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05-14-2020, 04:26 PM | #1281 |
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Wow, that's giving Boro a lot of power, isn't it? To quote Pitch: *ping*
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05-14-2020, 04:26 PM | #1282 |
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As Lottie pointed out, two of the most pivotal votes for Inzil yesterday. Neat.
Lommy I have felt better about here in the last couple minutes she's been yelling at Boro. Brinn? Hmm.
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05-14-2020, 04:31 PM | #1283 |
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I mean if Boro is a wolf. Day 1 was between (as far as the wolves knew) 2 innocents.
Lommy's reaction makes me feel better about her regardless.
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05-14-2020, 04:31 PM | #1284 | |
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Quote:
So maybe a Ka/Eonwe/Brinn pack makes a lot of sense after all.
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Last edited by Loslote; 05-14-2020 at 04:32 PM. Reason: xed with Eonwe |
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05-14-2020, 04:32 PM | #1285 |
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And how do YOU know that?
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05-14-2020, 04:35 PM | #1286 |
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Updated full vote list
Bold is evil, italics is good.
Day 1 Lhuna -> Lhuna Rikae -> Brinniel G55 -> Rikae Boro -> Pitchwife Urwen -> G55 Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2) Kath -> G55 (2) Shasta -> Pitchwife (2) Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3) Inzil -> G55 (3) Lottie -> G55 (4) Greenie -> Macalaure THE Ka -> Brinniel (3) Eönwë -> Urwen Rune -> Brinniel (4) Lommy -> G55 (5) Huines -> G55 (6) Legate -> Brinn (5) Macalaure -> Brinn (6) Brinniel -> G55 (7) ---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal--- Sally -> Brinn (7) Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point. Day 2 Lommy -> Macalaure Kath -> Inzil Lhuna -> Lommy Macalaure -> Lommy 2 QT -> Brinniel Greenie -> Macalaure 2 Legate -> Huinesoron Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3 Rune -> Loslote Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2 THE Ka -> Loslote 2 Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3 Loslote -> Huinesoron 4 Sally -> Macalaure 4 Inzil -> Macalaure 5 Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5 Brinn -> Huinesoron 6 Boro -> Mac 6 Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7 Shasta -> Mac Day 3 THE Ka -> Sally QT -> Brinn Eönwë -> Sally 2 Kath -> Inzil Greenie -> Sally 3 Lommy -> Sally 4 --- Sally Hunter reveal--- Inzil -> Brinn 2 Lottie -> Sally 5 Lalaith -> Sally 6 Legate -> Sally 7 Shasta -> Sally 8 Brinn -> Sally 9 Rune -> Inzil 2 Boro -> Sally 10 Pitch -> Eonwe Day 4 Lhuna -> Eönwë Eönwë -> Boro QT -> Lhuna Inzil -> Lommy Lottie -> Boro 2 Greenie -> Zil The Ka -> Lhuna 2 Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2 Lalaith -> Lhuna 3 Lommy -> Lhuna 4 Rune -> Eönwë 3 Kath -> Lhuna 5 Shasta -> Lhuna 6 Boro -> Eönwë 4 Brinn -> Lhuna 7 Day 5 QT -> Rune Kath -> Inzil Greenie -> Inzil 2 Shasta -> THE Ka Eönwë -> Rune 2 Boro -> Eönwë Inzil -> Rune 3 Lommy -> Inzil 3 Lottie -> Rune 4 Brinn -> Inzil 4 Rune -> Inzil 5 Pitch -> Inzil 6 THE Ka -> Shasta
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05-14-2020, 04:36 PM | #1287 | |
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Quote:
The logical conclusion is the opposite, unless Boro is a wolf himself. And if he was a wolf, I don't think it would say much? If Boro is an innocent and he didn't get killed for a seerish post that listed me and Brinn as the most innocent and you as the most suspicious, then I would think it rather points at either me or Brinn being guilty or you being innocent? I know I'm innocent and I'm pretty suspicious of you, so this leads me to suspecting Brinn. (Whom I thought was most likely innocent but tbh I might have been a little muddled up by operating on the assumption she was "seer!Boro"'s other known innocent. ) But I'm really in a bit of a loop here because logic says I should reconsider Eönwë but then again he made that slip which implied he knows me and Brinn are innocent and sdfghjklkjh. Okay. One of Eönwë and Brinn surely is a wolf?? Unless plot twist it's Boro after all? Guess what guys? I'm going to sleep....... edit: xed with 1283 and onwards
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05-14-2020, 04:36 PM | #1288 |
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Also, if Borowolf suspected the Cuties were just echoing his vote, that means he could have single handedly steered the entire living thread every single Day. If he was actually a wolf, why would he EVER give up that kind of power???
