer. And I imagine Nog said to his fellows something along these lines: "If she's the seer, don't try to save me but make yourself look better because if you're caught, we're done." Because to me it just doesn't make sense that the last wolf would risk getting caught by trying to save Nog. And although the placing of skippy's vote is slightly evil (could be more of a timezone issue though), I don't think he's a wolf. Plus it's possible Green dreamed of him.

And the last to vote for Shasta was Nog himself. Either it's wolf-on-wolf or Nog wanted to give us doubts about innocent Shasta. Personally I doubt he'd throw his fellow under the spotlight like that, but then again Nogwolf is usually ready to do most anything to look better himself (however when he voted there was little chance Shasta would be lynched, it was 6-3 for Nog).
Shasta has looked pretty innocent though, and I'd rather take Nog's yesterday posts with a pinch of salt anyway.

At least for me, this has narrowed the field to those who voted for Nog. Not exactly helpful, given that most people did that, but we have to start from somewhere...

Now that we know three wolves, finding the fourth shouldn't be so difficult. The easiest thing to do would be to continue Lommy's massive summary with Nog's interactions with people, and I might do it later today if nobody else wants to undertake the task. However first I'd like to look into Nerwen's posts (but even before that I'm going to get some food & tea).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

This, while utterly hilarious I'm afraid just sent you shooting up in my suspicions, Morsul. It sounds as if you're grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied you.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

[Thinlómien]

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:

Everybody's votes thus far

Winty
Day1 Brinn
Day2 Sally
Day3 no vote
Day4 Nog

Lommy
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nogrod

Morsul
Day1 Winty
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Shasta

Agan
Day1 Mira
Day2 Zil
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Legate
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Sally
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Skip
Day1 Fea
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Shasta
Day4 Shasta

Shasta
Day1 Greenie
Day2 Morsul
Day3 Greenie
Day4 Nog

Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

Nerwen
Day1 no vote
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nog

Mira
Day1 no vote
Day2 Winty
Day3 no vote
Day4 no vote


edit: xed with all

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Agan

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.

Thanks for pointing it out, I hadn't noticed. I think she's going through some RL stuff with work and whatnot, so I'll give her today. If she doesn't vote today then she'll be modfired.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:
Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

And I thought I was doing well Brinn might be the last wolf... 4 for 4... Not really enough of course but warrants a look.

[Thinlómien]

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair? My answers are possibly not and not unless she starts to post more.

Brinn has creepily good voting record! Although voting Fea doesn't make it any more creepy since the wolves don't know the cobbler. And if you remove the Fea vote, you could call Nerwen and my voting records just as creepy...

I'm not sure I buy Agan's point about Nog telling his fellow to make himself look by suspecting him, but if we assume it's true, then Shasta and Agan herself look worse (the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog) and Morsul (did w-o-w before but not against Nog).

PS. Does bringing this up make Agan look more innocent? No, because if that occured to her, she'd definitely say it even as a wolf. I know well enough that she posts all good points she has even if they work slightly against the wolves because it tends to make her look more innocent.

More thoughts on stuff later, now I have to go...


edit: xed with Moddess and Morsul

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am around, however not sure how much time I will have. Not right now, at least, maybe later in the evening (that is, some six hours from now, or a bit later).

For now, in any case, at least here goes my favoured suspect Inzil, and I need to look at other people, even though I sort of wanted to give it a shot. Morsul has raised some controversy, as I see, though he seemed innocent to me before - or at least a "normal Morsul". This self-vote is slightly more puzzling, but then again, if I think about it more deeply, I could imagine an annoyed Morsul doing that. Nonetheless, it can be a last desperate attempt to save himself (or rather half-desperate half-resigned move, as it does not have a perspective, I believe, even if it was so and if it was succesful in making the village go "a Wolf wouldn't say that, let's leave him alone", eventually in a Day or two we'd return to him, I'm sure, but still I can imagine Morsul doing it). But since I cannot tell according to his behavior whether he is just innocent Morsul or maybe a more clever version of Morsul pretending to be innocent, I might as well look at his interactions with sally/Glirdan/Nogrod when I have time (which means not now). That's something that probably should be the key to us in general, as far as we can gather from their attitudes towards other people. We should bear in mind that the WWs, especially later (Nog?) when they saw they are rather doomed, might have possibly tried to disconnect themselves from their remaining packmate, however, there are still certainly things where they'd be more careful and e.g. avoid talking too much with their mates or something. Also the earlier we go (when they felt safe), I think the more we could find, although of course then again, back then they could not have had problems with interacting with their packmates in certain ways because there were just still many people and the WWs didn't think they'll be spotted.

