Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta, yesterDay

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

=/=

Originally Posted by Shasta, toDay

Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I dunno, I just don't see a point for wolves to do that. Especially with how it's being pointed out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Brinniel]

Shasta, I had previously noticed Formy's gifted comment about Nog but somehow missed the mention of you. And then there's BG... *facepalm*

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

I understand Nog's frustration of being a suspect, but that could come from a frustrated innocent or wolf.

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

[Nogrod]

Well. The Japanese are fighting back ferociously so I decided to take a pause from the combat fatigue and see what's going on in here.

Some unarranged thoughts.

BG looks like a rookie trying to learn the ropes and making a few fumbles on the way. That said there was at least one newbie-wolf back in the days who took all the juice out of the role of being a newbie and went far - did they even win? I don't remember who it was, but it was several years ago. Anyway BG is not topping my list of possible wolves.

Rikae I find a bit confusing - albeit that is more a "feeling-thing". I'm used to not feel secure or easy about her ever, but normally she does turn into quite reasonable and productive player if innocent. Thus far I haven't felt it. Well, it's Day2 so there's time for that transformation to take place.

ShastaI've liked thus far, well yesterDay, as toDay he hasn't said much but explain some of his posts from Day1. Why? Because he was one of the very few who actually made points about others - and they were reasonable points to my ear (and mind) at least.

I have disturbing vibes from Kath, Form and Brinn, maybe also of Greenie. Some of them are related to the points already raised by some others, the rest are just personal feelings of something not being quite honest there.

I still see Legate as the best bet to vote, but I'll see if I can find better choices during the last hour.

(Say what you say, but I still think my points are valid. Instead of yelling "no!", please offer a more logical, or better fact-serving, theory of Lottie's death.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

=/=

I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.



Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

Also not what I said - I'm not sure why you're interpreting that as flippancy. I said I didn't have anywhere I was more comfortable voting, which was true - the only other place I might have gone was Pitch but I didn't want to vote for a perceived Cobbler.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Shasta, I had previously noticed Formy's gifted comment about Nog but somehow missed the mention of you. And then there's BG... *facepalm*

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.


I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

I understand Nog's frustration of being a suspect, but that could come from a frustrated innocent or wolf.

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

That's an interesting point - maybe the NW would do it in order to draw votes.

[Boromir88]

1 Hour to go.

Quick tally...Uh that was super quick

Greenie > Kath

*Waits for this posting explosion

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta

what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

This is a good point, though. A wolf might slip, sure, but other than that they have no reason to. It's the cobbler who has most interest in starting that discussion. Of all the ones accused (Nog, Nilp, Form, BG, did I miss one?), I'd actually say it makes them more innocent, with the exception of Nilp, who spins it in the despicably sinister direction of suspecting me.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also not what I said - I'm not sure why you're interpreting that as flippancy.

Well, fine for now. You're not my prime suspect at the moment, so I don't want to get into an argument right now. We'll see.

[Thinlómien]

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's. I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

Somehing to keep in mind, yes. I get both "frustrated innocent" and "frustrated wolf who thinks he's being suspected for the wrong reasons" from his posts at the moment. Flipety flipety flip flop. Don't know what to think.

Originally Posted by BG

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.

1) You should not vote for cobblers but for wolves anyway, 2) why would suicidal tendencies disqualify someone as a lynch candidate? Also, in my experience, Nilp only nilps himself on Day1, if he survives that he starts playing more "normally" - as we have seen toDay. (Btw personally I'm still flipflopping on Nilp because he was fishy yesterDay, then a lot more reasonable toDay, but everything doesn't still quite add up.)

Originally Posted by Sally

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?

You're not suspicious. What I said was, basically half of the village is actively giving me innocent vibes. You are not, because you havent been around and aren't giving any vibes. Thus you are a more likely wolf than someone who seems actively innocent to me. Makes sense?

Re: discussing gifteds - I don't think it's a deliberate tactic from anybody (except maybe the cobbler!), it's either careless wolves (who are spicing their stories with "jumpy but could be guilty jumpy or innocent jumpy", possibly more likely about their fellows; and who are not considering an innocent should not stay stuff like that) or even more careless innocents (who do not realise they should not be doing that).

Originally Posted by Brinn

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

*poke*

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

But seriously, what is with all the open discussion of gifteds? I had thought by now it was common knowledge to keep that sort of speculation quiet in the game thread.

Yes. I agree wholeheartedly. That said...

I promised not to make any defenses, but this has larger bearing than just my fate in this game. I mean, yes, I brought up the idea of Mac being possibly a choice for the wolves as the Seer - so I'm part of the problem? BUT, I thought it was obvious to anyone who read my posts, that I was making it a case that showed how bad the idea of thinking Lottie a Seer was based on her saying Hui is innocent. Like: if you thought that would be reason enough, then even this would be better (or as good).

My point was, and is, that Legate-version is much more believable - because even Mac could be seen as the Seer if that kind of posting would be a reasonable thing to pay heed to (Sure: frantic wolves desperate to find the Seer might of course take any straw they find to be grasped). Like someone has said already: it would be really odd, if Seer-Mac would have said something like that. He knows better than that.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I would also ask what need would an innocent have to call out possible gifteds? Perhaps a cobbler tactic... or a NW?