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Last edited by Loslote; 05-14-2020 at 04:36 PM. Reason: xed with Lommy |
05-14-2020, 04:36 PM | #1289 |
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As in, if Boro was a wolf, that was the slip that Lalaith picked up on. See her first post:
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05-14-2020, 04:37 PM | #1290 |
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Presumably he thought he would be better served by 'coming out' about why he was pretending to be the seer.
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05-14-2020, 04:38 PM | #1291 |
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Why pretend to be the Seer at all? If he thinks the Cuties are echoing him, and he proved yesterDay that we will absolutely follow the Cuties, then he could have just tested that quietly. He didn't need to draw attention to himself or the situation, he could have just continued to quietly steer the village.
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05-14-2020, 04:40 PM | #1292 |
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DID EÖNWË AGAIN SLIP HE KNOWS BRINN IS INNOCENT?
(or has he given up and is fabricating wolf slips to make packmate Brinn look good at this point??) edit: xed, okay I see not. Yeah I need to sleep.
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05-14-2020, 04:41 PM | #1293 | |
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Quote:
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05-14-2020, 04:43 PM | #1294 |
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Again, if Boro is a wolf, then Day 1 was between two innocents.
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05-14-2020, 04:44 PM | #1295 | |
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Quote:
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05-14-2020, 04:45 PM | #1296 |
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Parting thought: we certainly need a new communication mode with the QTs toDay. Prudent subject of discussion would be: what.
I'm a little bummed out that we were basically following Boro's suggestions, not the dead innocents'. But it did get us Lhuna. Which would be the most evil wolf-on-wolf in history btw if Boro is a wolf, because seriously what better way to gain our trust. But yeah. Perhaps Borowolf would rather have toned down the seer hints (so that he wouldn't eventually have to explain to his fellow villagers like he did toDay) and concentrated on excercising his power over the QT. Anyway wolf or innocent, I think we can all agree Boro is absolutely eeevil.
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05-14-2020, 04:59 PM | #1297 |
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Thoughts as I return to work for a bit:
Whether or not the Zil-lynch yesterDay was orchestrated by the wolves (will need to look into who got it to happen), what was shown is that the village can be pushed to ignore the innocent QT's vote. This is bad. For this reason, even if Rune is innocent, there is probably at least one wolf in the Zil-waggon (if Rune is innocent, possibly early on, if not, potentially also later), in the posts arguing to ignore/mistrust the QT vote, and/or of pushing for B]Zil[/B] as a vote-candidate. I suspect more than one, but off the top of my head I don't know who is in these categories. I think it is a top priority of the wolves to discredit an innocent-led QT that has led to the quarantining of one of their fellows.
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05-14-2020, 05:09 PM | #1298 | ||
Laconic Loreman
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T
I feel like needing to hide from Lommy for a moment.