Anyway - that's something that I am going to possibly try to do, but later, for now I will hang around for a while, but probably not have much time to read anything in detail, and then I will be off for several hours.

As for the death of Nienna, as far as I can see it seems most probable to me that she was killed as a person who was generally thought innocent. No other obvious motives (and seems nobody else noticed anything like that either).

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

And last of all, I've been called wishy-washy on Wolves, come on, I have voted them in the end (or more or less), and I think a Wolf wouldn't make such a show out of being undecided. That is, speaking of that, also something I want to consider when looking for the WW connections - I think the WWs will be generally rather decided (if they e.g. decided to nail their comrade from the beginning), or with some "back door" open there, but not so openly (i.e. not like talking to oneself aloud for ten posts whether to vote this person or not, but sort of quietly remarking "...but what it" or leaving the door open, Nogrod actually has partially done something like that). I think for example reviewing Nogrod's behavior towards those who seemed to be getting obviously lynched (esp. Glirdan, since with Sally it was Wolf or Wolf) might give some clue to the identity of the last Wolf, i.e. maybe if there was somebody with the same/diametrally opposite behavior who at the same time was sort of careful and not interacting with Nogrod too much etc. - such a person would be a likely suspect for me. But, like I said, I don't have time to check it now.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan, and certainly thanks to Lommy for the list! So maybe I can actually look at something now at least generally...

[Morsul the Dark]

Brinn: ++Fea

It's not unusual for her to vote out of thin air and disappear, and it doesn't say anything about her role. But for once, I'd like her to actually explain her vote. Voting that early without an explanation is a dangerous thing, and it can start bandwagons as we are already seeing. While it's certainly possible it's just an innocent Fea having fun, I could also very well see an evil Fea pulling it off thinking she can get away with such a vote with little scrutiny...she has before. And not only has she not explained her vote, but she has not made any sort of contribution. Only two posts, a vote and banter. Perhaps she is busy, but so am I. If you're going to make a vote, then explain it. Whether the reasoning is good or poor, there should always be at least some explanation. It doesn't take long to write a sentence or two.

This vote seems pretty good.

Brinn: For reasons stated in my post above:

++Sally

Bah, I feel like I should be bringing forth a competing candidate, but there actually really is no one else I suspect all that much. I've spent longer than I should on WW, and after all that then I haven't even begun to thoroughly examine any players thoroughly.

This makes me feel strange as if she hates voting her packmate... The day before she didn't want to bandwagon an innocent not too worried about doing it with a wolf... interesting.

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

This seems good... I feel I'm trying to see something not there... So Brinn is still in my eyes innocent looking one more vote to check out though.

Okay, I'm supposed to be doing schoolwork now, so in order to prevent distracting myself, I'm voting now. There's really no need for me to hold off anyway since I've already made my decision:

++Nogrod

So far we're on a streak lynching a cobbler and two wolves in three Days. No innocent has yet to be lynched. I'm hoping to keep it that way. Honestly, it would really surprise me if Nogrod does turn out innocent...there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt.

I think Brinn's votes are clean... She reasons them well with her other posts never does she make it seem wolf on wolf or anything... The Sally vote is the only one even slightly strange... but I think Brinn's good.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so if I were to think based on the voting list:

Winty would give some Wolf-on-Wolf votes, but as far as I remember, it was more or less at the phase when lot of it was decided (although at one point I recall him voting either right before or after me, I think it was even before, so that would sort of indicate for his innocence at that time, as it was by the time that the person did not have too many votes yet and WW was basically giving a sort of decisive, or a "now it's real and strong bandwaggon"-type vote).

Lommy is innocent basically 100% for me. There's no way she would have acted like that as a Wolf.

Morsul: hard to say, but given the fact that he's been voting early... wouldn't it be a bit counterproductive esp. when it comes to voting Sally and Glirdan? I don't think (with all due respect ) that Morsul is so bold to vote two of his packmates out, especially given that Nogrod was certainly not as bold. By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons. I think I am going to recheck him, and what he said about Nog, and vice versa, etc...

