Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

She says she thinks Brinn is innocent.

A. How is that a slip?

B. How would that exonerate Brinn?

Yes, she said "Brinn's response to Lottie seems rather innocent". But then in the next paragraph, she talks as though she knew her role for certain:

Originally Posted by Wolfiren Shadow

I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn

It could be a shorthand for, "I'm regarding her as innocent for now", of course, but to me it looks like a slip.

[wilwarin538]

K, I know you guys are all pretty convinced of my guilt but please, just think about this for a second.

If I had kept my mouth shut on Day 2 Hakon would have died that night and Pitch the following. And we would have gotten nothing, since Pitch dreamt of Greenie that Night. BUT since I pretended to be the Ranger I got us 2 more dreams (one of which is a wolf, which is lovely).

Now....what kind of stupid wolf would do this???? The Ranger was already revealed, a wolf me would have nothing to gain by bluffing and putting myself out in the open like that. Nothing. And providing the village with two more dreams??? No. A wolf me would never do such a thing, I always stay under the radar when I'm a wolf. I do crazy stuff when I'm an ord (like now) or in a role I've never had before (like my last game as Hunter), but never as a wolf.

But whatever. We're lynching Lari today so I know I've got one more Day to try and convince you, I just hope tomorrow you don't waste your time with me.

Gotta sleep now. I'll be around in the morning. And might as well vote now aswell:

++Lari

[Hakon]

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

K, I know you guys are all pretty convinced of my guilt but please, just think about this for a second.

If I had kept my mouth shut on Day 2 Hakon would have died that night and Pitch the following. And we would have gotten nothing, since Pitch dreamt of Greenie that Night. BUT since I pretended to be the Ranger I got us 2 more dreams (one of which is a wolf, which is lovely).

Now....what kind of stupid wolf would do this???? The Ranger was already revealed, a wolf me would have nothing to gain by bluffing and putting myself out in the open like that. Nothing. And providing the village with two more dreams??? No. A wolf me would never do such a thing, I always stay under the radar when I'm a wolf. I do crazy stuff when I'm an ord (like now) or in a role I've never had before (like my last game as Hunter), but never as a wolf.

Wilwa, I am indeed puzzled by why a wolf-you would have acted as you did... but then I'm puzzled by why an innocent you would either.

This–

#168.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But it's so obvious to me that Hakon is evil, I just wanted it to be out there so we can definitely get a baddie today.

does not look much like the work of an ordo intent on saving the Ranger to me.

I am, however, looking at the unknowns, just in case when we lynch you you turn out to be innocent after all. I say "when" advisedly, because– well, honestly, Wilwa, we pretty much have to lynch you. We'd be mad to leave the single most suspicious person in the village alive, when there's no longer a chance you're the Ranger.

EDIT:X'd with Hakon.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

Did we ever get the word from McCaber as to whether the Priest is allowed to protect ximself?

[Roa_Aoife]

I have never seen a rule against the Ranger protecting himself. I can recall from several games in the past where the ranger did just that, usually because they didn't know who to protect. Unless there is a specific rule from the mod, it's allowed. It is generally looked down upon as being more helping yourself than helping the village, but there is no rule against it.

[Brinniel]

++Lari

I realised I totally let her slip under my radar and have ignored her the entire game. And I don't think that's the first time it's happened. Lari has been a bit of a submarine, but next time I really shouldn't let her just slip by.

With the whole wilwa deal, I can see it going either way. Ordos have done crazy things before and if she thought it would help the village out in the long run, I can see her doing it. On the other hand, backing off from a false claim in this manner is the perfect ploy for a wolf, especially a desperate one. The fact that she anti-revealed shortly after Pitch indicated that he dreamt a wolf makes her look more suspicious as a baddie who freaked out. If she were innocent, then there would be no reason to suddenly retract the reveal since if a wolf was dreamt of, obviously it wasn't her or Hakon so neither would be lynched toDay at least. The only thing I'm wondering is why a wolf would counter-reveal like she did, especially after losing a mate on Day One. I don't think wilwa was in the spotlight at all and neither was Lari. Maybe she was assuming the ranger could protect himself? I don't know, it just seems like such a risky move to make so early on with little reason.

There's really no way to know whether wilwa speaks the truth (unless Pitch dreams her toNight and is somehow still alive the next Day). Which means we have no choice but to lynch her. I think there's a good chance she's a wolf, but if she's not, with two wolves down we can afford that loss toMorrow.

ToDay has been an easy one, but we shouldn't just assume wilwa is our last wolf and slack off. I do think we should lynch her toMorrow, but we should also spend the rest of toDay and toMorrow looking at other players in case we end up being wrong.

So right now...

Known Innocents:
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Hakon
Cray

Known Baddie:
Lari

Unknown:
Inziladun
wilwa
Roa
Nerwen
Legate
Morsul*

*I'm still leaving him as unknown on the off-chance that he isn't the agent. I'm at least fairly confident he isn't a wolf due to his disappearance. At this point, it really does look like he just gave up. As for Cray, I'll keep him as a known innocent since no one's contested his hunter claim.

