Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And come on people, where are your lists?

It's not that hard.

Just list the living players (besides Rik and I) and say what you think of them. Even one word would do (eg "Werewolf" or "Ordo").

There's a reason for it.

Do you want the village to win or not?

I would absolutely love to tell you more and be nice and open and honest, but I CAN'T until enough of you have submitted lists. I'm under orders here, so don't go and blame me.

Phantom, sweet cousin. Two things.


A: My list is about done. In fact it is, I just need to update your and Gwath's post counts now that you've posted.

B: EXPLAIN YOURSELF! I believe you're on the good team, and I believe you're trying to help, but stop the secrecy and tell us what you can. I understand if you can't tell us everything now, but at least give us a few pieces to go on. Please. I'm flipping begging you.

[satansaloser2005]

Gramma Greenie: Her sn is A Little Green. But is she a little wolf? I think it's possible, but I don't know yet. Yellow zone but there's almost no way I'd lynch her toDay. (16)

Grandpa Shasta: Never remembers to take his pills, but I think he's innocent. (63)

Great Aunt Izzy: Throws knives at random people. Never a good sign. And she's completely escaped my attention, and I never like that. (23)

Lommy Mommy: I can't shake the feeling that she's a wolf. Other than her behavior with the whole Phantom/Rikae/Di/Legate thing yesterday, she seems innocent, so I'm hoping it was just a flurry of confusion. Surprisingly, I would vote her, but only if she was against someone I thought extremely innocent. (64)

Nilp Daddy: Um, nothing. I have no idea. I'm leaning innocent, and yet I think that's a bad idea. I'll give him another day or two, but I really need to look at him closer. (16)

Eön, my big bro: He's never played before, and this is a tough game to start out on. So I can understand why he's so quiet. Problem is, that means I can't get a read on him. (6)

Sister Kath: Too quiet. Kath, please talk honey. I don't want to lynch my favorite (only, but that's not the point) sister. (11)

Sally (ME!): As my MSN name currently says, little old me, five foot three, geeky (and innocent) as one could ever be. (65)

Rikae: Flipping Evil Incarnate. Even changed her avvie accordingly. But in case she's the EW, let's not try to lynch her and waste it. Sounds like a job for.... (58)

Phantom!: I believe him. Period. Mostly because he's been so stinking right, Di supported him, Rikae's against him, etc, etc. If he's a wolf, I'll drive to Omaha and strangle him. (133)

Lhuna: I don't know why, but she looks unshaven. Her posts are fine, she seems clean, but it's almost too perfect. I'm on the fence, but it's a furry fence. (27)

Dure: Leaning innocent, although I could switch depending on how the next couple days go. (38)

Roa: I don't like how much she was fighting with Phantom. It looks....wait a minute....okay withholding judgement on Roa for now. End of story. (63)

Brinn: Seems innocent enough, but I know from experience she's a tricky minx. I'm watching you, missy.... (56)

Legate: Honey, I love you, and you look....well, pretty good. *blows a kiss* You've made some potential slip-ups, but I've played with you when you were a wolf (if I remember correctly) and you were smooooth. So if you are an ordo, be careful not to be lynched. (If you're a wolf....well, let's just say that not only would we be through, but you wouldn't be having kids with me OR any wolfgirl you may have your eyes on.) For now, I still think you're innocent, especially after how Rikae's been going after you (could be a setup, but for now I'm going with it) so I'll trust you. But be careful, my darling. (59)

Lal: She was pretty quiet for a while, then popped up during the Wizard debate yesterDay and I didn't like what she said about it. No offense dearie, you just seemed to be a little too smooth about it. not smooth....bah I can't think what I think. (38)

Morm: My instincts on Morm are wrong. I don't care what they are, I'll be wrong. I think he's innocent, so he's probably a wolf. Don't ask. (15)

Cellie: I'm pretty sure she's innocent, although she could be a very slick wolf. (9)

Gwath: If he's a wolf for the third time in a row, I pity him. I think he's okay for now, but I've also not looked at him much. (36)

Cabbie: Still leaning evil. I wish he could convince me otherwise, but yeah. He's on my wolf list. (9)



So here's a thought. I put everyone's post count at the end of my impression of them, just to get a feel for how "active" people are being. (granted, some of the posts are useless, but it's a starter, especially if their count is super-low)

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

This is the current post count:

Nogrod 23
Isabellkya 23
Volo 19
Macalaure 19
Nilpaurion Felagund 16
A Little Green 16
mormegil 15
Kath 11
THE Ka 11
Celuien 9
McCaber 9
Nerwen 7
Eönwë 6
Kitanna 3

As you can see there are some people who have been dead for some time who have more votes than some who are still alive. Volo was only able to post on Day one and he's beating quite a few of you. Also, the Mod should always have the fewest number of posts on a thread by Day 4. Of this group, Isabel and Nilp have received the least ammount of attention. I find this highly disturbing, so I'll be looking at them first, and moving down the list.