Actually it might make sense for a NW who is reckoning to get lynched and have no further chance of Night-talking with their pack.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

I don't either, but so far she's looking rather innocentish to me.


Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:


Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

sally should go on a hovering bar to the right of the scale, because darned if I know.

[Blind Guardian]

++Form

I gotta go and I gotta vote for someone so I'll just double down on yesterDays vote.

X'ed with all since BoroMod

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes. I agree wholeheartedly. That said...

I promised not to make any defenses, but this has larger bearing than just my fate in this game. I mean, yes, I brought up the idea of Mac being possibly a choice for the wolves as the Seer - so I'm part of the problem? BUT, I thought it was obvious to anyone who read my posts, that I was making it a case that showed how bad the idea of thinking Lottie a Seer was based on her saying Hui is innocent. Like: if you thought that would be reason enough, then even this would be better (or as good).

My point was, and is, that Legate-version is much more believable - because even Mac could be seen as the Seer if that kind of posting would be a reasonable thing to pay heed to (Sure: frantic wolves desperate to find the Seer might of course take any straw they find to be grasped). Like someone has said already: it would be really odd, if Seer-Mac would have said something like that. He knows better than that.

I think this does actually make sense and if this is what Nog meant in the first place and just worded it really badly then it makes me feel better about him.

[Thinlómien]

I know it's late but a quick list bc I can't think otherwise (also bc a lot of people seem less innocent to me now that they have posted more, lol):

Nice
BG - strong clueless ordo who hasn't played in a while vibes
Mac - gut feeling says innocent, logic says I should question that bc last game gut feeling said guilty and he was innocent. But logic also failed me last game, so I'm just gonna give him the benefit of doubt for toDay.

Kinda nice
Pitchwife and Greenie - don't seem über innocent but not very guilty either and also, I like their independent thinking
Kath - don't really see where all the suspicion against her is coming from - wolves trying to orchestrate a nice lynch? I maintain she seems more cheerful as an innocent and more detached as a wolf and now she's the former. Nonetheless, her involvement in the Hui lynch is a bit dodgy.

Who knows
Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf
Nogrod - ugh, what a mess
Brinn - to be fair, she hasn't done anything really suspicious but she doesn't give me any strong innocent vibes like almost most others in the village
Nilp - dodgy yesterDay, seemed better toDay, but when I think about it, maybe not better enough?
Shasta and Rikae - both seemed rather innocent to me yesterDay, toDay less so
Sally - not enough data. Doesn't seem to suspect much people which is usually wolfy, but then again, I seem to have the same problem myself...
Form - still not sitting right with me but still aware it might be very kneejerk


edit: xed with everyone

[Macalaure]

I'm echoing Kath in regards to feeling better about Nog now that he explained himself better. It makes Nilp look worse at the same time, though admittedly I might be biased since it's a reaction to his suspicion of me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Rikae/Mac

<3

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay... quickly, because I don't want to spend a decade quoting everything and then finding out it's again fifteen to DL.

Not sure what to think of the whole "let's discuss Gifteds" thing. The only person who would have a reason to discuss it openly is a Cobbler. This was the first time I thought BG might be a Cobbler (unless it's some super-clever self-defense, as in, "I am a Wolf but now I will pretend I am only a Cobbler").

Nog's frustration is understandable, but I want to resist starting meta-speculating whether he would do it with whichever role. In any case, he now seems like he has dug himself in his theory that he is repeating infinitely, but whether it's innocent or a Wolf defending to the one thing he has made the center of his Day I can't tell.

Otherwise: Sally's list actually puts her into my orange category. Of course it's essentially her first post with some more content in the whole game, so that's not enough to base any coherent picture on. But on first sight, it's sort of noncommittal, or very "bare bones". Feeling fabricated would be the word. It of course may be simply one written quickly, as lists are, but it does not say very much.

Form's list I also don't like and it makes me more suspicious of him.

I see Shasta is back, which is good. I am having a bit of strange vibe from him in the sense that yes, he is quoting and pointing out things, but at times feeling somewhat defensive (?). Including the remark of "although I was wrong about Hui, so..." But it's mostly a vibe, so nothing I actually would base much on at this point. It only confuses me a bit because yesterDay, I got much better impression from him.

EDIT: x-ed since Pitch

[Formendacil]

I daresay it's a case of closing the barn door after all the horses have left, but as regards defending myself of accusations of not knowing what "everyone knows," I'm basically a newbie. I haven't played in something like three or four years, and before that another couple years... so, yeah, I'm not exactly a grizzled veteran of the WW wars anymore.

Anyway, because I have difficulty admitting I can be wrong, I won't. Instead, I'll say I like Kath having a vote, and it's getting to be suppertime, so... alea iacta est.

++Kath

[Boromir88]

A quick tally...

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)

Oi, that's an even quicker tally.