Anyway I feel like you're someone I have a pretty good read on as I said from the start your flip-flopping reads like an actual argument with yourself I can imagine when you're innocent. When you're a wolf it's like since you already know guilt or innocent you force yourself to come up with a reason to flip-flop. I don't know other way to say it other than it doesn't look natural. A few times I reconsidered. The main one your first post after sally's lynch I said wasn't particularly helpful. But at that point I was more sure Lhuna's clean voting record was suspicious. Then when she turned out wolf I thought I'd just go for it and give the plan a try for the day. In the end seer is still alive, so maybe it didn't work as I had intended, but to some extent it did. Since it didn't work fully as I intended, I thought there's no point in trying to do it again today. Especially considering a fickle group that waits too long to get the QT vote before the action starts. Unless Rune's actually is a wolf then maybe it did more harm than good? I don't know, after still being alive I just didn't want the QT thinking I was the seer because we're getting down to the nitty-gritty where odd plans aren't worth the risk. And it was better to get it out now instead of waiting for the QT vote. In an effort to move on...I stand by this from yesterday: Quote:
I'm rather torn with Eonwe at the moment. He was the one I was pegging down as a wolf, and the fact that my plan to be night-killed didn't happen makes me think that he's not. I jumped on him for his defense of his vote for Rune, because of the QT vote. Same reasons I'm suspicious of The Ka, her vote for Lhuna was a "well the QT says so." Eonwe replied he'd been suspicious of Rune for days: Quote:
The single funniest comment of the game was when Mac said something about apparently Eonwe could be convinced to lynch half the village. Which I thought was accurate, so maybe technically you can claim you were suspicious of Rune since the beginning. But he didn't seem like one of your primary considerations until the QT vote yesterday. Edit: cross posting with a bunch
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05-14-2020, 09:29 PM | #1299 |
Reflection of Darkness
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Geez people, you're making my head spin!
Boro - I just don't know what to think of him and all of this. Part of me wants to think him innocent, but honestly, it could go either way. I'm rather bummed over the results of Inzil's lynching. I really thought I was right about him and now knowing his innocence has made me realize I need to rethink some people. One of which being Kath, who I felt okay about mainly due to the fact that I agreed with her suspicions and now I'm not so sure. Lottie I'm also less sure about. I've initially thought her more innocent due to her Hui vote and the fact that she voted Sally when she could possibly be hunting her. But I can't discount the possibility Lottie could be a very bold wolf. Anyway, I think it less likely that she and Boro are both wolves.
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05-14-2020, 10:09 PM | #1300 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Quote:
Note: It does not include quotes or references directly from any day prior to Day 5. This list took me nearly two hours to compile and fix for formatting, so if you want anything earlier you'll have to go do your own data hunting, sorry. Zil-votes Day 5: Kath – Inzil Greenie – Inzil Lommy – Inzil Brinn – Inzil Rune – Inzil *Pitch – Inzil *Selected by wolves, Night 6. Villager, Non-gifted. Previously suspected to point of voting on prior Days: Brinn, Rune. Opinion of QT vote Day 5: Ignore/Mistrust or Follow: Kath - #1097: Quote:
Quote:
#1109: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only apologises for forgetting to put ‘fake vote’ choices in previous post and resumes doing so. #1120: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. No indirect mention of QT. #1149: Vote-post. Mention of QT: Quote:
- No further posts for Day 5 - Greenie - #1057: Some mention of previous QT vote in regard to timing from other players of personal votes. Makes note of when players have voted before or after QT vote, specifically in Pitch and Rune analysis. #1086: Quote:
#1092: Quote:
#1169: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. - No further posts for Day 5 - Lommy – #1053: In reply to quote from Zil: Quote:
#1066: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1067: Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
#1091: Quote:
#1101: Quote:
#1102: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1112: Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
#1140: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. -POST QT Day Vote- #1152: Mentions surprise at Rune QT vote. Plans to go back and check Rune’s posts for possible answers. #1155: Reply to Pitch about Lhuna deciding QT vote. Sides with quite unlikely, only if innocents in QT made a mess. #1160: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1194: Quote:
#1196: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1198: Quote:
#1202: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only analysis of Rune past posts. #1205: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1209: Vote-post. Quote:
- No further posts Day 5 - Brinn - #1056: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1076: Quote:
#1119: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Gives ‘fake-vote(s)’. -POST QT Day Vote- #1154: Quote:
#1215,1231: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. - No further posts Day 5 - Rune - #1095: Quote:
#1096: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1098: Gives ‘fake-vote’. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. -POST QT Day Vote- #1163: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1179: Reply to Zil, doesn’t believe QT-vote could be correct twice, but understands why they would say such. Quote:
#1193: Quote:
Quote:
#1214: Reply to Loslote’s reasoning for voting along with QT vote for Day over previous suspicions of Ka. #1217: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1224: Quote:
- No further posts Day 5 - *Pitch – (For reference): #1055: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1059: Quote:
Quote:
#1071: Quote:
#1118: Quote:
#1127: Gives ‘fake-vote’. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. -POST QT Day Vote- #1150: Quote:
#1157: Quote:
#1171: Quote:
#1181: Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
#1219: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. #1239: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. - No further posts Day 5 - I haven't checked the thread since two hours ago, so if any of this has been answered, I apologise again. On that and with a long day tomorrow, I'm going to sleep.