Honestly, in such a large game some of us need to be quiet.. Can you imagine what would happen it we all posted like you and tp?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Honestly, in such a large game some of us need to be quiet.. Can you imagine what would happen it we all posted like you and tp?

Haha yeah. But some people are TOO quiet. And I think that's what she's trying to point out Gwath. Some people are inexplicably quiet, and it's unsettling. Volo (the second Night kill) should NOT have more posts than a person who's still alive in the game. I'm hoping there's an explanation, because otherwise I'm really uneasy about the silent-ish people.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And come on people, where are your lists?

It's not that hard.

Just list the living players (besides Rik and I) and say what you think of them. Even one word would do (eg "Werewolf" or "Ordo").

There's a reason for it.

Do you want the village to win or not?

I would absolutely love to tell you more and be nice and open and honest, but I CAN'T until enough of you have submitted lists. I'm under orders here, so don't go and blame me.

>P I'm analyzing. I hate making lists. In fact I never do. At most I list the top three most suspicious people to me. And there is no WAY I'm screening back through 27 pages to figure it out.

And besides, if we start listing people we think are innocent or we're unsure of, the EW will be sure to lick from those people. Only we won't know which ones. So I'm not doing it. You make a list. I'll be doing something more productive.

Edit: "pick" not "lick"... *giggles at the thought of the EW licking people....*

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Haha yeah. But some people are TOO quiet. And I think that's what she's trying to point out Gwath. Some people are inexplicably quiet, and it's unsettling. Volo (the second Night kill) should NOT have more posts than a person who's still alive in the game. I'm hoping there's an explanation, because otherwise I'm really uneasy about the silent-ish people.

How about those that post meaningless nonsense and banter. I saw more than enough of that to suit me. In fact I think there was one whole page dedicated to it...remember people triple posting and the third post was simply to say they triple posted.

Anyway, overall Lal, Lommy and Shasta are my top suspects (excluding Rikae, but I think I know where tp may be going with this.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

How about those that post meaningless nonsense and banter. I saw more than enough of that to suit me. In fact I think there was one whole page dedicated to it...remember people triple posting and the third post was simply to say they triple posted.

Anyway, overall Lal, Lommy and Shasta are my top suspects (excluding Rikae, but I think I know where tp may be going with this.)

I don't mind that nearly as much as not posting at all. As long as you post sense too, I'm not going to complain a ton about being silly. After all, we placed ourselves in families so we could have fun with other people in the game, i.e. fun posting.


Blast, Phantom, where ARE you? *is losing her mind*



P.S. Why, Morm?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And besides, if we start listing people we think are innocent or we're unsure of, the EW will be sure to lick from those people. Only we won't know which ones. So I'm not doing it. You make a list. I'll be doing something more productive.

Yes but we must say who we suspect and by simply process of elimination any EW with any sense could figure out those who are not suspected. I don't see how this could overly benefit the EW but it could be a detriment to the baddies so why are you so resistent to it?

[Gwathagor]

This is a vibe-based list.
1 is most innocent, 10 is most guilty

A Little Green - 3
Shastanis Althreduin - 7
Isabellkya - 5
Thinlómien - 6
Nilpaurion Felagund - 3
Eönwë - 2
Kath - 4
Satansaloser 2005 - 3
Lhunardawen - 3
Durelin - 4
Roa_Aoife - 5
Legate of Amon Lanc - 6
Lalaith - 5
Mormegil - 7
Celuien - 2
Gwathagor - 4
McCaber - 6

This is an imperfect list, as I can't remember much about some people. Maybe I'll post "Vibe-List, The Revenge of" later or something after reading back through with a shrewd and analytical eye.

[the phantom]

Cool list, Gwath. I don't think I've ever seen a numerical guilt scale.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Gwath

A Little Green - 3
Shastanis Althreduin - 7
Isabellkya - 5
Thinlómien - 6
Nilpaurion Felagund - 3
Eönwë - 2
Kath - 4
Satansaloser 2005 - 3
Lhunardawen - 3
Durelin - 4
Roa_Aoife - 5
Legate of Amon Lanc - 6
Lalaith - 5
Mormegil - 7
Celuien - 2
Gwathagor - 4
McCaber - 6

I've been excluded from said list. How insulting. *pouts*

[the phantom]

Part of the reason why I want lists from everyone is so people are forced to say what they think. Meaning they can't sit quiet in the background and give no clear opinions and just slip by, submarine fashion.