Shasta... could be something similar, also quite a lot of these "throwaway" votes.

Brinn, if she's a Wolf, would have a really Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least from Day 2 (3? Have to check if she voted Sally when there was mainly her or Glirdan already, or when there was still yet a chance to start a bandwaggon for somebody else - or on the other hand, if she didn't vote Sally when it YET didn't look like she would be necessarily voted by many at all).

Nerwen... well, that'd be basically the same as above.

Mira: ahem... okay. If she's the Wolf, I hope she is going to be modfired. As that'd certainly not be fair for all of us to lynch each other and then find out that it was her all the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Trying to boss me around, eh?

No I'm just trying to come up with a way to make myself feel better in case you turn out to be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair?

Possibly not. And no, but whatever her role, it isn't exactly fair to anyone that she doesn't post (yes Mira I know you have some RL stuff but that doesn't serve as an excuse throughout the whole game); not to the innocents if she's a wolf, and not to the wolf if she's eg. a gifted. And that's why modfire exists.

Originally Posted by Lommy

the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog

The first wolf vote, you mean? In any case we don't know Mira's & Morsul's roles.

Originally Posted by Legz

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

If you thought my theory about Nog slipping his furry thoughts about the urgency of finding the cursed might be true after all, then I don't need it explained. If you thought the said theory might not be true, then I do.

Okay now I'm going to analyse Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

So, I have already talked about the way I didn't like Skip on Day 3, specifically his sheer persistence in defending Glirdan– and that was before we knew Glirdan was a wolf.

Here he is on the other two Days a wolf got lynched:

Skip, Day 2

#235. Asks why Lottie is now a known innocent.


#257
Finds Agan suspicious for making such a big deal about dumping retractables.


#268

Originally Posted by Skip

The wolves know the identity of the cobbler, right?

#270

Originally Posted by Skip

But does the cobbler know the identity of the wolves? I'm having problem figuring out the role Fea would try to play.

Comments: Those two posts could equally be either honest questions, or a wolf playing the newbie card– no way of telling.


#274
Find Glirdan and Nienna suspect for their Day One votes having apparently worked out for himself that throwaways aren't a good thing:

Originally Posted by Skip

Ok so from the wolves' perspective it did not matter if Fea or Lottie was lynched? They wouldn't care either way, it's all good.

So any wolf yet to vote would probably keep a low profile when it looked like either one of those two would die, you know act wishy-washy, and then come up with some half-decent explanation to vote for any random person

.


#400. "I'm here" post.


#423.

Originally Posted by Skip

So what's the current vote tally? Sally's dying, isn't she?

(is having trouble making any sense of the proceedings)

To which Sally responded:
#425.

Originally Posted by Sally

So far, yes, but you can still prevent it.

#429. Casts third vote on Glirdan.

Originally Posted by Skip

Gotta go to bed. Haven't got the focus now to get a real grip of what's been happening, but I understand Sally's got her back against the wall. I've had no real suspicion against her but I can see how some would find her behaviour creepy. Would be interesting to find out her role - she might well be a wolf but she would not be my first choice to vote for. Glirdan I've had a slight suspicion on since day one and although I've no clear picture of exactly what he's been up to tonight, at least he's not reassured me. So, in order to open up another alternative:

++Glirdan

General comments: The first part of the day, apart from his well-reasoned post at #274, Skip mostly just talks about the rules, while with both potential lynchees being wolves, it's hard to deduce all that much from the fact that he voted Glirdan over Sally. However, if in fact Skip is a wolf he'd have had to choose one or the other (or make a throwaway, which he'd earlier denounced) and he might have decided Sally was more valuable to the team. At that point, there were still several people left to vote, Izzy (#426) had said she would probably vote Glirdan, and Sally herself had more-or-less directly asked Skip to save her. Of course this last might just as easily be Sallywolf's attempt to implicate an innocent Skip.



Skip, Day 4.

#584

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.

Comments: ??? Seems to rest on an over-literal interpretation.


#621

Originally Posted by Skip

.
Yes, killing Greenie was a surprising decision (and I'll miss having her around). But what possible reason could the wolves have to believe she was the seer? From what I've gathered she was always perfectly ambiguous and vague about everyone, and tried her best to stay out of trouble. I was starting to suspect her as a wolf for these reasons. Could the wolves have felt that this was a reason to suspect her being the Seer, with the knowledge that she wasn't a wolf?

