Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Bah! I deduced that the Wolves would be gunning for poor hapless Glirdan. I am rather surprised that he attracted quite so many votes though. Looks like all three Wolves and the innocent Lover, plus one innocent, voted for him (in addition to Caran). If I’m right, it means that they were under pressure, which is good.

No surprise about Caran's death, though I am saddened by it, as she was showing good sense.

Some points to pick up on from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Taliesin

Firefoot brings up a great point about the Durelin / Sauce relation. Sauce does a very good job of keeping Durelin between the odd 'I'm watching her' and the 'She seems innocent'. Never really confirming her innocent, but never giving any theory about her wolfishness either …

… Again, Saucepan Man here defends Durelin trying to clear her of any suspicion, while throwing suspicion on two other unknown females.

Make your mind up. Am I "never confirming her innocent" or "trying to clear her of suspicion"? Actually, over the last few Days, I have made it pretty clear that I think Durelin innocent. I harboured some doubts as to whether she might be the innocent Lover, but they are now cleared.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

This is the second time he has used that phrase toDay: "of wolvishness at least." Doesn't want to lie?

This is risible. I am not Feanor of the Peredhil. I can assure you that, if I was Durelin’s Lover, I would be doing a much better job of hiding it. I would certainly not be conspicuously defending her.

Looks like the Wolves will probably be gunning for Durelin and me toDay. Fellow remaining innocents, you have a choice. Either you trust me or you die. It's as simple as that.

Originally Posted by Taliesin

Possible Wolves: SpM, Glirdan, Gurthang.
Could go either way: Anguirel, Firefoot, Kath.
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS.
Innocents: Caran and Durelin (SpM's lover).

How ridiculous to suggest that the three remaining Wolves are likely to be male, given that the one we killed was male. But rather convenient if you are the innocent Lover, which of course you are Taliesin, aren’t you. You have shown far too little sense to be wholly innocent and, since you are clearly not a Wolf, the conclusion is obvious.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm just wondering, was there anything specific that changed your mind, Saucepan?

Simple. By the end of the Day, I was more sure of Firefoot being a Wolf than I was of you.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I think it might be relevant to note that we have 9 people left on the ship, and 4 among us do not have everyone's best interests at heart. Not a good situation. We really need to get a wolf toDay.

We should have got a Wolf yesterDay. But I would like to note, for the benefit of the Lovers, that they better start helping us innocents to catch some Wolves, or they don’t have much chance of winning the game either.

Anyway, this is how it is:

Wolves: Firefoot, Kath. Gurthang
Innocent Lover: Taliesin
Innocents: SpM, TGWBS, Lalaith, Durelin

I am not 100% sure about Gurthang being a Wolf, and therefore not completely certain of the innocence of Anguirel or TGWBS.

I suspect that Firefoot is probably Taliesin's Lover, although I am by no means certain. It could be Kath.

In any event, I think that we should lynch either Firefoot or Kath toDay. My choice would be Firefoot. So, without further ado:

+ + FIREFOOT

That's how certain I am.

Who knows? If I am right about Firefoot being the Wolf Lover, perhaps her fellow Wolves will vote for her.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Firefoot, whose latest post just makes me all the more certain that I am right.

[Kath]

*sigh* I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will.

Other than Sauce my suspicions lie with TGWBS and Durelin. TGWBS because, despite his claims of 6th form, I know can participate more than he is doing. Such quietness with a seemingly fair excuse would be a wonderful thing to hide under. Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

So, that's three to do. At least two are going to be a bit shorter

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm not even sure if I should analyse Sauce since the one I did on Glirdan yesterDay convinced me so wrongly of his wolvishness. But I won't rest on the matter until I've done it so. Beware this won't be up til tomorrow, Glirdan took me long enough and he probably had about half the number of posts Sauce will.

Ah well, if you want to take a short cut, you can use Diamond's analysis of me for part of it. It's pretty damning. And that's how you want it to turn out, isn't it? Just like your analysis of Glirdan.

[Kath]

For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely.

[The Saucepan Man]

For all you know it might come out showing you to be smelling of roses, though it is unlikely.

Of course it's unlikely. You know that I am innocent, yet want to portray me as anything but. You have just given yourself away there, m'dear. Only a Wolf would pre-judge the outcome of her analysis.

[Kath]

I don't think that's true. Think about it, Diamond was an ordo yet her whole analysis was clouded by a preconceived view that you were a wolf. Your suspicions are based on the opinion that I am a wolf, so what I do is tainted by that suspicion.

Why am I even arguing with you? You're convinced, it won't help.

[Taliesin]

Woah.. well... . I was convinced Glirdan was a wolf. I'm not very suprised by Caranlondien's death, as I'm really not making sense at all. This is not the first time I think I see a wolf in someone who turns out to be innocent this game...

Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce.
I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this?

I'm going to sleep right now, but I'm hoping Kath can point us on some real evidence on Saucepan Man that convinces the rest of you aswell. But honestly, I'm already convinced. Trying to make me look like the innocent lover is exactly what I expected the wolves to do.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Taliesin

Actually, I kind of figure that I'm not going to be lynched tonight aswell, because the wolves are making me look like the innocent lover. Yes, that's you Sauce.
I mean, how many more proved innocents must point us at Saucepan Man? It started with Holby, and now Glirdan aswell. How longer are we, the innocents, going to ignore this?

Taliesin, if I am wrong about you, all I can say is that you have got it all wrong - just like you did with Glirdan. You need to rethink, or we are going to lose.

But I rather think that I am right. In which case, you should know that I'm not a Wolf. So why bother with me? You want to think about killing a real Wolf, so that you and your furry paramour have a chance of winning.

[Kath]

TGWBS:
Post 63 - in character talk with a vote for Eomer born out of that talk. A very early vote, though there was some reasoning for that as he said he had to go out.