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05-14-2020, 10:17 PM | #1301 |
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Back briefly. Just realised that I forgot to go back and add the newly-known innocents to my previous vote list. So here it is again, fixed:
Bold is evil, italics is good. Day 1 Lhuna -> Lhuna Rikae -> Brinniel G55 -> Rikae Boro -> Pitchwife Urwen -> G55 Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2) Kath -> G55 (2) Shasta -> Pitchwife (2) Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3) Inzil -> G55 (3) Lottie -> G55 (4) Greenie -> Macalaure THE Ka -> Brinniel (3) Eönwë -> Urwen Rune -> Brinniel (4) Lommy -> G55 (5) Huines -> G55 (6) Legate -> Brinn (5) Macalaure -> Brinn (6) Brinniel -> G55 (7) ---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal--- Sally -> Brinn (7) Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point. Day 2 Lommy -> Macalaure Kath -> Inzil Lhuna -> Lommy Macalaure -> Lommy 2 QT -> Brinniel Greenie -> Macalaure 2 Legate -> Huinesoron Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3 Rune -> Loslote Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2 THE Ka -> Loslote 2 Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3 Loslote -> Huinesoron 4 Sally -> Macalaure 4 Inzil -> Macalaure 5 Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5 Brinn -> Huinesoron 6 Boro -> Mac 6 Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7 Shasta -> Mac Day 3 THE Ka -> Sally QT -> Brinn Eönwë -> Sally 2 Kath -> Inzil Greenie -> Sally 3 Lommy -> Sally 4 --- Sally Hunter reveal--- Inzil -> Brinn 2 Lottie -> Sally 5 Lalaith -> Sally 6 Legate -> Sally 7 Shasta -> Sally 8 Brinn -> Sally 9 Rune -> Inzil 2 Boro -> Sally 10 Pitch -> Eonwe Day 4 Lhuna -> Eönwë Eönwë -> Boro QT -> Lhuna Inzil -> Lommy Lottie -> Boro 2 Greenie -> Zil The Ka -> Lhuna 2 Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2 Lalaith -> Lhuna 3 Lommy -> Lhuna 4 Rune -> Eönwë 3 Kath -> Lhuna 5 Shasta -> Lhuna 6 Boro -> Eönwë 4 Brinn -> Lhuna 7 Day 5 QT -> Rune Kath -> Inzil Greenie -> Inzil 2 Shasta -> THE Ka Eönwë -> Rune 2 Boro -> Eönwë Inzil -> Rune 3 Lommy -> Inzil 3 Lottie -> Rune 4 Brinn -> Inzil 4 Rune -> Inzil 5 Pitch -> Inzil 6 THE Ka -> Shasta
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05-14-2020, 11:50 PM | #1302 |
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Concrete thoughts on each living player
I haven't really had a chance to collect my thoughts on each person left, and given the last two Days, it looks like I probably should start reassessing everyone. So I'm skimming over my old posts in the thread to see if there's anything I've forgotten/need to follow up on now that we know more. These are the concrete thoughts I've mentioned in the thread about about reasons people looked good or bad (more than just feelings/vibes/sub-radar location) that are still relevant:
Thinlómien
Loslote
Kath
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin Good:
Topics not included above:
Ok, what does this tell me? I've definitely had too much tunnel-vision. I need to reassess everyone.