Anyway, I don't think I'll contribute much tonight since it's late and considering I overslept today, I really do need to head to bed soon. But I'll try to be more productive toMorrow.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

McCaber, can the Priest protect xerself?

The priest can protect anyone in the village, up to and including their own person.

(Sorry I was late. The stars weren't quite right yet. And Lottie's narration is almost done, I promise.)

[Lariren Shadow]

Eh known wolf time!




Oh and I love the irony of how I'm talking about the wolf/human transformation in Bisclavret. Oh Marie de France how your irony makes it even into the present day to effect people's lives. Now isn't that ironic?

[Lariren Shadow]

Today, I was working at a nursery and all the babies were crying. There was a little baby piano in the room and I started playing nursery rhymes, but the kids didn't stop crying. Then I started playing Lord of the Rings. Every single kid stopped crying. MLIA

[Lariren Shadow]

Today my boyfriend of three years proposed to me. He said he didn't know what kind of ring to get me, so he got one that nobody else would have. I'm the proud owner of the One Ring from Lord of the Rings. I knew I picked the right guy. MLIA

[Lariren Shadow]

I apologize for not having the musical ability of Sally.

Today, I went up to my English teacher's desk to tell her I didn't have my homework but would have it tomorrow. In front of me a girl was explaining she didn't do hers because she stayed up late reading Twilight. My teacher wasn't amused. I told her I didn't do my homework because I stayed up late reading Lord of the Rings. She said I could still turn it in tomorrow for full credit. MLIA.

[Lariren Shadow]

SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM SpAm sPaM

The other day, while in english class my teacher started reading an example college esay only to realize three sentence in it was about a werewolf...so he kept reading. BEST. TEACHER. EVER.

++Hakon

BECAUSE I CAN!

[Lariren Shadow]

And some Lovecraft quotes:

But are not the dreams of poets and the tales of travellers notoriously false?

In London there is a man who screams when the church bells ring.

But more wonderful than the lore of old men and the lore of books is the secret lore of ocean.

Very sleek and fat did the cats appear, and sonorous with purring content.

[Morsul the Dark]

Jus wante to say I'm back! Sorry about all that unexpected problems with the internet been chewing my nails off wondering about WW ALOT of catching up o do and Congrats to Lari

EDIT:Spelling

[Morsul the Dark]

Well then I Could try to fight back Lari Suspicion but as we know that's impossible now So

++Lari

again sorry I diappeared Our internet is by usage and we went over because of an unexpected download so to avoid extra charges...

[Nerwen]

Lari on the unknown players (Day 1)
Together with a selection of things people said about her

#10.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I do agree with Wilwa about possibly being optimistic and that maybe we can get a wolf on Day 1!

That's just opening banter.

#70.
Replying to The Saucepan Wolf.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

• Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man
  On a more serious note, I am expecting everyone to play their full part toDay (and, indeed, every Day). When it comes to voting, we won’t have a lot to go on. But we’ll have even less if people don’t speak up, play their part, make their opinions known. I hereby give warning that I shall not take kindly to those who seek to hide in the quiet shadows of the thread.

This strikes me. I know in context it could be "play our parts as good villagers and find the wolves" but at the same time I took it as a sort of signal. Like the Agent to his wolves.

Classic suspect-your-mate-of-cobblery move.

Then she makes a list.
#71

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Inzil: Doesn't set off any alarms.

Pitchwife: Seems innocent to me.

Loslote: Not newbie right? Interesting comment about distracting narratives...maybe sniffing out wolves? Or not. Needs watching.

Hakon: The comment about SPM, now that I realize taken in with his, could be signaling to each other. Not good. Don't have a good feeling about him at all.

Wilwa: She has good points and is optimistic, we should keep her around.

Nog: Seems like typical Nog. I have no idea if that means he's innocent or guilty.

SPM: Needs watching. I find him suspicious for reasons in my last post. Not saying should go after toDay, but he does deserve watching.

Roa: Seems pretty innocent.

Crayon: Newbie. Newbie pass.

Nienna: Pretty innocent looking.

Nerwen: No read.

Legate: Not setting off any alarms.

Greenie: Interesting things to say, not suspicious.

Morsul: Newbie to werewolf? Gets newbie pass.

Kitanna: Nothing much at all.

Brinn: Thinks everyone is a wolf. Paranoid, needs watching.

So, these are the people she had a definite opinion about:

Pitchwife (Seer). Positive.
Loslote (ordo). Mildly negative.
Hakon (Ranger). Negative.
Wilwa (unknown). Highly positive.
SPM (werewolf). Mildly negative.
Roa (unknown). Mildly positive.
Brinn (unknown). Negative.

Meh... looks like the usual carefully-spread "suspicions'. The comment on Wilwa is interesting, though (see Nogrod's take below)

#72

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for Lari, I actually don't see anything suspicious about her, and seems actually quite good to me (even with that SpM comment, which is something I can see as reasonable, not saying that I agree with it, but I can see an innocent posting that).

#74.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow the way how Lari makes her comment on wilwa strikes me: It may be that she just wished to express herself differently (there are many of whom she says only "seems innocent" or "pretty innocent looking" etc.). But of wilwa she says that we should keep her around with actual backing / arguments for why she thinks so. And I think there had been some suspicions raised on wilwa, so that would fit "nicely" ...

