WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Rikae]

Careful, Kath, we only have one retractable vote for the whole game.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought I'd be back long before I actually made it back. Pity, that.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

I'll be back with more.

[Loslote]

I don't really have suspicions at this point. Sally had that one post that caught my eye (in the painful, eye's-gone-now kind of way, not in the oh-that's-so-pretty kind of way), but other than that, not much. I can see where people are coming from about Pitchie, but I don't think I would have noticed it on my own, so I'm hesitant to point fingers at him. Mac's big post of postiness was unnerving, but the one game I played with him (at least, I think that's the only game) I thought the same think about innocent!Mac.

But I do have a lot of people who seem reasonably not-evil right now. Agan looks almost too good (I'm oh so used to suspecting her ). Kit looks really innocent so far - probably the most so - but I haven't played with her much, so I can't really be sure. Skip looks decent, in a not-ringing-any-alarms sort of way. Shasta seems rather innocent in a not-wolvish way.'

[Blind Guardian]

So....hi guys!

So, time ends in one hour thirty minutes or by 10AM tomorrow? Sorry, I am still confused. And I am going by BD clock.

I suspect Ozban cause of this:

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)? And why do you want Shasta? Maybe 'cause I remember Shasta was a really good wolf one game past...

Also, I am not voting toNight because I am not going to be back on. (Maybe if the DL is at 10AM tomorrow morning I will, maybe)

e;x with everyone since post 43

[Inziladun]

Lots to digest, here. What are you people trying to do? And I can't even have a Guinness to help me make sense of things.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

I believe I'd concur. We've seen recently that the trails of a dead Seer can be rather untrustworthy. They may clearly lead to a wolf, or, as has already been discussed, they can lead innocents quite astray, eh, Shasta and Pitch?
Also, an inventive Ranger can make things difficult for the wolves, even with the Seer revealed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Never fear, I fully intend to shine the lamp of reason on my fellow prisoners and seek to discriminate fair from foul. But this can only be done if everybody speaks up. As our first Day here has been preternaturally prolonged, we've got lots of time for discussion - let's not waste it with moping about the uselessness of Day One!

I'll probably be accused of latching onto the suspicion on Pitch, but he somewhat bothers me too. This feels a bit forced.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

To which I'd like to add, No BlindGuardianing either, please. She's been the default D1 lynch in her last two games, I'd be very wroth to see that repeated without very good reasons.

Now, I'd agree with this. She has a history of being lynched very early, and I can think of only one occasion where she was evil. I'd be inclined to at least let her make it through Day 1.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If anyone has a dream (either dark or light, makes no difference to me) that needs interpretting, speak up. Dreams can reveal some of the darkest secrets and inner-most secrets.

I had a dream I was eating Frosted Mini Wheats, and when I woke up my pillow was gone.

Originally Posted by Loslote

On to more game-related stuff - knee jerk reaction to the posts so far gives me a good feeling about Boro and Pitchie and a not-quite-as-good feeling about Sally. The other people I didn't get much of an impression from. (Normal disclaimer follows; I do not claim that this is exactly right; I do not want everyone voting Sally in a bandwagon of Shastanic porportions the moment I leave; I hold no responsibility if this happens. )

Why would you assume people would jump on your vague suspicion, and feel the need to qualify your feelings?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure.

Well, the Cobbler can send suggestions to the wolves regarding their kill, and over time they'll be able to narrow down the Cobbler that way. That's pretty time consuming, though, and the Cobbler doesn't want to be killed by them, so I'd think some hints would be likely.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Happy New Vailan Year to all of you!

Should Aulë-quaintance be forgot....

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, Cailín's vote isn't all that great, but it doesn't look particularly wolfy to me. I don't really see a wolf voting that way. I've never played with her, though, so I don't know what a Wolín looks like.

Could be a Cobbler-signal. Early, ill reasoned votes can well serve that purpose. Then again, she seems to be rather busy IRL.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

Thanks for the effort, but is odds-making necessary at this point? Just sayin'. Sorry, Sally. I forgot you had a ™ on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So this Day1 lasts for 36 hours.

It began on 10AM GMT/UTC (3AM EST)

and will end on 10PM GMT/UTC (3PM EST) tomorrow.

Herr Mod, shouldn't the EST time be 5PM? I think they're GMT-5.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)? And why do you want Shasta? Maybe 'cause I remember Shasta was a really good wolf one game past...