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05-15-2020, 12:23 AM | #1303 |
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Ok, let's analyse the votes day-by-day:
Day 1 We can only tell anything if Brinn turns out to be evil, otherwise it's three (as far as the wolves knew at least) innocents. If Brinn is evil, then THE Ka could theoretically be trying a kind-of-dangerous-but-not-too-dangerous wolf-on-wolf. All non-Brinn voters other than Brinn herself (Boro, Kath, Shasta, Lottie, Greenie, me, Lommy) could also theoretically be suspicious too. So if Brinn is evil, only Rune really looks good. Summary: if Brinn is evil, Rune looks good. Day 2 Lhuna's relatively safe vote for Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf. Greenie's vote for Mac could've been a way to protect Lommy or Brinn if Greenie and at least one of them is evil. If Lottie is evil, Rune and THE Ka's votes could be safe 'throwaway' wolf-on-wolf votes to come back to later. If she's good and Mac interest seemed to be waning (I seem to remember Sally's at least came suddenly), it could have been a late attempt to start a counterwaggon to Hui's Boro's vote directly allowed for a chance to save Hui. Lottie's Hui vote could have been semi-dangerous wolf-on-wolf, but is admittedly a bit risky. Probably the only really suspicious vote this Day was Boro's, and to a lesser extent the Lottie-voters (Rune and THE Ka) - the rest are a lot more speculative. Summary: Bad vote from Boro, kind-of-bad votes from Rune and THE Ka. Day 3 Hard to tell disentangle this mess. Wolves could easily hide among Sally voters. Sally voters after the reveal (Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro) are more suspicious than before (THE Ka, me, Greenie, Lommy). Rune's late vote looks kind of throwaway, and may have been planted as a way to bring back Zil suspicion in future (as a I mentioned previously, it looked like the Zil vote was semi-planned). Kath's was earlier, so it was still possible to quarantine him at that point. Summary: Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro, and Rune are a little suspicious based on this. Day 4 Non-Lhuna voters after the QT vote are generally more suspicious: Lottie, Greenie, Rune, Boro , with Rune and Boro looking the worst of these (really trying to keep Lhuna from being quarantined). The only Lhuna-voter that could have been hiding is Brinn - that's the first Lhuna vote where her fate was already sealed. Summary: Rune and Boro especially bad, followed by Lottie, Greenie, and Brinn. Day 5 Hard to analyze. I'm still pretty suspicious of anyone who didn't vote Rune, but we know at least one innocent did that so (and clearly there aren't 5 wolves left), so I'll have to think about it.
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05-15-2020, 12:25 AM | #1304 |
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Correction: in my post #1302, the seer thing was clearly meant to be Bad and go under Boro.
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05-15-2020, 01:55 AM | #1305 |
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I am not going to pretend that I understand the fine details of Boromir’s interaction with the QT thread, but I am inclined to believe his “reveal”. Personally I thought there was a chance he was the seer (i definitely had no better leads), so I decided to steer clear of him for a while and focus attention elsewhere. Reading Lommy's post I realise that there are better ways to help a potential seer. I was wondering why he kind of turned on me yesterday, as he had mostly seen me in a favorable light, but I ended up concluding that if he was the seer then he had yet to dream of me.
If he is right that QT followed his hints, then how would the known innocents have kept their trust in him a secret from the infected? Is there something I am missing? I have briefly skimmed through the posts, and nothing much has really changed my perspective. As I might have mentioned yesterday, I don’t think I am capable of imagining a scenario where Eönwë isn’t a wolf. |
05-15-2020, 03:46 AM | #1306 | |||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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I've finally caught up on everything that happened yesterDay and toDay! From now on, if I say someone looks blatantly wolfish, please lay off them as they’re probably innocent.