[He reiterates this point at #88.]

#79

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I am currently wary of Pitchwife, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen

We now know The Saucepan Wolf mentioned one known wolf in there, and (from my point of view) two known innocents. Would he have thrown a second wolf (i.e. Zil) into the mix?

[Replying to Nogrod at #74]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I really only meant to change up what I was saying. I did my list from the bottom up, got tired of saying "seems innocent" and decided to go with a different spin.

#114.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I'm...slightly weary of Pitch's reveal. While he probably was in fear of getting lynched if we still had the tie between the two votes Inzil would be gone. It just doesn't feel that right to me.

Blah, I'm up early and hungry.

Considering I was thinking of voting SPM toDay anyway I might. But I was also thinking of voting Hakon.

At this point she is trying to cast suspicion on Inzil, but I don't think it look like wolf-on-wolf– her aim here is to cast doubt on Pitch.

She then votes The Saucepan Wolf.

So, for Day One, it looks like the living player most likely to be Lari's fellow is– what a surprise!– Wilwa.

I will note that Legate was positive about Lari, however.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

does not look much like the work of an ordo intent on saving the Ranger to me.

I said that knowing there was no way you guys would kill him that day, cause no one would want to risk killing the real ranger that early. But if I had come on and said "I'm the real Ranger, but please don't hurt the fake one" I doubt anyone would have believed me. I was pretending, but I wouldn't have let him get lynched.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

Yeah, you bluffed him into protection the third night because you were still alive. If I hadn't of bluffed, you would have died night two, and Pitch the following night. The only dream we would have gotten would have been of Greenie, but now we have 2 more dreams. So yes, I definitely helped you out a lot.

You guys really think I'm that dumb of a wolf?

[Morsul the Dark]

Wilwa, lulling the village into false security?

By the way are the cursed and changed the same or different?

Nerwen said I could only change sides if "Cused" then laer I think... it was Brinn? said she was a changed...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I said that knowing there was no way you guys would kill him that day, cause no one would want to risk killing the real ranger that early. But if I had come on and said "I'm the real Ranger, but please don't hurt the fake one" I doubt anyone would have believed me. I was pretending, but I wouldn't have let him get lynched.

*shrugs* Says you.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Yeah, you bluffed him into protection the third night because you were still alive. If I hadn't of bluffed, you would have died night two, and Pitch the following night. The only dream we would have gotten would have been of Greenie, but now we have 2 more dreams. So yes, I definitely helped you out a lot.

Ah, but did you want to? That's the question.

Look, Wilwa, I am even now going through the last two Days, to see if I can find a link between Lari and anyone else, just in case– as I said– you turn out to be innocent. If this really was a noble sacrifice on your part, surely you knew you would get lynched eventually?

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Wilwa, lulling the village into false security?

By the way are the cursed and changed the same or different?

Nerwen said I could only change sides if "Cused" then laer I think... it was Brinn? said she was a changed...

The "Cursed" or "Cursed Villager" is an ordinary villager who, if picked by the wolves at Night, doesn't die but instead becomes a wolf himself. There isn't one in this game. In fact I think the last game with a Cursed in it was about a year ago.

The "Changed" is what McCaber is calling the Hunter in this game, just to make it seem more like the story.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The "Cursed" or "Cursed Villager" is an ordinary villager who, if picked by the wolves at Night, doesn't die but instead becomes a wolf himself. There isn't one in this game. In fact I think the last game with a Cursed in it was about a year ago.

I seem to remember Wilwa's game with Little Red Cap.

Anyway, I'm looking at Legate and Nerwen's votes for Lari yesterDay. Brinn and Loslote were tied; then Legate gave the first vote for Lari. He'd done some analysis on her, and his vote couldn't really be said to be out of left field. Now, there were still Nog and Nerwen to vote, so there was a very real possibility Lari could have been lynched. Nog then went with Loslote, with Nerwen following up with Lari. Nerwen had said she was thinking of voting Lari, based on Lari's comment about Brinn being a 'fed up innocent'.
Legate, I think, looks pretty good. Nerwen is less certain, though she did point out that possible slip of Lari's.

[Roa_Aoife]

Wilwa must be the last wolf, and here's why:

The wolves naturally want to kill the biggest threat to them, which is the seer. When the seer is revealed, they cannot accurately target the seer, because the ranger is in the way. If we have two revealed rangers, neither is a wolf, and neither is the Agent (Morsul removed that possibility for us), then the wolves have two targets and no reason to leave either alive: If they kill one, then the village would naturally lynch the other, and they could happily kill the seer.

Furthermore, if the wolves believed that Wilwa was the ranger, then there was no call to attack Pitch last night, as Wilwa clearly stated that she would be protecting him. The wolves would only risk losing the kill in a village of this size if they were certain that Pitch would NOT be protected. For that to happen, they would have to believe that Hakon was telling the truth about his protection. This also explains why they didn't kill the seer before- they believed that the real ranger Hakon would be protecting him.