People should either tell the truth or be forced to bluff and lie. It's ridiculous that someone should be able to get through a game without having to say much of anything at all.

[satansaloser2005]

÷÷Phantom



Sorry, I'm frustrated and kind of tired. AND I wanted to see if I could figure out how to post that symbol on my American keyboard.



EDIT: Dang. Downs hiccuped or something, so now I'm x'd with Brinn and Phantom. And don't worry Phantom. I dont' really want to kill you. Slap you, yes. Kill you, no.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by phantom

And come on people, where are your lists?

It's not that hard.

Just list the living players (besides Rik and I) and say what you think of them. Even one word would do (eg "Werewolf" or "Ordo").

Heh, I'm tempted to pull a Lommy and rebel.

But I won't. I want to make a summary of everyone...mainly because anything, I need it for myself.

Btw, I just got away from reading an old WW game, which was the biggest mistake of my life. Seriously, I recommend that no one should ever be allowed to read old WW games while playing a current one. Now my opinions are totally skewed...

I need to take a few hours off and erase the last hour or so from my brain. But some more tangible thoughts from me will be coming later, I promise.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

Slap you, yes. Kill you, no.

Give it time.

You'll want to kill me eventually.

By the way, there's one list in particular that I want to see.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Give it time.

You'll want to kill me eventually.

By the way, there's one list in particular that I want to see.

GAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[satansaloser2005]

Ummmm, Di is on IM and pointed out to me that my fake Phantom vote looks like a real one. Let me assure you, it's division signs, not plus signs. Just so it's clear to everyone, just in case and all that. Thanks for letting me know, Di. *waves*

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Part of the reason why I want lists from everyone is so people are forced to say what they think. Meaning they can't sit quiet in the background and give no clear opinions and just slip by, submarine fashion.

Because I always sit quietly and slide by with out sharing my opinion...

My Nilp analysis is almost done, and then I'll be moving on to Isabel. I prefer a better use of my time.

[the phantom]

Yeah, about those fake division sign votes- really making it easy on our mod, aren't we?

[Roa_Aoife]

Also I don't like being told what to do.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Roa

Because I always sit quietly and slide by with out sharing my opinion...

Heh heh. Yeah, I didn't really have you in mind when I said that.

[the phantom]

Also I don't like being told what to do.

Well, how about if I ask?

Will everyone please make a list?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yeah, about those fake division sign votes- really making it easy on our mod, aren't we?

Hehe. Noggie, I'm sorry about your bald spot. So, so very sorry. *gives Noggie a hug and makes him stop pulling out his hair over our pseudovotes*



Phantom, I'd SO like to ask you a question right now. But if I'm right and I say it, it gives the EW way too much information, so I'll just have to stay in the dark.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well, how about if I ask?

Will everyone please make a list?

Well, you didn't comment on mine, so I'm not talking to you anymore.

And I even included you in it.

[the phantom]

Sorry, Sally, but I don't want to really "comment" on the lists at this time.

Originally Posted by Sally

If he's a wolf, I'll drive to Omaha and strangle him.

Oh great- yet another person for my security staff to have to look out for.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Sorry, Sally, but I don't want to really "comment" on the lists at this time.

Oh great- yet another person for my security staff to have to look out for.

Okay. Can you do this for me? Make your own list. Just a general "These are wolvish, these aren't". I don't want you to give the wizard away, but I need to get SOMETHING from you besides "Do what I say, but I'm not telling you what I think." Please, Phantom.


And I'll just bring the duck with me if necessary. *pang of duck withdrawal hehe* We're stealth, we is.

[the phantom]

Okay, here's the deal. The GW and EW still have another Night of activity left, and I can't afford to give the EW an accurate picture of what I know. I mean, if I say who to suspect and who not to suspect, the EW and the WWs will suddenly know precisely who to kill and who to scry.

I will tell you some hard true information, but not until later today.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nilp Analysis

Day 1- forgot to show. *snickers*

Nilp was probably not a wolf on Day 1, since he probably wouldn't have missed it. I also doubt that he is a wizard.


Day 2
Post 1 - Clarifies that there was no night activity, so we can't point out anything from Volo's posts.

Post 2 - Admits that there are a lot of voting lists already, but he wants to make his own. States that we don't know if the wolves know each other already. Poses the possibility that they do, because it would make them more effective by Day. Thinks that perhaps those that state the wolves don't know each other are wolves themselves. He decides to focus on the votes of the dead, and on bandwagons.