Post 158 - indicated trust of Sauce and Glirdan, with some reasoning, and said we shouldn't look at either the Nilp or Eomer voters because that is what the wolves want us to do. Thinking from the wolves point of view can be helpful, but to so utterly disregard an option isn't, especially since we have now seen that a wolf was indeed in one of those bandwagons.

Post 221 - looks like a bit of facetiousness, says he'd help out if he were more conscious. Well not exactly helpful, and not even that late when he said it.

Post 225 - explains his not sense comment and says he'll be back after sleep.

Post 267 - apologises for being late. Finds morm suspicious because morm thinks he is behaving oddly, and TGWBS is saying that if he were a wolf he would not be behaving oddly, he would he behaving like he would as an ordo so as to avoid suspicion. It's a fair, in rather confusing, point, except that what a perfect bluff that would make! To be able to say, 'of course I'm not a wolf, would I be making myself so obvious if I were'? I believe that TGWBS could be such a bold wolf, I am not sure that he would be one right now due to the time constraints he is under. Doesn't suspect Caran for using the same reasoning as morm because she hasn't played with him so often. Puts suspicion on me for not taking his 6th form duties into account. That's because sure, it's a lot of work, but it isn't that much. There are people playing who work far later into the evening yet are still getting more input in. Joking comment to Sauce.

Post 269 - votes for morm because of some suspicion and because it's traditional. Not a great bit of reasoning for a vote, especially when not Day 1, but at least there is some.

Post 276 - points out some hypocrisy on morm's part, though claims it is not meant to throw suspicion on him. Odd after voting for him.

Post 292 - says Holby was foolish to reveal as morm would have died first anyway, but thanks her for it anyway. Well, that comment could be taken either way but the sentiment seemed genuine.

Post 294 - after Day end post immediately suggesting the known innocents lead the village from now on. This has worked in previous villages and so was a good suggestion, except for the possibility that one of them was the innocent Lover, which I don't think he took into account at the time.

Post 327 - pleads that the known innocents draw up lists to vote from.

Post 346 - again proposes the list idea, saying that the three will be absolutely objective. Well, no. There possibility that one of the three could be the innocent Lover is still there, and their opinions will have been influenced by those of the rest of the village. Also argues with Gurthang a little over a difference in opinion.

Post 349 - creates his own lists for the innocents based on their suspicions and votes for Gurthang because of a feeling and because he appeared on all three lists. A little subjective as they didn't categorically state that these were their suspicions, he drew them from their posts.

Post 412 - again apologises for lateness and says he will have to emulate me and steal other peoples theories, deciding to suspect Gurthang and Firefoot based on them, presumably using the reasoning previously mentioned.

Post 414 - votes Gurthang, again I'm presuming based on others reasoning, as he may not be back later.

Post 435 - says he would look at Gurthang and Firefoot as they are his chief suspects but he is too busy. Helpful that


Well, I must say I'm having difficulty believing a wolf would be so carefree about everything. He's barely posted, has said almost nothing within those posts. His votes rarely have any reasoning behind them, and yet while these traits often point to wolvishness, in this case they seem to be the opposite. I mean, he's not even trying. My opinion right now is just that he's an extremely unhelpful innocent, except in terms of making up the numbers. It could all be an act, it would be a perfect example of flying under the radar, but I really don't think so.

[Kath]

That's it from me for now. Need sleep!

Back in the morning (RL) to do Durelin and Sauce.

[Gurthang]

Uhm...

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

Saucepan and Taliesin are going at each other pretty good, and Kath and Saucey's little spat just now seems really strange.

But, seeing as I have to go (again) I'll just have to see how it plays out through the Day.

[Durelin]

Durelin for much the same reason. I don't recall her having said much at all throughout the game.

Analysis isn't my thing. It never has worked for me, though I've tried it before. Also, believe it or not, I have been short on time, due to having to prioritize.

(And for this, I apologize to everyone, especially Cailin, as the moddess.)

I'm a little worried about one thing, though. And that is why I'm not dead yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, Kath's analysis of TGWBS has me wondering about him. As I read through it, knowing her to be a Wolf, I though that she was going to make a case against him. But she ends up effectively clearing him, which makes me wonder whether he might not be innocent after all. I have become increasingly doubtful as to whether Gurthang is a Wolf. It might be too obvious, if you get my meaning. And then there's that spat with Rune. It could have been a deliberate Wolfish effort to get Rune lynched and thereby earn credit. Or it could have been an innocent accusing a Wolf which at least one other Wolf (Firefoot and, possibly, Anguirel) seized on to gain credit.

Gurthang, Anguirel and TGWBS - I know that one of you is a Wolf, but I think it's only one. My message to the two of you who are innocent is please let's co-operate and rid ourselves of a Wolf toDay.

I am certain that Durelin is innocent and almost certain about Lalaith, so my message to you two is the same.

Firefoot and Kath are Wolves. We must kill one of them toDay or we are most probably lost.

[The Saucepan Man]

If we kill an innocent toDay, the Loveless Wolves will have a choice. They could kill the innocent Lover (which the Wolf Lover would try to prevent, but no doubt be powerless to prevent) or they could kill a plain innocent.

If they kill the innocent Lover, then you have lost.

If they kill a plain innocent, then toMorrow’s complement will be 3 Wolves (2 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 4 innocents (3 Ordos and 1 Lover). Very easy for the two Loveless Wolves to engineer the killing of either a plain innocent or the innocent Lover in this situation. Either way, you lose and the Wolves win.

