Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[A Little Green]

But yes, it'll be interesting to see whether they go for Nilp as a more or less known innocent, try to gun for the unknown Ranger (Brinn? Pitch? I think Pitch seems more likely atm, though who knows what the wolves think), or go for the one who was perhaps most vocally on Shasta's side and thus hardest to point fingers at toMorrow (ie. Sally).

[Nogrod]

Well, if the wolves manage a kill, they're sure to be waiting there at the Daybreak to vote. With a 4-4 situation it means the party which gives the last vote loses. The wolves understand that and (as I think is obvious) Rikae understands that. Unless some RL problem prevents them, they should all be able to vote immediately and the Cobbler knows to be there and see whom to vote. So the Village has maybe a minute to play.

On the villager's side we have once more a problem with Nilp as the time is more or less awkward for him. Let's see if he could redeem himself by waking up for it and joining the fray.

The slight hope we might have, I think, is if all the Villagers understand the situation and come separately to the same conclusion: that they must pick the same wolf and do it fast. And who would that be? Well, they could come up with Mac just by inference and realize he's the only one the others could pick as well. So if they all start the Day by voting Mac, without waiting first how the others vote, then there is a chance.

Not that great a chance though.


So, go Ranger! You're our best (practically only) hope!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

But yes, it'll be interesting to see whether they go for Nilp as a more or less known innocent, try to gun for the unknown Ranger (Brinn? Pitch? I think Pitch seems more likely atm, though who knows what the wolves think), or go for the one who was perhaps most vocally on Shasta's side and thus hardest to point fingers at toMorrow (ie. Sally).

My guess is they try to go for the securest kill possible aka. someone who's least probably protected aka. the Ranger themself or the one the Ranger would least likely protect. If they succeed in their NightKill, they don't need to point fingers at anyone in particular.

So even if their chances are pretty good (3/4 to succeed) they still have a slight problem in picking their choice.

The Ranger could be anyone but Nilp - I guess that's safe to assume - and could thus protect anyone.

Nilp is the known innocent but also the one who probably should be let to live because of the timezone problem he has. Of the four villagers he's the least likely to be there so the best bet to let live.

Sally was strongly supporting Shasta, so they would probably want to get rid of her just because of that (even if it doesn't actually matter to them, who dies). But that strong opposition might be the reason for the Ranger to protect her.

Brinn and Pitch would be my best bets for the Ranger - Pitch clearly saw what was going on and I believe Brinn saw the light late yesterDay. So either if them? If I were the Ranger and either of them, I'd probably protect the other one.

As I think Pitch looks more like the Ranger, I'd go for him were I a wolf.


Let's see.