Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Hmm something else Nogrod said that I thought I commented on, but for some reason it didn't show up and now I can't find it.

Basically it's when Nog said he feels guilty for not trying enough so far, and then basically getting a free pass, which funny enough I feel like I'm in the same boat. It's really eerie to not have anyone challenging me to do better, when I really have done nothing at all. Well, except wilwa who just did today and makes her look a better to me, but at this point, I've done no analysis on anyone, and absolutely nothing, so I'm more or less just playing randomly and un-Borolike. The fact that no one is directly calling me out on it is scary...well again excluding wilwa who just did today.

Ok then.... you have an hour and a half before deadline. Do something productive. K? thanks. If you are worried about playing well then analyze someone or ... something... please. But since you voted... I assume you are off?

[Brinniel]

I believe Nienna asked me why I found wilwa suspicious, so I've pulled up some quotes to better explain why I'm uneasy about her:

Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.

First mention of her suspicion of Legate, almost four hours after the Day begins. Considering she felt so strongly about his guilt, I wonder why she never even bothered to mention him in her earlier posts.

So I still think that there is no way the wolves would have given up that extra kill. Yes it messes with our heads, which I'm sure they enjoy, but it doesn't really benefit them in a solid way. So they want Legate dead? Well they could have just killed him toNight, they wouldn't of had to set him up for us to kill him. They could have gotten two innocents last Night, plus (statistically) we probably would have lynched another innocent toDay. It's so early in the game, and they are but 4 people hidden among 18 that there is no way they were soooo scared of getting lynched that they resorted to setting him up. I'm not at all convinced of that. They're ability to kill 2 at Night will only last for so long, since we will eventually get a wolf, and they know this. They wouldn't have given that up purely just to confuse us...we usually confuse ourselves fairly easily on our own nyway.

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

I don't really like this post. She spends a whole paragraph talking about how the wolves just wouldn't possibly skip a kill, but in the next paragraph she's like, oh but in case they did... And she says that lynching an innocent isn't too damaging to the village and even if there were two kills were made, we'd still probably end up lynching an innocent. Any lynching of an innocent is harmful to the village and who knows what would've happened if two kills were made instead, clearing Legate. Inziladun was the runner up with votes that Day, so maybe we could've lynched a wolf on Day 2 after all.

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

Confident of his guilt and eager to lynch.

I also seriously doubt that, if they did give up the extra kill, that they would ever do it a second time, that would just put them way to far behind.

Interesting that she says this considering the events of the next Night.

x'posted with Legate, so I got a little excited, we lost our seer so early of course I'm excited at the prospect of getting a wolf toDay, and not having to worry about double Night kills is a relief as well

Again, very eager. Any sort of excitement to lynch makes me uneasy, especially when that victim turns out innocent.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.

Starting to show a bit of doubt.

Every time I re-read everything Legate says he makes more and more sense to me. I see the merit that his ideas have. I don't think they're as likely as some other possibilities, but I do really respect the work he's put into them. I do however still think that lynching him would get us further along, if he's guilty (which I think is more probable) then that's awesome, if he happens to be innocent then it provides us with a better idea of what sort of wolves we're dealing with, and we can try to figure out who would have been more likely to agree/come up with such a risky bluff. I'm seeing that the latter is more possible then I originally thought it was, but I don't think it's as likely, so I'm willing to take the risk. Besides, if we did lynch someone else instead we would just be back to wondering what to do with Legate tomorrow (not to mention we could accidently kill another gifted), and we wouldn't really have accomplished to much regarding that subject. So it's our best bet really, despite the risk.

She starts to backtrack her confidence near the end of the Day admitting there's a possibility he's innocent, but shares reasons why we should lynch him anyway. There are some points here I do agree with, but it's the fact that she seemed soo confident not much earlier that makes me wary.

now, since I really don't see me changing my mind on that, even if I'm starting to get a bit uneasy about this, it still just seems the most logical choice. Will wait to cast my guard vote though for a bit.

At first she was excited to lynch Legate, and now she's uneasy? It was around this time some began to share the idea that if Legate turns out innocent, then it's probable that wilwa's a wolf. Knowing that Legate would be lynched and revealed innocent could've scared a wilwa wolf enough for her to change her behaviour and lose some confidence in hopes that it would make her look better.

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway. I think it's just something she automatically does in order to always give, what she thinks is, a good vote. Cause even when someone is innocent they may still do things in order to not look suspicious.

Her defense of Sally combined with Sally's behaviour at the end of yesterDay makes me wonder if they could be wolves together.

Anyway, good job everyone! I'll post all of Inzil's posts in a couple of minutes, cause I don't think there were too too many. Might give us some info.

I'm always wary of posts that say "good job" or "hurray" after lynching a wolf. It just feels fake to me.

hmm, Hakon surprised me. I mean I know that he's still fairly new at this, but he was participating so much more then usual it seemed logical that he must of had people helping him out.

Interesting that she says it seemed logical that Hakon would be a wolf considering she didn't even vote for him. If she found him so suspicious yesterDay, why did she vote McCaber instead?

[Brinniel]

I really hope Sally shows up toDay, as I'd like to hear an answer to my question earlier. Her behaviour at the end of yesterDay makes me a bit suspicious of her, but then again I could be misunderstanding something, so I'm not sure.

[Nogrod]

Heh, just realised that I basically (not counting Nessa that is) have 1/3 possibility to hit it right.

Okay. Pitchwife then...

Originally Posted by #403

Boro, although I found him looking good earlier and would much prefer still finding him so, is starting to worry me a little bit, now I look at him a little closer. Reasons:

* says Inzil feels wolfish quite early, for what seem to me very flimsy reasons;
* supports Mnemo's plan, though cautiously;
* says he can't see the wolves wasting a night-kill to frame somebody, and
* thinks McCaber needs watching for suggesting they might;
* concurs with Nog's suspicion of Lommy;
* suspects Kit (which persuaded myself at the time) and votes her;
* argues for lynching Legate, dismisses Legate's defense that he was framed (see above!), and votes him;
* hasn't said anything notable about the fact that Leg was indeed framed, and says Nog is still suspicious because of the one kill.

Taken all together, this looks somewhat creepy.

Well this is an interesting one... I really had to think about this a few times as I think I have kind of neglected what this actually says.

But in the end I must say that apart from the last dot there is no problem (and I'm not sure big one that is). I mean it looks like he suggests there is a contradiction where there isn't one. It's totally in line to think that the wolves wouldn't miss a kill and then suspect the guarded person the next Day. What else would you do with that premise? (So I'm pointing to the "(see above!)" -thing.)

Also I do wonder about the last sentence. Saying it "looks creepy" is a bit overdoing it in a wolvish fashion, especially as there really doesn't seem to be anything "creepy" in there. So the whole post looks like more fabricated than real.

Pitch managed to help lynching Kit and Legate while voting to guard Boro & me on Days 1 & 2 - and seeing that the wolves had the idea of trying to frame innocents in the beginning to divert our tactics and to try and lynch those protected he got it right with me - and thence possibly with Boro as well?