But, if we kill a Loveless Wolf toDay, the innocent Lover will almost certainly be safe toNight. A plain innocent will be killed. That leaves 2 Wolves (1 Loveless and 1 Lover) and 5 innocents (4 Ordos and 1 Lover) toMorrow. Much easier for the Lovers to win from this position. And although I will do my damndest to prevent that happening when it comes to it, I would reiterate that, for toDay, it is in your best interests to help the innocents kill a Loveless Wolf.

[Firefoot]

Wow, Sauce seems... riled.

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover. At least I had back-up for my theory. I don't even know how to defend myself to Sauce's accusations, since I'm not exactly sure what they're based on... all I know is he has suspected me from Day 1, and a lot of it had been of the "she makes a good point here, but there's always this..." variety (not lately, obviously).

I'm confused. There's quite a few accusations flying around, and I only wish I had time to sort through and think them all out.

What he said.

[Durelin]

At least I had back-up for my theory.

And Taliesin was at the head of it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm a bit confused where the Taliesin = lover came from... also, I have no idea where you get me to be his lover.

Taliesin is behaving in the manner that I would expect a Wolf to behave at this stage in our travails. Since he is clearly not a Wolf, I strongly suspect that he is the innocent Lover.

I really don't know whether his Lover is you or Kath. But it is one of the two of you.

As for my certainy about you, well it's based on my long analyses yesterDay, which your behaviour toDay has confirmed in my mind.

If you are the Wolf Lover, do me a favour and vote for a Wolf.

[Durelin]

I've been wary of trusting Sauce this entire game. Right now I'm starting to feel like I've been kept alive because I trust him.

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.

I'm not dead probably because I'm normally seen as worthless.

Fair enough, I suppose.

I think if Sauce was a wolf, though, it's more likely that I would be dead by now. Because a good 'I told you so' is a good way to boost people's image of you. Except...the wolves, whoever they are + Rune, have been busy.

Bleh...I'm trying to think things through, and it's not working.

I think I'm still going to go with Sauce being innocent, though, for now, at least.

Oh, and yes, I'll tell you right now: the whole purpose of this post was to show that I have a little bit of suspicion-feeling stuff concerning SPM just to throw you guys off of our trail, cause you know he's been telling me who to lynch this whole time. Right.

EDIT: Cross-posted with SPM.

[Gurthang]

As weird as this sounds, I actually think Saucepan might be innocent. He's been offering a bunch of 'advice' and stuff... to the Lovers. And that's something that he would only do as an innocent.

Let me walk myself through this. If he was a wolf, he would assume that the ordo-Lover knows who he is. If he suggests the plan he just put forth, where the Lovers lynch a wolf toDay, then he would practically be persuading the Lovers to try to get him lynched.

Now, if he was one of the Lovers, then this wouldn't work either. I just don't see him putting out all that information when he could just keep it to himself. It would be basically telling the village his whole strategy.

Still, I'm not sure where he's coming up with this whole thing about Taliesin and Firefoot being the Lovers. But, by what I said above, Saucey is more than likely innocent, and so he's probably pretty close to being right. I think he might be right that Firefoot is something evil. I might be voting for her later, but as always, I'll be waiting until close to the end of the Day. Taliesin is acting strangely, too, but I'd rather leave him since we known he's not a wolf.

[Anguirel]

You know, it seems to me as if some berserker alien inflitrator has possessed the Real Admiral Potboiler. These rabid certainties are not characteristic of him either as innocent or wolf. Maybe it's the football season. But first, to yesterday's votes (lacking the Firefoot Method, boo hoo)

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

My vote's timing was dictated solely by, er, timing. It was a real feel about in the dark and does not represent the kind of certainty Sauce apparently possesses today.

Durelin has latterly (and then) been heavily playing the "Don't Kill Me, I'm Hapless" card. This vote is consistent with such an image. Glirdan was-as Sauce pointed out-an easy target to kick. The first vote of a bandwagon (I am aware I could be referring to myself) is a fine place to hide.

Lalaith has shown dogged consistency in her pursuit of Gurthang lately; it makes interesting comparison with her fuzziness on Rune. But there is a lot to suspect from the plank operator. More on that anon.

Engels again shadows Lalaith closely. If you ask me, this is a lovers pair we can rule out-few would brave such close association. These two have long been Gurthang-harriers. It should also be noted that they're both lucid thinkers. I believe they may have spotted what we all missed. I've long thought Engels at least an innocent.

Glirdan's vote was clearly a lurch towards self-preservation.

Kath then cast a vote that could very well be called Glirdan's death sentence. The second voter is a very dangerous proposition. A wave of Glirdan votes followed; partly due to these Sauce is convinced Firefoot is a wolf and Taliesin the Innocent Lover. Hold your horses, Sauce. Your strident convictions could mar our search for a culprit. Get back to your wider perspective.

Sauce's and Gurthang's votes are a coda, sonorously bringing the symphony of lynching to its end. Without meaning in the political short-term, they make all the difference now. Because of them I am inclined to see Sauce as an innocent (though taken for a ride by "hapless" wolf-Durelin) and Gurthang as guilty.

More in the afternoon.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Sauce should be dead by now, except that the wolves of course tried to get rid of the gifteds first, and then they had to deal with (and are still dealing with) the innocents that Holby revealed.

Durelin, much of your post is rendered redundant by this fact. Plentifully provided with practically trailless innocents to kill, no wolf would worry about Sauce, you or anything of the sort.

Later.

[the guy who be short]

I think you may be right... I'll probably die toNight, so I'm just saying it here, I'm strongly suspicious of Firefoot and Gurthang now.

The dying words of Caran. Though my calls for a dictatorial republic are ever denied by fearful wolves and arrogant innocents, I myself will consider these words. And though I consider SpM innocent, I wish to consider things myself now that I have some time allotted to me.

[the guy who be short]

Before I start my own analyses, Taliesin being a Lover does make some sense. I have not analysed him myself, so I do not claim I hold this theory, merely that it is logical that a lover-wolf would convince the others to kill Taliesin last.