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.

Comments: At this point Nogwolf, and the likelihood that Greenie had been killed for her suspicion of him, had been much talked about... yet Skip seems weirdly oblivious to this. If it wasn't for his quoting somebody-or-other, I'd think he hadn't read the thread.


#628
Post about Morsul. Raises some good points against him, but also continues that same strange accusation from #584. Think Shasta and Morsul might be the remaining wolves.


#635. Casts second vote on Shasta.

Originally Posted by Skip

Nogrod is starting to worry me too but I've not really kept up to date with the reading and just why he's suspected. Because Greenie the Seer's vote for him, is it not? It would be remarkable if we (though I can't claim any credit) could lynch a wolf three consecutive nights. Don't know if Nogrod is one but things are beginning to bad for him methinks. How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

But I will not be the one to try to fit the noose around his neck or lack of. The most honest option for me is Shasta, who I've sort of suspected since early on. I could go for Morsul too but don't see that happening now.

++Shasta

*is off to sleep*

Comments: And Nogrod had only two votes at this point...

General Comments: Looks like he might have been trying to save Nogrod that Day, doesn't it?


Conclusions: Might be furry. Might also just be a very individualist new player who prefers to form his own judgements. However, it's enough that I'd consider voting him, anyway.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That's quite a jump, Legate. It depends on who this last wolf is.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

And then there was that fellow... now what was his name? Something to do with diplomacy... Ambassador? Envoy? Emissary? Something like that.

By the way, I hadn't read this bit when I called Skip "individualist":

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons.

Just saying that, because there's been a bit of a thing this game about people using the same wording.

[Morsul the Dark]

seems to me Shasta and Skip are the two most suspicious at this point...

[Nerwen]

Well, at the moment, I think it's a choice of Brinn, Morsul or Skip, though I don't think any of them look terribly bad. But I don't have time to look at anyone else now. Brinn seems the least likely, Morsul I can't make head nor tail of, which leaves

++skip spence.

Seemingly, he did try to help at least two of the known wolves out, and maybe all three. That might mean something.

I'll try to get back later.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

[Mirandir]

I'm here, and apologize for my epic lack of posting these past few days. RL just hit the fan. Hopefully since I'll be with Nienna in a couple hours I'll actually be able to post and be around toDay.

In the meantime, I've been trying to figure out what Morsul is trying to accomplish by voting for himself. Yes, it makes sense if he is innocent to want to get rid of suspicion on him to focus on a wolf. However, if he is indeed innocent he's only hurting the village by encouraging us to kill him and give the wolves a leg up. If the cobbler wasn't already dead, he'd be my main suspect.

If he is a wolf, though, voting for himself to make it look like he has nothing to lose is something of an intelligent strategy. However, it casts a lot of suspicion on his actions in general.

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.

[Morsul the Dark]

or there's a third plan I haven't unveiled

[Aganzir]

I underline questions that I'd like answered because that way they're easier to notice and more difficult to forget about.

**

DAY 1

Nerwen started day 1 with some banter with sally and suggested the motive behind Fea's vote should be discussed. Then she sort of nudged suspicion toward winty which I still find suspicious:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh* Now I suppose we have to decide whether this is innocent or guilty-looking. Would a wolfywolfy's* packmates have shown him the ropes on Night One, and told him not to do this? Or would they have left him in the dark in the hope that he'd look like a confused innocent? Or is he, in fact, innocent? You know, the usual.

It's just way too easy, even for a day 1 suspicion. It was a newbie's first post and Nerwen is suggesting it might be wolfish. She isn't really accusing him herself, rather just saying that we have to decide. So if winty was lynched and innocent she could have backed out beautifully.
When I questioned her about it (saying that older wolves usually tell cubs to be just as confused as they would without a pack guiding them), she sort of downplayed it by saying that wolf tactics tend to run in cycles. What does that comment actually mean and could you give some examples? Because I think some things that have been tested and found useful remain the same from game to game, one of them being that newbie wolves are encouraged to act like newbies. She also countered my accusation of her just looking for an easy lynch with:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And actually, that looks a lot more like an Aganwolf looking for an easy lynch. I remark on one of the few noteworthy things that had happened– and you call it suspicious? Why?