I considered playing a prank, but it seems you'll have enough confusion with the final 30 minutes. So let the staring contest continue.

30 minutes to go.

Edit: crossed with Form. Added his vote.

[Thinlómien]

I feel like we were playing another Day1. It would be nice to lynch a wolf toDay (wow really ) and have more to analyse toMorrow. I kinda don't like our odds toDay, everything looks horribly messy. And half an hour to go only.

Any thoughts about who people would like to see lynched?

I have to say that I personally don't have a strong preference, except NOT BG, Mac, Greenie, Pitch, or Kath. Or basically anything that starts looking "too easy".

Form would be okay. Nilp? Maaaaybe Rikae or Shasta. I'm a bit on the fence about Legate and Nogrod.

Brinn or Sally? If it happened I wouldn't cry (sorry lovelies!) but I don't really have a reason to push it.

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

[Thinlómien]

I don't know what to think of everybody collectively lifting Nog off the hook. Fellow wolves happy to get an excuse not to bus him?

[Nogrod]

Besides Legate I might be persuade to vote for...

Form - not adding more points besides many that are voiced already, but maybe that it feels he's overdoing it.

Brinn - she's very good at this, but looks like 100% non-committant, mainly agreeing and rubbing people the right way - and her suspicions feel more like blowing in the embers to see if they would light up.


EDIT: X'd with fex. Form voting Kath...

[Macalaure]

Looked back over my list from earlier, and the only one I'm comfortable voting for right now is probably Nilp. I feel too on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand about everybody else I'm suspicious of. So I'm thinking I'm going to vote now and maybe gain some traction instead of throwing my vote away later or voting for someone I'd rather not vote for.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(I should've probably have Newton'd to Nog's Leibniz and claimed that I had come up with the idea independently but noticed that he had already posted it. And I was using it for my superior theory anyway, to complete the oversimplified boffin history analogy.)

Anyway, my brain took an inordinately long time trying to word this vote post without tipping the punchline, so I'll just go ahead and vote:

++Macalaure

The reason the wolves went after Lottie and not Mac is that Mac couldn't attack himself.

[Thinlómien]

Iiiinteresting. Somehow Mac (someone who seems innocent to me) and Nilp (someone who seems fishy to me) voting for each other made me think Mac more suspicious and Nilp more okay. Makes me maybe want to steer away from both of them for toDay.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf

I have noticed that he has been a bit quieter than what I've normally seen from him. I've been in agreement with him on a lot of things, but of course that doesn't mean he isn't evil. Legate is not someone I'd care to see lynched toDay, but I think he does gander a closer look toMorrow.

Right now Nogrod is my best lynch candidate. I could go for Formy as well. A lot of his posting does seem calculated, and not in a good way.

[Pitchwife]

Form, after your last posts, why Kath and not me?


I agree that Nog explained the seer-thing well. Don't think that we should therefore ignore the forced reasoning of his vote yesterDay.


I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

[Nogrod]

Now this is getting interesting.

Of course only when we have just twenty minutes left.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

The reason the wolves went after Lottie and not Mac is that Mac couldn't attack himself.

Maybe the reason the wolves went after Lottie instead of me is that they can only go after one at a time?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Form, after your last posts, why Kath and not me?


I agree that Nog explained the seer-thing well. Don't think that we should therefore ignore the forced reasoning of his vote yesterDay.


I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

Because Kath already had a vote--no point my talking all day about the two of you being my chief suspects and then splittimg the vote! To use a politics analogy, this isn't ranked choice voting.

[Thinlómien]

++Formendacil

I find him more suspicious than anyone else who's got votes so far (Kath, Nilp, Mac) or other people who have been heavily suspected (Nog).

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)

15 to go.

[Nogrod]

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?

You could have thought about it earlier, y'know?

What about Form?

[Nogrod]

Looking at the brigth side of things: people in the Game Thread probably have something to chew toMorrow...

[Pitchwife]

Ok, the cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, but I'm still not going to vote with someone I feel is not on our side.


So as not to throw away my vote again, I could vote for any of Form, Nog or Nilp (Form only as a last resort, as I think he's most likely the cobbler). See no reason to vote for Mac.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What about Form?

Like I said, he'd be my tier 2 suspect (alongside Brinn).

And if there is no way Legate is going to be lynched, I'd hate to waste my vote just to prove something.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whoa, this got really wide really fast.

I am also not entirely sure about where that Kathwagon came from. I mean, her vote was potentially incriminating (even though I would argue there are others in worse positions). And I am triple not sure what to make of BG's continuing vote for Form. It seems to me like BG is just sliding with the obvious.

I'd probably still be the most comfortable with Nog. Form might be an option, although I really don't know what to make of the whole thing with BG's vote too...

Nilp's vote is atm puzzling me because of its reasoning, but no time to dissect it now.

[Thinlómien]

9 votes to go, 9 minutes. I predict mess.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My brain hurts.

I would like to find some other candidates but Legate, but how do you make an educated inference in 15 minutes, in this situation?

If you hadn't spent the Day stubbornly chasing one theory

But I'm feeling similar at the moment.