Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Brinniel]

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

[Pitchwife]

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

Oh my. Thank you. Yeah that could have turned out screwing up my timeline

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, I've stolen a little more time on the actual computer to read over "Phase 2" (people's comments on the G55/Legate/Pitch debate). Note that this does not mean I no longer suspect Pitch, G55, and Lommy (in no particular order); just that I'm consciously examining the rest of the village too. (I'm also not highlighting every post that's part of "Phase 2"; just the ones that jump out at me.)

I think Phase Two starts around #52, when Macalaure considers Legate cobblerish, but the first post that jumps out is Rikae, #69, which asserts that:

Originally Posted by Rikae

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

... which, putting those side by side, is actually straight-up wrong. Mac suggested the possibility of Legate-Wolf, but mostly came down on cobbler.

Hang on, didn't I see the number #69 on the current page? Right, yes, G55 caught it in #156. Which I guess suggests that a Rikae-G55 pack is unlikely?

Interestingly, I think this is also the first post to suspect Macalaure, which puts Rikae doubly in my 'worrisome' category. We'll see where it goes.

#71: Brinniel suggests there could be 'no wolves involved' in the fake-vote discussion, then says she's wary of both Pitch and G55. Not a very consistent position, but useful if Legate seemed in need of protection.

#72: G55 catches the error ('error'?) in #69, but presents it in a joking manner, so it doesn't really get picked up.

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post). It's also a really convenient way to either make an innocent look bad without coming on too strong, or to make a fellow wolf look good without seeming like you're on their side. So it says nothing about Legate, but something about Lommy.

#81: Conveniently at the top of page 3, Kath lays out Phase 1 almost precisely (she stops with Mac's post that I see as the start of Phase 2). I think this post will be a oft-used reference for Phase 1, if we wind up still discussing it after toDay (I believe it's the 'evolutionary' post Legate later refers to). She mostly sticks to the facts, so it's hard to get a read off her here.

#91: Lommy. Not particularly striking for its Phase 2 content, but for the 'I would definitely play up my flipflopping if I were a wolf' she gave to me. I'm afraid I dropped the ball on this one - I'd forgotten what I said by the time I saw what she said, so I just took 'that's a fair point' and moved on. It's really making me suspicious right now.

#95: Kitanna discusses a Galadriwolf or PitchWolf, but interestingly doesn't suggest a pack. She does seem to suggest G55 and Rikae as a pack with this:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

*side eyes both [G55 & Rikae]* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.

She could be a wolf using this to pile suspicion on G55? I'm not strongly suspicious of this one, though.

#97: Mac finds Legate suspicious for going after all his accusers. This could be a slightly dodgy claim (I feel like going after anyone who accuses you is pretty classic Werewolf), but it doesn't worry me overmuch.

#98 & #100: Pitch continues to suspect Legate, but also pitches (sorry) in on Mac. Still thinking about how this interacts with G55's interactions with Rikae, who also suspected Mac.

#104: Kitanna suspects a wolf in the GLP, but can't decide who. Really interestingly, she says she didn't suspect Legate until #88 - but her previous post was #95, where she didn't mention this suspicion. Cross-posting is possible, I guess?

#109: Kath. It looks like Phase 2 might be winding up, as she's starting to analyse interactions from it (Mac and Pitch).

#113: Boro discusses Legate-Wolf, but is pretty non-committal. Could be seen as a light defence of wolf-Legate? Or as a light attack on innocent-Legate? But nothing overly strong.

I think that's the bulk of Phase 2. I'm dubious about Rikae, but the one who jumps out at me is Lommy. I've had... three or four different suspicions of her at this point, I think? I'm still worried about Pitch, and to an extent G55 (but mostly by association with PitchWolf, unless I'm forgetting something), but Lommy is at the top of my list.

Right, checking the last few posts to see what's changed...

Okay, G55 reminds of that odd 'hey what if this specific scenario happened, would I still be a wolf winner?' question, so I guess I do have something else on her. Mac points out that Rikae's misrepresentation of him could be a simple mistake (I think someone's misattributed something to me somewhere, though I can't find it), which does make G55's continued pulling on the thread somewhat sketchy.

There's a lot of suspicion on Brinn in the last few posts (I see Rikae, Pitch, and Loslote), which seems to have come a bit out of nowhere. Did it build over the course of page 4? Ah, looks like it did, including G55's comment that Brinn 'seems to post without leaving any impression'. That tallies with what I'm getting, but I've not gotten any impression that she's up to something.

... but Lommy has, as maybe the third or fourth person to cast suspicion on her (in #144 she dedicates her longest paragraph to contrasting her with Eonwe).

Okay, I should be able to actually-vote later, and in the event that we see a G55/Pitch vs Legate breakdown I will vote for one of the former, but for now my not-vote sits on +-Lommy.

hS

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

Where did she first voice suspicion of Kitanna, I must have missed it.

She mentions Inzil, Pitchwife and G55 early on, sticks with Inzil for a while and then switches to Kitanna in her latest post #168.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

Bah. "Keep an eye on" is not a moniker I'm comfortable with in terms of being vague.

[A Little Green]

I had a quick look at Kitanna. I don't really get a nervous or on-edge vibe from her like some others have said. She does seem quite quick to low-level suspect - early on she says Lhuna is suspicious for explicitly not posting anything of content when there would already have been stuff to comment on; she speculates on Gal and Rikae being potential wolf-on-wolf (this was before it developed into an all-out war) and suspects Gal for her reaction to the fake-vote-plan debacle and for being too helpful, speculates on Pitch being an opportunistic wolf for his role in said debacle, and says Legate seems the most innocent of the trio but thinks his list post is suspicious.