**

DAY 2

As a response to Brinn, she said she wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) either because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd (why were they odd?), but she also acknowledged she doesn't want to fall into the "one of them has to be a wolf" trap. We know Green was innocent and at least I'm feeling very good about Lommy and alright about Legate, but in any case, if Nerwen's a wolf, none of the Lottie-voters can be. So while saying that doesn't necessarily imply Nerwen is a wolf, it would be a very convenient thing for Nerwolf to drive forward.

In 254 Nerwen gathered quotes "expressing surprise or confusion where I just don't think it's warranted." She had one by sally (the rest were by Nienna, Lommy & me, all of whom (most likely) innocent):

Originally Posted by sally

what the heck happened at the end of the Day yesterDay? Don't get me wrong, yay dead cobbler, but a dead cobbler is not a dead wolf. Sally demands an....an expla.....explanat....some country.....

which she commented by asking what sally meant by "what the heck" and suggested there was a possible hint of wolfish chagrin there.
She added she didn't know how people could be surprised about Fea (who, I think, was acting in a rather Fea-like manner) being the cobbler, and that she was surprised anyone didn't see a connection between Boro & Lottie and figure out they were the Sheriffs.

She said she didn't know what to make of Zil's vote (for Mira, based on my suspicion of her), but thought his jumpiness was okay and Nog was taking a single remark totally out of context. She added Nog didn't look very good because of it but mitigated it, saying it was probably just a language problem.

Then she voted for sally whom she found the most suspicious at that point. She quoted a conversation between Shasta and sally about Morsul on day 1 and said sally looked like a wolf preparing to jump on an easy victim - or a packmate - and hastily going into damage control mode when her plan didn't work out. She ended her post with a back door:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I do mean to be back before DL, and will retract if Sally makes a sufficiently convincing case for her innocence, or if someone else starts looking worse.

**

DAY 3

Glirdan was suspected from the start of day 3, not the least because of sally's sudden turn on him. Nerwen marked sally's sudden change of tone in her last posts (when she urged Nienna to switch to Glirdan) and said

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think she'd been planning to do that all along– but she might have thought, "hey, since I'm going down, why not stage a 'desperate' last-second attack that will make my packmate look good?"

which, I think, looks a tad like Nerwen knew too much.
She also added:

There's a question of whether Sally honestly believed she had a chance of changing the outcome at that point (right on DL).

What does this comment have to do with anything?

Morsul suggested sally was planning to do a false seer-reveal, and Nerwen commented:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.

Which, in my opinion, is another post where it looks like Nerwen knew too much. Like, most others speculated on whether Glirdan and sally could've been fellows, but Nerwen just somehow, I don't know, seems to take it for granted.

Later she added that we shouldn't concentrate only on Glirdan (this comment could go either way), and after that made a post about sally & Glirdan's interaction. She reached the conclusion that Glirdan was possibly a wolf, but added some points that were against the theory of him and sally being wolves together (#1: Glirdan, who started suspecting sally more the more votes she got, might not have kept track of voting; #2: they two were the most likely lynch-candidates which could've given them a reason to suspect/want to kill the other; #3: Glirdan tends to go with the flow and might have been influenced by many people suspecting sally). This could go either way too, I suppose. While the Nerwolf I remember is happy to throw her fellows under the bus, I recall she's often done it a bit hesitantly; not voted for them unless it was really necessary - and I suppose it wasn't certain Glirdan would be lynched. But innocent Nerwen might have said that as well.

Nerwen sort of accused skip of "trying one approach after another to defend Glirdy," and it's somewhat suspicious because it happened before Glirdan's role was revealed and before that, Nerwen herself had expressed some doubt about Glirdan being evil. In her next post she agreed with Nog about always finding Glirdan's playing style suspicious regardless of his role and said that was why she had been hesitating about him, but voted for Glirdan at the end of the post. It was the last vote (six minutes before deadline) and by then Glirdan already had seven votes (or six as Nerwen crossed with Nienna's vote).

**

DAY 4

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)

I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.
Heck I can't put my finger on the comment any better, I just think there's something very wrong there.