This is interesting as well... He discusses why he isn't suspected as yet in an sarcastic way pointing out all the faults he has made... okay, read yourselves:

Originally Posted by Pitch on #432

Indeed, I find this current lack of suspicion quite surprising myself. Can't somebody suspect me, please? I've got used to it by now. And I mean, look, I had quite a part in the NG-test discussion, I voted to lynch our Seer on Day 1 and another innocent yesterDay, I was part of the Nogrod Guardwagon, and now I start suspecting someone I voted to Guard earlier, while defending a heavily suspected Inzil, who in turn votes to Guard me! Surely a case can be made from that?

The interesting thing being that in the beginning he kind of admits his bad decisions he has done and in hindsight knows they were bad decisions, but then he moves to the future (and unknown if he would be a villager) - like he already knows his decisions are not good for the village; like he knows they are things that will cause harm to the village!

And he brought in some pretty heavy artillery to make a case for Inzil:

Originally Posted by #440

it just occurred to me this might be because he's an innocent with a secret role... ?Let's not repeat the mistake we made with Kit!

Quite a lot to "just suppose"...


Okay, I see people are posting and I need a cigarette so I'll stop for a moment. But as you see, I'm actually getting more uneasy with Pitch even if I only scanned a few pages...

[Nogrod]

Brinn: I'm not sure whether the Devil's advocate hasn't taken the better of you in your analysis on Wilwa in general (I mean the kind of "developement-story" with Legate might just be genuine reconsideration dawning on her and her trigger-happiness might be a personality-trait) but I think the last one you pointed out about Hakon is indeed worth looking at - and I think I need to see what they did last Evening with Sally as I don't right now remember it.

Okay, now spoiling my lungs for a minute...

[Nienna]

When Boro was making contributions: Note: edited for Smileys because apparently you can't have 18 in one post... who knew?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I's ready to do mysa part and be an attractive kill choice. I never knew wolves who would deny themselves nice, thick and crispy bacon. Mmm

Oh and I guess that means no one should waste their time trying to save me at night...Elles ont comprend? (If that is wrong, please don't correct me).

Tries to be wolf-bait. Interesting…

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nilp! Welcome back to this institution that you, yes you, have gotten me addicted to.

Inzil, sorry, it's happening again. I'm getting those wolf feelings about you...wouldn't mind if I voted for you today would ya?

Oh, and Nilp has an uncontrollable tendancy to want to lynch himself, just so you are made aware of that.

Bad feelings about Zil right from the start. Could be wolf-on wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh pig loins! All the suspicion you acquire every single time, has made you much more cool and calm. I should have expected it.

I wouldn't say that. Mnemo's has gotten several people talking about a subject, there's information there, now let's look through it. There are still too many quiet villagers, but hey there's been a lot of commenting on Mnemo's plan.

Since she was the originator, I don't see how proposing a controversial idea, while getting lots of comments on it makes someone suspicious. We've been given about as good as info as we can expect to get on Day 1, courtesy of Mnemo. Now look through it and interpret it, because it's not posts and posts about pigs, fools, and feminine wiles.

For the time being, I see Mnemo as kind of the aunt you want to keep at arm's length. She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now.

By the way, I wouldn't mind trying her plan once the wolves are down to 1 kill. Two kills complicates everything, and could really make a mess of things, but if one wolf be gone, well it may just be worth it. Maybe it's just me, but the fact is sometimes as a wolf you have to do some real crazy stuff to win, it's no cake walk that's for sure. I think at times we have to do the same, and try out something that seems a little "out there." It could fail stupendously, but it could give us a brilliant and worthy win.

Is glad Mnemo brought up her plan as it gives us something to talk about. He just isn’t willing to do it yet.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Haha, sorry that won't be happening this time around. The lazy bums will have to do the work themselves, as I will have to do for myself.

I'm getting to that soonish, but I will probably have to vote a few hours before the DL.

Not at all, merely pointing out I don't see why the plan would make Mnemo look suspicious, at first look. There are innocent intentions, and it's been well thought out. Plus the way she's defended it afterwards looks more innocent...it hasn't been a

"Hey lets get the seer to reveal and have us and the Ranger switch off proteting."

A loud "NO!" from the crowd.

Mnemo: "Oh, ok, guess I was wrong...so who's a wolf?"

She's thought it out and defended it quite well, and I don't agree with sally at all about it being cheap. Hey, we use the toys the mod-god gives us...If the wolves think it's cheap, they need to quit their whining and figure out how they want to beat it.

My only reservation is, as Kitanna said, it shouldn't absolve her. It's not like wolves can't come up with an apparently helpful, ingenius idea, only then to tell her packmates to mess it up.

Hmm interesting, but I would take it more as a fortunate circumstance if it just so happens we guard a wolf. I'm going to make my decision based on either someone I would not want to see killed, or someone who I think would force the wolves hand.

Like, say we could hope to protect one of the no-trail kills, to try and force the wolves to actually kill someone who will leave a trail back to them. How it stands now though, I think I'll go with option one today, because there be still too many no-trailers for the wolves to pick off.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Pitch

Defends Mnemo for her plan. Thinks that if we guard a wolf it will just be good luck and not to make decisions based on it.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So, Mnemo unveils her plan straight away, and has to adjust the original idea, because the Mayor said we can't Night guard the same person two nights in a row. That is how I understand the Ranger was brought into the situation.

Now lets just see what everyone's said about it...

wilwa in post 8:

which crossed with Mnemo's 7, where she brought up the ranger too. Two people who thought the same thing, something that wilwa pointed out and it appears now Mnemo didn't appreciate the comparison.

Kitanna's post 9

The quick dismissiveness of the post looks suspicious. I read it as "Ya, ok, whatever...but the wolves will find a way around it so no point in continuing.

Plus, it really wouldn't be difficult to organize. Seer reveals, we protect seer Night 1 (the ranger will know because who we Night guard is known) then Ranger takes seer next night. The risk is since everyone is not on the same page with the plan, it would be unwise to do it right away, for only chaos can ensue from innocents not being on the same page, add on top wolves trying to mess things up.

Kitanna in 13 too caught my attention

Ahh honourably trying to look out for the innocents best interest are we? Balderdash. I would happily be killed if it means the seer is not, and so should any other innocent. The seer is our best weapon, and if we can be assured that the seer is kept alive to get multiple dreams, it's worth the sacrifice.

And Inzil's 22 is why I said he was looking like a wolf to me again

He rather forcibly rejects the idea with what I read as a rhetorical question, but then says there is some sense to it if we give it serious thought. Then goes back to agree with Kitanna's and be just as dismissive as Kit.

Did you really think we would be foolish enough to just go full steam ahead with an unconventional plan and not talk it out before asking the seer to reveal?

I have to stop here, I thought I'd be able to cram everything in, in roughly 40 minutes, but can't. I'll finish with the rest of the reactions to Mnemo's plan, when I get back, and then vote.

Edit: crossed since sally's post 90

I think this might have been the beginnings of the Kit suspicion. He still thinks Zil is suspicious.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Continuing then...as a matter of aside, I really hate financial advising appointments. I mean really is it necessary to take hours to only learn you have no money?