I believe that was a banter post. And he mentioned Shasta becase the last game he played in, we lynched Shasta-seer Day 1.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Why would you assume people would jump on your vague suspicion, and feel the need to qualify your feelings?

It's happened before - I threw out vague suspicion of Shasta Day 1, and he was lynched near-unanimously. I assumed no one would jump on it then, and they did, so now I'm assuming they will and, hopefully, that'll mean that they won't.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's happened before - I threw out vague suspicion of Shasta Day 1, and he was lynched near-unanimously. I assumed no one would jump on it then, and they did, so now I'm assuming they will and, hopefully, that'll mean that they won't.

Well, baddies can latch onto any old bandwagon. What makes Lottie's so inviting?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, baddies can latch onto any old bandwagon. What makes Lottie's so inviting?

It might be the complimentary rainbows and good interior lighting. I'll run a few surveys and get back to you on that.

EDIT: xed with the Mod-Dude

[Macalaure]

About all those cobbler-wolf hint... quest... thing.

In my experience, it's very unusual for wolves to hint to a suspected cobbler in a normal game, unless it's late in the game and every vote counts. In this game, the cobbler can communicate with the wolves to an extent - their connection is better than usual - and now they are suddenly certainly going to throw around hints? Possible, yes, since the temptation to use the cobbler strategically is there, but we have nearly zero chance to detect any hints now. Once a baddie is dead, we will certainly see clearer, but looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

About all those cobbler-wolf hint... quest... thing.

In my experience, it's very unusual for wolves to hint to a suspected cobbler in a normal game, unless it's late in the game and every vote counts. In this game, the cobbler can communicate with the wolves to an extent - their connection is better than usual - and now they are suddenly certainly going to throw around hints? Possible, yes, since the temptation to use the cobbler strategically is there, but we have nearly zero chance to detect any hints now. Once a baddie is dead, we will certainly see clearer, but looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

I think hints are far more likely coming from the Cobbler to the wolves. The Cobbler doesn't mind getting lynched, really, and as you say, hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not really so sure about the whole Pitchwife suspicion I'm seeing here. With unexplained Day1 suspicion, when nearly anything would suffice, it's perfectly reasonable for him to want some answers. So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

If I did, it would behoove you as an innocent not to mention it.

But actually, I'm becoming relatively more OK with Pitchie and less so with Inzil and Lottie at the moment. It's all in the reactions...

Oh yeah, and: quite a lot of talk about how various roles are likely to behave for such a basic game, isn't there?

[Ozban]

Sorry for double-posting, this just stroke me as I reread the one before.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm not really so sure about the whole Pitchwife suspicion I'm seeing here. With unexplained Day1 suspicion, when nearly anything would suffice, it's perfectly reasonable for him to want some answers. So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

Nessa, would you care to explain that post? Were you trying to suggest any powers, or even gift on Rikae's part? Why would you bring attention to someone whom you suspect to be the seer (that's how I understood your post) on Day1? Wouldn't that endanger the "possible-seer" ???
Way my reasoning goes that isn't something "good-guy" should do.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's more than likely that the wolves and the cobbler try to identify each other as soon as possible, so we should watch out for people who look like they know too much (even if they can't really do that till tomorrow). Of course the wolves & the cobbler have information we don't, but it's still possible they get overly confident and slip something.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

This could be a coincidence. It could have no correlation whatsoever. Or it could be cobbler!Nessa trying to hint back at Agan, who she thinks is a wolf, or it could be wolf!Nessa trying to hint back at Agan, who she thinks is the cobbler. Just throwing that out there.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I believe that was a banter post. And he mentioned Shasta becase the last game he played in, we lynched Shasta-seer Day 1.

Exactly, I witnessed lynching Shasta-seer on day1 during my first game. It's quite memorable, not to mention how "thrilling" the game was after that.

I am concerned about Inzil, he's unreadable to me.

Boro amazes me, what a dream-teller.

One thing I can be sure of, I'm not voting Legate, I'm not willing to risk same banwagon I launched last time.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all. Of course he still has 10ish hours to come back, but I don't. So going on what I have to work with now Pitch looks the most suspicious to me.

I see more people as "unhelpful" as Pitch. Satan, Nessa I'd say. Way I see it He's just being himself.

I shall probably vote some low-profiler. There's hardly anything solid to latch onto.