Now to analyse.

[the guy who be short]

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Gurthang, meanwhile, consistently votes extremely late. I don't like it. four of his votes have been for innocents, one for a Rune under such suspicion that he would later die anyway.

Firefoot's voting record in less easy to analyse, as she has voted for many who lived yet. Still, it is hardly flattering. The only anomaly is her Rune vote when he was drawing with SpM on Day 4. As SpM says, this my no means exonerates her. It can be construed to make her look bad.

[the guy who be short]

A few additional notes re: Kath and Firefoot.

Kath - She keeps trying, and failing, to get somebody else to suspect me. It's University season, dear, and you know it. She also seems to go into a Glirdan analysis yesterday without considering anything Rune had said.

Firefoot - She has behaved illogically twice on this ship. The former was in reaction to my Innocent Lists idea, which she opposes on the grounds that they are no better informed than we are. I'm not going into it all over again, but only an arrogant innocent or a wolf would deny the logic of putting incredible importance on three known innocents.

The second was in her proposal of using gender to the village's advantage. She doesn't say how we could do this, and I suspect she only wishes to appear helpful. Considering we had a gender difference of one at the time, why even bother mentioning it?


In addition, I don't think enough there was enough emphasis on Rune-analysis yesterday. I hope to be able to go into this today, though two football matches stand in my way.

In case I am unable to return, I now cast my lot in with the man of pans.

++FIREFOOT

[Firefoot]

Your first point I have already addressed. The second point is illogical in itself.

You are making a mistake. You know, I've been painted as a wolf so long I'm starting to feel like some backwards cobbler. You might as well just lynch me - you all must be getting used to getting it wrong by now.

[Kath]

Sauce:
Post 21 – in character, possibly joking suspicion on Nilp and Durelin.

Post 23 – more in character banter, directed at Rune and myself.

Post 24 – more in character, this time directed at Firefoot, in support of lynching the pirates.

Post 28 – character assassinations of everyone. Has a few he says he trusts, only Firefoot from the girls and pretty much everyone but Glirdan from the males. Then creates a lynch list consisting of Jenny, Di, Tali, Durelin and Nilp. If a joke then an unfortunate one in hindsight since 3/5 are now dead and proven innocent. If he’s a wolf I think it suggests at least one of his comrades is on it, so either Durelin or Tali.

Post 30 – switches the order of the list to have Di on top, presumably because she was head pirate.

Post 48 – says the banter must stop, though continues it a little himself. Had some suspicion of Form for almost asking to be lynched and for his Day 1 apathy, though he admits that is usual for Form. Also suspects Jenny for trying to look helpful without actually being so, that was over the ‘do the wolves post early’ thing. Thinks morm is not a wolf because he voted early. Suspected Rune for his vote for Eomer. Could be an innocent having picked up on that well, or a wolf suspecting his fellow because he thought nothing would come of it. Some suspicion of Gurthang for going after Eomer as well. This protection of Eomer business was an odd one. Nobody actually knew he was innocent yet those who didn’t vote for him seem to feel that those who did knew he wasn’t a wolf. Now while that may be true for some it can’t possibly be true for all. But he had a point about there needing to be some basis for such a vote, though it was Day 1.

Post 49 – banter with Di or Jenny (can’t tell who he was referring to) asking how he was double bluffing (looking for pointers?) and asks for clarification on Gurthang’s Bible reference. That’s quite understandable as I think it confused quite a few people. Is pleased that Nilp has voted for himself, but then, Nilp always votes for himself, if he didn’t it would be cause for worry.

Post 55 – agrees with Lalaith that the voting records will be easier to analyse because of the Lovers, except that it may create more in the way of wolf on wolf votes because of fears over traitors so only works only on. Could be just an innocent commenting or a wolf trying to discount a plan. Also some banter with Lalaith. Answers Ang saying the real Lover wouldn’t hint at their role but another wolf might hint at being the Lover falsely in order to draw out the real one. A bit convoluted and I’m not sure how it would work. Could be an innocent trying to figure out how the Lover’s would play or a wolf trying to do the same thing, though I’m not sure a wolf would bother saying out loud, unless he were trying to appear like an innocent. Says he doesn’t like the way Ang is encouraging the Eomer bandwagon but that he is still inclined to trust him. Interesting that, wolf comrades there perhaps?

Post 66 – tells Jenny the Goose is just a joke, bit of banter. Says she is right to trust him but she shouldn’t trust all with such a way with words. Says he will lay off Nilp (when was he suspecting him?) because he is being Nilpish and it is impossible to tell whether Nilp is wolvish or not until after Day 1. Says it is unlikely that a wolf would get involved in the Eomer bandwagon, having previously suspected people for doing that, and I think clears TGWBS on that basis. Bothered by the lack of reasoned votes.

Post 67 – explains how he would act if a wolf, the opposite way in fact to how he is acting, and not true as we have seen wolfSauce and he behaves no differently, but using this theory decides that Lalaith, Tali, Holby, Caran and Firefoot fit the bill. A little unfair as Tali is (pretty much) a newbie and the others often play like that anyway. With two of the five dead, and one the Seer, it is again an unfortunate statistic.

Post 81 – sticks with his earlier theory but discounts Lalaith because she is committing herself more and Tali because he hasn’t returned. Then discounts Firefoot and Caran because they only gave weak reasoning for their votes and he thinks a wolf would give better. Votes Holby, again unfortunate in retrospect, for lack of substance and odd behaviour. Well, he did say he had a good record for picking the Seer as a wolf! However, if a wolf, at the time he would only have known her to be innocent, and with the bandwagons around on either side it was a pretty safe vote.