It seems to me that they realized the charade couldn't go on, and decided to kill the seer before he could bring any more known innocents to light, or worse (for them) find a wolf. Wilwa was a gonner anyways, but had Lari not been found out, she may have been able to stave off the suspicion of her for some time- at least until the knowns were out of the way.

[Nerwen]

Lari on the unknown players (Day 2)
Together with a selection of things people said about her

#129.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

And SPM was a wolf. Seems to confirm Pitch.

#145.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Among those who voted after said reveal, Lari is the only one who had voiced suspicion of SpM earlier and, as Kit points out, might have voted him anyway. Looks good as well.

#149.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for Lari's interaction with SpM (especially such as on the second page), well, I must say I was slightly suspicious of Lari by the end of yesterDay, after looking at SpM's posts, but on the other hand, orchestrating a Wolf-on-Wolf suspicion on such a weird comment, like saying that SpM is an Agent... unless it would be a deliberate way of creating a "shield" to defend SpM in the future (the Wolves could then say "hey yes, he is suspicious, but he's likely just an Agent, so let's not waste a lynch on him"). But for some reason that sounds to me quite too much complicated plan, which I don't think the Wolves would pull so soon.

I don't know why Legate says this, as it's common enough for wolves to pose as cobblers. Otherwise, I don't see anything wrong with this post.

#172.
[from long analysis of Nogrod.]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

The whole Lari thing- he says that he “thinks” some suspicions had been raised against Wilwa, when he himself started raising them, albeit subtly, and then tries to fit in a comment made by Lari taken out of context and twisted a bit to fit in with this. I find this to be a very subtle attempt to start swaying suspicion towards Wilwa, which would be especially sinister given his previous statements about people saying what they think. He keeps insinuating Wilwa’s guilt without ever following through.

(...)

On the whole, it’s his case against Wilwa and Lari that make him look the most suspicious. Whether Wilwa is an innocent or a wolf, the subtlety in his case after telling people to speak their minds and stir things up is highly suspicious.

You'd think she was Lari's BFF, wouldn't you? However, her analysis of Lari herself presents a different picture.

#212.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

The Dreamer revels...well if I sort of had any doubts about Pitch my doubts about Morsul have increased ten fold. However, I am leaning towards what others are saying about him maybe being the Agent. Mostly because he is new to the game and possibly a new confused Agent would think of a bold and risky move to either get the wolves attention or to save the pack. Though I'm not sure who he is trying to save, but time(hopefully) will tell.

The Priest revels...klsdfskfj...Ok now that that is out. I have no idea what to think. On one hand Hakon's boasty "haha! I has fooled the wolves by not protecting Pitch but I shall toNight! And oh yes! Let me add that I know SPM was a wolf!" sounds very much like him. But at the same time it sounds enough like him to make me doubt it. He did some weird game logic stuff before and for all we know this is the same thing.

And then Wilwa revels. And claims that no really she totally did protect Pitch last Night. And even admits saying that was who she protected was bad(after being caught by Roa(?). Her revel seems...more I don't want to say genuine, because in his own way Hakon sounds very genuine. Her's seems less gloating. And she mentioned that there were clues, which can obviously be faked and planted everywhere, but some people do rely on them to work and for when they revel having tangible evidence to prove their role.

However, this could be a bold move by two wolves trying to survive. Or this is what my sleepy brain thinks could be a possibility.

EDIT (left out comment):Supports Wilwa (again); supports Hakon more mildly. Why not try to get him lynched? Thinks Morsul is the Agent. It is possible that she is eager to do the latter because he isn't the Agent, but her packmate. Not likely, but something to bear in mind just in case Wilwa's innocent after all. Also throws out the suggestion that both claimants are wolves.

#232
[from long analysis of Lari]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Lari
[I]She gives short explanations for each view, which I appreciate. However, she builds her suspicion of Hakon using an out of context statement by SPM and feeds each one into the other, making a circular argument. Could be an innocent trying to give reason to her gut, or could be a wolf building a weak case to distance herself from her fellow.

(...)

I don't have a problem with her response to Nogrod. In fact this is the primary reason I suspect him.

(...)

Her consideration of voting Hakon looks almost like a wolf trying to salvage a situation gone horribly wrong.

(...)

Post 1- "Seems" that SPM's death confirms Pitch as seer

Seems?

(...)

The most suspicious thing about her is her case against Hakon and SPM, which was weak and based on pure assumption. A poor case is not always a sign of a wolf. I don't see why she suspects Hakon. She basically says that he's suspicious because he's acting like himself, which seems like a very made up reason to me.

Raises some interesting– and pretty damaging– points against Lari.

#234.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Lari was saying SPM needed watching early on. She expressed some doubt about Pitch's reveal. I can't fault her for that, since it caught me by surprise too.

Possibly trying to help Lari. Or just to be fair.

#244

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

• Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife
• Post 1- "Seems" that SPM's death confirms Pitch as seer
  
• Seems?

"Seems" because at the time I still had the thought of "maybe Pitch "revealed"(ha now I can spell that) so as to get raid of the high profile wolf". And then Morsul revealed and I began to believe Pitch more because, really, that was an awkward reveal.