Later...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Herr Mod, shouldn't the EST time be 5PM? I think they're GMT-5.

Achh... you're right... I was thinking it 7 hours from my time (which is correct).

Sorry. I'l correct my earlier "correction" concerning the EST.

The deadline is 10PM GMT/UTC - aka. 5PM EST.


Also to Blind Guardian: 19½ hours left of the day...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Should Aulë-quaintance be forgot....

...and Nessa brought to mind;

Inziladun gets free pass for today for making me laugh.

My major impression of the first part of today has been that no-one wants to stand out. Although Ozban looks as though he's a potential nutter. I'll give him a pass too.

Any one of you could be a wolf. Tomorrow will be more interesting. Be back to vote later, though also not for Cailin as that would be an awkward way to say hello after two months.

Ok, I at least have a mini-list of people not to vote for!

[Kitanna]

I meant to post again, but when I sat down to do so I had nothing new to say. But I have to go to work and I'll be there until the DL. Which means it's voe time.

++Pitch

I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all. Of course he still has 10ish hours to come back, but I don't. So going on what I have to work with now Pitch looks the most suspicious to me.

I don't have time to elaborate or dissect anyone else. Sorry.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'll only be back briefly before the deadline, because I've got school slammed right into the middle. So hopefully my absence won't be misinterpreted, and there will be enough to read for a good vote.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

Hey what's suspicious about that?

You're the first one to mention cobblers and wolves sending messages. The first point in your first post. And if you look closer at the actual statement, it doesn't even really make sense. I have you down as cobbler until I find someone better.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Mac's big post of postiness was unnerving

Except that it wasn't even the longest one. Agan's just below it was a lot longer and several above were about the same length (with more text, though), so.. huh?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I think if we're to look at Pitch, let's look at his posts prior to asking Rikae and Sally to explain. To me he seems to be speaking a lot without saying anything. Like "here I am, being helpful, but I'm really being sneaky by making noise."

This.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I think hints are far more likely coming from the Cobbler to the wolves. The Cobbler doesn't mind getting lynched, really, and as you say, hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

Exactly. But evidence of the sort "A, who might be a cobbler, is sending suspicious messages to B, who A might think might be a wolf" is not solid. If A is dead and certified evil, then yes, but not now.

[Boromir88]

So far those who've made some sort of initial impression as I've gone along and read...

Agan is being Agan. I thought since she has given me loads of insight into her wolvish mind (as I have given my wolvish insight to her before) maybe I'd be able to figure her intentions better. So far, this is to no avail, but if she had not thrown a random suspicion towards Lommy, and proceeded to make elaborate posts it would be a major shock. Doubt I'll ever be able to tell when Agan's what role, but as it is, she's popped into my head and thus will want to keep her around more.

Rikae for that "Mackie-pie," had me busting out laughing. I think we can solve the mystery of Rikae's role by simply asking her. Rikae-wolf?

Then I come to Mac, who I would be very very frightened of meeting again if I started calling Macki-pie, so I'm going to stick to Mac. However, can you define for me the significance of going into the drawer as opposed to up on the mantelpiece? A drawer suggests you are tucking these people away and leaving us there (what else are drawers good for, other than shoving in papers and folders when you're trying to quick clean up a room?).

Kath has made an appearance, she's really getting the hang of this whole remembering to appear Day 1, and as far as I know was not reminded day has started. (Makes me start thinking I should work on the "trying not to be the obsessive EVERYONE LOOK AT ME WEEEEE!" thing I said I would be working on. )

Pitch is an early name of who is suspicious being thrown around, I'm not seeing where the jumpiness is coming from? Looked like a random thing thrown out by Rikae and this prompts Pitch to ask for reasons. Suddenly this makes him jumpy?

Then Kitanna, Lottie, and Cailin all for mentioning me in some manner. When I revert to scanning mode, I scroll through pages to see where my name appears. So the easiest way to make an early impression/getting me to think about someone is to throw in a Boro somewhere. Doesn't have to make sense, could be like "I was thinking about wolves-strategy and...Boro looks sharp, and the wolves are going to try...wow I really like Boro's sweater-vest," and 90% chance I take notice.

Everyone else has not made an impression on me, or maybe you did and I'd already forgotten thinking about how studious and professional I'm looking at the moment.

Edit: Crossed with Lottie and Shasta