Overall general impressions? Lommy's reaction to Boro makes her look very innocent. (Also I can relate.) THE Ka is probably my best lead where possible wolves are concerned. I'm re-evaluating Rune, too. I need to do some further thinking re: Boro and Eonwe as both give me a headache. So starting from yesterDay - Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Re: Rune. If Boro is right and the Cuties only voted for Rune because they thought Boro was the Seer, the information value of the QT vote is somewhat diminished. That said, it also doesn't automatically mean that Rune is off the hook, either. I found this point by Lommy noteworthy, regardless of the actual motivation behind the QT vote: Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
And that's all I've got from yesterDay. I picked out quite a bit to comment on from toDay as well, but that'll have to wait - I'm currently on sick leave because I can't sit in front of the computer for longer than about 15 minutes at a time so this post took a few hours to write. I'll come back and continue in a while!
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05-15-2020, 04:55 AM | #1307 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
I will say the stand out day was really Day 4 with Lhuna's lynched. Day 1 Chaos DL, cobbler lynched Day 2 chaos DL, wolf lynched Day 3, chaos hunter, sally lynched Day 4 was the stand out...it was our most orderly and organized lynch. That was also the first day the QT was in control of the innocents. It suggests, that perhaps the wolves did decide to bus Lhuna, because it had such a completely different feel than Huey's lynch.
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05-15-2020, 05:01 AM | #1308 |
Laconic Loreman
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Oh and I must be away for several hours...slowly reopening is killing my mood of staying home for the last 2 months.
+-THE Ka I'm torn with Eonwe's blood thirst in this game. It seems like he can be convinced to lynch half the village. At the same time he was the one I was really sending "dreamed wolf" of clues on and if he was I would have expected my plan to work. So, I'll go with other option today, because of how orderly Lhuna's lynch was and when I read Ka's reasons for voting Lhuna it boiled down to "because the QT said so" but she didn't add any further suspicions to Lhuna.
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05-15-2020, 05:46 AM | #1309 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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I gotta admit Boro's non-reveal sort of triggered a werewolf fatigue in me, I hate to be back to square one again. But I will try. ToDay and toMorrow are crucial Days, and I hope our brave seer is dabbling in maths as well as clairvoyance. But as long as they are in hiding, we have to use our little gray cells.
I am a bit reluctant to start untangling the whole Boro-Eönwë-Brinn mess, because frankly it makes me a little uncomfortable. I am really tempted to ignore deeper implications of recent events and go with my general feeling of Boro and Brinn being innocent and Eönwë being guilty, but I'm not sure this is a wise course of action. The rest of the village? I still think Lottie is innocent, Greenie seems pretty good to me too, and I am a bit hesitant to jump on the Rune suspicion because I don't have much good reasons to suspect him and it sort of looks too easy? Meaning, (if Boro is right which it looks like he is), the whole Rune suspicion arose because he signaled the QT about him and they responded because they trusted him, not because they distrusted Rune. Granted, we have maybe collectively been giving Rune too much of a pass, but the new wave of suspicion is on really flimsy grounds. Lots of room for brain farts here. Kath and Shasta? Neither of them looks super guilty to me, but neither do they look super innocent. I guess that if my innocent list in the above paragraph is correct, then it's very likely one of them is a wolf. Which one? Who knows. THE Ka I think a very likely wolf because like I keep saying, her "disconnected" playing style strikes me as fishy, and so are her connections to the dead wolves. Like there is nothing glaringly obvious all in all, but it's more like a process of elimination. We still have three wolves left and I have hard time imagining a scenario where Ka is NOT one of them. Therefore as it stands I would vote +-THE Ka Also my suggestion for the QTs for toDay: ignore Boro and just vote whoever you think is suspicious. I think we need a little help here. PS. I have skimmed through/ quickly read the discussion that happened while I was gone. I will likely get back to it at some point toDay but now it's a whole lot of EURGH I CAN'T DEAL WITH THIS for me. (Yes I still want to smack Boro a little, but I guess I will forgive him if he's innocent. If he's not then )
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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05-15-2020, 06:08 AM | #1310 | |
Everlasting Whiteness
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What is with this village and Gifted's? Fake reveals, real reveals, reveals of fake-ness. I'm not sure I understand even half of what Boro is claiming to have been doing with his Seer act. You suggested Rune because you didn't think he was suspicious and just wanted to see whether the QT would follow your lead? And then the wolves would think you were the Seer because if Rune was a wolf, they'd think you'd spotted him, and if Rune wasn't a wolf ... what, you'd just not dreamed of him then? But the wolves didn't go after you, so Pitch must have looked more Seer-ish. That said, I've read through Lommy's Pitch-alysis and I have to largely agree. There didn't seem to be much there that would indicate him being a Gifted and seemingly being vital for them to kill.