Roa is not setting off any alarms with me and neither is Legate. Nog I just have no read on at all, because he is acting like Nog and I tend to not be able to read him at all. Inzil I still have no idea and wish I had more time to look at not just him but also Nog to see if there is anything in their posts.

(...)

Nienna is beginning to set off alarms for me. Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?)

Brinn and Kitanna I just want to see slightly more of. They both are coming up way neutral to me and I'm not sure if thats a good thing or not.

Crayon...no idea what to think.

Careful to say nothing concrete, except about the one she's lynching. Feels the need to defend herself against Roa.

...Aaannnnd it's pointing to Wilwa again. I do hope she's guilty, because otherwise it could be pretty hard to get that last wolf.

If not her then... well, Inzi's comment could be interpreted as a subtle defence. Or maybe Morsul is a wolf acting the cobbler, as some have suggested..

That's about all I can come up with. I'll look at Day 3 tomorrow.
EDIT:X'd since my last post.
EDIT2:added comment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I seem to remember Wilwa's game with Little Red Cap.

Ah, how could I forget?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Anyway, I'm looking at Legate and Nerwen's votes for Lari yesterDay. Brinn and Loslote were tied; then Legate gave the first vote for Lari. He'd done some analysis on her, and his vote couldn't really be said to be out of left field. Now, there were still Nog and Nerwen to vote, so there was a very real possibility Lari could have been lynched. Nog then went with Loslote, with Nerwen following up with Lari. Nerwen had said she was thinking of voting Lari, based on Lari's comment about Brinn being a 'fed up innocent'.
Legate, I think, looks pretty good. Nerwen is less certain, though she did point out that possible slip of Lari's.

Can I just point out that at that time my connection suddenly got really slow and it was taking 4-5 minutes for me to post? I never intended to leave the vote so late. And I didn't just vote her for the possible slip, but for the whole post.

Roa, I completely agree with your reasoning on Wilwa. However, I'm checking out Lari's relations with others... just in case. Her being innocent requires the wolves to have screwed up royally, but you never know.

So far it keeps coming up Wilwa anyway.

[Nogrod]

Okay. First things first...

++ Lari

Well done Pitchie!

Just got back from work and will plunge into reading the rest I have yet to read.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Roa

If we have two revealed rangers, neither is a wolf, and neither is the Agent (Morsul removed that possibility for us), then the wolves have two targets and no reason to leave either alive: If they kill one, then the village would naturally lynch the other, and they could happily kill the seer.

They might choose not to kill them to add to the confusion. If they killed one of the claimed rangers, the village would question why they chose to do so. After all, they'd be exposing the true identity of the ranger. If wilwa as an ordo was killed, we'd definitely not lynch Hakon. And if they killed Hakon, then we'd be hesitant to lynch wilwa because why would a wolf expose herself like that? But if they left them both alive, chances were that we'd lynch one of them and they could take care of the other the following Night.

Btw, if we lynch wilwa toMorrow and she turns out as not a wolf, I say we try lynching Morsul next. I know he looks very much like an agent, but we don't know it for sure. And I'd hate to let a wolf get away just because we made an assumption. Anyway, considering the ratio will be 8-1 toMorrow (correct me if I'm wrong), it's again something we can afford to do. We have plenty of Days left before we're in danger and with number of known innocents we already have I'm quite confident we will win. And if our final wolf somehow does manage to survive all this, then they deserve that win because they'd be awfully slick (as well as lucky with all this distraction brought on from false reveals).

I know a lot of things seem clear cut right now, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are...so let's just not assume anything until it's been proven.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

They might choose not to kill them to add to the confusion. If they killed one of the claimed rangers, the village would question why they chose to do so. After all, they'd be exposing the true identity of the ranger. If wilwa as an ordo was killed, we'd definitely not lynch Hakon. And if they killed Hakon, then we'd be hesitant to lynch wilwa because why would a wolf expose herself like that? But if they left them both alive, chances were that we'd lynch one of them and they could take care of the other the following Night.

The confusion gained isn't worth the price they are paying as a result. Why should we hesitate to lynch Wilwa if Hakon were proven to be the ranger? Even if we had doubts that a wolf would expose herself like that, it would still be safer to lynch her. There would be absolutely no reason for us to let Wilwa live after that, and the wolves could certainly not count on any doubts by the villagers saving them. And while there were calls to lynch one of them (primarily Hakon, notably by Lari), it was a move that simply couldn't be pulled off, as we refused to touch the matter and made it clear that it was our intention to leave it alone until we could be more certain or had the other wolf.

I do agree that on the very slim chance that Wilwa is not a wolf, Morsul should be lynched next. Especially if Wilwa turns out to be the Agent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here at last, I wasn't able to get online during the day due to RL and now at last when I came here, the 'Downs was down, so let's see if I can manage to read what has happened meanwhile, but from what I spotted by the corner of my eye, Lari is the baddie, i.e. Pw revealed her?

So off to read the thread, and I will hopefully post yet before the DL (well, I want to even if I don't manage to read all, unless the 'Downs go down again).

[Nogrod]

The 'Downs were down again at least here. Seems to be working again.

Wilwa: I must add to the choir which says we basically just have to lynch you toMorrow to be on the safe side. I mean that was a nice trick indeed and kudos for it whether you are a wolf or an ordo. And in the latter case we will call you the hero of the game.