Nienna in 28

This looks innocent, disagrees and notes the risk of it. Plus her other post today (#92) looks good too, I just wish Nienna would step out more. You've got a smart mind, have some confidence and trust it.

So we reach Legate in #33, I think this was before the post where Nogrod points to taking a moral high-ground. Others have already brought up that the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal, but I want to look at this (bold my emphasis)...

What? The seer is no real use unless xe catches wolves? When did the idea that the seer needs to do our work for us happen? Ok, maybe that's rhetorical because it is always nice when the seer says "here's your wolves people." But how often does that really happen?

Most of the wolf-lynchings that happen are done by our own work and sweat, and a sprinkle of good fortune. Any information a seer gives is valuable, whether the seer knows wolves or not. Known innocents may become a night target, but it also limits the unknown number, thus increasing our chances to lynch a wolf during the day. Sorry, saying the seer would be no use unless the seer has a wolf is just wrong.

Greenie in 36:

Possibly, but would you say a wolf would continue to defend the idea, and argue for it, even after many people expressed their disagreements with it?

And that's about all I feel like commenting on, or what hasn't been said/who hasn't been pointed out. For, I concur with Nogrod about Lommy objecting because it would be unfair to the wolves. Although, sally hints at the same thing, and I really don't find her suspicious. I just wish ye both would get out of your heads that we have to play nicely with the wolves. Of course there are always certain things off limit, as meta-gaming reasons, but look these are the weapons we've been given to work with...let's try to use them. Don't do the wolves work for them, let them figure out how they want to beat whatever plans we come up with.

Edit: crossed with Kit and on.

Thinks the seer’s info is just extra and that we have to work to catch the wolves on our own. He also thinks that we shouldn’t do the wolves work for them. Seems reasonable.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Funnily enough I may put in my lynch vote before my guard vote. It's almost like with a guard-vote my honor is at stake.

…interesting…

Originally Posted by Boromir88

[lynch vote]++Kitanna[/lynch vote]

Thought her reactions to Mnemo earlier in the day were suspicious, as well as her lynch-vote for Brinn. How is it that Brinn always seems to get herself in trouble...even when she actively tries to avoid it? Must be frustrating.

And I will guard

++Nienna

tonight.

He mentioned many times that he thought Zil wolf-like. He did mention some suspicion of Kit and I guess it outweighed his suspicion of Zil… or he would rather lynch an innocent than a pack mate…

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Unbelievable, the seer gone again in Day 1? This is a joke, isn't it? Hopefully one of the hidden roles was a seer.

I'd say it would be pretty stupid not to do it, but we shouldn't just vote and attend our other business. We have to make every day a productive day now.

I'm watching McCaber who pointed out the wolves may want to fake us out and only chose one kill, so we lynch the person we guarded the day before. Interesting theory, but most peculiar that McCaber points this out yesterday, Legate is guarded, and we awake with only one death.

For now too I feel good about Pitch who pointed out something in the rules that I overlooked. Usually that's a pretty good judge of someone's innocence, even though if wolves will read rules too, I doubt they would point out something like that which would only hurt them.

Good point about McCaber. Feels good about Pitch.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Good point. But it also works against your argument.

That's the point, there are other gifteds. The seer is the most dangerous threat to the wolves, but they shouldn't get cocky. There are other gifteds, and other secret roles, which can turn out to be known innocents too. Too many known innocents is as much of a threat to the wolves as the seer can be. Ask Nienna about it, despite lynching the seer on Day 1, having so many potential known innocents at the end nearly ruined them.

I can see the wolves trying it if they need one lynch for a victory, but there's a lot of villagers, and still a lot of threats to the wolves, even if the seer is dead. If they want to play games and waste kill chances be my guest. But pulling a trick, just to frame an innocent because they are feeling good about fortune on Day 1 makes little sense.


Relax. I said that very thing in my first post, but I'm tired, I have school and other things I'm busy with, allow me a bit more time.

Thinks wolves making a frame instead of a kill doesn’t make a lot of sense. This could be wolf with insider knowledge or … more likely… innocent not knowing

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And before I do my thorough read through:


You should note too that Inzil has been acting that way towards others, which is why I'm suspicious of him...

To me...


And to Hakon...

Yes he has Inzil, and what's the point if he hasn't?

Suspicious of Zil still…

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

I remember Mac in Brinn's last game after claiming (successfully) to be the Ranger, but still not dying that night passionately, and in some ways convincingly, argued that he was being set up as an easy lynch. Still didn't take away from the fact that it was a bogus defense because if he wasn't a wolf and declared he was the Ranger, the wolves would have killed him, but they didn't, ergo Mac had to be one of the wolves.

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

And now to other things

Thinks Legate is a wolf and that framing defense is the weakest.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I recall correctly, the NG was not the reason you were found suspicious yesterday.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

Guard.

++Nerwen

Me really likes her approach to everything so far.

I'm voting now because I may be able to rush back to my apartment and say a little more before the DL, but there's a good chance I won't be able to.

Votes Legate and guards Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

She won't, she's having serious laptop issues because of a nasty trojan and I don't think she'll be able to come back, which means it's up to the Mayor with what he wants to do.

I don't think so, it strikes me as a very sally thing to do. I don't know if it was really necessary to do it after every single vote, but I can tell you it was certainly nice as a mod to get the vote tallies as the DL was closing down, instead of scrolling through pages to gather all the votes while constantly checking the time and making sure the game closes on time.

Defends Sally

Originally Posted by Boromir88

A quick question about the NG votes, if one wolf goes, would one of the other 3 try to attract the NG vote or not? Something for us to mull over perhaps.

I didn't know you wanted to tango, or I may have been more willing. My apologies. Although, I may seem a bit off from my normal combativeness, that is mostly though due to other things. Like not originally intending to play in a game after modding one and being a bit exhausted this week.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Crossed with Noggers

But that behavior towards the end is not unusual to sally, whether wolf or not. So for now, I'm agreeing with Pitch, it's too flimsy and I'm not going to suspect her for that, when also considering the rest of her participation. It's not like she has been giving us updated vote tallies the entire time.

Still defending Sally

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Very short day for me today again...too much on my platter at the moment, but I will say...

Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.

I wonder if I can read through before I have to leave?

Oh and this is going to be a complete flip-flop from what I said about Nogrod, but I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1? That's all I got to offer right now, my apologies for bumming around.

Thinks that even though we know not to trust the NG we should still look at Nog.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Fair enough, for me I don't see the purpose because Eonwe has repeatedly said he's not giving any mod hints, maybe it was a slip, but why blow it up to that extent? Did you really expect something like "Yep, you got me, I made a slip."

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

NG Votes for Legate (Day 1):

Brinn
Nerwen
Shasta
Nogrod
Lommy
wilwa

(Italics be the dead innocents)

NG Votes for Nogrod (Day 2):

Greenie
Pitch
McCaber
wilwa
Nessa
Inzil
Hakon

That's interesting, the only repeated name is wilwa. I would also like to point out from Pitch on down to Hakon was just pretty much a large guard Nogrod wagon. With Legate there really wasn't a wagon, it was pretty split between guarding me or Legate.