And now Rune is in the midst of all this. I want to see if Boro is actually right that no one else really put him up as a candidate prior to the QT vote yesterDay, and therefore the QT must have been following his ideas. I feel like the last time I really saw Rune properly discussed before all this was in the context of Legate possibly having been killed for Seer-ish vibes, but I'd ended up feeling quite good about him as a result of that, so I need to go back and look at it. Also, I don't understand this: Quote:
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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05-15-2020, 06:51 AM | #1311 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Trying to unpick Boro.
So first off – I only made one note yesterDay while reading the thread. This is what it says: Boro Seer-hinting/slipping (note to self: if Boro still alive but not revealing toMorrow, have a closer look) My immediate reaction to his non-reveal (I love that word btw) was that he’s innocent. I still think that’s the more likely scenario, but I also don’t think I can afford to trust anyone, especially someone like Boro who could totally pull a stunt like this whatever his role, and especially given my impressive track record of being wrong in this game so far. So. Starting point: I think whatever his role, Boro is probably telling the truth about pretending to be the Seer, doing some testing and realising the QT think so too. But beyond this – Scenario 1 – Boro is innocent. This does look exactly like something a Borordo would do. But as noted above, it’s pretty curious that he’s still alive. We’re getting to a point where the wolves really, really have no option but the gun for the Seer, so even if the wolves were inclined to think he was bluffing, it would be really bold of them not to eliminate him just to be safe. So if he isn’t a wolf himself, the only other feasible explanation (in my head at least) is that he was so blatantly wrong in his hints about someone that the wolves knew he wasn’t the Seer. So for example if Lommy is a wolf, they would know Boro wasn’t the real Seer. Likewise if Eonwe is innocent. Scenario 2 – Boro is a wolf. Possible, if with some reservations. The starting point – pretending to be the Seer, gaining the trust of the QT, and rolling with it – would definitely be a possibility even if Boro is a wolf. Lommy mentioned phantom-esque double bluff ploys, and I actually don’t have a problem imagining Boro pulling off something like that. That said, there are a few issues with this theory. Most obviously, why would he come out now instead of pressing his advantage and continuing to manipulate the QT? My immediate thought would be that a Borolf would keep going with the charade as long as we let him, then come out with an actual reveal if he started being suspected and try to draw the real Seer out in the process. Possibly he thought he’d come under fire about not being Night-killed, and wanted to avoid it getting that far – especially if this implicated a fellow. Coming out like this does make him look pretty innocent, and as long as we don’t lynch him, we won’t get anything definite about the fellow he was trying to protect, either. Additionally, following up on Lottie’s point about how Eonwe challenging Boro toDay looks like an attempt to distract from himself – if they are fellows, this would be a masterstroke. All we’re doing is talking about Boro, and most people seem inclined to believe him – and his innocence would also make Eonwe appear innocent. Meanwhile, they are sufficiently suspicious of each other so this doesn’t look too buddy-buddy. -- I still think scenario 1 is more likely, but I managed to make scenario 2 sound like such an awesome stroke of evil genius that I’ll be almost disappointed if it’s not true Regardless, I’d be tempted to draw a simplistic conclusion that Boro and Eonwe are on the same side. That is, either they’re both innocent or both guilty. I’m leaning towards both innocent at the moment, but reserve the right to change my mind.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
05-15-2020, 07:05 AM | #1312 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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It is true that it's hard to see why Borowolf wouldn't follow through and reveal as the seer.