She moves on to say that we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf but because she suspected Nog, who had also started to creep Nerwen herself out the day before, Nerwen found him worth looking at (that's day 1 only though). People had already started to suspect Nog before that. She concluded that only one of Nog's posts looked furry but because of his overall day 1 tone, she wouldn't be surprised if he was indeed a wolf. That would be quite a convenient way to treat a fellow wolf who was possibly under the risk of lynching.
Then she goes through his day 2. Her conclusion, again, doesn't say anything:

This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

It was only Nog's first post on day 4 (in which he already behaved like a cornered wolf) that Nerwen said she seriously considered voting for Nog. In her analysis of Nog's day 3, she said he didn't look half as bad as Glirdan when she analysed him but that he was leaning furry. I'm not sure if Nog was really acting so much more suspiciously on day 3 than he had on the earlier two, or if Nerwolf, after his posting on day 4, decided it was better for her to start suspecting him. How ever it was, there's a change of tone in Nerwen's last analysis post.

She voted for Nog "Because I think we have to know his role," but added:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'll skim the thread now, and if anyone else really jumps out I may switch.

which is the same she did with sally. Granted, she didn't vote on day 1 and on day 3, when Glirdan was lynched, her vote was the last, but when I talked about Nerwolf who's hesitant when voting her fellows, it was comments like that that I meant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Brinniel quotes one thing I said about Glirdan completely out of context, and then uses that to show I was against lynching him– ignoring everything else I said that Day.

Could you explain how it's out of context? Yeah it's not all you said about lynching Glirdy, but I think it sums it up well enough. And I agree with Brinn that you weren't exactly the most enthusiastic Glirdan-voter...

**

DAY 5

Nerwen suggests Nienna was killed just to eliminate a threat as she didn't go strongly after any living player, and adds that Morsul (who, she later agreed with Lottie, is most likely not furry but isn't doing himself any favours either; and after that said that he's more suspicious again because he's "grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied" him when he said he would've voted himself every day if he had been a wolf with sally) needs looking at and so does Brinn, and Legate (whom she hasn't paid much attention). Brinn looked mostly innocent to her on days 1 & 2 but Nerwen found her day 3 attitude towards lynching Glirdan suspicious, as well as the way Brinn "took her comment out of context." And on day 4 she doesn't think Brinn is behaving like a wolf as a baddie would probably monitor herself better than Brinn has (ie pay more attention to how her comments come across). Her conclusion:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

which could go either way, again. If Nerwen's a wolf, she isn't pushing Brinn too hard (and therefore might avoid being suspected by her in return) but if she ever needs a lynching candidate, she can pick Brinn easily after that. The way she's behaved today, it looks almost like she's storing up potential lynchees for future use...

Then she analyses skip and finds him mostly suspicious, saying he might have been trying to save Nog (something I don't think a fellow would've done), and that he might be furry or just a very individualist new player, but it's enough for Nerwen to vote for him. Didn't it play a part that Greenie called him the most innocent-looking?

**

Huh if I was as motivated to write essays as WW analyses, I'd have a lot more credits... *thinks of a paper that should've been this long but which she never finished*

Anyway I don't think Nerwen looks good, and at least I would take the chances and lynch her. I should probably have a look at Nog's interaction with her (or Nog's interaction with everybody, for that matter), but having sat and written this for a couple of hours, I don't really feel like it.

I'm taking a break now, will be back later.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he were innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

I admit I never strongly suspected Glirdan. The only thing I really had against him was Sally's accusations at the end of the Day which did look rather wolf-on-wolf. Along with hearing his defense, I would've loved to look at Glirdan more in depth, but Day 3 was my worst Day participation-wise. I didn't have any solid suspects at the time of voting, nor did I have time to look for any...I chose to vote Glirdan because I knew if he survived the Day, he would continue to bug me the following Days. Knowing his role would help enlighten us on other players, so I figured it was worth lynching him...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players.

Just to make it clear, when making my analysis posts, I am writing down my suspicions based solely on what I'm analysing. While someone may look incredibly guilty in voting for example, they could've done something else that makes them look extremely innocent. Which is why you might've interpreted it as flipping. My post with the list of players are my overall thoughts for the Day.

I'm sorry if you think I misrepresented you. Again, I am limited on time and am doing these analyses while at work (though my job requires little attention, I do have to stop periodically while in the middle of writing something), so I could of easily missed something, but that's how I read it. I realise I probably should've put you in the wishy-washy section (I was debating it at the time since you seemed to be somewhere in between the two)...when I say wishy-washy, I mean players who see both sides of the issue, but are vague or hesitant when it comes to stating their own opinion on the matter.

Onto other things...

