Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Huinesoron]

Thanks for the vote tallies, BG! Looking at how we (in)Glorious Dead voted:

On Day 1, two of us voted for Form, and one for Legate (& one for me). Legate is now the only surviving Form voter from Day 1.

On Day 2, both BG and Nog voted... Form.

Okay, seriously: Form can't possibly be a wolf, right? No pack would allow a Day Three where 4 of the 6 votes cast by the dead were for one of their own. Right?

Looking at the voting times: that Nog-wagon really did come out of nowhere in terms of actual votes. They were all in the final nine minutes! Checking both days, the names that pop out as 'late & secured an innocent kill' are:

• Pitch (throwaway vote Day 1, first to join the Nog-wagon Day 2 after being able to see it already had votes)
• Brinn (throwaway when I was at 4 votes Day 1, final nail in Nog's coffin Day 2).

I feel like Rikae's early vote is actually a point in their favour. Would a wolf set themselves up as the instigator of multiple innocent lynches?

---

Something Mac said struck me as suspicious:

Originally Posted by Mac

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay

But... why though? I know he doesn't know when we voted, but a) we know nothing, and b) our vote killed an innocent! Combine this with his first comment after the night-kill:

Originally Posted by Mac

I believe you owe the good man an answer, you bloodthirsty lot!

I may be biased by already knowing why Lottie thinks she was killed, but trying to push Day Three's discussion back to the Day One night-kill seems pretty counterproductive, as well as a neat way of pushing attention onto Anyone But Him.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Um.

Looking back over that last post: what if we have a pack who are deliberately looking wolfish?

Because everyone has spent a lot of time saying 'That suspicious behaviour is too obvious for a [wolf/seer]!', and then focussing on the less-obviously-suspicious people. So a defense of 'Form can't be a wolf, why would the wolves kill all his voters?' and 'Rikae can't be a wolf, why would a wolf position themselves at the head of a lynch?' would probably hold up, at least for a day or so.

And... a day or so is all they need. If they can avoid losing a wolf toDay, and get a clean kill toNight, they'll be at 5 evil, 5 good, and all they need is the Cobbler to identify themselves and mass-vote for a single candidate. As we saw last game with Brinn's virtuoso performance as Seer, a 'reveal and we win' message is a very plausible way to pull off a victory.

This would work best if the wolves have a good idea of who the Cobbler is, since whichever pack member makes the request would presumably(?) attract immediate votes from all the innocents, so they'd have to time it well.

Quick maths-check for if they fail:

Day Four: 4w, 1c, 5i
-One wolf posts to say 'Cobbler, vote for X if and only if I have not already received 5 votes'. Wolf receives 5 votes; Cobbler stays hidden. Wolf leaves instructions for Cobbler to vote for the same villager ASAP the next day (assuming one innocent and no wolves die in the night). Wolf lynched

Night 5: 3w, 1c, 5i
-Innocent night-killed.

Day 5: 3w, 1c, 4i
-Cobbler votes immediately after DL for the designated target. Wolves mass vote. Innocent lynched, because they got 4 votes first.

Night 6: 3w, 1c, 3i
-Innocent night-killed. Might even be the Cobbler, as least-likely to be BH protected. Wolf victory.

It's a plan that could definitely be derailed by a Gifted, but if it worked... come to think of it, they don't even need the Cobbler: all they need on Day 4 is for the first vote cast to be innocent-on-innocent, and they can mass-vote and win.

So we really need to kill a wolf toDay, because otherwise it's all up to the Gifted.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Since we have an unbreakable majority here by now (or at least, once we hit 4 evildoers the Seer will almost certainly be outed anyway), I can safely say this: Greenie #357 for Seer?

She lists only three people as not suspicious (Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta), and uses the word 'read' of all three - and not of anyone else. They're all reasonable Seer targets: I assume the Seer would focus on people who might be undercover wolves, rather than looking at the obvious suspects. (I would guess Nilp for N1 dream, as if he's a wolf, you're never going to guess on D1.)

She closes by saying she wants to read (that word again!) through Lommy today, and highlights that she's 'under the radar' - the same criteria I think she used for her other dreams.

If I'm right, then we unfortunately don't have any Seer-confirmed wolves yet, which explains a lot! It also means we might see Greenie here sooner than later - after all, if even I can spot it...