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes. Or maybe that just means we have wolves who are trying to distance themselves from eachother and spread out? hmmm

Worried about Wilwa and how she keeps popping up in suspicious activity.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ahh, and I'll be away until 2 or 3-ish my time, so there best be some real good analysis that I can come back to.

And ye wolves were probably most unwise to leave me alive this long ha, I gave you the chance to kill me early when I was exhausted. Now the fire's been lit and it will be most difficult to lynch me, you'd be sure to regret it because it would be your end.

Hmmmm…..

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Yes, maybe something along the lines of a person who can cause the sun to rise, thus ending the wolves night activities early if said person picks a number 1-6 and it is the same number the Mayor has rolled. The Mayor is a gambler right? That would be awesome...mind you this is just my random speculation.

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye

Interesting thoughts on special roles

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night.

One little thing about Shasta that bothers me and I didn't get a chance to bring up, when he said this towards Legate.

I don't like those types of suspicions, because it relies on certain words people use, and we all have common words or phrases we recycle. Just because we say I'd like to "see" more from this person or "watch" them doesn't mean we are saying "Hi. Im the seer!" Legate's usage of "us innocents" or identifying with the innocents shouldn't point to any one's wolvery or not, it's a very common thing to say in this game.

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)...but suspecting Legate in the way Shasta did, pointing out a common phrase many of us use looks bad. So, Shasta, whatcha got to say for yourself?

Doesn’t think the wolves would want to guard themselves even though we can no longer trust the NG results. He thinks they would want to be able to plot with each other. Suspicious of Shasta.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now. This read maybe the best I ever get on her, and I'm feeling innocent...if not congrats Nerwen.

She's already made this point about Inzil, but you can say the same thing with Kitanna too. There was no indication that when Nerwen voted Kitanna was going to be lynched. If Kitanna felt she was in big danger of getting lynched, she would have revealed...she wouldn't have liked it, but she would have had to reveal.

Since it was Day 1, you could argue my 2nd vote made her a viable lynch option...fine. But take note that I was after Kitanna from the get go and any of the reasons against her were people bandwagoning onto my susicions. And that bandwagon really started against her once she left and Inzil hopped onto my suspicions.

I also think Pitch looks better than wilwa because even though wilwa could argue she was merely trying to save herself, she's also done a bang up job at being involved in the other wagons. Add on top of that Pitch's post where he says people should take a look at me (that of which I am much appreciated for because it made me aware of how crappy I've been playing and I need to get my rear in gear), but suddenly when I announce my suspicions on wilwa, she fires back latching onto Pitch's points suddenly saying the "re-reading" of my posts gave her a different feeling.

Defending Nerwen, thinks Pitch looks better than Wilwa.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Snappy, yes, because I'm finding out I'm having only about 2 hours a day, total to be on read everything and then post. The way I normally like to do things hasn't been possible.

But, I'm not sure how I have been "sniffing the mood." I've said my suspicions are Shasta and Wilwa, and I said why. Plus currently Nog, Pitch, and Nerwen look innocent. The rest I'm unsure, because I really haven't given much thought towards them. How is announcing suspicions and the ones I feel innocent about "sniffing the mood?" I thought that was the purpose of this thing.

[lynch vote]++wilwa[/lynch vote]

because I said so...and

++Guard Nilp

also, because I said so.

Votes for Wilwa to lynch and Nilp to guard. He also defends himself.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

11 people left, 3 are wolves and I would be the rest of my savings that wilwa is one of them.

Still after Wilwa.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Hmm something else Nogrod said that I thought I commented on, but for some reason it didn't show up and now I can't find it.

Basically it's when Nog said he feels guilty for not trying enough so far, and then basically getting a free pass, which funny enough I feel like I'm in the same boat. It's really eerie to not have anyone challenging me to do better, when I really have done nothing at all. Well, except wilwa who just did today and makes her look a better to me, but at this point, I've done no analysis on anyone, and absolutely nothing, so I'm more or less just playing randomly and un-Borolike. The fact that no one is directly calling me out on it is scary...well again excluding wilwa who just did today.

I’ve commented on this already.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

[lynch vote]++Pitchwife[/lynch vote]

No particular reason at all other than I feel uncomfortable about his post on Day 2 that laid out reasons to suspect me. It made me feel he was innocent, but then Inzil chose to quote Pitch and defend me. Maybe 2-wolves working together, and Pitch was defensive of Inzil.

Now Inzil did vote to guard Pitch, but that was the 1st vote for Pitch and it was a 3-way tie with Shasta and Nerwen. I mean on that day it only took 3 votes.

This unsettles me. His very first post of the day and he says he would bet all his money that Wilwa is a wolf. He doesn’t post anything of substance and then he votes for someone different. Creepy.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

++Guard Nogrod

Trust him more than anyone else at this point, or maybe just have a more solid read on/ability to read than the rest.

So I don’t think I’ve formed a conclusive enough opinion of Boro but he looks a little fishy. Right now I don’t know if that fishy-ness if wolvery but it is still something to keep our eyes on.

[Nienna]

With only a 1/2 hour to go:

Lynch:
Wilwa--> McCaber
Nilp--> McCaber (2)
McCaber--> Pitchwife
Greenie--> Sally
Boro--> Pitchwife (2)

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally

Guard:
Wilwa--> Greenie
Nilp--> Boro
McCaber--> Nilp
Greenie--> Nienna
--Greenie-- Nienna
Greenie --> Wilwa
Boro--> Nog

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally

[Nogrod]

Brinn, what was your point on Sally and Wilwa at the end of yesterDay?

Sally made a lot of work to show how suspicious Hakon was and he turned out innocent. Sure.

They both voted to guard Nienna - as did Nerwen...

But looking at the yesterDay evening I'd say that Nienna was in the middle of the affairs as well.

Originally Posted by Nienna #540

I'm leaning toward voting Hakon or McCaber to lynch... I'm hesitant to jump on a bandwagon but they really are acting suspicious.

Wilwa, Sally, and Nog seem alright to me.

Originally Posted by Nienna #551

I do not like Hakon's vote for Wilwa and I actually don't know where this suspicion is coming from. I'd rather see Hakon lynched.

++ Hakon

and

++Guard Sally

because she is making a whole lot of sense.

Edit: x-ed with Brinn... bah. I don't know if I like that vote for Wilwa either...

[satansaloser2005]

Here, at least mostly.

Originally Posted by Brinniekins hehe

About the end of yesterDay, Sally, I still don't understand why you dislike my vote for wilwa so much. I felt practically attacked for a vote I thought perfectly reasonable; I don't see what's wrong in voting for the one you suspect the most. So if you didn't want to save wilwa why were you so upset with me voting her? Did you want me to vote Hakon or McCaber instead? I was still uncertain about Hakon and uncomfortable with that bandwagon against him, and I didn't suspect McCaber as much. So why should I have voted them over wilwa?

It's late so I really don't have time for much posting tonight, but I'll be around when I get up tomorrow.

It just looked weird to me. It wasn't that so much as you trying to wind me up afterward that made me suspect you. That and of course I was afraid we'd end up at a tie, which would have made me quite angry.