Post 118 – thinks Eomer’s death was odd and was because the wolves had a grudge, thought him Gifted or wanted him out of the way. Angry with people for voting for Nilp and Eomer because they turned out to be innocent. But at the time no one, except Jenny for Nilp, knew that either was innocent, so this doesn’t make much sense. Suspects Firefoot and Holby for their ill-reasoned votes, and Durelin for being so quick to come and defend hers. Again mentions some trust of Ang even though he did vote Nilp, because he was trying to save Eomer, who at the time we did not know was innocent. Again says it’s unlikely that more than two wolves were involved in the Eomer bandwagon. Has some suspicion over Jenny for trying to save Nilp and Eomer, even though he did the same thing.

Post 121 – says Gurthang is wrong and that Eomer would not have been suspected today if he was alive but that is unlikely. It is probable that the wolves would have taken advantage of the suspicion on him the Day before and kept it going, effectively causing us to argue about him all Day and distract us from finding the wolves.

Post 125 – again speculates over the reason for Eomer’s death, thinking that perhaps no wolf voted for him so there would be no trail, and suspects Gurthang for pushing the bandwagon but not voting on it. Acknowledges morm’s suspicion of Ang but thinks it was too hasty.

Post 157 – again asks why the wolves killed Eomer, repeating his earlier reasons but discounting the grudge theory. Eventually decides it was just to cause confusion and put suspicion on those who voted for him, and so decides that there would only be one wolf amongst them. Thinks Lhuna or Di could be this one because Eomer said they looked innocent, and that Di looks the more suspicious. Again unfortunate in retrospect, but could be an innocent just going in the wrong direction. Agan defends Ang’s vote for Nilp, this time against Holby, and maintains suspicions of her and Firefoot for their votes and lack of contribution. Also suspects Gurthang for trying to make out that his Lover’s reference had a plan behind it, and for encouraging the Eomer bandwagon but eventually placing a ‘safe’ vote with Di. Thinks Glirdan innocent because his analyses just don’t work. Interesting since that’s what made many of us think him guilty. Could be because he knew Glirdan was innocent or because he’s played with him more often. Again defends Ang, this time against morm, and puts some suspicion on morm though immediately removes it again. Says his main suspects are Gurthang, Holby and Firefoot (though only one of the latter two) followed by Di, Durelin and morm. Everything is well reasoned and just how an innocent Sauce would act. It’s just that, a wolvish Sauce acts the same way.


Alright that's as far as I've got so far. Back later to keep slogging away at it. It's as balanced as I can get it given that I think he's wolvish.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

Alright that's as far as I've got so far. Back later to keep slogging away at it. It's as balanced as I can get it given that I think he's wolvish.

Balanced? Ha! It looks precisely like an analysis which is attempting to appear balanced but which intentionally continually drops subtle little references to arouse suspicion.

Like the constant references to my "unfortunate" statistics. Of course they are unfortunate with the benefit of hindsight. I am sure that everyone's early suspicions and votes have elements that were "unfortunate" with the benefit of hindsight. It's the nature of the game, m'dear.

Originally Posted by Kath

Has some suspicion over Jenny for trying to save Nilp and Eomer, even though he did the same thing.

This is a complete misrepresentation. I saw nothing suspicious in Eomer and therefore did not want to vote for him. Jenny actively campaigned to save Eomer (and Nilp). There is a massive difference. I understand now why Jenny did what she did but it was suspicious at the time.

Originally Posted by Kath

Everything is well reasoned and just how an innocent Sauce would act. It’s just that, a wolvish Sauce acts the same way.

True. But a Wolfish Sauce would not act the way I am acting now. Then again, I am sure that you, and others who want to see me hang today, will characterise that as suspicious too.

I could say a lot more about that analysis, but I have a rather important football match to attend to. Suffice it to say that I am rather regretting my early vote now since, while I still believe Firefoot to be a Wolf, I am absolutely certain that Kath is one.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Gurthang, meanwhile, consistently votes extremely late. I don't like it. four of his votes have been for innocents, one for a Rune under such suspicion that he would later die anyway.

I can be here late, so why shouldn't I wait until then to vote? I really don't understand why this is so suspicious. If you say my voting is suspect, well, I'll give you that, because it sure doesn't sparkle. But I don't think that time is a very valid reason.

I'm becoming somewhat suspicious of this Firefoot bandwagon. I don't know if she's innocent or not, as I haven't really looked into her myself. I'm just concerned that all the momentum has shifted so quickly. It's making me wonder again about Saucey, and about Guy as the second voter.

Quite frankly, I have no idea what to think. This feels way to much like Day 1 to be real. I've had suspicions of Guy before, and that nagging feeling is always there when playing with Saucepan Man. Firefoot has given me pause a few times, and Durelin has been acting strange, but I guess that's more normal for her. Right now, I have no idea who I'm gonna vote for. Hopefully, I'll find something to point me in the right direction.

[Lalaith]

I'm sorry, what I thought was tiredness last night was actually the start of a migraine which I still have, so don't expect much from me toDAy.

But I would like to keep options open for as long as I can rather than leap on a great juggernaut of a Firefoot bandwaggon, which may end up telling us very little if Firefoot turns out to be innocent after all and no-one else was really being threatened.
Speaking of which, the Glirdan bandwaggon yesterday: it only really took off when Gurthang was up to two votes, so if Gurth is a wolf then one or even both of the other wolves will have been not just voting but stoking that waggon. (Feasibly the wolves on the waggon may have been trying to save Saucie or Firefoot, too, if either of them are wolves, however neither of them were in much danger yesterday, with both getting only had one vote early on and another cast late for Firefoot, when the Glirdan bandwaggon was already up and rolling)
And we can't find out unless we lynch Gurthang, which I confess I would still like to do.
But I need to broaden my scope. Even if Gurth is a wolf, there are still two more wolves out there so I need some more suspects. If I feel better I will try to go through everything. Again.