But as Nerwen said, it's a different thing whether the fact that you managed to give us two more dreams was something you intended when you started your scheme or not... You are the single most suspicious player in the whole village right now, and you must know it.

If wilwa is not a wolf... well then a totally new game will start and it will be a tough one.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As for her anti-reveal toDay... Well. There was always a slight possibility we'd believe her and lynch Hakon, and I think it would have been wise for a wilwolf to make a Plan B for that case. By now, she'd have had 2 Days to prepare it.

Yep, well, I really think, personally, that the difference between a Wilwolf trying to keep pretending to be a Ranger and a Wilwolf saying that she's an ordo is that with the second one, she could theoretically live forever. Whereas with the first, even if we lynched Hakon, she would be obviously going for the gallows the next Day. It's really like the last desperate attempt to save her skin, she would not have much more to lose.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now....what kind of stupid wolf would do this???? The Ranger was already revealed, a wolf me would have nothing to gain by bluffing and putting myself out in the open like that. Nothing. And providing the village with two more dreams??? No. A wolf me would never do such a thing, I always stay under the radar when I'm a wolf. I do crazy stuff when I'm an ord (like now) or in a role I've never had before (like my last game as Hunter), but never as a wolf.

That's maybe the only question from my part, but then, perhaps you thought you can pull off something with that. I wonder what. (That makes me think of Brinn's suggestion to lynch Morsul if Wilwa is not a Wolf after all... well, I mean, if Wilwa is for example an Agent. That would be a good explanation for such a behavior. But obviously, if we lynch Wilwa, then we will know, and if she is an Agent, it is clear who would be the next in the line.)

Originally Posted by Hakon

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

Eeexactly. Pw revealed already on the first Day, and the Wolves couldn't know if he will be protected or not on the first Night. After that, it was Hakon's bluff which left him alive. Although truly wilwa's revelation played an important part in it too, because it certainly contributed to the fact that Pw (or Hakon) wasn't killed, or at least targeted, sooner.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Wilwa, I am indeed puzzled by why a wolf-you would have acted as you did... but then I'm puzzled by why an innocent you would either.

This–

#168.


does not look much like the work of an ordo intent on saving the Ranger to me.

Yep, that's what I said in the beginning, that we should look if there are any inconsistencies in wilwa's behavior as for what she claims was her aim...

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I said that knowing there was no way you guys would kill him that day, cause no one would want to risk killing the real ranger that early. But if I had come on and said "I'm the real Ranger, but please don't hurt the fake one" I doubt anyone would have believed me. I was pretending, but I wouldn't have let him get lynched.

Nah, but I don't think everybody was so focused in his mind so that the possibility that we will not decide to lynch one of you would really be really something to completely rule out. The possibility was there. It would have been a very, very, very, very bold move to do what you did: putting yourself and the Ranger at risk.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It seems to me that they realized the charade couldn't go on, and decided to kill the seer before he could bring any more known innocents to light, or worse (for them) find a wolf. Wilwa was a gonner anyways, but had Lari not been found out, she may have been able to stave off the suspicion of her for some time- at least until the knowns were out of the way.

Yep, that's more or less what I think too.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw, if we lynch wilwa toMorrow and she turns out as not a wolf, I say we try lynching Morsul next. I know he looks very much like an agent, but we don't know it for sure. And I'd hate to let a wolf get away just because we made an assumption. Anyway, considering the ratio will be 8-1 toMorrow (correct me if I'm wrong), it's again something we can afford to do. We have plenty of Days left before we're in danger and with number of known innocents we already have I'm quite confident we will win. And if our final wolf somehow does manage to survive all this, then they deserve that win because they'd be awfully slick (as well as lucky with all this distraction brought on from false reveals).

Yep, like I already mentioned above, I like that suggestion. But let's see - I more or less think we are clear by now.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Yep, and with a good memory,

++Lari

Which, by the way, means that I was right in voting her yesterDay after all! *tears of happiness*

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If wilwa is not a wolf... well then a totally new game will start and it will be a tough one.

If Wilwa isn't a wolf, and Pitch is killed toNight (because he must be), and Hakon the next night (as is logical), that would leave us with 2 knowns (you and Crayon) and 5 unknowns. At that point I think it would be logical to lynch Morsul, since he could very well be a wolf pretending to be an Agent.

If he isn't a wolf, you will likely be the next kill (as the hunter would make them nervous), leaving one known person, and 4 unknowns. To those of us who are innocent, that leaves three potential candidates. And unless we really screw it up (which is possible) the last wolf will quickly be found out.

Given the ratios, I think it won't be all that tough.

This is assuming that Wilwa isn't a wolf, which is highly unlikely.

Edit: crossed since the above post

[Roa_Aoife]

And if the last wolf isn't Wilwa or Morsul and manages to survive to the end, then they deserve to win.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with your scenario Roa... that's probably the way it will go if wilwa is not a wolf... unless the last wolf wishes to do something confusing again...

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

leaving one known person, and 4 unknowns. To those of us who are innocent, that leaves three potential candidates. And unless we really screw it up (which is possible) the last wolf will quickly be found out.