Think about it. He has laid the perfect grounds for it for Days, he has plenty of material to point to in order to back up his claim. He has been making loud enough seer hints that he could hope a few innocents would be partial to his reveal on the spot. Especially if he revealed before the actual seer came forth? I think he might be initially believed far more than the real seer. Wait I'm thinking and maybe I'll do a legate180 -- What if Borowolf was setting himself up for a fake seer reveal the whole time?? And then toDay, he chickened out for some reason, and decided to claim he's an ordo trying to fake to be the seer? Maybe because if he made his seer claim toDay and there was a counter claim from the real seer, even if we believed him and lynched the real seer, we could bag a wolf toMorrow by lynching him. While maybe he figured that he can't wait until toMorrow to make the claim after his parting post yesterDay which was going to look fishy otherwise. I mean, it is important for the wolves that we lynch an innocent both toDay and toMorrow. Then they win. If we lynch a wolf on one of those Days, the game continues still. A fake seer reveal might start looking like a worse choice than just crossing their fingers that the actual seer hasn't dreamt of any wolves?
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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05-15-2020, 07:17 AM | #1313 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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More jumbled thoughts
Hmm. On the other hand, if Boro and Eönwë were both wolves, don't you think Boro would be pressing the "my not-death proves I was wrong about Eönwë" angle a little harder toDay?
Also if "suspecting Eönwë" is the question on which Boro's lack of getting Night killed supposedly hinges on, then why is the one who actually died Pitchwife who *dramatic drumroll* suspected Eönwë?? And why is virtually nobody talking about the fact that Boro "not getting killed" could be just as well about being wrong about his supposed "known innocents" ie me and Brinn? Why is Boro not second guessing his trust in us if he's innocent? I think the only thing I'm certain of is that there is no way in hell that all of Boro, Eönwë and Brinn are innocent. But that's not very much to go on.
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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05-15-2020, 07:43 AM | #1314 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." Last edited by A Little Green; 05-15-2020 at 07:44 AM. Reason: typo |
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05-15-2020, 07:56 AM | #1315 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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While we're tossing ideas around -
What's going on with Brinn? She's still playing pretty safe and uncontroversial. The best arguments for her innocence (as far as I can tell) have to do with her role in the Huin lynch; she voted for Lhuna, too, but only after she was already a goner so this doesn't give us much. The other argument for Brinn's innocence is how evil QT voted for her twice and then good QT laid off her. Though if good QT's choices have been informed by fake-Seer Boro, the likely reason they dropped her is because they saw the "Seer" hinting at her innocence, not because they'd have some evidence about her innocence that we don't (ie. dead Huinwolf's posts). The only thing we can get out of the QT turning away from voting Brinn is that if she is indeed Huin's fellow and the early QT votes for her an effort to make her look better, he at least managed this without slipping about her role in the QT.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
05-15-2020, 08:50 AM | #1316 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Quote:
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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05-15-2020, 09:31 AM | #1317 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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A list, simplified:
Could be a wolf: Ka Eonwe Brinn Shasta Probably not a wolf: Boro Rune Probably innocent: Lottie Lommy Greenie Kath Now, this is bold, and I am fully willing to admit that I could be wrong to put some of the players that I did in the probably innocent category - but I feel very confident that our three wolves are among the four players in the could be a wolf category. I'll also add that I don't suspect Shasta, I just think that he's the person I'm most possibly wrong about, and so if I'm wrong about any of my three main suspects, he's the person I would then look at. I would be willing to vote for any of Ka, Eonwe, or Brinn today, but for the Cuties: +- Ka
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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05-15-2020, 09:44 AM | #1318 |
Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.
So my suspects for toDay: Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed. Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf. I don't like how quiet it is right now. Unfortunately, I have a business meeting scheduled for the last two hours of the Day, so at maximum, I might be able to slip in a vote, but you'll see little else from me. For now, my vote would go to +-Ka.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
05-15-2020, 09:52 AM | #1319 | |
Odinic Wanderer
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Quote:
Anyways for reasons previously stated. +- Eönwë I might cast an early vote today, as I am not certain I can be around for deadline. |
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05-15-2020, 10:03 AM | #1320 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Quote:
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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