[Firefoot]

Like the constant references to my "unfortunate" statistics. Of course they are unfortunate with the benefit of hindsight. I am sure that everyone's early suspicions and votes have elements that were "unfortunate" with the benefit of hindsight. It's the nature of the game, m'dear.

But you fail to give other people the same consideration:

She labelled four unknown innocents as innocent in #164 (if a Wolf, she would know).
[And, actually, as Caran failed to note, this was part of a larger analysis... not important, maybe, but this way it looks like I just randomly chose those four as innocent...]

I'm not saying this shouldn't or can't be used as evidence... but it's the same way for everyone.

uffice it to say that I am rather regretting my early vote now since, while I still believe Firefoot to be a Wolf, I am absolutely certain that Kath is one.

[Kath]

Yes, which is why I said unfortunate in hindsight not ‘Look! He voted for 3 innocents and suspected many other, lynch him he’s a wolf!’ Had I done that I would consider it to be unbalanced.

And on we go.

Post 169 – agrees with TGWBS somewhat over not looking at Eomer voters, though does point out that it’s odd coming from TGWBS since he was an Eomer voter, but says he still retains suspicion of Di for it, and also believes that there is a wolf amongst the Nilp voters, with the other wolves being people who voted for someone else. In light of this he splits the village accordingly. Again repeats that either Firefoot or Holby is a wolf, and that it is more likely to be Holby. Finds Caran, Form and Gurthang’s votes suspicious as possible wolf on wolf votes, with Gurthang at the top of the list. Also some suspicion of morm because he was so bold. Mentions suspicion of Jenny with the same reasoning as many others came up with. Not suspicious as he was the first to do it, but did say that if she were not a wolf Holby was. If a wolf then that’s a good way to push suspicion onto someone else if Jenny ended up lynched or dead. Apologises for if he blew Jenny’s cover as Hunter, which is just silly because if that worried about it he wouldn’t have done it. Well, ok he might there could be reasoning for that. But in that case it’s either slightly silly innocent time or a wolf going ‘oops’ and asking for forgiveness after the fact, and Sauce isn’t silly.

Post 171 – speculates that Jenny may be the innocent Lover. Not sure there was any reasoning behind that at the time.

Post 174 – backtracks and says he doesn’t think her the Hunter as she wouldn’t have bothered trying to save Nilp and Eomer.

Post 190 – says he has confused himself so will now ignore Jenny and go back to Gurthang, Holby and Firefoot, but says Gurthang has quelled his suspicions somewhat. Votes Holby because he feels Firefoot is more innocent. Says he dislikes the way Firefoot does analyses, or at least that kind of analysis in general, because it makes it easier for a wolf to hide.

Post 245 – apologises to Jenny for revealing her, but says he didn’t think she actually was the Hunter. Takes a quick look at the villagers. Suspects Di, Gurthang, Firefoot, Holby, wary of Ang and Lalaith, unsure over me, Tali and Caran and inclined to trust everyone else. Has reasoning for suspecting or not suspecting everyone. Looks to be very fair and reasoned, but then I wouldn’t expect otherwise whatever the role.

Post 263 – apologises for not being around much. Votes Holby because she is still his main suspect for being careful with her votes and condemning Lhuna. Maybe there should be a new role – ‘Seer catcher’

Post 322 – apologises for not being around and causing Holby to reveal. Completely disagrees with Di’s analysis, trying to discredit it by saying it was biased by a preconceived view (fair enough) but thinks she is just a misguided innocent. The innocent part is right, not so sure about the misguided. The points she made in that analysis are good and though I’m almost trying to find him innocent at the moment I can’t help but see the same things. Suspects Rune because his post was saying things without actually being helpful. Suspects Firefoot by default though thinks she has been helpful so far. Beginning to think Lalaith a suspect, though no reasoning there which is odd.

Post 347 – agrees with TGWBS’s list suggestion. Again a quick look over the villagers. Finds Durelin and TGWBS innocent and Ang mostly so. Unsure over me, Lalaith, Di, Gurthang and Glirdan. Finds Rune guilty and votes for him. Again all reasoned, but some very concrete views over Durelin, TGWBS and Rune. He was right about one, though this could be due to innocent deductions or wolvish knowledge, so it is possible that he’s right about the other two.

Post 374 – lots of optimism due to Rune’s death, and sets out a list of things that should be looked at. Some suspicion of Glirdan for seeming surprised at who died, fair enough as with a list of known innocents is was fair to assume the deaths would be from it.

Post 377 – reinforces his belief that TGWBS is innocent because he thinks there was only one wolf in the Eomer bandwagon and that would now be Rune. Thinks one of Durelin, Ang and Firefoot is a wolf because they voted for Nilp. Thinks two of Glirdan, Lalaith, Gurthang and me is a wolf (eep, that’s really bad grammar). Thinks Glirdan’s vote for me might have been a wolf on wolf vote, but because it was Day 1 it’s likely that only one of us was. Says a wolf may well not vote first Day, so it doesn’t clear me. Also thinks Gurthang’s vote was wolvish.

Post 378 – says that he will look at Gurthang’s having saved his life.

Post 380 – thinks there may not have been a wolf in the Lhuna bandwagon, but that if there was one it would be Glirdan. Thinks there was only one wolf in the Holby bandwagon too, and since that was Rune it clears Durelin. Thinks Firefoot’s vote for Lalaith looks like a wolf on wolf vote, but thinks that since there was no need for one only one of the two will be wolvish. Suspicious of Gurthang for his throwaway vote.

Post 381 – says he thinks Rune may have been an intentional sacrifice, so there will be at least one wolf who voted for him.