Given the ratios, I think it won't be all that tough.

It would not be easy either... but the numbers would sure be on our side. It's just that the numbers do not win wars alone.

I'm optimistic though.

To toMorrow then!

(It's actually nice that this Day when I had so little time to play turned out eventful but still easy-going.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And if the last wolf isn't Wilwa or Morsul and manages to survive to the end, then they deserve to win.

Exactly.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(It's actually nice that this Day when I had so little time to play turned out eventful but still easy-going.)

Quite so from my part, too

[McCaber]

A new day had begun and ended, and the villagers felt it was time to deliver some Innsmouth justice. Nerwen and Inziladun had follow the blood trails from the fight last night, but only one of those had led anywhere. Pitchwife traced the wolfpack using arcane methods and hidden rites, and he quickly had an answer.

When the two angry mobs met in the street outside Lairen Shadow's house, they were prepared. Torches, wooden stakes, religious symbols, silvered weapons, wolfsbane, shotguns, machetes, garlic, molotovs, and the like. Why take any chances with this?

Two swift kicks and the door was down. Craydon and Hakon were the first ones into the house. They found Lairen sitting on her bed nursing a grievous wound on her shoulder. From the elbow down her arm was still a massive furry paw.

"Alright, let's do this," she wearily said. She tried to shift into her werewolf form, but she only got halfway before she collapsed on the floor. Two Molotov cocktails sailed through the windows and shattered. The villagers quickly made an exit, and they tried to bar the door.

They tried, but they were no match for a werewolf on fire. Lairen exploded out of the wooden doors and took the fight to the mobs. Even with one useless hand she was an impressive force. No villagers died in the fight, but that was more a testament to Innsmouth resilience than to the wolf's lack of strength. She clawed her way straight to Pitchwife, who could only stare at her advance. She made it to his feet before all the punishment she took finally ended her.

And the village began to celebrate.

The Dead:
McCaber, town drunk and general layabout [mod]
Saucepan Man, disturbed and disturbing artist [werewolf]
A Little Green, blind ex-soldier [ordinary villager]
Nienna, innocent child and meteorologist [ordinary villager]
Kitanna, Innsmouth denizen [ordinary villager]
Loslote, humble seamstress [ordinary villager]
Lairen Shadow, Innsmouth denizen [werewolf]

The Living:
Inziladun, fisherman
Pitchwife, heretical organist
Hakon, Innsmouth denizen
wilwa, Innsmouth denizen
Nogrod, student of alternate cosmologies
Roa, Innsmouth physician (with everything that entails)
Craydon1, penniless drifter
Nerwen, last scion of a decadent dynasty
Legate, displaced scholar of the Pnakotic Shards
Morsul, quiet librarian
Brinn, Innsmouth denizen

[McCaber]

After the rush of the werewolf battle, Pitchwife spent one last night preparing. The dreams were his, after all, and it was clear what would happen tonight. He used the first of the hours to fill the church with music it had never heard and never will again.

Once he was in the right frame of mind, he finished his tasks.

The whole town was silent by the time the church door opened. Pitchwife rose from the pew he was praying in and turned to face his assailant. "So, it's finally time then. Come in, my friend, " he said calmly.

The werewolf slowly moved into the sanctuary. He stood a moment in shock. This was not the church he remembered. Someone had carved strange signs and painted sigils onto the walls and floor.

Pitchwife continued speaking. "I see you enjoy my work. It's not as good as what your brother the Saucepan Man would have done, but it should suffice. Come closer, into the light. I promise I won't harm you."

"You presume I need such a promise?" the wolf snarled at him. "There's not a thing you can do to hurt me." And he increased his speed.

When he entered the circle of torches, he was stopped dead in his tracks. Pitchwife stepped into the center of an eldritch symbol (almost like three question marks smashed together) and began chanting in forgotten tongues. The creature got angrier and angrier, but could neither move his paw nor drown out the man's words.

The chant reached a fever pitch. Despite his burning rage, the wolf was still anchored to the ground. His hair stood on end and his vision began to blur yellow. Pitchwife had stretched forth his arms and lifted a few inches off the ground. And he made a final cry of "Iä Carcosa quid fecit Rex Fulvata HASTUR!"

The room was flooded with golden light. When the wolf opened his eyes, Pitchwife was gone and the church was undefiled. He gave a snort and left the building.

The Dead:
McCaber, town drunk and general layabout [mod]
Saucepan Man, disturbed and disturbing artist [werewolf]
A Little Green, blind ex-soldier [ordinary villager]
Nienna, innocent child and meteorologist [ordinary villager]
Kitanna, Innsmouth denizen [ordinary villager]
Loslote, humble seamstress [ordinary villager]
Lairen Shadow, Innsmouth denizen [werewolf]
Pitchwife, heretical organist [Dreamer]

The Living:
Inziladun, fisherman
Hakon, Innsmouth denizen
wilwa, Innsmouth denizen
Nogrod, student of alternate cosmologies
Roa, Innsmouth physician (with everything that entails)
Craydon1, penniless drifter
Nerwen, last scion of a decadent dynasty
Legate, displaced scholar of the Pnakotic Shards
Morsul, quiet librarian
Brinn, Innsmouth denizen

DAY 5 IS BEFORE YOU. THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ENDLESS.