Oooo look! A vote count! I'm so glad- Oi, that's my job!

*finishes catching up*

[Nienna]

Nog: I thought that post pretty self-explanatory. At the time I didn't really know where her suspicion of Wilwa was coming from. Today I have asked and found out so am now feeling better about Brinn and worse about Wilwa.

[Nogrod]

Two more I ran across with while looking at yesterDay's last hours...

Originally Posted by Pitchie #529

Direct answer to Nog about my Shasta Guard vote:
In addition to what I said earlier toDay: OK, maybe he wasn't a very likely wolf target - but then again, you never know; anyway, I felt it was time to use the NG as it was meant to - i.e. to keep alive somebody we feel is innocent, not to test and safeguard people we have second thoughts about (as I had about Nerwen at the time). And unlike you, I like to keep those who haven't said that much around and give them a chance to improve.

Like I said yesterDay: why would you choose someone who does not play? That's playing to the hands of the wolves! And the same question goes to Sally as well!

Bolding mine in the next one...

Originally Posted by Pitchie #534

What I'm saying is, The Plan was so good I thought everybody could see it was good, so everybody arguing against it would make themselves suspicious. Hence the wolves - at least some of them - might have found themselves driven to support it, although The Plan itself was bad for them, to make themselves look good. Whether I was right assuming so is another question, but that is what I meant.

But I can't see you backing the plan too forcefully back then... It didn't look like you tried to sway the rest of the village to see it's good sides on Day1...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like I said yesterDay: why would you choose someone who does not play? That's playing to the hands of the wolves! And the same question goes to Sally as well!

Heh. 'Cause I'm dumb and forgot that Shasta hadn't been around. Who doesn't want to keep the village psychic?


Finishing a list. Back in like a second.

[satansaloser2005]

I know it's a bit late in the game to be voting on feelings, but I don't have time to look through all the posts. I'm considering....a Wilwa lynch? (The thing is I don't know if it's me who came up with this in my head or if I'm just subconsciously going along with the discussion of Wilwa toDay. Maybe I'll look at her toNight and hope to be around to take care of her tomorrow. I've not decided yet.


Suspicious:
Cabbie (for reasons previously stated)
Boro (because I keep forgetting he's playing)
Wilwa (general furriness radiating from her, but I need to look at her closer)
Nessa (although this is a moot point....a quiet Nessa is an evil Nessa, but this is different)


In the middle:
Greenie (can't get a read on her)
Pitchie (looks rather suspicious but can't bring myself to vote him for some reason)
Brinn (just for the end of yesterDay....I'm not prepared to vote her, but I want to keep an eye on her)
Nilp (again, keep forgetting he's playing, even though he's not been lurking much)


Innocent:
Sally (duh!)
Nienna
Nog

[Nogrod]

So what should it be?

If we miss we'd better miss with McCaber as he doesn't contribute too much and the less there are people around the more we need to be able to read from each other.

But I think I could be ready to vote for Pitchwife as well. I know analysing people and looking whether they could be wolvish tends to make one see lupinity everywhere and I might be blinded by my search on him.

Any others people would like to bring forwards gathering three votes (to surpass the two aforementioned)?


EDIT: X'd with Sally x2

[Nienna]

I'd be game for last minute Wilwa lynch. She has just been a little off and looking at others opinions of her I think the same... I'm not entirely comfortable voting for Pitchwife or McCaber right now...

[Nogrod]

Now how many of you are just lurking around and watching how this goes?

If you are just looking on, then the probability that you are wolves is high enough and thence our top candidates might be innocent as you don't feel like intervening?

[satansaloser2005]

Lynch:
Wilwa--> McCaber
Nilp--> McCaber (2)
McCaber--> Pitchwife
Greenie--> Sally
Boro--> Pitchwife (2)

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally

Guard:
Wilwa--> Greenie
Nilp--> Boro
McCaber--> Nilp
Greenie--> Nienna
--Greenie-- Nienna
Greenie --> Wilwa
Boro--> Nog

Still to vote: Brinn, Nessa, Nienna, Nog, Pitchwife, and Sally


Jacked this from Nienna in order to comment on the options.

Lynching:
Cabbie: find him really darn suspicious....I'd hate to be wrong two Days in a row though
Pitch: flip flopping on him, so I'm not sure I want to kill him right now....maybe toMorrow
Sally: Erm....right....


Guard:
Greenie: not sure if I trust her, but I suppose if she's a baddie at least she'll be kept away from her maties
Boro: suspicious of him based on....erm, nothing really, but I doubt he'd be the Night kill anyway (Now that I say that, of course....)
Nilp: I could go with this....I'd like to see some more from my prince yet
Wilwa: Meh.
Nog: Possible. He's good to keep around....and besides, if he's evil....

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Brinn, what was your point on Sally and Wilwa at the end of yesterDay?

It's just that she very plainly stated she really disliked my vote and if it wasn't because she thought wilwa innocent, I couldn't really understand why. She was listed as one of my suspects in the post before, so I don't think it came out of nowhere.

Originally Posted by Sally

It just looked weird to me. It wasn't that so much as you trying to wind me up afterward that made me suspect you. That and of course I was afraid we'd end up at a tie, which would have made me quite angry.

As I recall, there were still others left to vote, so I don't see how my vote would've made it a tie. In fact, I pulled wilwa in the lead; she was tied with Hakon before my vote. And I wasn't trying to wind you up; I was just trying to figure out why you didn't like me voting wilwa.

[Nogrod]

Brinn & Pitch?

EDIT: Haa, there you are Brinn... good.

[Brinniel]

wilwa's an obvious candidate for me. She's been my prime suspect all of toDay.

[Nienna]

*Points toward the admin thread for Nog about Pitch*

[Brinniel]

++wilwa

Guard:

++Boro

[Nienna]

++ Wilwa

++ Guard Nog

X-ed with Brinn

[Nogrod]

Thanks Nienna...

So you all are for Wilwa, right?

I can see why she looks suspicious and you might be right about it. I just haven't actually read her more closely and feel insecure for that reason...

EDIT: X'd wirth the votes...

[Brinniel]

Reason for guarding Boro: He seems honest and I think a wolfish him would try to be more active. He's valuable to the village even if he's not as active, so I'd hate to seem him killed.

[Nogrod]

I'll take my responsibility then as well

++ Wilwa


and

++ guard Boro

[Nogrod]

Let Pitchie defend himself toMorrow...

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Wilwarin is dead. Nogrod will be Night Guarded. Nessa will be modfired in the Night.

[satansaloser2005]

So I've been trying to put this in for over five minutes, but my internet kept hiccuping. Rubbish. (At least it's clear how I [would have] voted.)


++Wilwa

++Guard Nog


EDIT: x'd with Steve

[Eönwë]

The people were beginning to lose their original enthusiasm for finding and killing the wolves. Not everyone present spoke ore voted that Day.

It was only Nienna who spoke a lot that Day, and she recalled everything that was said by those that she found suspicious. Everyone chose who they thought was suspicious, but suddenly, at the end of the day, Brinniel cried out "Let's kill Wilwa!"
"Yes!" shouted Nienna.
"I agree" assented Nogrod.