Post 382 – thinks either Glirdan or I was the wolf in the morm bandwagon, and Gurthang the wolf in the Holby bandwagon. Keeps finding ways to point out TGWBS as innocent. Finds Lalaith to be more innocent than before due to her vote for Rune though it is possible that she is the innocent Lover.

Post 384 – thinks at least one, or possibly two wolves voted for Rune and thinks these are Firefoot and Gurthang due to vote placement, though mentions some suspicion of Ang as well. Finds Durelin’s vote for Rune innocent-looking due to prior suspicion and his general good feeling about her. Also lessened his suspicion of Glirdan because he voted for Sauce who thinks it unlikely that two wolves would vote for him. More comfortable about TGWBS and Lalaith because they voted for Gurthang, who he views as suspicious. Says my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote.

Post 385 – little bit of banter with Gurthang.


Ugh, I've just seen how much longer he goes on for. I need a rest. However, so far I get the feeling that doing more isn't going to help. He's acting just like an innocent Sauce, which is a perfect cover for a wolvish Sauce. However, his recent habit of being absolutely sure about people is the most worrying thing, as there is no way he can be so sure unless he knows, and the only way he can know is by being a wolf or the innocent Lover. His constant talking about the Lover's is also something of a worry, as he starts by demanding that we lynch Tali because he is definitely the innocent Lover, and then goes on to say that the Lovers must help us catch the non-Lover wolves because otherwise we have no chance.

I think him wolvish, and this latest little thing about suddenly wishing he could switch his vote from Firefoot to me just makes me even surer. Flip-flopping is generally considered a wolvish trait, and if he is so sure Firefoot is a wolf why wish he hadn't vote for her?

Anyway, I'll be back later to see the analysis through to the end.

[Anguirel]

The two main developments since I left have been Engels' vote and Kath's Sauce analysis. Both are interesting, in that they attract the attention of my lynch-instigating instincts.

Engels has two main suspects-Kath and Firefoot. The evidence for the guilt of Kath is far more concrete.

Originally Posted by Engels

Going over SpM's analyses from yesterday, I end up feeling more uncomfortable about Kath than either Gurthang or Firefoot, largely on her voting record. She conveniently doesn't vote on Day 1, votes for an innocent Jenny unlikely to be lynched on day 2, clinches morm's death - saving Rune - on day 3, and votes for an innocent Glirdan on Day 4. She often votes for minor candidates with no chance of lynching. On Day 5, She votes for Glirdan, potentially equalising with a wolvish Gurthang, and staring a bandwagon.

Yet he votes Firefoot. This seems to me an astute course of action for a wolf, latching onto the bloody-mindedness of the innocent Sauce to form a rapid consensus against Firefoot before anyone has had real time to consider. It's evocative of the Glirdan bandwagon of yesterday, actually.

Now, Kath's indictment of Sauce is largely based on the fact that she, like me, is disconcerted by his certainty. She says only a wolf or innocent lover could be so certain. Sauce is really certain. Ergo he is a wolf or innocent lover.

Rank tosh, m'dear. That's like saying "Only wolves have fur and growl. Sauce has fur and growls. Ergo he's a wolf." The point is, why would a wolf openly swagger about revealing fur and growling? Why would an innocent Lover or Wolf flaunt their certainty? I believe they'd be much more likely to affect an attitude of haplessness-like you, Kath, or like Durelin.

Like the North Wind the Pan Man blows
So Firefoot to the gallows goes.
Yet in my view t'would be more wise
To swing sly Miss Kath in the skies
And others too do inspire fear
(Durelin, Gurthang, Engels near)
In me-I wouldn't be dismayed
If those four were be scaffold laid.

[Gurthang]

I'm beginning to think that Saucepan might not be innocent. He just seems too flip-floppy to me. A few days ago, he was completely sure of my guilt, and yet he never got around to voting for me. Then he relaxes his suspicion of me (of which I was relieved) and went after Firefoot. Now, after voting for Firefoot, he suddenly becomes more sure that Kath is a wolf. It just doesn't seem like what I usually see from Saucepan Man. He might receive my vote, but I'm not convinced yet.

I was thinking about the voting yesterday. It would make sense to me that the wolves would either A) vote second to try to get a bandwagon rolling or B) when someone reached a significant total, finish them off so that no wolf could be lynched. So, here's how it ran:

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

Second voters: Guy, Kath, Saucepan

I'll remove Saucepan because the decision had been made already to lynch Glirdan, so it had no bearing. (Although, I remain suspicious because of what I said above.)

Finishing him off: Taliesin, Firefoot, Caran

Caran's dead, so she's not in there.

That leaves Guy, Kath, Taliesin, Firefoot. Taliesin we know not to be a wolf. So I would wager that there is (at least) one wolf, maybe the lover (Taliesin could be that) in that group. Of course, you could just say that that's pretty obvious considering the high percentage of evils we have floating around. Anyway, I'll probably vote for one of them... or maybe Sauce. It mostly depends on what difference it makes towards the end.

[Anguirel]

Another important issue-we haven't heard from Goosey Gander lately. Has the renowned Admiral eaten him? Was he assassinated politically? Is there a conspiracy? I think we should be told.

Well. An hour and a bit till nightfall and most of us uncommitted...this could be interesting.

[Kath]

RL: Off to drown my sorrows after the England game, so unlikely to be back for hours (and not in any fit state either).

Therefore:

++SAUCE

[Firefoot]

Thoughts on TGWBS:

His first post contained his vote for Eomer; it was Eomer's third vote (the second was Rune's...). Of the other people who had thus far received votes, Kath is the only one we don't know about - the other two were both innocent. I would say his vote was a pretty easy bandwagon vote.