[Morsul the Dark]

although I've been told not to read into the text, I can't help but notice Mc kept referring to the wolf as He:

Inziladun: He
Hakon:He
wilwa, She
Nogrod, He
Roa, She
Craydon1 He I think
Nerwen, She
Legate, He
Morsul, He
Brinn, She

[Nerwen]

Farewell, Dreamer! In the name of great Cthulhu and the Deep Ones of many-columned Y’ha-nthlei, we will not fail you! Iä! Iä!

...So I have, as I said I would, checked out Lari's Day 3 interactions. However, I've also found what I think is a conclusive proof that Wilwa is straight out lying about her motivations in impersonating the Ranger. (Coming soon.)

I'm posting the other stuff anyway because she might still be the Agent rather than a wolf. I don't think so, but its best to be prepared.

#279

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, my results of looking at Kit's posts suggest that her main suspect was Wilwa. That's who she voted for on Day 1 (she doesn't seem to have voted on Day 2). She didn't like Wilwa's Day 1 vote aginst Hakon.
She did an analysis of Lari and me, thinking Lari looked slightly 'dodgier'.

He's just saying Lari (in Kit's view) was more suspicious than him... so nothing either way.

#292
[from long analysis of Kit]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

[I]She didn't vote. Based on her posts, I think she probably would have voted for Lari or Inzil, but we really have no way of knowing. And I think the wolves were counting on that.

#301

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one.

Fairly non-commital, slightly favouring Lari.


#307

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

This far, she [Lari] could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now.

Non-committal.

#324

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The remaining Wolf then could be people like Brinn, Nerwen, even maybe Lari...

From here on, becomes increasingly suspicious of Lari.

#336

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

What if our thinking that Morsul is the Agent is wrong? What if he is a newbie wolf, told by his packmate to reveal falsely? Or could Hakon's not death point to that he is a wolf and possibly that Morsul is also a wolf and they planned a whole double reveal planning on not killing Pitch because the logical thing for the real Priest to do would be to protect the Dreamer?

We talked about the Morsul as Agent-impersonating wolf yesterDay. But as you see, it was pushed by none other than Wolfiren Shadow herself!

She is now going strongly after Hakon, in direct contrast to her attitude the Day before, when she was for leaving the Ranger-claimants alone. Why? I think there must have been a lot of discussion that Night, and the wolves decided that their only hope was to get Hakon out of the way, whatever the cost.

Given that scenario, #336 looks bad for Wilwa– it could mean her packmate is preparing to deal with her inevitable exposure as a false Ranger by suggesting that she, not Morsul, is the Agent.

#339

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

#341

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I didn't even see that. Good catch, Lari.

#374

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, basically, of all the people, whom I could vote for toDay, after eliminating those I have eliminated in my earlier posts toDay, it's either Lari or Nerwen for me to vote toDay.

#366

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have been actually wondering, today, if it would be so improbable for those two [Lari and SPM] to really orchestrate this suspicion-exchange... well, but then again, imagining the way it was written... Hm, I will probably read the particular posts again once more, but I don't know.

#387 [The post in which she voted for Hakon]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? (...)

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow.

Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses.

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

Casts doubt on Crayon; mildly supports Roa while "suspecting" me; supports Brinn (while making what I think could be a slip in Brinn's favour); strongly "suspects" Legate, and indeed makes a mini-case against him.

#388

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why are you voting for Hakon, Lari???

I am giving the reactions of the known innocent here as a reality check, in case anyone wants to argue that the votes for Lari came out of nowhere.

#390

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be.
Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote?

Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari.

#391

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

#399

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There's the Lari - wilwa connection I spotted on Day1 and have not totally forgotten. Also Lari's vote toDay was odd indeed (whatever that might then mean).

#400

Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this.

#401

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I'm going to vote either Lari or Loslote. Just stating my intentions so there'll be no argument from Roa tomorrow.

Loslote for reasons given already, Lari mainly for her last post.

#404

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What say you: Lari or Loslote?

Conclusions:

Though Cthulhu knows Legate is sneaky enough for anything, I must say his suspicion of Lari and hers of him look serious, rather than a manufactured wolf-on-wolf act.

Lari has "liked" Roa throughout the game. On Day 3 Roa's attitude ranges from non-commital to mildly positive (really only at #341 where she congratulates Lari on pickng up Hakon's "slip"), but Day 2 she made significant points against her. On the whole, I doubt she is Lari's packmate either.

Lari has only nice things to say about Brinn (#387). A wolf trying to save her comrade? Probably not– at that point no-one was even talking about lynching Brinn, so I see it as more of a feel-good statement. The important thing, though, is whether that "slip" can be taken as proof of Brinn's innocence or not.

Inzil No real connection; mildly supported Lari in one comment on Day 2.

Morsul Now that we know Lari wanted us to think he was a cobbler-impersonator, it becomes unlikely that he is, barring the possibility of a double-bluff. Still, I think if by any chance Wilwa does turn out a non-wolf, he'll have to be next up for lynching.