I don't necessarily think this amounts to suspicious behaviour from Kitanna - she definitely started suspecting people (using that actual word) earlier than most, and has used it of more people than most, but if anything it makes me feel better about her. A wolf might want to appear more consistent, or less confrontational. My current vibe is more of an ordo stirring the pot and voicing early bad vibes in order to get discussion going.

The only thing I was wary of was her argument that there is likely to be a wolf in the Pitch-Gal-Legate -trio - as others have pointed out, there's no basis for this really but it would be a very convenient idea for a wolf to advocate.

In sum, not convinced either way but leaning more innocent than not.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that?

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

I don't recall what Mac said...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. It was just an observation I made as looked back at several posts referring to you. And yes I still do find you on the slightly suspicious side, but I don't think enough to vote you. G55's exchange with Rikae makes me more inclined to think her innocent (seems like a squabble between two innocents really).

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again?

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

This, I want more context on this.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This, I want more context on this.

Which part of it?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Which part of it?

Mentioned it just now in my shameless piggybacking of Greenie's read post, because I am tired.

[A Little Green]

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself

Not my idea of fun, and I tried to avoid it. Please don't call me "lady".

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post).

Heyyyy guess what I'm gonna stop calling it flipflopping now and start calling it looking at both sides of issues. For instance:

Legate starts talking about Gal55's "fake vote" plan seriously*
Pros: gets the ball rolling, starts the actual debate toDay (as opposed to mere banter) - and for this it really doesn't matter WHAT the discussion is about
Cons: as it's a somewhat unrealistic suggestion and not a plan that would really work out and merit a closer look, it's not something we should be stuck debating

* I always read Gal's original suggestion (that was a no-lynch plan unlike Legate's) as tongue in cheek, and I was under the impression Gal confirmed this?

Okay hopefully that's the very last thing from me both about the nature of flip-flopping and on how the fake vote discussion started rolling, because it's high time to move on.

~*~

That being said, I also wanted to move on from G55 BUT how can you when she's stirring up new drama right in front of our eyes? The whole spat with Rikae seems a little off to me. Reminds me of what Greenie said about wolves being consistent with their suspicion instead of changing their opinion upon new developments - anyone who's too certain about anything on Day1 makes me raise eyebrows.

~*~

Lottie's few last posts seem very level-headed to me, so I feel a bit better about her.

Boro's defence of his playing style toDay? Fair enough, I think, but he's still on my suspicion list.

I might have a quick look at Rune and Kitanna's posts to try pinpoint why I feel vaguely suspicious of them. I mean with Kitanna it might be classic playing style clash (which I have with Lottie too and to an extent Brinn - I wanted to say her very benevolent reaction to suspicion towards her rubbed me the wrong way but I think she might be like that as innocent too; and now that I'm on the topic maybe Huinesoron would belong to this category too?) but I'm more curious why I got evil vibes from Rune because he's not someone I always suspect on Day1s.


edit: xed with Nog and onwards

[Thinlómien]

Kitanna
#36: Mostly banter. Agrees with me that the deadline hours will be chaotic, but seems to find the idea fun. Disagrees with me, saying that it's quite possible for someone to get suspected/lynched based on early Day1 banter.
#85: Says either Legate's fake vote plan, or Pitch suspecting Legate, could be "innocent villagers stirring up conversation to draw out baddies. Or it could be baddies trying to draw in innocents to pin as guilty later." Ehhhhhhhh?? Mildly suspects Lhuna for underlining her own unhelpfulness. Discusses the merits of lists with Legate. Gets really worked up about the lists and fake votes to a degree that I find confusing while I'm quickly trying to summarise her posts here. Says fake voting would benefit wolves because it easily incriminates innocents who are trying their best? Draws attention to Shasta's self-ironic "That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating."
#95: Wonders if Rikae/Gal is orchestrated wolf-on-wolf, more suspicious G than R. Analyses the fake vote discussion, bringing up G55, Legate and Pitch as the key players, and seems to think their order of suspiciousness is Pitch > Gal > Legate.
#104: Suspects Boro because of his flip-flopping about lists and appearing deeper than he is. Mildly defends Legate against Mac's accusation, but does a legate180 because Legate's post #88 strikes her as fish, mostly tone-wise.

Conclusion: Now that I've read her posts, I feel better about Kitanna. I disagree with her conclusions a lot, but her thought processes seem like an innocent person figuring things out.


*

Rune

#84: Mostly disclaimers/banter about the game, most important quote is this: "For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything)." Which sounds a little weird to me, like how would the wolves exploit the fake votes?
#94: Agrees with Hui about stating voting preferences early and that the voting environment will change just before dl. Okay, elaborates on the thing I just found weird by saying that we shouldn't get too fixated on the idea of everyone pre-voting and then punish those who deviate. Fair enough, agreed.
#117: Most worried about G55 who gives him both good and bad vibes. Says he always suspects Eönwë and Lottie, and never suspects Lhuna. Thinks Legate and Pitchwife are reasonable and therefore innocent.
#134: Suspects Eönwë for flipflopping on Legate and Kitanna for the opportunistic jump on Lhuna's post. About the village in general: "For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything)."
#140: Defends Lhuna bc of her having a history of suicidal tendencies. Thinks Urwen made a cobbler hint.
#157: Doesn't entirely buy G55 discrediting his Urwen/cobbler theory.
#179: Asks Lottie about her reasoning for suspecting Brinn because doesn't suspect her himself.
#186: Continues on the topic, correcting Lottie about Brinn's suspicions. I'm too busy to check which one of them has the facts right, but I doubt either of them is lying about this on purpose.

Conclusion: Guess what? He also looks innocent on a closer look. Nothing really stands out as super shady.

Not sure this was a good use for the second to last 30 minutes of the Day, but at least I know two people I'm not voting for unless something drastic happens.

Will be crossing with everyone since my last!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.