And soon it was decided that Wilwarin would be the one to be killed.

"Let's use the gallows!" announced Eönwë. "We haven't had a good hanging in over half a week."

And so the village decided that a hanging was the best option, and took Wilwa to the gallows.

But as the executioner put the noose around her neck, she shouted, "No! No! Stop this! I'm your hunter! I'm the only one who has a chance of catching your wolves."

She took out a bow. It was made of a strange wood that none of the village had ever seen, and shimmered in the evening light. "This bow was given to me by Formendacil the Brave. In secret, he spent many years teaching me how to hunt evil beasts, knowing that we would need someone possessing this knowledge in the future of the village."

She took out an arrow from a seemingly concealed quiver. "I have chosen who I believe to be the wolf. I am correct then this will plunge straight into their heart and kill them instantly.

She fitted the arrow onto the string, and drew the string back as far as she could. She aimed her bow, was ready. She released the bow, and the arrow sped forwards at an impossible speed. But it stopped at two arm's lengths away, and caught fire. Within seconds, it had turned to ashes, which fell to the ground.

"I was wrong this time, but please give me another chance! I will be able to find the real wolves in no time, now that there are less of us here. Please let me have my freedom!" pleaded Wilwarin the Hunter.

"Let her have it!" shouted Eönwë

The executioner removed the support. Wilwa's eyes opened in shock and panic. Luckily for her, this one was quick, and she immediately slumped forwards, limp and lifeless.

"Nooo!" cried Eönwë. "I meant for you to give her her freedom, not kill her! How could you!"

Most of the watching villagers suddenly took a step back, aghast at what had just happened.

Wilwa's great bow fell from her lifeless hands, and clattered on the floor. It was examined, and was indeed made of some wood unknown to those parts. It had, inscribed upon it, many strange letters and symbols that none could understand. It was indeed a magical bow. They had just killed their hunter, and to no avail.

Now the guards took their place outside the house of Boro, waiting for the night to come.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary - Innocent (modfired)
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel - Innocent
wilwarin538- the village barmaid - Hunter

[Eönwë]

'Twas a dark night in Upper Downsbury. Eönwë was filled with restlessness, and could not sleep for the entire night. He sensed that something bad was about to happen.

Three silent shadows swept across the deserted streets of the village. The people of the village had switched their lights off, and darkness reigned supreme. It was a starless night, and if any villager had been outside, they would have been able to see nothing, save for a blacker heart of darkness within the darkness. With each day they grew stronger, and the dread that had on the first night only enveloped them now grew and lay upon the entire village like a shroud of death.

As well as their power, their confidence had also grown. Whereas before they had crept in the shadows and the corners, now the strolled down the streets, back straight and shoulders and head held high in foul grimaces.

It was a cold night, and their breath steamed, but it was barely visible in the darkness. They walked on, their feet leaving no imprint upon the ground. The only thing that a human observer would have seen would have been the red eyes that burned with the hatred of the fires of Angband. But any who would have beheld them would have been filled with an uncontrollable terror for the short time that marked the end of their lives. The large torches that served as street lights at night extinguished themselves as the Werewolves walked past.

They were almost in control now, it would only take two more days, and they would overrun the village and its inhabitants, raze its buildings and tear the inhabitants to pieces.

And then the reason for the starless night became clear. A flash of lightning in the distance pierced the night.

They reached the house of their choice. This was the most luxurious house in the small village, almost twice as large as any other. As they reached forward to open the door, it was opened before them, and in front of them stood a man, clothed in fine armour, sword in hand. Nogrod looked at them fiercely.

"You will not kill me, as you have done to the others!" he declared defiantly.

Lightning flashed again, this time nearer, and the thunder came, a deep rumble.

A strange sound was released by the wolves, a terrible sound, which Nogrod could only assume was laughing. He stood, bolder than ever, staring the evil right in the face. He would not falter.

And then one of the wolves stepped forward. It brought its head down to Nogrod's height, and let out a roar. This was no ordinary roar. The roar could be heard across the entire village, waking up most people. A baby could be heard crying the distance. The sheer power of the roar, with the wolf's thick saliva dripping through its teeth, almost knocked Nogrod off his feet, and forced him to take a step back, his head pounding, his ears deaf.

But the wolf spoke straight into his mind. Now, old man, you will taste the bitterness of death.

"I will not be killed in this way" bellowed Nogrod.

Lightning split the sky, directly above them this time. The thunder cracked like the whip of Morgoth and the landscape was lit in the blazing light for an instant.

But Nogrod's valiant efforts were in vain. The wolf stepped forwards and bit upon Nogrod's helmet. The teeth punctured and bend the metal as if it were clay. Nogrod stood no chance against such an evil. The creature of darkness bit hard, and ripped Nogrod's head from its body.

The body was eaten, but the head kept for a very special purpose.

And then the rain started, heavier than had ever been seen before in that land, streaming down in torrents, going down from the rooftops onto the streets, and washing away the blood from Nogrod's doorstep.
---

The Werewolves walked back together. The rain had abated slightly, but the icy droplets still fell. But the wolves didn't care. They had just destroyed one of their greatest enemies, and knew that they were in a good position.

As they passed a house, they saw Nessa walk out of her door, and plunge a long dagger into herself.

"See, they're doing our job for us," said one of the wolves.

The two others chuckled hellishly, and feasted upon her flesh.

---

Morning broke upon the village, and a bloody sunrise greeted the townspeople. The air was fresh and clean, yet it could be told that foul deeds had been committed that night.

And as the villagers assembled in the square, the extent of the night's evil became clear.

Standing in the centre of the village square, was the severed head of Nogrod, cloven from its body. The blood had been mixed with the rain, and there was a large reddish-puddle around it. This was the grisly scene that all who assembled that morning beheld.

Eönwë addressed the village. "So, we have lost Nogrod," he said solemnly. The people nodded, trying hard, but failing to ignore the terrible sight in front of them.

"And I see also that Nessa is missing. This is terrible news, terrible news indeed."

The people looked at their mayor, waiting to see the cause of his despair.

"This means that we only outnumber the beasts by two."

The crowd gasped in realisation.

"What it means for us is that we must catch a wolf today, or we are all going to die."

A mass-panic hit the village. People were shouting and screaming. Eönwë called for quiet. "Silence! Silence!" he said. "We must have peace today. For today we shall make the most important decision of our lives."

And so the discussion began.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary - Innocent (modfired)
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel - Innocent
wilwarin538- the village barmaid - Hunter
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress - Innocent (modfired)
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois - Innocent

[Nienna]

*Bangs head against wall*

I take full responsibility for Wilwa's death. I'm terribly sorry... I was worried about another Hakon-like lynch with McCaber and Brinn and Boro had made some good points against Wilwa... I totally second guessed myself and that sucks.

A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
McCaber
Nienna
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
satansaloser2005

In this list are 3 wolves. We need to lynch one today or we are pretty much doomed.

I'm thinking there is a wolf in either McCaber or Pitchwife and the other two between Nilp, Greenie, and Brinn.