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, I feel pretty certain that neither of the Shasta voters are wolves. It was fairly obvious from early on that Nogrod would most likely be lynched, so it would've been easier for the wolf to blend in with the large bandwagon than stick out. Someone mentioned that Nogrod would've been aware that he was in danger of getting lynched and instructed his mate to suspect him. Having been wolves with Nog several times, this sounds to me exactly like something he would do.

With Lottie not dead yet, I think it's most probable that the final wolf is seeking out the cursed. It makes sense...the odds are certainly not in his/her favour, and by turning a cursed, the chances for a wolf win would double. Someone (I think Lommy) suggested looking at Nienna's posts since it's less likely those who were suspected by her would kill her in fear of being hunted. I agree; now without any packmates left, the lone wolf should've been perfectly aware of the hunter and would try to avoid at all costs getting hunted since that would mean game over for the wolves.

Btw, good to see you posting, Mira. I actually texted Nienna telling her to remind you to vote toDay when she sees you, in case you weren't aware of the possible modfire.

[skip spence]

Is here, sort of, but also cooking, cleaning and doing laundry. Hope to be able to give this a bit more time later.

But briefly, voting for yourself like that Morsul is just... wrong.

And a vote on me. Have been half-expecting that for a while now and frankly I'm surprised it took so long. Will try to honour it by responding to some of Nerwen's points...

[Brinniel]

Okay, going through Nienna's posts was no help whatsoever. I didn't realise how little she posted yesterDay...

There's a lot of other things to analyse...yesterDay for one, and also Nogrod. I'm not going to do tons of analysing, but I can do a little bit. But right now I'm slightly hurting and could use a break from thinking about WW.

[Thinlómien]

My thoughts on the cases presented:

Nerwen vs Brinn
- what Nerwen posted actually made me more suspicious of Brinn, even though Nerwen herself reached the opposite conclusion
- however, looking at the vote tally makes it beggar belief that Brinn's a wolf (she's really not so evil that she could heartlessly vote her fellows Day after Day) and her latest post seems very innocent, so I'm leaning on considering her innocent

Nerwen vs Skip
- good points
- BUT I think Nerwen is trying to grasp at straws a bit - like Agan said, Greenie's comment on Skip should not be forgotten (even though we can't take it as proof for Skip's innocence)*. Not sure if that makes Nerwen guilty, desperate or careless.

Agan vs Nerwen
- again good points, very precise and concrete ones
- however, I again get the feeling of grasping at straws. Nerwen is very scary and I'd be tempted to vote her just to be safe, so I get the uncomfortable feeling Aganwolf is trying to abuse people's instinctive distrust of Nerwen. It's hard to explain, but the case is so good that it is suspicious. Not sure if that makes sense, but it doesn't have the innocent trademark of being unsure. But - since Legate missed my flip-flopping - I have to give credit Agan with making a good case whether it was with evil intentions or not.


*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?


edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Not worried about atm
Skip - likely seer dream, didn't vote Nog. (I know I said before I'm not sure what Agan said about possible Nog-instruction is likely, but I'm sort of leaning towards that, especially if the last wolf is a newbie like Skippy.)
Winty - can't just find myself suspecting him. Has bandwagoned on most wolves, but it might be just a newbie going with the flow - whatever his role. I should possibly pay more attention to him.
Morsul - leaning innocent with his self-vote (mostly the phrasing).
Legate - somehow how he explained his wishy-washyness made me feel better about him although I'm not sure if it was a good point. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the last wolf because I'm generally clueless about stuff, though. But still he's not the most urgent of my concerns at all.
Brinn - maybe too good track record to be guilty, especially combined with her last innocent-looking post. I have nagging suspicions against her but I'm starting to think that's just my instinctive suspicion of her and nothing worse this time.
Mira - not enough evidence to make me worried. Not judging her before I see more.

Worried about atm
Agan - would be such typical wolf-Agan to bring forwards points that make herself look worse in order to make herself look more innocent. To be honest the only wolf-vote being Nog on Day4 doesn't look good on her, nor does the pursuit of lynchable Inzil on the Days when Sally or Glirdy was in danger.
Nerwen - Agan brings some good points about her, and it is true she a) tends to throw fellows under the bus but might do it a little hesitantly and b) looks like she knows more than the rest of us.
Shasta - possibly the worst-seeming track record this far and I don't like him sort of slying under my radar all the time. (Lol just noticed the typo won't correct. )