His conclusions: 1. The phantom bandwagon is unsuspcious as phantom was acting suspicious. However, Eonwe's vote seems out of place here. 2. The Nerwen bandwagon was started by Cailin, but Cailin herself seemed unsuspicious in her vote. The others (McCaber and Di) seemed more suspicious. 3. Finds the Agan bandwagon to be the least suspicious.

In this post, he restates a lot of things that have already been discussed, and seems to dismiss the idea that the wolves don't know each other, even going so far as to suggest that those who think so are wolves themselves. Certainly that shouldn't be ruled out (you can't trust anyone in this game unless you know for certain who they are) but niether should the opposite. His conclusions on the bandwagons are fairly non-committal, but he was really, really wrong about the Nerwen bandwagon.

Post 3 - apologizes for clicking the wrong button? (I'm not sure what he's refering to...)

Post 4 - Banter with Gwath

Post 5 - reports fixing his previous mistake

Post 6 -

I've been thinking about the NIGHT's kill, and I came up with this notion: The Dark Side fears killing the Hunter above all.

Think about it: they have four Wolves now (=2 kills/NIGHT), and with the absence of double lynching, we could kill only a maximum of one Wolf per DAY. So, even if we get one lupine pelt today, with a successful EW-scry, they would still have 2 kills.

Therefore, the only thing they fear is a kill beyond the DAY's lynching. That only means the Hunter.

So I've looked at the posts of the NIGHT's victim, checked whom they suspected, decided that they are probably innocent.

Here are the people he crosses off:

So morm, Agan, and Legate are probably innocent. (Or they are controlled by a very bold EW--or perhaps even one of them is! But I'll stick with what I said first.) Greenie, Sally-poo, and tp are less so. (emphasis mine)

Reiterates the idea that the wolves probably know each other now.

This is erroneous information. The hunter isn't the only one who can take down the wolf numbers at Night. The GW can scry them to get rid of them. And you can't rule people out because they were suspected by the people that were killed. Wolves have killed the people that suspect them before in a double bluff to make people think that it's not them. (For heaven's sake, I do it almost every time I'm a wolf!) This post sets off alarm bells. Also, we can't assume that the wolves know each other yet- that's very dangerous thinking and can get innocent people lynched for a supposed connection that doesn't even exist.

Post 7 - Still thinks that the wolves will avoid killing anyone who suspects them because they fear the hunter. Has convinced himself that the wolves do talk to each other. Looks at the bandwagoners and orders them from least suspicious to most suspicious:
1. Agan - Thinks that if Agan is evil, Kath and Lhuna are innocent
2. Cailin - had a very valid reason for voting
3. Durelin - had continual suspicion towards Nerwen
4. Lal - did express some suspicion
5. Diamond - voted to keep phantom around
6. McCaber - very shifty reasoning
VOTES MCCABER

The fact that two known wolves were the lowest on his list and that the now known seer was second highest is rather concerning. I still don't think it's a good idea for him to assume that the wolves are talking to each other just yet.


Day 3

Post 1 - Explains Agan's vote for Nerwen as being afraid of getting lynched by the remaining voters. Rules out tp and himself (why himself?) and believes that Lhuna and Kath were innocent on Day 1. (He basis this off the idea that the wolves know each other, which may or may not be true. So his assumption about Kath and Lhuna is not only flawed, but dangerous.)

Post 2 - Thinks Rikae is jumpy and perhaps sinister.

This is the first right call he's made so far. I'm not sure what to make of it. If he's a wolf, he may be trying to distance himself. Or he may not know who his fellows are. (Perhaps he kept insisting that the wolves knew each other in order to draw us away from the fact that they don't.) If he's innocent, well, 3rd Day's the charm?

Post 3 - Decides to look at the band wagons again. "I'll sniff at the Mac bandwaggon first. Akamaru! Rarf!"

A bold hint?

Post 4 - Mac Bandwagon:
Lhuna has evidence
Kath - no conclusion
Di- voted for personal reasons

I'm not certain exactly what his suspicions are here, since he doesn't clearly lay them out. He suggests we look at Sally's post #615 to get what he thinks about Diamond, but that post is about Gwath....

Post 5 - Joking post about self-voting

Post 6 - Lhuna posting in Nilp's name. Banter

Post 7 - Nilp again. Banter

Post 8 - Thinks Rikae is acting weird again, compares her to Valier in last DW.

Now that's just plain odd. In the last village, the very innocent Valier pegged me solid as the EW. I then turned her into a wolf to discredit her opinion of me. So I wonder what exactly Nilp is trying to suggest here.