(Could she be fake-Seer hinting? Maybe, but risky: she's 'cleared' a quarter of a village which is 1/3 wolves, the odds of hitting one of them and invalidating her 'reads' are... um... about 50%, I believe.)

hS

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

And... a day or so is all they need. If they can avoid losing a wolf toDay, and get a clean kill toNight, they'll be at 5 evil, 5 good, and all they need is the Cobbler to identify themselves and mass-vote for a single candidate. ...

It's a plan that could definitely be derailed by a Gifted, but if it worked... come to think of it, they don't even need the Cobbler: all they need on Day 4 is for the first vote cast to be innocent-on-innocent, and they can mass-vote and win.

If this is right, it also explains BG's night-kill: not primarily a long-shot Seer, but someone who was unlikely to be protected by either the Ranger or the Beast Hunter. After all, if they can get to Day Four and time it right, it doesn't matter if the Seer has nailed all four of them: they win by getting the first vote. Their greatest danger would come from having one of their kills blocked (or, of course, one of them eating a lynch!).

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If this is right, it also explains BG's night-kill: not primarily a long-shot Seer, but someone who was unlikely to be protected by either the Ranger or the Beast Hunter. After all, if they can get to Day Four and time it right, it doesn't matter if the Seer has nailed all four of them: they win by getting the first vote. Their greatest danger would come from having one of their kills blocked (or, of course, one of them eating a lynch!).

Hmm... haven't made the maths myself, but I trust yours here.

In that case I'm actually curious no-one in the Living Thread seems to be too bothered about it...

Secondly: we might be witnessing a Seer reveal soonish - and possibly a counter-reveal by the NW. Especially if you have it right and it is indeed Greenie who is the Seer with three non-wolf Dreams. If the villagers vote the right way (so don't get fooled by a rival-reveal), they could then organize protection to her for the next Night and have a fighting chance.

Okay, I clearly need to look at the numbers.

[Nogrod]

Well, I guess you hS forgot something from your calculations: us!

The wolves may try to go for the "even numbers first" -victory - but we can derail them by giving an extra-vote to the good side and making it one vote -lynch. Which naturally means we'd have to succeed in it as well.

But yes. The worst scenario aka. an innocent lynch toDay and a succesful kill by the wolves the next Night will leave the village in the morning of Day4 at 6:4 by roles and 5:5 by siding. So in theory the wolves could win on Day4. It's only that they would really need to succeed in everything and we'd need to goof it royally.

With any other scenario than that things will be a lot more interesting and there are a myriad of variations.

That said I guess the Seer might still be holding her/his horses yet this Day. Then again there's the NW-issue no-one has talked about in a long time - but the wish of the wolves to unleash those capabilities probably hasn't gone anywhere. With only innocents dead thus far they might start to think, at some point, that they could afford one number less...

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, I guess you hS forgot something from your calculations: us!

The wolves may try to go for the "even numbers first" -victory - but we can derail them by giving an extra-vote to the good side and making it one vote -lynch. Which naturally means we'd have to succeed in it as well.

But yes. The worst scenario aka. an innocent lynch toDay and a succesful kill by the wolves the next Night will leave the village in the morning of Day4 at 6:4 by roles and 5:5 by siding. So in theory the wolves could win on Day4. It's only that they would really need to succeed in everything and we'd need to goof it royally.

Oh yeah... us. You're right, I did forget. Still doesn't help if they can piggyback a villager's vote Day 4 - that would get them 6 to a total of 5 (with us) against them.

As for us goofing it... I mean, we have for the last two days! The two protective Gifted will still have ten possible targets each toNight, and if the Seer reveals then at least one of them will have to protect her, making a kill even more likely.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With any other scenario than that things will be a lot more interesting and there are a myriad of variations.

That said I guess the Seer might still be holding her/his horses yet this Day. Then again there's the NW-issue no-one has talked about in a long time - but the wish of the wolves to unleash those capabilities probably hasn't gone anywhere. With only innocents dead thus far they might start to think, at some point, that they could afford one number less...

I feel like the best wolf strategy is to treat the NW as an ordinary wolf. Everyone thinks they'll be acting Cobblerish, so their best bet is... not to.

hS

[Loslote]

I've found Mac to be much more suspicious toDay, and Kath's reaction to Greenie also feels wolfish. I'm not done reading yet, but I wanted to jot that down while it was fresh in my mind.