Post 158, he wanted us to look at people who had voted for neither Eomer nor Nilp; well, this creates the possibility of a protection for Rune (voting for Eomer) and himself (whether wolf or innocent), as well as possibly Diamond, Durelin, or Ang (or me, if you so think). That definitely has interesting possibilities.

He does not vote on Day 2, which I find extremely strange. He claims tiredness, which was probably the case, but I would definitely think a wolf would make more effort - unless none of his fellow-wolves were in real danger? A lot of people received votes on Day 2, and only Lalaith and Ang remain unknown... I would think that if he were a wolf, this could argue for their innocence - anyone on that list had the potential to be lynched. It was just too close. Of course, maybe he was just being an apathetic wolf... or something. I don't know what can be drawn from this for sure.

He places suspicion on Morm (innocent) for accusing him of being a wolf - reasoning: different playing style - and Kath (unknown) for overlooking his RL issues. He also points out that wolf-tgwbs is unsuspicious... so just because he's suspicious, he's not a wolf? Eh... His later vote for Morm presumably follows from this.

Foolish, Holbytlass! You would have survived this day - morm got more votes first.

But it is done. Thank you none the less.

Is this comment completely innocent... or, "thank you for revealing yourself..." Could go either way.

He brings up the idea of our innocents leading the voting. It's not a bad suggestion. I could see either a wolf or an innocent making it, though; as I've already pointed out, the innocents don't really know what they're doing... it would be a bit of a risk, though...

We have nothing to lose and everything to gain by allowing them to draw up a shortlist of, say, four people, and voting from that list.

Unless, of course, they were completely wrong... and wolves could still hide in this - chances are, not more than two wolves would show up on these lists - and if he wasn't a lover, then there would be one wolf (albeit one unknown) he wouldn't care to lose. It seems like an innocent idea, but it can be seen otherwise. I don't like his absoluteness about the plan. Basically he says, if you go with it, good, if not, you're suspicious.

Actually, his using of the innocents' ideas for voting would be an easy way for a wolf to hide - even if he voted for an innocent, he could claim he was relying on known innocents. He votes for Gurthang, apparently largely based on their lists. The three he said were most suspicious to him were Gurthang, Rune, and Lalaith - also a good place for a wolf to hide "I'm suspicious of my fellow wolf... but not going to help vote him out" - of course, he smartly (for a wolf) doesn't help Rune really either, in voting for Gurthang. Lalaith already had a vote, while Gurthang didn't. A vote for Gurthang is a much less obvious help... and also a possible wolf-on-wolf vote? Help one, vote for another that doesn't look likely to be lynched?

Suspicions of Gurthang and me; Lalaith and Sauce probably innocent. Vote for Gurthang, putting him in the lead with two votes (Ang and I had one). Okay, maybe wolf-on-wolf isn't so likely. Unless TGWBS was the Lover... that would seem like too obvious a move, though, since his wolves would probably start to figure this out.

ToDay, he points out Caran's dying words to look at me and Gurthang - enforcing his own suspicions with the words of an innocent. Then there's his vote for me, immediately after Sauce's... (with rather poor reasoning, might I add, for having more than 5 Days' worth evidence...) and right after saying Kath is more suspicious.

I'm seriously considering a vote for TGWBS toDay. He seems more suspicious than Sauce right now (I'm having trouble figuring out if I'm more annoyed with or suspicious of him right now... although I'm still considering him for a vote, as well). This took a lot longer than I had anticipated, and now I don't have as much time left to make up my mind, much less check other people out (most of whom posted much more than TGWBS).

[Anguirel]

Firefoot, I can see why from your perspective a revenge vote for Engels would be satisfying, and why it has some substance behind it. However, duels can cause so much more trouble than they're worth...I suspect our Friedrich a bit but not yet enough, I think, to denounce him utterly. His methods are bizarre. ("I suspect Kath. PYOING I'm voting Firefoot anyway".) But almost too bizarre for wolfdom, I feel.

The problem with these feuds is that as they crop up they obscure the clearer picture of gathered evidence of actions. It is on the latter category that I hope to base my vote...coming soon...ish.

[Taliesin]

This day has been more confusing then ever. After today I honestly don't know anyone I can trust in anymore. Firefoot and TGWBS look very likely wolves aswell and I never really had a good feeling about Kath.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Before I start my own analyses, Taliesin being a Lover does make some sense. I have not analysed him myself, so I do not claim I hold this theory, merely that it is logical that a lover-wolf would convince the others to kill Taliesin last.

Yes, it's true. It does make sense. Because of my unfortunate voting record I'm probably the easiest target for the wolves to point out as innocent lover. However, I suspect the wolves' plan all the time was to attempt making one of the known innocents look like that.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I can be here late, so why shouldn't I wait until then to vote? I really don't understand why this is so suspicious.

If you wait until the last minutes before deciding who to vote for, chances are there's a lot of room for a safe vote, which is something a wolf would love to have. I'm not saying that you are a wolf, but it does in a way looks suspicious.

I'm fully expecting to be dead by tomorrow, but I will stick to my main suspicion, which still is The Saucepan Man. I'm sorry if I'm wrong, but you acted exactly how I thought a wolf would act, pointing me out to look like the innocent lover. I must admit I'm a bit cooled down and not that certain of my vote anymore, but how many more innocents must point into the Saucepan Man's direction before we take action?

So...

+ +Saucepan Man.

[Firefoot]

(Assuming I vote for TGWBS, which is not decided), if you think that the only reason I would vote for him is as revenge, you would be wrong. I wouldn't do that. I initially looked at him because of his strange vote, but I wouldn't vote for him because of that. No, I am considering voting for him because he looks rather wolvish.

Firefoot – 2 (Sauce 1, TGWBS 2)
Sauce – 2 (Kath 3, Taliesin 4)