Post 9 - Votes Rikae. This the first votes for her and apparently the original suspicion towards her before her reveal. I hadn't seen much odd in Rikae that Day (though I was admittedly pretty sick that Day), and he says he doesn't need to do an analysis because her guilt is really obvious. Which it obviously isn't, because Rikae didn't have that much suspicion on her. This is apparently what prompted the "reveal". Nilp's suspicion here seems forced, somehow.

Day 4 - Nothing yet

Overall, he posts a lot of fluff, some erroneous information and conclusions, and the only thing he's gotten right so far is Rikae, which he somehow managed before all of us. If it was planned for Rikae to reveal as the GW, he may have been trying to give her an excuse. I definitely find him suspicious, and I'm a little cnofused by all these people that find him "reasonable."

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Also I don't like being told what to do.

Just dot it!!!

Sally, just calm down a bit...things will be clear soon, I suspect. Go to sleep then wake up and you will be surpirsed what tp may have for us.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Okay, here's the deal. The GW and EW still have another Night of activity left, and I can't afford to give the EW an accurate picture of what I know. I mean, if I say who to suspect and who not to suspect, the EW and the WWs will suddenly know precisely who to kill and who to scry.

I will tell you some hard true information, but not until later today.

Frankly, I don't think the time of day matters. As long as it's toDay, the Night situation will be the same.



Roa, thanks for the Nilp post by the way. You've made my re-look at him a bit easier, although obviously if I have time I'll have to look at his posts in detail myself.



EDIT: Oh, x'd with Morm btw.

[the phantom]

Where are Nilp and Lhuna? Aren't they usually around at this time?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Just dot it!!!

Sally, just calm down a bit...things will be clear soon, I suspect. Go to sleep then wake up and you will be surpirsed what tp may have for us.

I'm not particularly mad actually, just starting to wonder if I'm (we're) being played.



Hmmmmm. Morm, your post intrigues me. I think I'm going to look at you and see if your posts spell out anything to me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Just dot it!!!

I'm analyzing, which is way more helpful.

But fine, here's what I think of everyone.

I don't trust anyone in werewolf ever, as a rule, unless I'm a wolf or a gifted. I think everyone is mildly suspicious, and some more than others. I don't accept statements or reveals at face value. And I don't make assumptions about anyone.

I don't feel that anyone is innocent, because the second I do, I could be turning my attention away from a wolf. The non-posters, including yourself, make me very nervous, because I have a hard time noticing until late in the game. So, take that post count, exclude the dead and Nog-Mod, add Rikae and phantom, and you have a list of the people that concern me the most at this time.

Happy now?

[satansaloser2005]

Well, if there's no new posts by 1am (my time) I'm leaving. I'm on a friend's couch and I have to be at work before 8am. Need some sleep.



Phantom. Can you post whatever you need to post by noon? I get lunch then and I'd really like to read your insight before I vote; that break would be a perfect time to (sort of) catch up. If nothing else, post well before 4 if possible, so I can figure out what the expletive is going on here. Sorry, I know I'm being slightly codependent, but I don't like the way this is going and if you know something and are being honest, I'd like to be in on it, you know?



*waits for posts for another twenty minutes or so*

[the phantom]

I'll post what you need to know in about eight hours, Sally.

I'd like to see lists from people in the meantime. Particularly people who haven't talked much this game.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I'll post what you need to know in about eight hours, Sally.

I'd like to see lists from people in the meantime. Particularly people who haven't talked much this game.

Curse you, Phantom. Curse you....

*is a little neurotic because of the busy week ahead*


Well, as long as you don't think I'M a wolf....wait a sec. You don't, do you?




EDIT/ADDITION: See what happens when no one else posts? Sally gets bored and entertains herself. All right, off to bed soon. Good night everyone! Sleep/work/whatever you're doing in the next few hours well!

[the phantom]

Well, as long as you don't think I'M a wolf....wait a sec. You don't, do you?

The Seer dreamed of you last night.

So you tell me what I think.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

The Seer dreamed of you last night.

So you tell me what I think.

You bloody lie....we don't have a seer....Di's dead....



Now you're just screwing with me. I'm going to bed.



P.S. I was totally kidding, by the way. Little did I expect an "actual" answer. Meh. *flops*

[the phantom]

Yes, the Seer is dead.

But she still had her dream last night.

Read the rules.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yes, the Seer is dead.

But she still had her dream last night.

Read the rules.

True. But I still think you're screwing with me. And if not, you just got me killed. I'd rather be a questioned innocent than a known corpse, thank you very much. *applies for the witness protection program*


And for those of you who'll complain about my lack of post content in the morning, look what I had to work with?