*Wonders if there will be people posting today*

I'm also thinking of taking the I will lynch-vote you if you have less than 10 posts today because it is crucial to have everyone making a contribution so the wolves can slip and so that the innocents can work together. If you aren't contributing (unless you have serious RL issues) then you don't deserve your win. [/emo-rant]

[Boromir88]

Nienna now you know why I backed away wilwa.

I read this post as a hint to some sort of giftedness, and tried to back off without making it look too suspicious, or apparent that I thought she was a gifted. The wilwa lynch had to be wolf driven, and good news is tomorrow I have absolutely nothing to do (besides work for a few hours in the morning).

So, after the start of the NFL season today, I shall return.

[Brinniel]

Urgh, this is really frustrating. I'm feeling quite stunned as I was so sure this time wilwa was a baddie and now I find I was wrong...gah, I'm very confused now. Obviously I need to go back and re-examine everyone; toDay we can't take anything for granted.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'm also thinking of taking the I will lynch-vote you if you have less than 10 posts today because it is crucial to have everyone making a contribution so the wolves can slip and so that the innocents can work together. If you aren't contributing (unless you have serious RL issues) then you don't deserve your win. [/emo-rant]

I do agree it's annoying to have players who don't contribute much, but I hope you don't take that route and vote for someone just because they don't post much. We can't afford to risk that toDay as we won't know whether someone isn't posting due to RL issues or because they are just lurking. Contribution is a factor, but voting based on suspicious behaviour is even more important.

[satansaloser2005]

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)


Well, people, we more or less have to get this right toDay. Our ranger is out and about, but there's no guarantee that she'll get the save right. Heaven knows she's not gotten one right yet. But enough self-deprication and demotivation. Let's discuss!

*runs off to make a vote tally of DOOM to analyze*

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)

Good morning to you, too.

Well, I should be around for most of the Day for once, so that's a good thing. And since we've got the preliminary "three of us are wolves" posts out of the way, I can get straight to business. wilwa either aimed at Boro and he was guarded (probably not, but I had to say it), or at an innocent. I should go through her posts yesterDay and see if anyone can tell who was Hunted, because there's probably a hint or two in there.

But hey, I'm not dead yet, so that's another good thing. Woo.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Good morning to you, too.

*hugs you*

Sorry, but you must understand. Besides, it's not like I'm writing a petition to hang you up by your toes, cover you in hot sauce, and tell Phantom you're a very large hot wing.

....

....

....

Yet.


*toddles off to do vote stuff*

[Nienna]

Nilp: Edited for Smiles... again.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hammers and pebbles.
Some baubles for a penny.
Won't you vote for me?

[lynch vote]++Nilpaurion Felagund[/lynch vote]

Self vote… typical Nilp I do believe.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

The one who protects
No need to reveal himself.
A fish in the sea,
Unless the sharks are lucky,
In our numbers he'll be safe.

Against ranger revealing.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me.

This is interesting… doesn’t want to be caught.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not.

This is the first time he mentions ‘you’ not being around tomorrow… it just strikes me as weird.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

-------------------
|........................|
|......WOLF!!!......|
|........................|
-------------------

EDIT: clumsy fingers

… Flag trying to get us to lynch him…

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

^ Dunno if painting that red would be legal and all (see glossary: HIGHLIGHTING) so I won't, but it's a pretty flag, ain't it?

Lynch me pl0x.

(All right, seriously, I'll be gone now, just stole comp time while the parents are out watching soaps.)

More attempts at being lynched… but then he adds all right, seriously… so maybe he doesn’t want to be lynched…

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Too easy?

Yes it was…

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

Notes the merit of the wolves only killing one… possibly the wolf who came up with the plan?

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Then again, I'm not able to make much out of our single *chortles* lead. Except that Mnemo was smart enough to come up with that plan. But she wasn't exactly quiet, was she? She polarised the village along two lines: those in favour, and those opposing. (Plus the usual slackers, but they're always there, so they don't count. )

Then again, nobody voted for her, nobody suspected her.

Theorizing on why Mnemo was killed.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)

Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)

wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

Helpful, wary of Zil

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

Thinks Hakon is innocent but without saying much about it.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Vote time, I guess. My brother wants the comp soon.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

[lynch vote]++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

And:

++wilwarin538.

I hope to be back in a few hours, but don't count on it. *mutters rebelliously about 6am DAY deadlines*

Good vote choices.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things. We had a full DAY's vote (save two villagers), we had someone propose a bold plan (and the supporters and detractors thereof). There are lots of other things to look at, village, and we're spending too much time scrutinising but a part of it. Think about that.

*fondly remembers the times he has been tied to the stake just to test theories*

Is being quite helpful and reminding us that we don’t know Legate’s role just because of the guard vote thing… possible wolf setting himself up to look good later on.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Bah, humbug.

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty. That's good, fellow villagers.

Why Lommy, though? Well, the only thing I can come up with is that there were only three non-Legate voters: himself, her, and . . . me. Paint a bulls-eye at me, will you? And on a bloody weekend, at that?

Be back with a lynch tally. *gags*

Thinks he will be suspected and yet no one does.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)

Oh, there were four of us?

+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.

Talks about vote intentions without really ever getting into it.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

• Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.
  
  There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.
  
• Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post. It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post; furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Logical conclusion.

The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

Logical conclusion.

Logical conclusion.

Logical conclusion.

The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Legate as test case.

During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post, and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post. The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post and this post his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

• Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post; however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post, before the time of Nogrod's statement.
  
  
• The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post. He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post, after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post.

This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:

• Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
• It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
• McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

• Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.

A creative way of giving most people’s reasons for voting as they did.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Phew.

Right, you got your dates horribly screwed up, but whatever. It's DAY 1 and DAY 2, for crying out loud.

Adam, you're not in this game.

So sue me.

I shall, soon as I get a large enough needle.

Anyway, the only person I can trust in this village right now is Boro, so:

++Boromir88

The 'anomalies detected in some of the villagers' that I mentioned in my conclusion is mainly Inziladun and his posting. Having never played with him before, I do not know his playing style, therefore I do not have a basis for comparison. But reading them it seems he's at the edge of the crowd surrounding Legate, not really supporting them, but not being indifferent to it either. It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway (q.v.), which is, of course, how a Werewolf would have treated someone they set up. Add to that my unalleviated suspicion from the previous DAY, he'll be the recipient of my vote again toDAY.

[lynch vote]++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

How come you didn't use those Latin abbreviations in your travesty of a white paper?

Oh, do be quiet. I'm tired, and I had to skip lunch for that. Be back the next DAY, Eru willing.

Votes to lynch Zil and protect Boro.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Here we go again.

Do my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

A tad bit defensive when I asked him for a little more information on people.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I was not convinced of his complete innocence, but, as I said in that big thing *waves vaguely* he's the only one to make a proper case against Legate. He didn't just say, 'Oh, but Legate, we have to lynch you to explain this headscratcher away', unlike what most of you did.

Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lynch tallies.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

DAY 1:

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

DAY 2:

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil- 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

DAY 3:

+10:15 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+17:28 Nerwen - Zil (Zil - 2)
+19:42 Zil - Brinn (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+20:29 Nogrod - abstain (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+21:56 Nienna - Zil (Zil - 3, Brinn - 1)
+21:59 wilwa - Zil (Zil - 4, Brinn - 1)
+22:31 Brinn - Zil (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1)
+22:52 Greenie - Sally (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1)
+23:40 Pitchwife - Boro (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1)
+23:51 Hakon - Nienna (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1, Nienna - 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa, Shastanis Althreduin, McCaber, Boromir88

Vote tallies… good but without any thoughts attached.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Right. So. Since my analysis from the previous DAY still seems to be relevant toDAY, I shall post it here.

One of my best clues for catching Werewolves is the intention behind the vote. Not the given one, but what he actually wishes to accomplish with his vote, which is determined by the recipient, time it was cast, whether it created a tie or broke one, etc. A Werewolf would not put his fellow at unnecessary risk by casting a vote for him when there's a chance that he would be lynched as a result, and there is also a chance that an innocent can be lynched. That being said, it is a pity that Inziladun has participated in two fatal bandwaggons, where it has indeed been proven that the recipients of his votes are innocent, albeit dead ones. However it is to be noted that on DAY 1 he cast a vote for Boro to be Night Guarded, where there was still a chance that Boro might end up 'winning'. (Facts: Inziladun voted almost 3 hours before the deadline, putting Boro in solo second with 2 votes, behind Legate with 3. There were still 12 votes left to be cast.) Had Boro been Night Guarded, and there had been one kill the next NIGHT, would there have been any doubt as to Boro's fate?

Therefore, Boromir88 is 99% innocent to me. Only the Seer can correct me now, and she, unfortunately, is already dead.

On DAY 2 Inziladun cast a vote for Nogrod to be Night Guarded. He was at the end of a bandwaggon (he was 6th to vote), and it was nearly at the end of the DAY (5 minutes before the deadline). Now, the Werewolves do not know for certain what our reaction to a second one-kill NIGHT would have been, despite already having poisoned that well with Legate's body. Therefore having a fellow Night Guarded is still a risky proposition. However the vote's placement still allows for a possible Wolf-on-Wolf. Had Nogrod been lynched the next DAY, and had he turned out to be a Werewolf, then Inziladun would have looked good.

I have no conclusion on Nogrod's innocence or guilt based on Inziladun's vote, and will have to resort to other methods.

Brinniel was the only one to receive Inziladun's vote and survive. Take note that there were not votes for Brinn then, indeed hardly any suspicion. So why? Despite the two votes against him there were no indication that the bandwaggon would have been successful; therefore it would have been better to have voted for someone with suspicion. I have not yet analysed Brinn's voting/posting, something I hope to rectify later, so my only sign so far points against her.

Up-to-date analysis to follow.

Good thoughts on Boro’s innocence and Brinn needing to be looked at a bit closer.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Um, well, there are some people who seem to be blocked out my radar. Isabellkya was one, until recently. Another one is Greenie, all apologies to her. Good thing she has but a few posts, making this a quick analysis. Notes:

• DAY 1: (36) Disagreed with the Plan.
• (95, 120, 138) Seemed to have homed in on Nogrod.
• DAY 2: (218) Logical conclusion to the Legate question.
• (290) Voted for Nogrod to be Night Guarded.
• DAY 3: (411) Posted a list with a lot of unknowns (including Inziladun).
• (436) Voted for Sally when it was almost certainly impossible that she would be lynched. (The same, however, could have been said of me on DAY 2.)
• DAY 4: (482) Posted a new list, flipflopping on Hakon's innocence and moving Nogrod from Creepy to Unknown.

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?

Cos humans are only human.

Umm… brings up a player definitely not playing… not sure why… possibly confusion. Analysis of Greenie which doesn’t paint her in the best of light.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

McCaber has less posts than most of the dead (non-modfired) villagers.

• DAY 1: (111) Described the possibility of a bluff with a Night-Guarded innocent and a one-kill NIGHT with startling prescience.
• (141) Voted for wilwa for 'silly discussion on the previous page.' (wilwa had no posts on the previous page, and her posts on the page before that is regarding the details and possible problems of the Plan, hardly silly discussion in my opinion. Take note that this was also the DAY Mnemo voted for wilwa due to her 'crack theory.')
• (null) Did not vote for anyone to be Night Guarded. (As did I, but only because I do not wish to spoil my beautiful self-vote. )
• DAY 2: (198) 'We have time for a Legate lynch toDay.' But observe his vote later that DAY.
• (305) Summarised a DAY 'more interesting than I had originally wanted.'
• (319) Guard vote for Nogrod, vanilla reasons. Lynch vote for Inziladun, despite his comments about a 'Legate lynch earlier.'
• DAY 3: (368) 'Told you so' statement. Made a roundabout declaration of innocence by stating that all four Wolves must have been in the Legate bandwaggon.
• (435) Believed Nogrod to be innocent. Commented on the Werewolves possible thought processes. (Him speaking about submarines as possible Werewolves, when it can be said that he is, in fact, one, points to intellectual honesty. Or a moment of boldness.) Commented on the long-dead Plan.
• DAY 4: (514) Comments on Hakon and Pitchwife. Created distance with the Hakon bandwaggon again.
• (null) No vote.

The most striking point against McCaber is his DAY 2 actions. We have his changing intentions regarding Legate, first saying that we have time to lynch him, and then when it seemed that his vote was no longer needed to lynch him, voted for someone else (a fellow Werewolf). To look good when saying 'I told you so'? To cover himself in case Inziladun gets lynched (which did happen eventually)? Lacking more concrete suspects, and since I might have no time to go back and post it--also, no time to read his rebuttal of my suspicions --I shall cast my vote for him. As in now:

[lynch vote]++McCaber[/lynch vote]

and

++Boromir88.

Analyse the data yourself. You'll believe me when I say he's innocent.

Interesting thoughts on McCaber then a lynch vote for him and a guard vote for Boro.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Analysis of the others with more posts will have to come tomorrow, provided you or I am still alive by then.

Another mention of ‘you’ being alive toMorrow…

On the whole I’m still on the fence about Nilp. I’m not really sure how a Nilp-wolf acts and if this is anything like that. He has been logical and maybe a little bit too perfect. Something is just rubbing me the wrong way…

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All right, what happened yesterDAY?

Four quick votes for wilwa near DAY's end. Three wolves left. Anyone wants to tell me what was up with that? Sally? Nienna? Brinn?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Five innocents vs three Werewolves. We need to get one toDAY.

If we lynch the Ranger, we lose.

If we lynch an Ordo, it's 75% chance of them winning (killing the one not protected by the Ranger.)

If one of the innocents vote for a fellow innocent, all three can sneak a vote for the poor person and at worst have a coin's flip chance of winning the vote.

If there is a time to use that retraction, it's now. We need just two lynch candidates toDAY, so we won't have the Werewolves suddenly having a voting majority.

Sally voting early . . . that's two strikes for her. (Then again, a Werewolf would prefer to hold xyr vote in reserve rather than going first. But xe can also use a retraction.)

Damn it, I guess I'll have to try to stay up late for this . . .